I don't use to play Even Chances,.. but i tried this thing, and it seems to work: (RNG)
After a series of same EC (two or more), when the color change, I bet for the same color to appear again
For an example RRRRRB <- trigger, now I bet for Black to appear again.
OOOOOOE <- trigger, now I bet for Even to appear again
This works
Quote from: ignatus on Aug 15, 01:30 PM 2013
This works
Do we need any progressions ignatus? Which one do you recommend? :love:
QuoteThis works
Be ready for the flip flop, it can last over 15 spins, but you are on the right track, LOL, it's the best you've done so far Ignatus, pick your entry points, don't be scared to drop to your base unit when its flip flopping, wait it out and when it runs again, increase to recoiver, but don't be greedy, do it gradually, good luck mate
Hi Ignatus . . .
In the past I have tested several singles vs series on all 3 EC.
Enclosed is a RNG spreadsheet that tests exactly your selection on all 3 EC.
Simple press Function Key F9 to get another set of spins.
You can Flat Bet or insert whatever negative progression you choose.
Hope this helps.
Nick
Thanks
Oh finally you are on the right track!!! :thumbsup:
Keep in mind that correlations between series and singles are same as between R and B.
You will have twice less each serie of serie before. In other words you will have twice less doubles then singles, twice less series of 3 then series of 2 and so on. It is so called "law of the series" which is compound due to probability of those events...
But every other correlation works on the same principles too. I mean singles of two vs series of series of two or ANY other length serie..
Now the thing is that becomes very complicated to track and recognize (manually). But you have nice programing skills and you could make some tracker for that purpose.
Even all this as BS wont win by itself, but it should give less volatility and better chance for fighting with good MM.
Then comes also very important part of using progression and MM. Take some mild progression and don't rush. Lot of patience and sooner or later you should come of top in each session you play.
Best
Drazen
I don't understand what you're saying ! ;D But thanks anyway...Good responses from both superman and Drazen, then i must be into something 8) yes, this is a good bet I had luck with it...
Quote from: ignatus on Aug 16, 05:07 AM 2013
I don't understand what you're saying ! ;D But thanks anyway...Good responses from both superman and Drazen, then i must be into something 8) yes, this is a good bet I had luck with it...
Nice work ignatus..but may i just hijack your post
@drazen
So if we had a chop RBRB then RRB...if we saw B we could predict change because the RRBB series was 2 timrs less than the chop
so......RBRBRRBB bet B.....if R.....B again because we don't expect RBRBRRBBRR
Or am i confused
Hi Ignatus
Great that u are finally focussing on EC's as they are in my opinion the best to win the game; I Totally agree with Drazen
with proper bet selection and good MM you will come on top of each session u play; Keep on digging and I'm sure u will
strike gold mate ;-)
Here is a progression strategy for you
Ignatus. (Congratulations by the way :d)
1,(retrack)2,(retrack)4,(retrack)8,(retrack) 16 (stop)
Quote from: Turner on Aug 16, 06:01 AM 2013
So if we had a chop RBRB then RRB...if we saw B we could predict change because the RRBB series was 2 timrs less than the chop
so......RBRBRRBB bet B.....if R.....B again because we don't expect RBRBRRBBRR
Or am i confused
Turner, based on what I have seen related to the tests am doing with respect to "when", for such a small set of data you cannot expect anything. It could go either way.
Only when you have a sizeable set of data, anywhere between 100-200 spins, this correction is prominent. Until then, it is too few outcomes to see any meaningful correction occurring.
Ignoring that this is a small set, "RBRB then RRB" then what?. There can be multiple trains of thoughts. One train of thought says that there are 4 singles and 1 double series. To get to a balance we should get a B. The second train of thought is looking for tipping the balance. 1 more double series will result in a balance and hence it should be R. The third one suggests that singles are prominent and the table is chopping and hence the next one should be R, as the series was a blip. So there can be a number of permutations and combinations and finally to me the whole thing is confusing and illogical.
Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on Aug 16, 07:37 AM 2013
1,(retrack)2,(retrack)4,(retrack)8,(retrack) 16 (stop)
Ignatus, I think this is the best progression strategy you can use for this method. Proof, how about 1,3,7,15. Very similar, even lesser drawdown, but you can capitalize on when you are getting those hits within the 4th attempt. I am sure Ignatus can vouch that most of the hits happen within 4 attempts of such tracking. ;D
Quote from: Turner on Aug 16, 06:01 AM 2013
So if we had a chop RBRB then RRB...if we saw B we could predict change because the RRBB series was 2 timrs less than the chop
so......RBRBRRBB bet B.....if R.....B again because we don't expect RBRBRRBBRR
Or am i confused
Well my friend but as I said, roulette sequence is made of more correlations than just series and singles, especially if you also take into account the series vs higher series (series of 2 vs series > 2, series of 3 vs series > 3 etc.. They are all linked to the same principles of probability.
Streaks/singles have the same relation to each other (probabilistically speaking) as reds do to blacks and it means you can also examine each side of the sequence independently of the other, so instead of R/B being one thing in the sequence, it's actually 3.
Simple example: something like RR B RRR BB RR B RRR BB RR B RR B RRR BB RRR B RR B, looking at the red side only, there are 9 series in a row. It is the 3.0 STD event and it has same value as serie of 9 reds in a row RRRRRRRRR or RBRBRBRBRB which is 9 singles in a row for example.
Same thing with higher series, but they are quite complicated to recognize manually, so some sort of a software tracker would be needed in my opinion. But it works the same.
From my experience it is better to bet on more of those "compund" events and switching them more often then chasing one, even STD on it can be huge.
There is a concept behind such kind of betting called diversification, which mathematicaly proves that it reduces variance. You can read on wikipedia about this. In other words, dont put all your eggs in one basket.
That should keep variance lower and give you better chance to fight with progressions and MM.
I hope that is now a bit clearer :)
Regards
Drazen
Thanks Drazen...but i am just trying to see if i had 1 example correct. I see there are many intertwined examples...but if i get just one right first....i can move on to the next place.
Quote from: Priyanka on Aug 16, 07:51 AM 2013
Ignatus, I think this is the best progression strategy you can use for this method. Proof, how about 1,3,7,15. Very similar,
Depending on the hit-rate (provided it is high
enough 80% or better) your suggestion would work.
From my experience hit-rates fluctuate
downward, so five or more attempts may be necessary.
Again it all depends on the hit-rate at the time.
Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on Aug 16, 07:37 AM 2013
Here is a progression strategy for you
Ignatus. (Congratulations by the way :d)
1,(retrack)2,(retrack)4,(retrack)8,(retrack) 16 (stop)
Thanks proof ;)
People
A small video with vocals would go a long way to showing this can be done in reality and not just in theory. That is, if anyone truly wants to teach the method. Not saying you can't do it; I'm asking if you truly want to disclose it.
Show us the thought process behind the bet and then the bet--win or lose.
And, no, you don't have to. No one is holding a gun to your head.
TCS
Test: Celtic Casino American Wheel-Friday, August 16,2013 @ 8:40am CDT USA
...8,5,35 (trigger)
Bet Low: 1.) 21(x)-10
-----------------Progression 2x----------------
...35,21(alreday spun)...34,18 (trigger)
Bet High: 2.) 23(win)+23(win)+20
-----------------Progression 1x----------------
...21,34,18,23(already spun-all red)...14,32,24 (trigger)
Bet Red: 3.) 11(x)-10
-----------------Progression 2x----------------
...24,11(alreday spun-all black)...19(trigger)
Bet Black: 4.) 10(win)+20
===========================================
+20--Hit rate 80% :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Thanks for testing proof. I've only played this on RNG, Good it preform well live also.
Thing is after a series of RRRRRB (bet black) what are the chances for a new series of RRRR to happen again? I think it's a slim chance that a new series of RRRRR will happen again, that's my experience anyway...
I've played this 3-4 times up to 100 units (1u bet) And I will play this for real next week
Cheers
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 16, 09:09 AM 2013
People
A small video with vocals would go a long way to showing this can be done in reality and not just in theory. That is, if anyone truly wants to teach the method. Not saying you can't do it; I'm asking if you truly want to disclose it.
Show us the thought process behind the bet and then the bet--win or lose.
And, no, you don't have to. No one is holding a gun to your head.
TCS
I think the 3SD guys wont go that far...
I know why. its a difficult concept to work with and takes a lot of study, and why do all the hard work, then just go tell someone who hasnt. Ive lived with it for 20 years in Chess clubs....
(Playing a much better player)...Why did I lose? ..."well, your development was behind, I had the space advantage and central control and my rook sack gave me a temporary local piece advantage on your Kingside...giving me a tempo extra for the remaining 15 moves."
Thanks!...giving his superior understanding of the game away....but actually, giving nothing away.
You dont need to know how an internal combustion engine works to go to Walmart for the weekly shop...but you do need to know all the internal workings of how to use 3SD / regression to the mean etc
I get the concept. I know 9 reds in 9 spins gives 3SD. I dont know what to do when we get to that stage.
Its all a bit esoteric and "could tell ya BUT then I'd have to kill ya"
But ...
stop whining Turner....get your finger out and get some studying done.
RK has brought forth Bayes SD/Z score post and I intend to read it. quite excited about the prospect.
Bayes is very giving and takes time to explain things in full. I have a lot of respect for his words.
@Ignatus
Trying to understand this, there are 2 ways. Which is yours?
You said
OOOOOOE <- trigger, now I bet for Even to appear again
So is that a) appear again next then retrack.....or b) just appear again some time in the future and keep betting until it does
a) RRRB (bet black) R lose RRB (bet black) R lose RB (bet black) R lose BBBR (bet red) R WIN
b) RRRB (bet black) R (bet black) R (bet black) R (bet black) B WIN
Turner: I'm not playing like proof, after a trigger i bet until hit. Why? Because i belive there is a slim chance repeats will happen again. Ofcourse it could happen, but what is certain in roulette?
Quote from: ignatus on Aug 16, 01:13 PM 2013
Turner: I'm not playing like proof, after a trigger i bet until hit. Why? Because i belive there is a slim chance repeats will happen again. Ofcourse it could happen, but what is certain in roulette?
Ignatus my friend....so to dot the i's and cross the t's, you play b)
yes
Quote from: Turner on Aug 16, 12:19 PM 2013
I get the concept. I know 9 reds in 9 spins gives 3SD. I don't know what to do when we get to that stage.
That's not a huge sampling on an EC ( I know you just threw it out as an example)...EC's are diametrically opposed to my mindset on this game...but if I was playing this scenario I would wait for the first black to hit and use a progression that let me play out the blacks to max out at the tracking sample and then use that as a stop-loss. Then if I was still in the red financially after the attack...start the next attack at a higher unit value maybe. It happens enough to beware that you could go 9 red...hit a black and then pop up a few more reds with a green or two thrown in just to really get your ire up.
So if it went 14 reds before the black hit I would use a 14 step progression (not a Marty) that would give me a decent chance at profitability...not flat betting...but 8 wins in 14 flat makes a little money (just not enough to warrant waiting for the trigger...not for me anyway). I like the Fibo and then determine how many steps back on a win. The other problem for me is this though...what if I win 3 straight right out of the gate and I am at a low bet size...I just won but I am moderately upset that I ONLY won so much after waiting so long. It would obviously be a good problem to be saddled with...but in my mind it's still an issue...for me anyway.
My whole philosophical problem with EC's is that there just isn't enough recovery power with the 1:1 payout if you get blasted out of the gate or if you are running a progression and get a run against you as you're struggling through some higher bets. You know it's gonna happen at some point...you just better have a Plan B when it does.
It's a game of waves and cycles...you can't hit 'em all perfect...but if you don't get slain along the way you can still make out just fine in the long haul by being steady. (Bet Selection, Bankroll, Stop Losses, Patience and Money Management...it's the same mantra all the time)
ignatus
You know your bet is almost like the Boffins.
I played the Boffins for quite a while. On all three ECs. It is quite rare to see XXYXY on all the ECs within seven tries. Normally, within seven tries you will see XXYXX and that makes you smile!!
I have paid Nick so much money for sheets, he is booking a cruise to New Mexico. So I'll wait a few days on this idea.
TCH
Tricky cruise Sam...up the Rio Grande? >:D
Bloviation to follow........WARNING!!
I once visited New Mexico and found a magazine with a feature called "ONE OF OUR FIFTY IS MISSING". It went into great detail about how ignorant people were about New Mexico. "Did you have to exchange your money?" "Did you go by boat or fly?" "Did you have to get all those yucky shots?"
It was a riot!! Seems a bunch of us don't know New Mexico is just East of Oklahoma!! Wait!! Let me get my map...
TCH