Monitor the 3 Even Chance sections - R/B, O/E, H/L - appearing in a row for 10,000 spins.
1. Start with a bankroll of 0 and track any EC that appears 2 times in a row before placing a single flat-bet of 1 unit on the opposite. Note the final bankroll after the 10,000 spins.
2. Repeat step 1 but track anything appearing 3 times in a row.
3. Repeat step 1 again and again for anything appearing 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 times in a row (and anything above that - sometimes up to 15 or 20).
Repeat the above 3 steps for 100K and 1 million spins (3 different ranges in total). I think it would be better to use the same spin data for all the tests.
At what point in any of those tests does the bankroll end up as a positive? Or does the bankroll always end up in a similar negative balance reflecting the house advantage?
This is not only to test Gambler's Fallacy, but also to test if flat-betting can be as effective as progressive betting. The tests could also be expanded further for flat-betting more than once after the trigger.
Giving this a full 20 seconds of thought if I had to create a method for betting the opposite on an EC after 2 hits for one spin
I would probably triple or quadruple my bet after each loss and see whether I wanted to combine all wagers into one string of bets or keep everything separate (high/ low running a separate progression from say red / black) and then I would drop back maybe three stages after a win and reboot from 1 once I was in plus (don't know where I would place a stop-loss on a run of losses and wait for a virtual win to re-enter)
But I would break out ALL the possible EC's I could reasonably manage
double streets (natural and the in-betweens)
streets
column segments
wheel sectors, etc
Theory being if I could break the table and also the wheel into enough different segments I could try to limit massive variance and without massive variance (and with a stop loss in there somewhere) the progression would work.
I don't play EC's so its my three minute theory now...but I think that's where I would start
Tested 3 Double Streets over 100K spins:
16 times in a row x 1
15 times in a row x 2
14 times in a row x 2
13 times in a row x 5
12 times in a row x 9
11 times in a row x 20
Going to analyse the 9 sets of 12 in a row next...
(link:://s1.postimg.org/fqwei3sv3/european_roulette.jpg)
9
32
9
18
19
17
19
17
17
32
29
9 (Spin 8259)
5 (Lose)
25 (Win)
9
32
29
20
5
19
32
16
31
30
7
9 (Spin 47839)
20 (Lose)
21 (Lose)
32
6
19
7
16
28
5
20
30
17
31
32 (Spin 51838)
19 (Lose)
30 (Lose)
20
9
7
9
28
33
9
29
32
6
16
30 (Spin 54150)
29 (Lose)
15 (Win)
16
19
28
28
18
18
31
28
32
8
20
16 (Spin 64077)
17 (Lose)
30 (Lose)
29
7
21
19
0
30
28
30
31
5
8
7
32 (Spin 78220)
34 (Win)
25 (Win)
7
18
28
4
5
20
28
33
4
31
9
7 (Spin 79960)
25 (Win)
19 (Lose)
29
31
9
16
8
29
8
8
20
33
5
7 (Spin 88326)
3 (Win)
12 (Win)
8
33
20
32
4
30
30
4
28
28
32
5 (Spin 93336)
3 (Win)
11 (Win)
Flat Bet x 1
-1
Flat Bet x 2
0
Progression - 2 steps
-3
will attach results
will attach results
will attach results
will attach results
will attach results
will attach results
There's 1 bug with zero, but apart from that it seems to be working pretty well! :)
I will attach them all as they take up too much space on here.
Results here for 100K - 16 in a row down to 8 in a row.
Some VERY interesting results here! 7-10 in a row are all coming back with a profit for a 2 step progressions @ 100K spins! Yet, 1-6 and 11-16 are negative!
Going to test 7-10 over 1 million spins next @ 2 steps.
Yes you will find that 1 double street from each dozen is the best EC bet. People will disagree and that is fine. Over 1 million spins you may see a long losing streak BUT the long losing streaks are few and far between and not as frequent as the other ECs
They all got killed off at 1 million, so it seems to the only sure fire way to beat this is to see a progression through till the end - but allow for plenty of extra steps in case of really bad luck!
No one plays roulette for 1 million spins in a row, so why test for 1 million spins......lol lol??
All I can say is that I have been playing 3 DS for years and I have milked tons of $ from
Mr Casino playing this way .....lol lol
1,000 spin testing.....losses never exceed 10 in a row
One million is too unrealistic
I've always thought it was best to test what you would play......
If you can sit for 100 spins, test for 100 spins, you can still get to the million if you wish just with smaller sessions.
O0
This might be proof that Gambler's Fallacy is nonsense! If you monitor the totals it seems you can predict when more wins are due in! So this is perfect for systems like Reverse Labby. And by monitoring the number of appearances in a row you can extend your progressions to overcome losing streaks. I am tweaking this right now for optimum profit and then I will test it over - yep you guessed it - 1 million spins!
This system could make you a millionaire! :xd:
Regarding Gambler's Fallacy, I personally believe that 2 events on the board are indeed unrelated - but it's the act of observing or recording a result that counts, i.e. Quantum Mechanics. Perhaps the best way to beat roulette might be to play multiple tables at once (all practise tables except one real table).
This was an interesting one... WOW!
9 (2 Triple Double Streets in a row @ spin 12885) DS Total: 6336 Rest of the board: 6209
29 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 1 profit: -1
Progression x 1 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 1 profit: -1
Flat-bet Total: -1, Progression Total: -1, Riding Progression Total: -1
Flat-bet Grand Total: 6, Progression Grand Total: 0, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1662
35 (Win)
Flat-bet x 2 profit: +1
Progression x 2 profit: 2
Riding Progression x 2 profit: 2
Flat-bet Total: 0, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 1
Flat-bet Grand Total: 7, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1664
1 (Win)
Flat-bet x 3 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 3 profit: 4
Flat-bet Total: 1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 5
Flat-bet Grand Total: 8, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1668
24 (Win)
Flat-bet x 4 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 4 profit: 8
Flat-bet Total: 2, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 13
Flat-bet Grand Total: 9, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1676
16 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 5 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 5 profit: -16
Flat-bet Total: 1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -3
Flat-bet Grand Total: 8, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1660
28 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 6 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 6 profit: -32
Flat-bet Total: 0, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -35
Flat-bet Grand Total: 7, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1628
11 (Win)
Flat-bet x 7 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 7 profit: 64
Flat-bet Total: 1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 29
Flat-bet Grand Total: 8, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1692
34 (Win)
Flat-bet x 8 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 8 profit: 128
Flat-bet Total: 2, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 157
Flat-bet Grand Total: 9, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1820
16 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 9 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 9 profit: -256
Flat-bet Total: 1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -99
Flat-bet Grand Total: 8, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1564
31 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 10 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 10 profit: -512
Flat-bet Total: 0, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -611
Flat-bet Grand Total: 7, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 1052
5 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 11 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 11 profit: -1024
Flat-bet Total: -1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -1635
Flat-bet Grand Total: 6, Progression Grand Total: 2, Riding Progression Grand Total: 28
what does that all mean falkor
It means that it can be defeated by the worst losing streak and still come out with a profit!
can you explain progression, etc?
Right now it's just using a martingale progression regardless of win/loss for a set number of spins, but I will eventually adapt it for the Reverse Labby progression - or something that's effective when you are betting even money and know that you will get more wins in total.
i never understood reverse labby
it is a positive progression
id probably let my bets ride on wins and play a positive progression that way. or guetting
Check this out... this made 31K in 1,100,000 spins just on 1 EC bet after I stopped resetting the Grand Total counters every 100K spins. Total Wins: 489, Total Losses: 457
Here was the final set played:
33 (3 Triple Double Streets in a row @ spin 14532) DS Total: 7128 Rest of the board: 7013
36 (Win)
Flat-bet x 1 profit: +1
Progression x 1 profit: 1
Riding Progression x 1 profit: 1
Flat-bet Total: 1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 1
Flat-bet Grand Total: 30, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31306
25 (Win)
Flat-bet x 2 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 2 profit: 2
Flat-bet Total: 2, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 3
Flat-bet Grand Total: 31, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31308
32 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 3 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 3 profit: -4
Flat-bet Total: 1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -1
Flat-bet Grand Total: 30, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31304
1 (Win)
Flat-bet x 4 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 4 profit: 8
Flat-bet Total: 2, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 7
Flat-bet Grand Total: 31, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31312
18 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 5 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 5 profit: -16
Flat-bet Total: 1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -9
Flat-bet Grand Total: 30, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31296
4 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 6 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 6 profit: -32
Flat-bet Total: 0, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -41
Flat-bet Grand Total: 29, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31264
14 (Win)
Flat-bet x 7 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 7 profit: 64
Flat-bet Total: 1, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 23
Flat-bet Grand Total: 30, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31328
25 (Win)
Flat-bet x 8 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 8 profit: 128
Flat-bet Total: 2, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 151
Flat-bet Grand Total: 31, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31456
13 (Win)
Flat-bet x 9 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 9 profit: 256
Flat-bet Total: 3, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 407
Flat-bet Grand Total: 32, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31712
2 (Win)
Flat-bet x 10 profit: +1
Riding Progression x 10 profit: 512
Flat-bet Total: 4, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: 919
Flat-bet Grand Total: 33, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 32224
20 (Lose)
Flat-bet x 11 profit: -1
Riding Progression x 11 profit: -1024
Flat-bet Total: 3, Progression Total: 1, Riding Progression Total: -105
Flat-bet Grand Total: 32, Progression Grand Total: 86, Riding Progression Grand Total: 31200
as in letting winning bets ride
Yep - all other progressions are only designed for losing streaks (or to handle more losses than wins). With my system we need to use positive progression otherwise you will be waiting a long time and not make enough money.
you may lose more bets than win though.
do you let it ride once and then reset?
Look above though - there are always more wins than losses because of the tracking!
Right now its just using 11 steps Martingale regardless of win/losses, so resets after the 10th double-up.
the losing streaks are rare with this
the worst part is waiting for 4 or 5 losses in a row, can take forever.
the best way i found to play it it wait for a few virtual losses then flat bet it 5 times. if up wait for another trigger. if down, double up and flat bet it another 5 times
wait for some virtual losses then:
1 1 1 1 1 if down move up
2 2 2 2 2 if down move up
3 3 3 3 3 if down move up
4 4 4 4 4 if down move up
It won't take forever by the time I've finished designing this system. Here we are only testing the concept of Gambler's Fallacy - past data doesn't affect the future - but it seems it does!
See attached: I've now doubled the amount of wins per 1 mill (Total Wins: 974, Total Losses: 973). If that progression was played right it would be capitalising on all these wins.
You can see that flat betting does not make the same as parlay type bets when we know more wins will result.
I think waiting for 4 virtual losses then flat betting 5 times would work. Id like to see that tested