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Roulette-focused => The Notepad => Topic started by: Randominator on Dec 19, 04:10 PM 2014

Title: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 19, 04:10 PM 2014
Hello to everyone!

I have been looking into cycles of lines lately and think there are a lot of profitable bets within.

First thing - i think people make mistake by using artificial cycles in their play.

Cycle shouldn't be defined as the static number of spins arbitrary defined by player.

Length of cycle is defined by an event. Cycle is finished (over) only when event happens, and only then new cycle begins.

So if we observe standard 6 lines (doublestreets), what events do you think could define a natural cycle for lines?
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 19, 05:08 PM 2014
Quote from: Randominator on Dec 19, 04:10 PM 2014
Cycle shouldn't be defined as the static number of spins arbitrary defined by player.

Interesting idea!

Welcome to the Forum, Ramdominator!

Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 20, 09:05 AM 2014
Thanks psimoes!

No ideas guys? Ok, let me tell you what i think. Let's get to basics.

We all know standard question concerning cycles: How many numbers will appear during cycle of 37 spins on average?

Or standard one for lines: How many lines will appear during cycle of 6 spins on average?

Let's rephrase those questions in order to find out more about natural cycles:

How many spins on average takes for all 37 numbers to appear? How many spins on average takes for all 6 lines to appear?

What's the problem then? Number can sleep for a long, long time. 6 numbers also. Small number of cycles during a session.

That should concern us only if our bet depends on that last number/line. So in term of lines how can we shorten the average natural cycle?
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 21, 10:54 AM 2014
I found some interesting consistencies within the game after analyzing 500+ natural cycles.

As an event i chose appearance of 5th unique line, like this: 6355314 - cycle finished, start new cycle.

So how long does it usually take for a 5th line to show in your tests?
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 28, 05:35 AM 2014
Here are some stats guys. Real wiesbaden sessions, numbers represent spin number when 5th line appeared, thus length of cycle in spins.

0 counted as spin. Sessions attached.

Session 01

5
8
15
16
13
8
7
9
8
11
8
18
13
7
8
18
7
10
12
8
11
5

Session 02

7
6
6
6
6
7
5
10
13
7
13
14
8
6
5
9
16
8
6
5
5
14
8
6
6
13
10
11
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 28, 09:33 AM 2014
Can you include the number of spins a fourth DS took to appear per each cycle? So that we knew if betting on Last Four DSs would be worth it.

Like, for Session 01:

5, 4 - Five unique DS appeared - the fourth appeared at spin 4. Since the last spin of every cycle is a Loss, this one would be, well, a Loss.
8, 6 - Fourth DS appeared at spin 6, Betting Last 4 is a Win on spin 7, a Loss on spin 8.
15, 9 - We start betting at spin 10, a Loss at spin 15, therefore 5 Wins, 1 Loss.
16, 7 - Bet SAL4 at spin 8, WWWWWWWWL

And so on. There would be 6 zeros avg (225 spins / 37 ). Adding to 22 end of cycles there would be 28 Losses. If total Wins  are greater than double losses flat-betting, it should be a winning session.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 28, 10:07 AM 2014
Of course psimoes, that's something i was planing to do. Not only 4th ds but also 3rd and 2nd in order to fully grasp the cycle and find some averages. Many bets can be constructed within cycle. I will soon post it.

P.S. In my previous post, along with stats i attached those 2 sessions but they are still waiting to be approved by mod. 
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Colbster on Dec 28, 10:21 AM 2014
I approved them - I approved the message but didn't see the attachments.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 28, 10:27 AM 2014
Thank you Colbster. Here it is. Spins when 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th line appeared.

01


2   3   4   5
2   3   5   8
4   7   9   15
2   3   5   16
3   4   5   13
3   4   5   8
2   4   6   7
2   3   6   9
2   3   5   8
2   4   7   11
2   3   4   8
4   5   7   18
2   4   7   13
2   3   6   7
2   4   7   8
2   3   4   18
2   4   5   7
2   5   6   10
3   7   10   12
2   3   4   8
3   4   10   11
2   3   4   5


02


2   3   6   7
2   3   4   6
2   3   5   6
2   3   5   6
2   3   4   6
3   4   6   7
2   3   4   5
2   3   9   10
2   5   8   13
3   4   5   7
2   3   11   13
2   5   9   14
2   3   5   8
2   4   5   6
2   3   4   5
3   6   8   9
2   5   6   16
2   3   4   8
3   4   5   6
2   3   4   5
2   3   4   5
2   3   6   14
2   3   6   8
2   3   4   6
3   4   5   6
2   3   4   13
2   3   8   10
2   3   4   11
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 28, 10:39 AM 2014
Thanks! Good work! A quick look and the gap ratio seems to increase each time a new DS appears but I could be wrong. Where's the coffee...
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 28, 11:09 AM 2014
Here's the gaps between DSs for Session 01. The 1s are obviously immediate losses. Betting SAL4 still looking good...

1 1 1 1
1 1 2 3
3 3 2 6
1 1 2 11
2 1 1 8
2 1 1 3
1 2 2 1
1 1 3 3
1 1 3 9
1 1 2 3
1 2 3 4
1 1 1 4
3 1 2 11
1 2 3 6
1 1 3 1
1 2 3 1
1 1 1 14
1 2 1 2
1 3 1 4
2 4 3 2
1 1 3 4
2 1 6 1
1 1 1 1
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 28, 11:17 AM 2014
103 total spins between DS4 and DS5. If we subtract the 28 losses it gives 75 wins! 75 - (28*2)= 19u profit for that session!

Edit - I included the 6 zeros in the losses but those were avg for 225/37. Since we lose to the zeros only when betting it should be (103/37)=2.7 (hmm...) zeros instead. Less three losses, therefore 22 wins estimate. Not bad for ONE session...
We could obviously stop at a better point. After analysing a significant number of sessions we could determine an optimal StopWin before it goes the descending curve.

We could also note the highest rate of 1s (immediate losses) and see if betting DTL would be worth it (in this situation each 1 would represent a win)...
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Rewster88 on Dec 28, 11:47 AM 2014
What is sal4?
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 28, 11:53 AM 2014
Here SAL4 is Same As Last 4 Double Streets.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: wiggy on Dec 28, 12:30 PM 2014
It's an interesting idea. I like the look of betting for the 5th DS to appear because it means playing only two DS's.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 28, 12:43 PM 2014
Quote from: wiggy on Dec 28, 12:30 PM 2014
It's an interesting idea.
It looks very promising and my guess it shouldn't be difficult to code.
QuoteI like the look of betting for the 5th DS to appear because it means playing only two DS's.  :thumbsup:
What do you mean?
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Chris555p on Dec 28, 12:55 PM 2014
@Wiggy - Yes can u provide détails as to which DS will u bet....??; for how many
attempts etc.... Thanks.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: wiggy on Dec 28, 01:31 PM 2014
I ran a few tests and early results indicate the 8th and 9th spin would be a good time to play for the 5th DS. Any 5th DS appearing before the 8th spin obviously gets discounted and you would need to retrack. It's a loss of 4 units if no win on the 8th and 9th spin because you are placing a chip each on the two missing DS's for two spins. A win would bring either a 4 unit win on spin 8 or a 2 unit win on spin 9. That's flat betting of course.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: wiggy on Dec 28, 01:49 PM 2014
1)5=1
2)2=2
3)6=3
4)1=4
5)4=5
---
6)4=1
7)4=1
8)2=2
9)4=2
10)3=3
11)4=3
12)1=4
13)2=4 bet ds 5+6 lose -2.
14)3=4 bet ds 5+6 lose -2. keep tracking till 5th ds appears.
15)1=4
16)5=5
---
17)2=1
18)3=2
19)1=3
20)4=4
21)3=4
22)5=5
---
23)2=1
24)6=2
25)3=3
26)3=3
27)4=4
28)5=5
---
29)5=1
30)2=2
31)5=2
32)5=2
33)3=3
34)2=3
35)4=4
36)1=5 bet ds 1+6 win +4.
---
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: buffalowizard on Dec 28, 03:02 PM 2014
I did something similar a few years back chasing 3 street sectors of 9 numbers. I tried to hit between say spin 8-11 or whatever the optimum gap is. The trouble is when you get for example a 12,15 and 18 in a row but it can be a profitable concept

BW
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 28, 03:55 PM 2014
Betting last 2 dozens until 3rd hits then start new cycle, also gives good results, but the hitrate for DSs still seems better. The odds are the same but the tracking is different, since with DSs we don't wait for a 6th DS to restart. Must be messing with the cycles or something. When a dormant 6th DS finally appears it could be counted as 1st, 2nd, 3rd DS etc. I really like this.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 29, 03:56 AM 2014
Quote from: Randominator on Dec 28, 10:07 AM 2014
Many bets can be constructed within cycle. I will soon post it.

Randominator, what other bets do you have in mind?

Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 29, 04:03 AM 2014
Quote from: wiggy on Dec 28, 12:30 PM 2014
It's an interesting idea. I like the look of betting for the 5th DS to appear because it means playing only two DS's.  :thumbsup:

Wiggy, after testing several sessions that didn't go so well, waiting for a 4th DS then betting the remaining two DSs seems a viable option, yes.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 29, 05:02 AM 2014
Quote from: psimoes on Dec 29, 04:03 AM 2014
Wiggy, after testing several sessions that didn't go so well, waiting for a 4th DS then betting the remaining two DSs seems a viable option, yes.

As Wiggy, I also came to conclusion that on average 5th line appears roughly around 9th spin. In 65% of cases it hits within 9 spins (5-9 spin).

I recommend using excel for writing cycles. Functions help a lot. To get rough averages add all spin numbers for certain line (5th, 4th...) and divide them with number of cycles. It's around 9 for 5th.

As for other bets, we can also play EC bet around 4th line.

So far i think few no win-no lose bets can be found with this approach (if there is such a thing).
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 29, 09:06 AM 2014
Quote from: Randominator on Dec 29, 05:02 AM 2014
As for other bets, we can also play EC bet around 4th line.

Yes. One more question: playing ECs wouldn't you then retrack for natural cycles of 4ths or still wait for a 5th?

P.S.- Thanks for the Excel tips!
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 29, 11:30 AM 2014
Quote from: psimoes on Dec 29, 09:06 AM 2014
Yes. One more question: playing ECs wouldn't you then retrack for natural cycles of 4ths or still wait for a 5th?

P.S.- Thanks for the Excel tips!

I tried to shorten the cycle, you get more chances to bet EC but then i would lose opportunity to bet second bet. I think that strength lies in combo. EC and then 4 or 2 lines at the end of cycle.

Also, WL registry should prove to be more interesting, i recommend writing it down.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 29, 11:53 AM 2014
Got it. Thanks.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: klw on Dec 29, 01:02 PM 2014
Here is the post I made recently on Warrior's thread.



"  I thought you were going to make us all millionaires Falkor lol Oh well !

I've done my own limited testing on this and it may be slightly different to what falkor is doing but hopefully the data will be explained in a more helpful way as I find it very difficult to decipher some of falkor's tests and I simply don't have the time or energy to wade through it all ( no disrespect to you Falkor as I can see the effort you have put into this )

I've only managed a few thousand spins so far by my pen and paper method , I know it's not enough for the million + spins guys but it gives me an idea of what to look for. ( live spins )

I'm looking for a second hit on a double street to close that street regardless of whether its a repeat number or not, so 2nd hit and it is closed.

I wait for the first double street to hit and then look at the intervals between each of the remaining 5 unclosed double streets to close ( get a second hit )

In all my tests so far there is always at least 1 double street that closes within 3 spins of the last double street to close, in most cases there is always 1 double street that closes within 2 spins of a double street closing but those few that go to a third spin can be the killers ( or not ) to the system.

It is too difficult in my opinion to calculate when we will get the 2/3 spin interval between double streets closing , certainly a long interval lets say between double streets 3 and 4 closing does lead to a small advantage that DS 5 may have our target 2/3 spin interval but this is not always the case , so the alternative may be to just attack the open double streets ( and any that subsequently open ) for our 2/3 spin target only,after each double street closes. This will involve a progression as remember the 2/3 spin target interval could be between double street 5 and 6 closing by which time the sums involved could be big.

These are an example of intervals for the six double streets to close :-

DS1     5
DS2     5
DS3     4
DS4     1
DS5     19
DS6     x          ( did not close in my 37 spin session )

So in the above we would have to wait until DS4 closes to hit our target. Each attack after a double street closes will have a differing amount of open double streets to bet on,so as falkor stated in his last post we need a progression calculator or a very quick maths mind to calculate bets as we go along.

I'm not sure after all this work that this system is for me in this format. I have also looked at trying to capture repeat numbers as part of the second hit of a double street and was having some success until the variance caught up and also trying to cross reference attacks with sweet spots for a certain double street to hit as I mentioned in the early part of the thread. An example being the 4th double street to close, I would be looking at spins 13 - 17 as a sweet spot. Needs more work as usual.

Would love to hear other people's opinions on this, I hope it generates more ideas.

Apologies if this steps on your toes falkor , just throwing out some work I've done on the subject even if it's already what you've covered.

Merry Christmas to all.  "


So a quick summary --- When a double street gets hit for a second time,this is a close , we then bet any open double street(s) for 2/3 spins max. , we either win within our 2/3 spins or wait until the next double street closes ( hits for a second time ) and re-commence betting on any open double street(s) and so on until all 6 double streets have closed.Quite often you will get 2 double streets closing within 1 spin of each other, most of the time within 2 spins and in my tests always within 3 spins , however , we don't know when this interval between 2 double streets closing will happen, it could be between double streets 1 and 2 or it could be between double streets 5 and 6 but it will happen. Betting involves a progression most of the time. Cycle would end when our 2/3 spin interval between double streets closing occurs.

Just a working theory at the moment.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 29, 01:43 PM 2014
klw, this is not my thread but I think what you posted bears little or no relation to what's being discussed here...
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: klw on Dec 29, 03:16 PM 2014
Quote from: psimoes on Dec 29, 01:43 PM 2014
klw, this is not my thread but I think what you posted bears little or no relation to what's being discussed here...

That's a matter of opinion psimoes. Randominator asked for cycles using lines which is what I have done. If he wants me to move on or just discuss the idea on offer so far then I will gladly move on.

Cheers.

Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 29, 10:09 PM 2014
Sure. Opinions aren´t facts so apologies in advance if I´m proven wrong.

Well, the idea here seems to be about  DS cycles in sequential order, that is, how many spins in average DS2 takes to hit, then DS3, DS4 and finally DS5. If we find the average we could for instance "know" for how many spins we bet DS1 and DS2 before DS3 hits, then for how many spins DS 1+2+3 before DS4 hits and so on, or even just betting on, say DS2+3, and  then wait until DS5 hits to start a new cycle.

The Warrior/Falkor thread seemed to focus differently. Here I presume we don´t care if DS1 hits 2 times; we keep betting on it and whatother DSs until say DS4 hits. And DS5 always closes the cycle. This I think is a key point. There´s no DS6. DS6 could be DS3 in the next cycle for all we care. This seemingly relates more to what´s discussed on the Are there really 37 outcomes? thread.

Don´t mean to sound arrogant or something; all this is to clear some confusion the Warrior/falkor thread might bring. But then, this is in the Notepad section so yeah all contributions are welcome.

Cheers.

Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 29, 10:27 PM 2014
This evening at the B&M while playing another method couldn´t stop noticing how I could have made a small profit playing dozens as I mentioned earlier in the thread:

Dz

1
1
3 bet Dz 1&3
3 W
1 W
3 W
2 L - retrack
2
2
0
1 bet 2&1
2 W
1 W
0 L
2 W
1 W
3 L - retrack
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 30, 09:57 AM 2014
Quote from: klw on Dec 29, 03:16 PM 2014
That's a matter of opinion psimoes. Randominator asked for cycles using lines which is what I have done. If he wants me to move on or just discuss the idea on offer so far then I will gladly move on.

Cheers.

Hi klw. Yes i have seen warriors thread and it made me revisit natural cycles, which i have been tempering with year ago.

My version is downgraded (first level) version of what you suggest. Basically, you bet doublestreets which had 1 appearance, i bet those with 0. You cancel those with 2 hits, i cancel those with 1. Some combination of versions can be a good thing. You could earn few units with my version  while you wait your trigger, i could recover some loses with your version if i extend the cycle. I will address some of warriors thoughts in my later posts.

Share your ideas freely. Cycles are very abstract because they are overlapping. One man's beginning other man's end.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Dec 30, 11:25 AM 2014
Here are some stats for 400 cycles, around 3500 spins:

rough average of spin on which 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5h ds hit -  2.23     3.82    5.86    8.93

so gaps average would be   2-3: 1.59 ,  3-4: 2.04,  4-5:  3.07

2nd line appeared most times on 2nd spin (324) and 3rd spin (62)

3rd line on  3rd (212) 4th (103) 5th (55)

4th line on  4th (98)  5th (104) 6th (84) 7th (55)

5th line in  5th (36) 6th (63) 7th (62) 8th (55) 9th (47)
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 30, 02:16 PM 2014
Quote from: Randominator on Dec 30, 11:25 AM 2014
Here are some stats for 400 cycles, around 3500 spins:

rough average of spin on which 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5h ds hit -  2.23     3.82    5.86    8.93

so gaps average would be   2-3: 1.59 ,  3-4: 2.04,  4-5:  3.07

2nd line appeared most times on 2nd spin (324) and 3rd spin (62)

3rd line on  3rd (212) 4th (103) 5th (55)

4th line on  4th (98)  5th (104) 6th (84) 7th (55)

5th line in  5th (36) 6th (63) 7th (62) 8th (55) 9th (47)

OK, what advantage can we take, line after line... at first after DS1, betting all other DS hoping DS2 hits the next spin looks a sure bet. 324 spins vs 62 seem to prove it. A Loss means less 5 units therefore we need 5 Wins to recover. So 62*5=310; 324-310=14 to our advantage in 3500 spins. Only that 3500/14=250; 250/100=2.5 still below House Edge. Am I doing this right? Better move onto the next stat.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 31, 12:41 PM 2014
The 250/100 doesn't compute the edge. Don't know why it made sense at the time, but it doesn't anymore. Anyway, there should be around 95 zeros, but we won't be exposed at all of them unless we bet for 3500 spins. Which will not happen. Too confusing right now so I'll do as everybody else and ignore the zero for now.

Quoterough average of spin on which 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5h ds hit -  2.23     3.82    5.86    8.93

So far the strategy I can see ATM is kind of crazy. Please note this is the Notepad:

1. We wait or look at past history to start a new cycle. If ... DS5, DS2. Or ... DS5, DS6. Or ... DS5, DS5 we can start immediately (that DS2, "DS6" or the repeating DS5 will be our DS1).

2. DS2 has a good chance (I'm counting one spin as 100% so 1-0.23=77%) of hitting right on the next spin. So we could bet all 5 DS to win 1 unit or lose 5 units. 5/6 looks like a no-brainer but the price of a loss is higher than the 77% advantage: 83%. If we win we note DS2 and proceed. If we lose, don't bet until DS2 hits and try to recover later on during the cycle.

3. DS2 hits on the second spin. Now we bet DS1 and DS2 for one spin because there's a good chance DS3 hits on the fourth spin (82%). If we win, we win 4 units.

4. DS3 hits and we can bet DS1, DS2 and DS3 for one spin.

5. After DS4 hits, we can bet DS1, DS2, DS3 and DS4 for three spins (from 5.86 to 8.93).

6. Now we bet the remaining two DS until DS5 hits. Then we restart the cycle.

It's crazy I know. Don't test this with real money.

Recap:

Spin 1: DS1. nb
Spin 2: Bet remaining 5 DS DTL
Spin 3: Bet DS1, DS2 or wait until DS3 shows
Spin 4: Bet DS1, DS2, DS3.
Spin 5: Bet DS1, DS2, DS3, DS4
Spin 6: Same as above
Spin 7: Same
Spin 8: Bet remaining two, unhit DS
Spin X: End. Repeat.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 31, 01:57 PM 2014
Of course we are free to bet when we want, but so far betting at every stage of the cycles it's doing well on RNG. And you know how those things behave. 100% winners were spin 2, spins 5, 6 & 7. Spin 8 always wins too, but didn't last for more than 2 spins max. That's when DS5 hits.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 31, 02:09 PM 2014
Quote from: klw on Dec 29, 03:16 PM 2014
That's a matter of opinion psimoes. Randominator asked for cycles using lines which is what I have done. If he wants me to move on or just discuss the idea on offer so far then I will gladly move on.

Cheers.

I eat crow here. Nothing wrong with combining ideas. Cheers!
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: klw on Dec 31, 03:37 PM 2014
Quote from: psimoes on Dec 31, 02:09 PM 2014
I eat crow here. Nothing wrong with combining ideas. Cheers!

No need to eat crow psimoes lol. Just glad the info. I supplied could help,that was the intention of supplying that data from the beginning.

Just 1 thing , when you have some time , any chance of a step by step clear instructions on what your new method is ? I'm afraid I'm one of those not so clever posters who needs more explanation before the penny drops.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Dec 31, 04:15 PM 2014
Sure klw. For the record it's not a method yet, just brainstorming over the original posted idea and the stats provided. Too soon to bet real money on this AFAIC the math could be wrong. I'll post a more detailed explanation later. Next year more likely LOL.

Till then. Happy New Year to ALL!
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Jan 01, 07:35 AM 2015
Happy new year guys! May your betting in 2015 be safe, boring, predictable and profitable!

Quote from: psimoes on Dec 30, 02:16 PM 2014
OK, what advantage can we take, line after line... at first after DS1, betting all other DS hoping DS2 hits the next spin looks a sure bet. 324 spins vs 62 seem to prove it. A Loss means less 5 units therefore we need 5 Wins to recover. So 62*5=310; 324-310=14 to our advantage in 3500 spins. Only that 3500/14=250; 250/100=2.5 still below House Edge. Am I doing this right? Better move onto the next stat.

Sorry psimoes, those stats are just spins with most hits out of 400 cycles.

So it would be like this 400 - 324 - 62 = 14

In 14 cycles 2nd line appeared after spin 3 (so few times on 4th, few times on 5th spin etc.)

For 3rd line it would be 400-212-103-55=30 (in 30 cycles 3rd appeared after 5th spin).

I posted only most relevant, we are not generaly interested in extremes.

It's like this:

324 W : 76 L = 324 - 380 = -56

So betting against 1st line on 5 others isn't something i would see as profitable.

Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: Randominator on Jan 01, 07:46 AM 2015
Quote from: psimoes on Dec 31, 12:41 PM 2014

Spin 1: DS1. nb
Spin 2: Bet remaining 5 DS DTL
Spin 3: Bet DS1, DS2 or wait until DS3 shows
Spin 4: Bet DS1, DS2, DS3.
Spin 5: Bet DS1, DS2, DS3, DS4
Spin 6: Same as above
Spin 7: Same
Spin 8: Bet remaining two, unhit DS
Spin X: End. Repeat.

Now this is a good way of thinking. Riding on repeats but anticipate the change.

I had best results so far with similar kind of play. 2 3 4 5 doesn't come too often so we could profit on repeats before profiting on change. Warrior also mentions this:

"Repeats and changes of number make this bet win"

"So if all lines show at once I'm either on 2 of them or 3 of them to corner the bet for there changing numbers or catch the repeat . Now this is a HUGE TIP USE IT OR LOSE IT LOL."

Knowing when to ride and when to change is the key. Perhaps this can be achieved by observing stats. Warrior mentioned "formula".


Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Jan 01, 02:05 PM 2015
You're right about including 400 cycles. If we are betting once per cycle, that means 400 bets to account for!

QuoteSo it would be like this 400 - 324 - 62 = 14

In 14 cycles 2nd line appeared after spin 3 (so few times on 4th, few times on 5th spin etc.)

This means, since there's no sign of DS3 yet, that DS1 is repeating (or, a zero hits).

QuoteIt's like this:

324 W : 76 L = 324 - 380 = -56

Or as I prefer:

76*5=380 units lost against 324 won.

So, does this mean we'd better bet for a repeat of DS1? LOL

400/56=7.1%... it's more than double the house edge. Since it's about averages, variance may destroy this "advantage"... anyway it's less riskier to bet 1u and a win every 4 cycles profits 1u...
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Jan 01, 02:39 PM 2015
Quote from: Randominator on Jan 01, 07:46 AM 2015
Now this is a good way of thinking. Riding on repeats but anticipate the change.

I had best results so far with similar kind of play. 2 3 4 5 doesn't come too often so we could profit on repeats before profiting on change. Warrior also mentions this:

"Repeats and changes of number make this bet win"

"So if all lines show at once I'm either on 2 of them or 3 of them to corner the bet for there changing numbers or catch the repeat . Now this is a HUGE TIP USE IT OR LOSE IT LOL."

Knowing when to ride and when to change is the key. Perhaps this can be achieved by observing stats. Warrior mentioned "formula".

I can't comment on the Warrior method because it was too vague since the beginning and Falkor's torrents of numbers didn't help, either.

I get mixed results betting for/against DS1+DS2+DS3. I't an even chance, same as betting red/black...

The surest winner is still after DS4 hits, betting DS1+2+3+4 for three times.

Now we could have:

1. DS1 starts the cycle.
2. Bet for a repeat once. Wins 5 units or loses 1 unit. We have up to 5 cycles to break even on that bet.
3. DS2 and DS3 show up. Not sure about those two. Will have to delve into it later.
4. DS4 hits. It's a trigger.
5. \
6.   ----  Bet for DS1+2+3+4. Wins 2 units or loses 4 units each time. A Loss means DS5 hits, closing the cycle.
7. /
8. We reach this point only if the previous three were successful. Now we bet against 5. 6. and 7. once. Wins 4 units or loses 2 units. A Win closes the cycle. A Loss means No Bet and wait for DS5 to hit and close the cycle.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Jan 01, 03:13 PM 2015
To anyone following the thread and finds it confusing:

By "Natural Cycle" we mean there may be six Double Streets (Lines) on the board, but we're counting just five of them on a loop.

1st example: 2 2 4 5 4 3 3 1 - five different lines appeared - end of cycle. Next spins for a 2nd example: 6 1 6 1 3 2 2 4 - another cycle of five different lines ends.

By DS1, DS2 and so on I'm referring to their order of appearance.

On 1st ex: line 2 is DS1   On 2nd ex: line 6 is DS1
                line 4 is DS2                    line 1 is DS2
                line 5 is DS3                    line 3 is DS3
                line 3 is DS4                    line 2 is DS4
                line 1 is DS5                    line 4 is DS5

The other lines may repeat, but once DS5 hits, that's the end of a cycle. On the next spin whatever line hits will be the new cycle's DS1.

Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Jan 01, 03:44 PM 2015
Tisch:                       T2
Datum:               2015-01-01

********* Gewinnzahlen ********
N  Z  R
    0     
       1  DS1
10       DS2
       7  DS2
       1  DS1
8        DS2
      23 DS3
      36 DS4 T
      23 DS3 +2
      32 DS4 +4
13       DS5  0
22       DS1
      27 DS2
      21 DS1
      34 DS3
    0     
      19 DS1
      23 DS1
2        DS4 T
26       DS2 +2
8        DS5 -2
22       DS1
26       DS2
      36 DS3
       7  DS4 T
-- -- -- 
6        DS5 Damn! -6
4        DS1
      25 DS2
35       DS3
      23 DS4 T
       7  DS5 Damn!! -10
      16 DS1
      19 DS2
       1  DS3
      23 DS2
20       DS2
       5  DS3
6        DS3
    0     
4        DS3
4        DS3
      36 DS4 T
20       DS2 -8
20       DS2 -6
26       DS4 -4 T bet against
      19 DS1 L -6
26       DS4
2        DS3
    0     
         
Not good as example. That's life.
Title: Re: Natural cycles
Post by: psimoes on Jan 01, 04:48 PM 2015
Another table. For better or for worse. No curve fitting. Please note I'm only betting Same As Last 4 Double Streets for three times if possible, then bet against those once for DS5 to hit.


Tisch:                       T3
Datum:               2015-01-01

********* Gewinnzahlen ********
N  Z  R
      36  DS1
      12  DS2
8         DS2
6         DS3
      21  DS4
15        DS5 Errr... this one is just for tracking...
      25  DS1
8         DS2
22        DS3
29        DS1
17        DS4 T
11        DS2 +2
22        DS3 +4
       5   DS5 0
    0     
       5   DS1
22        DS2
-- -- -- 
20        DS2
       5   DS1
13        DS3
17        DS3
       9   DS4 T
29        DS5 "#$$% -4
17        DS1
35        DS2
29        DS3
      12  DS4 T
      23  DS5 "#$% -8
-- -- -- 
35        DS1
6         DS2
       3   DS2
31        DS1
35        DS1
      12  DS3
6         DS2
       9   DS3
    0     
-- -- -- 
      16  DS4 T
       7   DS3 -6
20        DS5 !"#$% -10
       7   DS1
22        DS2
      18  DS3
4         DS4 T
22        DS2 -8
      14  DS3 -6
10        DS1 -4 T
35        DS5 WIN! 0
31        DS1
-- -- -- 
      12  DS2
4         DS3
      16  DS2
22        DS4 T
26        DS5 !"#$%&/( -4
8         DS1
       3   DS2
      12  DS1
8         DS1
      18  DS3
      16  DS3
       7   DS1
10        DS1
      32  DS4 T
-- -- -- 
      32  DS4 -2
11        DS1 0
      27  DS5 "#$% -4
      12  DS1
13        DS2
17        DS2
      27  DS3
6         DS4 T
33        DS5 !"#$% -8
11        DS1
      12  DS1 First time DS1 repeats!...
-- -- -- 
31        DS2
      19  DS3
       1   DS1
      30  DS4 T
       1   DS1 -6
28        DS4 -4
      18  DS5 "#$% -8
26        DS1
       5   DS2
-- -- -- 
      32  DS3
      34  DS3
24        DS4 T
2         DS2 -6
35        DS3 -4
      23  DS4 -2
26        DS1 L -4
8         DS5

10        DS1
      34  DS2
31        DS2
28        DS3
      18  DS4 T
2         DS5 !"#$%& -10 Had more luck with RNG. Well that's it for now.
       7 
-- -- -- 
      12 
       9 
17       
24       
26       
      27 
      30 
      19 
22       
-- -- -- 
    0     
      14 
      19 
31       
       9 
      12 
       7 
       9 
15       
35       
6       
       5 
11       
-- -- -- 
33       
8       
31       
10       
      19 
28       
    0     
       9 
13       
      36 
      12 
       5 
-- -- -- 
      21 
13       
      21 
28       
8       
20       
    0     
22       
17       
      19 
33       
35       
      19 
       3 
      32 
-- -- -- 
      23 
      23 
      23 
22       
      23 
       7 
11       
      25 
24       
2       
      23 
      27 
      27 
-- -- -- 
       7 
       7 
       3 
      21 
20       
      18 
      12 
8       
31       
      19 
4       
      18 
      19 
-- -- -- 
       9 
26       
       1 
8       
35       
33       
24       
      34 
35       
6