I'm writing about this system because it's the first to beat the "Horror Sequence" that I've used for testing for years. The guy who runs link:s://imspirit.wordpress.com/ (link:s://imspirit.wordpress.com/) claims that it fails over the long run for Baccarat. I'll continue testing with Spielbank and see what happens, but it's won so far. Please beat this if you can. Thanks! :)
This is a variation of the D’Alembert betting procedure, designed and popularized by Ellis C. Davis at beatthecasino.com.
U1 means “Up 1u†when you lose a bet.
D2 means “Down 2u†when you win a bet.
M2 means “Mandatory 2u†after any 1u bet.
Bet Selection :
1. Always bet Repeat (same as the last decision), except …
2. Bet Opposite until loss(different from the last decision) after two consecutive chops (that is, after the last three decisions alternate between different decisions).
Notes on the Attached "Horror Sequence" :
+First column is the original win/loss that was viewed as ec (R/B, H/L,O/E)
+Second Column is the Bet Selection above based on the first column
+Third is the bet in units
+Forth is the total
Stats :
"Horror Sequence"
Spins : 1200
Total : +268
DD (adjusted) : -50
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table 2 - 02.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 256
Total : +19
DD (adjusted) : -22
------------------------------
Spielbank Table 2 - 01.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 214
Total : +60
DD (adjusted) : -12
the baccarat formula used on roulette.... and it eeeked out units--good work
-------------------------------
Games Won : 3/3
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table 2 - 03.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 227
Total : +22
DD (adjusted) : -41
High : +63
Low : +1
There's a 3rd part of this system from the same blog :
MM Procedure C :
-Use an initial stop loss of -20u.
-For each decade attained, move up the stop loss to 5u less than the current decade. For example, once the score hits +10u, then the stop loss is moved up to +5u. If +20u is hit, then the stop loss becomes +15u. If +30u is reached, the stop loss is now +25u. And so on.
If I add this to the strategy then we have the following stats so far :
"Horror Sequence" : #80 spins +25units
Spielbank Table 2 - 02.07.15 : #32 spins +5 units
Spielbank Table 2 - 03.07.15 : #62 spins +34 units
Spielbank Table 2 - 01.07.15 : #124 spins +43 units
This adds a whole new profitable edge to the game by limiting losses! This averages 1 unit win for every 3 spins. :thumbsup:
-------------------------------
Games Won : 4/4 (using MM from previous posts)
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table 2 - 07.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 14
Total : +05
Low : -1
-------------------------------
Games Won : 4/5 (using MM from previous posts)
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table 2 - 04.07.15
-------------------------------
This game was played through using MM method C (see above)
Spins :192
Wins : + 45
Losses : -49
Total : -04
Quote from: Tomla021 on Jul 22, 04:32 PM 2015
the baccarat formula used on roulette.... and it eeeked out units--good work
Hi Tomla and thelaw,
Very interesting!
How you handling the 0?
This is how I did it-
Example uses roulette decisions:
Res w/l stake +/-tot
========================
B
R L 1 -1
R W 2 +1
R W 1 +2
R W 2 +4
R W 1 +5
B L 2 +3
B W 3 +6
R L 1 +5
R W 2 +7
B L 1 +6
0 L 2 +4 repeat bet on B +1
B W 3 +7
B W 1 +8
R L 2 +6
0 L 3 +3 repeat bet on R +1
R W 4 +7
B L 2 +5
B W 3 +8
B W 1 +9
R L 2 +7
R W 3 +10* Decade of wins. Stop/Loss = +5
In this live real test session I stopped at +10. (Did not need to apply the "bet opposite rule" so far as there were no double chop results!)
Thanks,
A.
Quote from: atlantis on Jul 23, 06:14 AM 2015
Hi Tomla and thelaw,
Very interesting!
How you handling the 0?
This is how I did it-
Example uses roulette decisions:
Res w/l stake +/-tot
========================
B
R L 1 -1
R W 2 +1
R W 1 +2
R W 2 +4
R W 1 +5
B L 2 +3
B W 3 +6
R L 1 +5
R W 2 +7
B L 1 +6
0 L 2 +4 repeat bet on B +1
B W 3 +7
B W 1 +8
R L 2 +6
0 L 3 +3 repeat bet on R +1
R W 4 +7
B L 2 +5
B W 3 +8
B W 1 +9
R L 2 +7
R W 3 +10* Decade of wins. Stop/Loss = +5
In this live real test session I stopped at +10. (Did not need to apply the "bet opposite rule" so far as there were no double chop results!)
Thanks,
A.
That's exactly how I did it. :thumbsup:
-------------------------------
Games Won : 5/6 (using MM from previous posts)
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table 2 - 12.07.15
-------------------------------
This game was played through using MM method C (see above)
Spins :157
Wins : +25
Losses : 00
Total : +25
-------------------------------
Games Won : 5/7 (using MM from previous posts)
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table 2 - 18.07.15
-------------------------------
This game was played through using MM method C (see above)
Spins :141
Wins : +09
Losses : -25
Total : -16
***This was a very bad session. 6 (4+ in a row) losses***
Bad session for me next too.
29 spins
-24
Included a run of 5L and 6L.
A.
Quote from: atlantis on Jul 24, 03:08 AM 2015
Bad session for me next too.
29 spins
-24
Included a run of 5L and 6L.
A.
What's missing here is a unique pre-bet selection. This is a very impressive progression, money management, and bet selection, but it needs one more piece.
I've been looking for that piece for about 6 years. One heck of a hard piece to find! :'(
GLC
Here is the W/L record from one of the worst runs.
Beat it if you can!!! :)
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
GOOD LUCK! :thumbsup:
a lot of serious bacc players us a similiar approach with bet selection and the progression----they just try to grind a few units a session or take a small loss with wins outnumbering losses, and they make some decent units when the results come in favorably
The Law
L -1
W+1
L 0
W +2
W +3
L +1
W +4
W +5
L +3
W +6
W +7
W +9
L +8
W +10
W +11
W +13
W +14
L +12
L +9
W +13
W +15
L +14
L +12
L +9
L +5 Stopped out per your rules above. Won this series by your posted method.
Quote from: dennisbelle on Jul 26, 07:26 PM 2015
The Law
L -1
W+1
L 0
W +2
W +3
L +1
W +4
W +5
L +3
W +6
W +7
W +9
L +8
W +10
W +11
W +13
W +14
L +12
L +9
W +13
W +15
L +14
L +12
L +9
L +5 Stopped out per your rules above. Won this series by your posted method.
I think you misunderstood.
I was giving an example of the W/L record to see if we could find a better progression.
With stop-loss, it wins across the board easily, but I'm looking to play all the way through (as in the tests above), as I don't think hit-and-run is effective long term. :thumbsup:
A simple marty would win this as would a combination of double win/parlay combination but both are high risk (require a lot of bankroll) and not some thing
I would play.
Quote from: dennisbelle on Jul 26, 08:44 PM 2015
A simple marty would win this as would a combination of double win/parlay combination but both are high risk (require a lot of bankroll) and not some thing
I would play.
Agreed. That 10-in-a-row loss streak is always just around the corner w/Martingale.
I've tried all of the progressions that I know, and there all too risky. :sad2:
Quote from: Tomla021 on Jul 22, 04:32 PM 2015
the baccarat formula used on roulette.... and it eeeked out units--good work
Could you please post an actual documented run of this so I can see the application of the
rules? I looked, for example, at the example posted by atlantis and it doesn't really seem to
follow the bet level rules.
Thanks
Mogul
Quote from: thelaw on Jul 26, 02:23 PM 2015
Here is the W/L record from one of the worst runs.
Beat it if you can!!! :)
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
GOOD LUCK! :thumbsup:
I don't play anymore. But I lurk here from time to time :thumbsup:
A standard D'Alembert beats that bad run and profits 58 units...
Thanks thelaw and everyone else helping with this method.
I coded a tracker for the three even chances bets using U1D2M2, with the Last/Furthest Dozens & Columns tracker included....
Download it here (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15762.msg136275#msg136275). It should run in all PCs and smartphones.
Let me know what you think and any bugs you might find.
...ideally i would like to find a collection of hit & run methods that could be easily used together. For example, play the Doz&Columns method for 10 units, then switch over to U1D2M2 for another 10 units,etc. What are your thoughts on this?
Cheers!
Update : Standard Conservative* D'Alembert Beats it
Spielbank Table #2 04.07.15
Previous Stats :
This game was played through using MM method C (see above)
Spins :192
Wins : + 45
Losses : -49
Total : -04
---------------------------------
New Stats :
Spins : 192
Largest Bet : 14
Largest DD : -67
Total : +36
This is much more volatile, but it handled the losing streaks (at least 4 streaks of 5 losses) handily.
I'll retest the other spins today.........stay tuned! :thumbsup:
*Conservative D'Alembert stops raising bet after new high
Update : Standard Conservative* D'Alembert Beats it
New Stats : Games Won 5/6 : + 204 Units over 1159 Spins
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 02.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 256
Largest Bet : 13
Largest DD : -7
Total : +73
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 04.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 192
Largest Bet : 14
Largest DD : -67
Total : +36
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 03.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 227
Largest Bet : 8
Largest DD : 00
Total : +63
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 01.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 214
Largest Bet : 8
Largest DD : -02
Total : +83
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 12.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 157
Largest Bet : 10
Largest DD : -08
Total : +49
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 18.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 113
Largest Bet : 20
Largest DD : -100
Total : -100 (stop-loss)*
*There appears to be a problem with this set of spins as it originally reads #141 spins, but there are only #113 on the page. I'll go back dig this up on Spielbank and run it again later.
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 18.07.15 (adjusted)
-------------------------------
Spins : 141
Largest Bet : 17
Largest DD : -90
Total : -68 (stop-loss)
Updated Stats : Games Won 5/6 : + 236 Units over 1187 Spins
More to come.......... :thumbsup:
Current Stats : Games Won 6/7 : + 283 Units over 1472 Spins : 5.2 spins per Unit Won
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #3 4.07.15
-------------------------------
Spins : 285
Largest Bet : 14
Largest DD : -00
Total : + 47
Update : Busted out another game over -100 stop loss
Progression is just Too Volatile - hit 9 losses in a row in this game :sad2:
Quote from: thelaw on Jul 27, 02:55 PM 2015
Update : Busted out another game over -100 stop loss
Progression is just Too Volatile - hit 9 losses in a row in this game :sad2:
Appreciate the testing & honesty..... :thumbsup:
I'm no fan of any progression, but if you must, have you tried the Divisor ?
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=54.0 (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=54.0)
O0
Quote from: ddarko on Jul 27, 03:24 PM 2015
Appreciate the testing & honesty..... :thumbsup:
I'm no fan of any progression, but if you must, have you tried the Divisor ?
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=54.0 (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=54.0)
O0
Yes. Too much of a grind. You could go for 200 spins without a real profit. Thanks for the suggestion. :thumbsup:
Quote from: thelaw on Jul 27, 04:07 PM 2015
Yes. Too much of a grind. You could go for 200 spins without a real profit. Thanks for the suggestion. :thumbsup:
no problem, sorry it was no use !!!!
Looks like it boils down to that question again......
How to get a better "bet selection" !!!!!
O0
2-4 numbers max.
Look at roulette as nothing more than a college course. Lots of studying, many tests along the way and hopefully one day......graduate.
Ken
Quote from: thelaw on Jul 27, 02:55 PM 2015
Update : Busted out another game over -100 stop loss
Progression is just Too Volatile - hit 9 losses in a row in this game :sad2:
Just to prove there are no "universal" bad runs. And 9 losses in a row isn't that bad for an 18 numbers bet. You probably have gone through some 7 wins in a row too. Sadly, no progression beats the House edge.
thelaw,
how bad is this horror sequence you refer to? what would you compare it to.
for example is this like beating 18...24 reds in a row?
or passing a dozen not showing up in 30 spins.
or no repeat for a single number in 16 spins (max is 24)
etc
Quote from: MrJ on Jul 27, 08:22 PM 2015
Look at roulette as nothing more than a college course. Lots of studying, many tests along the way and hopefully one day......graduate.
Ken
Ken have you had your graduation.
Think i've studied enough for mine. Me just play the numbers off, your 1-4 numbers, i suppose each to their own.
Quote from: amk on Jul 28, 04:49 PM 2015
thelaw,
how bad is this horror sequence you refer to? what would you compare it to.
for example is this like beating 18...24 reds in a row?
or passing a dozen not showing up in 30 spins.
or no repeat for a single number in 16 spins (max is 24)
etc
It's not as much one bad run, but several together that destroy the progression. You could use the divisor method, but it could literally be hundreds of spins without a profit.
Unfortunately, I can't test past the Spielbank spins to see if it recovers long term, but the original (see first post) is a very strong progression.
Personally, this is the best bet selection that I've seen, but it needs the proper progression to win.
Quote from: nottophammer on Jul 28, 04:58 PM 2015
Ken have you had your graduation.
Think i've studied enough for mine. Me just play the numbers off, your 1-4 numbers, i suppose each to their own.
Absolutely is my answer. THE BIGGEST KEY.....you must FIRST have a method that does well, it does not have to be great at first. Why? Tweak it from "good"...to..."very good". A method will NEVER be perfect, its impossible so dont try. You cannot take a method that is "poor" and tweak it to "very good", it will not happen.
I had/have a method that did pretty well but I kept running into the SAME issue that depleted what I had just won over the last few hours. Soooo, I *FIXED* (or adjusted) the method. You cant keep doing the same thing and expect different results. You need to ADJUST, ADJUST, ADJUST and more ADJUSTING until the point where your CURRENT idea method will not work. Kick THAT idea method to the side (never play it again) and move on to a different method.
TRIAL & ERROR.......I have said it hundreds of times !!!!
Ken
Here is one of the worst runs that I have found so far :
LLLLLWLWWWLWLLLLLLWLLLLWWLLLWLWWLWLLLLLLLLLWLLWWWLLLWWLLWLWLLWWLWWWLLLLLLLWWWLLLLWLWWLLWWLLWWLLWLLLLL
BEAT IT IF YOU CAN!!! :thumbsup:
Well, with a ratio like that it's impossible, as it looks more like the LW for single dozens. You should have waited for the regression (if possible), or stopped when the LW started to even out. For ECs that's when a "run" should end. For single dozens, a run should end when the overall count reaches 2 Ls per every W. If that happens too soon and you want to keep playing, it should be time to reverse your bet selection. Just some crazy idea that crossed my mind.
Example: if last outcome was Odd, bet High. If Even, bet Low.
15 bet high
8 L bet low
22 L bet low
18 W bet low
4 W bet low
31 L bet high
18 L bet low
27 L bet high
9 L bet high
36 W bet low
18 W bet low
29 L bet high
26 W bet low
17 W bet high
20 W bet low - wait! 6 Ws vs 6 Ls? Don't push your luck and reverse the bets.
Now if last outcome was Odd, bet Low. If Even, bet High.
20 W bet high instead
21 W bet low
24 L bet high
18 L bet high
15 L bet low
12 W bet high
21 W bet low
0 L bet low
29 L bet low
11 W bet low
14 W bet high
Something like that. Not tested/developed.
Quote from: thelaw on Jul 28, 08:12 PM 2015
Here is one of the worst runs that I have found so far :
LLLLLWLWWWLWLLLLLLWLLLLWWLLLWLWWLWLLLLLLLLLWLLWWWLLLWWLLWLWLLWWLWWWLLLLLLLWWWLLLLWLWWLLWWLLWWLLWLLLLL
BEAT IT IF YOU CAN!!! :thumbsup:
Hi Law
that L/W registry any chance of putting the actual numbers, cheers.
How many units you trying to win on this RFH
Quote from: nottophammer on Jul 29, 04:08 PM 2015
Hi Law
that L/W registry any chance of putting the actual numbers, cheers.
How many units you trying to win on this RFH
The detailed Spielbank date/table is posted earlier in the thread for reference of actual spins.
In terms of units, it must be higher than a super-grinder, so I would say at least 1 unit every 6 spins. The divisor method will beat it, but it just takes way too long-hundreds of spins for a profit. :sad2:
Hey Law,
i had seen this method before posted in imspirit (the blog) but had not had the time to try it for roulette. Thanks for the idea.
You were saying that the divisor method could work but you have to wait long for a profit.... i am going to look up this now, but speaking of the top of my head,
would playing all 3 even chances help speed up the process?
I coded into the html tracker all three just to see if one could either offset losses or make shorter hit & run sessions. If you want to see the wins/loss history and the bankroll changes for each, just open up the browser's code inspector and you will see there the lists printed out.
Quote from: cheEsteban on Jul 30, 04:15 PM 2015
Hey Law,
i had seen this method before posted in imspirit (the blog) but had not had the time to try it for roulette. Thanks for the idea.
You were saying that the divisor method could work but you have to wait long for a profit.... i am going to look up this now, but speaking of the top of my head,
would playing all 3 even chances help speed up the process?
I coded into the html tracker all three just to see if one could either offset losses or make shorter hit & run sessions. If you want to see the wins/loss history and the bankroll changes for each, just open up the browser's code inspector and you will see there the lists printed out.
It might, but then again waiting 200 spins for a profit is a bit too much for me. Remember the Divisor Method eventually reverts to a Martingale when executed.
I would say that a proper mm strategy would be better than expanding the betting options. The initial progression with proper mm (from blog) was a very solid system with very little risk. I would be willing to bet that it might win long-term if you can handle the swings. Unfortunately, there'e now way for me to test this using Spielbank numbers unless I just jump from one table to another as the day ends.
Quote from: thelaw on Jul 30, 04:38 PM 2015
Unfortunately, there'e now way for me to test this using Spielbank numbers unless I just jump from one table to another as the day ends.
Maybe it's time for you to invest in Roulette Xtreme ?
link:://:.uxsoftware.com/pages/index.html (link:://:.uxsoftware.com/pages/index.html)
Handy bit of kit for anybody looking to test / download spins ?
O0
Can't seem to get this one out of my head............most resilient bet selection i've ever seen.
Just ran the Original Bet Selection + U1D2M2 Progression with zero MM on the last problem table :
Original Using Standard D'Alambert
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 18.07.15 (adjusted)
-------------------------------
Spins : 141
Largest Bet : 17
Largest DD : -90
Total : -68 (stop-loss)
-------------------------------
Updated using above strategy
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
Spielbank Table #2 18.07.15 (adjusted)
-------------------------------
Spins : 141
Largest Bet : 6
Largest DD : -15
Total : -06 (stop-loss)
Although not a winner, still very safe if I can find a way to eek out some small wins over time. A grinder for sure, but maybe a winner long term. :thumbsup:
Hi thelaw,
I have an idea. Maybe try the U1D2M2 with the FBMP adapted for roulette EC?
It could make a good complimentary selection method.
I'll try it later and let you know...
A.
PS. Also I like to use instead of U1D2M2:
U1A2C-DT1AL
(Up 1 After 2 Consecutive Wins - Down To 1 After Any Loss)
:xd: :lol:
Seemed OK.
I tried using PA's numbers from another thread.
+50 using my progression above or +32 flat betting in 87 spins.
This could be good...
@thelaw: can you post 100 R/B decisions (or any other EC decisions) and I will test those too?
Thanx
A.
Quote from: atlantis on Aug 08, 05:56 AM 2015
Seemed OK.
I tried using PA's numbers from another thread.
+50 using my progression above or +32 flat betting in 87 spins.
This could be good...
@thelaw: can you post 100 R/B decisions (or any other EC decisions) and I will test those too?
Thanx
A.
Hey Atlantis,
I've abandoned the U1D2M2 system as it's failed too many times with no foreseeable recovery.
I'm currently testing the 3-Play strategy from the Target Betting Blog with absolutely stunning results (I think this guy actually beat the game)..........more to come this week.
As for numbers, check earlier in this thread and there should be a few lists, or use the doc attached (horror sequence 1600 spins- ingore betting results-just use w/L record).
Good luck! :)
OK - I will check out the target betting.
I agree about the U1D2M2; I think flatbetting or mild progression like the one I used above is way to go... Flat is king tho' and the FBMP is pretty good on that score - it keeps you in the game.
I look forward to hearing your findings about the target method.
Best wishes,
A.