Ken
How I see the HE is that it would come to matter if we play constantly same numbers, same system combination.
Otherwise we fell victim of bad judgment and pushing progressions in the wrong time. And that is the monster "HE" of xxx %, which cleans our BR.
A 21 year old called Bob. Thats unfortunate.
The reply is yes....if you improve the accuracy of your bet selection
Nice Mr J
why are the math guys still on all the forums saying the math proves you can't win.
If they know this, why are they here.
Are they preachers trying to save our soles.
Look at wheel streets 11/13 +1008
So is it over time, how long ?, Ignatus could be arriving just as the RFH has finished, and wins again and again, he might just be that lucky, because we all need a bit of luck, that the RFH cant catch him.
Oops the math says he will get caught
Yes the maths is the maths. 2.7% or 5.4% buys a lot of neon lights. Timing is the key, or as some people say ''improve the accuracy of your bet selection''. If you are regularly winning (flat betting), you will have somehow worked out how to do this on a consistent basis. It's no big deal and Turner is entitled to his opinions like all the rest of us. At the very least, he actually plays the game. There are other guys who spout a lot of stuff regarding maths on other forums who don't even play. Why would anyone want to enlighten someone who does not even play the game. It's these guys that annoy me. It's like they are goading people just to find out what they have got.
cheers
@t
Ken
Ken
So where does the math stand
All that one needs is WHAT to bet, HOW to bet and WHEN to bet.
Not complicated at all.
Quote from: nottophammer on Feb 21, 12:38 PM 2016
So where does the math stand
Heck if I know? Like I said, I think there are BETTER ways to bet but hey, I could be wrong.
(imo) I do quite well at the casino, however, its mostly through trial & error.
Ken
Quote from: Tamino on Feb 21, 12:44 PM 2016
All that one needs is f WHAT to bet, HOW to bet and WHEN to bet.
Not complicated at all.
Okay, at that point then, the HE drops under 5.26%? What does it drop to? For how long?
Ken
Forget the HE. Concentrate on winnings.
Leave the HE to the mathboyzz. That`s their worry. With all their preoccupation with math they forget one thing : HOW to win.
Quote from: Tamino on Feb 21, 12:55 PM 2016
Forget the HE. Concentrate on winnings.
Leave the HE to the mathboyzz. That`s their worry. With all their preoccupation with math they forget one thing : HOW to win.
8)
Totally agree; From my experience it is extremely difficult for the dealer to repeat certain patterns
over, over and over.....; and I'm not talking about R/B; H/L; O/E which have all been created by
casinos to ensure they win.
Que
Please have a read of this everyone.
The Law of Disproportionate Occurrence.
Though the dice, the roulette wheel, and the cards ‘’have no memory’’, what they do have is a conscience, and this conscience is called a PROBABILITY MODEL. As most of you probably already know, there exists what are known as probability models for each of the games, and the various bets which make up the games. Where infinity (the long-run) is concerned, these probability models provide that there will be ‘’x’’ number of ‘’apples’’ to ‘’x’’ number of ‘’oranges’’. In general, 50 ‘’heads’’ for every 50 ‘’tails’’. With each game and each probability model, the most common occurrence of any particular event is the first one, or one. The next most common is the second, or two, the third or three, and so on.
However a glaring misconception occurs when considering the short-run in the same manner! Reality unquestionably evidences the existence of a second ‘’bi-polar’’ law, or what is probably more accurately identified as a ‘’counter-polar’’ law that governs the short-run. This phenomenon is witnessed by what we commonly describe as ‘’things don’t happen like they’re supposed to’’!
For if the law governing the long-run were truly duplicated in the short-run, casino table games would have been extinct long ago. The challenge would be simple because of obviously already knowing for example, that with every 100 spins of the roulette wheel, that there must be exactly 50 red numbers to the 50 black numbers within those specific 100 spins. Well it doesn’t quite work that way now does it?
Not only do we know that ‘’it doesn’t work that way’’, we can also accurately state that the law of the long-run isn’t dictated to prevail in the short-run, and it is in fact extremely rare that it does duplicate itself perfectly in the short-run. Hence, through actual observation of the short-run, the fact is established that the law governing the long-run IS NOT duplicated in the short-run. Therefore, the challenge of the games present this unique paradox: the short-run is inequitable to the long-run!
So when it comes to gaming relationships and probabilities, though the whole is still equal to the sum of its parts, the parts themselves are not simply abbreviated versions of that whole.
Though the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence doesn’t need to be academically justified or philosophically rationalized, it commands acknowledgement. There is nothing we can do to fight it or eliminate it. And why should we anyway? If we learn to exploit it instead of challenge it, the results will be greatly to our advantage! Furthermore, this is the same exact law that the casinos now worship to enjoy a ‘’take’’ of 15 to 20 percent plus, instead of just the miniscule 2+/- percent that the ‘’commission’’ would offer by itself. Therefore, once you acknowledge that the casino is nothing more than the host for the games, then and only then, will you be able to accept that the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence is absolutely the ‘’phenomenon’’ which will aid you in taking the casino’s money, while they are left void of a defense!
My fingers are sore typing that lot out. :P Either try to understand it and learn from it or not. The choice is yours.
cheers
All this come out of your head?
There is nothing awesome with any numbers, characteristics, or betting method. Numbers are numbers, subjected to math’s rules. The math guys can chime in and say, “That’s what I am talking about.â€
On the other hand, it is in the “belief†that my 12 numbers is better than someone else’s 12 numbers. Fortunately, both arguments are wrong.
Experience is the defining factor.
Kimo Li
Quote from: Tamino on Feb 21, 12:55 PM 2016
Forget the HE. Concentrate on winnings.
Leave the HE to the mathboyzz. That`s their worry. With all their preoccupation with math they forget one thing : HOW to win.
Gawd man, you place your bet, the odds are fixed, that's your chance of winning, end of story. There's no "how to win". What's so difficult to understand? You don't need to be a maths wiz to get it. You have 30 units, you put 30 units on red, the best you can do is win other 30 units, if you rather put 1 unit on any single number for 30 spins, you could win a lot more than 30 units, but in the long run you'll still end up losing the HE. That's all you need to know.
@Kimo Li >> So can "experience" lower the HE for you? The word BETTER = a lower HE (imo).
Ken
Experience does not lower the HE. Experience allows the player make the right decisions.
Kimo Li
Quote from: Kimo Li on Feb 21, 02:07 PM 2016
Experience does not lower the HE. Experience allows the player make the right decisions.
Kimo Li
I'm not trying to argue even though I come off that way, I do apologize. If the HE *NEVER* changes, that being said, I would think there are no right OR wrong decisions? The HE would STAY THE SAME(?)
Ken
Quote from: Kimo Li on Feb 21, 01:55 PM 2016
There is nothing awesome with any numbers, characteristics, or betting method. Numbers are numbers, subjected to math’s rules. The math guys can chime in and say, “That’s what I am talking about.â€
On the other hand, it is in the “belief†that my 12 numbers is better than someone else’s 12 numbers. Fortunately, both arguments are wrong.
Experience is the defining factor.
Kimo Li
Mr Li
The more i read about math in roulette,the more i keep away from the math. Roulette is a game of chance, so i here people say.
Well as some know i'm building a data base on the airball spins from Jackpot247.
I have another data base built on RNG spins. Even thou one is much larger, the figures are so similar.
Now the part where you say my 12 numbers is better than someone else’s 12 numbers .
I've seen a random 12 numbers take 34 spins, a dozen be it 1,2 or 3 take atleast 34 spins.
Now the but
When i play the non-hit of the mat/wheel betting those 12 remaining non-hit the longest i've seen it take in j247 is 10 spins, the larger data base 17 spins, no where near as the random 12, so why is this,what is the answer by math
I'm a method player and here I am insulting myself (lol), who does that?
Ken
Quote from: Tacwell on Feb 21, 02:00 PM 2016
Gawd man, you place your bet, the odds are fixed, that's your chance of winning, end of story. There's no "how to win". What's so difficult to understand? You don't need to be a maths wiz to get it. You have 30 units, you put 30 units on red, the best you can do is win other 30 units, if you rather put 1 unit on any single number for 30 spins, you could win a lot more than 30 units, but in the long run you'll still end up losing the HE. That's all you need to know.
Another feckin Maths boy....Jesus wept :thumbsup:
@ Ken
HE exists as of rays of sun exists and will always be there...
You are endangered by them in relation with how much you expose yourself to them and which protection you are using, if any!
Quote from: Kimo Li on Feb 21, 02:07 PM 2016
Experience does not lower the HE. Experience allows the player make the right decisions.
Kimo Li
So what are the
right decisions that this experience teaches you? When I turned 21 my first try at the roulette table was playing a martingale on alternating red/black. I played for hours until I lost my br. My last visit to the casino (now over 40), I played EC again, for the fist time in ages, oscar's grind against itself. I left well up, but not because of experience, just luck, plain and simple.
Quote from: Turner on Feb 21, 02:15 PM 2016
Another feckin Maths boy....Jesus wept :thumbsup:
Simple logic. Negative expected value. It's a fact, it can't change, no matter how much that guy wept.
I've seen a random 12 numbers take 34 spins, a dozen be it 1,2 or 3 take atleast 34 spins.
Now the but
When i play the non-hit of the mat/wheel betting those 12 remaining non-hit the longest i've seen it take in j247 is 10 spins, the larger data base 17 spins, no where near as the random 12, so why is this,what is the answer by math
is this above written in, invisable ink
Quote from: nottophammer on Feb 21, 02:31 PM 2016
I've seen a random 12 numbers take 34 spins, a dozen be it 1,2 or 3 take atleast 34 spins.
Now the but
When i play the non-hit of the mat/wheel betting those 12 remaining non-hit the longest i've seen it take in j247 is 10 spins, the larger data base 17 spins, no where near as the random 12, so why is this,what is the answer by math
is this above written in, invisable ink
What was the payout for all 3 bet selections?
Quote from: nottophammer on Feb 21, 02:31 PM 2016
I've seen a random 12 numbers take 34 spins, a dozen be it 1,2 or 3 take atleast 34 spins.
Now the but
When i play the non-hit of the mat/wheel betting those 12 remaining non-hit the longest i've seen it take in j247 is 10 spins, the larger data base 17 spins, no where near as the random 12, so why is this,what is the answer by math
is this above written in, invisable ink
I'm not exactly a maths guy, but start looking here:
link:s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deviation_%28statistics%29 (link:s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deviation_%28statistics%29)
not asking that i'm interested in the difference in spins against a random 12 numbers or the 12 numbers in one of the dozens, against the non-hit being played down untill we get to the remaining 12 non-hit, why such a difference in spins, seen many times, in fact been there and done it
Experience will tell you when to stay and when to leave, what strategy to play and what not to play, how much money to risk and not to risk. Experience is not impervious to losses, but limiting your losses and knowing when to fight another day, that holds true to winning as well. Did you make your quota?, leave.
For some, experience will not teach you positive lessons. It will teach you to do the same mistakes over and over, drinking, borrowing money, staying up to late, etc., that is a different topic.
@Ken,
QuoteI'm not trying to argue even though I come off that way, I do apologize. If the HE *NEVER* changes, that being said, I would think there are no right OR wrong decisions? The HE would STAY THE SAME(?)
I do not see it as an argument. I do not see it as right or wrong. I see it as making decisions, regardless of the outcome.
Kimo Li
Thanks for the link
But i'm not wasting my time on math.
I believe that what the formulas come up with are right. Like i said am i going to sit at the table working math, don't think so
This
"how much money to risk and not to risk" and this
"limiting your losses" What experience won't do is give you a better chance of winning in the long run, or beat the
HE, or tell you when it's the right time to leave (aside from the whiskey effect).
Quote from: Kimo Li on Feb 21, 02:43 PM 2016
Experience will tell you when to stay and when to leave, what strategy to play and what not to play, how much money to risk and not to risk. Experience is not impervious to losses, but limiting your losses and knowing when to fight another day, that holds true to winning as well. Did you make your quota?, leave.
For some, experience will not teach you positive lessons. It will teach you to do the same mistakes over and over, drinking, borrowing money, staying up to late, etc., that is a different topic.
@Ken,
I do not see it as an argument. I do not see it as right or wrong. I see it as making decisions, regardless of the outcome.
Kimo Li
Quote from: nottophammer on Feb 21, 02:44 PM 2016
Thanks for the link
But i'm not wasting my time on math.
I believe that what the formulas come up with are right. Like i said am i going to sit at the table working math, don't think so
Then test enough to average out deviation (you'll have to ask someone else how much testing that requires), if you're still ahead after that, then you're on to something.
Another thing to consider when running the math........this post was a real wake-up call for me :
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=7709.msg70028#msg70028
Check out the graphs further down the front page.
Some of these had 10,000-25,000 spins before they tanked, with huge dd before recovery.
Which begs the question...........who here has presented a system that has these numbers without a failure?
I always consider this when searching for "Proof" of a working method. If you played for 4hrs per day, you would need about 4 months to hit 25,000 spins. :sad2:
The 25,000CLUB :question:
The 100,000CLUB :ooh:
The 1,000,000CLUB :twisted:
Quote from: MrJ on Feb 20, 08:35 PM 2016
Can a person win LONG TERM and still play against the very same 5.26% that the rookie plays against?
Of course, there are so many different ways to play that one person may have a long period of time in profit and the other might lose right from the start and never recover - but the math won't change.
I find it curious that people who complain in this thread about the "math people" seem to think that anyone preaching math is anti-system (which isn't the case at all).
If you say "nonsense" to the math of the game, then don't waste any more time working on
methods - you'll go through thousands of ideas and never get anywhere.
How can you avoid one of the most important things in the game, or pretend it doesn't exist ?
I could probably go on and on about this topic and what's been mentioned already - but I don't have the time right now. lol.
The "amazing" charts some systems produce are also nonsense if you just stop to think about it.
Let's say a chart climbs and climbs for 10,000 spins and then tanks - (you end up where the math says you should be at).
So.... that's impressive ? Ask the person who "just" started playing the exact same method/system right before it tanked. Their chart would look absolutely terrible - it would drop and drop and drop - eventually maybe recover some, etc etc.
A nice chart that climbs and then tanks doesn't mean something works - because you have to assume that "someone" started playing at some point in the chart and has had a horrific time playing it lol. You can't know that you're starting at the beginning and can look forward to thousands of spins in the profit, you have to also assume that you started right when it started to tank as well... Make sense ? Of course it does.
What you can say though is that the odds of that terrible event happening might be rare enough that it's worth playing. If it tanks once in 10,000 spins for example - I would say it's worth the risk to play it, and hope that "my" place on the chart isn't where it went all-to-hell.
That's a topic most people don't want to think about - they see a chart that looks nice
and never think that you theoretically could have started right when it fails and you're in the hole.
@turbo
Thats how i felt with aspects of grassroots
A unique dozen sequence repeats on average every 300 spins
Ex 123123
Now id like to play against that unique. But what if when i get to the table it happens right away
@Turbo >> I have said something similar for years but nobody listens. For you chart people (thats not me) this is how I would like to see the testing charts ......start your method and every 30 spins, restart the method again, 30 spins later, start method again etc.
Using some of those past spins as part of the current testing etc. Multiple small tests but within the SAME long set of numbers. I hope that made sense.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Feb 23, 08:33 PM 2016
@Turbo >> I have said something similar for years but nobody listens. For you chart people (thats not me) this is how I would like to see the testing charts ......start your method and every 30 spins, restart the method again, 30 spins later, start method again etc.
Using some of those past spins as part of the current testing etc. Multiple small tests but within the SAME long set of numbers. I hope that made sense.
Ken
I should be more clear regarding my own post. This is how I would like to see some
testing done >> Start test and 30 spins into it, restart a new test but KEEP GOING on the first test.
30 spins later, start over again but keep going with those first TWO tests etc. All numbers over lapping each other AS IF you just sat down next to a guy playing the SAME method but he started before you did. All tests up to 240 spins(?) each....thats 6 hours of play at a REAL CASINO.
Ken
one question, did anyone of you can prove that some system-method is better or worse than another, or all is same, in the long term -2.7%? :)
Quote from: speed on Feb 25, 08:10 PM 2016
one question, did anyone of you can prove that some system-method is better or worse than another, or all is same, in the long term -2.7%? :)
I think (general consensus) was, its NOT the method itself but rather, SPECIFIC moments, when to bet within that method. It came down to TIMING rather than the method. At least thats what I got out of it. The bad news however, if you ask TOP TOP pros (none of us here), they would say, it makes NO DIFFERENCE at all, for one spin or many spins, the HE will never change.
Ken
I agree if we can see or predict the future we do not need any system
The biggest issue with methods is the money not being in MY pocket
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Feb 27, 07:16 PM 2016
The biggest issue with methods is the money not being in MY pocket
lol - nice.
Make sure the money gets there ! (Just not too much of it too quickly)
@General sir....I think this is a decent question, mainly for myself (lol), sorry.
Any comments? I know the ball does not say...here comes that Ken guy again, lets lower the HE for him!! (lol)
QuoteIt cant be a timing issue of when to bet. Your HE is still the same(?) Give me an example of "timing", the HE is now lower than 5.26% (2.7%). This is the problem I have, I feel there are GREAT numbers to bet and at GREAT times to make those bets *BUT* according to the math, it makes no difference.
On the live wheel, some numbers can provide the player with an edge, and some can provide the house with an edge that's even larger than the theoretical. This is because of a few different things.
i know the general travels around a lot. im not sure how he calculates his advantage with a computer or not. When the general places a bet how many numbers does he cover?
Quotei know the general travels around a lot. im not sure how he calculates his advantage with a computer or not. When the general places a bet how many numbers does he cover?
Yes, I travel a ton.
It depends on the type of game that I'm playing. I'll bet on between three to 12 numbers.