I had an immediate reaction when I read this part of Victor's post elsewhere:
You have to be very scientific in your approach and bet only in the "statistical attack zone" for your events: that fine line where it hits the majority of the cases. i.e. chart the neighbors in the disc and tell me how many times you get to spin #18 without a neighbor... now how many to spin 15... now how many to spin 12 without a neighbor?... make your statistics and make conclusions on the straight-up events. You'll be amazed at the amount of "almost certainties" you may find).
Pure gold dust!
A nod from Victor is as good as a wink... ;)
Let's bear in mind he knows what he's talking about. (Inside numbers feature in his Tipping Service, currently showing great success in its Beta testing)
Perhaps we could use this thread for all to share their findings.
OMG! Somebody actually reads me! :D
I also published How to make proper statistics, spin-window based (link:://rouletteforum.cc/roulette-and-gambling-framework/how-to-make-proper-statistics-spin-window-based/).
Suffice to say I have my own vision and understanding of what the roulette game is.
To me the three levels of roulette are:
1) Physical level: Best approach being Advantage-play. Measuring all physical factors.
2) Numerical labels game: This is what statistics for "stiff" numbers are. The statistics are all based on the exact location printed on the wheel spot or a location of the table layout. Some take this numerical labels game too literal and actually put meaning or "weight" to some numerical labels over others (i.e. after number X it must come number Y). Obviously if the numbers were letters all the statistics are wrong, and common sense says labels are simply there to identify the pockets, not very wise to use these labels as your foundation to approach roulette.
3) Transformed actuals game: An events-based game which is derived from transforming the numbers into events. This is what I have focused into. Believe it or not, when you forget about numbers and focus in the "numerical events" generated by them, and their timing on the spin window, you find consistency; not 100% certainty, but enough "almost certainties" to be useable to generate bets.
You know what does this 3rd level have in common with advantage play? If the numbers were letters instead, the consistency of the events is still there :) So in some sense this level is very real, it just can't be "Grabbed with your hand", but the consistency is there.
The tool is based on events, both wheel-based (physics permeating the game) and other which are purely statistical, but -in the sense mentioned about-, real. (i.e. how many times you do get to 18 spins without neighbors in your regular game! how many times for the symmetry, etc... they are very real to me, enough to rely bets on them :)). All powered by the malleability of straight number betting, where the most combinations are possible (give the maximum amount of elements).
When you get enough grasp of the concept and only move within the most likely zone for the events to happen, given the game's recurrent distribution of numerical events, you will be right a pretty large amount of times.
This also has to do with the long-term trend and the short-term trend and the undeniable clumping of events.
The moment to lay real-money bets is when the short-term values are reflecting the long-term averages.
Back to the illustrative neighbors bet: when in your presently experienced spin windows you are actually realizing the long-term statistics you have gathered, you enable them, and keep them enabled "leeching" the benefits of the effect of your knowledge of the dynamics of events and making units.
When the odd time comes that you didn't get it right, then you better disable the event/trigger, because the bad times for it also tend to clump.
This automatically leaves you betting only those events that are currently delivering as per their long-term observed statistically most-realized zone, and you automatically ride the wave for them.
Combine several events, always "Looking back" to generate your spin window and you'll be surprised at how many betting opportunities are continually generated for this type of play, all within a good standing of likeliness to realize (always using those that are in the best values for the attack zone).
In some sense you are always monitoring the available events by the continuous "Looking back" and you are generating plenty of statistically-prone bets, by identifying the continuous spin windows which are created spin to spin. Going to the illustrative neighbors again, by the perpetual looking back process if there is ever a realized spin window on which neighbors haven't come by spin 15 (and you know it barely never goes to spin #18), you can use this information to bet for the next 3 spins up to spin 18 and you will be as right as the same pace on which your attack zone actually is right (i.e. completelyh most of the times).
Remember, every set of actuals has a winning combination of events on it, the art lies in always hovering on the best attack zone and always enabling and disabling the eligible bets as per using the "latest spin window" approach to determine "where you currently are".
The most recent number spun changes the state of the tracked events and the most events you have figured out the most the most chances to always find yourself betting "in the zone".
Regards,
Victor
Brilliant stuff. Thanks so much for taking the time out of your busy schedule to put this together.
(Yep -- some of us DO read your stuff!!)
Suitable Tools?
Could you also take a moment to discuss the tools needed to generate suitable 'events-based-statistics'?
Like what? Where from? Cost $$?
I dare say Roulette Extreme will be on your list but what of others?
Quote from: esoito on Oct 10, 08:28 PM 2010
I dare say Roulette Extreme will be on your list but what of others?
I scarcely use roulette extreme.
I mostly do like Bayes and code what I need on my own.
Addendum to above's post.
Regarding:
Quote2) Numerical labels game: This is what statistics for "stiff" numbers are. The statistics are all based on the exact location printed on the wheel spot or a location of the table layout. Some take this numerical labels game too literal and actually put meaning or "weight" to some numerical labels over others (i.e. after number X it must come number Y)
Giving weight to the numerical labels is what numerologists make (numerology is the study of the meaning of numbers, obviously their field of study being numbers themselves).
I once questioned a numerology student from the forum on one of those "after X it must number Y" statements, specifically "after 13 it must soon come 31" (and vice-versa).
I asked "why? 13 and 31 are just numerical labels glued to the wheel"
The answer: there is a connection between them, the numbers are perfect.
I said: "okay if you got this connection between these two labels on the european wheel, will it serve also for the american wheel where there is a different number labels distribution?"
The answer: Numbers are perfect and no matter what location they have on the wheel, the ball must fall on it.
My reaction: close chat, never study numerology again.
In my views about the game, you must go either with the physics or with the events, but never with the study of the numbers' labels
per se.
And...you wrote:
"when you forget about numbers and focus in the "numerical events" generated by them, and their timing on the spin window, you find consistency;"
Numerical Events?
Could you clarify and expand this statement a little?
What are some of the specific numerical events we could focus on in our research?
(Once these are listed , those interested in this thread can then pick'n'choose what they want to work on)
Timing?
And what exactly do you mean by 'timing' in this context?
(I'm asking all this now because if I don't, others will at some later stage...)
Regarding tools you wrote:
"I mostly do like Bayes and code what I need on my own."
Oh dear.
Those without coding skills won't be able to participate in the research. That then throws the onus (and work) on the few (relatively speaking) with coding skills -- assuming they would want to share their findings.
Quote from: esoito on Oct 10, 08:34 PM 2010
Numerical Events?
Could you clarify and expand this statement a little?
When a number is spun it can be simply taken as: "#15 is spun" (label's game) *OR* it could be making a variety of numerical events, clear example:
Number #15 is spun, and it realized the
neighbours @ spin 12 event.
Number #15 is spun, and it realized a
symmetry @ spin 8 event.
Number #15 is spun, and it realized a
millioneighbor @ spin 10 event.
Quote from: esoito on Oct 10, 08:34 PM 2010Timing?
In my notation I use it like it <event> @ <spin>
This numerical events concept + timing isn't hard to grasp. In the "neighbors" it would be the program looking back after every spin and leaving a trail like:
neighbors@
7, neighbors@
5, neighbors@
10, neighbors@XYZ...
or if you prefer:
7,5,10,XY...(This makes a time-line for the event)
When the "looking back" for a specific event is producing values within the "belly" or "most common zone" of the statistical distribution, then this is the time to bet.
"The short term delivering within the long-term most likely values". Yes, in my observations these stretches of "good times" and "bad times" for an event do clump.
That's pretty much the timing concept. Putting the results of the events in a timeline and enabling the bets only on the most favorable trams, and disabling the event on the adverse ones (other events in a more favorable timing for them would take place as the ones generating viable bets).
Quote from: esoito on Oct 10, 08:34 PM 2010What are some of the specific numerical events we could focus on in our research?
You can make your own.
I have already expressed several, i.e.:
Millionieghbors (link:://rouletteforum.cc/bet-selection/VLS'-millioneighbors/)
Trillioneighbors
and you can recreate your own.
I don't own nor can possibly know all the events out there, there's absolute creative freedom to engineer them on a player-to-player basis!
Quote from: esoito on Oct 10, 08:41 PM 2010
That then throws the onus (and work) on the few (relatively speaking) with coding skills
Well, this means the forum's coders must work together to deliver something configurable for the users.
One thing that has discouraged me (and I'm sure others) is when a poster talks so far above the average member's head in regards to methods, systems and explanations.
Also, a poster needs to realize that some people are auditory and others are visual as far as comprehension of ideas are concerned. I, personally am a visual person so an EXAMPLE of ideas are very welcome.
Not all members are at the same level of learning and therefore a broader and simpler style of explanation would be more in order. Some terminologies are not well known.
I am very interested in this thread but it feels like you guys are talking a foreign language. No comprenda amigos.
Regards,
Scooby Doo
:(
Well, try to be specific on which concept(s) you don't grasp. You know there's great will to assist.
On the bright side, you don't need to even read to any of this to use the tool from the web; only need to be able to input a number and hit a submit button to use the finished tool.
If you can check email you'll be able to use it.
I guess this scenario is sort of a do-it-yourself versus sparing something for the finished project.
Still since I'm not claiming all events on my own, the do-it-yourself can still prove fun for the right people, just not to everyone.
Sorry Victor, it's late here and I was just doing a quick look at the forum before going to bed.
I don't have the habit to post before read the full thread, but this last post caught my attetion.
The system explained above is the one your tool will use? If it's I would very glad to test by hand until the tool isn't finish :)
Best regards,
Afonso
Quote from: A3on on Oct 10, 11:14 PM 2010
The system explained above is the one your tool will use?
That's part of it, obviously I'll reserve some aspects ;)
...but what I'm sharing I do hope can have value to some who appreciate it. :) :thumbsup:
Regards.
Thanks Victor for these posts.
You know that this is valuable to me and all the others in here. It is great to hear that I am on the right track.
That the tool had some of this I guess you have told before, else I have always thought so.
Some type of software in the future for us is what I am aiming for. To put some fellow coders around and help eachother out to create some to the forum members.
Quote from: VLS on Oct 10, 10:37 PM 2010
On the bright side, you don't need to even read to any of this to use the tool from the web; only need to be able to input a number and hit a submit button to use the finished tool.
If you can check email you'll be able to use it.
Yep I deffo concur :thumbsup:
What's interesting about this (and why I'm looking forward to testing Victor's program) is that he is targeting the "belly" of the bell curve, rather than one extreme or the other, which has been the traditional approach in roulette (hot numbers or cold numbers). Of these two schools of thought, the hot number approach is the most sensible, as any Advantage player will tell you.
No set of numbers (or groups of numbers) have an inherent advantage over any other(s), surely that should be obvious? Assuming a random wheel, then by definition there is no bias, and also spins are independent, so the occurrence of a hit on one set of numbers never indicates an increased likelihood of another set becoming active, contrary to the claims of the numerology crowd. However, all numbers (or sets) have their "time" , and I believe that's what Victor has tried to capitalise on.
Quote from: Bayes on Oct 11, 02:20 PM 2010
What's interesting about this (and why I'm looking forward to testing Victor's program) is that he is targeting the "belly" of the bell curve, rather than one extreme or the other
Like a fellow spanish-speaking player said once: If you are selling balloons, would you prefer to sell colored ones or to have a
shot at selling black balloons?
_____
Of course, if you know there will be an odd event requiring a large amount of black balloons, then it makes sense; but for the most day-to-day scenario, you are better off replenishing yourself from the colored ones that get actual demand over and over as a
regular event.
You'll make more money that way.
Another gem from Victor, that is entirely relevant to this thread:
link:://rouletteforum.cc/roulette-and-gambling-framework/short-term-certainties/ (link:://rouletteforum.cc/roulette-and-gambling-framework/short-term-certainties/)