link:://:.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=8763&forum=Roulette_Message_Board
Snowman/calebs exact words: playing this was reduces the house edge
Another "search"??
Ken
Interesting read, Thank you RG.
Now to keep the game going with Mr J-smooth
Quote from: MrJ on Oct 06, 12:40 AM 2016
Another "search"??
Ken
Nothing to do with you
Someone claimed betting this way lowered house edge
So i posted it for discussion
Time to talk roulette
Move along
A light progression can easily be used on 5 number betting
Checking zumma continuously betting the last 5 numbers that show have a hit pretty quickly
Test more tonight
I did not post the thread because mrJ was involved. I posted it because of the HE claim
I dont care if mickey mouse was the OP
Steve can you confirm or deny that this way of playing lowers the house edge
Please see link
Id like to know
Note: i did not post it because of the parties involved in the link. I posted it because i want to know if it has truth
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Oct 07, 08:03 AM 2016
Steve can you confirm or deny that this way of playing lowers the house edge
Please see link
Id like to know
Note: i did not post it because of the parties involved in the link. I posted it because i want to know if it has truth
Not sure what the method is.
Quote from: mogul397 on Oct 07, 03:23 PM 2016
Not sure what the method is.
Bet the last 5 numbers to show every spin
Caleb says it lowers the house edge
He made a new thread about it at the hell hole GF website
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Oct 07, 03:32 PM 2016Bet the last 5 numbers to show every spin
RG look to 8, dont the chinas think its a lucky #
RG have you looked to last 8
Heres the multi player #'s made 84 units
7
36
6
8
30
1
31
16
31
29
21
9
23
26
12
19
20
7
36
15
12
14
16
8
25
34
6
0
4
12
13
2
12
2
32
0
18
23
5
13
15
16
32
2
31
4
32
11
18
16
Bet previous 8 each spin?
I missed the 3 red numbers, but like most things it ends no good
Quote from: nottophammer on Oct 09, 01:37 PM 2016
Heres the multi player #'s made 84 units
7
36
6
8
30
1
31
16
2
5
16
31
29
21
9
23
26
12
19
20
7
36
15
12
14
16
8
25
34
6
0
4
12
13
2
12
2
32
0
18
23
5
13
15
16
32
2
31
4
32
11
18
16
So forget the 8 #'s crap. Here's the #'s from Steves multi player earlier today. KTF +74 spin 29.
The 1-4 number brigade might get +24
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Oct 07, 03:32 PM 2016Bet the last 5 numbers to show every spin. Caleb says it lowers the house edge
It would help if there is dealer signature and/or bias. If it were bias, the chance that the last 5 numbers were from real bias, or normal deviation, makes the effect from bias very small.
For example, consider 20 wheels where one has a significant bias. On 19 of the wheels, you bet based on the past 5 spins and end up losing with a -2.7% edge. Then on the one biased wheel, you have a +5% edge. So with one bet, the resulting edge is approximately:
((19 x -2.7) + (1 x 5)) / 20 = -2.135
So yes it can reduce the house edge.
A similar thing woiuld happen with dealer signature, although it would be much easier to determine if the repeated numbers are the probably result of dealer signature.
Take it a step further, and why limit yourself to just the last 5 numbers?
There is so much to beating roulette. It gets to the point where you see holes all through the game of roulette, and understand it really is a predictable game. But only in specific conditions, and they're not that rare. But taking advantage of every possible edge, then verifying the edge is legitimate, while keeping up with changing conditions, requires sophisticated and practical analysis.
I forgot you need to factor in the likelihood that the last 5 numbers may not even be the biased numbers. So you may be hitting the negative bias, which means the edge against you will be higher than -2.7%.
So say if there was a 1 pocket bias, you'd need to consider the math of the extra negative bias from the losing pockets. With everything considered, it would only help in very rare circumstances.
Putting it into perspective, say the bias was on 1st dozen (hypothetically). But the 2nd dozen spun most in recent spins, so you bet on it. Then the edge against you would be even greater than normal. Granted it would be more likely the 1st dozen would be selected because of the bias, and that's why you would have a very, very small reduction in edge. You'd need to do the math to know for sure, but I'm guessing you'd be lucky to get a 0.1-0.3% reduction in edge.
Quote from: Steve on Oct 09, 06:59 PM 2016
I forgot you need to factor in the likelihood that the last 5 numbers may not even be the biased numbers. So you may be hitting the negative bias, which means the edge against you will be higher than -2.7%.
So say if there was a 1 pocket bias, you'd need to consider the math of the extra negative bias from the losing pockets. With everything considered, it would only help in very rare circumstances.
This seems like a pretty negative comment. Feelings may have been hurt?
Ken
Ken, please stop trolling this thread. Please read my response on the other thread. I'm not interested in games. And yes the jizz is a sense of humor thing. I wont tolerate the crap but it doesnt bother me like it bothers you
I read caleb's claims and comments from turbo. Turbo, I'm sure if you did proper testing on real spins and bet on the last 5 numbers, you will find the edge is very slightly smaller than -2.7%. So what Caleb is saying is correct. But again I'd expect the reduction in edge to be something like 0.1-0.3% (maybe even less). I wouldnt call that a significant reduction though, but I dont think Caleb called it significant anyway.
I posted this simply because its roulette related
In response to this thread caleb started a thread at the hell hole forum saying it is weird but true
This is the discussion i want to have
The discussion: betting last 5 lowers HE
If its such a small difference then it isn't worth it
Why?
Blackjack basic strategy is .5 percent HE
Best out there. And still hard to beat
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Oct 09, 08:29 PM 2016If its such a small difference then it isn't worth it
It probably isnt worth it. But if you add a few simple parts to this strategy, then it might be worth it. For example, visual or sound confirmation of bias. Or checking attributes for dealer signature. Then you make better informed selections. But just having the blanket rule of betting last 5 numbers, at best, will only very slightly improve the odds. Not by anything significant.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Oct 09, 08:29 PM 2016Blackjack basic strategy is .5 percent HE. Best out there. And still hard to beat
If I had a 0.5% edge with roulette, I'd rather shoot myself in the head than play. That's a comparatively terrible edge. When the conditions are right in roulette, the edge can very, very easily be 5%. But more often it is between 30-50%. The problem, as it has always been, is avoiding detection. So to avoid detection, you sacrifice some edge. And your actual edge may be around 10-15% which is still far better than blackjack.
Many years ago Winkel posted at VLS with
stats which he claimed showed that the
best outcome was with betting on the last
eight.
Can't find it - perhaps he removed it.
However as with any method the conditions
have to be right. If the numbers coming up
are repeats....well, you know what'll happen.
So my number-one consideration with any
method is what's the procedure for knowing
if you're likely to win (advantage in other
(dirty to some)) words.
After all an advantage of 3% is enough.
Quote from: Ross on Oct 10, 10:52 AM 2016
Many years ago Winkel posted at VLS with
stats which he claimed showed that the
best outcome was with betting on the last
eight. can you remember the suggested way to bet the last 8. Vaddi way has been losing on many tests lately
Can't find it - perhaps he removed it.
However as with any method the conditions
have to be right. If the numbers coming up
are repeats....well, you know what'll happen.
So my number-one consideration with any
method is what's the procedure for knowing
if you're likely to win (advantage in other
(dirty to some)) words.
After all an advantage of 3% is enough.
This will work if the wheel is faulty.
I can in my spare time, create an app that you can test for numbers going 5 back up to 16 back you can run it against your own numbers.
It's not going to be any different.
Ive tried everything
Including: EC number bet
When 18 unique numbers show bet the other 18 then reset
Well, no need to write the app. Since you have already proved it.
Sorry but I don't recall if Winkel had any info about betting on
the last eight numbers.
Way back then when I was young I wrote a programme for
the last eight bet. The neat thing is that after you've got
your last eight numbers and made a few bets - or put in
a few more numbers - you can click on the "Reset" button
and it will reload sufficient numbers to give you - Hey Presto! -
the last eight numbers.
I recall that TwoCatSam gave this five stars at VLS.
Attached for your delectation...
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Oct 09, 02:00 PM 2016
Bet previous 8 each spin?
I'm of the opinion if indeed this kind of betting does really lower the house edge, better do it conservatively. I'd go for betting the 8 previous results but not straight betting on the numbers. I'd combine numbers close to each other on the layout into street, corner, splits, dstreet etc so as to minimize the amount I bet on each round. It's a safer approach in my opinion while testing the theory.