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Roulette-focused => Main Roulette Board => Topic started by: psimoes on Oct 06, 12:25 PM 2016

Title: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: psimoes on Oct 06, 12:25 PM 2016
Neglecting the Zero and the consequent unfair payouts, for the game to be completely fair the wheel should be spun by an independent entity. That´s right. Someone from the Government, from the authority that regulates the activity. Why must it be done by a casino employee? That´s like a football referee arbitrating the game and shooting for the goal at the same time, like a 12th player for the house team. Makes no sense to say the HE is only 2,7% when clearly it is not. Why don´t casinos let punters spin the wheel and throw the ball? Because we might cheat? Is that it? Why should we trust them then?
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: The General on Oct 06, 04:35 PM 2016
The "win" is actually much higher than what people expect because players aren't content with winning just a little bit.  The odds of the random gambler winning a vast sum of money- an amount that would make them feel content- are much much higher than they are for a player attempting to only win a little bit.  Some won't stop gambling until they've made a 100k, or until they've lost their $200. The odds of them being that successful are astoundingly low.  Consequently a player will continue to gamble and recycle their small win until it becomes a loss.   

Over the years, many gambling authors have successfully made this point.  John Patrick is a good example. 

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: dimsun on Oct 06, 09:08 PM 2016
Quote from: The General on Oct 06, 04:35 PM 2016
The "win" is actually much higher than what people expect because players aren't content with winning just a little bit.  The odds of the random gambler winning a vast sum of money- an amount that would make them feel content- are much much higher than they are for a player attempting to only win a little bit.  Some won't stop gambling until they've made a 100k, or until they've lost their $200. The odds of them being that successful are astoundingly low.  Consequently a player will continue to gamble and recycle their small win until it becomes a loss.   

Over the years, many gambling authors have successfully made this point.  John Patrick is a good example.

Hehe, the germinal make good post.  need print and frame, rare thing valuable.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: iggiv on Oct 07, 12:56 AM 2016
Psimoes, do you really believe that if "someone from the Gov't" spins the wheel and throws the ball you will have more chances to win?

Maybe you are right. But only in a case when "someone from the gov't" will place the ball directly where you ask him to. Because he doesn't give a damn, he is a Gov't employee, right? Nobody is gonna fire him if he has some fun letting you win :)

But if he plays by the rules and does exactly what he is supposed to do to make the game random, you will have exactly the same chances to win, be he from Gov't, from the casino or from a circus. I will tell you even more. If he is just a guy passing by who has the ability to throw the ball correctly you will have exactly the same chances. Even if he is not a human at all. Say he is a baboon from jungle which does not even know what he is doing, but still throws the ball correctly.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: psimoes on Oct 07, 01:34 AM 2016
Quote from: The General on Oct 06, 04:35 PM 2016
The "win" is actually much higher than what people expect because players aren't content with winning just a little bit.  The odds of the random gambler winning a vast sum of money- an amount that would make them feel content- are much much higher than they are for a player attempting to only win a little bit.  Some won't stop gambling until they've made a 100k, or until they've lost their $200. The odds of them being that successful are astoundingly low.  Consequently a player will continue to gamble and recycle their small win until it becomes a loss.   

Over the years, many gambling authors have successfully made this point.  John Patrick is a good example. 


I agree, General. Good post by focusing on the win.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: psimoes on Oct 07, 02:05 AM 2016
Quote from: iggiv on Oct 07, 12:56 AM 2016
Psimoes, do you really believe that if "someone from the Gov't" spins the wheel and throws the ball you will have more chances to win?

Maybe you are right. But only in a case when "someone from the gov't" will place the ball directly where you ask him to. Because he doesn't give a damn, he is a Gov't employee, right? Nobody is gonna fire him if he has some fun letting you win :)

But if he plays by the rules and does exactly what he is supposed to do to make the game random, you will have exactly the same chances to win, be he from Gov't, from the casino or from a circus. I will tell you even more. If he is just a guy passing by who has the ability to throw the ball correctly you will have exactly the same chances. Even if he is not a human at all. Say he is a baboon from jungle which does not even know what he is doing, but still throws the ball correctly.
Roulette is a negative expectation game. I´m not saying we´d have more chances to win on a truly fair wheel, I´m saying there would be less chances for us to lose!

The point of the topic is not to start a petition. Whether it should be an incorruptible government agent or a monkey or a Jehovah witness, well that is not gonna happen. The point is all the probabilities, equations and statistics lack important data. 2,73% looks fine on paper but it´s not realistic when a SOB is constantly trying to manipulate the outcomes against you.

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RayManZ on Oct 07, 03:00 AM 2016
But is it posible for a well trained roulette dealer to NOT hit section on the wheel?

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Turner on Oct 07, 03:19 AM 2016
The HE is 2.7%. The casinos dont make a living on that and they dont make a living on dealers spinning cleverly either
They make their money on the hold which is around 20%+
This is gamblers recycling their winnings over and over
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Azim on Oct 07, 03:20 AM 2016
Looks like this video has flaws. The speed of the wheel is the same.  Keep an eye on the speed of the ball as well.

From my count the ball drops after about 19-20 rotations.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: psimoes on Oct 07, 04:13 AM 2016
Well one time I was betting double streets and losing due just to bad luck. The dealer had been playing along by throwing the ball and spinning the wheel fast. I take it no one there would guess where the ball would land, so it was random. OK. After my first win I was still down by a few units, so I didn´t tip. The gentleman gave a quick look as if saying "no tipping eh?"  and spun and threw really slow, although not so slow that it would be ilegal and I´d protest. Well the ball didn´t scatter at all and landed straight on the green pocket.
How about that? The little guy was sniggering. Needless to say I left the table. As I was grabbing my remaining chips I looked at him in the eye, calmly said "I know where you live" and walked away. I bet he farted.
Then I woke up. Heheh. The reality is I had been reading the forum and some sites on roulette and just said to myself "well, the house edge, you know? Comes with the gambling" and didn´t leave. Kept playing the "winning system" until I had no money left.
True story bro.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: psimoes on Oct 07, 04:24 AM 2016
Quote from: Turner on Oct 07, 03:19 AM 2016
The HE is 2.7%. The casinos dont make a living on that and they dont make a living on dealers spinning cleverly either
They make their money on the hold which is around 20%+
This is gamblers recycling their winnings over and over

OK, probably the title is misleading. Instead of HE read The Odds Against The Player. Is it possible to edit the title?

The point is not on how casinos make a living, it´s how gamblers might destroy theirs by not taking other factors into account.

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Turner on Oct 07, 04:50 AM 2016
title changed :thumbsup:
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: psimoes on Oct 07, 04:57 AM 2016
Glad this subject link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=18101.msg166713;topicseen#msg166713 didn´t develop. I´ll have to admit under this new regard it´s just nonsense. Why? By analysing that session at Wesbaden Spielbank, if the Tiers hit so many times after the Voisins it´s because the highest bets were on the Zero and the dealers successfully avoided that sector.

As the session goes on and punters change their targets accordingly, at the end of the day all the numbers add up evenly. The Law of Large Numbers takes care of that and it will look natural on paper, that the odds appear unchanged, but to the individual gambler it might not be so.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: psimoes on Oct 07, 04:58 AM 2016
Quote from: Turner on Oct 07, 04:50 AM 2016
title changed :thumbsup:
Thanks  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Steve on Oct 07, 06:47 AM 2016
Quote from: RayManZ on Oct 07, 03:00 AM 2016But is it posible for a well trained roulette dealer to NOT hit section on the wheel?

See link:://:.roulettephysics.com/can-roulette-dealers-make-you-lose/ which explains everything in detail
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Turner on Oct 07, 07:27 AM 2016
Quote from: Steve on Oct 07, 06:47 AM 2016
See link:://:.roulettephysics.com/can-roulette-dealers-make-you-lose/ which explains everything in detail

I dont often assume, but I assumed a dealer couldnt really make much difference to the outcomes of a wheel

I have never seen this link before, but It pretty much says that. I will be guided by it as you know your stuff.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 07, 07:34 AM 2016
I'd have to say i do not believe in dealer signature
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Tamino on Oct 07, 08:21 AM 2016
There are exceptions to ignoring dealers signature.At Dublinbet.com    pay attention to Frank B., Normundinho, and Anne

Those cats are  predictable.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: The General on Oct 07, 08:59 AM 2016
QuoteI'd have to say i do not believe in dealer signature

Steve's explanation is pretty good.  I especially like the throwing rocks over a fence explanation.

Unless you have your own wheel and access to some good slow motion videos it's going to seem impossible. 

There are some good videos on Youtube that you can watch.

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Tamino on Oct 07, 09:53 AM 2016
General,

I have noticed Christian Kaisan  on Wiesbaden  videos was betting 9 number VOISINS, Dominant  number in he center and 4 on each side.

Quite a change from a single number.  More conservative at his age now. Only $ 45 on the table per selected spin . Bankroll EU$ 2K .


Smart cat.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 07, 09:55 AM 2016
Quote from: Tamino on Oct 07, 09:53 AM 2016
General,

I have noticed Christian Kaisan  on Wiesbaden  videos was betting  betting 9 number VOISINS, Dominant  number in he center and 4 on each side.

Quite a change from a single number.  More conservative at his age now. Only $ 45 on the table per selected spin . Bankroll EU$ 2K .


Smart cat.

Is this someone famous playing on dublinbet?

2nd question, being in the US how do u access dublin?

Thanks ND
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 07, 10:01 AM 2016
ND i have toyed eith betting the last number to hit plus r 4 neighbors on each side

...

Further investigation
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Tamino on Oct 07, 10:54 AM 2016
RG,


Kaisan is a  well known German  roulette player who played in top casinos all over the world. He had been banned  at several casinos but the casinos all lost his law suits. They had to pay him and  drop their ban

htAbout 3 years ago he flew   from Germany  to Macau. He did not like what he saw and did not play  a  single spin. That what I call a real PRO.


link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=jNFEOxn1ePY
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 07, 11:17 AM 2016
When he played "voisins" how did he choose the #    ??
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Tamino on Oct 07, 12:40 PM 2016
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Oct 07, 11:17 AM 2016
When he played "voisins" how did he choose the #    ??



I believe he  is not in VB. But I have observed  that he was  was apparently recording numbers   into   a  note book.
The General  told me  he  once  met him at the Bellagio in Vegas when both were at the same table..


Kaisan  once mentioned that he is also a stockholder in  Bellagio .

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: winkel on Oct 07, 12:55 PM 2016
Quote from: Tamino on Oct 07, 12:40 PM 2016
I believe he  is not in VB. But I have observed  that he was  was apparently recording numbers   into   a  note book.

You know nothing about what he is doing.
He doesn´t record numbers. I know what he is doing there.  >:D

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Tamino on Oct 07, 02:42 PM 2016
Winkel,

I stated   what I have observed ,  That`s all   and assumed  they were numbers. Anyone with half their brain  tied behind their back could see my assumption.

Winkel you are a  typical German Besserwessie.



You have a  very inflated EGO>

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Drazen on Oct 07, 02:54 PM 2016
Quote from: Tamino on Oct 07, 10:54 AM 2016

to Macau. He did not like what he saw and did not play  a  single spin. That what I call a real PRO


Exactly the same what Flatino said and did when he visited Macau few years back too. He said the wheels where too fast and the ball bounces in a very weird way. Then he played baccarat for the whole week.

Cheers
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: The General on Oct 07, 03:13 PM 2016
Kaisan is a visual ballistic player, and some bias.

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: mogul397 on Oct 07, 03:16 PM 2016
Quote from: psimoes on Oct 06, 12:25 PM 2016
Neglecting the Zero and the consequent unfair payouts, for the game to be completely fair the wheel should be spun by an independent entity. That´s right. Someone from the Government, from the authority that regulates the activity. Why must it be done by a casino employee? That´s like a football referee arbitrating the game and shooting for the goal at the same time, like a 12th player for the house team. Makes no sense to say the HE is only 2,7% when clearly it is not. Why don´t casinos let punters spin the wheel and throw the ball? Because we might cheat? Is that it? Why should we trust them then?

The HE is like walking up a pile of sand. The sand gives way and you just work harder
to get to the top.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Tamino on Oct 07, 03:17 PM 2016
General ,


That what I also thought but was not so sure.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Tamino on Oct 08, 11:55 AM 2016
Quote from: The General on Oct 07, 03:13 PM 2016
Kaisan is a visual ballistic player, and some bias.


According to an  interview given by Kaisan his as well as others expert advice  on forums is  labeled  being reactionary  to the  new   breed of on line players and Arcade  graduates.


Which other forum comes to my mind ?      Really ?


Those  reactioknary elements  must be purged  to the fullest extend of OUR  rules even if we have to make new oknes. .
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: The General on Oct 08, 12:40 PM 2016
Most experienced players view the arcade players as being a special kind of stupid.  For them we now have the triple zero roulette wheel.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 08, 12:47 PM 2016
Quote from: The General on Oct 08, 12:40 PM 2016
Most experienced players view the arcade players as being a special kind of stupid.  For them we now have the triple zero roulette wheel.

I agree with you

But I'm not as harsh

There are regulars at resorts playing video roulette successfully

When were you there last?

New airball machines
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: Tamino on Oct 08, 01:03 PM 2016
Quote from: The General on Oct 08, 12:40 PM 2016
Most experienced players view the arcade players as being a special kind of stupid.  For them we now have the triple zero roulette wheel.

By popular demand we now give  you triple zeros . No longer 1 or 2 zeros  but  triple zeros to hedge your 9 numbers

Presented by your friendly neighborhood racino.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: The General on Oct 08, 01:08 PM 2016
QuoteWhen were you there last?



Not long ago.  And I will be there again next month.


Most people dream of becoming an AP player and playing professionally. Unfortunately times are changing and your opportunities are evaporating, and for reasons of which you never dreamed.

1. Club cards.  Before long it will become mandatory that you have one to gamble and to cash out.  You won't be able to cash a ticket even in an automated machine unless you scan your card.  Consequently, you're not going to be able to win dirt, let alone a few hundred k over time without being singled out.  Contrary to popular believe casinos don't like winners.  If you consistently win, you're gone.   The gaming card provides them with an efficient way of spotting you, and removing you.  These electronic cards also open the door for you to be charged with a whole host of new crimes if you attempt to use a friends card in order to collect wins form the casinos.  If you play and electronic version of roulette and win too much over time, then they could even attempt to charge you with computer hacking.  And using someone else's card, well that could lead to wire fraud, etc...

2. In Sweden, Norway, and other parts of EU you guys are eagerly doing away currency in favor of a more progressive electronic currency.  All I can say is, you folks are suckers.  Now, not only can your gov track you, but your casinos can carefully track exactly how much you're winning, since the only way they can pay you is electronically.  Furthermore you're paying fees on your electronic transactions in ways that you never imagined.  Also, what are you folks going to do in the event of an electronic blackout without currency?  :o

3. Playing online is foolish.  Read the fine print.  They can refuse payout for so many different reasons.  I have friends that play AP online and have found it very difficult to actually collect their winnings.  After winning small amounts consistently, the casinos simply shut down their account, and the casinos attempts to keep their winnings, and in some cases even the gambler's front money.  It can take several months to collect.  The arcades are just as foolish.  Everything their is tracked electronically.  If you think you're going to win any real money their, think again.

4. New gambler's are willing to play retarded games, like the triple zero roulette wheel.  The actuaries and casinos know that the current generation of gambler's is more naive than ever, and they're eager to take advantage of their stupidity.  Favorable games are disappearing in favor of the new automated games with shiny bells and whistles, designed to keep the shorter attention spans engaged. 





Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 08, 01:09 PM 2016
My racino, as caleb knows, has single zero wheels

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 08, 01:12 PM 2016
Quote from: The General on Oct 08, 01:08 PM 2016


Not long ago.  And I will be there again next month.


Most people dream of becoming an AP player and playing professionally. Unfortunately times are changing and your opportunities are evaporating, and for reasons of which you never dreamed.

1. Club cards.  Before long it will become mandatory that you have one to gamble and to cash out.  You won't be able to cash a ticket even in an automated machine unless you scan your card.  Consequently, you're not going to be able to win dirt, let alone a few hundred k over time without being singled out.  Contrary to popular believe casinos don't like winners.  If consistently win, you're gone.  The gaming card provides them with an efficient way of spotting you, and removing you.  These electronic cards also open the door for you to be charged with a whole host of new crimes if you attempt to use a friends card in order to collect wins form the casinos.

2. In Sweden, Norway, and other parts of EU you guys are eagerly doing away currency in favor of a more progressive electronic currency.  All I can say is, you folks are suckers.  Now, not only can your gov track you, but your casinos can carefully track exactly how much you're winning, since the only way they can pay you is electronically.  Furthermore you're paying fees on your electronic transactions in ways that you never imagined.  Also, what are you folks going to do in the event of an electronic blackout without currency?  :o

3. Playing online is foolish.  Read the fine print.  They can refuse payout for so many different reasons.  I have friends that play AP online and have found it very difficult to actually collect their winnings.  After winning small amounts consistently, the casinos simply shut down their account, and the casinos attempts to keep their winnings, and in some cases even the gambler's front money.  It can take several months to collect.  The arcades are just as foolish.  Everything their is tracked electronically.  If you think you're going to win any real money their, think again.

4. New gambler's are willing to play retarded games, like the triple zero roulette wheel.  The actuaries and casinos know that the current generation of gambler's is more naive than ever, and they're eager to take advantage of their stupidity.  Favorable games are disappearing in favor of the new automated games with shiny bells and whistles, designed to keep the shorter attention spans engaged.

Next month?

We should meet

Id love to know which wheels are biased

Ill buy you a drink and we can hug it out
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: The General on Oct 08, 01:13 PM 2016
QuoteMy racino, as caleb knows, has single zero wheels

It has ONE, and unfortunately they plan on taking it out later this year.

Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 08, 01:13 PM 2016
Which one

It has more then one i think 3
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: The General on Oct 08, 01:15 PM 2016
The center machine in the Inter. room downstairs behind the deafening bar.  They plan on replacing all three of those machines.
Title: Re: The Odds Against The Player may be higher than we think
Post by: RouletteGhost on Oct 08, 01:18 PM 2016
Blatantly biased roulette wheels at resorts?

Tell me now i can be there by 2

And in december the islandia casino opens 15 mins from me