The casino has the edge. However, we have the choice to bet. We can skip bets. We can raise and lower our bets at anytime. And we can change what we're betting on at any time.
In my opinion, the casino edge is not what's causing us to lose. It's just a small percentage. I look at it as a 5% tax for playing the game. What causes us to lose is the variance. I believe the only way to overcome variance, is with the right bet selection and progression. Of course not a double up as you lose....more like a slow steady grind.
What's your thoughts? Can the right progression overcome the house edge?
I'm inclined to agree with you on EC's. As for the others, the multiplier
should be enough to profit flat-bet (with the occasional losing session).
I'm thinking the smallest bet you can start with is 1 unit on a EC....1 unit wins 1 unit. If you bet 1 unit on a single number and hit, then parley the winnings then 2 units will win you $1332. And there are hundreds of bets between these 2 that you can make to win or break even.
Basically, you can stay on 1 unit bets for 1332 spins before you even raise the wager to 2 units
Quote from: Scarface on May 19, 06:59 PM 2017
The casino has the edge. However, we have the choice to bet. We can skip bets. We can raise and lower our bets at anytime. And we can change what we're betting on at any time.
In my opinion, the casino edge is not what's causing us to lose. It's just a small percentage. I look at it as a 5% tax for playing the game.
Correct, it's the cost of playing.
What causes us to lose is the variance.
Yup.
I believe the only way to overcome variance, is with the right bet selection and progression. Of course not a double up as you lose....more like a slow steady grind.
Everyone who's gone down this progression path have yet to find a way round variance. It's just not possible, deep down we all know it but we keep knocking our heads on the wall.
Improve the accuracy of our bet selection is the only way.
What's your thoughts? Can the right progression overcome the house edge?
Ofc no. If it can many of us will be rich by now.
Instead of fighting against variance, why not expect it and use it to our advantage.
Let say we are betting for line 1 to hit (1,2,3). The payout is 11 to 1. As long as it hits in the first 12 spins we're in the money. But what if it don't? Now we'll bet on line 1 to hit twice in a row...if it wins the first bet, parlay the winnings and bet again....this pays out 156 to 1. So now as long as it happens in 156 spins we're good. If not, bet for 3 hits in a row (parlay the winnings). This pays out 2184 to 1. Remember, we're still only betting 1 unit a spin.
With the parlay bet, we're keeping bet size to a minimum and once variance swings back in your direction (which it will) then cha ching :)
It does . Not only 1% or 2%. But more than 50%.
Quote from: Scarface on May 20, 12:11 AM 2017
Instead of fighting against variance, why not expect it and use it to our advantage.
Let say we are betting for line 1 to hit (1,2,3). The payout is 11 to 1. As long as it hits in the first 12 spins we're in the money. But what if it don't? Now we'll bet on line 1 to hit twice in a row...if it wins the first bet, parlay the winnings and bet again....this pays out 156 to 1. So now as long as it happens in 156 spins we're good. If not, bet for 3 hits in a row (parlay the winnings). This pays out 2184 to 1. Remember, we're still only betting 1 unit a spin.
With the parlay bet, we're keeping bet size to a minimum and once variance swings back in your direction (which it will) then cha ching :)
What if variance does not swing back within that number of spins ?
Use this simple tracker to see the variance visually.
The house edge of 5% on a 00 wheel will slowly eat away at your bankroll. BUT I'm confident that when variance does swing back in your favor, it can overcome the house edge. Variance is what should be feared. Instead of fearing variance, use it to your advantagr. If we do not use a steep martingale double as you loose progression, but instead use a parlay then at some point we will have to win (in theory)..just a matter of time
Quote from: Scarface on May 19, 06:59 PM 2017
What causes us to lose is the variance.
Finally some real topics that can help people! Everyone crying about zero, but 0 isnt what beats you! The negative payout isnt what beats you!
If you cant beat/control the variance you will lose. There are ways to overcome it!!!
Quote from: MoneyT101 on May 21, 12:18 AM 2017If you cant beat/control the variance you will lose. There are ways to overcome it!!!
Thanks.
What are your ways? Would you like to share it please. Thanks.
Quote from: MoneyT101 on May 21, 12:18 AM 2017
Finally some real topics that can help people! Everyone crying about zero, but 0 isnt what beats you! The negative payout isnt what beats you!
If you cant beat/control the variance you will lose. There are ways to overcome it!!!
If you are betting the outside group of numbers (ECs, doz, and col), the zeros are a definite contributor to the variance.
If you are playing in Euro casinos and betting on the ECs, then rules -- like "la partage"and ën prison" -- do mitigate the effects of the zero somewhat (though, not for the doz and col).
But, in US casinos, the above player-friendly rules are not there and the 0/00 do make a decent contribution to the variance for all outside bets. You can deny that, but you will do so at your own peril.
I do not know if I should publish it, but my friend has simulated the progression of Mike on the nozero wheel.
link:://betselection.cc/even-chance-8/how-to-get-an-edge-flat-betting-(in-theory)/msg22774/#msg22774
In reality, I tried this approach at betvoyager no zero roulette.
And guess what?
I always played black, in first 300 spins, I had 12 and 13 red series in a row.
Big hole, after 3k spins I am -140 units on minus, I have never even approached zero.
Color series with much more probability than they should.
I do not know if I still have time to continue, and more and more believe that achieving the advantage in the simulations is unreasonable, because in fact even supposedly honest casinos will not give us a win.
Quote from: sugtips on May 21, 01:22 AM 2017
Thanks.
What are your ways? Would you like to share it please. Thanks.
I already shared a very good method, as a matter of fact so good. I regret sharing in the forum 😅
Quote from: DoctorSudoku on May 21, 01:32 AM 2017
But, in US casinos, the above player-friendly rules are not there and the 0/00 do make a decent contribution to the variance for all outside bets. You can deny that, but you will do so at your own peril.
So here's an example why I say what I say. I play 200 spins on an EC.
This is about avg with no progression
Lose 22
Wins 68
Total bets 90
Tell me how much did the 0/00 affect me?
Quote from: ozon on May 21, 08:48 AM 2017
I do not know if I should publish it, but my friend has simulated the progression of Mike on the nozero wheel.
link:://betselection.cc/even-chance-8/how-to-get-an-edge-flat-betting-(in-theory)/msg22774/#msg22774
i want rx code pls
I received only a graph
Quote from: ozon on May 21, 09:00 AM 2017
I always played black, in first 300 spins, I had 12 and 13 red series in a row.
Big hole, after 3k spins I am -140 units on minus, I have never even approached zero.
Color series with much more probability than they should.
I do not know if I still have time to continue, and more and more believe that achieving the advantage in the simulations is unreasonable, because in fact even supposedly honest casinos will not give us a win.
This is what I'm talking about when I say use variance to your advantage. We should expect extremes like this. Seeing 12 or 13 red series in a row in 300 spins may seem unlucky, or extreme, but is quiet common.
I just ran a gap test on loothog for 300 spins. Looking at all 6 even bets (red,black,odd,even,high,low). In 300 spins, at least 1 or more of these even bets had a streak of at least 9 or more! I ran the test for 300 spins for 10 more times.....all 10 tests show there was at least 1 or more even bets with a streak of 9+.
So, instead of fighting variance why not let it work to our advantage. One way of doing this is parlay our winnings on a streak. Flat betting 1 unit, and parlaying the winnings, for 9 bets will win you 1022 units!
Quote from: MoneyT101 on May 21, 09:32 AM 2017
I already shared a very good method, as a matter of fact so good. I regret sharing in the forum 😅
Thanks.
You do not understand my post.
Show me a real advantage, a parlay does not give you an advantage in long run.
Try your strategy on 20k spins on real rng no zero roulette, and you see that you dont have any edge.
In my post I show you the real edge, but in reality the casino does not allow winning, becose variance is always negative.
Quote from: ozon on May 21, 10:32 AM 2017
You do not understand my post.
Show me a real advantage, a parlay does not give you an advantage in long run.
Try your strategy on 20k spins on real rng no zero roulette, and you see that you dont have any edge.
In my post I show you the real edge, but in reality the casino does not allow winning, becose variance is always negative.
Parlay is like Martingale, in that it will win eventually (in theory). If betting red using a Martingale double up progression, red has to come up at some point in time...hopefully, before bankroll is depleted or table limits are reached.
Same goes for parlay. That extreme sequence of x number of reds will come in at some point given enough time. But at least you're only flat betting with your money.
Not claiming an edge. Both will work in theory.
Again, I wanted to continue my test on real terms.
Everything I play real money, I did not even do 500 spins, 13 reds.
Drowdawn -200 units. Rng is great.
Bad variance continuation.
Quote from: ozon on May 21, 11:56 AM 2017
Again, I wanted to continue my test on real terms.
Everything I play real money, I did not even do 500 spins, 13 reds.
Drowdawn -200 units. Rng is great.
Bad variance continuation.
I'm not sure of how you're playing, or your progression. But I had a thought on this. What if you used the same progression, but bet on both red and black. Not sure if this will work. Basically, you'll be betting on an extreme event to happen on either side.
Let's say I was playing 1 unit on Red and 1 unit on Black for every spin for 300 spins. Total bets would be 600 units of my own money. So, if either red or black have a streak of 9 hits in a row I win 1022 units (parlay)....and that's playing both even chances.
I know you're not using a parlay progression, but it might be worth seeing how it would work playing both red/black with whatever progression you are using.
The simulations were made on a nozero wheel, and gave a 1.2% advantage over the casino.
Only nozero roulette is betvoyager rng, I had hoped it was a little honest.
But in reality it is a joke.
I will not try to play anymore, for money because it works as a slot machine.
They writes, they have equal odds. Then why strategy with edge give minus.
Sorry it didn't work out Ozon. I've never played online casino. Not real sure if I trust it. Maybe if it was legalized and regulated in the states, I probably would play
Two facts I know for sure about Roulette
1. There will always be an imbalance.
An imbalance will exist 99.999% in roulette. Look at any bet and it's counterbet (ex. Red vs black) and it will be imbalanced...one will almost always exceed the other.
2. What most consider extreme events,
happen quiet often and are not extreme at all.
You can walk up to the table and put your money on black, and see 9 reds show up back to back. Happens all the time. Last time I played, the marquee showing the last 20 spins we're all from the 1st dozen except one.
Only problem is knowing what bet the imbalance will occur on. I was thinking, maybe it's possible to play both sides using a progression so when an imbalance does occur it will create a profit. Kind of like 2 players at the table betting the opposite even bet with a progression...one will be winning big, while the other is losing. Is it possible to create arbitrage here? Any thoughts?
Quote from: Scarface on May 21, 05:02 PM 2017
Two facts I know for sure about Roulette
1. There will always be an imbalance.
An imbalance will exist 99.999% in roulette. Look at any bet and it's counterbet (ex. Red vs black) and it will be imbalanced...one will almost always exceed the other.
2. What most consider extreme events,
happen quiet often and are not extreme at all.
You can walk up to the table and put your money on black, and see 9 reds show up back to back. Happens all the time. Last time I played, the marquee showing the last 20 spins we're all from the 1st dozen except one.
Only problem is knowing what bet the imbalance will occur on. I was thinking, maybe it's possible to play both sides using a progression so when an imbalance does occur it will create a profit. Kind of like 2 players at the table betting the opposite even bet with a progression...one will be winning big, while the other is losing. Is it possible to create arbitrage here? Any thoughts?
Yes there is, it was being done in baccarat and now my casino doesn't allow a play on both sides.
Only way to do it now is with a partner and undercover.
Quote from: MoneyT101 on May 21, 09:48 AM 2017
So here's an example why I say what I say. I play 200 spins on an EC.
This is about avg with no progression
Lose 22
Wins 68
Total bets 90
Tell me how much did the 0/00 affect me?
I will share with you my experience betting single doz/col and double doz/col. I employ various bet selection strategies that I employ on a hit-and-run basis (and with flat bets).
I have consistently noted that my winning sessions are those where the zeros either did not appear at all or they appeared less frequently than what they should according to probability theory.
For my losing sessions, the exact opposite is nearly always the case -- the zeros appear more frequently than what you would expect probability theory-wise.
I am sure that it would be the same were I to bet on the ECs (as I mentioned before, I prefer betting on single doz/col and double doz/col).
For me, the appearance or non-appearance of the zeros absolutely make a noticeable difference when I am playing the outside group bets on the US double zero wheel.
Quote from: MoneyT101 on May 21, 05:16 PM 2017
Yes there is, it was being done in baccarat and now my casino doesn't allow a play on both sides.
Only way to do it now is with a partner and undercover.
That's odd they wouldn't allow that. My casino doesn't care as far as roulette goes. Of course there are ways to disguise your bet to get around that
Quote from: DoctorSudoku on May 21, 05:21 PM 2017
I will share with you my experience betting single doz/col and double doz/col. I employ various bet selection strategies that I employ on a hit-and-run basis (and with flat bets).
I have consistently noted that my winning sessions are those where the zeros either did not appear at all or they appeared less frequently than what they should according to probability theory.
For my losing sessions, the exact opposite is nearly always the case -- the zeros appear more frequently than what you would expect probability theory-wise.
I am sure that it would be the same were I to bet on the ECs (as I mentioned before, I prefer betting on single doz/col and double doz/col).
For me, the appearance or non-appearance of the zeros absolutely make a noticeable difference when I am playing the outside group bets on the US double zero wheel.
So would you say that the 0 affects a player more who bets EC'S or Dozens, than it would a player who bets single numbers or splits?
Theoretically speaking, the 0/00 should have the same negative effects for both the outside and inside bets.
I have real life experience with the baneful effects of the 0/00 on the outside bets (as per my recorded observations for winning versus losing sessions) and that's what I narrated above in my previous message.
Quote from: Scarface on May 21, 05:02 PM 2017
I was thinking, maybe it's possible to play both sides using a progression so when an imbalance does occur it will create a profit. Kind of like 2 players at the table betting the opposite even bet with a progression...one will be winning big, while the other is losing. Is it possible to create arbitrage here? Any thoughts?
Scarface,
The biggest problem with betting on both sides simultaneously is that the zeros (when one of them appears) will kill both bets.
You can mitigate the effects of the appearance of the zeros somewhat by doing "differential betting."
Progression doesnt change anything. If say you double up after losses, all you're doing is making separate bets on separate spins but wagering different amounts.
Double up after wins is the same as double up after loss, the bet size increases but both don't change anything.