I watched a really interesting documentary on you-tube tonight about the Spanish family who won one and a half million dollars exploiting biased wheels throughout Europe and latterly in Las Vegas.
There was a lot of useful information for anyone not familiar with the procedures used to look for bias.
For instance, Gonzalo used a team of 6 people to record thousands of spins from a wheel.
One point he made which interested me was that a lot of biased wheels contained up to 9 biased numbers.
He claimed his edge on single zero wheels was double the edge that the casino enjoys over players who have no advantage. Even allowing for this large edge, the family still lost over 80,000 on one particular night. He did say however, that although they may lose over one or two nights, they never showed a loss over a period of a week.
The reason I am mentioning any of this is because of the recession we are experiencing at the moment. It would not surprise me if many casinos are not investing in new equipment because of a drop in turnover and also it may be that the maintainence of equipment also suffers in harsher economic times. So now could be a good opportunity for anybody who frequents casinos daily to chart a few thousand numbers and see if anything out of the ordinary turns up.
Interesting post!
"It would not surprise me if many casinos are not investing in new equipment because of a drop in turnover and also it may be that the maintainence of equipment also suffers in harsher economic times. "
An interesting point.
This Spanish group was obviously onto something, although with all the publicity did their edge disappear very soon and very quickly?
Are they still 'active'?
The data-gathering the group needed to do must have been a bit of a nightmare. A good lesson in persistence. ;)
They wrote a book telling the mechanics of the system :thumbsup:
Some youtube vids about them:
link:://:.youtube.com/results?search_query=Breaking+Vegas+-+The+Roulette+Assault+&aq=f (link:://:.youtube.com/results?search_query=Breaking+Vegas+-+The+Roulette+Assault+&aq=f)
And they have their channel here:
link:://:.youtube.com/user/LOSPELAYOS (link:://:.youtube.com/user/LOSPELAYOS)
Cheers!
Vic
Thank you Victor :thumbsup:
All this happened in the early 90's but I would still think there are many opportunities out there today for someone prepared to put the work in and look for these wheels.
A lot of the casinos I frequent are now 24/7. They are spinning the wheels every minute of every day because of the link up to the terminals that people enjoy sitting at and playing.
So you could actually argue that the wear and tear on some of these wheels is even worse now than it was back then.
So, are we interested in dissenting opinions on this or are we just going to accept it as fact?
Before I'm shut out on "edit", I'll post this.
At around six minutes into the fifth film, the narrator says he is only betting on 8 and 31. Then it shows the man placing his bets on many more numbers than 8 and 31. Don't you have to ask why?
If these people were going to make this film, you'd think they would co-ordinate so that the player would be betting what the narrator said. Or you'd think they would proof-watch the damn thing!!
Neither!!
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Nov 01, 07:52 PM 2010
So, are we interested in dissenting opinions on this or are we just going to accept it as fact?
Hello dear Sam, can you please elaborate on your dissent?
Pelayo's foundations for BIAS play are safe and sound as far as I know :)
p.s. good to debate with you again!
Victor
I don't know about dissenting opinions, but the family won several court injunctions to allow them back into the casino in Spain when they kept getting asked to leave by management.
Then as word got around Europe, they found they were not welcome in most places.
There are many documented cases throughout history of people taking advantage of wheels which have exhibited a bias due to wear and tear.
There are also cases which are not so well documented. It is not really in the casinos interests to let people know what may present them with a viable opportunity to gain an edge over the game of roulette.
I sometimes think that all this new electronic gadgetry that they have hooked up to the wheel is more for show than anything else. A bit like dummy security cameras.
The fact is that things wear out eventually after a lot of use. Why would roulette wheels be any different.
Just as an aside, 'so called' respected gambling author Frank Scoblete says that you will not find any biased wheels anywhere today but then goes on to comment in another article about dealers signature.
"Some dealers can also select a given area of the wheel they wish to hit and can, more often than not, hit it."
This kind of confirms to me at least that biased wheels are alive and well. ;D
OK, let me just say this is one thing I would personally have to see to believe. And I would have to see it for an extended period of time, not a few hundred spins. I once saw #35 hit about six out of twelve times, but that did not mean the wheel was biased toward the 35.
Just don't believe it. Believe in life in outer space; don't believe in biased wheels.
Sam
...... an dealer has as much change to hit an area of their choossing as an VB player has. It all depens on how the ball falls. If the conditions are right and the ball falls right away inn the pocket then yes, but if the conditions are not right then the ball can jump anywere.......
I would say that the change of an dealer getting it right is equal as an VB player getting it right.......
Carlitos 8)
Would anyone like to have a true debate on this issue? No hard feelings or mud-slinging; just an honest exchange of ideas.
I have a pretty good mechanical mind--almost an engineer but without the math. I own one patent and could have patented many things. Might still do so. So here is my first item for debate:
If I slid a quarter under the wheel and caused it to tilt 1 degree off dead level, what would be the observable result other than the ball would most likely fall from the same place on the race? Which numbers would you bet? You can't just bet where the ball leaves the race. Which numbers would be affected so that you could profit from them?
Please, no obfuscation or bloviation! Only replies with straightforward answers will be considered.
Or just blow me off and continue thinking what you will.
Samster
Biased wheels really exist. It isn t magic...it is just phisics.
And at the time that Pelagio were playing in biased wheels there were many of them.
Nowdays it is a very hard subject to find one...because the Casino software will spot it and give indication to the stuff to remove or to fix the wheel...
unfortunately NOW that the Casinos know ALL about Advantage-play ...they are 1 step ahead of the APers
So the genuine conclusion is that nowdays either playing Maths or patters or Ap it is the same thing...we are alllllllllllllllllll under the -2.7
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Nov 02, 03:15 AM 2010
Would anyone like to have a true debate on this issue? No hard feelings or mud-slinging; just an honest exchange of ideas.
I have a pretty good mechanical mind--almost an engineer but without the math. I own one patent and could have patented many things. Might still do so. So here is my first item for debate:
If I slid a quarter under the wheel and caused it to tilt 1 degree off dead level, what would be the observable result other than the ball would most likely fall from the same place on the race? Which numbers would you bet? You can't just bet where the ball leaves the race. Which numbers would be affected so that you could profit from them?
Please, no obfuscation or bloviation! Only replies with straightforward answers will be considered.
Or just blow me off and continue thinking what you will.
Samster
Hello dear Sam,
That tilt by the quarter would make the wheel more apt for visual ballistics
BIAS is more of a skew between "donors" and "receivers", where donors decreased hit rate offers receivers a boost. If there is any boost in receiver numbers then only statistical analysis can tell which numbers will be affected. You just can't know
a priory, BIAS is a
post-facto type of play.
Hybrid dealer signature may be enhanced by the tilt too.
Regards.
Vic
Sam,
If you want to know the truth about whether biased wheels exist and how they can be detected, get in touch with Herb. He might let you have a copy of his book:
Caleb Johnson, "How To Visually Detect Biased Roulette Wheels" 183 pages.
Sitting at a casino recording 1000's of spins is very inefficient, and after all that, what you see in the data might just be a normal deviation; unless you have visual proof that the wheel is biased (and this correlates with the data), you're on shaky ground.
Modern wheels can be biased (and many more than you think).
Quote from: Bayes on Nov 02, 07:02 AM 2010
Sam,
If you want to know the truth about whether biased wheels exist and how they can be detected, get in touch with Herb. He might let you have a copy of his book:
Caleb Johnson, "How To Visually Detect Biased Roulette Wheels" 183 pages.
Sitting at a casino recording 1000's of spins is very inefficient, and after all that, what you see in the data might just be a normal deviation; unless you have visual proof that the wheel is biased (and this correlates with the data), you're on shaky ground.
Modern wheels can be biased (and many more than you think).
I do agree.
The most blatantly biased wheel I saw when on a trip. I saw the very clear irregularities with my own eyes and thought "this must be biased". Visible "peak" and "valley" zones on a poorly maintained auto-wheel created an unleveled movement when it spun.
Now the matter is to monitor those detected wheels long enough to confirm if that uneven deflection of light or that imbalance you detected in the spinning when staring at a fixed reference point on the rim does actually overcome the -2.7.
And that is a work for locals. Who knows? Maybe some of those local players I saw are backing the same group of numbers every night ;)
Victor
In the fifth clip Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo roulette system, the fellow was trying to hit either 8 or 31 and kept hitting the 19 in between them. So---we are to believe one of two things: 1. The wheel is biased to the left and right pocket of 19, but not 19 itself, or, 2. The 19 pocket is a hair smaller and the 8 and 31 are a hair larger as a result.
I find either case impossible to believe.
I believe that tilting a wheel so much as to be visibly noticeable would not change the way numbers are hit. You still have a rotating device presenting a possible 37 numbers to the path of the falling ball. I simply don't believe you can predict where that rotor will be and the scatter pattern in time to place the bets. This brings up a thought experiment. More on that later..............
Bayes
What is written in a book may or may not be true.
QUESTIONS:
Are the young and old people the same in this movie?
Are they actors or the real people?
Was the movie made as they were actually playing?
Sam
QuoteI believe that tilting a wheel so much as to be visibly noticeable would not change the way numbers are hit. You still have a rotating device presenting a possible 37 numbers to the path of the falling ball.
In the terms of a single spin, you are absolutely right Sam.
That's why plenty of BIASed wheel are quite profitable for the casino and are never removed.
Martingalers won't know what color is next. The overnight chip scatterer won't notice any remarkable difference in the way numbers are spun for more than the usual numbers fall on any other roulette.. Even the sleeper player will see his numbers hit
more or less according to the expected values.
...But... The BIAS-play % edge comes from the long-term expectation. You may lose in the short-term due to variance, but if your edge is certainly coming from a physical
-donor/+receiver effect, then you are guaranteed to win in the longer term by continuously playing the biased selection.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Nov 02, 07:22 AM 2010
What is written in a book may or may not be true.
Agreed.
I have the book and the story may be embellished a bit, but the mathematical foundation used by Pelayos (Chi square, 95% averages from computer-generated analysis, etc.) is sound.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Nov 02, 07:22 AM 2010
QUESTIONS:
Are the young and old people the same in this movie?
Nope
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Nov 02, 07:22 AM 2010
Are they actors or the real people?
Both. There were paid actors hired for the documentary AND members from the Pelayos family.
You can see the actual Gonzalo GarcÃÂa-Pelayo talking at his channel: link:://:.youtube.com/user/LOSPELAYOS (link:://:.youtube.com/user/LOSPELAYOS)
This is Gonzalo:
Gonzalo Garcia Pelayo (link:://:.youtube.com/watch?v=nNS2KyyMdqE#ws)
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Nov 02, 07:22 AM 2010Was the movie made as they were actually playing?
Sam
No. Those scenes were re-enacted for the documentary.
Regards,
Victor
Ah Victor, you beat me to it, I was about to say the same thing. :thumbsup:
The effects of bias are cumulative (in terms of the number of spins played), and can be dependent on such things as size/material of ball, humidity, speed at which the ball is released etc, so it's by no means a simple matter to detect bias IF you don't know what to look for. As Victor points out, if a wheel is making money and the bias is small (and/or temporary) it's unlikely to be detected (even by a casino's monitoring equipment - statistical analyses of the wheel performed by this equipment is often fairly crude and many biases go unnoticed, they are "washed out" in the data).
No physical device can ever be PERFECTLY balanced, and it doesn't take too much imbalance to put the odds in your favour.
Also Sam, don't be thinking so much in terms of whether a wheel is tilted or not. There are many more forms of bias than merely tilt, and all of them can effect where the ball will end up.
Folks
It's best for me if I just leave this subject alone. Thanks for your input.
Sam
I just watched the entire video about the Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo roulette system family and their biased wheel play.
One eternal truth about Roulette that I've had hammered home to me by this very entertaining documentary is that even a biased wheel can go cold. That your system or your numbers can go violently cold. And by the same token, very hot.
What I love about the information garnered from this forum is the Truth ful direction many of the postings make.
I highly recommend any roulette lover to look this up on You Tube.
My best to you,
Canuck