I was thinking about how to guarantee continuous losses on BV, which - when playing randomly - should break even in the long run.
After pondering it for some time I reckon I've found a solution!
How might you stop yourself winning, resulting in negative edge and escaping break even?
If we were to find a losing BV method then might there be a way to reverse it and turn it into positive edge?
Sure Falkor!
Perfect loser we can convert to perfect winner.
OK, so here's the perfect loser strategy:
1) Keep betting on the sleepers of a number cycle, starting with 35 numbers then 34 then 33...
2) When you win you must parlay the winnings plus 1 unit onto the next sleeper bet, letting it ride so to speak.
3) When the repeat comes you lose all your winnings minus 1 unit, so the cycle ends at least -1
But how to tackle to house edge when you try to stop yourself winning 100K? >:D
Note: negative/positive progression doesn't work, so what is the opposite of parlaying? Hint: outer cycles? :question:
What’s the point from your post ?
What are you trying to say ?
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Dec 23, 10:08 PM 20181) Keep betting on the sleepers of a number cycle, starting with 35 numbers then 34 then 33...
Nimo he's catching on :smile:
Hope it’s ok to ask this question here.
Let’s say you get the perfect losing system. Let’s say you manage to reverse it into a system with a small positive edge for you. Let’s also say it is flat betting on lines :wink:
How would you go about altering this system if you wanted to play at a casino with zero ?
I don’t think uk citizens can play at BV anymore ?
Thanks.
The zero would be of later concern, but even without a zero it seems impossible to gain any kind of edge.
Unfortunately, this system reached the table limits at spin 17, which I believe is about 120 units for inside bets?
(link:s://i.postimg.cc/GmfbzRP4/17.jpg)
2669 - 2280 still leaves some profit
Edit: I might be 1,000 out here, as I was meant to reset to session BR to zero. :-[
After spin 17 we can no longer guarantee a loss?
How about if we played 72 number roulette? Would we then be able to guarantee a loss every cycle?
Won’t work tried it a long time ago nicksmi used to reverse my systems ..
Think of it as an oscillating wave
You can either hop on
Or hop off
Only thing in this thinking is when it’s time to jump on or off the bus
What consistent wave have you encountered? Since all bets are independent there doesn't appear to be a right entry or exit moment.
The only thing I haven't tested is jumping from different universes in the event of a repeat or deadlock. For this I need to construct many streams that are dependent on each other, but I've been too lazy to do it.
Only way to guarantee loss on bv is keep transacting. Even when you win, the math is against you when you withdrawal.
I reckon I've figured out the secret...
Every number cycle beyond, say, 7 spins, has a cycle length 1/order 1/position 1 on a lesser stream:
High-Low
Dozens
Columns
Quads
Lines
Streets
+ other custom streams (may not even be needed).
Many of those streams can be hedged for an immediate repeat before the number cycle repeats - to be tested.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Dec 30, 09:01 PM 2018
I reckon I've figured out
Many of those streams can be hedged for an immediate repeat before the number cycle repeats - to be tested.
My opinion it right path. Only with 1 stream impossible beat random.
I think parachuting is similar.
I'm testing these ideas using a positive progression instead of negative, as it's more easier to play.
With zero included we can only hedge 1 EC and 1 Dozen or Column at a time.
When a Dozen or Column CL1 is not available then we can hedge the Quads instead
When a Dozen, Column and Quad CL1 bet is not available then we can only bet zero + EC.
For this strategy to be consistent, therefore, we are required to have enough of the right streams that are compatible for hedging CL1 bets - there has to be enough CL1 bets available to fill the bet selection to capacity = a brand new concept.
Also, when the Quads are not available then the Lines and Streets are seldom available either, so Non-Random is possibly giving us direction in terms of selecting and parachuting streams!
HAPPY NEW YEAR! O0
(link:s://i.postimg.cc/2yvtyRdQ/hedge.png)
I've had some interesting "random thoughts" today in the form of another brand new concept, which is leading on from the previous new concept about selecting the right streams.
When a number repeats within 4 spins then the dozens are also likely to repeat. Likewise, when a number repeats within 6 spins then the lines are also more likely to repeat. This has been referred to as dependency (on the same spin). So if we were hedging many streams together then when one loses the rest tend to follow suit - so why would anyone want to bet those together? Wouldn't it make more sense if we chose streams that are unrelated and likely to express their most likely outcomes without being dependent on another stream? That way we could hedge several independent streams and most of them should obey MLE.
Dependency allows us to bet on behalf of numbers using, say, dozens or lines. However, once those repeats have happened beyond spins 4-6 and the number cycle still remains open then we can no longer "bet on behalf" so to speak... or can we? I wonder if the number repeat past spins 4-6 would carry some kind of dependency with the 2nd or 3rd repeats of the aforementioned streams - or better still - the "shadow" of those streams. And you know what I am referring to by "shadow".... of course it's the positions streams. That whole idea is one concept I have not ever thought about or analysed till now. We do have the streets - but that can only guarantee dependency up to spin 12. We need some custom streams or new views of old streams that are going to take us into the latter part of a number cycle.
No need for more than one stream, just create the perfect loser stream (only hit few certain positions)
and the W will hit most of the times. The other important positions will not late ....
123412341234 here only hit positions 4 and 8 ( then maybe pos 12 )
Will pos 1 or 2 or 3 hit in the next few spins ?
Use the classic splits or *created * splits /groups for that pattern 1234......
Unfortunately, we cannot predict positions/distances. Spin-by-spin they are independent like their official counterparts with proportionate risk/reward.
I have some stats coming up soon regarding the status of the lesser streams when a number cycle repeats at a given Cycle Length and Order:
(link:s://i.postimg.cc/D0SyL1yk/Capture.png)
So this is pretty much back to basics for me:
When a number cycle close @ length 1 = immediate repeat:
Red/Black repeats 97% of the time - 78% CL1 and 76% order 1
Odd/Even repeats 97% of the time - 80% CL1 and 77% order 1
Low/High repeats 97% of the time - 77% CL1 and 77% order 1
Dozens repeat 97% of the time - 68% CL1; 24% CL2; 7% CL3 and Order: 65%; 26%; 9%
Columns repeat 97% of the time - CL1-3: 70%; 23%; 7% and Order: 65%; 25%; 9%
Quads, Lines and Streets also repeat 97% of the time.
When a number cycle closes @ length 2:
Red/Black repeats 92% of the time. CL1 = 60% and Order 1 = 80%
Odd/Even repeats 92% of the time. CL1 = 61% and Order 1 = 80%
Low/High repeats 92% of the time. CL1 = 62% and Order 1 = 79%
Dozens repeat 91% of the time. CL1-3 = 41%,50%,9% and Order 1-3: 68%, 27%, 5%
Columns repeat 92% of the time. Rest = same stats as dozens.
Quads, Lines and Streets also repeat 92% of the time.
That strikes me as being quite strange, as High-Low and Dozens were said to be related/dependent on Number cycles more than other ECs or Columns.
Let's jump ahead to NCL10:
Red/Black repeats 71% of the time. CL1 = 52% and Order 1 = 75%
Odd/Even repeats 73% of the time. CL1 = 54% and Order 1 = 76%
High/Low repeats 73% of the time.
Dozen repeats 63% of the time. CL1-3 = 36%,43%,2% and Order 1-3 = 61%,31%,8%
Columns repeat 64% of the time. CL1-3 = 35%,44%,3%....
Quads repeat 59% of the time.
Lines repeat 54% of the time.
Streets repeat 54% of the time.
So how is high/low more related to number cycles than Odd/even or red/black.....!? Perhaps they are more related to street cycles?
Falkor what is NCL10?
NCL10 is a numbers repeat on spin 11.
Next I am going to look at a custom stream I made: High Low over 2 spins as Quads. After that I am going to look at repeats in terms of streets. Maybe later can look at positions and modular.
(link:s://i.postimg.cc/NjtRWWTn/Capture.png)
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 02, 09:43 PM 2019
When a number cycle close @ length 1 = immediate repeat:
Red/Black repeats 97% of the time - 78% CL1 and 76% order 1
Falkor, is this what you mean?
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/01/03/sourced6393.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/OMyar)
How many datas did you gather to reach these stats?
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 03, 03:54 PM 2019
Falkor, is this what you mean?
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/01/03/sourced6393.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/OMyar)
How many datas did you gather to reach these stats?
That's right! I am testing 1 million spins.
Wait a minute.
Spin1: nr.X
Spin2: nr.X again.
You mean, on spin3, the same color is hitting again, 97% time? or in how many spins?
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/01/03/sourcecfb8e.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/OMzPx)
What is CL1 and order1?
A million spins already and you got this or are you on your way to a million?
Hi BBB
CL1 is cycle length 1
So spin 1 ex is number 22
Spin 2 is number 22 this is a CL1.
If you had 22,13 22 this is CL2.
Hope that helps.
NCL2:
Quads repeat 92% of the time.
High-Low Quads repeat 59% of the time
NCL10 (most of these stats need correcting above):
Quads repeat 55% of the time.
High-Low Quads repeat 55% of the time
So that's the first sign that custom streams, including modular, can result in a different relationship = dependency.
NCL10 (corrected):
Red/Black repeats 71% of the time. CL1 = 52% and Order 1 = 75%
Odd/Even repeats 70% of the time. CL1 = 52% and Order 1 = 75%
High/Low repeats 70% of the time. CL1 = 52%...
Dozen repeats 60% of the time. CL1-3 = 36%,43%,21% and Order 1-3 = 62%,30%,8%
Columns repeat 60% of the time. CL1-3 = 35%,44%,21%....
Quads repeat 55% of the time.
Lines repeat 51% of the time.
Streets repeat 51% of the time.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 03, 04:02 PM 2019
Wait a minute.
Spin1: nr.X
Spin2: nr.X again.
You mean, on spin3, the same color is hitting again, 97% time? or in how many spins?
NCL1 = 32 32
NCL2 = 32 15 15
etc.
Quote(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/01/03/sourcecfb8e.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/OMzPx)
What is CL1 and order1?
CL1:
RR
24 24
High High
Dozen 2 Dozen 2
etc.
Order 1 (first element repeats):
24 15 32 24
H L H
D2 D1 D3 D2
(link:s://i.postimg.cc/5ynQv8w1/cl.jpg)
QuoteA million spins already and you got this or are you on your way to a million?
The stats were worked out after simulating 1 million spins worth of data.
Unfortunately, we don't have the same stats here, so I can't guarantee there is any dependency with numbers:
(link:s://i.postimg.cc/pdBBkcMM/quads.png)
It would have been nice if I made that stream over 2 spins instead of looking back at last 2 spins.
Next test is against streets - should hopefully show dependency besides the fact they also have a higher chance of repeating, i.e. 97% for NCL1, which is basic dependency. Again, what we are looking for is different results with High-Low vs. Red-Black or Dozens vs. Columns - that would really prove dependency and why it might make sense to form custom modular streams that overlap official streams in a specific manner.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 02, 10:04 PM 2019
When a number cycle closes @ length 2:
Red/Black repeats 92% of the time. CL1 = 60% and Order 1 = 80%
Odd/Even repeats 92% of the time. CL1 = 61% and Order 1 = 80%
Low/High repeats 92% of the time. CL1 = 62% and Order 1 = 79%
Dozens repeat 91% of the time. CL1-3 = 41%,50%,9% and Order 1-3: 68%, 27%, 5%
Columns repeat 92% of the time. Rest = same stats as dozens.
Quads, Lines and Streets also repeat 92% of the time.
That strikes me as being quite strange, as High-Low and Dozens were said to be related/dependent on Number cycles more than other ECs or Columns.
Falkor, just to make sure I understand properly:
when you mention ''repeat'', are you refering to the spin following the closing cycle? Ex: NCL2: 23, 15, 23, rep, or the spin where it closes, or the previous spin?
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 03, 09:40 PM 2019
Falkor, just to make sure I understand properly:
when you mention ''repeat'', are you refering to the spin following the closing cycle? Ex: NCL2: 23, 15, 23, rep, or the spin where it closes, or the previous spin?
When a number has 2 appearances in total then it's a repeat, i.e. above 23 is responsible for the repeat on spin 3 = NCL2.
When the repeat happens then the defining element, i.e. 23, is carried over to the next number cycle (principle A) or you can do a fresh virtual spin (principle B) - doesn't really matter:
23...
Some people seem to think the principle A forms some kind of magical relationship - perhaps akin to fractals - but I haven't noticed any advantage using principle A or B. There is also Principle C:
23, 15, 23 = repeat. Now carry over the 15 and 23:
15, 23...
15, 23, 6...
15, 23, 6, 6 = repeat on Order 3/Position 1.
A lot of terminology to learn! :twisted:
I understand now what you mean by order and cycle length, ok.
The question was: you said: on a NCL2, the ECs repeat 92% of times.
Do you mean they repeat after the cycle is closed, on next spin;
Or do they repeat when the cycle closes, i.e. a black nr closes in 2 spins, previous spin was black?
What are your spin reference to call it a repeat? The spin where the cycle closes and the next spin, or the previous?
More stats:
Let's look at NCL3o3:
Dozens repeat 97% of the time.
CL: 50%, 32%, 19%
Order: 68%,27%,5%
Columns also repeat 97% of the time in the same game as the dozens.
CL: 54%, 30%, 16%
Order: 68%,27%,5%
NCL3o1:
Dozens repeat 70% of the time
CL: 38%, 40%, 22%
Order: 79%, 17%, 3%
Columns repeat 71% of the time in different games to the dozen repeats.
CL: 38%, 39%, 23%
Order: 79%, 17%, 3%
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 03, 10:00 PM 2019
I understand now what you mean by order and cycle length, ok.
The question was: you said: on a NCL2, the ECs repeat 92% of times.
Do you mean they repeat after the cycle is closed, on next spin;
Or do they repeat when the cycle closes, i.e. a black nr closes in 2 spins, previous spin was black?
What are your spin reference to call it a repeat? The spin where the cycle closes and the next spin, or the previous?
The exact spin where the number closes the cycle, i.e. the first to 2 appearances, defines the repeat on that one spin alone; and it's this same spin number where we refer to the neighboring EC streams to see if they also repeated at the same time as the numbers (next test: streets).
So the idea is this: if the number cycle is open at, say, spin 4:
16, 23, 15, 33...
If we want to bet for a number repeat on the next spin (would be NCL4) then we can express this by betting an EC or Dozens instead of the 4 numbers, based on the stats covered in this topic (still more to publish if it turns out to be useful).
Street Repeats Cycle Length 3 (SCL3):
Dozens repeat 84% of the time.
CL: 39,33,28%
O: 68,28,4%
Columns repeat 53% of the time.
CL: 34,45,22%
O: 63,30,7%
Splendid, splendid... that's the result we wanted! Very good progress after all these years of not knowing... I'm happy. :thumbsup:
Looks like edge to me...
EDIT: failed! Back to the drawing board... :(
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 05, 05:44 PM 2019
Looks like edge to me...
EDIT: failed! Back to the drawing board... :(
Do you mean: you found no way of exploiting these stats or you found an error in your file?
Falkor,
I am running a macro right now with Excel.
First thing sorted is what you would call the number cycle. Numbers come out and a win is recorded when a nr repeats. Then restart with the won nr and proceed again.
Then, on a win, I record the dozen in which the repeating nr is, and the dozen on the previous spin.
As opposed to be about 33% same dozen and 66% different dozen, I get 43% of a repeating dozen when a nr repeats.
I get 44,7% order1 (for me it is the newest, not the oldest), 34,5% order2 and 20,8% order3.
I suspect the difference between expected 33% and 43% lies in the amount of nrs per dozen: a more frequently hit dozen gathers more nrs and is more often at Order1.
I've also checked the sequences of SameDoz-DiffDoz when a nr repeats. Turns out that when a nr repeats with a different dozen than previous spin, most of the time it happens only once, 62%.
Below one can see easily the difference in the slopes: when a nr repeats on the same dozen as the previous spin, it tends to do it consecutively, as opposed to when a nr repeats on a different dozen than previous spin.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/01/06/sourcee7b54.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/O1mrB)
That is, let's say you'd play the nrs that appeared so far, but only the ones that were in the previous dozen. If playing all ''number cycles'', as you would put it, it would be a 43-44% win, 56-57% loss. With the most populated dozen hitting more frequently, it is not enough to overcome HE.
If 62% of ''losses'' only appear once then switch back to ''win'', would it make sense to ''shed'' a loss then hope for a hit in a repeating dozen? Maybe go for a run of consecutive hits on same dozen?
Max consecutive DiffDoz is 11, max consecutive SameDoz is 21, average maximums in 1000-spin tests, after 1700 tests, is 4 for the DiffDoz, 7 for SameDoz. So indeed SameDozen tends to run.
That's what I got so far with my beloved Excel Random.
Average of 2.37 nrs in the dozen when it's a different dozen;
Average of 2.81 nrs in the dozen when it's the same dozen.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 05, 11:55 PM 2019
I've also checked the sequences of SameDoz-DiffDoz when a nr repeats. Turns out that when a nr repeats with a different dozen than previous spin, most of the time it happens only once, 62%.
Below one can see easily the difference in the slopes: when a nr repeats on the same dozen as the previous spin, it tends to do it consecutively, as opposed to when a nr repeats on a different dozen than previous spin.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/01/06/sourcee7b54.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/O1mrB)
Falkor, I got it wrong. Consecutive Same and Consecutive Different should be switched. Just a tiny typing mistake...