How does gambler'sfallacy apply to roulette?
Thanks in advance
Briefly, if red has hit seven times in a row, black should hit next.
...that random is predictable
Gambler's fallacy
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (due to its significance in a Monte Carlo casino in 1913)[1] or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future. For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.Such an expectation could be mistakenly referred to as being due. This is an informal fallacy. It is also known colloquially as the law of averages.
The gambler's fallacy implicitly involves an assertion of negative correlation between trials of the random process and therefore involves a denial of the exchangeability of outcomes of the random process.
The reversal is also a fallacy, the inverse gambler's fallacy, in which a gambler may instead decide that tails are more likely out of some mystical preconception that fate has thus far allowed for consistent results of tails; the false conclusion being: Why change if odds favor tails? Again, the fallacy is the belief that the "universe" somehow carries a memory of past results which tend to favor or disfavor future outcomes.
Welcome to the forum, David. :thumbsup:
A good question, because that very fallacy traps so many.
Gambler's fallacy is the main reason behind use of dangerous progressions like martingale and end of bankrolls. It may lead to good wins you sometimes, but so far as scienific approach is concerned, nothing is ever due to happen or not to happen at any point of time. Remember randomness is synonym of unpredictibility and what can happen to you if you feel it to be predictible.
Yes. Well put, albalaha.
The trick is to follow the fallacy then.
if the coin is going to land on it heads face 10 times in say 15 spins
the the fallacy would say that its going to land on the tail face more times
in the next 15 spins/toss.
So here's where u would bet.
There's no time limit in recovery for Roulette.
If u have lost in any progression betting system, then why
not wait until the table is showing u better than evens odds to recover ur position.
Always bothered me Y players continue with BR losses, and continue playing non-stop, instead of waiting for the situation to get better.
Some have got it right,
bit like waiting for the trigger point.
Quote from: chrisbis on Nov 04, 06:21 AM 2010
If you have lost in any progression betting system, then why
not wait until the table is showing you better than evens odds to recover your position.
Chris, could you give an example of when/how that would happen ?
Recently was in a lose position with a EC 3 way betting spread, using simple
Martingale progression, till i was total of
2+2+2, &4+4+4, &8+8+8 down=46units down in total,
So i waited till there had been 9 straight reds, and put my horse, dog, next doors cat
and my middle leg on Black, and came up trumps.
Recovery complete, and hence back to the system.
Classic example, since i thought 3 levels of progression down the ladder
was enough of a risk to the BR, so i waited for an opportunity to arrive,
and snapped it up.
Load the Matrix. :thumbsup:
Just as well the middle leg came up a winner... ;)
Dear Chris,
You are a very active member here and it seems you are enjoying experiments upon different aspects of roulette. If you see the definition of gambler's fallacy again, you will find that the term "trigger" is also a fallacy, since nothing is ever due to happen or not due to happen. In roulette, you have no other option but to predict a number or a set of number and expect it to come before it breaks even or you use different kind of progressions if your bet doesn't hit within its due period. Remember, whatever bet you select can turn sleeper that very moment and whatever remains unbetted can become a streak.
Actually, every gambler should be aware of this reality. Now it is upon your playing technique (system), whether you earn more or lose more and whether you remain unaffected from this fallacy negatively or not.