I’ve been reading up on forex trading. I thought it would be easier to learn trading if I compared it to roulette.
I have noticed that technical analysis traders resemble roulette system players. I have a few questions for anyone who is experienced in forex trading.
First question is how similar is technical analysis to a roulette system?
What would the equivalent be of table limits in trading?
Is there a house edge when trading forex?
In roulette you can never lose more than you bet at any one time. Is the same true for forex, if I open a small account and link it to my bank account, could I lose more money than is in my small forex account?
I would like to transfer my roulette knowledge over to trading. So is there a trading market than resembles roulette better than forex?
Thank you
Interesting approach. I do not have much experience with trading, maybe ignatus can tell you more.
I think the closest thing you would get to roulette is betting horse racing.
You could also try betting soccer final results.
Playing many combination bets in sport betting can produce enormous odds. You can win huge pile of money risking very little.
I used to have a collegue who had precognitive dreams and made a killing that way.
Other option would be try some of the crypto gambling sites. I believe there are ethereum based smart contract online multiplayer games that are tamper proof. Those can be played anonymously with lesser risk of cheating.
Another consideration against trading is taxes.
In our country gambling and sports betting are tax free, while you have to pay after your winnings at the stock market.
The other advantage is that the sport betting is monopolized and controlled by the government.
You can play even at your grocery store and they will never suspend you, despite your winnings.
Thanks for the interesting suggestions Kairo.
My major worry with casinos is that they can ban you at their discretion. I don't know what the FX dealers can do if I were to consistently guess the trades correctly.
You have a good point in regard to taxes but I honestly don't mind paying taxes as long as I can not be banned. My biggest concern is not being able to use my skill to generate a consistent profit. Being banned, because I win too much is the biggest problem.
FX sites takes commissions. I do not think they banning players. Stock market is a huge casino.
You can try betfair. It is a live sports trade.
I would look at the tennis market. The odds fluctuate at each game point, just like playing on MPR EC's.
You should also check provably fair dice BTC providers.
It is not possible to ban the players and those are all live online games with small 1% edge.
You can also have multiple online casino accounts and rotate them, hire someone to play with their Identities.
You can even run a tipster service.
Quote from: Kairomancer on Jan 25, 07:56 AM 2020
You should also check provably fair dice BTC providers.
It is not possible to ban the players and those are all live online games with small 1% edge.
You can also have multiple online casino accounts and rotate them, hire someone to play with their Identities.
You can even run a tipster service.
All amazing suggestions, thanks. It has opened my eyes to different possibilities.
Quote from: precogmiles on Jan 25, 04:18 AM 2020
I thought it would be easier to learn trading if I compared it to roulette. Why?
First question is how similar is technical analysis to a roulette system? Not really similar.
What would the equivalent be of table limits in trading? The opposing bid or ask size
Is there a house edge when trading forex? Commission maybe. If into options, time is the edge against you
In roulette you can never lose more than you bet at any one time. Is the same true for forex, if I open a small account and link it to my bank account, could I lose more money than is in my small forex account? Yes. If you sell products that you don't have (short selling, selling option) or buying on margin
I would like to transfer my roulette knowledge over to trading. So is there a trading market than resembles roulette better than forex? Why would you want it to resemble to roulette? I guess you could use any kind of progression with options. Different options have different leverage, where you can make 1x, 2x 4x or more depending on volatility.
Thank you
Thanks for the response Bigbroben.
The only reason I am comparing the two is because I know how roulette works. Just an easier way to learn a new subject if you compare it to something you already know.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 26, 09:44 AM 2020Yes. If you sell products that you don't have (short selling, selling option) or buying on margin
I have been reading more about forex. Are you refering to the spread here?
No, I was refering to naked shorts.
Lets say you have 1000$ in your account. You sell XYZ shares ( or currencies, whatever) that you do not own. Lets say you sold 100 shares at 5$, thinking it will fall, so you buy them cheaper. So you have now 1500$ in your account. Lo and behold! Great news come out: stock rises to 15$! You're now having a margin call since tou have just enough money to buy them back. So you lost it all, the 1000$.
But I guess I was wrong by saying they'd go after your other assets. I guess of you play safe it wont happen. So no short selling and no margin buts is safe.
As for banning you: no they wont. The more you trade, the more commision they take. Unless you're sloshing billions per day and manipulating the market..
FX takes commission , that's how they get their money. Similar to other live poker based casinos. Their money is not at stake so they don't care about your winnings.
With roulette you play vs. casino and their money is at stake. The more they lose from you the more likely you are not welcomed there.
Ofc your play style is of the main reasons casinos bring that decision. If it's luck and you win 100k+ they won't bother because from their pov you are likely to give them some of that money back. As opposed to skillful play where you might win 6k and they ban you or limit your account and possibly demand other personal types of verification which most of the players refuse to give.
Quote from: precogmiles on Jan 25, 04:18 AM 2020
I’ve been reading up on forex trading. I thought it would be easier to learn trading if I compared it to roulette.
I have noticed that technical analysis traders resemble roulette system players. I have a few questions for anyone who is experienced in forex trading.
First question is how similar is technical analysis to a roulette system?
What would the equivalent be of table limits in trading?
Is there a house edge when trading forex?
In roulette you can never lose more than you bet at any one time. Is the same true for forex, if I open a small account and link it to my bank account, could I lose more money than is in my small forex account?
I would like to transfer my roulette knowledge over to trading. So is there a trading market than resembles roulette better than forex?
Thank you
Yes there's a commission built into the spread. The way to reduce the commission is to target more pips per trade/try (I prefer to think of it as trying than trading) with average exits far away from your entries.
Yes it appears it can be very much like gambling in that people are out giving very bad advice and get away with it because rarely does anybody show statistics on their results and people don't run their own statistics I'd say because must be able to do analysis with software programs that you must buy...or be able to run Excel but not that many can do it. Yah, I am absolutley sick of teachers talking about support and resistance and "structure" as the cool kids are saying now without any numbers to back anything up.
Now supposedly the forex is not purely random because there are human emotions involved that add a bit of predictability. Still hardly anybody posts statistics or modeling results.
It's quite possible that people who are winning are using precog unbeknownst even to themselves.
Using a "grid" system is very much like the +1/-1 progression system in roulette . some use a hedged grid both buying and selling at the same time.
Similar to grid is renko only without the negative progression and always directional . like playing follow the last on even chances.
I've asked Roulette Warrior...the precog guy on youtube if...or why not he apply his skills to forex and he replied something like he likes the immediate feedback of roulette but that it is a skill definitely transferable.
Now it would be easiest to create an equivalent even chance game with approx similar commission structure just by gridding equal distances in price from one distance to another.
If you need or desire high payout similar to hitting an inside number in roulette you can "stitch" together several even chance bets...parlaying all the way up to 32x your initial unit. So you can find 32 different ways an even chance bet will arrive at 32x payout and those are your 32 numbers.
Worth studying is the concept that random entry can be overcome with strategic trail stops that follow along . That would be the first thing to study (for non precog people) with the goal of overcoming commisions and maybe a little more just using random entry. Then if you can find an entry giving a slight better win rate it's like frosting on the cake.
Not talked about much is the concept of trading your own equity curve. Worth looking into.
But yah, if you have a repeater or anti repeater method that works in roulette it should be transferable cause of how you can stitch up even chance scenarios. And there is the possibility that what won't work in a purely random environment might work in forex cause of human emotions.
Would not worry too much about losing more than your account. Brokers will protect themselves if your account goes beyond margin and actually close trades. Stop loss orders also help contain catastrophic moves in price.
I think renko is underated and most resembles even chance but with the possibility that slightly longer trends distinquish forex from purely random environment. Otherwise grid systems will definitely cash in on sideways markets.
One more thing. So yah you can make even chance bets by placing a stop equal distance from a target. Similar , you can place a target twice the distance from initial stop to replicated a 2:1 payout like dozens or columns. Likewise a 3:1 "risk reward ratio" will mimic yet another roulette bet. On up to 32x payout or maybe there is even a way to mimic a 36x payout.
But the ability to trail stop is probably an improvement over roulette and should at least help overcome commissions.
If mean reversion from an extended standard deviation works in roulette then it should work in forex.
Quote from: precogmiles on Jan 25, 06:44 AM 2020
Thanks for the interesting suggestions Kairo.
My major worry with casinos is that they can ban you at their discretion. I don't know what the FX dealers can do if I were to consistently guess the trades correctly.
You have a good point in regard to taxes but I honestly don't mind paying taxes as long as I can not be banned. My biggest concern is not being able to use my skill to generate a consistent profit. Being banned, because I win too much is the biggest problem.
Yes this is a concern but you should be able to avoid it with the help of sites like Forex Peace Army who are kind of watch dogs on that sort of thing.
The problem seems to be how one kind (there are a couple of kinds) of brokers is heavily involved in the other side of your trade. I don't think all brokers are set up this way though. Even if they are all they have to do is reverse and coattail your positions if indeed your accounts equity curve is marching steadily higher...which they could easily see. I think it is more situations where the broker doesn't have time to adjust their position from expecting retail traders to lose to following the ones that win. There are retail traders who can make 10x and 20x in short order and that can surprise and hurt anyone taking other side of trade.
There are outright scam brokers but by and large I think there are enough good ones to sustain your intentions and yah, using multiple brokers might help.
Bit it seems to me that you could communicate with them (interview them ) before you even start and ask them if they have a problem with you consistently winning and that you WILL win. They should be thankful for the opportunity to coaittail (or even front run) your moves...if indeed they ate the type of broker that usually counters customers.
There are several forums on forex where just this issue is discussed among everything else. Elite Trader comes to mind. Maybe Kreskin. Baby Pips.
Good wisdom by @Still
Highly appreciate all your sharing. Thanks a lot.
Thanks bigbroben, thenameishut and still. I appreciate the wealth of information provided.
Quote from: Still on Jan 28, 06:51 AM 2020
Yes there's a commission built into the spread. The way to reduce the commission is to target more pips per trade/try (I prefer to think of it as trying than trading) with average exits far away from your entries.
Yes it appears it can be very much like gambling in that people are out giving very bad advice and get away with it because rarely does anybody show statistics on their results and people don't run their own statistics I'd say because must be able to do analysis with software programs that you must buy...or be able to run Excel but not that many can do it. Yah, I am absolutley sick of teachers talking about support and resistance and "structure" as the cool kids are saying now without any numbers to back anything up.
Now supposedly the forex is not purely random because there are human emotions involved that add a bit of predictability. Still hardly anybody posts statistics or modeling results.
It's quite possible that people who are winning are using precog unbeknownst even to themselves.
Using a "grid" system is very much like the +1/-1 progression system in roulette . some use a hedged grid both buying and selling at the same time.
Similar to grid is renko only without the negative progression and always directional . like playing follow the last on even chances.
I've asked Roulette Warrior...the precog guy on youtube if...or why not he apply his skills to forex and he replied something like he likes the immediate feedback of roulette but that it is a skill definitely transferable.
Now it would be easiest to create an equivalent even chance game with approx similar commission structure just by gridding equal distances in price from one distance to another.
If you need or desire high payout similar to hitting an inside number in roulette you can "stitch" together several even chance bets...parlaying all the way up to 32x your initial unit. So you can find 32 different ways an even chance bet will arrive at 32x payout and those are your 32 numbers.
Worth studying is the concept that random entry can be overcome with strategic trail stops that follow along . That would be the first thing to study (for non precog people) with the goal of overcoming commisions and maybe a little more just using random entry. Then if you can find an entry giving a slight better win rate it's like frosting on the cake.
Not talked about much is the concept of trading your own equity curve. Worth looking into.
But yah, if you have a repeater or anti repeater method that works in roulette it should be transferable cause of how you can stitch up even chance scenarios. And there is the possibility that what won't work in a purely random environment might work in forex cause of human emotions.
Would not worry too much about losing more than your account. Brokers will protect themselves if your account goes beyond margin and actually close trades. Stop loss orders also help contain catastrophic moves in price.
I think renko is underated and most resembles even chance but with the possibility that slightly longer trends distinquish forex from purely random environment. Otherwise grid systems will definitely cash in on sideways markets.
So much information to take in. Did you attend a course? Can you recommend any good course? Or do you think it is better to just practice using a demo account?
Quote from: precogmiles on Jan 29, 01:50 AM 2020
So much information to take in. Did you attend a course? Can you recommend any good course? Or do you think it is better to just practice using a demo account?
In about 1998 i ordered two "courses" through mail order, $200 each, specializing in futures. Basically two $200 books, and have not spent anything but my time since then. By 2008 i was trading index futures with a robot i had written with Tradestation (and also using their brokerage). It was risking about $250 per attempt and in one two day period doubled an almost $3000 account. I didn't think it could continue so i activated another robot i wrote that was 'due' to produce. Well it didn't and the first one did but by then i had to liquidate the account to pay winter bills. Long story short i think self-sabotage is the biggest concern for any potential trader. That's one of three maybe four incidents where i could see in hindsight how self-sabotage can creep in despite learning, contemplation and even back-testing (in the latter case).
What i bought then you can get free now...and much more online (YouTube, forums) as it is now the golden age for retail traders, especially now that Forex has grown popular. I had to have $5000 just to open an account at Tradestation and $200-250 per attempt is about what you had to risk to operate. Forex brokers are opening accounts with sub $500, even $100, with granularity now going way down given lots, versus mini-lots versus micro-lots. So i much more mimics small time gambling in that you can risk as little as $1 or .50 cents (for example risking 1% of a $100 account) while modeling a much larger account that deals with full lots. I rented Tradestation for about $100 a month. Today there is MetaTrader 4 and 5, free, (and other platforms offering free versions) that you can use to write robots and backtest ideas just as i did with Tradestation. Back then i rented an apartment with strong internet connection to run my robot ideas. Today you can run robots from VPS services in the cloud for cheap.
For familiarizing yourself with the environment of Forex, i might recommend a "course" i've heard about over on Baby Pips that's free. Demo accounts are good for learning actual manual execution of that's what you'll be doing. I'm not convinced forward walking a trading plan on a demo account offers the best confirmation of a winning idea as it takes a lot of data points to confirm statistics and what is ten or even 100 trades going to prove? But if your plan says you should be 'x' ahead given any 12 trades, then yes, try the demo for 12 or 24 trades to see. But depending, this can take a lot of time. Best to use software or Excel to back test ideas over many data points as quickly as possible. Then, it might be useful to run a demo account in tandem with live account to see if you are getting similar/same kinds of 'fills' and results. Running micro-lots is similar to a demo account anyway as you can risk so little to get some proof of concept.
You'd be doing precog so a lot of this would not apply. I think you could choose a time frame and consult your Self whether price will be higher, or lower, in the next, say, hour. Then hopefully your predictions will be enough to overcome commissions. Maybe avoid big news days where price can move suddenly and far...or maybe target big news days.
I've been more interested in Forex since last summer when i decided it was a path i had to go, so i've overdosed on too much YouTube peeps, trying so sift through the sand to get to the flakes of gold out there in the occasional advice. I'm currently putting together a program in Excel to test some ideas. I could probably do something similar in MetaTrader4 but decided to leverage Excel and VBA to possibly do things that MetaTrader cannot do...more massive calculations for example. i have to break away from it for awhile though before it is ready for the basic test i had in mind.
It's the golden age but it's still a challenge because it's mainly a random environment with maybe, just maybe, some predictability because of the human element. YouTube peeps will offer advice on, say, moving averages. But do they give any statistics? No! One has to do all this research oneself, imo.
But you can also "follow" traders with apparently established methods that can be viewed on sites like MyFxbook or FXBlue or FX Junction. You can look at charts of their performance and look at statistics and even the trades that they made and decide if they are reliable enough to follow. At places like these you can view actual trades that are going through live accounts, or demo accounts, usually facilitated by software like MetaTrader and the many brokerages who use it. You can also establish yourself at places like these and be 'followed' and you can even set a monthly price for 'signals' that people can sign up for. You can also establish a track record there for purposes of becoming a 'prop trader' for a 'firm' that takes a percentage of multiple traders that work with it's own capital. This is a way of being capitalized quite nicely sooner than later. Maybe not even that. One first will distribute capital to work with if you can pass some basic test that might not last more than three weeks.
Or, you can buy robots off of sites like MetaQuotes (associated with MetaTrader) where there is a robot market there, as well other services besides signals providers.
But even amongst smart people, there's plenty disagreement with only occasional and i guess that's why we have a market. Smart people say you can't make 20% per month, and smart people say you can. There's one YouTube teacher who i found out is risking only enough to make like 1% per month on his account. And he's out teaching (not sure where some these guys find time to make YouTube vids instead of just trading). But i can understand, trading does not need to take all one's time, and even with an edge, the 'income' can be unreliable, hence people offer courses, classes, private forums, and various services and products for sale on the side.
But there are phenoms out there. Over at FX Junction i've seen people make high marks on the weekly or daily leader board and you can go in and drill down on the details of their trades (even look at them within Excel) and try to re-engineer what they may have done (usually their own description of what they're doing is sketchy and brief). But i've seen people multiply a small account over and over, at will, so there there is reason to believe it's possible to do 20% a month or more.
What i could to maybe is point out a handful of YouTube peeps that might be worth listening to, but who knows. Perhaps finding one's own way is best.
Quote from: Still on Jan 29, 05:39 PM 2020
In about 1998 i ordered two "courses" through mail order, $200 each, specializing in futures. Basically two $200 books, and have not spent anything but my time since then. By 2008 i was trading index futures with a robot i had written with Tradestation (and also using their brokerage). It was risking about $250 per attempt and in one two day period doubled an almost $3000 account. I didn't think it could continue so i activated another robot i wrote that was 'due' to produce. Well it didn't and the first one did but by then i had to liquidate the account to pay winter bills. Long story short i think self-sabotage is the biggest concern for any potential trader. That's one of three maybe four incidents where i could see in hindsight how self-sabotage can creep in despite learning, contemplation and even back-testing (in the latter case).
What i bought then you can get free now...and much more online (YouTube, forums) as it is now the golden age for retail traders, especially now that Forex has grown popular. I had to have $5000 just to open an account at Tradestation and $200-250 per attempt is about what you had to risk to operate. Forex brokers are opening accounts with sub $500, even $100, with granularity now going way down given lots, versus mini-lots versus micro-lots. So i much more mimics small time gambling in that you can risk as little as $1 or .50 cents (for example risking 1% of a $100 account) while modeling a much larger account that deals with full lots. I rented Tradestation for about $100 a month. Today there is MetaTrader 4 and 5, free, (and other platforms offering free versions) that you can use to write robots and backtest ideas just as i did with Tradestation. Back then i rented an apartment with strong internet connection to run my robot ideas. Today you can run robots from VPS services in the cloud for cheap.
For familiarizing yourself with the environment of Forex, i might recommend a "course" i've heard about over on Baby Pips that's free. Demo accounts are good for learning actual manual execution of that's what you'll be doing. I'm not convinced forward walking a trading plan on a demo account offers the best confirmation of a winning idea as it takes a lot of data points to confirm statistics and what is ten or even 100 trades going to prove? But if your plan says you should be 'x' ahead given any 12 trades, then yes, try the demo for 12 or 24 trades to see. But depending, this can take a lot of time. Best to use software or Excel to back test ideas over many data points as quickly as possible. Then, it might be useful to run a demo account in tandem with live account to see if you are getting similar/same kinds of 'fills' and results. Running micro-lots is similar to a demo account anyway as you can risk so little to get some proof of concept.
You'd be doing precog so a lot of this would not apply. I think you could choose a time frame and consult your Self whether price will be higher, or lower, in the next, say, hour. Then hopefully your predictions will be enough to overcome commissions. Maybe avoid big news days where price can move suddenly and far...or maybe target big news days.
I've been more interested in Forex since last summer when i decided it was a path i had to go, so i've overdosed on too much YouTube peeps, trying so sift through the sand to get to the flakes of gold out there in the occasional advice. I'm currently putting together a program in Excel to test some ideas. I could probably do something similar in MetaTrader4 but decided to leverage Excel and VBA to possibly do things that MetaTrader cannot do...more massive calculations for example. i have to break away from it for awhile though before it is ready for the basic test i had in mind.
It's the golden age but it's still a challenge because it's mainly a random environment with maybe, just maybe, some predictability because of the human element. YouTube peeps will offer advice on, say, moving averages. But do they give any statistics? No! One has to do all this research oneself, imo.
But you can also "follow" traders with apparently established methods that can be viewed on sites like MyFxbook or FXBlue or FX Junction. You can look at charts of their performance and look at statistics and even the trades that they made and decide if they are reliable enough to follow. At places like these you can view actual trades that are going through live accounts, or demo accounts, usually facilitated by software like MetaTrader and the many brokerages who use it. You can also establish yourself at places like these and be 'followed' and you can even set a monthly price for 'signals' that people can sign up for. You can also establish a track record there for purposes of becoming a 'prop trader' for a 'firm' that takes a percentage of multiple traders that work with it's own capital. This is a way of being capitalized quite nicely sooner than later. Maybe not even that. One first will distribute capital to work with if you can pass some basic test that might not last more than three weeks.
Or, you can buy robots off of sites like MetaQuotes (associated with MetaTrader) where there is a robot market there, as well other services besides signals providers.
But even amongst smart people, there's plenty disagreement with only occasional and i guess that's why we have a market. Smart people say you can't make 20% per month, and smart people say you can. There's one YouTube teacher who i found out is risking only enough to make like 1% per month on his account. And he's out teaching (not sure where some these guys find time to make YouTube vids instead of just trading). But i can understand, trading does not need to take all one's time, and even with an edge, the 'income' can be unreliable, hence people offer courses, classes, private forums, and various services and products for sale on the side.
But there are phenoms out there. Over at FX Junction i've seen people make high marks on the weekly or daily leader board and you can go in and drill down on the details of their trades (even look at them within Excel) and try to re-engineer what they may have done (usually their own description of what they're doing is sketchy and brief). But i've seen people multiply a small account over and over, at will, so there there is reason to believe it's possible to do 20% a month or more.
What i could to maybe is point out a handful of YouTube peeps that might be worth listening to, but who knows. Perhaps finding one's own way is best.
Amazing post, thanks for the detailed answer. That's a very interesting historical summary of the forex landscape. I've been looking on youtube for infromation but there are so many forex teachers I am getting lost in all the information. Can you recommend a few youtube channels please?
How realistic is 20% a month? What sort of odds would be comparable in roulette?
Quote from: precogmiles on Jan 29, 06:10 PM 2020
Amazing post, thanks for the detailed answer. That's a very interesting historical summary of the forex landscape. I've been looking on youtube for infromation but there are so many forex teachers I am getting lost in all the information. Can you recommend a few youtube channels please?
How realistic is 20% a month? What sort of odds would be comparable in roulette?
Hello precog and other fellow members,
I have been involved into trading and roulette since 2008.
I have coded many roulette systems but they all fail!
From my trading experience, only options (with Nadex for instance) are a viable profit-making scheme over the long run.
I am setting up now a Youtube channel and will post some videos of my Nadex trading.
Here is the link to the channel : link:s://:.youtube.com/channel/UCBQsRDsE8EFfsp_VuSJK0-A/
First video I'll post by the next hours will be to show you how to turn a 70k $ account into a 110k $ in just an hour.
I can offer a one to one mentorship through Skype.
Just PM me if you are interested.
Quote from: boatran8 on Jan 29, 09:45 PM 2020
Hello precog and other fellow members,
I have been involved into trading and roulette since 2008.
I have coded many roulette systems but they all fail!
From my trading experience, only options (with Nadex for instance) are a viable profit-making scheme over the long run.
I am setting up now a Youtube channel and will post some videos of my Nadex trading.
Here is the link to the channel : link:s://:.youtube.com/channel/UCBQsRDsE8EFfsp_VuSJK0-A/
First video I'll post by the next hours will be to show you how to turn a 70k $ account into a 110k $ in just an hour.
I can offer a one to one mentorship through Skype.
Just PM me if you are interested.
Waiting for your first video
Quote from: Clf7 on Jan 30, 01:26 AM 2020
Waiting for your first video
Account still growing. After 4 hours of trading, it is +145,000$. Started from 30,000$ (paper money).
Sorry for the delay, the re-upload of the video will be available by the next 15 minutes, the first upload had failed...