We know that the average outcome of chops is:
50% : Chops of one color
25% : Streak of two same colors
25% : Streak of three or more same colors
We can take advantage of this :
We bet on the change of color only after any previus change of color appears. If a chop of one color appears we win. If not, we bet again. If color changes we win and continue bettiing fornthe next change of color. If not we stop betting untill another change of color appears and bet again. So we avoid any kind of long streaksnof same color. Of course we lose the win that we might had after the end of the streak and the change of color but it doesn't matter.
With this betting we have 1 Win in case of single chops , in case of streak of two colors we have 1 lose and 1 win and in case of a streak of 3+ same colors 2 loses.
Let's put them together based on statistics that I mentioned at the top of the post:
For example, in 200 outcomes we have:
100 one color chop = 100 wins
50 streaks of two same color = 50 loses and 50 wins
50 streaks of 3+ same color = 50X2= 100 loses.
Total:
150 wins
150 loses.
With Labouchere it can easily be played, as Labouchere for 150 loses needs 76 wins to be posiitive. But we have 150 wins!
So far I haven't faced maximum betting more than 24 units starting with 1 unit and I keep testing.
Ignatus I'd appreciate if you could test it on RX.
Thanks
Quote from: huskerdu on May 10, 01:03 PM 2020With Labouchere it can easily be played, as Labouchere for 150 loses needs 76 wins to be posiitive. But we have 150 wins!
It still faces the same sequences of death that all progressions face. Just because you have a nice fiction of mathematical expectations, magical thinking, doesn't mean that randomness will not gang up on the progressions. Those percentages will still sequence badly right when you don't want them to. It's inevitable.
"winrate" about 60%...well.lower wingoals perhaps another progression idk
anyways.
Here you go;
system "EC Singles"
// © ignatus 2020 ©
method "main"
begin
while starting a new session
begin
put 0 to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
Set List [5,10,15,25,35,50,60,70,80,90,100,110,120,130,140,150,175,200,225,250,275,300,350,400,450,500]
to Record "progression" Data
end
Copy List [Black] to Record "B" Layout
Copy List [Red] to Record "R" Layout
while on each spin
begin
if total bankroll >= 2000 each time
begin
stop session
end
if total bankroll <= -2000 each time
begin
stop session
end
IF any outside bet lost each
begin
add 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
end
if any outside bet won each
begin
subtract 1 from Record "progression" Data Index
if Record "progression" Data Index <= 0 each
begin
put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
end
{ clear Record "R" layout
clear Record "B" layout
clear Record "H" layout
clear Record "L" layout
}
// put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
if Bankroll >= Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
begin
clear Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
put 100% Bankroll to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
end
end
IF Red has hit 1 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List
end
IF Black has hit 1 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List
end
{
IF Red has hit 2 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List
end
IF Black has hit 2 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List
end
}
If Record "progression" Data Index >
Record "progression" Data Count
Begin
clear Record "R" layout
clear Record "B" layout
Put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
End
end
END
labouchere is a cancellation money management
johnson progression is cancellation money management but much better than labouchere
about even chances you have many choices about money management
like full trio play oscar grind and many others
so most important is bet selection
if my friend your bet selection is nice then i can post a money management except flat bet
Quote from: ignatus on May 10, 01:41 PM 2020"winrate" about 60%...well.lower wingoals perhaps another progression idk
Ignatus with all respect
You have made a mistake in the code:
{ IF Red has hit 2 time each begin Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List end IF Black has hit 2 time each begin Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List end }
You have forgot to to put out the { and } before and after this code snipet.
And also please change : when Red has hit 2 times we bet on Black (not on Red as you wrote) and when Black has hit 2 times we bet on Red (not on black as you wrote)!
Run with your progresion and also run with Fibonacci 1 â€" 2 â€" 3 â€" 5 â€" 8 â€" 13 â€" 21 â€" 34 â€" 55 â€" 89 â€" 144 â€" 233 â€" 377
Thanks a lot!
ok the chart looks better now, with low wingoals perhaps and Max 200 spins, etc good 8)
system "EC Singles"
// © ignatus 2019 ©
method "main"
begin
while starting a new session
begin
put 0 to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
Set List [1,2,3,5,13,21,32,55,89,133,233,377]
to Record "progression" Data
end
Copy List [Black] to Record "B" Layout
Copy List [Red] to Record "R" Layout
while on each spin
begin
if total bankroll >= 2000 each time
begin
stop session
end
if total bankroll <= -2000 each time
begin
stop session
end
IF any outside bet lost each
begin
add 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
end
if any outside bet won each
begin
subtract 1 from Record "progression" Data Index
if Record "progression" Data Index <= 0 each
begin
put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
end
{ clear Record "R" layout
clear Record "B" layout
clear Record "H" layout
clear Record "L" layout
}
// put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
if Bankroll >= Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
begin
clear Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
put 100% Bankroll to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
end
end
IF Red has hit 1 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List
end
IF Black has hit 1 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List
end
IF Red has hit 2 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List
end
IF Black has hit 2 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List
end
If Record "progression" Data Index >
Record "progression" Data Count
Begin
clear Record "R" layout
clear Record "B" layout
Put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
End
end
END
Thanks Ignatius!!!
The optimal bet on a 0.5 probability scenario is 25% of the bankroll, a/p Kelly's formulae.
link:s://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion (link:s://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion)
You can see some results in action here:
Assuming you have 100 USD as the initial BR, given 10 bets with an equal chance(5w and 5l) you would end up with a
maximum final BR of 180 USD.
a couple of handy links..kelly calculator..and fractions to decimals ...would be interesting if anyone can join the two to work in sync...for quick reference...
link:s://:.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php
link:s://researchmaniacs.com/Math/Fractions/What-Is-27/37-As-A-Decimal.html
Quote from: CarpeDiem on May 11, 12:33 PM 2020
The optimal bet on a 0.5 probability scenario is 25% of the bankroll, a/p Kelly's formulae.
link:s://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion (link:s://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion)
You can see some results in action here:
Assuming you have 100 USD as the initial BR, given 10 bets with an equal chance(5w and 5l) you would end up with a maximum final BR of 180 USD.
Hi, "seize the day". Yes, the Kelly formula is X = pb-q/2 where p is the probability of Winning and q is the TRUE probability of Losing and b is the given odds. So if you have $100 on a 2 to 1 game you get x = (.5)(2)-(.5) all over 2, which gives you .5/2 = 1/4. So your first Bet is 25 and every bet 1/4 of the bankroll. BUT on a $5 minimum table after 6 consecutive Losses you would have to bet more than 1/4. Most bets and systems playing roulette will always have 8-20 consecutive Losses. There are many more progressive systems that seem better at Roulette than the Kelly. But thank you for your post. You seem like a nice guy and very intelligent. It took a long time for me to be a nice guy.
Using Kelly betting is pointless unless you have an edge, so I'm not sure why it's even being mentioned in this thread.
Quote from: Joe on May 12, 01:44 AM 2020
Using Kelly betting is pointless unless you have an edge, so I'm not sure why it's even being mentioned in this thread.
Correct. People should learn the basic math else the same mistakes are repeated again and again(redundant).
Probability and statistics don't work.
Recent CD probability thread don't work.
It's all a Guess. Even an educated Guess is still a Guess. It's either a 1/37 Guess or a 1/38 Guess. And guess what?, It's a Guess. It's all a Guess.
If you want more than a guess with random accuracy, correlate variables to spin outcomes. Then determine what variables matter, and how they correlate.
Quote from: Steve on May 12, 09:56 PM 2020
If you want more than a guess with random accuracy, correlate variables to spin outcomes. Then determine what variables matter, and how they correlate.
Thank you, Steve. My variable and Spin outcome are just guided by the 1 previous Spin. My Bet Selection is Winning 80% and I'm being protected by my Targets and Stops. You can forget my quantum remarks, it was only to try to cause some humor in this Forum in these hard times.