Cut Point Methodology
Note.
This is my favorite even do I donÃ,´t play roulette system and have the opinion that every event is independent and has 37 degree of freedom.
I will post the best work regarding even money bets and there is no public or any roulette system for money that beats this way of play.
Any one is free to prove the opposite.
You will get clear and simple rules with software to verify everything that I say with your own testing and are free to compare it to any existing way of play using even money distribution.
Any one who claim the opposite with out clear and simple rules with -how to- is a liar as they can not provide you with what is facts and fiction.
Enjoy.
Basics.
I will make this simple and start out with talking about three different states or waves of the distribution and as you follow the topic things will become clear when we go deeper into different events and formations as overrepresented and underrepresented events or formations.
First this is how a series looks like:
RR
And it can come in any length as noting is due to happen:
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Now below you have series or series that chop with different length:
RRRBBBRRBBBBBBRRRBBBBB
To make it more clear let me separate them for you:
RRR BB RR BBBB RRR BBBBB
Now you know what a single series is - at least two of the same outcome that follow each other.
Now we categorize this event and formation when series chop and follow each other for formation 1 or wave 1 or state 1.
Basics
State 2 or formation of events, wave is the opposite to the state 1 which I mention above.
Series of singles which means at least two singles and above with any length as noting is due to happen.
RBRBRBRBRBRB
The third state or wave 3 or formation of events is when you only get one series of series and one isolated single and it looks like this:
RRR B RRRR B RR B RRR
Note.
One series no matter length is one event.
One single is one event.
This is how we can divide the distribution into different state when series contra singles or singles contra series becomes the same probability as we talk about red or black which is 1/2 and they can some in any combination we can imagine as there is no secret bet selection which perform better then any other and same goes for betting behavior depending on what we want to capture.
Basics
Now to make things clear of what i mention above so is one single one event which means that if we have five singles then we have five events.
If we have five series to chop after each other no matter what length they have we have five events.
As Red is one event as Black is one event.
Now we are going to add math to this so we can measuring the different states.
We are going to measuring which state is overrepresented and which state is underrepresented.
We are going to use a bench mark and aim for state that reach 3 STD or above.
The values are 1 for series no matter length and 1 for one single event.
So now we can measuring series contra singles where series is overrepresented and singles are underrepresented.
Also the other way around where we have singles contra series where singles is overrepresented and series are underrepresented.
When this happen you will get a long string of events which we can call a window or a state which can happen or appear at any time during the distribution.
As we deal with independent trails so does the law of nature dictate that we can start to measuring from any point during the distribution and try to find a window or frame where a state appears that one event is overrepresented and hit a 3 STD.
To make simple and clear view of how a state looks like and how it is overrepresented and wich is underrepresented I will illustrate this with the perfect state.
Rule 1.
The perfect state/window/frame is only valid if the underrepresented event only appers as single isolateded event with out being a serie of events among the overrepresented events.
Illustration 14 series and 2 singels.
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Above is a window with a state of series being overrepresented and singels being underrepresented.
When we measruing this we get 3 STD.
Illustration 14 singles and 2 series.
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Rule 2.
Every window/frame/state has to appear with at least 16 events to be valid and at most 50 events and less is better.
Rule 3.
Every window/frame/state has to appear within the first 100 trails before play.
The playing model has to have a future of 200 trails.
Rule 4.
The moving window/frame/state.
If you follow the distribution and get for example series being overrepresented as above - but you also receive a small series of singles to appear then you don't have the perfect state as you only allow the underrepresented event being present as singles event isolated with out being a series of underrepresented events.
Then you continue you to follow the window/state/frame and see how the new events start to appear and count backwards from the last present event to get the perfect state.
If you donÃ,´t receive the perfect state you don't have a valid window/frame/state.
Next post is how you calculate and a chart over the math to give you a overview how to measuring the different states.
Here is an simple chart that I did a long time ago with some values that you can use as reference.
(link:://img229.imageshack.us/img229/1018/ecartmb6.png)
The chart show the STD.
First you have to get the Absolute value when you calculate.
So lets assume you have an sequence with 14 series alternating with 2 singles present.
Then you take 14 - 2 = 12
Now we want to get the statistical value so we continue with...
14 + 2 = 16
Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4
And finally we divide the absolute value whit the sqr
12 sqr 4 = 3,00
The Statistical Value 3,00
The simulation software for series contra singles and singles contra series do you use as follows.
Now this is just so you at a first stage are going to make the observations and find does windows that qualify to be the perfect state/frame.
Random org is where you get your random bits / outcomes which is 100% true random events based upon noise and you can download 10x10 000 trails examples each day.
Just past and copy does numbers into a text file and name it 20100712 TRNG to keep good track of your library.
The simulation software use and allow underrepresented formations of two events which also valid - but it is with what i will explain and go deeper into later at this thread.
So when you run the simulation software you just pin-point out does windows that qualified.
The simulation software has a button where you can open your random files which you should save in a separate folder.
When you have load one file with 10 000 trails you just click on the button wish say next.
Then the simulation software will find the window that reach a 3 STD for you and you can scroll down and up to view the distribution.
Later when i will show you how to flat betting and how to play using various of different methods and you will just use the spin button and see for your self how the future unfold it self.
See below attach file - the simulation software.
Basics Advance - The Ultimate Perfect State
I want this to become clear as water when we talk about waves and different states of the distribution.
Above you learn the simple way of three basic states and we are going to deal with them on a deeper level.
First we can mention regular common series when we talk about Red and Black.
A series of two is for example RR or BB and a series of three would be RRR or BBB.
The same distribution applies when we deal with events - as you know one series no matter length is one event when we talk about waves and different states of the distribution.
So if we would talk about series of series of events then two series after each other would be the same as getting RR or BB which would be for example RRRBBB two events.
This means that we get a distribution of single events of series and series of series in the same manner.
B = B
BB = RRRBB
BBB = RRRBBBRRRR
BBBB = RRRRBBRRBBBBB
The Perfect State.
As I mention above there is three formations of waves or different states that the distribution can unfold where we will have one underrepresented formation and one overrepresented formation.
I will illustrate this with example of singles contra series - the point is that I want to make is that the underrepresented formation of series among singles can appear in two ways among the overrepresented singles.
Look at the following.
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Above you can see that you have the series that appear among the singles also being singles.
That means that the sequence of the state of the distribution is not clustering to any formation - its clean being one pure state and then just appear as a state of singles of both the underrepresented figure of series and the overrepresented figure of singles.
To make this more clear we can make the same state but having one of the other two states or waves present with in the state of overrepresented singles.
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As you can see we have the state of RRR B RRR.
Still valid following the rules for the perfect state that dictates no formation of two series in a row as the series is still singles but connect to become the third wave.
The Ultimate Perfect State.
Is when you find or only base your playing model on sequence of states where both the underrepresented and overrepresented formations are singles events.
Reverse so does the same apply to series contra singles.
Clarification.
When you have a window with a state that is pure just being present as one state with out the other two being present among the sequence state of 3 STD then every time one of the two missing states have a show you have a opportunity to develop - The Perfect March - to capture the future from The Ultimate Perfect State.
I will deal with this later as we move forward.
Now you know what The Cut Point Methodology is about.
There is a sloppy way and a perfect way to increase the hit ratio and success to capture the future that unfold it self.
Illustration.
This is just to show you real examples of The Ultimate Perfect State.
First out is Singles contra Series.
The file is a random pick from random org - 100% pure random.
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B <<< Window starts here and to the end a total of 16 events.
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R <<< Here you have a complete Ultimate Perfect State - 3 STD
Illustration.
This is just to show you real examples of The Ultimate Perfect State.
First out is Singles contra Series.
The file is a random pick from random org - 100% pure random.
B <<< Window starts here and to the end 16 events.
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B <<< The Utlimate Perfect state with 3 STD
Illustration for series contra singels.
Here we don't allow two singels among the overrepresented series as the rule apply above and to make it a clear state two singel isolated events are not allow to follow each other.
It would look like this BBB R BBBB R BBBB and this will become clear for obvious reasons when we start to talk about The Perfect March.
Random pick of a Ultimate Perfect State with above a 3 STD.
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O <<< Window starts here and end with more then 16 events.
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O <<< The Ultimate Perfect State above 3 STD and 16 events.
Next we will make observations how the other states show and appear after The Ultimate Perfect State.
We will observe short, medium and large draw-downs of the other two states which will unfold them self in the future trails.
After that we are ready to talk about indications and tendency towards some-thing to capture.
Basics Advance.
Now you know how we can observe and identify a strong imbalance where one event is overrepresented and the other event underrepresented.
We can also measuring the waves using math and categorize the ultimate state of imbalance.
Now I will illustrate this and show you how you can follow the distribution and understand how it unfold and what is happening after a state at 3 STD.
Note.
Any where within the first 100 trails you can observe and track for a ultimate state at 3.00 and then the next 200 is your observation territory for opportunities depending on how the distribution unfold it self.
I mention this as a 3.0 STD can go back to back and hit 6.0 STD as noting is due to happen and would make a delay for any betting opportunity when we observe the STD to grow.
A pick from random org singles contra series.
Compare the black wave with the red wave.
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B <<< Above 3 STD Ultimate State.
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Above is a clear example how series and singel events start to hovering/alternating as a new state and show us how the STD stop to grow stronger and get small draw downs with the series that chop as a direct opposite state - does two new states that you can see after the ultimate state of imbalance is true correction - note this is a simple example and they can come in various ways.
Does indications and tendency's is what we aim to capture.
Basics Advance.
Flat betting / Masse Ègale.
Flat betting following simple rules and the principal is logic.
The minimum is to gain at least +1 unit and the amount of won units has to overcome the amount of attempts that is made to gain at least +1 unit.
Illustration and example.
Lets assume we only attack twice to capture a certain event to win at least +1 unit.
Then the total gain/won units as to overcome the total amount of two loses.
Then we have the line: 1 1
A total loss would be -2
A total gain would be +1
First we name the march wish indicate wish method we use to capture the events with.
Then when we start to test this and we categorize the files with date - example 20101207.
Then we add the amount of qualified states - example (3).
Then we just add the +1 if a win and -2 if a loss.
At the end we write the totals.
Example.
The Sloppy March.
Date 20101207
States 4
+1
+1
+1
+1
Total gain +4
Total loss 0
The Sloppy March
Date 20101208
States 5
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
Total gain +5
Total loss 0
Basics Advance - The Experiment.
As I mention above every trail is independent.
So when we test our first March with rules how to capture certain events it should not be any difference if we use any other sequence then The Ultimate Perfect State as the result should be the same.
I am not a fool and I will not fool you.
You have the Simulation Software.
You know to make simple charts of statistics/results.
So to verify if it is nonsense or a fact or fiction you just compare.
Example foll wing same March after every series of two like RR or BB wish should give the same results as you use The Ultimate Perfect State.
This way you can find out if past results and bet-selection is bogus or not - simple as that.
Basic Advance - The Experiment.
One strategy is to try to capture a small quick correction to capture one out of two new states to appear direct after a strong imbalance.
That is why i compare it with betting against or with any bet-selection as for example as series of two and it would make no difference.
The main point i want to make clear is that when we track and measuring to find a state with a strong imbalance - we should not chase or force our self try to hit and capture events with out having any kind of indication towards a significant change among the states.
As the imbalance can continue to grow and get stronger as nothing is due to happen we never know when it will stop to grow until we can observe a significant change.
Now some one might think that just because i or we observe a significant change towards new states and the imbalance stop to grow that we would be home free to harvest and capture all does new strings of events with different formations - it is not that simple.
One thing that can occur is that when we find a strong imbalance is that it goes back to back to a certain degree.
It might get a small draw-down as a opposite effect/correction from previous state and get weaker to a certain degree or just hovering at zero point where it stop to grow stronger and does not get weaker - and we have no clue what so ever for how long this state will be present.
The thing with Cut Point Methodology is that you create a scenario where you know that in the future certain states will appear with high probability and you will observe them over and over again no matter how many 100 000 trails samples you run following this playing model.
The short, medium and large corrections of the imbalance is observations and indication of new states before real play and there exist various of methods to capture them using a march - specific algorithm - betting behavior following certain rules.
The basic idea is that when you have The Ultimate Perfect State with pure singles that you will get separated series of the other two states in the future and a mix of both as a part of correction from a strong imbalance.
Now nothing is due to happen and the trails are independent and everything can happen.
The general talk is that you can observe 100 reds in a row and is useless to play black as the trails is independent you can still get 100 more reads witch would become a total of 200 reads in a row.
So what do we have - i tell you - we only know what has happened and can only use that as our bench mark being the negative expectation or try to be realistic that during our life time we will not experience a 6.0 STD or above during 200 trails.
Note.
There is no such thing as - The law of series - as its only is observations.
When we use different variations of ways to use a march - flat betting - then i just want to add the following.
The warning is that even if you believe you find a positive expectation with one among does ways to capture correction - so will natural fluctuation and overrepresented strings of sequences / states find its way around any betting you can think of in the long run - maybe not during your life time or next day or week - but it will happen.
Obvious many thought i would speak about the house edge as the main reason - but is not.
As if you can gain at least +1 unit and it overcome the attempts doing so flat-betting - then you can use any bet size and place a % to cover the zero tax - witch would be best with a La Partage rule - that means you only lose half your bet if zero strikes on even money position.
Basics Advance - Details.
I would talk a little about how to capture one state and two states witch unfold them self like a flower in the future witch is a head of us.
They can come in any combination and now I will deal with this in details as when we use a march I want you to know what it is based upon.
Now the example with The Ultimate Perfect State is a pure imbalance with only isolated singles events.
So the expectation in the future is to observe formation of series of the other two states to unfold them self.
Then they will come as states as single events and as two in a row and three in a row and so on.
We have no clue if they will come as a single short state or if we will observe for example a state which is very large.
And we can get booth this state appear as singles events with different length or we can get Booth mix together with different formations and length.
Example if we would wait for the first single event of a state to appear and play twice to capture it to continue or unfold to the other underrepresented state we could end up with it being single state and lose two bets - and as we so many times mention nothing is due so we could continue to get only single states to appear with out any greater length to capture.
Here there exist two alternatives.
The first one is only to start an attack after a fictive win as a tendency or indication for present correction and then if the first attack fails start to attack after every new present state appears to become with a greater length.
The intention here is that with out any tendency or indication towards a significant change it is no idea to place any bets.
It is a simple thought witch is common regarding Cut Point Methodology and this has different ways using this way of thinking when some one develops a march to capture underrepresented states/formations/waves.
The best option is to aim with one attack with one attempt to capture one state among two underrepresented states - but first we make this simple to capture one out of two underrepresented states.