Does zero really have so much power?
I have been running a simulation of a roulette system on a single-zero wheel and it turned out to be a loser. Then I tried running the simulation by betting the opposite of before thinking that it would win, but it also was a losing system.
As you can see on the graph included I have included both systems in same grap. Then I tried to run the simulation but I took out the zeros of the simulation. And now I get a graph looking much much better.
So as you can see on the two graphs. The balance follows the same pattern but with the zero included it just keeps going down.
So is the zero really the thing killing all of our systems? I need to do more tests to find out but I have never thought that the zero had so much power.
No, it does not.
The Power is achieved by being payed 35/1 for a 36/1 outcome.
Its not does it have so much power.............................
.....................its, is its POWER
...................................ABSOLUTE!!!!
yes. x
ok. I can relax then :)
Yes, it have such power. BUT - try your simualation with a single number instead of ECs. It takes much more time, before you can see it eating your bankroll. Say 100000 spins. Chances with a big variance are best way to beat zero in a middle term. Flatbetting one number, you can have a profit even after 100000 spins, but you pay for that by higher probability of being in greater loss.
With EC, on average you win every second spin, and payout is 1:1, so there is not much space for a good luck, because each zero moves the center of graph down. With a single number, you win every 37 spins, while payout is only 35. As with ECs, on average you lose one unit every 37 spins, but there is just much more room for a good luck. It is not such a big deal if it hits earlier or later than it should on average. Many times sleeping for 500 spins is a correction for an earlier winning trend. So zero is not really such a big deal for singles, and all good systems should utilize this fact - most spins should be played on single, and MAYBE if it is sleeping too long move to lower payout locations in order to slow losing streak, but do not be there for too long, maybe max. 5-10% of all bets.
Quote from: mr.ore on Jan 06, 02:39 PM 2011
Yes, it have such power. BUT - try your simualation with a single number instead of ECs. It takes much more time, before you can see it eating your bankroll. Say 100000 spins. Chances with a big variance are best way to beat zero in a middle term. Flatbetting one number, you can have a profit even after 100000 spins, but you pay for that by higher probability of being in greater loss.
Are you helping Victor with his tipping service?
@GM
thanks for this interesting simulation.
may I ask a question? which 'zero rule' did you use? la partage, en prison oder did you count the zero as an immidiate loss?
cheers
hans
No, it does not.
The Power is achieved by being payed 35/1 for a 37/1 outcome.
I agree
I'm not helping Victor, just telling my opinion. Anyway 100000 spins is too much even for singles according to my simulations, maybe 10000 spins is better number of spins where zero does not show that much and game is almost "fair". Look at the simulation of 131072 spins, all 37 numbers are there.
Well, let's consider 8192 spins as a number of spins, where the game is almost fair if flat betting single, anything above that might be problematic, the more spins, the bigger a hole.
..................and they are all (nearly all) going downhill !!
That right sir?
Yes, they are all going downhill, that is the power of unfair payout. Only way here is a progression, and that is also goind downhill, maybe even faster. We would have to invent a very mild progression which would make the game fair for more thousands of spins. I had a system based on labouchere which survived about 50000 spins on ECs, where after every spins I restructured the line to have the bigger probability of winning (computer algorithm, testing all possibilities in near spins...), but I have thrown it because it was useless anyway. If it's not winning just surviving at zero balance, and possible loss is big, why to bother, right? But if we just wanted to prolong "almost fairness", maybe it would be possible. Maybe even some bet selection would help? In the long term and mathematically no, but how often do you see on the graph that after a sleeper awoken once, it become sleeper right again? There are usually at least three "normal" hits before it sleeps again. Combining all this might be useful, and bet selection cannot hurt anything, since it does nothing, according to math.
Other than the EC's, big deal regarding the zero(s). Its no different than a 16 or a 33 etc.
Ken
Quote from: mr.ore on Jan 06, 06:44 PM 2011
Yes, they are all going downhill, that is the power of unfair payout. Only way here is a progression, and that is also goind downhill, maybe even faster. We would have to invent a very mild progression which would make the game fair for more thousands of spins. I had a system based on labouchere which survived about 50000 spins on ECs, where after every spins I restructured the line to have the bigger probability of winning (computer algorithm, testing all possibilities in near spins...), but I have thrown it because it was useless anyway. If it's not winning just surviving at zero balance, and possible loss is big, why to bother, right? But if we just wanted to prolong "almost fairness", maybe it would be possible. Maybe even some bet selection would help? In the long term and mathematically no, but how often do you see on the graph that after a sleeper awoken once, it become sleeper right again? There are usually at least three "normal" hits before it sleeps again. Combining all this might be useful, and bet selection cannot hurt anything, since it does nothing, according to math.
You are coming "into stride", mr. ore! Takes a lot of conceptionalizing to get to where you are, and will be.
This guy knows how to fight.
Zero is fatal for all sorts of bets except if someone is playing straight ups or wheel sectors.
Why cant the zero be included in a wheel sector?
Ken
Albalaha said EXCEPT straight up or wheel sectors so the 0 could be included in wheel sectors, Mr. J.
My opinion on the 0 is include it as a part of your system and you will win more times than you lose. I plan to include it in my systems even if it means having a larger bankroll and having less profits than I'd like. Put the house edge in YOUR favor instead of the casino's! Just my two cents.
There is no need to include zero in wheel sector. It won't change anything. What is to be dealt with is the fact, that there are more numbers than there should be according to payouts. There should be only 36 numbers for a fair game. It is simple to see the effect of zero on outside chances, but the way it works is no different from any other chance. There is not much difference if you play red and black or zero hits. Zero is just another black. If one black would never hit, and zero was hitting instead of that, the game would be still fair in this case. that means, that zero can be hitting, but even so red can have a winning streak...
So the question remains - how to deal with unfair payouts? That means to beat odds. How to beat odds? With progression. But that does not work forever. So we need to make a really good progression, and maybe bet selection. So there comes what we all are trying to do - make a good roulette system.
Criteria for the system:
1. Always betting one number.
2. Very mild progression.
3. Bet selection based maybe on awaked sleepers.
4. In 100000 spins, all 37 number if played this system on them, should end up with balance AS IF THE GAME WERE FAIR.
5. Never bet more than 1.5-2 units on average.
"No, it does not.
The Power is achieved by being payed 35/1 for a 37/1 outcome. "
-I'll second that. Think about this though- The above fact combined with a zero on the table gives the casino a 2,7% house edge, so, when we lose, we only lose 2,7% of our bankroll yeh?
Woods. (an enlightened Manrique advocate!)
zero is not a taboo. just a number amongst 37 numbers of the wheel. It should be given as much importance as others. while we play outside bets or line or street bets, zero comes as a villain and destroys all probabilities. Zero can be kept or left as any one number of the wheel to remain unaffected from the house edge. When I divide wheel into three sectors (my self defined sectors not voisins etc.) I leave 1 instead of 0. It is a matter of choice.
I read about a very simple system, called force the zero. You bet 1 unit on red,1 unit on black, and 1 unit on zero. I won 3 quick sessions online and then came the losing streak. It was almost like the RNG recognized what I was doing and stopped sending me zeros. Has anyone else tried this?
Yep.
here (link:://rouletteforum.cc/online-gaming/the-premise-for-the-fun-gamechallenge/msg29076/?topicseen#msg29076).
Forced zero is a nonsense. Absolute nonsense. Illusion, stupidity. Usually wins comes in waves, then a number sleeps for some time. If you put two units on a zero and one unit on red and black, then if you are lucky, the zeros are clustered, and you win, but you also lose because of two units on red and black. Than it comes into sleeper mode, and you lose. RNG detects nothing, it does not care whether you bet red or black, it does not have to, because it is RNG. Forced zero is a system used to promote affiliate links to online casinos, it is a SCAM. Why should it work? No programmer is so stupid as to force more zeros just because there are bets on red and black, while there is more on zero - it would be only logical to not show zero so much, and take units from zero.
Better than forced zero - just bet zero with one unit, results will be better, because house edge would not eat so much.
Funny, I had said that in a very similar way some time ago in Forum, and was trying to add it to my post to crownroyal .
I couldn't find it in time for my modify of post.
Ur quite right of course.
It IS a scam.
It IS propogated in such places as the UTube video site.
Having said, that, everytime I have played on-line with free new money (Real Accounts),
then the ZERO (my beautiful ugly Green Goblin brother) has always arrived (the 1ST one)
within the session 10 spins.
Only happens when U log onto a BRAND-NEW-TO-U RNG casino.
So maybe there IS something that the casino notes about Ur arrival and play!!!! :-[
Thanks Guys, Appreciate the info.
QuoteI read about a very simple system, called force the zero. You bet 1 unit on red,1 unit on black, and 1 unit on zero. I won 3 quick sessions online and then came the losing streak. It was almost like the RNG recognized what I was doing and stopped sending me zeros. Has anyone else tried this?
IT IS SCAM. DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME.