Hi
How do i determine the Z-score for even chance betting and what kind of score would be good?
Regards
Max
For a even chance is the numbers covered =2
Then the number of bets =97
Numbers won =57
Z-SCORE THEN 23.24 ?
Regards
Max
Or should it be :
For a even chance is the numbers covered =18
Then the number of bets =97
Numbers won =57
Z-SCORE THEN 1.99
RegardsMax
n:=97 (bets)
m:=57 (hits)
p:=18/37=0.486486486 (probability)
zscore:=(m-n*p)/sqrt(n*p*(1-p))=1.99
Nice to see U back around Chris. :thumbsup:
Thanks ophis.
How is the z-score applicable to roulette.
This 1.99 what does it tell me.
Regard
Max
Ok i found this.
z-score of 1.0 - there is a 16% chance that your results are due to luck.
z-score of 2.0 - there is a 2.3% chance that your results are due to luck.
z-score of 3.0 - there is a 0.13% chance that your results are due to luck.
Regards
MAX
Whilst U wait for the experts to come and post U a suitable reply, i can tell u of my take on it, from my memory of its use in the MST tracker.
Any Z-score less than 1 is a losing system, and u will lose BR.
Between 1 and 2, is Moderate (sounds more like the weather report).. in performance.
the main indicator that the maths boyz use, is when a Z-score is approaching ,and thereafter passing the magic number "3".
Anything better than 3 Z-score, is a winning hand.
So tracking the Trend of a system/plays Z-score, and seeing it rise, and maybe get near to "3", is the thing to Look for, and then Bet on the continuation of a High Z-score.
When things start to slide, and the Z-score dips below 2.5 then its time to consider leaving Ur system off the table/wheel. and go for a coffee.
And whilst Ur there, see if U can catch sight of the Illusive Mr James Wendell, Aka WinWIthMAths, and a whole host of other user names!! lol
Now over to u maths Boyz..........
Chrisbis
Thanks for the explanation know i understand it better.
Regards
Max
14% winning rate equals a 3,07 z-score
9% winning rate equals a 2,07 z-score
4% winning rate equals a 1,07 z-score
Know i wonder if a average of 1,07 z-score can also lead to winning long term method?
Regards
Max
.......only if its ascending in Numerical value.>>
If static................its risky.
But then again the whole game is RISKY!! lol
You can assume that you won't get a z-score higher than 8 in your lifetime. Ofcourse it can happen but probably not, I think it was ego or Bayes who said that. We talked about it when we tested the labby and we got some real horrible sessions there with z-score of over 5 I think.
You can get z-scores of over 5 but it's extremely unlikely over a larger sample. In the short term it's possible. For example, I think the record for the longest sleep of an EC is 36 spins which is -6, but over 200 spins the worst ratio will be roughly 135:65 which is just under -5.0. The longer the sequence, the less chance of seeing a really extreme deviation. Even over 1000 spins you're unlikely to see any thing as extreme as a ratio of 400:600 - a z-score of ±3.00 is 450:550, but in 10,000 spins a ratio of 4500:5500 is -10.00; you'll never see it.
Flat betting.
The number of won units is to be divided by the root from the placed bets.
0.5 Keep looking
1.0 Keep looking
1.5 Hint
2.0 Interesting
2.5 Good /
3.0 Very good
3.5 Super
4.0 Dream on
4.5 You wish
5.0 Forget it
5.5 Never in an life time
6.0 The end of roulette as we know it
1024 placed bets would be the absolute minimum to get an hint about the method you test.
Quote from: ophis on Sep 12, 03:20 PM 2011
n:=97 (bets)
m:=57 (hits)
p:=18/37=0.486486486 (probability)
zscore:=(m-n*p)/sqrt(n*p*(1-p))=1.99
I dont get this answer at all? I wanna also calculate a z-score for 35 numbers but i cant do it even using that example
Juiced91
Here is a excel worksheet to calculate the z-score.
Regards
Max
Thanks a lot. :)
4500 to 5500 is -10 z-score.
It means 12,7 standard deviations, hard to see in your life.
What´s the difference between z-score and Standanrd deviation?
Hi Toby,
Check out here
link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=13193.0 (link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=13193.0)
reply #4 is most pertinent to your question
Thank you blood angel.
There´s another way to see the same scenario.
Although I find the z-score calculator and St dev calculator the same there is an "statictics standard deviation".
It applyies when you have a sample, you find the mean and take the + and - of the mean.
You square the 37 differencies, sum them and you have the variance, the square root of the variance we know is the value of 1 st dev.
This measure, I guess is to separate when you have already the data or when you have really played what you have.
3 statictics St dev is close to 4 real binomial standard deviations.