How many times have I argued with other Advantage-play (cough) guys here regarding using PAST numbers? They *ALL* say, using past numbers in ANY form is gamblers fallacy and a NO, NO.
Really? >>
I have no idea why the link does not work on THIS board? So......link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=19792.msg144209;topicseen#msg144209 (link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=19792.msg144209;topicseen#msg144209)
I don't want to start a war but I really like their "Expert" rank. Gave me a smile...
My title is......'VB2 Advanced'.
Thank God for that, I was getting worried.
Ken
Ken the way I read it was they wait that many spins. They never said they used those spins to determine any future bets like we do. Well that's what I understood. But I don't know anything about that stuff anyway.
What's the definition of this? ...."using those spins".
I could re-word my point/question. Can they place bets WITHOUT VIEWING (use whatever term you want) PAST spins? The answer is NO. So in their situation, they do NEED past number statistics.
Ken
Yes correct. They need to see what's happening on the table with statistics like you said. So if they say they can without it. That's a lie.
You can reword it anyway you like it doesn`t change the context. We don`t need the past numbers, not even previous spins. We can start playing from spin one with a wild bet and then adjust as we go along. But the return for the session is usually higher if you don`t make any bets before you know whats going on and save the wild bets that has an expectation of -2.7%.
Sometimes where they have a "bell politic" where they start an electronic noise just before a VB player is about to make a bet, if they suspect one is present, it can be helpfull to act like Lucky Luke and make all sort of bets on the EC or Dozens, maybe even do some number tracking so they think we are Mr J, and that way make them stay loose on the bell politic.
This is YOUR QUOTE Kelly >> "an advantage player uses past spins".
"We can start playing from spin one with a wild bet and then adjust as we go along" >>> Lets take a closer look at this. So lets say for that 'wild bet'........a 24 hits. Do you then take the KNOWLEDGE that the 24 just hit and 'adjust' as needed? What would you do with the INFORMATION that the 24 has hit?
Ken
The number 24 would as such not mean anything. What would mean something is how many pockets the outcome number would be from my prediction, If the rotor was spinning with 3.0 sec, per, revoloution and 24 was +8 pockets from my prediction, it would mean that i would have to adjust the point where i am reading the outcome number, 8 pockets to the left next time this moment arrives. At this point i have no knowledge of the ball scatter length except previous experience with this ball type, so it woiuld be a little bit of guess work in the beginning.
To play it properly we do need past spins, but not past numbers. Gamblers Fallacy is when past numbers gives an expectation of future numbers. Whatever comes out numberwise has no influence on the decisions. The distance between the predictions and the outcome number means something.
Basicly, if i know when the ball is going to drop in 9 seconds and the wheel is turning with a speed of 3.0 sec per rev. i can just look in the bowl and read which number is below the ball at this moment. This number is where the ball is going to drop on. I would have to adjust for the average scatter, but if we for simplicity say that the average scatter is 0 pockets, the number below the ball at this moment is also the prediction number.
Or simplistic put: If i was told the tilt high point was at 2 oclock diamond and that the average scatter was 12 pockets i would not need any past spins at all.
Regardless of past numbers.
I know i just wasted 5 minutes but what the heck.
"To play it properly we do need past spins, but not past numbers" >>> You can fool some of these guys but not me. So now we are debating the definitions between spins vs. numbers? (LoL) What do you think makes up those spins? Animal crackers?
Its a very, very, very simple question......can you (as an Advantage-play guy) walk up to a table (the history board is broke), and start betting from the first spin? After that ONE spin (win or lose) move on to the next table for, ONE spin (win or lose)......move on to the next table for, ONE spin (win or lose)......move on to the next table for, ONE spin (win or lose).......move on to the next table for, ONE spin etc.
As goofy as this may sound, CAN YOU do this with your Advantage-play (cough) style of play? If no, why not? Its rhetorical but I can't wait to read your crafty answer. FACT being, no you can NOT, nor can I and nor can MOST people that play almost ANY type roulette method or Advantage-play.
Ken
And its a simple answer.
If you tell me the tilt high and the average scatter up front i can play any table from spin 1.
I know you dont agree that measuring the physics in past spins is different than noting down numbers. Well, AP is your favourite hate passion so i guess most facts well propell off.
The physichs do NOT change. A Teflon ball with an average scatter of 10 - 12 pockets is not suddenly changing its average to 28 pockets simply because it has a certain physich composition that makes it impossible.
If a ball track is slightly defect or the wheel is slightly unbalanced, the tilt is not suddenly going to change a lot unless someone manually do something about it.
Thats what is being collected in past spins, not numbers. Numbers come and go, the physics of the wheel remains the same unless maintenence steps in and do something.
But you are right, we do need past spins since they won`t allow us to put a level in the ball track.
"If you tell me the tilt high and the average scatter up front i can play" >>> No, I won't tell you a thing, you have no up front information.
"I know you don't agree that measuring the physics in past spins is different than noting down numbers" >>> You got me all wrong Kelly. It is different, I never argued that point. My point has ALWAYS been, you guys DO use past numbers.......oops sorry, past spins.
Question for you Kelly. You seem to stay away from using the word 'numbers'. Alright, lets say (this is pretend so just play along) there is a wheel with NO numbers, only pockets and no markings on the wheel. You look at the 'spins' to locate whatever, how crucial are those numbers now? I'm not saying the 4-21-2 are 'important', but you do need to jot down (or remember) certain numbers at least for betting purposes, correct? When you bet, if memory serves me, you do bet on numbers, correct? You dont give the dealer your chips and say......place these on the tilted section.
"But you are right, we do need past spins" >>> Thank you. I already knew that but thank you.
I give you credit on one thing Kelly. You at least answer me and contribute. Other AP guys feel cornered when I grill them (its a gift I have) and they simply choose to RUN and HIDE and then claim......."well its a secret, I really cant talk about it".
You dont do that and its much appreciated, I do mean that !!
Ken
Ðdvantage play is not a myth, Ken. I don't understand what is your point. Advantage play is based on certain physical properties of the wheel, what's wrong with that? There is nothing to argue about.
The only thing is that it is very hard. It is much easier to pick certain numbers and play them.
You seems to think that AP is some kind of voodoo which is aint. Advantage play is simply exploring a defect in the wheel. Usually you can`t see that defect with the eye, but you can see that the ball reacts on it. And you use that knowledge to your advantage. Obviously you need to see how the ball reacts and you need to see some spins for that.
The only issue i have is that you basket that knowledge in the same basket as gamblers fallacy because its past spins. The info you get by collecting numbers is a random stream.
The physical data from a "defect" wheel shows data (not numbers) that clumps up way past 3, 4 or 5 Standard Deviations. The ordinary number stream moves around between 1 and 2 standard deviations in rare cases touches 3 standard deviations. Its obviously much easyer to make a profit where the fluctations in one direction goes up in 4 or 5 SD, rather than in streams where the fluctations in a normal distribution only touches 2 SD in 94% of all cases.
The defects im talking about are usually not big enough to influence the number stream in any way. If you know what to look for you would pretty fast agree to, that there are far between absoloutely perfect wheels.
Laurance challenged the casinos some time ago, but no one took the challenge.
link:://:.gamingfloor.biz/forum/showthread.php?t=2038&highlight=laurance+challenge (link:://:.gamingfloor.biz/forum/showthread.php?t=2038&highlight=laurance+challenge)
He wants 2500 recorded data, (past spins) but is then required to bet every spin for 5000 spins.
Kelly, is there some material online where to read about criteria of "standard deviation" and levels beyond it? thanx
I just use laurances software for the analysis, which works like a charm.
(link:://img153.imageshack.us/img153/2446/cammegh2dv5.jpg)
Try google SD in relationship with bias or roulette.
thanx
Quote from: iggiv on Feb 11, 10:48 AM 2012
Ðdvantage play is not a myth, Ken. I don't understand what is your point. Advantage play is based on certain physical properties of the wheel, what's wrong with that? There is nothing to argue about.
The only thing is that it is very hard. It is much easier to pick certain numbers and play them.
There seems to be two different subjects going on at once. On THIS thread, my point has to do with.....do you need past results in order to bet with Advantage-play? (gamblers fallacy and the CHANGING definitions of gamblers fallacy to suit one's needs)
If you want to start your OWN thread on a DIFFERENT subject in regards to Advantage-play, be my guest.
Ken
(Ken, i am sorry if i was out of line here. Honestly i hardly understand all this "cough" at Advantage-play :) .
What these guys say -- makes PERFECT sense. It is just what they do is very hard to. Especially being online and having tight schedule and no casinos around close by)
Past numbers in advantage play are used totally different. Either they are used in long numbers of them (to make statistics on a long run), or to count pockets as Kelly said, or just as a confirmation of a
wheel defect, combined maybe with other PHYSICAL conditions.
What is meant by term "gambler fallacy" is usually "if such and such numbers came up now (say within 1 to 100 spins usually), such and such numbers have to come soon" -- and this is without looking at wheel physical conditions or what numbers came up within last 2000 or 5000 spins.
Also "gambler fallacy" is usually used on any wheel u chose (not like advantage play where they
frequently reject many wheels to play when they see unplayable conditions).
That's how i understand it. The approach is very different in nature. Mixing one with another does not make sense.
and by the way u yourself may use AP elements even without thinking about it. When u play most repeated recent numbers there is some slight possibility that under these very certain physical conditions these numbers became temp biased.
Thats what Franc Scoblete suggests. Look at the wheel last spins and if u see something that looks like it can be biased right now, maybe it really is (or maybe not), so take your chances. U may have some luck or u may even hit a bias sometimes.
"Past numbers in advantage play are used totally different" >>> Yes I agree and said so in this thread (somewhere). It does NOT erase the fact that they *ARE* used, regardless of WHY.
"What these guys say -- makes PERFECT sense" >>> What these guys have in front of them is great in THEORY, looks good on paper, nothing more.
Ken
Quote from: iggiv on Feb 11, 05:30 PM 2012
and by the way u yourself may use Advantage-play elements even without thinking about it. When u play most repeated recent numbers there is some slight possibility that under these very certain physical conditions these numbers became temp biased.
that's what Franc Scoblete suggests. Look at the wheel last spins and if u see something that looks like it can be biased right now, maybe it really is (or maybe not), so take your chances. U may have some luck or u may even hit a bias sometimes.
I've already done a thread on this subject. Yes, it is possible.....lets say I'm betting on the section with the most hits, its the 4-23-35-14 section (00 wheel). Lets also say, that section has a SLIGHT bias and I'm getting some pretty good wins along the way. Why would I care what the reason is for winning? Do I need to give it a TITLE of 'bias'? Winning is winning regardless of why. If certain numbers are hitting more than they should, I don't care why, just as long as my wallet is getting stuffed.
Ken
now imagine yourself finding such numbers hitting consistently say on 20-30 wheels through some US region and playing on them making on one of them 2k couple of times a week. You'll visit each of them once 2 or 3 months.
that could be something what our AP guys are talking about.
Quote from: iggiv on Feb 11, 09:01 PM 2012
now imagine yourself finding such numbers hitting consistently say on 20-30 wheels through some US region and playing on them making on one of them 2k couple of times a week. You'll visit each of them once 2 or 3 months.
that could be something what our Advantage-play guys are talking about.
For starters, I make (net) 2K a couple times a week without Advantage-play. Second, are the bulls**t facts they don't talk about much. The U.S. is a big country and not every city/state has a casino. So all these visits BACK to the casino (as you said) are quite costly on gas and hotel. That would not be an issue if you KNEW the wheel was not repaired/replaced at 6am.
You won't hear the stories of the Advantage-play guy going back to such-n-such casino and the wheel they THOUGHT was bias.......is now fixed. ooops, they lost 5K betting on a section and guess what? Its time to get back into the car and head home for that Monday morning job they hate so much.
Ken
congrats, i could not imagine u win on such a big scale. Well i am not AP guy, so there is not much i can talk about
I only bet 2-3 numbers and use high unit sizes. 2K is nice but not a big deal.
Ken
How come you can net 2K X 2 a week with a strategy that no one can get in profit using real spins in a test ? Remember only 18 months ago you were playing sleepers and also winning. (you write 4.5 years and still counting in your signature). When confronted, you say you changed to hot numbers because of heavy losses on sleepers (what happened to 4.5 years has it changed to 18 months ?)
18 month x 4 = 72 x 4 = 288.000 $ in profit.
You are a bullshitter ken.
when i read Ken telling that i think he may have a gift to be naturally lucky. It is possible too. As much as i know such things did happen in human history. What sense does it make just to bluntly lie? It does not put money into his pocket.
Quote from: kelly on Feb 11, 10:20 PM 2012
How come you can net 2K X 2 a week with a strategy that no one can get in profit using real spins in a test ? Remember only 18 months ago you were playing sleepers and also winning. (you write 4.5 years and still counting in your signature). When confronted, you say you changed to hot numbers because of heavy losses on sleepers (what happened to 4.5 years has it changed to 18 months ?)
18 month x 4 = 72 x 4 = 288.000 $ in profit.
You are a bullshitter ken.
I respect your opinion, no problem. You sure sound like someone else I know. I've answered this ALREADY and I'm sure you'll ask it again in a couple months. When a person CHANGES how they play, I have never heard of it being done over night, have you? I slowly switched from sleepers to hot, like I said, it was not over night.
My net winning days for sleepers was quite high, I mean REAL NICE but as months went by, the wins were coming less and less so I dropped the sleeper methods. Another thing you did NOT mention is TOTAL time playing roulette. You only mentioned the last 4.5 years. I have been playing for around 11 years (est.)
I still remember the MAIN reason (not the only reason) for quitting sleepers. I was betting only one number, with a 120 step progression. I would play the furthest back unhit.
If I recall, the number was not hit in over 250 spins PLUS the 120 step progression. It STILL did not hit in over 370 spins, I lost around $3,600. I left so I have no clue when it did hit. That's when I decided to check into other TYPES of betting. Testing first of course and then slowly into the casino (hot numbers). So far (knock on wood) I love it. Whether its hot number(s) or a hot section, its what I presently enjoy. Bulls**t hey? I make more than you do Kelly, you can think about that as you are driving 280 miles to the NEXT casino.
Ken
I seriously don`t know how much you make if you play at all, and you don`t know how much i make. So we can`t compare our apples with pears. I only know what i know about you from what you tell, and your stories don`t add up. Last time it was several 3 K losses you had. If your total play is 11 years and your winning years are 4.5 years, its then a new presentation. Looking forward to to version 4 or is it 5.
Quote from: kelly on Feb 11, 11:06 PM 2012
I seriously don`t know how much you make if you play at all, and you don`t know how much i make. So we can`t compare our apples with pears. I only know what i know about you from what you tell, and your stories don`t add up. Last time it was several 3 K losses you had. If your total play is 11 years and your winning years are 4.5 years, its then a new presentation. Looking forward to to version 4 or is it 5.
"its then a new presentation" >>> Wrong answer. I have posted *MANY* times the TOTAL number of years played, please quote me correctly in the future. I dont mis-quote you.
"if you play at all" >>> Well, I saw Snowman here at my local casino. I certainly was not at the casino to use the bathroom.
Ken
Does that mean you have been losing for 6.5 years ?
Quote from: kelly on Feb 11, 11:16 PM 2012
Does that mean you have been losing for 6.5 years ?
Yes, but AGAIN, thats an estimate, please remember that.
My first style of play was like many other guys.....using the Marty.
Ken
wow? tell me more? do u know him visually? did u shake hands?
Quote from: MrJ on Feb 11, 11:13 PM 2012
Well, I saw Snowman here at my local casino.
Ken
I thought this was out in the open? I saw him, he did not see me. I kind of regret not saying hello, it really cant hurt anything. This was around a month ago.
Ken