This is work in progress but thought I'd share the idea. The point and figure method of charting stocks is one of the oldest techniques of technical analysis used by traders, although other strategies seem to be more popular these days. The method attempts to put you on the current trend and keep you there as long as it lasts. Adapting it to an even money game is simple, for example, let x = red and o = black and suppose the first few spins are R, B, B, B, R, R, B, R, B, B, B, B. Your chart would look like this:
x
o x x
o x o o
o o
o
o
I think you get the idea.
You can plot the chart manually using squared paper, or use excel. I've written a program which makes it easier, here's a screenshot of a session I played this morning (note that I used different coloured o's instead of x's because the coding was easier) :
[attachimg=1]
So how do you stay on the trend? simple, if the CURRENT line of x's or o's moves to 1 higher than the PREVIOUS line, then you start betting for the "breakout" to continue, in other words assume that it's the start of a trend and bet on it. Refer to the screenshot for an example; the first few spins were wins for red, on the 4th spin red moved lower than its previous line, so I started betting at spin 4 on red. I continued betting on red until black achieved a breakout (this occurred at spin 23) then I switched to betting black. Success for black was short-lived, however, and red broke out again a few spins later, prompting another switch in betting.
That's really all there is to it, although there are many possible variations. I have gotten better results following the trend betting DBL (Decision before last). That means I don't take, for example, o = red and x = black, but o = a WIN for DBL, and x = a LOSS for DBL (or vice-versa, it doesn't matter as long as you're consistent). You could use the method with ANY bet selection, in fact.
Another possibility (which I haven't investigated yet), is to take multiple spins representing each x or o. For example, instead of using 1 spin = 1 x or o, take 3 spins at a time and mark a x if there are 2 or more reds, and a o if there are 2 or more blacks, that way you only get a breakout if there is a fairly strong trend.
By the way, the reasons why this method supposedly works on stocks don't exist in roulette (or any fixed odds game); there is no psychology involved and no supply and demand, it's merely a way of trying to keep on the current trend.
Nice work - very cool ...
I think is more easy to chart does horizontal with i know Johno at GG does (baccarat player) ...
x
o x x
o x o o
o o
o
o
Could be ...
X
000
XX
0
X
00000
Cheers
If you want to know more about point n figure charting (different formations, optimisation etc) I've attached a nice book. If it doesn't work on roulette, you might have better results doing real trading. ;)
[attachmini=1]
Very nice work - very nice PDF - it is with the same line of thinking when i experiment - great contribution Bayes.
I see this working using the method above and it also apply to different ways when it boils down to sport-betting.
Pretty cool.
PS i don't use it for real but i enjoy experimenting ...
Bayes
Very interesting. Will you make the program available?
Thanks for the input.
Sam
O0
thank you very much. That is great. i promise further explorations.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Apr 11, 09:13 AM 2012
Will you make the program available?
Hi Sam,
Yes, but there are still a few options I want to implement. It probably won't run out of the box on anything except Win XP, so you might need to download "Dosbox", which is a DOS emulator for playing old games (for anyone under about 30 who doesn't know what DOS is, don't worry about it, I'll give instructions on how to set it up, it's easy).
Very nice session I played this morning, it's best when the outcomes are trending -
[attachimg=1]
Again, this was betting DBL.
The nemesis is "ranging" behaviour (more horizontal movement than up and down), but even then it has to be specific to give heavy losses. The worst possible outcome is when you get long streaks of exactly the same length on both sides of the bet selection, but this is rare, and with judicious MM you can ride out the worst of it when it happens.
Quote from: albertojonas on Apr 11, 08:43 PM 2012
O0
thank you very much. That is great. i promise further explorations.
Thanks, any feedback is welcome. Don't forget this is a kind of meta bet selection which can be used for any method of choosing your bets. If you have a what seems to be a good trending system, try it with this. One of the things I'm going to add to the program is an option to select wins and losses, so rather than have a selection "hard-wired" as it were, the chart will be built up from wins and losses, which can obviously apply to any bet selection. The chart will then show you when to switch from bet to anti-bet.
Another thing to make use of is the grid. It's rare that the chart spans more than 4 squares vertically over 100 or so spins, so you could use this as a factor in your decisions, a little like the Bollinger bands some traders use.
QuoteAnother thing to make use of is the grid. It's rare that the chart spans more than 4 squares vertically over 100 or so spins, so you could use this as a factor in your decisions, a little like the Bollinger bands some traders use.
Can you explain that further in more detail as i don't fully grasp it.
Cheers
Dear Bayes,
your efforts are priceless.
I am very excited with the option for wins and losses strings.
What i expect is to improve somehow the strike ratio of any bet selection. I will experiment today with imbalance and favorites (i am glad ego is participating on this thread also as he likes to have fun with this too), as i feel it very promising.
Cheers
I'm so glad to see some of you working on trends and patterns.
For me it all comes down to visual dexterity. In my type of charts you can see the red & blacks but you can't see the over all dominations because of the confines of the charts.
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=5931.0 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=5931.0) If you look down the page you can see what I mean.
I like this kind of charting found in the graph of Bayes' software. It also identifies the over all domination.
link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=20003.0 (link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=20003.0) BTW I did make things clear about my secrets.
Bayes
I knew there was some reason I started visiting the forums again.
It is a pleasure to read someone who writes without benefit of obfuscation, bloviation, or smoke and mirrors.
I have thousands of old spins from Dublin. I will learn to chart this on graph paper.
TwoCatSam
(And my wife read it and wants to go to Vegas!)
Quote from: ego on Apr 12, 06:22 AM 2012
Can you explain that further in more detail as i don't fully grasp it.
Just saying, I added the grid for a reason. I haven't worked out the standard deviations in terms of the squares, but if you did that then you could use the grid as a guide to the limits one side is likely to go (or not go beyond). For example, if you were to get 20 blacks in a row (or 20 wins in a row) then this would cover 4 squares (5 spins per square) vertically but the horizontal movement would be zero squares. This would be very rare, but what would the rate of change be in terms of squares for an SD of 3.0? (ie: no. of squares up/down divided by no. of square along).
Cool ... This evning i will relax with some wine and read the PDF ...
Cheers
[reveal=Results]
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my first test results with a simple bet selection (bet against series of 3 EC).
Quite short as it takes long time to chart all the bets.
*Do You think that different bet selections provide more or less favorable charts to bet on?
Would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Cheers
just to add to the thread, the four most common trading signals (from the book).
Also some signals i recognized from your screenshot
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
[attachimg=4]
hope it adds up.
=)
Quote from: albertojonas on Apr 13, 12:46 PM 2012
[reveal=Results]
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[/reveal]
my first test results with a simple bet selection (bet against series of 3 EC).
Quite short as it takes long time to chart all the bets.
*Do You think that different bet selections provide more or less favorable charts to bet on?
Would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Cheers
Hello AJ
Nice results - 34W and 23L. I would love to have them on daily basis :twisted:
Its worth taking a risk with flat betting. Few times you should guess right. Less risk than with Double Dz. Every day i see 1 Dz sleep at least 16 spins. I usually bet on it not to repeat if it hits 20 but few times i rode a winning streaks of 10 bets betting on it to sleep further after it slept like 8 or 9 spins. But its just pure luck i guess and much riskier if you are wrong.
Yesterday i saw 1 Dz hit 10 times in a row. I believe a record is 12 times so it was close call :smile: I started betting after it hit 6 times. I saw also 3 different DS repeat for 15 spins a while earlier. It was just bit out of ordinary day.
Regards
And one more observation on trends. I went through my around 40 sets of 185 live spins from SM casino. I noticed that like 90% of them had noticeable advantage of Red hitting. Streaks of R were also more often. Only few were slightly biased toward Black. Few sets had 60% Red hitting i swear. And in longer streaks there was even bigger difference towards R. Coincidence? Its only 8k spins completely random. I happen to play there.
I guess i start betting on Red from now on O0
Regards
Quote from: albertojonas on Apr 13, 12:46 PM 2012
*Do You think that different bet selections provide more or less favorable charts to bet on?
SO FAR, my experience has been that betting DBL gives shorter bunches of losses, it has its rough patches, but has been superior to betting one side only. Mathematically, all bet selections are equal in the long run in terms of the house edge (Bet Selection = BS? ;D ), but some are less volatile than others, and that's the best you can hope for in my opinion. Of course, the P&F is itself a bet selection, so you could argue that it won't give any advantage either.
Maybe sticking to the principles outlined in the book will give the best results after all, no matter what bet selection you superimpose on it.
When I've added the W/L option to the program I'm going to give my trending system a try.
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=1593.msg14421#msg14421 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=1593.msg14421#msg14421)
Bayes - " SO FAR, my experience has been that betting DBL gives shorter bunches of losses,"
DBL works great. It catches the start of strings of singles and it also catches the start of long streaks of the same thing, like reds. Guess what? The opposite of DBL works great while those two conditions go on vacation. It looks like chaos and it tends to break even. When a thing is not one thing then it must be another thing. It must be possible to target the absence of streaks of repeats or the absence of streaks of singles.
Hi Gizmo,
QuoteGuess what? The opposite of DBL works great while those two conditions go on vacation
And that's exactly what P&F aims to do - catch the current trend whether it be the bet or the "anti" bet.
Trending happens often enough to make P&F a useful tool.
I'm ready to upload the software but you need to download another program first in order to run it.
Go here (link:://:.dosbox.com/download.php?main=1), select the package for your operating system and install the software. Most people will want windows which is at the top of the list.
After installation, you'll need to configure the program so that you can move the mouse easily between the Dosbox window and other windows (the default configuration means that you have to use the keyboard to release the mouse from Dosbox, which is a pain). There's should be a configuration file called dosbox-0.74.conf somewhere on your system which looks something like this:
[attachimg=1]
Open the file with a text editor and modify the line circled in the screenshot. The default is "autolock = true" but you need to change the "true" to "false" as shown.
That's it. You're now ready to put the P&F program in your Dosbox folder and run it.
If you're using Windows you may find this (link:://:.dosbox.com/wiki/Basic_Setup_and_Installation_of_DosBox) useful. You can add lines to the configuration file which saves you having to mount Dosbox manually each time you use it.
I'll upload the program when at least one member has let me know they've installed Dosbox. :thumbsup:
thanks Bayes,,very kind of you to write the program ....i got dos box installed and wanna try how it goes,even i do not like betting even money bets...thanks for the efforts :thumbsup:
nice emulator. there are also frontends like boxer for mac that works like a virtual machine, making configs easier.
Ready to roll. Let the games begin.
Cheers
Do i pick the DEB file for Ubuntu ...
Many thanks ...
QuoteGuess what? The opposite of DBL works great while those two conditions go on vacation
Well i find a similiar solution towards that - i think ...
QuoteAnd that's exactly what P&F aims to do - catch the current trend whether it be the bet or the "anti" bet.
Trending happens often enough to make P&F a useful tool.
Did not read all pages with the PDF - does it include suggestion for triggers or tendency attacks - if so witch page is that - many thanks ...
Quote from: ego on Apr 15, 01:56 PM 2012
Did not read all pages with the PDF - does it include suggestion for triggers or tendency attacks - if so witch page is that - many thanks ...
Dear Ego,
from the pdf starting on page 55, there is a description on trigger formations.
cheers
Ok, when you've installed dosbox you have to 'mount' it before you can run any DOS programs. This means typing the following into the Dosbox console:
mount c [path to Rpnf folder]
c:
These are the steps to install and run the program:
1. Download it and unzip the folder (called Rpnf)
2. Run Dosbox
3. In the Dosbox window, type: 'mount c [path to Rpnf folder]'
4. Press <enter>
5. Type: 'c:'
6. If you now type 'DIR' you should see the Rpnf folder
7. Type 'CD Rpnf'
8. Type 'RPNF.EXE' to run the program.
'[path to Rpnf folder]' depends on your system and where the Rpnf folder is. Also the format will be different depending on whether you have Windows, Mac or Linux. Assuming you download to a folder called 'Documents', on Windows it might be something like 'c:\Documents\Rpnf', on Mac/Linux it will be '/home/user/Documents/Rpnf'
To save mounting the folder every time you want to run the program, you can add these 2 lines to the end of the dosbox configuration file (dosbox-0.74.conf):
mount c [path to Rpnf folder]
c:
If you do this, after starting Dosbox you will only have to move into the Rpnf folder and run the program.
I'll leave it there for now and explain how to use the program in the next post. Any problems installing let me know.
By the way, the formatting seems to be broken on this forum. When I try to make certain parts of the text bold or italic, the whole post gets converted - very annoying!
Quote from: ego on Apr 15, 08:42 AM 2012
Do i pick the DEB file for Ubuntu ...
Many thanks ...
'apt-get install dosbox' or use the Ubuntu software centre. The configuration file is in /home/user/.dosbox :thumbsup:
Sound great . will test to insall it tomorrow ...
Cheers
The software makes possible many analyses.
I have something to expose for discussion:
**************
[attachimg=1]
here we can see how a hoovering state (between series and singles) ends.
So if it ends it will tend to go either way:
1- to the series side
2- to the singles side
in this case however, it ended on the series side.
[attachimg=2]
after the above next outcome we can speculate that it will continue changing.
now if we bet it will form a serie only two states remain present (hoovering then imbalance towards series)
so not the 3 states are present in a row.
[attachimg=3]
it indeed form another serie and know we have a series of series broken by a single.
(to be continued)
any thoughts on this?
Quote from: Bayes on Apr 16, 04:04 AM 2012
Ok, when you've installed dosbox you have to 'mount' it before you can run any DOS programs. This means typing the following into the Dosbox console:
mount c [path to Rpnf folder]
c:
These are the steps to install and run the program:
1. Download it and unzip the folder (called Rpnf)
2. Run Dosbox
3. In the Dosbox window, type: 'mount c [path to Rpnf folder]'
4. Press <enter>
5. Type: 'c:'
6. If you now type 'DIR' you should see the Rpnf folder
7. Type 'CD Rpnf'
8. Type 'RPNF.EXE' to run the program.
'[path to Rpnf folder]' depends on your system and where the Rpnf folder is. Also the format will be different depending on whether you have Windows, Mac or Linux. Assuming you download to a folder called 'Documents', on Windows it might be something like 'c:\Documents\Rpnf', on Mac/Linux it will be '/home/user/Documents/Rpnf'
To save mounting the folder every time you want to run the program, you can add these 2 lines to the end of the dosbox configuration file (dosbox-0.74.conf):
mount c [path to Rpnf folder]
c:
If you do this, after starting Dosbox you will only have to move into the Rpnf folder and run the program.
I'll leave it there for now and explain how to use the program in the next post. Any problems installing let me know.
By the way, the formatting seems to be broken on this forum. When I try to make certain parts of the text bold or italic, the whole post gets converted - very annoying!
Hello Bayes
Thanks for your effort but when i start it i get error message "This system does not support fullscreen mode" and i can not input anything.
Regards
Quote from: albertojonas on Apr 16, 06:30 PM 2012
The software makes possible many analyses.
I have something to expose for discussion:
**************
[attachimg=1]
here we can see how a hoovering state (between series and singles) ends.
So if it ends it will tend to go either way:
1- to the series side
2- to the singles side
in this case however, it ended on the series side.
[attachimg=2]
after the above next outcome we can speculate that it will continue changing.
now if we bet it will form a serie only two states remain present (hoovering then imbalance towards series)
so not the 3 states are present in a row.
[attachimg=3]
it indeed form another serie and know we have a series of series broken by a single.
(to be continued)
any thoughts on this?
LOL i read the first line of your post and i see you understand the different states - very nice.
This is the answer to you question.
1) By observations you will be better of follow the flow
a) This is because noting is due to happen
b) This is because two previos states tends to hovering for 5,10 or 20 times in a row.
2) The hovering state can end with one serie witch make two series to chop or it can end with singels to chop being at least two in a row.
Note: As you self explain it above and base you question upon.
a) I succed flat betting and win 10 to 45 units using 300 trails sessions follow the wheel.
b) Did not succed to get the same results playing aginst the wheel.
c) It should be the same regarding math and probability.
d) You get 30 units draw downs or chaos during 1500 trails
3) Feel free to change or create any entering or exit points as i did not use any.
a) Explination and illustration.
RRR B RRR B RRR BBB Here the hovering state ends with at least two series ...
RRR B RRR B RRR BRB Here the hoveing state ends with at least two singels ...
RRR B RRR B RRR B RRR Here the hovering state continues to hovering ...
b) Now look at the two previos states witch determine how to place your two future bets following the random flow when it unfold.
BBB RRR B RRR
Here you would bet for a serie to follow as the previos state.
If a loss you would bet for the hovering state to continue.
Note that way you follow two state out of three.
If a loss again you have three state with one shoe each.
3) This topic show the results based upon the principal i mention above ...
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9275.0 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9275.0)
4) The algorithm is as follows.
a) You play follow the last and back to back placing two bets.
b) This way you capture three out of four minimum patterns using a cycel of 4 possibilitys:
XXX XXO XOX XOO
The losing pattern of formation is XOO witch can be RBB or BRR.
c) That pattern will connect with the previos one and you will have one "previos state" and one "current state".
Witch is the two state you follow at all times.
Note: This is not a hole grail - it is only one "march" that follow the wheel using three states.
Using this method is the first time i succed to gain 100 units flat betting placing 1000 bets.
That all - no more or less ...
Cheers
-
Some more or further explination about one alternativ for does who is intressted.
How i would out guess or follow the flow using three states and follow the last previos state and the current state
RRRBBRBB
Two states above ...
RRRBB The last previos state
BBRBB The current state
Two series that chop and one hovering state - then i would bet for two series to chop and if a loss i would bet that the last current state would continue to hovering.
If a loss then all three state would have one show each.
RRRBBRBBRBR
If i would have one hoveing state and one series of singels - then you would only have to place one single bet to capture one of the two states - the last previos and current state.
RRBRRRBRBBB
RRBRRR The hovering state
BRB One series of singels state
Now if that single bet would lose you would get one of each state "three" to show once each ...
RRBRRRBRBBBRRR
I use this dozen strategy using even money bets to discover that follow the wheel is much better then play against it.
This is a great way to understand and observe how the random flow unfold using three existing states.
The dozen strategy is that you bet aginst that one dozen will repeat - witch would be the same for the even money states.
Dozen:
1
2 W
1 W
2 W
3 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1
1
2
1 W
2 W
2 L
2
3
3 L
1
1 L
EC:
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
2 W
2
1
2 W
1
2
2
2
2
1
1 W
2
1 W
2
1
1
2
1 L
1 W
1
1
1
2
1 L
2 W
2
2
2
1
1 W
1
2
1 W
1
2
1 L
1 L State repeat
1
2
2
2
1
1 L
1
2
2 L State repeat
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
Using the same method with three state with even money bets is very simple.
You see RRRBB Witch is one state - then you would play twice that a new state will show.
If not the last previos state repeat it self in the same way one dozen would do using the method described above - RRRBBRRBBB ...
Same with the other two states witch would look like this.
RBB = single state RBBRBB = Repeating state
RBRRR = single state RBRRRBRB = Repeating state
This is how i made my observations and any dozen strategy that exist apply using the three existing states for even money distribution.
With that experiment you should notice why it is better to follow then bet aginst the flow.
I just find out that two previos state hit more frequent and show that nothing is due to happen.
Cheers
Quote from: Robeenhuut on Apr 17, 12:25 AM 2012
Hello Bayes
Thanks for your effort but when i start it i get error message "This system does not support fullscreen mode" and i can not input anything.
Regards
Hi RH,
This sounds like a Windows error message, not Dosbox. Have you installed Dosbox? you can't run the program directly from Windows (except MAYBE xp). When you've installed Dosbox, run it, and you should get a window with some text and a prompt at the bottom: Z:\ From there you need to type the 'mount' line as shown in my instructions.
The program is quite intuitive and easy to use, but some explanation of the 'options' area might be necessary, although after a bit of playing around you should see what they are -
[attachimg=1]
When you've fired up the program, just start clicking numbers on the layout to build up the chart (you won't see anything until after 2 or 3 spins). The program automatically plots the charts for RB, OE and HL, the default is RB, but by clicking on OE or HL you can see the charts for these at any time. By clicking on the "BL" boxes under them ("BL" stands for "Before Last"), you can also see the charts for the W/L sequences of betting "before last". The BL under RB gives you the chart for DBL betting RB, the BL under OE gives the chart for DBL betting OE, and the BL under HL gives the chart for betting HL. So you have 6 options here and you can easily switch between charts just by clicking on the boxes.
The row of 3 empty boxes is something for a future version (I haven't decided what it will be yet - maybe a different "box size").
The 2 larger boxes at the bottom are for plotting W/L for any arbitrary bet selection. This works independently of the layout, so you don't have to enter any numbers at all if you don't want to; just click W/L to build up the chart for your bet selection.
KNOWN ISSUES
-----------------
There are a couple of "bugs" in the program. I didn't bother to fix them because in actual play the scenarios which lead to them are extremely unlikely to happen. You'll notice when there is a strong and prolonged deviation which takes the chart up (or down) to the edge of the plot window, the entire chart will adust down (or up). If this were to continue there would come a point when the start of the chart will also hit the edge of the chart area. If this happens (and it probably won't), the new points will overrun the plot area (either off the bottom of the chart or into the layout area above it).
The same thing will happen if you get a strong deviation up which "hits" the top of the chart area and then moves down to hit the bottom of the chart area (or vice-versa). Again, these are almost impossible scenarios from a probability point of view, so I didn't bother to write code to handle them.
-
Bayes i get the software up running with one simpel solution.
First i install dosbox then i download your software.
Then i just un-zip the folder and open it and click on the .exe file and pick "open with" then i just type dosbox and it works great.
My issue do is that i cant find the dosbox config file - do you know witch folder i should look for using Linux.
And many thanks for your awesome explination about the software.
Quote from: ego on Apr 17, 03:01 AM 2012
My issue do is that i can't find the dosbox config file - do you know witch folder i should look for using Linux.
It's in the .dosbox folder. Open your home folder using the file manager, then from the menu choose "View", check the box which says "Show Hidden files". You should see a folder in your home directory called .dosbox (note the "." in front of dosbox).
I find it and run the sofware and it works like clockwork ... very cool - thanks ...
Cheers
Quote from: Bayes on Apr 17, 03:36 AM 2012
It's in the .dosbox folder. Open your home folder using the file manager, then from the menu choose "View", check the box which says "Show Hidden files". You should see a folder in your home directory called .dosbox (note the "." in front of dosbox).
Still the same error message. Loaded dosbox and followed instructions. I have Windows 7.
I think it is a compatibility issue.
regards
Quote from: Robeenhuut on Apr 17, 12:32 PM 2012
Still the same error message. Loaded dosbox and followed instructions. I have Windows 7.
I think it is a compatibility issue.
regards
We was refering to Linux and i don't think Windows 7 is the same thing ...
Cheers
I know nothing about Windows 7, but this may help:
link:://:.dosgames.com/forum/about13511.html (link:://:.dosgames.com/forum/about13511.html)
Just trying to help with getting things running...I suggest for those running windows 7 that they download a frontend from the same page as DosBox.
this one is freeware and it is updated to work with Windows seven.
link:://:.loonies.narod.ru/dosshell.htm (link:://:.loonies.narod.ru/dosshell.htm)
Everything will run smooth. =)
Cheers
Quote from: ego on Apr 17, 02:12 AM 2012
-
Some more or further explination about one alternativ for does who is intressted.
How i would out guess or follow the flow using three states and follow the last previos state and the current state
@Ego
Thank you very much for clarifying your views on this.
I will reply further on this on the thread
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9275.0 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9275.0)
so it may not interfere with this great Point 'n' Figure Strategy.
However, i recon that it applicable to this graphs also. Further analyses will follow comparing the two types of indicators from both strategies. -And that was what triggered it from the start.
Many thanx.
Cheers
Quote from: Bayes on Apr 12, 04:31 AM 2012
1. Another thing to make use of is the grid. It's rare that the chart spans more than 4 squares vertically over 100 or so spins, so you could use this as a factor in your decisions, a little like the Bollinger bands some traders use.
2. ABOUT BS -"but some are less volatile than others, and that's the best you can hope for in my opinion."
1. In the software do you know the ecart each square represents? -It would be a nice option.=)
2. Appart from DBL did u research anymore Bet Selection?(will open a thread on this) >:D
Cheers
Ha, you must have read my mind. ;)
The next version will have a facility to click on any 2 points in the chart (or draw a line between them, I haven't decided yet) and the ecart (z-score) between them will be shown.
No more research on bet selection yet, DBL is still working well.
Hello Bayes.
Is still working BL?
I like your P&F method. I am translating it to EXCEL so I can test it as I use to do.
Would you mind to review it when ready?
Regards,
Ricardo
Quote from: rbayehb on Apr 28, 12:50 PM 2012
Hello Bayes.
Is still working BL?
I like your P&F method. I am translating it to EXCEL so I can test it as I use to do.
Would you mind to review it when ready?
Regards,
Ricardo
Hello / olá
If you don't mind i would love to have it too =)
Cheers
AlbertoJonas, I have been trying to send you a PM, but I can't find the way to attach the file. I don't want to attach it in this message because is raw material...
As soon I find a way, you will have it.
Hello, Ricardo, can you please send me the excel sheet , too.
I have read some P&F infos for the stockmarket, but there are only programs, which are made from stockbrokers and you can`t change the settings ( they are defined for stocks) and are fed with stockinformation.
Thank you in advance
Best regards
kawa
Ok, here it is the excel book, although still row material. The spreadsheet only take into account DBL for H/L. The spins are from Live Dublinbet. You can copy and paste or write any others spins in column C.
I'll appreciate you tell me if you detect any error compared with Bayes's way .
Quote from: rbayehb on Apr 29, 07:49 AM 2012
Ok, here it is the excel book, although still row material. The spreadsheet only take into account DBL for H/L. The spins are from Live Dublinbet. You can copy and paste or write any others spins in column C.
I'll appreciate you tell me if you detect any error compared with Bayes's way .
hi there,
for what i see
you bet dbl on hi / low. that is all right.
Tell, me. The color changing from black to red on balance column what is that?
is red negative?
That's right. Red is negative.
the bet decision is done. but know you have to choose when to attack. Not every spin. Also you have to follow when to bet Decision Before Last or Opposite Before Last - Bet / anti-bet.
Thats what the graph is for, to show the trigger.
I highlighted it on your worksheet:
Blue = DBL
Yellow = OBL
Also Zero is not accounted in the graph...
i post both.
[attachimg=1]
[attach=2]
========
Cheers
AlbertoJonas, Thanks for your comments.
Do you mean that in the 19 spin, yellow 27 is a trigger, so you should star betting on the next spin OBL = L??.
I think bet on 20 spin should be DBL = H. If not so then I am Lost!
I am waiting for your comments.
Regard, Ricardo
Quote from: rbayehb on Apr 29, 12:33 PM 2012
AlbertoJonas, Thanks for your comments.
Do you mean that in the 19 spin, yellow 27 is a trigger, so you should star betting on the next spin OBL = L??.
I think bet on 20 spin should be DBL = H. If not so then I am Lost!
I am waiting for your comments.
Regard, Ricardo
that is an error. That one should be blue, sorry
as for the others, i think they are correct
OK. Thank you Albertojonas for your time.
I must say that on column G is taken into account whether if it is DBL or OBL. I will identify with different colors in both cases.
About the way to bet, I understood that Bayes suggests that as soon you find a trigger then you bet continuously. Else we should build a way.
Now I star working on the 5 options missing: Follow the last for H/L, O/E, R/B and DBL for O/E and R/B, and any option you suggest.
Regards, Ricardo.
Quote from: rbayehb on Apr 29, 01:53 PM 2012
OK. Thank you Albertojonas for your time.
I must say that on column G is taken into account whether if it is DBL or OBL. I will identify with different colors in both cases.
About the way to bet, I understood that Bayes suggests that as soon you find a trigger then you bet continuously. Else we should build a way.
Regards, Ricardo.
Look,
Find a trigger and bet until that trigger is broken i guess. If you read the book posted you will learn about support lines that give you an indication on when to stop the attack.
[attachimg=1]
Maybe Bayes will clarify this.
Cheers
I suggest betting continuously, this way:
Bankroll = 800
Step1 1 2 4
Step2 2 5 11
Step3 5 11 24
Step4 11 24 50
Step5 24 50 110
Step6 50 110 240
Attach is the file, using betting suggested.
Regards, Ricardo.
Quote from: rbayehb on May 01, 10:19 AM 2012
I suggest betting continuously, this way:
Bankroll = 800
Step1 1 2 4
Step2 2 5 11
Step3 5 11 24
Step4 11 24 50
Step5 24 50 110
Step6 50 110 240
Attach is the file, using betting suggested.
Regards, Ricardo.
betting continuously is nothing new. Also you put 240 chips on the table and your ending profit is 140?
Can you add W/L to your workbook?
like:
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
etc
So what is the use you make from the chart?
:-X
if you want to do so,
use a modified martingale +1 on a loss same on a win until in profit.
my two cents.
But still i do not get what use you make from the graph...
I've given this a lot of thought. Seems to me all you're doing is betting for a doubeton to become a tripleton or more.
Am I wrong?
Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 01, 12:16 PM 2012
I've given this a lot of thought. Seems to me all you're doing is betting for a doubeton to become a tripleton or more.
Am I wrong?
regarding bet selection Decision Before Last i guess that is more or less correct. You're trying to catch singles and series of three or more.
One should, by statistics, expect as many singles as series, and as many doubletons than larger series.
In principle it would be of advantage to catch singles and "doubletons aka series of two".- but how to?
However the objective of point & figure charts is another one. Is ridding the trends.
Albertojonas:
Taking into account some of what you say, then I suggest:
Star betting only after 3 continuous losses until you get plus 1
Bankroll =65
Stop after +20
Just 3 steps
Step1 1 2 4
Step2 2 5 11
Step3 5 11 24
Attached is the file with W/L as you said , and also include new betting way suggested.
Albertojonas:
I forgot about the use of the graph.
I think that the excel book, is only for testing, so we can see how behaves any bet system we use.
The graph should be used for playing roulette.
Regards, Ricardo
Quote from: rbayehb on May 01, 12:46 PM 2012
Albertojonas:
I forgot about the use of the graph.
I think that the excel book, is only for testing, so we can see how behaves any bet system we use.
The graph should be used for playing roulette.
Regards, Ricardo
The point of this thread is discussing the use of the graph.
This bet system DBL is old as roulette. but still i attach your excel file with the progression i suggested.
[attach=1]
The bet selection proposed here by Bayes, is DBL indeed but reading the tendency of the results on the graph, so you can try to ride the trends.
More profit for the same amount of units risk...
If you like to filter LW registry, and choose to attack 2 times after 3 consecutive Losses,
here is how it would look like.
This reduces the exposure and the Bankroll needed.
[reveal]
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
[/reveal]
flat bet: +8
Z-Score:1,30 (not amazing)
...For your consideration.
Cheers
As the excel book is just for testing, I will test it with several sessions from Dublinbet (10.000 data), using various betting ways. As soon as this is done, I'll post it.
The results should provide the best profit for units risk.
How did you get the Z-score?
Regards, Ricardo.
Quote from: rbayehb on May 01, 02:09 PM 2012
As the excel book is just for testing, I will test it with several sessions from Dublinbet (10.000 data), using various betting ways. As soon as this is done, I'll post it.
The results should provide the best profit for units risk.
How did you get the Z-score?
Regards, Ricardo.
z= (w - np)/sqrt(np(1 - p))Make some search please...You can find it here on the forum:
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=7350.0 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=7350.0)
and also a small app to calculate it posted on another forum...
link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=13193.msg90906#msg90906 (link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=13193.msg90906#msg90906)
Cheers
Thank you AlbertoJonas, for you reply about the Z-score.
Last time I heard about it was at university, more than 30 years ago.
Regards, Ricardo.
However the objective of point & figure charts is another one. Is ridding the trends.
Then I am missing something. I'll look again.Sam
[/color]
All
I have studied the first chart Bayes put up. All I can see he is doing is waiting for RR or BB to continue the trend. RR becomes RRRRRR BB beomes BBBBB and so on.
Are you doing anything except looking for a run/trend of ECs?
If you get BBRRBBRRBBR and so on you will lose every time you bet for a doubleton to begin a trend.
Any two ECs followed by the opposite is a killer.
Am I still missing something?
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 02, 08:31 AM 2012
All
I have studied the first chart Bayes put up. All I can see he is doing is waiting for RR or BB to continue the trend. RR becomes RRRRRR BB beomes BBBBB and so on.
Are you doing anything except looking for a run/trend of ECs?
If you get BBRRBBRRBBR and so on you will lose every time you bet for a doubleton to begin a trend.
Any two ECs followed by the opposite is a killer.
Am I still missing something?
Sam
I am afraid so. :-\
The bet is not continuous and oscillates between DBL (Decision Before Last) and OBL (Opposite Before Last).
The point is to read the chart and identify tendency patterns like the ones i posted before and will repost here now. Depending on the pattern (up or down) one will bet DBL or OBL.
[attachimg=1]
Note: There is a mirroring error on the last down patterns. Sorry.
I can advise you that the first two patterns each way are the safest. By this i mean that one should "buy" into the trend once identified, for the long run. The get out is indicated by the trend lines or contrary indication - To sell.
I strongly suggest that you take a look at the book (pdf) Bayes posted before.
Cheers.
Aw, geez! I guess I gotta read the pdf.........
and me havin' cataract surgery! (Yep, I'm TwoCat-a-ract-Sam!)
Thanks, Alberto! I'm a little slow sometimes, but I'm nice!
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 02, 10:54 AM 2012
Aw, geez! I guess I gotta read the pdf.........
and me havin' cataract surgery! (Yep, I'm TwoCat-a-ract-Sam!)
Thanks, Alberto! I'm a little slow sometimes, but I'm nice!
Sam
You are not. For me there is no point in participating in a forum if it is not for sharing.
Cheers man.
dosbox-0.74.conf
OK I am trying! I cannot find the above file anywhere. I have searched my whole computer and the internet. Any chance someone could just send me one and tell me where to put it?
Thanks.....
TwoCat
Dosbox.com and go to downloads section
I go to the website and I can download the program, but not the file dosbox-0.74.conf. If it's there I can't find it.
Sam
Its also called Windows batch file. If you downloaded DosBox open folder and look inside.
Check also Bayes reply #37 in this thread. The file could be called autoconfig or config.
Apparently depending on operating system you use there are different names for it.
Regards
FOUND IT
Dosbox. 074 options
Was it's name.
Thanks.
Sam