I will not be so active any more at this forum as there is not much here for me - even if i like to fool around with ideas for fun.
So i will contribute with the following and you have to develop it and do your own home work.
Have Fun.
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Did you believe you know how to play even money bets THINK AGAIN.
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There exist three present states and does has the same probability as 1 in 3 using dozen play.
So what you say - well then i say THINK AGAIN.
Because you are due to place only three single bets to prevent each side to have one show each.
Alternate.
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Firs state is series that chop.
RRR BBB RR BBBB RRR BBBBBBB RRR BBBBB RRR BB
Second state is singles that chop.
R B R B R B R B R B R B R B R B R B R B R B R B R B
The third state is the two above alternating/chop.
RRR B RRRRR B RRR B RRRR B RRRRRR B RRRR B RRR
THINK AGAIN
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Example.
R
R
R
B
R
R
R
You have the hovering state and play it will repeat with one single bet.
R
R
R
B
R
R
R
B
B
It did not repeat and you lost one bet.
Now you place two bets to capture the two previous states.
R
R
R
B
R
R
R
B
B
R
B
R
You lose and you have three present states alternating with one show each.
THINK AGAIN
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You can ask any one simulate three states using even money bets and compare the distribution with any dozen play - the result of does two independent distribution will have the same probability.
Have Fun.
simple Effective ...
Each minum formation of each state is as follows.
RR BB
R B R
B RR
If you have the head around this you will develop a decent method - that is for sure.
hi, can you explain more with examples? I read it 3 times, sorry but din't get it:(
thank you,
biagle
He wants us to figure it out. Thus: THINK AGAIN
No problems, we like puzzles here, I already solved one here this year. LoL
Although Easter has gone, never to late to find golden eggs. After all it will be Easter again next year also LoL LoL
Regards
Drazen
It is not a golden egg - if you observe and test it you will find a decent method that is all.
As usuall from Lucky Strike/Ego/.To me it is clear.
But to others,Ego.You THINK about that.
Then you explain it for me if you have time - i have no clue how to make it more clear.
I try again.
You see two series to chop - one present state.
R
R
R
B
B
Then you play it to repeat - one single bet.
R
R
R
B
B
R
B
B
We lose and now we play that the two previos present states will repeat placing two bets.
R
R
R
B
B
R
B
B
R
B
R
We lose again and have three present states with one show each.
Anyway I presume that decent method for you could have realy interestnig meaning lol
I ll do the homework very sedulous.
Thanks ego
Drazen
Ego, I read some of posts and I like your approach with the states.
what if we calculate the transition matrix from state i to state j, sort of Markov chain?
Pij: Si---->Sj for i different than j and self transition Pii :Si-->Si
its a small matrix to calculate , the state matrix Pn (Xn) = PxP..P (X0)
in attempt to predict states at any trial n .
Quote from: ego on May 31, 01:40 PM 2012
Then you explain it for me if you have time - i have no clue how to make it more clear.
Ego thanks. I get the feeling this method has merit, but i wouldn't be certain until i can understand it enough to test it. Let me try to help you to make this clear. Something is missing i don't know yet what it is. But i am a good student and if i wanted to, i could understand computer programming in machine language. I already understand binary machine language and how to program in assembly...to some extent. If this is not more difficult than computer machine language, i should be able to understand it. Since i
don't understand it, i am questioning your method of explanation. I get the impression that English is not your first language. Even if it was, this would be challenging to explain. Let's try to explain this as thoroughly as if reading a manual on computer programming. I will help you.
Quote from: ego on May 31, 01:40 PM 2012
I try again.
You see two series to chop - one present state.
R
R
R
B
B
Then you play it to repeat - one single bet.
R
R
R
B
B
R
B
B
We lose and now we play that the two previos present states will repeat placing two bets.
Ego, it's not clear from the series of Rs and Bs above where we placed a bet and how we lost it.
Exactly when...on what bet...did we realize the pattern was not going to repeat?
Please use more pointers and dividers like this:
----- Beginning of pattern
R
R
R
B
B
----- End of pattern
B<----- This is where we lost the bet because the pattern is not repeating (or whatever).
What i'm trying to say is there needs to be more step by step detail in these explanations. Please add words between and/or around the patterns you are pointing to so we can see what you mean. Please use dashes ----- pointers <-----> | dividers | <--- like this...and more detailed explanation.
Yes, i understand R = Red, B = Black, and there are three states you've identified.
Please help me better recognize those states, when they show, when they change...so we can better bet either for or against them.
Thanks very much,
~Still
A seasoned player betting on ECs takes notice of patterns to try profitting them.
He/she should know as Ego says:
About series: how many (in a row/chopping)and how long is the tendency.
To have a group at least two series in a row are needed.
Then series are ending with 2, 3, 4, etc components. If the pattern is (stubbornly) showing series of two, then not betting it will grow up to three, at least till this situation changes.
The idea is to follow the tendency.
This state taking into account groups and longitude of series we could call it state A.
When series are coming singles (isolated) mingled with 1 chop (intermitence) that are also singles then we have another state we could call state B.
And last when between series there are 2 or more intermitences (chops) we could consider this as
another state we could call state C.
Then you could have something like this while tracking all three states:
A A B B B B B A A C C C C ? ... state
(4 2) (1 2 1 4 1) (3 3) (1 1 1 1)
2 5 2 4 ... state length
6 9 6 4 .... spins
meaning
R R R R B B R B B R BBBBB R BBB RRR B R B R B?
Is it clearer?
How to profit of this?
Speculating the current pattern flow continue. Trying to catch up consistent patterns.
Too much changing conditions?
Then better stay away while this happens.
This is old stuff that Ego amiably took here to be shared.
Thanks for the thread Ego.
Regards,
Carlos.
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You write very good and well - thanks for the input ...
Welcome. My pleasure.
Regards,
Carlos.
Quote from: carpanta on Jun 01, 02:10 AM 2012
Welcome. My pleasure.
Regards,
Carlos.
Sure - but some missing parts is that the way i show placing only three bets to prevent three states to show each allow you to follow two states in the same way as you would play two dozen witch would be the main algorimth or march to capture during play.
The only thing some one has to add is entering point and exist point to the method above.
Yes i understand your point. One could track all three states movement among them.
If there are 3 states, we could call A, B and C and also there are 3 possible movements (1,2 and 3), last state repeats 1, state behind last one 2, and farthest state behind (oldest one) 3.
ie.
A B A B A
C is missing and you have X 2 2 2
11
12 21
13 31
22
23 32
33
These are the combinations if im not mistaken. Right?
I havent given a thought to the staking plan as I'm not an EC player.
Cheers,
Carlos.
Please, erease this post and my last one. It deserves to be sent to the thrash. No need tracking like that.
Thanks,
Carlos.
To observe how an EC is performing it could be tracked like in the following example.
It belongs to Game 1 (tracking red/black) from the current challenge being played in Steve's other forum.
A B C
2 (black)
2
3 (red)
3 (black)
1
3 (black)
1
6 (black)
4
4 (black)
3
2 (black)
2
2 (black)
1
2 (black)
2
4
3 (black)
4
6 (red)
6
4 (red)
2
2 (red)
3
1
5 (black)
2
2
8 (black)
2?
last two numbers are 7 and 1. i would place my next bet on black following previous red patterns.
In this example just betting that series form group (state A) it would be a kill.
I leave the staking plan for smarter forists.
Cheers,
Carlos.
Quote from: carpanta on Jun 01, 02:20 PM 2012
To observe how an EC is performing it could be tracked like in the following example.
It belongs to Game 1 (tracking red/black) from the current challenge being played in Steve's other forum.
A B C
2 (black)
2
3 (red)
3 (black)
1
3 (black)
1
6 (black)
4
4 (black)
3
2 (black)
2
2 (black)
1
2 (black)
2
4
3 (black)
4
6 (red)
6
4 (red)
2
2 (red)
3
1
5 (black)
2
2
8 (black)
2?
last two numbers are 7 and 1. i would place my next bet on black following previous red patterns.
In this example just betting that series form group (state A) it would be a kill.
I leave the staking plan for smarter forists.
Cheers,
Carlos.
now you almost got one of the strategies i am playing in the competition =)
Quote from: albertojonas on Jun 01, 05:29 PM 2012
now you almost got one of the strategies i am playing in the competition =)
Old Marigny is still around.
Quote from: carpanta on Jun 01, 05:36 PM 2012
Old Marigny is still around.
It will always be as i do not know anything that outperforms it =)