I know that all the brainiacs say that every even chance bet selection method has the same chance of winning or losing as any other even chance bet selection method. Bet selections like penultimate, FTL, OLD, Opposite penultimate, Red only, etc...
Are they right? :question:
Here's the only exception. If you disagree that this is an exception, prove it! >:D
Let's use Red/Black for our explanation:
Main Rule: Bet the color that hit the least in the last 3 spins. That means if we have RBB or BRB or BBR we bet for R to hit. If we have BRR or RBR or RRB we bet for B to hit. (This rule can be expanded to the least out of 5 spins or 7 spins or any odd number of spins)
You ask what if we have RRR or BBB? Do we bet the color that's missing? NO!
In the Main rule we bet for the one that is DUE. In other words Red has hit twice and Black has hit once so Black is due to hit to keep the balance.
In the Minor Rule: Bet for a streak of 3 to continue. The reason is that we're swinging out of balance so we might as well bet for it to keep swinging. We have to have 2 losses with no more than 1 Win between them before we revert back to the Main Rule. If we have 2 wins in a row while in streak mode, we ignore any previous losses. We now have to have 2 losses before we revert back to Main Rule betting.
If we have WLL at this point let's say we have 3 in a row so we bet for the streak to continue and we get WLWL at this point we revert back to Main Rule because we have had 2 losses with no double WW between them. But if we get WLWW from here we ignore the L and must get 2 losses to have to revert back to Main Rule.
So if we have:
Spin Bet W/L
Color Color
B
B
R
R R W
R B L
R R W
B R L 1st loss on streak bet. Don't revert back.
R R W See, B was just an interrupt
R R W Still betting on the streak.
R R W
B R L 1st loss on streak bet. Don't revert back.
B R L 2nd loss on streak bet. Revert back to Main Rule
R R W Do you understand this last bet?
Anytime you lose 3 in a row stop betting until you have a paper win, then resume where you should be if you're following the Main and Minor Rules.
R
B
R
B B W
R R W
R B L
R B L
B R L Stop betting until a W on paper. Minor Rule here
B R L
B R L
R B L
B B W Bet B per Minor Rule. Paper win. Start betting for real
R B L 2nd loss in streak mode. Back to Main Rule betting
B B W
R R W etc...
A piece of cake. Bet progression:
1 1st step in a 3 step capped martingale
2 2nd step
4 3rd step
3 6 1st bet in a 2 step parlay. If win 3 bet, bet the 6. A win causes a reset to 1.
4 8 From here on are 2 step parlays. Only bet the 2nd number if you win the 1st.
5 10
7 14
Or you can use any bet progression you want. Here's another favorite.
1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 12 16
2 3 4 5 6 8 10 14 18 24 32
The above progression is played left to right and top to bottom. It is based on not losing 2 in a row for 11 attempts. So we bet 1 and if we lose we bet the 2 if we win either, we move 1 step to the right.We bet 1 and if we win we don't bet the 3 below it, we move 1 step to the right.We bet the 2 and if we lose we bet the 4 below it and if we win either we move 1 step to the right.We bet the 2nd 2 and if we win we move to the 3 bet etc... We play this progression until we have won 11 times without losing 2 times in a row. If we make it, we will have about 48 units minus the 3 we started with = +45 units. That means we can attempt this 15 times before we lose a 50 unit buy-in.
By the way, you can stop the progression at any point as long as you're up.
GLC
Well, this will take some work.
Thanks, George!
Should we have a "name it" contest?
TCS
Bravo George,
Too bad it couldn't compete for OG,it would get gold medal surely.
Without training there wouldn't be any results,so guys start working
to become a winner.Your trainer is genious.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 07, 02:06 AM 2012
Should we have a "name it" contest?
Hare & Tortoise.
Roogona voodua!
:-D
vundarosa
If you bet for not loose two times after each other, use your best bet selection, and play
1/3 first 2/3 second parlay as long you got stomach. start with nine units, all that you can lose.
11 successfull runs will make a lot of chips.
This was just an introduction to the 1/3; 2/3 betting system.
Read the following link for a good introduction to the concept.
link:://archive.org/stream/montecarloanecdo00bethiala#page/147/mode/1up (link:://archive.org/stream/montecarloanecdo00bethiala#page/147/mode/1up)
I will be expanding on this idea in later posts. It is the nucleus of some powerful bet progressions that bring us to the brink of holy grail territory.
One glimpse I will give you has to do with the power of compounding interest, especially leaving interest earned in the pot so it can earn interest also.
GLC
George
Is the method you described in the first post the same as the one in the book you linked?
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 07, 11:35 AM 2012
George
Is the method you described in the first post the same as the one in the book you linked?
Sam
No! As usual I have mixed multiple ideas in one topic.
The last bet progression I posted is based on the bet method from the book. I based mine on starting with 3 units instead of 9 units. In the book they divide the bets into 3 units and 6 units. So 1/3 on the 1st bet and if that one loses, 2/3 on the second bet. I suggested 1 unit on the 1st bet and 2 units on the second bet.
The bet selection is also different. The author in the book suggests playing for alternating colors or chops. You just play opposite the last spin. As long as you don't get 3 of the same color in a row, you are winning. Once you get 3 of the same color, you lose your stake.
In the book the system is played until you lose twice in a row or reach 202 chips. This is starting with 9 units each attack. You can attempt 23 times before you will lose money on a win. After 23 attempts you will have to increase you starting bet size accordingly to fully recover on 1 win.
This is an interesting way to play if you would like to try to win a quick hit sometime. Winning 11 times without losing 2 times in a row happens regularly, but as we all know, it can "not" happen for a very long time also. A little luck don't hurt, ever.
GLC (I always think of that commercial...."It's a great little car!")
So if I see red, I bet 3 units on Black. If I win, I begin the game anew. If I lose, I bet 6 units on black. If I lose, I'm toast. If I win, I start the game anew.
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 07, 05:54 PM 2012
GLC (I always think of that commercial...."It's a great little car!")
So if I see red, I bet 3 units on Black. If I win, I begin the game anew. If I lose, I bet 6 units on black. If I lose, I'm toast. If I win, I start the game anew.
Sam
Sam, you got it all wrong. Here's a sample game that illustrates a win. We're going to use the authors bet progression starting with 9 units. We split these 9 units into 2 bets. One bet of 1/3 and a second bet of 2/3. Or, 3 and 6. Anytime we lose betting the 1/3 bet, we next bet the 2/3s bet. If either one of these bets wins, we win 3 units. If both of them loses, we lose our 9 units.
The last spin was R so we begin by betting 3 units on B. Let's say a R showed. We lose 3 units so now we have to bet our 2/3 bet and since a R was last color we bet for a chop, or B. B spins so we win. We win 3 units, 6-3=3. We add these 3 units to our pot and we now have 12 units. We're not finished yet. We're going to put the casino's money to work along with ours. We again divide the 12 units into 1/3 and 2/3 or 4 and 8.
Our last spin was B so we bet 4 units on R. R hits and we win 4 more units. Add these to our pot and we have 16 units. We divide 16 into 1/3 and 2/3s and we have 5 and 10 with 1 unit extra. You could bet the 1 unit and make our 2 bets either 6 and 10 or 5 and 11. Let's stay with the author's example and bet 5 units on B since R hit last. Let's say R hits again and we lose. Now we bet our 10 unit bet and B hits which is a win giving us 5 additional chips. 16+5=21 units in our pot.
21 divided by 3 = 7 so our bets are 7 and 14. We bet 7 on R and R spins so we win again. 7+21=28 divided by 3=9 with 1 extra. We next bet 9 on B and R hits so we lose 9. We bet our 2/3s bet of 18 on B and B hits so we win 18-9=+9. 28+9=37. 37 divided by 3=12. We bet 12 on R and it wins so we add 12 to 37 for +49. 49 divided by 3 = 16 with 1 extra. We bet 16 on B but R hits so we lose. We bet our 2/3s bet of 32 and B hits, a win. 49+16=65 divided by 3 = 21. Bet 21 on R and R hits so we win. 65+21 = 86. 86 divided by 3 = 28 with 2 extra. Bet 28 on B and win. 86+28 = 114 divided by 3 = 38. Bet 38 on R and R hits so we win. 114+38 = 152 divided by 3 = 50. Bet 50 on B and R hits so we lose. That means we have to bet our 2/3s bet of 100 on B. Let's say B spins so we win which nets us +50. 152+50 = 202 units.
This is where the author ends his attack. He converted 9 chips into 202 chips with 11 wins. Had he lost 2 times in a row at any point, he would have lost everything he had accumulated plus his 9 original chips. He could have stopped at any point along the way.
Winning 11 times without losing 2 in a row is rare, but 202 divided by 9 = 23 so we can lose our original 9 units 23 times and still come out ahead if we win our 11 times the next time we attack.
I have a friend who plays this on the Pass/Don't Pass in craps and loves it. He plays my progression that starts with 3 units instead of 9 units but uses the same method of betting 1/3 and then 2/3s if needed. He plays until he wins 12 units and then starts over. That's 5 wins without a double loss.
Hope this clears it up for you, Sam.
Things cooling off there in OKC yet?
How you start from three?
Bet one win you have 4 if lost bet 2 win you have 4.
Next bet the same and you will have the one spare, and for all 5
Next bet the same again, you have 2 spare and for all 6.
Now you can bet 2 and 4 and if not lose in 2 spins you have total of 8
Now bet 2 and 4 once more 2 spare and you got total of 10.
Next bet 3 and 6 and one spare and end up with 13 total.
How you can play it other way?
OK, George, I'm clear now.
Thanks for the detailed explanation. I'm sitting in front of BV watching the robot play so I can also test this a bit.
It showered here today--just enough to make you thirsty but the temp dropped to 86 tonight which is a virtual cold front!
I thought I had gone deaf, but it was just a "no-air conditioner" sound!
Sam
Quote from: Ralph on Aug 07, 10:50 PM 2012
How you start from three?
Bet one win you have 4 if lost bet 2 win you have 4.
Next bet the same and you will have the one spare, and for all 5
Next bet the same again, you have 2 spare and for all 6.
Now you can bet 2 and 4 and if not lose in 2 spins you have total of 8
Now bet 2 and 4 once more 2 spare and you got total of 10.
Next bet 3 and 6 and one spare and end up with 13 total.
How you can play it other way?
I understand your perspective. I prefer to add the odd units to one of the 2 bets. If the bet with the extra unit wins, you win an additional unit.
So we have 1 and 2. The 1 wins and now we have 4
Instead of just 1 and 2, we will bet 1 and 3. If we lose the 1 bet but win the 3 bet we will have 6 instead of 5 and can go to 2 and 4 for the next level.
In the long run it may not matter which way you choose to do it.
I notice that it can make more difference when you're playing 1 2 4 or 1 2 4 8.
I have been testing the 1 2 4 8 series with excellent results. I know this can be misleading since you naturally get a lot more wins before hitting a 4 in a row loss.
Here's the progression I use. It's approximate. The main thing when creating a progression is to try to keep the intervals between numbers as equal as possible.
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5
2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10
4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20
8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 23 24 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 36 40
That's 30 attempts to win without losing 4 in a row. If we make it, we will be up by 75 units minus our 15 units to start with for a new of 60 units. Since we start each attack with 15 units, that gives us 4 tries to win 30 times without losing 4 in a row.
I was trying it once, did not lose 4 times. I did not go through all steps, as I thought 50 units was quite good, and risky to add most of this on the table. The bet selection method simple, try to see a trend. Bet black and red. Lost a 3,7 and chicken out with 50 Euro plus.
I think it is a good method, as long you feel it floats, but I recommend at certain situations to not go trough the all. 50 is better than -15.
Hello George
Very nice idea. Original Tiers et Tout like also Boffins bet that rely of not having 2 consecutive losses are tough with any bet selection. I would play it with some win goal though. 50 as Ralph suggested seems to be a good number.
Regards
A bet selection may be needed, I did it again, lost the first four bets. Made a "shorthand" betting 15 for a fast recover. Won this bet, lost four again, won a shorthand bet, lost the first four again, lost the shorthand once, fla tbet 15 until even.
Will try again, but the wheel is not so friendly for now.
G
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I see RRR or BBB, I've lost that game. I see that a lot on BV. I mean a lot!
Sam
Okay folks, I'm not really that interested in your hard luck stories. Don't mean to me callous but we all know that RRR or BBB comes up a lot, and I mean a lot, that is unless you're playing for triples and then they don't come up as much as you'd like.
This is a betting scheme. It can be manipulated a variety of ways with different win targets and different numbers of attacks before you cry uncle.
It's like flat betting one unit of Red only. That darn Black keeps coming up. That's not fair. All I've got to say is, "Duh".
Alright, now that I finished that rant, another suggestion. Let's say we're playing 1 and 2 to start with and we're shooting for winning 21 units. If we have a double loss before we reach our target, we start over with 1 and 2 and if we win 3 units before losing 2 times in a row, we have recovered our loss. Now, since triples come around a lot (by the way, I'm not recommending betting for chops as the best bet selection, use any that you like) you could wait until a triple or longer has stopped and begin betting from that point. Not that I think it will make a lot of difference, but some may think so, reasoning that if you just had a double loss, the chances are less that you'll have another one right away.
I wouldn't recommend playing this long term. Rather set aside a set amount of units like my craps playing friend who sets aside 7 attacks (he's got something going on with the number 7). That's 21 units and gives him 7 chances to win his 21 unit target. Like I said, if he loses 3 units, his goal is to recover those 3 units and then it's just like he just got to the table. He waits until he has a double loss on paper and starts betting again. His bet selection isn't playing for alternating results but I don't think it matters, really.
He doesn't keep track of his overall results, but he wins often enough that he gives it a shot every time he goes to play craps.
Good luck to everyone,
George
If bet selections work, I do not really know. We have all seen it is streaks of chops and streaks of runs.
Old gamblers discussed this much. On run follow on chops try to catch every second.
I still think I have some use of trying to read the past blending into now and future. What ever else we do I think we plan this way, even if the future are less than 50% sure. Just the way we are.
Well, G, maybe I should bet for a streak! If'n I win a streak, I can buy a steak.
S
Okay, I appologize for my "Duh" comment. :'(
Here's my favorite way to play this system. I use the bet selection method I describe in the 1st post. I use the 1 2 4 8 bet progression. That's a 15 unit risk. I play until I reach 75 units on the table which is what you have if you follow my progression posted above.
If I lose 4 times in a row before reaching my win target, I reset back to 1 2 4 8. I play per the progression, but I only play until I recover my 15 units. Once I recover the 15 units I reset all the way back to 1 2 4 8 and start again. If I have time, I wait until I have 4 losses in a row then on the next win, I start playing again. I only play until I reach 75 units on the table or lose 75 units.
That's 5 attempts starting with 15 units.
Test it before you play it for real money, unless you're playing for pennies or dimes, which in this case, isn't real money.
GLC
If your target is 75 and you lose 75 if not win, then it have to win a fraction more than lose, to be better of than a single EC bet on 75 units.
That's I think is the answer a test can give.
Do not under estimate 1 cent chips, some methods will never work using bigger stakes, this methods win 10000 and more, and can lose 100000, the average bet can be $$$.
In land casinos with min bet of 5$ (here about 7$) you have to use a method suited, I think this is one of those.
Clever bet selection GLC. Thanks
Have u tested it flat betting in a LOT of spins?
Quote from: Master_of_pockets on Aug 10, 03:10 PM 2012
Clever bet selection GLC. Thanks
Have u tested it flatbetting in a LOT of spins?
No.
I have found that the only reason to test any of these systems is to determine if you like the way they play and feel. And the speed at which they move in and out of losing and winning.
As you know, we can test a system for thousands of spins and it looks really good but what we didn't know was that those thousands of spins were not perfect in their distribution and actually favored your little system. So you clean out your life savings, head to the casino.
You win for a while and then you have the worst spin sequence you've never seen before for your system and you lose all your money. What you didn't know was that the spins you just experienced were a little worse for your system than a normal distribution of outcomes. So from a little better than normal to a little worse than normal equals disaster.
I don't test a LOT of anything anymore.
Hope this answers your question.
GLC
Yes I think any method can win or lose, testing OK, but why zillions of tests? We know the answer it will fail in such a long run. I look at the method, and I can every time see it can lose.
The simple case: You can never cover all outcome and stay plus in any spin.
You can win, if not every outcome is not covered.
If any outcome is not covered you can lose, many times in a row.
Every outcome will soon or later give a good streak, so you will win a lot, but the opposite is also the case.
Do not underestimate the luck! We tend to think its skill or a good method, it has a part, but the major reason we win is luck.
Quote from: Ralph on Aug 10, 04:59 PM 2012
Yes I think any method can win or lose, testing OK, but why zillions of tests? We know the answer it will fail in such a long run. I look at the method, and I can every time see it can lose.
The simple case: You can never cover all outcome and stay plus in any spin.
You can win, if not every outcome is not covered.
If any outcome is not covered you can lose, many times in a row.
Every outcome will soon or later give a good streak, so you will win a lot, but the opposite is also the case.
Do not underestimate the luck! We tend to think its skill or a good method, it has a part, but the major reason we win is luck.
There it is in a nutshell.
I agree with everything Ralph said completely except I am not against skill and experience contributing to someone who's a long term winner.
I think Flatino's system is like that. It's a pretty static playing method, but he seems to make adjustments at times that the average player won't have enough savvy to make and it can be the difference between winning and losing.
Look how many sessions he has won and posted on this forum and he has testified to winning thousands of units in real play and I believe without any doubt that anyone who can swim a mile or more at the age of 73 won't lie to us. (There's the answer to your yellow question, Sammy).
In my opinion the only reason to adjast a bet selection to the opposite one is the profit/losing ratio.
Thanks for ur reply GLC...but if u aren t making a lot of tests then how are u gona know-find out if a system is good or bad?
I also agree to most of the things that Ralph said.
I forgot to say that if there are no better bet selections than others ,then there also can not be a better hit ratio among diferent bet selections either.
So if the 1st can t happen then the 2nd one can t happen either.
In my research I have seen that there are not better bet selections or worst ones. All are equal and all are behaving in the same manner.
But I always have an open mind in this subject and I hope one day something will be found
This is also the reason why I am still searhing and exploring the game.
I am happy that most of us are doing the same thing.
What we do is rare...there are not a lot of ppl on the planet that are doing what we are doing.(exploring the game)
MOP is right every system designer should set the graph test results for his system at least 3000 spins, It should be enough to see the system had the potential