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Roulette-focused => Main Roulette Board => Topic started by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 09:13 AM 2012

Title: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 09:13 AM 2012
I am not taking the credit for it. It was done on a French forum.
370 million spins and 10 million cycles.


Number of spins: 370000000, so the number of cycles: 10000000

Moyenne des non sortis : 13.42 Average unreleased: 13.42

------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
Card(A) en 37 spins | Effectifs | Probabilité | Card (A) in 37 spins | Staff | Probability |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
0 | 0 | 0.00 % | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
1 | 0 | 0.00 % | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
2 | 0 | 0.00 % | 2 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
3 | 0 | 0.00 % | 3 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
4 | 2 | 0.00 % | 4 | 2 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
5 | 47 | 0.00 % | 5 | 47 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
6 | 662 | 0.01 % | 6 | 662 | 0.01% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
7 | 5719 | 0.06 % | 7 | 5719 | 0.06% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
8 | 33073 | 0.33 % | 8 | 33 073 | 0.33% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
9 | 137749 | 1.38 % | 9 | 137 749 | 1.38% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
10 | 415973 | 4.16 % | 10 | 415 973 | 4.16% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
11 | 941779 | 9.42 % | 11 | 941 779 | 9.42% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
12 | 1593562 | 15.94 % | 12 | 1593562 | 15.94% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
13 | 2045360 | 20.45 % | 13 | 2045360 | 20.45% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
14 | 1989671 | 19.90 % | 14 | 1989671 | 19.90% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
15 | 1481484 | 14.81 % | 15 | 1481484 | 14.81% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
16 | 838199 | 8.38 % | 16 | 838 199 | 8.38% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
17 | 362732 | 3.63 % | 17 | 362 732 | 3.63% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
18 | 118527 | 1.19 % | 18 | 118 527 | 1.19% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
19 | 29210 | 0.29 % | 19 | 29210 | 0.29% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
20 | 5456 | 0.05 % | 20 | 5456 | 0.05% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
21 | 723 | 0.01 % | 21 | 723 | 0.01% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
22 | 68 | 0.00 % | 22 | 68 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
23 | 4 | 0.00 % | 23 | 4 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
24 | 0 | 0.00 % | 24 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
25 | 0 | 0.00 % | 25 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
26 | 0 | 0.00 % | 26 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
27 | 0 | 0.00 % | 27 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
28 | 0 | 0.00 % | 28 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
29 | 0 | 0.00 % | 29 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
30 | 0 | 0.00 % | 30 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
31 | 0 | 0.00 % | 31 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
32 | 0 | 0.00 % | 32 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
33 | 0 | 0.00 % | 33 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
34 | 0 | 0.00 % | 34 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
35 | 0 | 0.00 % | 35 | 0 | 0.00% |
------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- ----------
36 | 0 | 0.00 % | 36 | 0 | 0.00% |

Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: TwoCatSam on Nov 13, 09:37 AM 2012
13 | 2045360 | 20.45 % | 13 | 2045360 | 20.45% |


What does that mean, bob?  That by spin 13, 20.45 percent of the time you have a repeater?  Or do you add all the numbers including spin 13?

Sam
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 09:48 AM 2012
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Nov 13, 09:37 AM 2012
13 | 2045360 | 20.45 % | 13 | 2045360 | 20.45% |


What does that mean, bob?  That by spin 13, 20.45 percent of the time you have a repeater?  Or do you add all the numbers including spin 13?

Sam

sam

It shows that there was 13 numbers missing from a cycle of 37 in 20.45% of the 10 million cycles of 37 spins. (2,045,360 to be precise)
It is not really new information I suppose. But it is a thorough test and it might spark some conversation on the subject.

bob.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: TwoCatSam on Nov 13, 10:03 AM 2012
So if I begin a trot, there is a 20.45% chance that 13 numbers will not show in 37 spins? 
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 10:11 AM 2012
Yep sam, that is correct.

I suppose we can draw some conclusions from it.
Going by those figures means it is highly likely you will never see only 12 different numbers circulating in a series of 37 in your lifetime.
Looking at those figures also suggests it is highly likely that you will always have at least 6 repeats in a group of 37 numbers. (you would have only got less than that in 662 of the 10 million 37 spin cycles)


bob.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 10:32 AM 2012
Information like that has me trying to think of different ways to play the game.
I was reading Winkel's 'Win As Much As You Want' thread last night where he was using a fibonacci betting on the D/S.
How about waiting until there are 18 original numbers with no repeats and then betting through the next 18 spins using Winkel's idea. The idea would then be to wait for another 18 original numbers. I do not know how it would pan out. It was just a fleeting thought but there has to be some clever ways to make use of the information in the above chart.


bob.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: Ralph on Nov 13, 10:47 AM 2012
This is published here before, that time in English.  It is quite easy to calculate without 1000000000 zillion spins.

The first number can not repeate before the second spin.
If it is 18 uniq numbers the chance for a repete is 18/37
If it is 37 uniqe numbers a repeate is 100%
This are the extreme everthing else is smooth in between.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: TwoCatSam on Nov 13, 10:54 AM 2012
Trust me, you will grow old waiting for 18 unique numbers!
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: Ralph on Nov 13, 11:03 AM 2012
Sam!
The numbers are allowed to repeat. I was meaning 18 numbers on the list, they can be repeated, but the list is then longer. If you have 18 numbers in a the marque, and 18 different not counted the repeater as two  it is 18/37 you will have one. The same as an EC.

I have seen 22 numbers before any repeting, such a sessions are hard if you relay on them.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: Turner on Nov 13, 11:04 AM 2012
Ralphs lucky 7, ball24, and most obviously catch the 8 train. All LOTT ideas. I did one here called candidates. Similar to lucky 7.

Buses in uk tend to have a sound about them. Double deck diesel. When I'm getting ready in the morning i hear them pass every 5 or 6 mins.
So why when i walk down to the bus stop do i wait 15 mins, then 3 turn up one after the other?
Knowing LOTT and what it states is of little use when you are sat there at the table for the next 37 spins. A bit like the bus time table
Turner
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 11:15 AM 2012
I would mark it like this if I was looking for a group of original numbers.

xx 1. (the 16 was here)
34 2.
11 3.
6 4.
18 5.
17 6.
21 7.
30 8.
3 9.
13 10.
16 repeat.10.
xx 11. (the 26 was here)
xx 12. (the 31 was here)
14 13.
26 repeat.3.
25 4.
21 5.
34 6.
31 repeat.6.

Doing it this way might not be that much of a chore.
I have a few ideas which I will work on and come back with them.


bob.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: Turner on Nov 13, 11:23 AM 2012
Actually bob please look up the thread "repeat candidate system" that i did. The replies from Robeen are worth looking at. I'm gonna check it out when i get off this fat fingers android phone. Keyboard was designed by a feckin Marmoset
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 11:30 AM 2012
Thank you Turner.

I will take a look at those.


bob.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: Turner on Nov 13, 11:46 AM 2012
Quote from: ugly bob on Nov 13, 11:30 AM 2012
Thank you Turner.

I will take a look at those.


bob.
I notice you are just up the M6 from me (manchester)
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 11:49 AM 2012
sam

I just went through slightly more than a 100 spins which is probably a couple of hours worth in the casino.

The most original numbers I could come up with was two lots of 13.
You are right and finding 18 is not going to happen that often.

xx 1.
34 2.
11 3.
6 4.
18 5.
17 6.
21 7.
30 8.
3 9.
13 10.
16 repeat.10.
xx 11.
xx 12.
14 13.
26 repeat.3.
25 4.
21 5.
34 6.
31 repeat.6.
11 7.
22 8.
x 9.
17 10.
x repeat.2.
28 3.
21 4.
7 5.
24 6.
16 7.
xx 8.
35 9.
10 10.
14 11.
22 12.
xx 13.
9 repeat.12.
30 repeat.7.
18 repeat.3.
19 4.
xx 5.
24 6.
25 7.
10 repeat.3.
20 4.
33 5.
21 6.
24 7.
xx 8.
xx repeat.1.
33 2.
24 3.
14 4.
xx 5.
8 6.
31 7.
23 repeat.7.
11 8.
16 9.
xx repeat.6.
xx repeat.1.
5 2.
35 3.
30 4.
xx 5.
7 6.
x 7.
19 repeat.7.
23 8.
11 repeat.5.
33 6.
20 7.
6 repeat.6.
16 7.
8 8.
xx 9.
xx repeat.1.
17 repeat.1.
19 2.
11 3.
16 4.
x 5.
0 6.
3 7.
7 8.
5 repeat.4.
16 5.
23 6.
9 7.
35 8.
x 9.
34 10.
15 11.
28 12.
x repeat.4.
7 5.
36 6.
6 7.
11 8.
21 9.
30 10.
4 repeat.7.

bob.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: porkeporkeporke on Nov 13, 11:52 AM 2012
If there are several tables in the casino ,you will be surprised that there will be 16/17/18 unique nrs on some tables.(so no repeaters yet,only unique nrs)The start playing the unique nrs for a hit ,use prog if needed or play for more then1 win.this is 1 of the best systems to play and pretty safe ,its slow and not very easy to get the bets out on the table in time without making mistakes(real life casino off course).But possible HG ,maybe even THE HG !!To win at poker one needs patience ,it is the same with roulette.
Kind regards to all.....
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 12:02 PM 2012
Although I did just have a quick glance down and look what I found.

xx 1.
34 2.
11 3.
6 4.
18 5.
17 6.
21 7.
30 8.
3 9.
13 10.
16 repeat.10.
xx 11.
xx 12.
14 13.
26 repeat.3.
25 4.
21 5.
34 6.
31 repeat.6.
11 7.
22 8.
x 9.
17 10.
x repeat.2.
28 3.
21 4.
7 5.
24 6.
16 7.
xx 8.
35 9.
10 10.
14 11.
22 12.
xx 13.
9 repeat.12.
30 repeat.7.
18 repeat.3.
19 4.
xx 5.
24 6.
25 7.
10 repeat.3.
20 4.
33 5.
21 6.
24 7.
xx 8.
xx repeat.1.
33 2.
24 3.
14 4.
xx 5.
8 6.
31 7.
23 repeat.7.
11 8.
16 9.
xx repeat.6.
xx repeat.1.
5 2.
35 3.
30 4.
xx 5.
7 6.
x 7.
19 repeat.7.
23 8.
11 repeat.5.
33 6.
20 7.
6 repeat.6.
16 7.
8 8.
xx 9.
xx repeat.1.
17 repeat.1.
19 2.
11 3.
16 4.
x 5.
0 6.
3 7.
7 8.
5 repeat.4.
16 5.
23 6.
9 7.
35 8.
x 9.
34 10.
15 11.
28 12.
x repeat.4.
7 5.
36 6.
6 7.
11 8.
21 9.
30 10.
4 repeat.7.
34
4
25
10
3
15
27
24
15
31
5
6
15
24
26
7
1
9
27
15
22
19
1 1.
6 2.
12 3.
9 4.
33 5.
3 6.
29 7.
32 8.
7 9.
10 10.
16 11.
28 12.
25 13.
35 14.
17 15.
19 16.
31 17.
13 18.  (hooray)
21 19.
11 20.
14 21.
27 22.
14 repeat.
2 23.
15 24.
11 repeat.
28 repeat.
24 25.
25 repeat.
1 repeat.
14 repeat.
22 26.
36 27.
5 28.
29 repeat.
3 repeat.
11 repeat.
10
27
2
9
13
27
18
3
20
32
32
29
19
3
3
34
9
29
34
23
27
9
35
18
2
7
1
16
8
3
4
29
27
1
22
12
18
35
20
22

There was a group that produced 22 original numbers in this batch of 200 before the first repeat.
It produced 9 repeats after that within the 37 spin cycle. (9 within 15 spins) That is what I was looking for. I just am not sure how often that would replicate itself and if there is an optimal way to take advantage.

bob.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: macduff on Nov 13, 02:30 PM 2012
I too have followed this route for 1000s of spins,18 unique numbers is not that uncommon over say 10,000 spins.To me this is the one stable outcome in roulette you will have repeating numbers within 24 spins.How your bank roll handles betting on 18 numbers is another thing,it is a no no flat betting you need a progression with this.  :'(

Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 13, 04:25 PM 2012
One idea that keeps running through my head is something I should probably call 'reverse roulette'.
First of all I need to have 18 splits and I keep a count of how many there are.

Here are the first 18. I only keep originals in the list of 18 and knock out the furthest back of a repeat.
The ones knocked out will have an x where the split was.

11. 1
12. 2
7. 3
18. 4
x. 5
x. 6
x. 7
9. 8
13. 9
10. 10
5. 11
4. 12
8. 12
3. 12
17. 12
14. 13
15. 14
6. 15

Now I have my list of 18 and there are 15 originals which is unusually high.
I call it reverse roulette because I am looking for the number of splits to decrease.
I always keep the list at 18 splits.

Here is how it continued.



12. 2
7. 3
18. 4
x. 5
x. 6
x. 7
9. 8
13. 9
10. 10
5. 11
4. 12
x. 12
3. 12
17. 12
14. 13
15. 14
6. 15
8. 14

The 8 split came here and so I had to delete the furthest back 8 split. You can see where I put the x.
I also need to knock out the very furthest split which was the 11 completely.
I need to do this to keep the list at 18 splits.
Now the number is down to 14 originals from 15 on the previous spin.
This is where it is going in reverse.
My plan would be to bet the splits when they are going in reverse.
I think I would start from around 12.
15 or 14 is artificially high in my opinion.

After the next spin.



7. 3
18. 4
x. 5
x. 6
x. 7
9. 8
13. 9
x. 10
5. 11
4. 12
x. 12
3. 12
17. 12
14. 13
15. 14
6. 15
8. 14
10. 13

Now it is down to 13 and I deleted the furthest back 10 split.
I also knocked out the very furthest back 12 split completely.
The good thing when this is working well is that you will be putting on less and winning more.
That may be excellent for playing some kind of positive progression.
A lot of players bet more when things are going wrong. I believe that is the opposite of what we should do.

After the next spin.




18. 4
x. 5
x. 6
x. 7
9. 8
13. 9
x. 10
5. 11
4. 12
x. 12
3. 12
17. 12
14. 13
x. 14
6. 15
8. 14
10. 13
15. 12

It is down to 12 now which is probably where it should be on average.
I deleted the furthest back 15 split and also knocked out the very furthest back 7split completely.
Now I can back all these 12 splits and hope it continues in reverse.

After the next spin.


x. 5
x. 6
x. 7
9. 8
13. 9
x. 10
5. 11
4. 12
x. 12
x. 12
17. 12
14. 13
x. 14
6. 15
8. 14
10. 13
15. 12
3. 11

It is now down to 11.
I deleted the furthest back 3 split and also knocked out the very furthest back 18 split completely.
Now I only need to back 11 splits on the next spin.

x. 5
x. 6
x. 7

13. 9
x. 10
5. 11
4. 12
x. 12
x. 12
17. 12
14. 13
x. 14
6. 15
8. 14
10. 13
15. 12
3. 11
18. 11

That spin was a loss because the 18 is a new split.
I can not delete a split this time and that is why the count stays at 11.
I did however knockout the 9 split completely because I need to keep the list to 18.
So what would I do here?
It is a no bet because the reversing has stopped.
I will wait to see what happens next.

x. 5
x. 6
x. 7


x. 10
5. 11
4. 12
x. 12
x. 12
17. 12
x. 13
x. 14
6. 15
8. 14
10. 13
15. 12
3. 11
18. 11
14. 10

The 14 split came. I deleted the furthest back 14 and knocked out the very furthest back 13 split completely.
The count has now gone down to 10 and it is in reverse again.
That puts me back in action and I only need to bet 10 splits on the next spin.

x. 5
x. 6
x. 7


x. 10

4. 12
x. 12
x. 12
17. 12
x. 13
x. 14
6. 15
8. 14
x. 13
15. 12
3. 11
18. 11
14. 10
10. 9.

The 10 split came. I deleted the furthest back 10 and knocked out the very furthest back 5 split completely.
The count is now down to 9.

That pretty much gives you a good idea of things.
One thing that caught my mind with this after putting up that rule of the third chart earlier.
I said that you would be unlikely to see just 12 original numbers in a 37 spin cycle.
So you could argue with this that you would be unlikely to see it go down in reverse much further than 6 splits.
You could use that chart to get a rough idea where the hotspot might be with this.

Play around with it and see what you think.
Shoot with any questions.


bob.
Title: Re: A test based on the Rule Of The Third.
Post by: ugly bob on Nov 14, 08:24 AM 2012

Here are some more numbers for reverse roulette.

8
2
5
14
11
2
16
9
5
8
2
13
17
7
10
5
9
6
2
5
8
3

And here is reverse roulette in action.

x. 1
x. 2
x. 3


x. 5

x. 7
x. 7
x. 7
x. 7

17. 9
7. 10
10. 11
x. 11
9. 11
6. 12 (here are the 18 splits. 12 out of 18 have shown which is average)
2. 11 (win. delete the furthest back 2 and knock out the very furthest back 14)
5. 10 (win. delete the furthest back 5 and knock out the very furthest back 11)
8. 9 (win. delete the furthest back 8 and knock out the very furthest back 16)
3. 9 (lose. knock out the very furthest back 13. This halted the reverse)

bob.