I'm thinking of a new project.
This time I'm going use the streets. And to find the most common movement by statistics.
I need a statistical software, and enter massive list of live spins. (don't know how this will be done, but I figure it out)
If no one is interested in this or willing to help out, I do it myself. (and If this is so, I will not share the results, because of the total unthankfulness and bad attitudes I've seen so far.)
Quote from: ignatus on Jan 17, 08:27 PM 2013
...I will not share the results...
Oh please. Is that a threat or a promise? :xd: :xd: :xd:
I am sure you will get help from someone..
I think this is a good direction you are headed..ie trying to make sense of movements from the actual wheel and not from the casino layout.
And, it seems, there are many others interested in your ideas judging by the number of responses to your posts.
The only problem I had was placing the bets. Not much time to do this .So I have resorted to using the neighbours bets to make it easier and trying to determine the average movements around the wheel from the last spin.
Keep up the good work..
Stay tuned in a few days i will release my current project. A full data roulette tracker & analizer and bet helper.
Good on ya, Orochi.
I downloaded STATA from piratebay. Seems pretty advanced.
Must figure out some kind of formula for this to work
Data entered for each streets (3-4 numbers)
Y will be the movement (0-6), X all 2 street combinations
how to calculate the distance...
X must contain all possible combinations of 2 streets 12*12=144 (?)
Reverse calculation is used, so distance cannot be greater that 6
Street 1=(0,19,15,32)
Street 2=(2,4,21)
etc
Another value must used (Street 1=base value)
1=0
2=1
3=2
4=3
5=4
6=5
12=1
11=2
10=3
9 =4
8=5
7=6
So, if movement in this case from 1-10=3
Base Value must be entered for every street (1-12)
So, there are 144 possible movements =144 Base Values
So, first part is to assign a street value to each number. Example Street 1=(0,19,15,32)
Second part is to calculate the distance between two streets. I this is done by Base Values
Summarize this:
X= Base Values 0-6
Y= Base Value Frequency
Did I get this right??
Hi,
Statistics has a dilemma you can only prove something with a certain confidence. That means if you believe you have an edge of say 9 % in average, you also need to determine a confidence interval (based on the standard deviation) and you also need to assume your outcome is normal distributed around an average value i.e. 9 % in this example. One way to determine the standard deviation is to run your system multiple of times (as I know you have already done that and that data can be used). Excel works great and it's simple!
For example if you run the system for 8 sessions and you got the following results [8,9,12,13,3,2,1,22] profit-% if you have a Swedish version of excel you calculate the average using "medel" and calculate the standard deviation using "STDAV" in this case you will have:
average = 9
Standard deviation = 6.7
In this example we could say that we have "prove" that our result is 9 +/- 6.7
The 1 standard deviation tell us that in 68 % of all trials will be in that interval (2.3% - 15.7) %-profit
I stop here...do not know if you already know all this stuff or if it's seems to complicated?
PS. with edge I mean the edge against the math-probability (according to classical definition). If you bet on 10 numbers in average the probability will be 27 % and if your hit-rate is 36 % your edge will be 9 %-unit
PS. with edge I mean the edge against the math-probability (according to classical definition). If you bet on 10 numbers in average the probability will be 27 % and if your hit-rate is 36 % your edge will be 9 %-unit
Does "bet" mean you did bet or are going to bet?
Shouldn't "will be" be "was"?
Sam
Hi,
It was an example just to clarify what i meant by edge, if ignitus cover 10 numbers on each bet he would expect to win in 27 % of the time in average. If he have a "system" with a hit-rate of 36 % then he could have an edge.
Quote from: ignatus on Jan 18, 05:56 AM 2013
I downloaded STATA from piratebay. Seems pretty advanced.
Care to share if its something that can be used for roulette study?
Piratebay has been shut down for long time.....
link:://thepiratebay.se/ (link:://thepiratebay.se/)
Quote from: Mattias on Jan 18, 10:45 AM 2013
link:://thepiratebay.se/ (link:://thepiratebay.se/)
yes it is blocked and has been for sometime...well certainly from the UK.
works in Sweden.
Hi,
Strange how it could work in Sweden if it's not allowed in UK?
Quote from: Blood Angel on Jan 18, 10:46 AM 2013
yes it is blocked and has been for sometime...well certainly from the UK.
Use this then it works. :)
Regards Timo
STATA is the best statistical software there is. But it's pretty advanced.
I haven't figure out how to use it yet. Only imported a list of spins (only thing I could do)... :S
link:://thepiratebay.se/torrent/6982310/Stata_12_(Windows__all_versions)_-_FULL_INSTALL (link:://thepiratebay.se/torrent/6982310/Stata_12_(Windows__all_versions)_-_FULL_INSTALL)
Quote from: Mattias on Jan 18, 11:36 AM 2013
Hi,
Strange how it could work in Sweden if it's not allowed in UK?
Also in Finland some operators block sides like piratebay but not all of them. Quite strange.
Regards Timo
Ok, so it's the Internet Service Provider decision due to ethics, not the law I assume!
Thank you to you all for your help.
I have the Zip file. But it's 273 MB
Figure out a way I'll send it. (with serials etc)
Still haven't figured out how to use this software. :S You must be a rocket scientist to use it! ;D
Since I can't figure out how STATA works, I had to to do some manual statistics. It has already been established that the 2-step movement (doublestreets) is most common, I only to explored 2 movements: (by the way. I forgot about step 5!) More testing is needed!
This is playing with 2 streets: (6 numbers) I used a list of live spins
3-steps
LLLLLLWWLWLWLLLLWLLWLLWLLWLLLWLWLLLLLLLLWLLLWLLLWLLWWLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLW = 18 wins
4-steps
wLLLLLWLLWLWLLWLLLLLLLLWLLWLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW = 11 wins
From this short test, the 3-step movement is the winner. I'm impressed by these results. Playing with 6 numbers is better in every way. It's a little tricky doing statistics/playing this live. Because sometime it can take time to locate the numbers etc. (see pic)
How it's done: From the number calculate the 2 streets on each side in a 3 step distance.
Example: 14 hits (street 9)= Street 6 & 12 is bet. (That will not be actual streets on the real carpet, but 6 numbers)
Reverse calculation is used (wheel is round): 7 hits (street 11)= Street 2 & 8 is bet
Zero belongs to street 1.
Would be great if someone could help out doing some more statistics/playing this (for fun, live) OR if someone can figure out how to use a statistical program and enter lots of spins etc. Right now i can only do manual testing
When the most hit street-distance has been established (on the wheel, not ordinary carpet) through testing/statistics, I'll do a new tracker for this.
The more help I get, the quicker the end result.
Quote from: Orochi on Jan 17, 09:38 PM 2013
Stay tuned in a few days i will release my current project. A full data roulette tracker & analizer and bet helper.
Thanks :) Yes, that could be useful!
Quote from: ignatus on Jan 18, 09:44 PM 2013
Thanks :) Yes, that could be useful!
Check the topic, i just release the software, make a request to add the function u desire.
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=11918.0 (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=11918.0)
Cheers
Progress, I came this far. (see pic) it's 2439 spins. The spin are sorted out: each street hit. (Wheel street, that is)
Now, how the f**k to calculate distance of the streets??
I need a command in STATA to compare two data in a sequence...
Seems like no one is interested in helping out. That's too bad.
I did 500 spins, enter the distance for each spin. These are my results.
I don't know why I'm sharing this with you? I'm so f*king sad of your total lack of interest in what I'm doing. I doubt I will share anymore results.
I'm working alone. (since no one is willing to help) You know how many hours and days I spent working on this?
Quote from: ignatus on Jan 19, 10:00 PM 2013
I did 500 spins, enter the distance for each spin. These are my results.
I don't know why I'm sharing this with you? I'm so f*king sad of your total lack of interest in what I'm doing. I doubt I will share anymore results.
I'm working alone. (since no one is willing to help) You know how many hours and days I spent working on this?
That is a very small sample.
Analize a benchmark of 130k spins (for 3 numbers bet). Calculate the standard deviation, and u get the results.
Quote from: Orochi on Jan 19, 10:45 PM 2013
That is a very small sample.
Analize a benchmark of 130k spins (for 3 numbers bet). Calculate the standard deviation, and u get the results.
Yes, I know. I
must figure out how to do this using a statistical software. I'm using STATA. I'm on a statistical forum now and asked question how to do it. It's not 3 numbers, it's 6 (one street on each side)
I just need a command or function (in STATA) to compare two variables in a sequence, then everything will be done.
Like this:
Sequence1: street1 1
Sequence2: street7 1
== TRUE than I can calculate the distance. (see pic)
Or
Sequence1: street1 1
Sequence2: street7 0
== FALSE
Street1 Street3
0 0
1 0 <--- This is what i'm looking for (sequence1)
0 1 <--- (sequence2)
0 0
0 0
1 0 <--- How to compare these data?
0 1 <--- In a matrix like this??
I'm sorry for being upset. I hope this works out, and I get the help I need. OR figure this out somehow. :-\
would be very nice to go and work on your own so not spaming any more and when you fail you know who you can blame...good luck :thumbsup:
Data can be analyzed in a lot different ways, you can always use the data amount you have (but with less data the uncertainty will increase i.e a wider confidence interval). The problem using statistics is that you can never be 100 % sure! That's way we use confidence interval - to say how sure data will be in certain interval. In statistics 1 Sigma (standard deviation) corresponds to 68 % certainty, 2 Sigma 95 % and 3 Sigma to 99 % etc.. you can never be 100 % sure!
The picture where you showed the distribution of the hit-frekvency, it looks like sector 3 is the most probable sector to hit, can we say that it's the most probable sector - No!
I will "cheat" a little and assuming that the outcom is Poisson-distributed then we can say that sector [3,4,5] have a significantly higher hit-frekvency with a confidence of 68 % or sector [1,2,3,4,5] have a significantly higher hit-frekvency with a confidence of 95 %.
If you would play on flat betting on sector [1,2,3,4,5] you will have an edge of ~2%-unit with a confidens of 95 %, but there is a chance of 5 % that it's not true!
You're wasting your time Ignatus. You'll always get a bad streak that will wipe you out. Give roulette up and concentrate on puzzles or backgammon or something
We can all learn more (hopefully) about statistics, but one sad thing is nothing can be proved by 100 %.
Quote from: buffalowizard on Jan 20, 06:00 AM 2013
You're wasting your time Ignatus. You'll always get a bad streak that will wipe you out. Give roulette up and concentrate on puzzles or backgammon or something
Really? If you seen how I've played "wheel movements" you know there is a stoploss after 3 losses in a row and waiting for a trigger. Playing this way long losing streaks can be avoided. This system is playing with 6 numbers. Much better
Don't know if you understand what I am talking about: but I have two possible improvements for you!
1) Now you are using predefined sectors, by choosing sectors a bit different you could achieve better results, by looking at the data, such a sector could be somewhere in between sector [2,3]!
2) You can try to correlate the outcome due to spin direction of the ball, it could also increase the hit-rate (of course - only if there is such a correlation)!
These are my results, 1200 spins.
Since all distances seems pretty equal (1-5) only way to get an edge is to pick 3 distances.
It depends on how many splits can be placed for different bet selections. (to reduce units placed) I'll look into this
SO, Now I've prepared a new tracker for this.
This will be betting on distance 3,4,5. That is an 18 number bet, but I reduced the bet to 9-14 units using all possible streets, corners and splits. (corners and streets will be 2 unit bets)
This is my results (from my statistics)
You see the win/lose rate playing this: (1200 live spins) I never saw a losing streak longer than 6. Using stoploss and +1 progression this would be very interesting to play!
distance 3,4,5 is bet (That's wins)
Distance
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