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Roulette-focused => Bet selection => Topic started by: rolf-harris on Jan 22, 11:10 AM 2013

Title: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 22, 11:10 AM 2013
I recently followed a series of live spins on Supercasino and, flat betting, I got approximately a 50_50 result ratio of wins and losses.
So what ,you may say....
But when you take into account that all the wins paid out at over 2-1.... ..Wow!
Here is my selection ...1 unit placed on 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th position  on the wheel from the last number spun  in both directions.
So that's a ten unit bet...if win pays 36  units......against 10 on a loss..
I was wondering if the 50-50 win - lose is down to luck  or if there is something inherent in live wheel spins ( a-la-Ignatus ) that favour these positions.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: Smoczoor on Jan 22, 12:35 PM 2013
Flat bet is only way to play roulette for me. Your system looks interesting! Luck or not - it needs more testing. Thx for sharing. I will keep an eye on it.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rouletteKEY on Jan 22, 12:36 PM 2013
against how many spins?

I generally only play a few numbers (3-5) and had a run where I seemed to miss every number by one pocket...it seemed that way anyhow

When looking at wheel sectors had I played the sector to repeat and the sectors on either side...    sectors for me are 4 numbers with the exception of the 0 and 00 sectors that only include the numbers on either side of them...so 10 sectors in total...8 sectors with 4 numbers each and 2 sectors with three numbers each....so I would have been betting 11-12 numbers each spin.  I didn't play it...this is all hindsight.

In 46 spins I would have had exactly 50% with 23 wins.  Don't know how many wheel positions but it would have been in your range more than likely.   So I looked back at another session real quick...73 spins...15 would have won...another session 19 out of 84.  Another 31 out of 100.   Overall on not alot of spins 88 wins out of 303 for 29% vs an expected result of roughly 12/38 on my American wheel of 31.5%

Based on 5 minutes of analysis...probably just a lucky run...but testing on a decent number of spins will help to determine the real answer for you and your wheel.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 22, 03:04 PM 2013
 Only a few  times at around 25 spins per try.
I can see Im gonna have to test over a lot more spins. Will try and figure out an excel sheet to help me with this, I am sure there are some actual spins on the forum that I can test.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rayhd63 on Jan 22, 04:46 PM 2013
Hi Rolf,

so when 0 hits you bet 29,7,28,12,35 and 19,4,21,2,25

and you play after every spin ?

If nobody comes up with a tracker, I'm going to give it a try.

Ray
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 22, 06:25 PM 2013
Just looked at layout,
If 0 spins the bets are 3,35,12,28,7 and 15, 19, 4, 21, 2.
European wheel.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 22, 06:28 PM 2013
Sorry Ray.yes. After every spin.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 22, 06:41 PM 2013
I must be cracking up, I miscounted. But if its in the vicinity I think it will still work. Only one away. Please let me know your results.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: stringbeanpc on Jan 22, 11:58 PM 2013
Rolf,

Please post results from some of your sessions.

number of spins played
number of wins
number of losses
total units won/lost

Regards,
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 23, 12:25 AM 2013
Ive stopped relying on this system after having a losing ( virtual ) session.
I am easily put-off when this happens and start looking for ways to improve it or abandon it altogether.
No real cash has been lost however but I feel I am on the right lines and will download some spins and see if I can make better sense of it all when I have time.
The theory I have is that certain areas of the wheel will more likely hit than others according to the dealer (who I think plays a major role in this ) and maybe other factors not known to me.
Its just a matter of finding where those elusive sectors are in relation to the last number spun.
Once Ive done that then Ive cracked it.
Its no use going by the layout. The results come from the wheel and its this, I feel, is the direction to go in. . . . . .
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: TwoCatSam on Jan 23, 12:40 AM 2013
Its no use going by the layout.

R-H

I think you are right there.

Sam
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: Smoczoor on Jan 23, 03:46 PM 2013
This method looks like voodoo :o Easy to RX so i made fast test. Coding this i was sure that method will fall but...
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 23, 11:34 PM 2013
I am not up to speed with RX.
Were the numbers from live spins or computer generated....?
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: Smoczoor on Jan 24, 05:29 AM 2013
Numbers from live roulette (BETFAIR live session 16.01.2013)
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rayhd63 on Jan 24, 11:03 AM 2013
QuoteEasy to RX so i made fast test. Coding this I was sure that method will fall but...

could you share your RX file !!! So we all could test with our Spins.

That would be great  :thumbsup:

Ray
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: stringbeanpc on Jan 24, 11:14 AM 2013
Quote from: Smoczoor on Jan 23, 03:46 PM 2013
This method looks like voodoo :o Easy to RX so i made fast test. Coding this i was sure that method will fall but...

If you care to post it, I would appreciate a copy of your RX script as well.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: Smoczoor on Jan 24, 02:18 PM 2013
Quotecould you share your RX file !!! So we all could test with our Spins.

Yes of course! Here you are:

System "Layout Neightbours by rolf-harris"

{coded by Smoczoor for rouletteforum.cc community}

method "main"
begin

     if number 1 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [24, 5, 10, 23, 8, 31, 9, 22, 18, 29]
      end

      if number 2 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [19, 15, 32, 0, 26, 34, 6, 27, 13, 36]
      end

       if number 3 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [28, 7, 29, 18, 22, 32, 15, 19, 4, 21]
      end

      if number 4 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [32, 0, 26, 3, 35, 25, 17, 34, 6, 27]
      end


       if number 5 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [8, 30, 11, 36, 13, 33, 1, 20, 14, 31]
      end

      if number 6 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on  List [25, 2, 21, 4, 19, 36, 11, 30, 8, 23]
      end


       if number 7 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [22, 9, 31, 14, 20, 35, 3, 26, 0, 32]
      end

      if number 8 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [36, 13, 27, 6, 34, 5, 24, 16, 33, 1]
      end


       if number 9 has hit each time
        begin
     put 1 unit on List [20, 1, 33, 16, 24, 29, 7, 28, 12, 35]
      end

      if number 10 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [30, 11, 36, 13, 27, 16, 33, 1, 20, 14]
      end

      if number 11 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [27, 6, 34, 17, 25, 23, 10, 5, 24, 16]
      end


        if number 12 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [29, 18, 22, 9, 31, 26, 0, 32, 15, 19]
      end

      if number 13 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on  List [34, 17, 25, 2, 21, 30, 8, 23, 10, 5]
      end

       if number 14 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [33, 16, 24, 5, 10, 22, 18, 29, 7, 28]
      end

      if number 15 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [26, 3, 35, 12, 28, 21, 2, 25, 17, 34]
      end

      if number 16 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [10, 23, 8, 30, 11, 20, 14, 31, 9, 22]
      end

      if number 17 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on  List [21, 4, 19, 15, 32, 27, 13, 36, 11, 30]
      end

      if number 18 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [31, 14, 20, 1, 33, 28, 12, 35, 3, 26]
      end

      if number 19 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [0, 26, 3, 35, 12, 2, 25, 17, 34, 6]
      end

      if number 20 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [16, 24, 5, 10, 23, 9, 22, 18, 29, 7]
      end

      if number 21 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [15, 32, 0, 26, 3, 17, 34, 6, 27, 13]
      end

     if number 22 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [14, 20, 1, 33, 16, 7, 28, 12, 35, 3]
      end

      if number 23 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [11, 36, 13, 27, 6, 24, 16, 33, 1, 20]
      end

      if number 24 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [23, 8, 30, 11, 36, 1, 20, 14, 31, 9]
      end

      if number 25 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on  List [4, 19, 15, 32, 0, 6, 27, 13, 36, 11]
      end

      if number 26 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [12, 28, 7, 29, 18, 15, 19, 4, 21, 2]
      end

      if number 27 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on  List [17, 25, 2, 21, 4, 11, 30, 8, 23, 10]
      end

      if number 28 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [18, 22, 9, 31, 14, 3, 26, 0, 32, 15]
      end

      if number 29 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [9, 31, 14, 20, 1, 12, 35, 3, 26, 0]
      end

      if number 30 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [13, 27, 6, 34, 17, 10, 5, 24, 16, 33]
      end

      if number 31 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [1, 33, 16, 24, 5, 18, 29, 7, 28, 12]
      end

        if number 32 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [3, 35, 12, 28, 7, 4, 21, 2, 25, 17]
      end

      if number 33 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [5, 10, 23, 8, 30, 14, 31, 9, 22, 18]
      end

      if number 34 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on  List [2, 21, 4, 19, 15, 13, 36, 11, 30, 8]
      end

      if number 35 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [7, 29, 18, 22, 9, 0, 32, 15, 19, 4]
      end

      if number 36 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [6, 34, 17, 25, 2, 8, 23, 10, 5, 24]
      end

      if number 0 has hit each time
       begin
     put 1 unit on List [35, 12, 28, 7, 29, 19, 4, 21, 2, 25]
      end
end
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: stringbeanpc on Jan 24, 06:37 PM 2013
Quote from: rolf-harris on Jan 22, 06:25 PM 2013
Just looked at layout,
If 0 spins the bets are 3,35,12,28,7 and 15, 19, 4, 21, 2.
European wheel.

Here is a RX script according to the above specs. Just change the extention from txt to dgt

Edit: Forgot to mention that this script will work on both American & European wheels

Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: stringbeanpc on Jan 24, 06:40 PM 2013
And here are the results from my above RX script for yesterdays spielbank weisbaden tables

They seem to be mixed results, however I realize this is not a comprehensive test.



Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: Normy2000 on Jan 24, 07:14 PM 2013
@stringbeanpc

Congrats!  :thumbsup:
That's what i call a very nice script, all done in 40 lines!   :)
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: stringbeanpc on Jan 24, 09:19 PM 2013
Quote from: Normy2000 on Jan 24, 07:14 PM 2013
@stringbeanpc

Congrats!  :thumbsup:
That's what i call a very nice script, all done in 40 lines!   :)

Thank you Nomy2000. I have been a developer for many years, just learning my way around RX coding.
Maybe some of my cobol-ogist experience showed up in the code. LOL
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 24, 11:29 PM 2013
Thanks for all your efforts guys...looking at the charts it seems when there is a sudden turn of fortune, up or down, it seems to continue for a while..
I am willing to wager this is when there is a change of dealer...maybe, when a losing run develops and it is spotted early enough then, instead of the 10 bets around the last number spun, it may be possible to detect from observation what amount of offset to employ so as to manoeuvre them to a more favourable area of the wheel.
I am not familiar with RX but could it be programmed so that after, say, six losses or whatever looks suitable, then a variable is added to move bets to the opposite side of the wheel, for instance, to try and get back to winning ways.
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: stringbeanpc on Jan 24, 11:54 PM 2013
Quote from: rolf-harris on Jan 24, 11:29 PM 2013
Thanks for all your efforts guys...looking at the charts it seems when there is a sudden turn of fortune, up or down, it seems to continue for a while..

Your welcome. Remember that this was NOT a comprehensive test, only 4 tables from yesterday. More study should be done in my opinion.

Quote from: rolf-harris on Jan 24, 11:29 PM 2013
I am willing to wager this is when there is a change of dealer...maybe, when a losing run develops and it is spotted early enough then, instead of the 10 bets around the last number spun, it may be possible to detect from observation what amount of offset to employ so as to manoeuvre them to a more favourable area of the wheel.

I am not familiar with RX but could it be programmed so that after, say, six losses or whatever looks suitable, then a variable is added to move bets to the opposite side of the wheel, for instance, to try and get back to winning ways.

Yes, the change you suggest could be added.
But I have some other tasks to attend to, so anyone who knows RX can feel free to modify and repost the script
Title: Re: Was I just lucky, or what ?
Post by: rolf-harris on Jan 25, 10:22 PM 2013
Anyway, I found the answer to my original post...
I must have been just lucky.
I download trial of RX and ran system over 4000 spins that I got off the forum and ended up at minus 1000 units.
So, unless the losing runs can be halted somehow by, say, stop after X amount of lost spins...restart after X amount virtual wins....or bet opposite side of wheel after X amount of losses..... etc. etc.
As it is now its no good.
I am not giving up on it completely because it gets some nice winning runs but I will have to do all my experimenting on the new implementations manually till I can get my head round RX programing ( why don't they accept Mastercard ?)