Hi All
Just wondered if anyone as the stats to say how many spins it takes before a dozen sleeps for at least 20 spins?
Planning to do a positive progression on the first two dozens so need to know how often this event takes place.
Any info will be much appreciated.
Harri44
The odds are (2/3)^20, which is 1,048,576/3,486,784,401. Give or take, 3/10,000 spins or 1 every 3500 spins.
Thanks for the info Colbster!
Harri44
1 in 300 spins, not 3500. How long is a piece of string. I see it happen regularly and no where near 1 in 3500 spins.
the maths is not so simple.
The math is exactly that easy - anecdotal evidence is not something I want to be basing a money-management system on. Your odds are (2/3)^x where x is how many spins in a row you want to avoid the other third.
link:://:.freewebs.com/turbogenius/whatsthelongest.htm (link:://:.freewebs.com/turbogenius/whatsthelongest.htm)
It can of course happen any time, but if you test it many times you will find you will have to spin about 3000 times.
So building a method using progressions is demanding.
Taken from the link above in HP's post -
This covers 1 Million spins.
Assume the spin per hour at a casino is around 40 -
This data covers 25,000 hours of wheel spins.
1,041 days / or / 3 years roughly.
If you like sleepers, simply "reverse engineer" your systems to these numbers.
Suppose the longest progression you could make on a straight up bet is
200 spins - then you know from the above data to begin the progression
at spin 266 without the number showing.
Same for all other locations.
This will mean very very long qualification time, massive amounts of
data recording without playing and then the risk that the extremes
above will be broken during your playing session.
(not likely but anything is possible)
Hope the info is of some use.
Cheers
Ed[/font]
Why dosnt someone make a bot to do exactly this? Playing RNG - I realise its not ideal - the bot should be able to spin very quickly if the sites roulette speed is maxed out, may take a few hours before a betting opportunity comes up but if its automatic and thru the night I don't think it would matter.
.
Random doesnt have a timetable like a bus . Even buses go missing and then 3 turn up at once
I would count spins, not casino days. If a progression lose all previous winnings, it does not matter how long it takes.
If we play to stay in the game, we just bet as low as possible.
There is not a 100% safe way. Bolder play may win more.
The best chances to win using outside bets are EC with positive bold progressions, and equal odds table.
It is 96% chance to get six wins in a row in 200 spins. 50% getting seven, 32% getting eighth and 15% getting nine.
A bolder positive progression will catch up near 100% of the time.
The problem is Murphy's Law! You test it and the results are: each 3.000 spins more than 20 spins sleep. Then you go to casino and after first spin the dozen or column sleeps for 26 spins! You bet progression you wish you never started and pray to god for help which doesn't come. After that loss you swear you will never bet progression on sleepers.
Gambling outside probabilities has to do with Fortune/Misfortune. In which category do you belong? Is your father in law' name Murphy? Remember: Devil never sleeps! You can bet on it!
Cheers Hermes >:D
"Random doesn't have a timetable like a bus . Even buses go missing and then 3 turn up at once
A smart thinking!
Hermes :thumbsup:
That of which Turner so eloquently speaks is called variance or dispersion. Again, forget the house edge. BV is a fair non-zero wheel with no edge. But there is dispersion all over hell and half of Texas.
We must learn to defeat dispersion!! Into the foxholes, men! The battle rages!
Sam
I really like a sleeping dozen to show but with stops so I don't go deep!
Quote from: Tomla021 on Apr 30, 12:00 AM 2013
I really like a sleeping dozen to show but with stops so I don't go deep!
Yes everything in moderation...stop-losses are an important tool
When I play sleepers I usually play hot numbers the same time as insurance......; This way if sleepers
decides to remain sleeping, it is less boring and am able to make some winnings with hot repeating
numbers.....; I often play like this at BM casinos or live wheel, not rng and the results are good.