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I am not to good at math so can someone please humor me and show/tell me how to do the following...


I am trying to find out how to convert the percentage I came up with into saying it will happen "1 in x amount of times". I do not know how to do this can someone please help.


Relevant info:


I know that the formula for streak length is (24/38)^x
so if x=38 (number of spins)
then the percentage for a non repeat is 2.60765729e-8 multiplied by 100 and that is
0.00000260765%


Now my question is how do I write this as in 38 spins a chance of a non repeat will be "1 IN x TIMES"??

Also how can I find that out as well for 1million + spins..


Thanks in advance for helping out the math challenged people lol

anyone???

EZ

Get this question to a gentleman named Bayes.  He is a math person if ever there was one.

Sam

Quote from: Big EZ on May 28, 08:12 PM 2013

I know that the formula for streak length is (24/38)^x

Formula for streak length or non repeating in x spins is acutally different depending for how many numbers or which "section" you want do calcualte.

You didn't said how many numbers, but from your formula I presume you mean on double dozens? (24/38)??

Theoreticaly there is no limit how many spins some event can sleep as we know that bell curve has no limits. (never touches x axis)

But there is simple formula which can give you this answer.

If you want to know how many spins something can go without repeat you should use this formula:

N= Z² (1-p)/p

N= number of spins you are looking for
p= probability of an event you are looking for
z= z score-it is a measure of standard deviation which tells you how much event deviates from normal distribution (average)

Ok so for american wheel probability for two dozens in a row is 24/38 x 24/38= 0.3988

And as you are interested how many spins two dozens can go without a repeat, for the z score in upper formula you should take maximum z score which is about 4.0-4.5 from Bayses computer simulations.

So lets take 4.3 as a middle value and we get

N=4.3²  x (1-0.3988) / 0.3988

N= 18.49 x (1-0.3988) / 0.3988

N= (18.49 X 0.6012) / 0.3988

N= 11.116 / 0.3988

N= 27.87

So we can say 28 spins is the number double dozen can go without repeat.

Best

Drazen

Drazen
like the formula, but how many in reality does it go. Longest i've seen take on rng is 34,often

Well it is a bit suspicious if you see 34 in a row often.. Maybe you should change RNG?  :lol:

Cheers

sorry drazen
the 34 spins is for single dozen. my apologies must read the article better