My thoughts for today...
1. Randomness seeks IMBALANCE more than balance (20 reds and 1 black in 21 spins, next bet on RED)
2. Use Lanky progression
3. GUT Strategy
4. Seeking a good 4 numbers strategy (inside bets)
5. Watching W/L history
Variance is the beast to kill. Can this beast be killed or is it immortal?
Alex
Random doesnt seek anything. It is just cause and effect. Understanding the cause and effect is what everyone needs to focus on.
Variance can be "tamed" if you have sufficient accuracy of predictions.
No matter how clever your idea, or system, or VB or Maths or AP you are left with the same thing every time
Will it do it this time? or will it continue against it for a bit longer.
SD 3 Regress To Mean, betting repeats, dominant diamonds, what ever.
Just my view
Quote from: probasah on Mar 26, 04:46 PM 2014
My thoughts for today...
1. Randomness seeks IMBALANCE more than balance (20 reds and 1 black in 21 spins, next bet on RED)
Quite true, but it's those imbalances which even out!
If you mean "uncertainty", yes it is everywhere. It is always a possibility that I'll be hit by a car today, but perhaps a remote possibility.
With roulette, you can have a strong advantage with a roulette computer, but there is still always the chance I will lose, at least over the short term. Anything can happen short term.
This "uncertainty" puts a lot of people off advantage play. Instead they seek some perfectly mechanical system and that is BLACK AND WHITE. I know, because I was one of these people for many years.
Life is never black and white. Neither is winning roulette or making money in any way.
But that doesnt mean there arent easy and viable enough methods to win. This is what advantage play is.
Really I try to help people understand this, but most players still look at that black and white way of winning. And they waste their life on it. If they understood the basic facts about winning at any casino game, they would understand WHY they are wasting their time, and WHY their methods simply cannot work.
I'm not speaking about anyone directly. There just appears to be two classes of people on roulette forums. It is people that understand what can work and why, and those that dont understand yet or perhaps keep looking for the black and white method.
It depends on what your goals are.
1. If you want to make money: stick with what works. Many people have already done the work for you. Many methods will work under reasonable conditions.
2. If you want to make money with some black and white system: chances are you will waste your time, and end up losing money
3. If you do it for fun with a remote hope of "cracking the holy grail": then have fun but when you understand WHY a method wont work, you'll probably feel silly for giving the casino your hard earned money. I mean if you are going to have fun while trying to crack the "code", THEN TRY SOMETHING NEW. Most people go in circles.
Speaking of "certainty", most people are "certain" to lose. Sure you can have short term luck. I'm talking about long term loss from random betting. And thats basically what "systems" do - random betting, because there is no justified foundation, or link between the "bet selection" and "winning numbers". ie they dont increase accuracy of predictions.
Garnabby you need to forget about the balance thing. consider this....
There are two players at a table. They both wait until there are 10 reds in a row.
Player 1 says: "Ooh, red is on a streak. I'll bet red next".
Player 2 says: "Ooh, black must be due. I'll bet black next."
Who is more likely to win?
They are just as likely as each other.
Here's proof. Test a billion spins, and look for instances where there are 10 reds in a row. Then look at how many times red or black spins next. Try repeating the test as many times as you like.
What you will find is red and black have an equal chance of spinning next.
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Now consider doing the same thing, but in a situation where over 10,000 spins, there are 4000 reds and 6000 blacks. Let’s say you bet red until there is a “more balanced†distribution.....
So you bet for thousands of time on red. Does this at all change the fact that the probability of red is exactly the same as black? NO, NOT EVEN REMOTELY.
------------------
Now consider if you added a betting progression in the mix. You are not betting to cover losses. All you are doing is making different sized bets on completely separate events.
------------------
This is the reality of playing roulette. And I waste many hours explaining it. Why? Only to help people so they don’t waste time. It is sincerely not for my gain. Anyway, anyone reading can make p their own mind about whether or not these are facts about roulette you can bypass.
link:://:.roulettephysics.com/why-most-players-lose/ (link:://:.roulettephysics.com/why-most-players-lose/)
*SOMEWHERE* in REPEATS.........is the answer, believe me.
I/we need VERY STRICT rules of play AND not betting many numbers, 2-3.
Ken
Ken, yes history does indeed repeat itself. I agree with you on that.
Ken...its not just the repeats themselves...the repeats are indications of imbalance short term...and there are other things to look for during those short term periods
Quote from: MrJ on Mar 27, 12:50 AM 2014
*SOMEWHERE* in REPEATS.........is the answer, believe me.
I/we need VERY STRICT rules of play AND not betting many numbers, 2-3.
Ken
Repeats are a good focal point but not enough in themselves.
To tame the ‘variance beast’ and take the hill, you need to get one foot in front of repeats by including some form of preemptive strike, thereby anticipating future repeats. Together they stand a chance of taming the beast, sometimes.
At times the ‘variance beast’ will be too strong even for this double team. That’s when you need to get creative and bring some flanking strategy into the action.
As for 2 or 3 numbers max, forget it. It might be a good place to start, but more often than not you will need more troops to take the hill and tame the beast.
Thats Skakus...fresh back from a metaphor training course.. ;D
Quote from: Steve on Mar 27, 01:07 AM 2014
Ken, yes history does indeed repeat itself. I agree with you on that.
I think that Ken's on the "right" track. I mean that in the sense of accomplishing something other than by the same old mundane brute force.
Eventually, in the next 100 years, there will be technical ways to profitably (, compared to using such technology in more meaningful ways,) bother with roulette.
But answers and popularity are the catch of death. How often have we heard rich old persons lament that the best time of their lives was before they became rich? And the ones who are still poor exclaim that the next K-Mart short cut to riches remains a pension cheque away. (Even if the old geezers hit a jackpot, not only do they not recoup all those short cuts, but they can no longer really enjoy any of it.)
True heroes follow different paths.
Quote from: Turner on Mar 27, 08:28 AM 2014
Thats Skakus...fresh back from a metaphor training course.. ;D
suka*S (backwards) is the (head) instructor. O0
Quote from: GARNabby on Mar 27, 01:18 PM 2014
How often have we heard rich old persons lament that the best time of their lives was before they became rich?
I miss the hungry years, The once upon a time
The lovely long ago, We didn't have a dime
Neil Sedaka
Testing one, two, three. Is there an echo in here, here, here? Anybody?
I bet that Victor misses the "good old times" when there were 100's of posters instead of a bunch of sanatorial echos. :wink:
Quote from: probasah on Mar 26, 04:46 PM 2014
Variance is the beast to kill. Can this beast be killed or is it immortal?
Alex
It is immortal. You cannot kill it; you can only tame it, or pacify it for a while.
But I don't like your chances only using 4 or less numbers. At that rate it really is a beast.
What good is a lot of responses when they are all wrong?
Quote from: Steve on Mar 27, 10:13 PM 2014
What good is a lot of responses when they are all wrong?
Steve's right
Why ask anything when all the replies will be wrong?
In fact, why join the forum at all if no one knows what they're talking about?
You should unregister and forward any further roulette queries directly to Steve. He might even give you his private telephone number.
Quote from: Steve on Mar 27, 10:13 PM 2014
What good is a lot of responses when they are all wrong?
Wow...and to think Ive sat here and listened to all your paranoid " big brother is watching you" BS....and said nothing.
Priceless.
My last post.
Quote from: Skakus on Mar 27, 08:36 PM 2014
It is immortal. You cannot kill it; you can only tame it, or pacify it for a while.
But I don't like your chances only using 4 or less numbers. At that rate it really is a beast.
Hi, Skakus!
I really like some of your strategies(vodoo bonuses included!). You say that using 4 numbers is a wrong approach. How many numbers would you consider to be safer as a betsellection?
Regards,
Alex
Quote from: Steve on Mar 27, 10:13 PM 2014
What good is a lot of responses when they are all wrong?
Hi Steve!
Thank you for your replies. I think that through sharing of ideas, something worth while might come around. I am just trying to make some order in my thoughts (which are a mess right now), and focus on the things that i THINK can lead to a better approach to playing roulette.
I have putted to the test alot of systems (tens maybe hundreds) that lead to the same negative expectation.
I found it confusing and exciting in the same time that only a few bunch people went on the other side of success, while the rest of the players (99.99999% ) fail.
I don`t plan to make a living out of roulette. For me its just a fun thing to pass time, and help others to the best of my abilities with free trackers. (excel). when i have time that is:)
Regards, and thanks for passing by.
Alex
Was I wrong, Turner? The forums are full of correct advice and holy grails? Is that why gambling forums are full of people winning millions?
Im not trying to offend you or anyone. But it is a fact that 99% of the systems or concepts have heen tried before, and have no value. Im sorry this offends you. It is not a personal comment. For years I wasted time too.
And when someone knowledgable, who is actually earning a living from roulette, explains the truth about winning roulette, it is usually pushed aside, and the endless circle of nothing new continues. Im talking about almost every gambling forum, but some are far worse, and the productivity is no better than a forum riddled with spam.
I encourage open discussion about everything. I never stifle discussions. But I try to explain to people why an approach wont work. Why wouldnt I share experience? You dont need to appreciate it, but others may. I strongly advise people to understand why certain approaches fail, and encourage them to learn, and try NEW approaches. Maybe you disagree with my logic. Maybe the same thing should be tried forever.
Understand Im not saying advantage play is the best method. Im saying it is the best method we currently know of. But even I still research for new and better ways. Im a member and roulette fan here too, so you can understand my frustration with virtually nothing NEW being tried, and when people still dont understand why their system is failing.
Also many people play roulette just for fun, and dont care about profit. Still the knowledgable players will advise them, but professional AP methods may not be their thing, which is fine. Again I dont stifle discussions. But many people are serious about winning roulette and financial freedom. Whatever the goals of members here, it should not be difficult for both sides to co-exist. People can play their own ways. Whoever wins, is right. Or better yet, whoever is happy, is right.
The truth is not always popular. Actually its usually unpopular. This is why some of the most productive forums are quiet, including forums of people dont personally like. And if I didnt care about truth, I'd encourage everyone to waste their time going in circles. Because it would mean more posts, and more profit for me. But I put truth first. And even if this is unpopular, it wont change what I know is right. Anyone can choose their focus - truth, or fiction.
Also not to offend, but to an educated person that read your big brother comment, Im not the one with the problem..
probash, no problem if you only want to play for fun, martingales or whatever. If it ever becomes a business venture, I suggest focus on what the casinos themselves know works. They do know their own business. you can also find news stories of players winning millions with things like computers. nonsense? some people think so, without actually knowing. you will even find some people calling scam methods effective, and the effective methods scams. anyway im happy to give free advice to anyone willing to listen.
Quote from: Steve on Mar 28, 06:51 AM 2014
probash, no problem if you only want to play for fun, martingales or whatever. If it ever becomes a business venture, I suggest focus on what the casinos themselves know works. They do know their own business. you can also find news stories of players winning millions with things like computers. nonsense? some people think so, without actually knowing. anyway im happy to give free advice to anyone willing to listen.
Hi Steve!
Good day!
Thanks for your replies. I did not want to start a quarrel. Believe me, that is the last of my intention. I do appreciate your point of view and i am with you on this one. It can be frustrating over time to see the same systems over and over again with nothing new on the horizon. Every system i had placed in the excel has failed. Every single one of them. It makes me more and more motivated. I love challenges, as i am only dealing with virtual money.
Maybe you are right, and maybe AP is our best shot to win the roulette. All i know is that i don`t have the 15k in my pockets to buy a roulette computer or a mint system. That is why i still orbit in the search of a better method.
I do agree with you that TRUTH is the most important thing to hold on to in life. And That being Happy is more important than being right.
For this i hope that everyone will find their Holy Grail in life.
Regards,
Alex
I'm waiting for Ausguy to comment, should be worth the wait.
Quote from: probasah on Mar 28, 05:51 AM 2014
Hi, Skakus!
...You say that using 4 numbers is a wrong approach. How many numbers would you consider to be safer as a betsellection?
Regards,
Alex
Hi probasah,
No one can tell you the absolute sweet spot, because there isn't one. Like variance, it's a shape shifter. I can say that not even using a roulette computer will bring you much joy if you only bet a few numbers. Although it is constantly improving, predictive software does suffer a margin of error and normally requires betting a sizeable arc on the number ring, perhaps up to 15 numbers or so.
One good thing about betting less numbers is you can get lucky early and strike some good payouts, but the larger variance will get you in the end.
My own suggestion for straight up play is to start with a few numbers hoping for a hit, but adding more numbers and/or chips to current numbers (like repeats) every now and then until you gain any profit or reach a max bet of 25 numbers (2/3 of the number ring).
More often than not, the growing spread will encompass the variance and you will win. But those times when it doesn't and you lose, it will be somewhat due to the ball landing on your numbers with less chips, but mainly due to the ball landing on the 12 uncovered numbers (1/3 of the number ring). I call them, the dirty dozen.
These 12 numbers that defeated your previous attempt should be included from the outset of your immediate next attempt.
So you relent to the unruly variance and include the main culprits, the dirty dozen, in your next round of betting.
Deeply consider what I’ve suggested here and you will go far in the quest to beat this game regardless of what the experts think.
Cheers and good luck.
There has been a lot of recent discussion on repeat systems and I have attached one of my trackers that should help with your understanding of them.
One of the questions regarding repeat numbers is when should you start betting them? After they repeat for the first time, the second time, third time, etc. This tracker allows you to select how many times you want a number to repeat before you start betting.
Another question is how long do you keep betting a number after it repeats. Do you bet them for 4 spins, 8 spins, 12, spins, 36 spins etc. This tracker allows you to select how many spins you wish to bet.
The tracker will bet up to 10 numbers.
You can select your Profit Target and Stop Loss.
You can also select your progression divisor which is based on Lanky's Divisor. Since the tracker is betting straight numbers which have odds of 35 to 1, the divisor is 35. This means you should be in profit on the first win. You can adjust this divisor up or down to suit your needs.
The bot is equipped with excel's RNG numbers. Simply press Function Key F9 to get a new set of spins. You can also import your own numbers.
For those of you with our Excelbot, you can download the bot version of this sheet at our sister forum:
link:://betforum.cc/excelbot/ (link:://betforum.cc/excelbot/)
Enjoy
Nick
Quote from: Nickmsi on Mar 28, 02:47 PM 2014
There has been a lot of recent discussion on repeat systems and I have attached one of my trackers that should help with your understanding of them.
One of the questions regarding repeat numbers is when should you start betting them? After they repeat for the first time, the second time, third time, etc. This tracker allows you to select how many times you want a number to repeat before you start betting.
Another question is how long do you keep betting a number after it repeats. Do you bet them for 4 spins, 8 spins, 12, spins, 36 spins etc. This tracker allows you to select how many spins you wish to bet.
The tracker will bet up to 10 numbers.
You can select your Profit Target and Stop Loss.
You can also select your progression divisor which is based on Lanky's Divisor. Since the tracker is betting straight numbers which have odds of 35 to 1, the divisor is 35. This means you should be in profit on the first win. You can adjust this divisor up or down to suit your needs.
The bot is equipped with excel's RNG numbers. Simply press Function Key F9 to get a new set of spins. You can also import your own numbers.
For those of you with our Excelbot, you can download the bot version of this sheet at our sister forum:
link:://betforum.cc/excelbot/ (link:://betforum.cc/excelbot/)
Enjoy
Nick
Thanks, Nick!
What a generous gesture from your side.
Regards,
Alex
You are welcome, Alex.
Always glad to help.
Nick
What was that?...
Oh, you're welcome. LOL.
1. Know how to read randomness.
2. Find out what is going on in the strongest form.
3. Get actual data on the current effectiveness state.
4. Only place a bet while currently in the winning state.
a. any loss is proof that you are not in the winning state any longer.
5. Use large enough bets that two or three net wins over any losses is enough.
6. Leave the casino with your success.
It takes experience with every step.
It comes down to being in a win streak to place bets, and to quit while you are ahead.