Can some one give a very brief explanation on the law of the third. Thanks
Quote from: nottophammer on Nov 21, 02:12 PM 2014
Can some one give a very brief explanation on the law of the third. Thanks
relating to roulette, Normal distribution denotes that when 37 numbers are randomly produced 37 times, they will follow the classic distribution curve or bell curve. The most probable result in the belle curve shows that 1/3 of the numbers wont show and 2/3 will show,
Generally, 24 numbers will show and 13 wont over 37 spins, which shows that numbers have to repeat to give that result.
19 hit and 18 not hit is much less probable.
The probability of 13 hitting and 24 not hitting is incredibly low because its well to the left of the belle curve.
This seems ok to understand because you would see lots of numbers hitting 3 and 4 times, and that seems wrong but the other end of the belle curve is also least probable, i.e 32 hitting and 5 not....which is far right of the belle curve
So, 2 numbers hitting 18 times each and 35 not hitting seems ridiculous without consulting bell curves, but 35 numbers hitting and 2 not is equally impossible.
heres a nice visual
HIT NOT HIT
20 17 21 1622 1523 1424 1325 1226 1127 10 28 9
so would we be able to say 12 spins is 1/3rd, if so, what is the law of the third,for the first 1/3rd
Quote from: nottophammer on Nov 21, 03:38 PM 2014
so would we be able to say 12 spins is 1/3rd, if so, what is the law of the third,for the first 1/3rd
well.....you could say there will be 2 repeats, but not really, because 12 unique numbers are common, and that ends up somewhere in my "nice visual" above after 37 spins. 12 uniques isnt an indication this is going to be a rare distribution.
for example, its less use on splits (18) less on streets (12)
Here's an example of Law of the Third.
You have a street that just hit. In theory the
one number that just hit should repeat within 36 spins.
Another number on the street should hit once within
36 spins and one number on the street will not hit at all.
Yet the street has hit three times within 36 spins (which is the average).
Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on Nov 21, 04:08 PM 2014
Here's an example of Law of the Third.
You have a street that just hit. In theory the
one number that just hit should repeat within 36 spins.
Another number on the street should hit once within
36 spins and one number on the street will not hit at all.
Yet the street has hit three times within 36 spins (which is the average).
Proofy
It would be nice if normal distribution knew what the carpet looked like :xd: ....but I get your point. :thumbsup:
yes Turner be nice indeed, thanks for the replies
Quote from: nottophammer on Nov 21, 04:22 PM 2014
yes Turner be nice indeed, thanks for the replies
One last thing....Ive read everything "Number Six" wrote on LOTT over in VLS.
A very interesting read. I respect him greatly, and trust that if anyone could find a use for it, he could.....but looking at his later posts, he had dropped it....going more into Maths and prob
its so random within its self, i.e. which numbers will repeat? how many times?.... that I am not sure what use it is.
It always reveals its self after the event. Hindsight is a wonderful thing isnt it?
Quote from: Turner on Nov 21, 04:42 PM 2014
One last thing....Ive read everything "Number Six" wrote on LOTT over in VLS.
A very interesting read. I respect him greatly, and trust that if anyone could find a use for it, he could.....but looking at his later posts, he had dropped it....going more into Maths and prob
its so random within its self, i.e. which numbers will repeat? how many times?.... that I am not sure what use it is.
It always reveals its self after the event. Hindsight is a wonderful thing isnt it?
Is LOTT independent of Maths and probabilities?
No! But it might not even be a Law.
Decades ago I read much about in the the German roulette books,
where it it called "Zwei Drittel Gesetz".
Noone has ever seen all 37 numbers appear in 37 spins.
I remember that right after exactly "drei Rotationen" (3 x 37 spins)
IN AVERAGE TWO NUMBERS MUST STILL SLEEP.
Who called it "The Suggestion of the Third"?
There is a suggestion or supposition that things will fly according to Hoyle, but--unlike the law of gravity--it is not dependable.
If anything, it is a law of logic.
Sam
Quote from: Dane on Nov 22, 05:53 AM 2014
Is LOTT independent of Maths and probabilities?
No! But it might not even be a Law.
Decades ago I read much about in the the German roulette books,
where it it called "Zwei Drittel Gesetz".
Noone has ever seen all 37 numbers appear in 37 spins.
I remember that right after exactly "drei Rotationen" (3 x 37 spins)
IN AVERAGE TWO NUMBERS MUST STILL SLEEP.
Its not a law at all. The fact that 2/3 show and 1/3 dont more often is just because its the mean in a normal distribution. The results can be variant and even if this highly probable outcome occurs, it doesnt suggest what will happen at a number level
The Belle curve shows that most of the results will be within 1SD from mean and nearly all will be within 2SD. Some of these outcomes are far from 2/3 vs 1/3 but may happen
Everything is HAS and not WILL
This number HAS hit
This number HAS hit more than once
This number HAS not shown
You cant replace HAS with WILL in any of these cases.
It is gambler's fallacy. I've seen "Law of the Third" occur at times
during the course of a session. It doesn't mean I (or anyone else can exploit it.)
It would be the Grail if we knew if a dozen hit
back-to-back that one of the other dozens would always hit next spin.