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Roulette-focused => Main Roulette Board => Topic started by: Tamino on Apr 29, 05:02 PM 2015

Title: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on Apr 29, 05:02 PM 2015
Diminishing probability , as any repeated pattern of chance events continue, its reversal becomes progressibly imminent.

Worthwhile strategy  to be considered for EC.


Very  satisfied with the results.





. For recreational  purposes  only. Play at your own risk.

Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: RouletteGhost on Apr 29, 10:14 PM 2015
Your thread title is a lame attempt at the most thread views in forum HISTORY

Lol
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: TwoCatSam on Apr 29, 10:35 PM 2015
Still, I agree with him.  That is, if I understood what I think he said.
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: iggiv on Apr 29, 10:48 PM 2015
Roulette ghost instead of trying to pick on titles try to ask him what he means, it may be worth more than "LOL".
He has lots of experience

Quote from: RouletteGhost on Apr 29, 10:14 PM 2015
Your thread title is a lame attempt at the most thread views in forum HISTORY

Lol
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: GLC on Apr 30, 12:16 AM 2015
RouletteGhost,  I can't imagine being so disrespectful to Tamino.  His posts are always well thought out and come from years of live play experience.  They're never off the cuff.

ND, have you discovered a way to capitalize on this concept that you would like to share with us?

Cheers,

GLC
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: RouletteGhost on Apr 30, 05:58 AM 2015
I wasnt being disrespectful. I was joking around. Which isnt easy to tell i guess.

We must be able to joke :(

Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on Apr 30, 11:07 AM 2015
Understanding the   first  sentence of my thread    in conjunction   with reference  to EC   is what counts.

Experienced players don`t jump to conclusions,  It  requires   long time   experience  at B & M casinos

How about this: 35 years  in casinos 2 continents , 3 different countries  ( Incl. US jurisdictions  AC, LV, Laughlin , Foxwoods, Mohegan Sun, and New York)


Solid systems  only and no  martingale  progressions either.

Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on Apr 30, 06:36 PM 2015
iminishing probability , as any repeated pattern of chance events continue, its reversal becomes progressibly imminent.

Roulette Ghost:

What is YOUR interpretation of that sentence ?

Let`s have it.
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: RouletteGhost on Apr 30, 06:52 PM 2015
i give up

my statement was meant in a joking manner

i was kidding

surely smart guys like yourselves would have picked up on that

i wasnt being condescending or disrespectful

Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: bckwrds on Apr 30, 07:11 PM 2015
Quote from: Tamino on Apr 29, 05:02 PM 2015
Diminishing probability , as any repeated pattern of chance events continue, its reversal becomes progressibly imminent.

Worthwhile strategy  to be considered for EC.


Very  satisfied with the results.


I think i have heard this before. ive observed ECs, spasificly red black as its most noticeable switch patterns. are you saying for example, a run of 7 red, you would start betting on a run of black, perhaps with (i cant recall the progression name) the progression where you flatbet, but parley all winnings, going for that string of 7 black.

or do you mean by reversal, a return to mean, the statistical habit numbers have of trying to find balance. in which case my example would leave your BR quite a bit lighter than it was.


. For recreational  purposes  only. Play at your own risk.
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: TwoCatSam on May 01, 08:22 AM 2015
Does "Up and Pull" come into the equation?
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: TwoCatSam on May 01, 08:54 AM 2015
Let's consider a paradox or conundrum or however you care to style it...............

Number six comes.  What are the chances the next spin will produce a six?  Exactly the same.  But something inside you says it is very, very unlikely a six will come again.  What if six does comes again?  You're at the "no way in hell" point.  No way in hell will six hit three in a row.  But it could.

But is it likely?  Here we get into possible vs probable.  It is possible--because nothing prevents it--that the six could hit ten times in a row but is is probable?  No, it is not.

So we must weight this paradox constantly if we're going to play that game.

Huh?

Sam
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: bckwrds on May 01, 09:38 AM 2015
Yep its like a weight, the further the numbers deviate from the mean, the heavier they get, pulling them back. But this is the question (if my analogy has anything to do with reality) can the weight be enough that it flips to the other side.
Tamino is this what your getting at? Mr.Cat, what do you rekon? A string of 20red, probability of such a thing occurring is low, very low. So when it snaps back, should we be looking for it overshooting the mark, looking for a string of black perhaps rather than the more expected chop? Ive seen it happen.

As for the gamblers fallacy, yep thats always going to be a monkey on our back i just wonder if its been made to look bigger than it is.
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on May 01, 11:34 AM 2015
The  long term  odds for  an EC :


1-1  3-1  7-1  15-1    31-1   63-1 etc double plus 1.

Betting BLACK against  Red at the   4th spin he odds at Red winning are 31=1 whereas Black is  1-1 .
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: RouletteGhost on May 01, 12:37 PM 2015
Quote from: Tamino on May 01, 11:34 AM 2015
The  long term  odds for  an EC :


1-1  3-1  7-1  15-1    31-1   63-1 etc double plus 1.

Betting BLACK against  Red at the   4th spin he odds at Red winning are 31=1 whereas Black is  1-1 .

What you are saying is after 3 reds in a row the next spin will be red 1 out of 15 times? Trying to understand. Thanks

And 6 reds in a row will happen 1 out of 63 times?
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on May 01, 12:50 PM 2015
The  odds are  that the REDS are less likely repeatimg themselves.


At this point we are NOT discusssing a system .
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: TwoCatSam on May 01, 03:16 PM 2015
Notice he did not say you would get a winner on the next spin, just that the streak is less likely to continue. 

There is a system based on this.

Sam
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: ddarko on May 01, 07:19 PM 2015
Quote from: Tamino on May 01, 12:50 PM 2015
The  odds are  that the REDS are less likely repeatimg themselves.


At this point we are NOT discusssing a system .

I assume this is what Tamino means :-

link:s://archive.org/details/montecarloanecdo00bethiala

Page 112

O0
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: caspian on Aug 22, 11:47 AM 2016
Quote from: Tamino on May 01, 12:50 PM 2015
The  odds are  that the REDS are less likely repeating themselves.


At this point we are NOT discussing a system .

That's completely not true....

Lots of people have trouble with this. If you bet before any spins on six in a row, the chance of winning is 1/2^6=1/64. But having seen the five reds, as you say, the chances are 1/2 each on red and black for the next spin. It is also true for any specific series of six spins, at the start the chance of that series is 1/64. If you were to bet on RBBRRB, that is also 1/64. Now that you have seen five reds, there are only two series of six that are possible: RRRRRR and RRRRRB. They each started out 1/64 and are now each 1/2.

Hope this helps
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: psimoes on Aug 24, 01:47 PM 2016
Quote from: caspian on Aug 22, 11:47 AM 2016Lots of people have trouble with this.

Most will never get it. Loan sharks love them.
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: MumboJumbo on Aug 25, 07:48 AM 2016
Quote from: Tamino on Apr 29, 05:02 PM 2015

. For recreational  purposes  only. Play at your own risk.

What to play here?
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on Aug 25, 11:47 AM 2016
Reply to Mumbojumbo




See  opening post  of this  topic as well  as  post # 13 they should  tell you what you can  do  with this   outstanding  idea .


I am under no obligation to offer  full  systems or methods for sharing.




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Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on Aug 25, 02:16 PM 2016
psinoiesm


I do not need your  help.  I have made it my business to  stay away from advice  given by math boyzz.
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: psimoes on Aug 25, 04:39 PM 2016
menotypo,

I didn´t offer any help. Read it again.
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on Aug 25, 05:14 PM 2016
Sorry for the mix up. .
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: caspian on Aug 26, 05:26 AM 2016
Quote from: Tamino on Aug 25, 02:16 PM 2016
psinoiesm


I do not need your  help.  I have made it my business to  stay away from advice  given by math boyzz.


Then you should refrain from posting factually inaccurate information on a public forum until which time you learnt and understood basic probability theory.

Thanks.
Title: Re: The HOLY GRAIL....
Post by: Tamino on Aug 26, 09:31 AM 2016
? !