Diminishing probability , as any repeated pattern of chance events continue, its reversal becomes progressibly imminent.
Worthwhile strategy to be considered for EC.
Very satisfied with the results.
. For recreational purposes only. Play at your own risk.
Your thread title is a lame attempt at the most thread views in forum HISTORY
Lol
Still, I agree with him. That is, if I understood what I think he said.
Roulette ghost instead of trying to pick on titles try to ask him what he means, it may be worth more than "LOL".
He has lots of experience
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Apr 29, 10:14 PM 2015
Your thread title is a lame attempt at the most thread views in forum HISTORY
Lol
RouletteGhost, I can't imagine being so disrespectful to Tamino. His posts are always well thought out and come from years of live play experience. They're never off the cuff.
ND, have you discovered a way to capitalize on this concept that you would like to share with us?
Cheers,
GLC
I wasnt being disrespectful. I was joking around. Which isnt easy to tell i guess.
We must be able to joke :(
Understanding the first sentence of my thread in conjunction with reference to EC is what counts.
Experienced players don`t jump to conclusions, It requires long time experience at B & M casinos
How about this: 35 years in casinos 2 continents , 3 different countries ( Incl. US jurisdictions AC, LV, Laughlin , Foxwoods, Mohegan Sun, and New York)
Solid systems only and no martingale progressions either.
iminishing probability , as any repeated pattern of chance events continue, its reversal becomes progressibly imminent.
Roulette Ghost:
What is YOUR interpretation of that sentence ?
Let`s have it.
i give up
my statement was meant in a joking manner
i was kidding
surely smart guys like yourselves would have picked up on that
i wasnt being condescending or disrespectful
Quote from: Tamino on Apr 29, 05:02 PM 2015
Diminishing probability , as any repeated pattern of chance events continue, its reversal becomes progressibly imminent.
Worthwhile strategy to be considered for EC.
Very satisfied with the results.
I think i have heard this before. ive observed ECs, spasificly red black as its most noticeable switch patterns. are you saying for example, a run of 7 red, you would start betting on a run of black, perhaps with (i cant recall the progression name) the progression where you flatbet, but parley all winnings, going for that string of 7 black.
or do you mean by reversal, a return to mean, the statistical habit numbers have of trying to find balance. in which case my example would leave your BR quite a bit lighter than it was.
. For recreational purposes only. Play at your own risk.
Does "Up and Pull" come into the equation?
Let's consider a paradox or conundrum or however you care to style it...............
Number six comes. What are the chances the next spin will produce a six? Exactly the same. But something inside you says it is very, very unlikely a six will come again. What if six does comes again? You're at the "no way in hell" point. No way in hell will six hit three in a row. But it could.
But is it likely? Here we get into possible vs probable. It is possible--because nothing prevents it--that the six could hit ten times in a row but is is probable? No, it is not.
So we must weight this paradox constantly if we're going to play that game.
Huh?
Sam
Yep its like a weight, the further the numbers deviate from the mean, the heavier they get, pulling them back. But this is the question (if my analogy has anything to do with reality) can the weight be enough that it flips to the other side.
Tamino is this what your getting at? Mr.Cat, what do you rekon? A string of 20red, probability of such a thing occurring is low, very low. So when it snaps back, should we be looking for it overshooting the mark, looking for a string of black perhaps rather than the more expected chop? Ive seen it happen.
As for the gamblers fallacy, yep thats always going to be a monkey on our back i just wonder if its been made to look bigger than it is.
The long term odds for an EC :
1-1 3-1 7-1 15-1 31-1 63-1 etc double plus 1.
Betting BLACK against Red at the 4th spin he odds at Red winning are 31=1 whereas Black is 1-1 .
Quote from: Tamino on May 01, 11:34 AM 2015
The long term odds for an EC :
1-1 3-1 7-1 15-1 31-1 63-1 etc double plus 1.
Betting BLACK against Red at the 4th spin he odds at Red winning are 31=1 whereas Black is 1-1 .
What you are saying is after 3 reds in a row the next spin will be red 1 out of 15 times? Trying to understand. Thanks
And 6 reds in a row will happen 1 out of 63 times?
The odds are that the REDS are less likely repeatimg themselves.
At this point we are NOT discusssing a system .
Notice he did not say you would get a winner on the next spin, just that the streak is less likely to continue.
There is a system based on this.
Sam
Quote from: Tamino on May 01, 12:50 PM 2015
The odds are that the REDS are less likely repeatimg themselves.
At this point we are NOT discusssing a system .
I assume this is what Tamino means :-
link:s://archive.org/details/montecarloanecdo00bethiala
Page 112
O0
Quote from: Tamino on May 01, 12:50 PM 2015
The odds are that the REDS are less likely repeating themselves.
At this point we are NOT discussing a system .
That's completely not true....
Lots of people have trouble with this. If you bet before any spins on six in a row, the chance of winning is 1/2^6=1/64. But having seen the five reds, as you say, the chances are 1/2 each on red and black for the next spin. It is also true for any specific series of six spins, at the start the chance of that series is 1/64. If you were to bet on RBBRRB, that is also 1/64. Now that you have seen five reds, there are only two series of six that are possible: RRRRRR and RRRRRB. They each started out 1/64 and are now each 1/2.
Hope this helps
Quote from: caspian on Aug 22, 11:47 AM 2016Lots of people have trouble with this.
Most will never get it. Loan sharks love them.
Quote from: Tamino on Apr 29, 05:02 PM 2015
. For recreational purposes only. Play at your own risk.
What to play here?
Reply to Mumbojumbo
See opening post of this topic as well as post # 13 they should tell you what you can do with this outstanding idea .
I am under no obligation to offer full systems or methods for sharing.
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psinoiesm
I do not need your help. I have made it my business to stay away from advice given by math boyzz.
menotypo,
I didn´t offer any help. Read it again.
Sorry for the mix up. .
Quote from: Tamino on Aug 25, 02:16 PM 2016
psinoiesm
I do not need your help. I have made it my business to stay away from advice given by math boyzz.
Then you should refrain from posting factually inaccurate information on a public forum until which time you learnt and understood basic probability theory.
Thanks.
? !