Did someone test the power of RTM ? Or does it takes to long ? Or it doesn't work?
What do the math boys think about this ? Does the wheel balance most times ? Or always if you got the time? - HE
Happy to hear your thoughts :)
The spins in RX are rng right ?
Are they really random or fixed to level around 1000 spins ?
Can't seem to lose even one session using RTM :o
If you are in doubt you can load spins from live wheel or random.org
Quote from: denzie on Apr 25, 05:26 AM 2016
The spins in RX are rng right ?
Yes, but you can download real spins from 4 or 5 german casinos
Quote from: denzie on Apr 25, 05:26 AM 2016
Are they really random or fixed to level around 1000 spins ?
its just a random number. One after the other I dont know what "fixed to a level" means
Quote from: denzie on Apr 25, 05:26 AM 2016
Can't seem to lose even one session using RTM :o
RTM means RegressionToward the Mean to me
are you talking about something else?
Whats the point of a zillion numbers in a single stream, you'll never play like the answer you get.
Denz using RNG might use a couple of thousand spins,thats if hes lucky enough. Surely you need to test in random segments of around 400/500 spins like a live wheel would give for say 8 hrs,say a spin every minute.
Then you could use the result on fast RNG.
Quote from: nottophammer on Apr 25, 05:55 AM 2016
Whats the point of a zillion numbers in a single stream, you'll never play like the answer you get.
Denz using RNG might use a couple of thousand spins,thats if hes lucky enough. Surely you need to test in random segments of around 400/500 spins like a live wheel would give for say 8 hrs,say a spin every minute.
Then you could use the result on fast RNG.
I dont think you get what a random number is
Iwill in a minute when you tell me
its independent of any other number. It doesnt relate to any other number generated in the same range
You can get a number from Jackpot Joy, then get one from random.org, then one from a will hill live dealer, then one from a table at las vegas
You have 4 random numbers. You think they are not related because they are from 4 different wheels or RNGs but they are 4 random numbers. No different from any 4 random numbers.
you can put them in any order. Doesnt have to be in order of the time you got them.
testing in random segments of 400 doesnt mean anything.
The numbers dont know you have made them into a 400 number group
Just explained in RNG i dont worry about random, you can say 1 from here and 1 from there, but i dont play a number from there and a number from there. I use the stream from playtech or inspired gaming they just stream a line of yes random numbers to you but to me they are just a stream of numbers that math is not going to work with.
Save your fingers i dont need the math
Thanks Turner. i must put me stevie wonders on
Quote from: nottophammer on Apr 25, 06:20 AM 2016
Just explained in RNG i dont worry about random, you can say 1 from here and 1 from there, but i dont play a number from there and a number from there. I use the stream from playtech or inspired gaming they just stream a line of yes random numbers to you but to me they are just a stream of numbers that math is not going to work with.
Save your fingers i dont need the math
Thanks Turner. i must put me stevie wonders on
I dont get c***ney rhyming slang...sorry
and...I didnt mention Maths. Just what a random number is, and what it isnt
Stevie wonders dark glasses so i cant see the replies.
Anyway tell me when the random is going to stop this, 122 games today lost one, maybe tomorrow, not promoting KTF as Mr J would have everyone believe, just showed how you could play a simple way.
Wont belong before his alarm clock goes off and then the boredom will start all his old shite will start, i'm off thanks for the conversation.
Quote from: nottophammer on Apr 25, 06:34 AM 2016
Stevie wonders dark glasses so i cant see the replies.
Anyway tell me when the random is going to stop this, 122 games today lost one, maybe tomorrow, not promoting KTF as Mr J would have everyone believe, just showed how you could play a simple way.
Wont belong before his alarm clock goes off and then the boredom will start all his old shite will start, i'm off thanks for the conversation.
Just cos the dark glasses stop you seeing the truth doesnt mean the truth goes away
I was just saying what a random number was. Random isnt a noun. It wont be doing anything to stop anything. Its an adjective.
John Legend was always saying "give random something to think about".... "give random a task it cant cope with"
He didnt get it either
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 06:44 AM 2016
Just cos the dark glasses stop you seeing the truth doesnt mean the truth goes away
I was just saying what a random number was. Random isnt a noun. It wont be doing anything to stop anything. Its an adjective.
John Legend was always saying "give random something to think about".... "give random a task it cant cope with"
He didnt get it either
But how should you describe random number? From your point of view? Or maybe that is not so simple?
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 06:14 AM 2016
its independent of any other number. It doesnt relate to any other number generated in the same range
You can get a number from Jackpot Joy, then get one from random.org, then one from a will hill live dealer, then one from a table at las vegas
You have 4 random numbers. You think they are not related because they are from 4 different wheels or RNGs but they are 4 random numbers. No different from any 4 random numbers.
you can put them in any order. Doesnt have to be in order of the time you got them.
testing in random segments of 400 doesnt mean anything.
The numbers dont know you have made them into a 400 number group
Hi Tuner,
What you said all make sense to me but theres one thing I don't get it, if we get 4 numbers from different places for millions time, will all the numbers balance out in the long run? Or the color represented the number, example 1(RED) , 2(BLACK) etc..Like what happened for most roulette results/ sessions, even chance will "try" to balance out.. if yes, then why? TQ.
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 05:40 AM 2016
Yes, but you can download real spins from 4 or 5 german casinos
Thx for this. Drazen also
its just a random number. One after the other I dont know what "fixed to a level" means
I just noticed that it really behaves like the statistics of a real wheel. That's why I wondered if they fixed something to get close to those statistics. For example 400 red and 300 black in 700 spins...ooo we need to wake up black
RTM means RegressionToward the Mean to me
are you talking about something else? Nope. ...
Quote from: goldrosen on Apr 25, 07:08 AM 2016.Like what happened for most roulette results/ sessions, even chance will "try" to balance out..
With that info....what would you do ?
Quote from: denzie on Apr 25, 07:14 AM 2016
I just noticed that it really behaves like the statistics of a real wheel. That's why I wondered if they fixed something to get close to those statistics. For example 400 red and 300 black in 700 spins...ooo we need to wake up black
RTM has a different meaning. You don't have to wake up black! You play red, you will get the same results. Try for yourselves to see. For certain aspects, you have ignore what distribution and probability theories suggest, as it covers random only to the extend proof is available.
Quote from: tuddilue on Apr 25, 07:03 AM 2016
But how should you describe random number? From your point of view? Or maybe that is not so simple?
Tuddilue - It is a very good question. As you rightly said it is not simple.
Any set of numbers generated by a process that cannot be reproduced in a reliable manner is a random number. There are some flaws in this definition, but simply put in the context of what we are discussing roulette wheel is a true random number generator. Any numbers generated from the roulette wheel is random. Any numbers generated from RNG (in the context of things like Betvoyager, willhill casino etc) are psuedo-random. They can be reproduced if one knows the key or the algo behind that generator.
Quote from: goldrosen on Apr 25, 07:08 AM 2016
if we get 4 numbers from different places for millions time, will all the numbers balance out in the long run?
Balancing out is a very vague term. However, in the spirit of question, yes they will balance out. They will follow the same laws of distribution as if the numbers were generated from the same source.
Quote from: nottophammer on Apr 25, 06:34 AM 2016
Anyway tell me when the random is going to stop this, 122 games today lost one, maybe tomorrow, not promoting KTF as Mr J would have everyone believe, just showed how you could play a simple way.
Notto - Why overprotective. No one is saying KTF is going to lose because of random
in this thread. You have 122 games. Consider we do this. Take the first spin from all these 122 games and play as a game. Take the second spin from all these 122 games and play as a game. You will get the
same results that you are getting in KTF by playing them as a stream. Thats the point of discussion here.
Quote from: tuddilue on Apr 25, 07:03 AM 2016
But how should you describe random number? From your point of view? Or maybe that is not so simple?
to quote the dictionary,
Random numbers are numbers that occur in a sequence such that two conditions are met: (1) the values are uniformly distributed over a defined interval or set, and (2) it is impossible to predict future values based on past or present onesso if we see a pattern, it isnt there. We have an abstract mind.
Quote from: goldrosen on Apr 25, 07:08 AM 2016
Hi Tuner,
What you said all make sense to me but theres one thing I don't get it, if we get 4 numbers from different places for millions time, will all the numbers balance out in the long run? Or the color represented the number, example 1(RED) , 2(BLACK) etc..Like what happened for most roulette results/ sessions, even chance will "try" to balance out.. if yes, then why? TQ.
well yes...no matter where the number came from, as long as its random. I got 37 sets of spin data and set them in columns in XL
I chopped it off at the lowest sample, like 186, and went across so 1 from first set, 2nd from second set etc.
It was 5000 spins or so. It passed a chi square test for randomness.
So the data was totally shuffled and was still random.
If it mattered, my interference with how they came out would of showed up as the new order wasnt random anymore.
That test wasnt conclusive due to the sample size, but It convinced me that random numbers dont live in groups. They are totally independant of each other.
From that, past spins have no bearing on future spins.
If anyone has any tests to disprove that, I will gladly listen.
Quote from: Priyanka on Apr 25, 07:37 AM 2016
Tuddilue - It is a very good question. As you rightly said it is not simple. Any set of numbers generated by a process that cannot be reproduced in a reliable manner is a random number. There are some flaws in this definition, but simply put in the context of what we are discussing roulette wheel is a true random number generator. Any numbers generated from the roulette wheel is random. Any numbers generated from RNG (in the context of things like Betvoyager, willhill casino etc) are psuedo-random. They can be reproduced if one knows the key or the algo behind that generator.
Thanks for the answer Priyanka. I thought it was a process that generates the number. The thing is I'm trying to understand how it works. But it is not simple :smile:
Notto - Why overprotective. No one is saying KTF is going to lose because of random in this thread. You have 122 games. Consider we do this. Take the first spin from all these 122 games and play as a game. Take the second spin from all these 122 games and play as a game. You will get the same results that you are getting in KTF by playing them as a stream. Thats the point of discussion here.
The last thing you said to Notto. Yes that I have also experienced. But I can't really understand how it can work. I have tested with my 70 sessions of KTF and tried to run my old random numbers towards the same RNG. For example taken 10 start numbers and run KTF and also WTF from there. It just works and I can't understand how it can do that. I get the same result as if I start to run the numbers from scratch. That I think is strange. Why? because I always thought that you need to run the numbers in a stream. But that is not the case in reality. When you are using random numbers. That I can really understand. Not right now anyway :smile:
Winkel called it jump and some others calls it reset. That is a thing I also think is impressive. So if you just jump in a stream of random numbers than you will get a better trot. That I also have hard time to understand. But it works :ooh:
Yes I have much to learn with the random numbers. I'm starting to realize O0
Turner
Dont past spins matter because repeats are a guarantee within a cycle
If you take a number from another wheel that is another cycle?
Can this question be answered with 100 percent certainty
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 07:52 AM 2016
From that, past spins have no bearing on future spins.
Then why the wheel like to balance around 1000 spins ? And it does this a loooot :question:
Why it doesn't get more out of balance to let's say 10k spins. Which I never saw.
Quote from: tuddilue on Apr 25, 07:57 AM 2016
The last thing you said to Notto. Yes that I have also experienced. But I can't really understand how it can work. I have tested with my 70 sessions of KTF and tried to run my old random numbers towards the same RNG. For example taken 10 start numbers and run KTF and also WTF from there. It just works and I can't understand how it can do that. I get the same result as if I start to run the numbers from scratch. That I think is strange. Why? because I always thought that you need to run the numbers in a stream. But that is not the case in reality. When you are using random numbers. That I can really understand. Not right now anyway :smile:
Winkel called it jump and some others calls it reset. That is a thing I also think is impressive. So if you just jump in a stream of random numbers than you will get a better trot. That I also have hard time to understand. But it works :ooh:
Yes I have much to learn with the random numbers. I'm starting to realize O0
Tuddilue,
I am liking you more every day
You have an open mind which will help you.
And you are polite. Thanks.
Its hard to undertand why something acts one way and when you completely mix it up it acts the same.
Its because random numbers dont rely on each other to make patterns. They are independant. Thats exactly why it works that way
I wonder what a 50 piece orchestra would sound like if each person recoded their piece separate and it was mixed together.
RG and Denzie, you wouldnt like the answer lol
Guess what it is.
I’ve taken me Stevie wonders off.
I always say your maths is right, clever people have been working it out before me and after me, but yes math is going to get it right.
Now my part you can riddle parts of math at me all day long, but I’m that monkey who doesn’t hear.
I’ll say to you I have 37 pockets due, I don’t care how they come, but they come, you can give me more math riddles but my ignorance is my bliss.
Later I’ll be at the FOBT all I’ll be doing is watching 0x,1x and >1x’s, yes the trot/count, now from my useless average document, I have my time table, my A to Z if you like.
Time to put my Stevie wonders back on.
Thank you for your efforts
John Legend :twisted:
Quote from: tuddilue on Apr 25, 07:57 AM 2016
It just works and I can't understand how it can do that.
That's the definition of random.
Keep
The
Faith.
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 07:52 AM 2016
That test wasnt conclusive due to the sample size, but It convinced me that random numbers dont live in groups. They are totally independant of each other.
From that, past spins have no bearing on future spins.
If anyone has any tests to disprove that, I will gladly listen.
Turner - Let me divert you a little here.
Random numbers dont live in groups -> Totally independent -> Past dont have a bearing on future
As a kid I used to grow up in the southern most part of India in a place called Tirunelveli. Every winter, we used to have visitors. Right in december we have 100s of thousands of birds flying in and make this their place and they all vanish by the end of June returning to where they came from. Nice. Now the thought I have is, do the same birds come every year. May be may be not. Can we predict they will come every winter. Yes we can. Do the number of birds remain the same. Give or take a 1000, yes they do. Not a random event, eventhough certain parts of the event are random.
Drawing parallels. If you only observe numbers, they are always a random stream. No prediction possible unless you have the powers of Melisandre or Bran. But consider the relation between numbers. Are there laws they abide by. Yes they do.
So while numbers are independent, the relationship is not. While law of large numbers apply to the numbers, they dont apply to the relationships. Confusing it may sound, but worth giving a thought and glad to clarify any questions one might have.
Lets say this statement was factual : we will have a number repeat 3 times within 37 spins
Can that number be taken from another wheel?
If number 20 repeated on a wheel and we bet it on another wheel would that make sense
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 08:10 AM 2016
Denzie, you wouldnt like the answer lol
Shoot
Quote from: Priyanka on Apr 25, 08:16 AM 2016
So while numbers are independent, the relationship is not. While law of large numbers apply to the numbers, they dont apply to the relationships. Confusing it may sound, but worth giving a thought and glad to clarify any questions one might have.
Alright. ... this is what I needed to know. Thank you Pryanka.
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 08:09 AM 2016
Tuddilue,
I am liking you more every day
You have an open mind which will help you.
And you are polite. Thanks.
Its hard to undertand why something acts one way and when you completely mix it up it acts the same.
Its because random numbers dont rely on each other to make patterns. They are independant. Thats exactly why it works that way
I wonder what a 50 piece orchestra would sound like if each person recoded their piece separate and it was mixed together.
Thanks Turner for your polite words!
Yes I think this with the random numbers has opened my mind. I can't put the finger on it but I think it is fascinating...
I have started to play around with my random numbers and it makes it really powerful when you change your starting point towards the RNG. Why? you change the control of how the game starts. That is fascinating!
I will of course come with more questions in the future O0
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Apr 25, 08:20 AM 2016
If number 20 repeated on a wheel and we bet it on another wheel would that make sense
That is a fantastic question :thumbsup:
Everyone will have a different answer depending on what they believe in.
Ill answer tonight. on my phone right now
Quote from: Priyanka on Apr 25, 08:16 AM 2016
That's the definition of random. Keep The Faith.
Turner - Let me divert you a little here.
Random numbers dont live in groups -> Totally independent -> Past dont have a bearing on future
He he yes I will KTF always..
I read your random thoughts thread yesterday and it was interesting reading. But it is really hard for me to use in the real world. I understand that I do not really understand it and that I think is interesting :wink:
I think the big problem for me is that it gets so complicated. I mean if I compare with KTF or WTF or even Gut I think you have something to work with. In those strategies you have strict rules or the count. But that I can't see in the circles and that makes me just confused. I started to write in your thread but because I have hard to explain my standing point it is hard to ask questions.
But I think when you now know with my interest in how random works. It is more easier to comment here :smile:
I will of course study it more. I think the random topic is fascinating!
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 08:57 AM 2016
That is a fantastic question :thumbsup:
Everyone will have a different answer depending on what they believe in.
Ill answer tonight. on my phone right now
Ok thanks
The hypothetical scenario is a number will repeat 3 times
So if it repeated twice on one wheel would it make sense to bet it on another wheel for the 3rd repeat
Thanks
RG just a comment nothing personal
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Apr 25, 08:20 AM 2016
Lets say this statement was factual : we will have a number repeat 3 times within 37 spinsOkay with that.
Can that number be taken from another wheel? Yes, but with, a but, you’ll be starting at spin zero of the new cycle.
If number 20 repeated on a wheel and we bet it on another wheel would that make sense No, it’s like above, pointless it’s like clutching a number out of the air. Better to watch how the non-hit come.
Denz knows this, 50% of spins 1-10 have at least 1 repeat. But that’s a known fact from observations on a specific wheel. What would the point be of brining the last 9 non-hit from one wheel to another and bet they repeat, nothing to do with that wheel as you'd be starting in a new stream of 37 due #'s, an unknown
Quote from: denzie on Apr 25, 08:29 AM 2016
Shoot
every number has the same odds to hit. It will be uneven at first but because every number has the same odds, it will even out.
Its maths. Normal distribution. The belle curve shows how numbers will distribute. In 37, it will be 24 in a cycle of 37
each time its not 24, it less probable, until we get to 3 and 4 SD from that mean (24), like 18 hit and 19 dont, or 30 hit and 7 dont
it can happen, but it wont far more. Thats why we have repeats.
But every number has an equal chance, so it evens out over time.
Quoting Wikipedia on the Law of Large Numbers: "According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed."
It means that after a small number say 100 roulette spins, red and black will not be even, with say red being ahead of black by say 10 spins. It´s a big difference. Now, after a much larger number of trials, say 10000 spins red might still be ahead of black by 10 spins, but now it´s much closer to the average as the difference is now insignificant. It´s funny.. Because it´s useless.
Quote from: psimoes on Apr 25, 09:35 AM 2016It´s funny.. Because it´s useless.
Funny? Of what I'm seeing in rx it isn't that funny though. Trying really my best to lose a session ;)
I'll try with those casino spins next...
Quote from: nottophammer on Apr 25, 09:04 AM 2016
RG just a comment nothing personalDenz knows this, 50% of spins 1-10 have at least 1 repeat. But that’s a known fact from observations on a specific wheel. What would the point be of brining the last 9 non-hit from one wheel to another and bet they repeat, nothing to do with that wheel as you'd be starting in a new stream of 37 due #'s, an unknown
I think you must think the other way around. Think about the test with RouletteGhost 10numbers in KTF. That showed that you do not start at 0. You start at 11.
That I think is fascinating. Because then you only have 27 numbers left in the cycle and you have choosed the first 10.. Randomly..
I think if we choose a random 10 numbers and bet the other 27 with +1 -1 we would have OK results
Since we´re talking about it, it´s probably worth remembering on real wheels it´s about slots, pockets. We use numbers just to identify them but we could have used words, ideograms or any other symbols. On computer RNGs it´s about real numbers, right? There is not a relationship between the pockets but there is between the numbers,
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Apr 25, 10:08 AM 2016
I think if we choose a random 10 numbers and bet the other 27 with +1 -1 we would have OK results
That´s what I tried to say in KTF. In a large number of trials where almost all possible combinations are present, you will find that for every bet there is a maximum number of successive wins and successive losses. For any say 24 numbers bet, such as two dozens at a time, in 100000 spins you can expect to fail up to about 21 times in a row. It can be sooner or later. For a 27 numbers bet the expected losses in a row come down to around 10. So waiting for 10 unique numbers before betting is like a virtual loss afterwhich you can bet the opposite 27 numbers knowing the worst case scenario has passed and the next spin a sure win.
Quote from: Turner on Apr 25, 09:08 AM 2016
every number has the same odds to hit. It will be uneven at first but because every number has the same odds, it will even out.
Its maths. Normal distribution. The belle curve shows how numbers will distribute. In 37, it will be 24 in a cycle of 37
each time its not 24, it less probable, until we get to 3 and 4 SD from that mean (24), like 18 hit and 19 dont, or 30 hit and 7 dont
it can happen, but it wont far more. Thats why we have repeats.
But every number has an equal chance, so it evens out over time.
Why I wouldn't like this ? It's a very clear and good answer. Thx , much appreciated
Quote from: denzie on Apr 25, 09:47 AM 2016
Funny? Of what I'm seeing in rx it isn't that funny though. Trying really my best to lose a session ;)
Denzie I am not sure I understand, but how exactly are you attempting to exploit regression toward the mean here?
Are you measuring deviation to some point, and then try to play the opposite or it is something else?
Quote from: Drazen on Apr 26, 02:33 AM 2016
Are you measuring deviation to some point, and then try to play the opposite or ...
Yes something like that. Seems to work very good. Flatbet. Still struggling to get those real spins in rx. Coz on the standard rng of rx I just can't lose. So something not correct I think. (Test version rx)
Quote from: denzie on Apr 26, 02:46 AM 2016
Flatbet. Still struggling to get those real spins in rx
What is exactly the problem you are encountering here?
Your spins must be in .txt format in order for RX to load it and play it right. You can try with some files we have here on forum.
Quote from: Drazen on Apr 26, 04:09 AM 2016
What is exactly the problem you are encountering here?
Your spins must be in .txt format in order for RX to load it and play it right. You can try with some files we have here on forum.
Yeah, but you have to have the file paths correct, and know how to load a file
If someone hasnt beat me to it tonight when I get home, I will post some instructions
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Apr 25, 08:59 AM 2016
Ok thanks
The hypothetical scenario is a number will repeat 3 times
So if it repeated twice on one wheel would it make sense to bet it on another wheel for the 3rd repeat
Thanks
Im still thinking about it...lol
Quote from: Turner on Apr 26, 06:59 AM 2016
Im still thinking about it...lol
Lol ok
Grey area
Quote from: Turner on Apr 26, 05:55 AM 2016
Yeah, but you have to have the file paths correct, and know how to load a file
If someone hasnt beat me to it tonight when I get home, I will post some instructions
Maybe you could start a rx thread ? That would useful for many members
Quote from: denzie on Apr 26, 07:23 AM 2016
Maybe you could start a rx thread ? That would useful for many members
Really? Ive been using it for 6 years. Never did complex programming.
TG is a good RX programmer. Ive doctored many of his programmes to get things working.
I can tickle an existing programme to do slightly different things.
Anyhow, I could start a thread and begin with loading data from real casino
Quote from: Turner on Apr 26, 07:30 AM 2016
Anyhow, I could start a thread and begin with loading data from real casino
Good idea. And member with questions can post there...few good souls will help out. :thumbsup:
Regression to the mean systems leave the players mind trapped in the box that is the gambler's fallacy. Attempting to exploit the rtm is a fool's folly.
Quote from: The General on Apr 26, 12:47 PM 2016
Regression to the mean systems leave the players mind trapped in the box that is the gambler's fallacy. Attempting to exploit the rtm is a fool's folly.
uhu :)
Just so we are all on the same page
You can post all the winning charts and profits you want
General will still call it fallacy
Its a pointless uphill battle
The charts...sorry to say...are silly.
They're statistically insignificant small samples that have been unintentionally (and in some case intentionally curve fit) ten ways to Sunday. Scientific testing theY aiNt!
Quote from: The General on Apr 26, 01:04 PM 2016
The charts...sorry to say...are silly.
They're statistically insignificant small samples that have been unintentionally and in some case intentionally curve fit ten ways to Sunday. Scientific testing it aint!
K
ok...just new at this rx thing. i stop ;)
btw i checked ignatus his hotzone and something simular....that seems the way to go :thumbsup:
good job ignatus.
Ignatus rules!