Hi,
So I had been playing grass roots on paper in various ways. One
way I played, if you remember, was with a computer generated
list to play against. Somehow picking a sequence (like 1-2-3)
and using that and playing 1,3,9 seemed to make the most sense.
I played and practiced the random thing. And hit a loss after, like, 4 wins.
I reported that and as usual RG crawled up my ass telling me about longer term,
this and that. Which is why I use my wallpaper test. Weeds out most of the
crap.
So I tried again on paper and did better. And to be honest, picking 1,2,3 and also
having the randomness of entry within a group of 3 doesn't seem that stupid.
So I'm heavy in cash right now and just decided to go for it. I brough money,
my paper and pen. And played. Against 1,2,3. I won two groups (of 3. Play for one
win in the group of 3). And like clockwork lost the 1,3,9 on the 3rd group.
So I lost $120 at a $5 table.
Guess I got closure on THAT idea. (I WOULD have won my 4th bet).........
And as I tracked and watched and played again all I could thing was that, while
it may be unusual (you be the judge of "unusual" with 2 triple hit losses in
two consecutive sessions), but there ALWAYS seem to be "losses" in the trifecta
of attempts, while searching for the single win every 3 spins.
And I'm wondering, "why not play them"? Seems odd that it could be so easy to
consistently pick the 2-1 and miss the 1-2.
wrong subject.
You will catch on one of these dayd
You ever play an instrument? The HARP may suit you
Toilet leak make grass grow very well. :D
To think you would win every time is silly
Any method has losses
could it be that mogul is just unlucky?
Quote from: Tomla021 on Jun 26, 08:08 PM 2016
could it be that mogul is just unlucky?
Roulette can make anyone seem unlucky.
Quotecould it be that mogul is just unlucky?
Every winning method experiences variance fluctuations. If you have the edge, then the edge gradually dominates and over comes variance. The size of the variance depends on the size of edge that you have, and the number of numbers on which your betting a full unit. For example, if you're betting one unit on ten separate numbers, then you'd better be ready for 800 to 1000 unit fluctuations. Again, the edge will partially determine the depth of the variance.
However.......if you have no edge, then there's really no depth to the variance because the long term expectation is that you will lose, and eventually lose your entire bankroll. You have two things working against you, the house edge, and negative varaince. (The house edge and bad luck)The Grass Roots System doesn't give the player the edge, so the expectation is that the long you play it, the more you will lose.-The General
No easy money my friend.
Quote from: The General on Jun 26, 08:32 PM 2016The Grass Roots System doesn't give the player the edge, so the expectation is that the long you play it, the more you will lose.
I have to agree - I was a supporter of GRS up until recently, however it is now clear to me that this type of system/progression does not give you an edge...............it just wipes you out when the RFH hits.
In the early days it must have been pure luck that I won more than I lost - I only every tested with very small stakes but in the long run each of my BR's would get wiped out.
Nick
Quote from: The General on Jun 26, 08:32 PM 2016
Every winning method experiences variance fluctuations. If you have the edge, then the edge gradually dominates and over comes variance. The size of the variance depends on the size of edge that you have, and the number of numbers on which your betting a full unit. For example, if you're betting one unit on ten separate numbers, then you'd better be ready for 800 to 1000 unit fluctuations. Again, the edge will partially determine the depth of the variance.
However.......if you have no edge, then there's really no depth to the variance because the long term expectation is that you will lose, and eventually lose your entire bankroll. You have two things working against you, the house edge, and negative varaince. (The house edge and bad luck)
The Grass Roots System doesn't give the player the edge, so the expectation is that the long you play it, the more you will lose.
-The General
(link:s://i.imgflip.com/16j044.jpg)
Quote from: The General on Jun 26, 08:32 PM 2016However.......if you have no edge, then there's really no depth to the variance because the long term expectation is that you will lose, and eventually lose your entire bankroll. You have two things working against you, the house edge, and negative varaince. (The house edge and bad luck)
Wise words to remember.
QuoteWise words to remember.
Thanks Alekos
(link:s://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/92/15/6c/92156c5f8f7bd99bd22b0b5830ed9636.jpg)
I did a fair bit of testing of the grassroots method (the original version) with my collection of real wheel spins.
My experience is that flat betting won't work -- at some stage, sooner or later, you will be forced to use a negative progression (1 3 9 or a variant) to recoup lost bet amounts and that is a bankroll destroyer.