Is variance measurable?
Just a debate I would appreciate your thoughts on .....
Most of us got some very good methods/strategies to play with. Until that variance comes to take all our profit back.
What if we could somehow measure this variance. .......
In combination with statistics. ...
Quote from: denzie on Jul 02, 09:11 AM 2016
Is variance measurable?
...
In combination with statistics. ...
Yes!
Hi Winkel,
Well that would be my answer too. There are limits to certain events. And statistics of let's say a few million spins can't be ignored.
Now how to use these is the big question
Quote from: denzie on Jul 02, 09:30 AM 2016
...
And statistics of let's say a few million spins can't be ignored.
Now how to use these is the big question
The answer to this ... you claimed doesn´t work!
Also why all online casino's kick you out the session if we don't place bets? They don't like we are waiting for something?
All things like that makes people think. All the info they provide is not because they care and wanna help us. It's because they know how easily the human brain can be fooled. So better to look for things they do that doesn't "help" us...
Quote from: winkel on Jul 02, 09:32 AM 2016
The answer to this ... you claimed doesn´t work!
For me the only thing that works is patience. If I sit down and start playing then variance is coming for me. If it's not today of tomorrow it will be soon. But certain events always happen. And if you wait long enough to not see them happen. .....
Not wanna yak about my thread Denzies parlay .....but I've noticed if I wait certain virtual dd....I can't make it lose. The only downside is patience and seeing many betting opportunity fly by..... but still better to not lose money
Quote from: denzie on Jul 02, 09:11 AM 2016
Is variance measurable?
Sure is, see here (link:://:.roulettician.com/statistics.html#mozTocId635558).
In gambling:
Variance = Luck. Good or bad. Whenever you see this word in gambling, replace it with luck. Furthermore, it's not possible to side step luck by using statistics.
Over time, luck isn't what's really consuming your bankrolls, it's the house edge. This is easily proven mathematically.
There are lies, there are damn lies but the worst kind of all are STATISTICS . Benjamin Disraeli .
Yes you can measuring both statistics and variance.
This is overrepresented events contra underrepresented events for even money bets.
At left side you have the overrepresented events and above you have the underrepresnted events.
(link:://i58.tinypic.com/2yk1flh.jpg)
You can do you own chart using the Z-Score and you don't need any math skills to do so, i don't follow Bayes math Formulas, so i made it easy for and attach excel sheet, build your own statistical variance chart :-)
In the random game, it's not possible to side step variance by using statistics. Try as you might, the payout will always be short of the probability of winning within the random game.
So isn't there a possibility to measure events on ec , doz , straight numbers , singles etc to make the ultimate tracker ?
:o
I believe TG uses statistics too recruit. He uses that on straight numbers. The ones going for a second and third and fourth hit.
He's doing alright. At least he said so
Anyway just was thinking if it's possible to make such tracker. ...
QuoteSo isn't there a possibility to measure events on ec , doz , straight numbers , singles etc to make the ultimate tracker ?
Sure you can measure them, but it's a dumb idea.
(link:://cdn.ebaumsworld.com/mediaFiles/picture/2358379/84540926.jpg)
Quote from: The General on Jul 03, 01:49 PM 2016
Sure you can measure them, but it's a dumb idea.
Don't bias wheel hunters measure variance? ;)
Biased wheel players are testing the fitness of the gambling device, (the wheel) and the effect of physical defects. However the system player is using it in a vein attempt to beat the random game of roulette.
Quote from: The General on Jul 03, 02:53 PM 2016
However the system player is using it in a vein attempt to beat the random game of roulette.
Like Turbo does?
So maybe not such a dumb idea then... >:D
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 03, 02:37 PM 2016
Don't bias wheel hunters measure variance? ;)
And use past spins. Thats a fallacy :thumbsup:
Quote from: Turner on Jul 03, 03:15 PM 2016
And use past spins. Thats a fallacy :thumbsup:
Yeah.
General, I think you should read up on the history of the game, learn some basic probability. A good site to visit is thewizardofodds.com.
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 03, 03:23 PM 2016
Yeah.
General, I think you should read up on the history of the game, learn some basic probability. A good site to visit is thewizardofodds.com.
You forgot to recommend Russell T Barnharts Book
" How to beat wobbly wheels back in 1992"
QuoteAnd use past spins. Thats a fallacy :thumbsup:
Not when past spins are being used to measure the fitness of the gambling device and to measure the effect of observable defects.
Comparing what a biased wheel player's use of data to what a system player does is not comparing apples to apples. :wink:
QuoteYou forgot to recommend Russell T Barnharts Book
" How to beat wobbly wheels back in 1992"
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Yes, a goood book. :thumbsup:
Quote from: The General on Jul 03, 03:32 PM 2016
Yes, a goood book. :thumbsup:
Ive read it twice. No mention of the internet, although he did recommend Pong as a good computer game lol
Quote from: Turner on Jul 03, 03:42 PM 2016
Ive read it twice. No mention of the internet, although he did recommend Pong as a good computer game lol
I don't know why this joker underestimates peoples intelligence. Calling system players simple minded? Insane
(link:s://cdn.meme.am/instances/62914407.jpg)
QuoteI don't know why this joker underestimates peoples intelligence. Calling system players simple minded? Insane-Rouletteghost
Because I've read your posts. As a result, I'm convinced that I've been over estimating yours! :thumbsup:
Quote from: The General on Jul 03, 03:55 PM 2016
(link:s://cdn.meme.am/instances/62914407.jpg)
Because I've read your posts. As a result, I'm convinced that I've been over estimating yours! :thumbsup:
Ok
Thanks for your opinion
But at the end of the day i really don't care what you think about me. I am doing fantastic in life right now
And i don't need to chase biased wheels
How are things in your mothers basement? Musty?
Quote from: The General on Jul 03, 03:32 PM 2016ou forgot to recommend Russell T Barnharts Book
" How to beat wobbly wheels back in 1992"
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I thought you were good at cut and pasting?
You copied the bottom line too...
Nice to see this thread evolving :-\
QuoteNice to see this thread evolving :-\ -denzie foolishly replied
Denzie,
Logic, it's always in the way. ::)
It's nice to see that you're also adding detailed, in depth, well thought out replies that are also on topic. :thumbsup:
Thx for stopping by. ...always a pleasure
QuoteThx for stopping by. ...always a pleasure-denzie
Is there anything else that you'd like to add to the thread that's on topic? ::)
Anything? Any bit of wisdom? Nothing?
Perhaps you can explain why you feel that you can exploit variance by using statistics?
Not at this moment. I'll wait till you somehow fall asleep or go watch old grumpy men or something
Quote from: denzie on Jul 02, 09:11 AM 2016
Is variance measurable?
Just a debate I would appreciate your thoughts on .....
Most of us got some very good methods/strategies to play with. Until that variance comes to take all our profit back.
What if we could somehow measure this variance. .......
In combination with statistics. ...
Ok I would like to try again.
If we have a bet selection that's very good. But of course still loses to the HE . But let's say if we put a certain system on a graph...let it run for whatever k spins. We see the line goes up and down non stop.
Couldn't we measure the average dd ?
If we could then couldn't we know when to bet ?
Quote from: denzie on Aug 04, 12:42 PM 2016
Couldn't we measure the average dd ?
If we could then couldn't we know when to bet ?
Denzie, we can always figure out an average DD. But the problem is it is an
average and it is a dangerous word. Knowing the average will not help you in deciding when to bet as it is an average, you could go up or down at that point. Your definition and idea will work when we find the perfect or more/less perfect wave to work upon. But we dont get that wave using standard random selections and hence my opinion is it is not workable.
That's probably the difficult part...finding that wave. Although I have few.
In Denzies parlay it is very hard to lose if we wait the dd. It's actually more annoying to see the many winning opportunities fly by.
In gut we have some crossings that also seem to go up and down. Even if we go in it still can go down but it should pull up and recover the losses and make winnings.
Things like that. ...
Denzie - I havnt read much about your parlay, so cant comment.
But with respect to GUT, I dont want to comment on whether it loses or wins and trigger a debate. But what I can definitely say is it doesnt make a difference if you wait for the DD or not, it gives the same results based on my simulations.
Quote from: denzie on Aug 04, 12:57 PM 2016
In gut we have some crossings that also seem to go up and down. Even if we go in it still can go down but it should pull up and recover the losses and make winnings.
Things like that. ...
Quote from: Priyanka on Aug 04, 01:10 PM 2016
Denzie - I havnt read much about your parlay, so cant comment.
Guys,
You're wasting your time if you're trying to side step variance (large drawdowns). Each spin of the wheel is independent. Read up on the gambler's fallacy/Monte Carlo fallacy, basic probability, and the history of the game and you'll understand why.
Best of luck,
The General
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 04, 09:57 PM 2016
100% accurate !!
Ken
Where can i get tickets to this tag team love fest
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 04, 10:04 PM 2016
Where can i get tickets to this tag team love fest
Right is right, wrong is wrong. I cant/wont pretend he's wrong. Go to the light RG, its very liberating.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 04, 10:20 PM 2016
Right is right, wrong is wrong. I cant/wont pretend he's wrong. Go to the light RG, its very liberating.
Ken
im not saying he is wrong
im saying he is arrogant
and there is no reason for it
people like the hobby of roulette and exploring new approaches
he pisses on the parade....for no reason....
he comes here everyday to tell people that they are wasting their time
well what does that say about him?
if everyone is "wasting their time" isn't he also wasting his time by coming here and entertaining it?
let me goto the craps forum
where cats talk dice
and tell them they r wasting time and they know nothing
see how far that gets me
a kick in the ass is what ill get
general should talk AP and AP only and leave people alone
@General >> I noticed something quite interesting, only because I "keep track" of pretty much everything. I'll shoot you an email.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 04, 10:28 PM 2016
@General >> I noticed something quite interesting, only because I "keep track" of pretty much everything. I'll shoot you an email.
Ken
share with the whole class!!! secrets are not nice!!!!
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 04, 10:31 PM 2016
share with the whole class!!! secrets are not nice!!!!
No no no, I notice things at the roulette wheel and it carries over to other "numbers" as well.
Its interesting but far from fascinating, not a huge deal. My toe jam is more important but yes, I noticed it.
Ken
@General >> Daaaaaaamn, forgot to say, dont PM me, email instead please.
Ken
As per the survey, I have removed bickering.
RG, you keep interupting posts to tell people to ignore Caleb, then, you are the only one not ignoring him.
come on man!
Quote from: Turner on Aug 05, 06:40 AM 2016
As per the survey, I have removed bickering.
RG, you keep interupting posts to tell people to ignore Caleb, then, you are the only one not ignoring him.
come on man!
Sometimes i have a knee jerk reaction to situations that don't make sense
Quote from: denzie on Aug 04, 01:25 PM 2016
Any details or have you made any thread for discussion or explaining your approach? The graph looks sweet for 15.000 spins
I think with some discussion/ideas based also on variance/deviation aid out can be interesting. If you have any thread made or want to pm feel free ;)