Hi everyone. I wanted to check my math on something i'm checking.
So. Suppose we're talking for 1% house edge. (This translates as 49.5% Win Chance, right?)
Applying martingale on this have i calculated correctly my maths about how many time in a row it is supposed to lose per fixed period of spins?
Let's say for the event to lose 13 times in a row.
The chance is 0.495^13 = 0.000107 (0.0001071193 or 0.01071193%) This can be translated as 1 time in 9335 spins
So with 1% House Edge the chance of losing 13 times in a row is 1 time in 9335 spins. (on average. Ignoring variance etc)
Have I got it correct or miscalculated any part?
Thanks! :)
I actually think I got it wrong. I was calculating my odds and not my odds of losing. So for 1% HE it must be 0.505^13 = 0.0001389
So 0.0001389 or 0.01389%. Which can be translated 1 into 7198 spins. I think this is the correct. Any math guy could confirm or correct would be grateful :)
Blackjack basic strategy
.5 % house edge
Progressions cant even fight that variance
Bellagio
Why 1% HE....May I ask
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 20, 02:12 PM 2016
Blackjack basic strategy
.5 % house edge
Progressions cant even fight that variance
I know that progressions can't beat the variance (even on a 0.5 HE as you say) But my point wasn't to test if I can make profit against HE using martingale. Or at least not at these table limits which is impossible. In a much bigger betting limits and range we could discuss it. As I said on a previous post there are places online to bet on as low as 0.000005 $ per bet and as high as 10,000$ all in the same table. So at these situations you can test much better any progression.
So. My post on this one is about HE and losses in a row. Can anyone tell me/verify me that I got my maths correct? I don;t need to be told that martingale won't win in longrun in casino table. :)
Quote from: Turner on Aug 20, 02:14 PM 2016
Bellagio
Why 1% HE....May I ask
It's a game that looks like roulette but it actually has smaller HE (1%) That's why i ask for 1% and the losses I say on the post. Have I got my maths correct for 1% HE? :)
Quote from: BellagioOwner on Aug 24, 04:50 PM 2016
It's a game that looks like roulette but it actually has smaller HE (1%) That's why i ask for 1% and the losses I say on the post. Have I got my maths correct for 1% HE? :)
well, sorry to go on but the maths are based on how many numbers on the wheel and what they pay you
So, HE is being paid 35:1 when it should be 36:1 or 37:1 so it has to be known how the HE is 1% because it must mean they have no zero and its commission or what?
The number rolled per turn can be up to 100. For rolling over 50.49 you get a payout of 2x (Win chance 49.5% )
So with 49.5% Win Chance you get using maths 1% HE (unlike Even money bets with payout 2x on roulette which give you 48.6% Win chance aka 18/37 aka 2.7% HE
So. By the stats given I KNOW that the HE is 1% as i stated in the initial post. My question is: Can someone verify me if in a game with 1% HE , the chance of losing a bet (with 49.5% Win Chance) 13 times in a row is once every 7198 spins? (on average. Ignoring variance etc) Have I got my maths correct? Thanks O0