I have not read every post here, sorry if this was brought up. Regarding, switching numbers from source to source. Does this jump from RNG numbers, then to actuals, then back?
....or is this ONE long stream of numbers? I ask because, if the 7 and 21 are hot (for now) and the grouping changes, the 7 and 21 are now meaningless (imo). I hope my question/concern makes sense? I'm not the best at explaining things.
Ken
I don't know the right answer, but if you could give an exact definition of what the word "hot" (in connection to numbers) means to you, so it could easily be analyzed per programm.
grts
Herby
for reference see: link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17018.msg156478#msg156478 (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17018.msg156478#msg156478)
"Hot" has little to do with my question. I could say "cold" just as easily.
Ken
Ken....not sure what you are referinng to. Is it Steves game?
If I remember correctly, Steve mentioned somewhere that the database contains live spins he received from his players. So it could be 50 spins form one source, the next 100 from an other.
Quote from: ati on Aug 21, 04:48 PM 2016
If I remember correctly, Steve mentioned somewhere that the database contains live spins he received from his players. So it could be 50 spins form one source, the next 100 from an other.
Yes, this is my question/point.
So if a couple certain numbers were HOT from one grouping, the next grouping, we are starting over (sort of)?
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 21, 05:05 PM 2016
Yes, this is my question/point.
So if a couple certain numbers were HOT from one grouping, the next grouping, we are starting over (sort of)?
Ken
well no...
If a number is random, then it makes no difference where it come from or where its positioned.
There are no groupings
I just generated these numbers
22 3 13 27 19 7 31 8 12 28 10 9 <<<< 12 numbers random.org
25 32 27 0 21 26 29 2 14 30 24 5 <<<< 12 numbers Roulette Xtreme random
19 1 19 27 3 5 15 19 8 35 8 24 19 <<<< 13 live spins german casino
37 spins, 24 hit 6 repeats and 13 not hit. Nothing strange here
19 is hot because of "normal distribution" and isnt "not really hot" because the source of the numbers are different.
All that is hard to grasp...
The maths of normal distribution is because the numbers are random.
The pre requisite of this is the number was randomly generated
(a random number is one that is drawn from a set of possible values, each of which is equally probable)Of course, a biased wheel doesnt have a set of possible values that are equally probable
The AP player will know all the above, and know the numbers which are hitting above expectation due to bias, not normal distribution.
Quote from: Turner on Aug 21, 05:53 PM 2016I just generated these numbers
22 3 13 27 19 7 31 8 12 28 10 9 <<<< 12 numbers random.org
25 32 27 0 21 26 29 2 14 30 24 5 <<<< 12 numbers Roulette Xtreme random
19 1 19 27 3 5 15 19 8 35 8 24 19 <<<< 13 live spins german casino
37 spins, 24 hit 6 repeats and 13 not hit. Nothing strange here curve fitting
I make 26 hit
Quote from: nottophammer on Aug 21, 06:47 PM 2016
I make 26 hit
Curve fitting..lol
I just counted wrong.
26 is quite normal.
No comments other than a counting mistake?
I can only upload part of the spins file at a time because it's huge and server would have problems. If it reaches the end and i forget to upload the next part, then it switches the rng until i upload the next part. I don't forget because i get reminders but sometimes i didnt change it in time. Like maybe 1 day on rng (if any) for every 20 days of spins database.
ps, its still possible that players scrape results and find accidental overlapping spins, or exploit the poor RNG (which comes from the centos operating system). From server logs I can see when a user does this, and wont let them get away with it.
Ok, I got it.
Ken
Quote from: Turner on Aug 21, 05:53 PM 2016
well no...
If a number is random, then it makes no difference where it come from or where its positioned.
There are no groupings
So Turner, if the 35 was hit 6 times in the last 20 spins and then the "group of numbers" changed, you feel it'll be exactly the same?
Ken
I have really enjoyed using Steve's game to exercise various techniques but the one that is of use is warm/ hot numbers and a grouping of 16 constant numbers I play as corner bets. I know the bet characteristics of these methods in great detail so use warning triggers to pause/ stop/ start/ attack/ take profit. I understand the tranches of live spin numbers come in approximate 300 spins which say for a German table might be average.
Yes it is most helpful if you know the cut point because any progressions/ leads/ short cycle characteristics/ signals/ hots can all be made redundant with a session change.
However, and happily the 16 number corner bets can crunch through such randomisers sometimes without problems.
This morning numbers 1, 2 and 0 were outstandingly hot and Kubrick took full advantage.
Great question, and again sincere thanks to Steve for hosting this.
Thanks and you're welcome. Everyone also needs to keep in mind its a community game, so when there's something like obvious bad RNG being used (the default rng is very bad) I need to know about it because it means the spin file finished. There needs to be another mod added so I can be notified or something like a server reboot, which would mean it would switch to rng prematurely. So the system is not perfect, but other than bad rng and accidentally repeating spin files, there doesnt appear to be any cheating loophole anymore.
"This morning numbers 1, 2 and 0 were outstandingly hot" >> Ok but this is based on the same SOURCE (group) of numbers, correct?
@Steve >> My question here is in GENERAL terms and has little to do with your gift of playing/practice for us. Its NOT an insult to you, I hope you understand that from me.
Ken
I would need to see the sequence of numbers to know for sure, but when you see ridiculous hot numbers it is probably because it switched to bad rng. A mod is being done so it wont happen, and will just go from one file to the next. For now it just works with one file at a time. Anyone paying close attention at the right times can exploit it, although it only happens comparatively rarely. Again a simple change will make things run properly all the time.
No there is not just one source of numbers.
Quote from: Turner on Aug 21, 05:53 PM 2016
22 3 13 27 19 7 31 8 12 28 10 9 25 32 27 0 21 26 29 2 14 30 24 5 19 1 19 27 3 5 15 19 8 35 8 24 19
are these live spun numbers or RNG, are they from one source or different the question is could your method win with this set of numbers
Yes the hot numbers I quoted were clearly from the one session source, and in fact here they are as recorded by me. In this example I used hot numbers to win, and a street play method which is based on short cycle cluster analysis. I know for certain it was the one session source because throughout the session the hits were flowing on first or second attempt basis using 9 number sets to predict a likely statistical edge outcome. That may all sound gobbledegook but it was recognised and developed by a professional statistician and then into a flat bet by me. The statistician used to short progress ( 4 attempts in a short progression on 9 targets and stop if failing the re-set for a second wave recovery attack).
Of course it also have been random seamless but I try to avoid seams as my belief in short cycle theory in roulette is total.
My other approach on the corners for 16 numbers struggled in this group so I was not playing it. Curious that one fails but another flourishes. I like that simple flexibility. I also must empahasise as seen from my playing stats I play only very short sessions, usually only less than a dozen spins, merely trying to time entry and exit. I call it 'Time Theory'. lol.
Here are this morning's session numbers ( 27 I observed and played live 22 spins).
1
27
30
29
9
10
20
0
2
1
2
1
21
1
27
31
14
18
31
22
23
3
29
13
7
23
18
---
please do not put this sequence down to poor RNG as I believe this exhibits characteristic short cycle penultimate spin phase cycles where a dealer is alternating regularly every alternate spin back to the same wheel zone ( Euro wheel), particularly with number 1. I am a big fan of this number on the Euro wheel because for me it is right on the boundary between C and D wheel zones and shows the overlaps. In the really useful sequence above the ball was bouncing from C/D boundary to B zone and back to C/D zone again several cycles.
Hope this helps.
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 21, 08:19 PM 2016
So Turner, if the 35 was hit 6 times in the last 20 spins and then the "group of numbers" changed, you feel it'll be exactly the same?
Ken
Each number is random and independent
Hot numbers are created because every number has the same chance to show.
The mean for that chance is 24 in 37
There will be deviations from that mean but they have less chance.
Thats why we have repeats on random numbers.
If all 37 numbers are deemed random...why would it matter where they came from?
If the source wasnt random then thats different
Quote from: XXVV on Aug 22, 04:09 AM 2016My other approach on the corners for 16 numbers struggled in this group so I was not playing it.
Is MB 16 a rigid set 2/5-11/15-16/20-31/35.
One more ? WF means
Thanks
Quote from: Turner on Aug 22, 05:06 AM 2016
Each number is random and independent
Hot numbers are created because every number has the same chance to show.
The mean for that chance is 24 in 37
There will be deviations from that mean but they have less chance.
Thats why we have repeats on random numbers.
If all 37 numbers are deemed random...why would it matter where they came from?
If the source wasnt random then thats different
I'll re-word it. We have 50 numbers from a casino (one table) in Las Vegas...the 7 & 32 have each hit 5 times. Next, we know for a fact our GROUP of numbers are NOW from a casino in Reno. Do the 7 & 32 mean anything to you now and why?
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 22, 11:29 AM 2016
I'll re-word it. We have 50 numbers from a casino (one table) in Las Vegas...the 7 & 32 have each hit 5 times. Next, we know for a fact our GROUP of numbers are NOW from a casino in Reno. Do the 7 & 32 mean anything to you now and why?
Ken
A)If you think of the 50 numbers as related in some way, no, because you believe that switching to Reno is a different set of numbers and somehow 7 and 32 came hot on that table in vegas
B)If you think random numbers are independent, you know the 50 numbers are not related and 7 and 32 have hit above expectation because the mean is 24 and some will hit and others wont leaving some that will hit a few times.
The table isnt the reason. What random numbers do is the reason, so to switch to Reno wont make any difference.
The question is, if I believe B), would I be playing hot numbers or would I be playing AP?
There is nothing to say 7 and 32 will hit again in the next 200 spins. Thats for A and for B
Ken, why do you think 7 and 32 are hot and will hit again (if you do, that is)
Well then this goes back to the 15 year debate I have been having (while most only read it).
Solution.....close the boards down.
GUT, KTF etc.
So the bottom line is.....computers or AP, thats it?
You have no idea how much you made my day. Its stuff like this (and I know Turbo agrees), that only makes me more silent. Share info, for what? So the nay-sayers can benefit? I think I'll pass.
Ken
Hot numbers are gamblers fallacy
Unless wheel is defective
Im not knocking it
All my methods are gamblers fallacy
If it works it works
Just because it falls under gamblers fallacy doesn't mean it doesnt work enough
All im saying is you can bash KTF until you are blue in the face, it fights the same HE you do.....
Your method is no better or no worse then anyone elses.
Doesnt matter how you choose the bet. Never changes.
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 22, 12:08 PM 2016
Well then this goes back to the 15 year debate I have been having (while most only read it).
Solution.....close the boards down.
GUT, KTF etc.
So the bottom line is.....computers or AP, thats it?
You have no idea how much you made my day. Its stuff like this (and I know Turbo agrees), that only makes me more silent. Share info, for what? So the nay-sayers can benefit? I think I'll pass.
Ken
Turbo believes B actually.
Ken...I didnt say what I believe. I just stated facts.
Im actually not sure you are replying to my post...was looking to see if there was another post after mine.
I didnt say AP or the highway either. Was attemting a devils advocate approach to promote some debate.
Oh well
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 22, 12:35 PM 2016
Im not knocking it
All my methods are gamblers fallacy
If it works it works
Just because it falls under gamblers fallacy doesn't mean it doesnt work enough
All im saying is you can bash KTF until you are blue in the face, it fights the same HE you do.....
Your method is no better or no worse then anyone elses.
Doesnt matter how you choose the bet. Never changes.
This is where we could get yourself, me, General, Turner all going in different directions.
Question for you RG >> what do you think of this method? >> bet the 2 4 6 only after an odd number hits and WITH a progression << what do you think of this??
By your definition (and some others) that method is NO BETTER than GUT, do you agree? You should if we/you are consistent.
The other point, dont put *ME* in the grouping with...."you guys", its insulting. I dont mean that in a bad way. I put in too much time to be referred to as a....KTF kinda guy.
I paid my dues, we can disagree all day long. You're not in my realm.
Ken
Quote from: Turner on Aug 22, 12:37 PM 2016
Turbo believes B actually.
Ken...I didnt say what I believe. I just stated facts.
Im actually not sure you are replying to my post...was looking to see if there was another post after mine.
I didnt say AP or the highway either. Was attemting a devils advocate approach to promote some debate.
Oh well
...and thats cool, thanks. My point is this....people (not you) cant say its either AP or computers only!! ....and, Oh by the way, I really like xxx method. It makes no sense.
Ken
The best system ever >> bet the 2 4 6 only after an odd number hits and WITH a progression, what do you think of this system??
Point is this.....not one system guy here can say this system sucks! If everything is the SAME, this is not a bad system, it cant be.
Ken
My point is no matter how the chips got there the bets have the same odds
If you bet 2 numbers that are hot or 2 numbers when the wind is 3mph it does not matter. Same odds
Im not saying triggers cant work though...
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 22, 01:11 PM 2016
The best system ever >> bet the 2 4 6 only after an odd number hits and WITH a progression, what do you think of this system??
Point is this.....not one system guy here can say this system sucks! If everything is the SAME, this is not a bad system, it cant be.
Ken
I keep saying this.
No matter how you choose the reason why you place chips on the carpet, the snapshot of those chips, as they are placed, from an observer who doesnt know your method/system will observe that those odds will not be paid in full due to the HE and can correctly say that the bets will lose in the long run.
You are placing chips within the games inbuilt negative expectation.
Thats an absolute fact, unless someone can prove me wrong.
Quote from: nottophammer on Aug 22, 07:08 AM 2016
Is MB 16 a rigid set 2/5-11/15-16/20-31/35.
One more ? WF means
Thanks
Yes M16 is a rigid fixed set of 16. This is deliberate because the cycle moves in and out of win/ loss cycles and the patterns are easy to observe for a quick response to enable a short trend more often than not to be seized upon. That is why I play very short sessions. Sometimes 1 spin, sometimes 20-30 if I need to recover from a mistake./ correction where possible. Sometimes I have to take a loss. Win cycles often enable a triple series of 1 spin win outcomes. This can give a 5-10,000 (on this table to the max) unit gain in 3-5 spins sometimes. Then get out and take profit.
WF is 'warm fuzzy' means we target warm numbers ( 2 appearances and we play for a third appearance).
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 22, 01:24 PM 2016
My point is no matter how the chips got there the bets have the same odds
If you bet 2 numbers that are hot or 2 numbers when the wind is 3mph it does not matter. Same odds
Im not saying triggers cant work though...
\
Its all in your wording RG. If you say triggers can work, then you are not battling 5.26% (2.7%)
Then we can throw that word around...EDGE. Do I think its an edge? Heck no. Do you? You cant say its not an edge IF YOU BELIEVE IN TRIGGERS. Again, the wording.
Ken
Quote from: XXVV on Aug 22, 01:40 PM 2016
Yes M16 is a rigid fixed set of 16. This is deliberate because the cycle moves in and out of win/ loss cycles and the patterns are easy to observe for a quick response to enable a short trend more often than not to be seized upon. That is why I play very short sessions. Sometimes 1 spin, sometimes 20-30 if I need to recover from a mistake./ correction where possible. Sometimes I have to take a loss. Win cycles often enable a triple series of 1 spin win outcomes. This can give a 5-10,000 (on this table to the max) unit gain in 3-5 spins sometimes. Then get out and take profit.
WF is 'warm fuzzy' means we target warm numbers ( 2 appearances and we play for a third appearance).
...but according to others, this system is no better than picking birthdays AND short sessions mean nothing. Again, EVERYONE should finish the same?
Ken
RG, I'm not really sure what you believe? Why not play my 2 4 6 system I just posted? Its no better/worse than GUT/KTF, correct?
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 22, 01:11 PM 2016
The best system ever >> bet the 2 4 6 only after an odd number hits and WITH a progression, what do you think of this system??
Point is this.....not one system guy here can say this system sucks! If everything is the SAME, this is not a bad system, it cant be.
Ken
Lets see who answers this......who thinks this system is ok, sucks or great?
Ken
Quote from: Turner on Aug 22, 01:31 PM 2016
I keep saying this.
No matter how you choose the reason why you place chips on the carpet, the snapshot of those chips, as they are placed, from an observer who doesnt know your method/system will observe that those odds will not be paid in full due to the HE and can correctly say that the bets will lose in the long run.
You are placing chips within the games inbuilt negative expectation.
Thats an absolute fact, unless someone can prove me wrong.
Turner, I'm not trying to put you on the spot but too many people ride the fence with this. Is there a specific method you play (or would play) and I dont mean out of enjoyment? I am not asking for the details of the method, I dont care. If you say NO, then you know what my next post is.....
It took me about 5 seconds to come up with this goofy 2 4 6 system. Compare that to my current VERY VERY decent 2 number method (I keep bragging about, sorry). It took me well over a year to just come up with the RULES, not counting actual play time. So BOTH methods are the same? No fu***n way.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 22, 02:01 PM 2016
Lets see who answers this......who thinks this system is ok, sucks or great?
Ken
I did answer it. Its just chips on the carpet that have the same odds as any other method.
Its OK. It may win then eventually lose in the long run
You will probably stay in the game longer though, with a couple of numbers flat bet....but same outcome
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 22, 02:04 PM 2016
Is there a specific method you play (or would play) and I dont mean out of enjoyment? I am not asking for the details of the method, I dont care. If you say NO, then you know what my next post is.....
Of course there is. Its designed to keep me in the game as long as possible....but I will lose eventually
Quote from: Turner on Aug 22, 02:09 PM 2016
I did answer it. Its just chips on the carpet that have the same odds as any other method.
Its OK. It may win then eventually lose in the long run
You will probably stay in the game longer though, with a couple of numbers flat bet....but same outcome
(lol) I know you answered, I meant the total number of people that answer, sorry.
So we have....
A) Its ok
B) It sucks
C) Its great
D) Makes no difference, WHICH ALSO can mean...it does not suck.
Usually how I know I bring up a great point/question....I get few answers (lol), thats how I know. People dont want to associate their NAME to something in case it gets QUOTED in future conversations.
Ken
Quote from: Turner on Aug 22, 02:12 PM 2016
Of course there is. Its designed to keep me in the game as long as possible....but I will lose eventually
Ok, step two. So you agree (or not) that your method is no better than my 5 second system....the 2 4 6 system? Same end results, correct?
Ken
I fully understand and i fully grasp that systems will "lose" in the long run due to HE
However i have a good time creating different methods, using triggers, and setting a stop loss and win goal
I do believe some methods win more then others
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 22, 02:22 PM 2016
I do believe some methods win more then others
Although I agree with this, I am not suppose to. (I hope that made sense?)
A certain "decent" method (mine, Turner's etc.), should *NOT* last any longer than the 2 4 6 system...if its all the same...not my words.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 22, 02:22 PM 2016
Ok, step two. So you agree (or not) that your method is no better than my 5 second system....the 2 4 6 system? Same end results, correct?
Ken
Well...yes and no (cant believe I said that...I hate it)
It depends on your exposure to the HE as in casino frequency. My system keeps me in the game longer. That "longer" could be the rest of my life
If I was losing at the casino I wouldnt be going.
If I was there 24/7 playing your example...I would be dead.
I love the game.The most used software in my life is RX. I wont ever surpass that usage in my life.
Now.....if You include Casino plus RX....I bancrupt 5 years ago.
As TG said....thank god 90% of my losses were on RX
Quote from: Turner on Aug 22, 02:37 PM 2016
Well...yes and no (cant believe I said that...I hate it)
You see, it can be a tricky question, tricky wording, tricky answer etc.
I dont think its one size fits all but then again, we (all of us) need to be careful how posts are worded. Choose our words wisely.
Beat, will beat, can beat, was beat, might beat, not beat, never beat, decent, good, fair, fun, great etc.
In terms of results, every system is the same. Some are just more fun to play.
Is Mr J getting soft with his signature
Enjoy life my friends.
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 22, 01:58 PM 2016
...but according to others, this system is no better than picking birthdays AND short sessions mean nothing. Again, EVERYONE should finish the same?
Ken
Thanks. This is a very interesting question.
The point I have stated repeatedly is that M16 is a losing bet ( ie not a winning bet) as in the long term and played mechanically without discretion it will lose according to the house edge. I actually think the house edge on the rouletteplayers.org table is slightly greater because of the restriction regarding zero- it does not have the same flexibility in staking as the other 36 numbers, so is disadvantaged ( no splits available).
However (yes there is an escape clause) with use og effective timing ( ie when to start, stop, pause, attack, take profit, and to work with short cycle strategy ( ie slowly accumulate while in win cycle mode) then profits can accumulate, and I have demonstrated this on the leaderboard with three different variant approaches ( Bach, Oasis and Kubrick - I like music +film)- all show net profit over +90,000 units and are close to or are above rate of earning where profit accumulates at a rate of 1.0 or more ( best I could achieve was 1.7 while Kubrick was climbing in at about 150 spins).
This has been achieved through timing and recognising when a short cycle trend ( warm/ hot numbers and/or the MB 16 numbers hitting in a win cycle of hits every spin or every second spin).
The MB16 is a dumb bet ( becauseit is as many as 16 targets) but even that can be overcome by smart timing - knowing when to get in and get out.
Yes it may be a fallacy to use 'hit and run' without any understanding. With understanding you should stay when encountering a win cycle, and leave when encountering a loss/ corrective cycle.
It is actually very simple, but is slippery. I keep my sessions usually very short, because win cycles are shorter than correction cycles ( 16 numbers versus 21 numbers).
It has taken me months to more successfully polish my activities and yes there can still be slips. Kubrick lost 20,00 recently but was balanced by Oasis making 30,000 gain.
This table set up by Steve is a brilliant tool which we can use to test, experiment and polish.
So what I am showing is that no, everyone does NOT finish the same if you make good choices based on experimental ( empirical) evidence and principles consistently applied.
I try not to waste any winnings by frivolous or guess bets. These three positive accounts are carefully played and are managed fully within the rules of this game. I do not wait for obvious errors or faults in any program. I simply prefer to rely on 300 spin live spin session records. Also by keeping my sessions short I do reduce the risk of meeting one of those 'seamless' junctions between sessions. They are out there and I have previously encountered the result of crossing such a boundary with a progression or large bet exposure.
Also I largely now just flat bet with max unit values ( 100) on the table with straight, splits, and streets and I rarely play any outside table situations.
Hope that assists.
QuoteThat "longer" could be the rest of my life
Turner
But you cannot declare with certainty that every method would last as long as your method, not only because of different results, but also because not all methods have the same exposure.
In terms of exposure to house edge, betting only one number is the best, thus could keep you in the game longer, am I right?
But try to look the same bet in a different way, a dealer, not necessarily skillful, could fairly easily dodge a specific number/pocket for veeeery long time, in that case you'd broke before you know it.
Where is the longer now?!
If all numbers have same chance at any given time then why some of them hit more than average, while others appear less than average?
It's fact and not a theory, biased wheels is not the answer because we encounter the same phenomenon more less to all wheels.
Yes, I do have the answer...there is a universal bias it's being called ''law of thirds''.
It's useless if you cannot comprehend why this always happens , on every wheel, with every croupier, even with RNG's and mixed results from different days and/or casinos.
It's the only universal fact, disregard it and you'll be looking for wheels' biases and dealers' signatures, searching from one wheel/dealer to the next, from one casino to the next...
Wasting plenty of time by gathering thousands of results before you place a single bet, just eventually to find out that the particular wheel has been replaced or leveled, your favorite croupier has been replaced or no longer spins predictable patterns because their employers instructed him/her to spin with different power from spin to spin (softer/harder)...
Personally I don't want to spend so much time just to know if this is good or not for betting.
Besides by using all those previous spins ain't that what you preach as fallacy?!
So why you think when you are using previous spins it's not fallacy but when someone else is using them it is?
Don't you know that dealers are spinning differently from spin to spin thus the slightest of differences produces different outcomes, therefore your wheel's and/or dealer's profile is rendered obsolete from one spin to the next, let alone from one day to the next!
Oh how nice to find that a wheel produces 3 pockets more than average and to expect that the exact same pockets will continue approximately with the same frequency of hits for a month, 6 months, a year, forever!
Does this sounds realistic to you?!
Roulette devices are not exception because they are as good as the method(s) installed, so if a method is fallacious those roulette devices would produce automated fallacies.
When a profile based on past outcomes/measurements becomes obsolete because the conditions have changed it's nothing more than a fallacy.
If you can say that past outcomes can't determine future ones, then I could say with equal certainty that past measurements/performance can't determine future ones!
If a wheel and/or dealer produces predictable patterns, the casinos are the first to know it because they have staff which looks for such things 24/7 and takes any necessary measures against these rare incidents.
So don't fool yourselves that you know better the casinos' property than the casinos! Don't you dare to condemn the rest who decided to follow a different approach because you are no better!
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:53 AM 2016But you cannot declare with certainty that every method would last as long as your method, not only because of different results, but also because not all methods have the same exposure.
I didnt, I merely suggest that if you stay in the slow lane when the traffic looks dangerous, you will have a better chance to react
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:53 AM 2016In terms of exposure to house edge, betting only one number is the best, thus could keep you in the game longer, am I right?
That kinda thinking, yes
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:53 AM 2016If all numbers have same chance at any given time then why some of them hit more than average, while others appear less than average?
Because on a fair wheel, all numbers have the same chance to hit....aka normal distribution aka LOTT. The wheel has no memory and isnt thinking "listen 6, you have come out twice, Im gonna give the other guys a chance so it looks more even"
24 is the mean. Anything other than 24/13 has an increasing higher probability the higher the +/- SD
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:53 AM 2016Besides by using all those previous spins ain't that what you preach as fallacy?!
previous spins arnt your personal spins. You need to be "in" the game. ala' Turbo Genius
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:53 AM 2016Don't you know that dealers are spinning differently from spin to spin thus the slightest of differences produces different outcomes, therefore your wheel's and/or dealer's profile is rendered obsolete from one spin to the next, let alone from one day to the next!
Makes no difference. If the output is fair and random, its a fair wheel. Casinos check their wheels are random. I dont think dealers can influence that randomness. If they can, then the wheel output is bias.
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:53 AM 2016Oh how nice to find that a wheel produces 3 pockets more than average and to expect that the exact same pockets will continue approximately with the same frequency of hits for a month, 6 months, a year, forever!
Does this sounds realistic to you?!
Dont know, I didnt say that so I havnt thought about it.
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:53 AM 2016Roulette devices are not exception because they are as good as the method(s) installed, so if a method is fallacious those roulette devices would produce automated fallacies.
If you mean computers, then I know nothing about this subject. I wont comment on things that I havnt studied extensively.
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:53 AM 2016So don't fool yourselves that you know better the casinos' property than the casinos! Don't you dare to condemn the rest who decided to follow a different approach because you are no better!
Well it looks like its in some way directed at me, but I didnt imply anything like that.
BA....Im condemning no one.
I can only comment on what I know.
Not what I think, or guess, but what I know.
I know that humans love a good plot. A thick plot. The thicker the better
kens "OK" 3 numbers after odd isnt very thick a plot. So we say its rubbish. Its no Oceans 11 or Matrix. Its more a TV advert.
Then we have a complex system with LOTT and careful analysis with endless stats, in a beautiful narrative where we are in awe of its complexity. Its Oceans 11, The Matrix, Pulp Fiction. Complex, with a twist you will never get. We are intrigued.
But they are the same. Just people saying things on films, and when the credits go up, its over.
When you place a chip on the carpet, you are exposed to the HE which means you are in a negative expectation game. Doesnt matter how you arrived at the decision. The casino sees you place bets. They pay you less than they should if you win.
I love this game, but will only play it with what I just said firmly in my mind, as I play it.
Turner, you took personally everything I said, I was speaking in general because this topic is not your personal email, so everyone could read it.
Only my first paragraph was regarding your post, about exposure and endurance of bet selections.
The rest of my previous post intended to be directed towards bias,vb and rc players.
However, I appreciate your response which I find pretty sane.
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 06:41 AM 2016
Turner, you took personally everything I said, I was speaking in general because this topic is not your personal email, so everyone could read it.
Only my first paragraph was regarding your post, about exposure and endurance of bet selections.
The rest of my previous post intended to be directed towards bias,vb and rc players.
However, I appreciate your response which I find pretty sane.
A misunderstanding then...apologies. Anyhow, my points were clearer responding to a question even if it wasnt directed at me personally.
Thanks.... :thumbsup:
Quote from: Turner on Aug 23, 08:21 AM 2016
A misunderstanding then...apologies. Anyhow, my points were clearer responding to a question even if it wasnt directed at me personally.
Thanks.... :thumbsup:
You don't have to apologise for expressing your opinion in public, nothing wrong by doing so.
I've just clarified that it was not specifically for you the whole post.
Anyone could respond, just be my guest.
I was thinking about a casino tour around the world:
"On 23rd of October, 20:00 pm, BlueAngel will be playing at casino Ritz, London...on 27th of November, 21:00 pm, will be playing at Bellagio, Las Vegas...on 28th of November, 21:00 pm, BlueAngel will be at MGM,Las Vegas...on 29th of November at Caesars Palace...
Come to witness the unique experience which only BA knows how to share it generously!
See with your own eyes how does it feel to be the bearer of the HG!
Soon to a casino near you!
For the detailed schedule and general information visit our webpage...to taste just a slice of BlueAngel's action visit youtube channel...''
How about that?! :xd:
I would expect Blue Angel to be some lady stripper, reading the announce!
Quote from: NextYear on Aug 23, 09:31 AM 2016
I would expect Blue Angel to be some lady stripper, reading the announce!
Hmmm
It doesnt actually say "playing roulette" in his promo. :o
"kens "OK" 3 numbers after odd isnt very thick a plot. So we say its rubbish. Its no Oceans 11 or Matrix. Its more a TV advert.
Then we have a complex system with LOTT and careful analysis with endless stats, in a beautiful narrative where we are in awe of its complexity. Its Oceans 11, The Matrix, Pulp Fiction. Complex, with a twist you will never get. We are intrigued.
But they are the same" >>>
...and thats kinda my point. Its suppose to be ALL the same but sorry, I dont agree.
Ken
Quote...and thats kinda my point. Its suppose to be ALL the same but sorry, I dont agree.
Ken like 10
So what would you do if the dealer dodge yur 2 numbers for long time?
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:11 PM 2016
So what would you do if the dealer dodge yur 2 numbers for long time?
Lose...get pissed at dealer(s)...get drunk...chase Asian a**...get rejected from said Asian a**...go home...take care of it "myself"...wake up next day...evaluate what went wrong at the casino with method (if anything) and TRY and fix it.
Remember, sometimes *NOTHING* went wrong with the method. We are allowed to simply have a bad day. Its multiple bad days that get my attention.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 23, 12:25 PM 2016
Lose...get pissed at dealer(s)...get drunk...chase Asian a**...get rejected from said Asian a**...go home...take care of it "myself"...wake up next day...evaluate what went wrong at the casino with method (if anything) and TRY and fix it.
Remember, sometimes *NOTHING* went wrong with the method. We are allowed to simply have a bad day. Its multiple bad days that get my attention.
Ken
How many units is your win goal per session?
Where is the thin line between hit and run and profit target per session?
I believe the answer is in the relationship between bankroll and profit target, they have to be as much balanced as possible.
If you are ready to risk 1000 units in order to win 10 that's hit 'n' run, but if you risk 360 to win 100 is profit goal.
This is my interpretation, what's yours?
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 23, 12:36 PM 2016
How many units is your win goal per session?
Where is the thin line between hit and run and profit target per session?
I believe the answer is in the relationship between bankroll and profit target, they have to be as much balanced as possible.
If you are ready to risk 1000 units in order to win 10 that's hit 'n' run, but if you risk 360 to win 100 is profit goal.
This is my interpretation, what's yours?
My hits are $1,750
I shoot for 2K net, go home.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 23, 12:02 PM 2016.and thats kinda my point. Its suppose to be ALL the same but sorry, I dont agree.
Ken...I tend to adopt a view for research purposes
Like method acting.
Its pretencious to say the least.
But I find it better to analise if I adopt it
That way...some folks get animated and I learn a new angle.
Not saying I dont believe what I said. Just saying I learn more if I have to argue the point.
Often....I see my argument is rediculous and I wouldnt of thought that deep if I hadnt embraced the point.
Its how I learn.
Turner.....also remember, only one person so far (you) has answered my question. The real reason for that....they cant really say my 2 4 6 method sucks, then they have to answer for it.
I put Turbo at the top or near it. There is no way my 2 4 6 method (lol) is EQUAL to something of high value from Turbo (or myself), no way BUT I should be wrong I guess.
Ken
Ken...Its nice to have reasons why you bet a certain way
The problem is that a lot of people dont have a reason.
The method should test the reason..
Lets start at the lowest...which I consider chinese and taxi drivers at my casino.
They cover 20 or so numbers and lose thousands. Ive seen it.
Ive seen them win 1000s on 1 spin...and punch the air. They have no concept of the fact they are behind by 6 times what they won.
Its sad and painful.
You have to admit....no one here plays that way. Even kens OK system is leagues ahead in one fact.
Its being played for a reason.....misguided?...perhaps but it can be followed by better play
In my case...better play is total control and staying in the game longer.
Im not losing or I wouldnt be still doing this but...it seems in the back of my mind, theoretically, I am
I dont think I contribute to the casino " hold" but I am subject to the HE.
"I dont think I contribute to the casino " hold" but I am subject to the HE" >>
Very very good point. I have done a thread on this in the past. Quite a shame, little interest, again.
Ken
MORE people need to understand what the HOLD is. I'm embarrassed it took me as long as it did.
Ken
link:://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf
Quote from: Turner on Aug 23, 02:30 PM 2016
Ive seen them win 1000s on 1 spin...and punch the air.
The universal "YES!" in human body language
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 23, 10:18 PM 2016
The universal "YES!" in human body language
I had such a moment when dealer George from Dublinbet casino spun my number (only 1 number betting) an incredible 6 times in 8 spins!
Of course I've rewarded him with generous tips, all the rest of my casino experiences are more like business as usual.
... and that, kids, is why you must stay away from LSD.
Actually
I do see merit in a 4 or 5 step strategy of diffrrerent bets using a progression
It would be 4 or 5 methods going to next method on a loss
One could even say it is not a progression because you are changing methods
4 or 5 solid bet selections. If lose goto method 2. If lose goto method 3. Etc
Dont even use the word progression
Simply say if lose method 1, goto method 2. If lose method 2 goto method 3
The bad progression word doesnt have to be used
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 23, 07:47 PM 2016
MORE people need to understand what the HOLD is. I'm embarrassed it took me as long as it did.
Ken
As far as I know its the amount the casino wins by punters replaying their winnings over and over
I guess its the HE in action for punters who keep going even if they seem to be up and have had a good night. Its about 20%
So, heres something I just thought of. If everyone played carefully with lots of control and used systems that kept them in the game longer than they stayed at the casino, the Casinos would shut because the HE isnt enough to make profit and pay the wages and overheads.
Never thought of it, and its not like me to say something without studying it.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 24, 01:45 PM 2016
Actually
I do see merit in a 4 or 5 step strategy of diffrrerent bets using a progression
It would be 4 or 5 methods going to next method on a loss
One could even say it is not a progression because you are changing methods
4 or 5 solid bet selections. If lose goto method 2. If lose goto method 3. Etc
Dont even use the word progression
Simply say if lose method 1, goto method 2. If lose method 2 goto method 3
The bad progression word doesnt have to be used
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=14249.msg121249#msg121249
Quote from: psimoes on Aug 24, 01:58 PM 2016
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=14249.msg121249#msg121249
Thanks. I just noticed i posted in the wrong thread
Did not mean to post that here
But thanks for the link
"the Casinos would shut because the HE isnt enough to make profit and pay the wages and overheads" >> Correct Turner. The casinos RELY on the HOLD. A great link I posted, straight outta Las Vegas, its a good read.
Ken
QuoteThey cover 20 or so numbers and lose thousands. Ive seen it.
Probably what you saw was the ''Kavouras bet'', 20 numbers chaotically around the wheel/table, every win provides different profit and every loss the same deduction of chips.
From the first day I've read it till now still scratching my head about what's so special about it?!
Am I missing something guys????!
Perhaps one needs great skill in order to place random bets! :lol:
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 24, 03:57 PM 2016
"the Casinos would shut because the HE isnt enough to make profit and pay the wages and overheads" >> Correct Turner. The casinos RELY on the HOLD. A great link I posted, straight outta Las Vegas, its a good read.
Ken
Thanks for bringing this junk into our attention!
I was always wondering what's the casino hold, but not any longer thanks to you!
Quote from: Blue_Angel on Aug 26, 10:38 AM 2016
Probably what you saw was the ''Kavouras bet'', 20 numbers chaotically around the wheel/table, every win provides different profit and every loss the same deduction of chips.
From the first day I've read it till now still scratching my head about what's so special about it?!
Am I missing something guys????!
Perhaps one needs great skill in order to place random bets! :lol:
He claimed that is intended for the connoisseur gambler, its price only 300 Euros, heck of a bargain!
Quote from: Turner on Aug 23, 02:30 PM 2016
Ken...Its nice to have reasons why you bet a certain way
The problem is that a lot of people dont have a reason.
The method should test the reason..
Lets start at the lowest...which I consider chinese and taxi drivers at my casino.
They cover 20 or so numbers and lose thousands. Ive seen it.
Ive seen them win 1000s on 1 spin...and punch the air. They have no concept of the fact they are behind by 6 times what they won.
Its sad and painful.
You have to admit....no one here plays that way. Even kens OK system is leagues ahead in one fact.
Its being played for a reason.....misguided?...perhaps but it can be followed by better play
In my case...better play is total control and staying in the game longer.
Im not losing or I wouldnt be still doing this but...it seems in the back of my mind, theoretically, I am
I dont think I contribute to the casino " hold" but I am subject to the HE.
QuotePlumbers, cabbies and alike?
Do you have a list of hard working people you want to insult ?
Turner
QuoteProbably what you saw was the ''Kavouras bet'', 20 numbers chaotically around the wheel/table, every win provides different profit and every loss the same deduction of chips.Perhaps one needs great skill in order to place random bets! :xd:
BlueAngel
Quote from: MrJ on Aug 21, 05:05 PM 2016So if a couple certain numbers were HOT from one grouping, the next grouping, we are starting over (sort of)?
Ken if you use stoopid, ROFL, it would not matter as betting numerically
Heres a ?
when i started playing 30+ years ago and you had to wait 48hrs to get a members card,before letting you in, so you could decide if you did not want to play, why the wait, you wanted to play.
The time of a spin was anywhere between 2/3 minutes, so why is it now 30 seconds if not busy.
Me, i think they know the bigger the spread of numbers you will win.
Here we go again, non-hit when you start are 37, so being the heavier, naughty word (DUE).
Quote from: nottophammer on Nov 03, 08:18 AM 2016Here we go again, non-hit when you start are 37, so being the heavier, naughty word (DUE).
Spin No. Repeat? Non-hit count Progression Result Bank
1 13 37
2 24 36
3 25 35
4 1 34
5 20 33
6 5 32
7 2 31
8 31 30
9 11 29
10 27 28
11 35 27 1 9 9
12 31 R 26 1 -26 -17
13 27 R 26 2 -52 -69
14 33 26 3 30 -39
15 32 25 2 22 -17
16 15 24 1 12 -5
17 0 23 1 13 8
18 8 22 1 14 22
19 18 21 1 15 37
20 1 R 20 1 -20 17
21 19 20 2 32 49
22 7 19 1 17 66
23 1 R 18 1 -18 48
24 0 R 18 2 -36 12
25 10 18 3 54 66
26 6 17 2 38 104
27 1 R 16 1 -16 88
28 28 16 2 40 128
29 29 15 1 21 149
30 22 14 1 22 171
31 26 13 1 23 194
32 25 R 12 1 -12 182
33 20 R 12 2 -24 158
34 4 12 3 72 230
35 12 11 2 50 280
36 30 10 1 26 306
37 26 R 9 1 -9 297
38 25 R 9 2 -18 279
39 34 9 3 81 360
40 8 R 8 2 -16 344
41 12 R 8 3 -24 320
42 23 8 4 112 432
43 17 7 3 87 519
44 36 6 2 60 579
45 11 R 5 1 -5 574
46 30 R 5 2 -10 564
47 28 R 5 3 -15 549
48 6 R 5 4 -20 529
49 5 R 5 5 -25 504
50 21 5 6 186 690
51 18 R 4 5 -20 670
52 1 R 4 6 -24 646
53 17 R 4 7 -28 618
54 36 R 4 8 -32 586
55 5 R 4 9 -36 550
56 19 R 4 10 -40 510
57 9 4 11 352 862
58 16 3 10 330 1192
59 14 2 9 306 1498
60 11 R 1 8 -8 1490
KTF made the 50+ units
But look 36 0x have come in 60 spins