Most of you know birthday paradox. And most of you might have dismissed its application in roulette.
Does anyone know what is the most popular birthday in europe and US? October 1st week. Why? Because hmm, christmas and new years eve. So something strange happening on new years eve which is making the odds tilt and make it better than 1/365 for days in october 1st week. So going back to the birthday paradox, does it tilt the odds of two people having the birthdays on October 1st week? I dont know the answer, but an interesting question to ask and think about. Where's Bayes. I could use his help.
Changing this to roulette, if there is a particular event out of a set of events that occurs in a higher frequency, is it highly likely that we are able to find a repeat of that event faster than expectation? Hmm.. good to think and thats what am thinking right now. Trying to find an event in a set of events that is highly likely to happen.
:yawn: :-\ :-\
I have discussed the bday paradox at length before with regards to Roulette, but could never figure out it's application.
With regards to your question we could look at the cycle length outcomes of Dozen Cycles: CL1, CL2 and CL3. I think these have been referred to as blue balls, green balls and red balls - each not equally likely. One type of balls representing CL2 always has a higher, faster chance of occurring than CL1 or CL3.
Although CL2 is "king", all CLs are comparable in terms of cost/payout. And I doubt that is the correct application of birthday paradox. It was hypothesized that one event has more chance of repeating when part of a larger group of events that repeat, but I doubt that as well. My guess is that the application is with parallel games that target the same event, hence more support.
tricky one...as we have in our room on constant 37 numbers
Its not really a paradox. Just maths.
If you go on Manchester City FC website and look at the first team, excluding loaned out players, 24 players can be seen and Aleix Garcia and Kevin De Bruyne both have the birthday 28th June 8)
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 11, 04:46 PM 2017
Most of you know birthday paradox. And most of you might have dismissed its application in roulette.
Does anyone know what is the most popular birthday in europe and US? October 1st week. Why? Because hmm, christmas and new years eve. So something strange happening on new years eve which is making the odds tilt and make it better than 1/365 for days in october 1st week. So going back to the birthday paradox, does it tilt the odds of two people having the birthdays on October 1st week? I dont know the answer, but an interesting question to ask and think about. Where's Bayes. I could use his help.
Changing this to roulette, if there is a particular event out of a set of events that occurs in a higher frequency, is it highly likely that we are able to find a repeat of that event faster than expectation? Hmm.. good to think and thats what am thinking right now. Trying to find an event in a set of events that is highly likely to happen.
:yawn: :-\ :-\
Your on a higher thought plain than me, but i'll tell you where to find your repeat.
In spins 1-10. if spins 1-10 don't produce, you've been unlucky. So spins 11-20 should give one of 1-10, it's a bit of a Vaddi problem. I'll leave it there >:D
Just now on MPR plop's on there, these 12 spins end +45
33
35
15
19
24
27
8
26
14
9
20
24
Interblock ?
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 11, 05:18 PM 2017
With regards to your question we could look at the cycle length outcomes of Dozen Cycles: CL1, CL2 and CL3.
Falkor the problem with them is that they are not equal events. One needs one bet where as others need more. Hence the risk also varies. I am actually thinking there should be something which will carry the same payout but odds being different.
Quote from: maestro on Jan 11, 05:19 PM 2017
tricky one...as we have in our room on constant 37 numbers
I know.. I know.. indeed tricky one. I have tried various things like cycles, stitching bets, VdW - nothing seem to be working here as none of them has been able to break the payout-odds balance. Tough nut!
Quote from: Turner on Jan 11, 05:50 PM 2017
Its not really a paradox. Just maths.
If you go on Manchester City FC website and look at the first team, excluding loaned out players, 24 players can be seen and Aleix Garcia and Kevin De Bruyne both have the birthday 28th June 8)
Hmm semantics. I believe it is called birthday problem rather than a paradox these days. Gunners has Lucas Perez and koscielny. Chelsea have victor moses and Nathaniel Chalobah. We could go on and on I guess.
What about turbos method of numbers exceeding expectations. Payout is same but do they have different odds as they hit more than the expectation?
a roulette event highly likely to happen
and above expectation
well we would all like to find that
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 11, 07:04 PM 2017Payout is same but do they have different odds as they hit more than the expectation?
many say "yeah, but that doesnt change the odds so the HE will get you"
No one ever says "and here is how my method changes the odds"
Quote from: Turner on Jan 12, 04:56 AM 2017many say "yeah, but that doesnt change the odds so the HE will get you"
No one ever says "and here is how my method changes the odds"
May be because such a method doesn't exist :-\ :-\
I am seriously looking at the following data point about repeaters. Most of the repeaters happen within the last 18 unique numbers. Defining "most" - only in approximately about more than 3500 repeaters do we have an exception and that is a large number. One side of me says that the odds of certain numbers are different from certain other numbers. Other side says that "huh! how can that be". But however, I truly believe because these repeaters happen within 18 unique numbers, "when" the repeat happened is something that might have the potential to be the method, where the payout is going to be 35:1 but the odds are going to be nearly half or a little more than 1/37. As always the issue is to find a practical working method and I think am struggling there.
<One side of me says that the odds of certain numbers are different from certain other numbers. Other side says that "huh! how can that be> if it was me i would listen to this side...but people are not the same..
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 12, 06:16 AM 2017
May be because such a method doesn't exist :-\ :-\
I am seriously looking at the following data point about repeaters. Most of the repeaters happen within the last 18 unique numbers. Defining "most" - only in approximately about more than 3500 repeaters do we have an exception and that is a large number. One side of me says that the odds of certain numbers are different from certain other numbers. Other side says that "huh! how can that be". But however, I truly believe because these repeaters happen within 18 unique numbers, "when" the repeat happened is something that might have the potential to be the method, where the payout is going to be 35:1 but the odds are going to be nearly half or a little more than 1/37. As always the issue is to find a practical working method and I think am struggling there.
What do you mean by last 18 uniques? Most numbers repeat on spin 7-8 right? Max is about spin 25. So of course more will fall on the 7-8 side of 18 compared to the 25 side of 18.
In all my tests numbers have always been distributed evenly regardless of whether it was 4 (my Son's age) or my birthday (27 of next month), so I don't believe in superstition as the tests prove the maths to be correct.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 12, 01:51 PM 2017What do you mean by last 18 uniques?
When a repeat happens, it happens on a number that is within the last 18 unique.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 12, 01:51 PM 2017Most numbers repeat on spin 7-8 right?
It depends on where you start the counting from . I start counting back from the repeat to the place where the number appeared before.
Yeah, you did show that counting from a repeat keeps the stats in order.
I still don't understand the last 18 unique part though... even if you retrack on a repeat there will seldom be 19-25 uniques compared to 1-18 before the next repeat occurs.
Priyanka doesn't mean 18 unique in a row, just the last 18 unique numbers.
13
6
6
10
28
10
16
24
13 <-next number is 13, so a repeat happened within the last 6 unique
Quote from: ati on Jan 12, 03:47 PM 2017Priyanka doesn't mean 18 unique in a row, just the last 18 unique numbers.
Yup! Thanks ati
say we have numbers
12
4
32
23
3
8
9
26
7
4
here is repeat on number 4...and is spin 10 so it has been checked that 7 or 8 is pick on curve i always wanted to check if there is some other stats on repeated number...the other 4 >and is second spin<....if we pull some data would we find say spins at the begining say from spin 2 to spin 8 more likely to contain our number..jus thinking
and a bit of drink..
Maestro - This info might help you. This is the info on if a repeat happens how likely is it to happen within the next x spins. This data is based on close to 19000 repeaters. One is proving through data, other is a simple math associated with it. As the number of spins increase, the odds of a repeat happening keeps on increasing and there is a wider array of numbers in which repeat can occur. So the odds on repeat happening with the number we started with decreases and that is what essentially translates to the information which is further proven by the data below.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2017/01/13/temp_605289.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/MVbV)
Pri, these stats are old news. Why not just acknowledge what I said earlier rather than keep discussing this endlessly? Everyone here already knows the basic repeat number curve - but it doesn't help us progress nor understand the application of the birthday paradox.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 13, 09:01 AM 2017Why not just acknowledge what I said earlier rather than keep discussing this endlessly?
what did you say earlier. If you can remind. Maestro asked for stats and I gave him.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 13, 09:01 AM 2017
doesn't help us progress nor understand the application of the birthday paradox.
Why do you assume I have info that can help. The whole reason I started this thread is to see if we can do some collective discussion to see if there is a way forward here. I am struggling to find a practical application.
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 13, 08:33 AM 2017
Maestro - This info might help you. This is the info on if a repeat happens how likely is it to happen within the next x spins. This data is based on close to 19000 repeaters. One is proving through data, other is a simple math associated with it. As the number of spins increase, the odds of a repeat happening keeps on increasing and there is a wider array of numbers in which repeat can occur. So the odds on repeat happening with the number we started with decreases and that is what essentially translates to the information which is further proven by the data below.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2017/01/13/temp_605289.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/MVbV)
Hi Pri,
Are these stats based on the principle that rrbb used in his thread about positions?
So using all the 37 numbers. Only position 1 till 20 did repeat? That means 3854 times you had a number hit back 2 back?
Quote from: RayManZ on Jan 13, 09:57 AM 2017
So using all the 37 numbers. Only position 1 till 20 did repeat? That means 3854 times you had a number hit back 2 back?
That is correct Ray. I tried multiple datasets and they provided more or less similar distribution. Anything above 17 has been on exceptional basis.
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 13, 09:24 AM 2017
what did you say earlier. If you can remind. Maestro asked for stats and I gave him.
Why do you assume I have info that can help. The whole reason I started this thread is to see if we can do some collective discussion to see if there is a way forward here. I am struggling to find a practical application.
You said most repeats occur in the last 18 uniques; I just reminded you that this is simply related to the repeat curve stat - but you (and others) continued to confuse the situation.
Going forward you said before you had studied all non-probabilistic methods for 2 years, including additional stats based methods, which could potentially aid in a non-random strategy. You've touched on the birthday paradox before, but it was all too brief. Before we can find a practical application I think we first need to be clear on how this relates to Roulette exactly? In Roulette, what represents the birthdays and what represents the people? I would ask the same question about the theorem of friends and strangers: how to translate that based on Roulette terms? You found a comparison between Porrondo's Paradox and roulette using an example where 2 losing games makes a winning, but I don't think the dynamic decisions relating to the bankroll were applicable? The Birthday Paradox may be transferable to Roulette, but I just don't have the imagination to figure out what is what let alone find an application.
Leaving bdayp aside for now (whatever it may resemble in Roulette terms) and looking at the repeat curve (that's what this discussion has evolved into): we could track the uniques of both the standard random stream and the positions stream. Both streams would have to repeat before 25 uniques show and if they each share common numbers then that would reduce what we need to cover. So that's one idea that comes to mind.
thanks for the effort,Priyanka....seems one more brick wall to me..hats off for the effort
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 13, 11:43 AM 2017So that's one idea that comes to mind
Thanks for that idea. Let me do some work to see how to implement it.
Quote from: maestro on Jan 13, 02:23 PM 2017seems one more brick wall to me
He he
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 13, 08:33 AM 2017
Maestro - This info might help you. This is the info on if a repeat happens how likely is it to happen within the next x spins. This data is based on close to 19000 repeaters. One is proving through data, other is a simple math associated with it. As the number of spins increase, the odds of a repeat happening keeps on increasing and there is a wider array of numbers in which repeat can occur. So the odds on repeat happening with the number we started with decreases and that is what essentially translates to the information which is further proven by the data below.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2017/01/13/temp_605289.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/MVbV)
I know some will disagree with me here, but what about using a trigger.? Wait until 8 spins with no repeat before starting...also combine this with a parachute progression to keep the bets low to start.
Quote from: Scarface on Jan 13, 03:46 PM 2017I know some will disagree with me here, but what about using a trigger.? Wait until 8 spins with no repeat before starting..
Scarface. Unfortunately it doesnt help. Let me explain why. See the following spins.
23
12
1
13
24
32
35
36
2
21
3
8
9
17
15
33
14
20
14
We had a repeat after 18 spins. But the position of the repeat is 2. Waiting for a trigger doesnt help in this scenario. I wish!
what if we do groups like that
1,8,15,22,29,36
2,9,16,23,30
3,10,17,24,31
4,11,18,25,32
5,12,19,26,33
6,13,20,27,34
7,14,21,28,35
so in 8 spins(if no zero group will repeat and this is 100%) in 6 spins we get 91% repeat as whole group) so say in 4 spins we will have 20 or so numbers to choose from for repeat...that could be looked at..
Fancy name for trying to find a repeat.
Plenty known on where it might appear, or when could/should appear, so math ain't going to beat this game,too many variables. At best your chance comes from your,repeat,your knowledge of the game.
Good knowledge, example Celticknits studied and knew his game, some idiot like General just said curve fitting, but i'd say go read Celtic's comments again, you might just missed something the 1st time around.
Thanks for all the ideas so far. I have been working on an idea to see whether it is even possible to overcome the repeater odds and eliminate some apples based on stats that repeat happens in the recent numbers. Will appreciate any help in sharpening this and testing it further.
So basically it goes like this. One event is a combination of two spins. The first spin takes into consideration High and Low and the second spin takes into consideration the dozens. So there are six events possible in total.
Event 1 â€" Low and Dozen 1
2 â€" Low and Dz2
3 â€" Low and Dz3
4 â€" High and Dz1
5 â€" High and Dz2
6 â€" High and Dz3
The play is going to be playing for a repeat happens. As soon as one of the events repeat, we restart. Also on a win, we go back three spins without a repeater to look for events to bet on. A bit difficult to explain, but playing wise it goes like below.
15
32 - Event 3. Event 3 cannot occur in the next spin. So no bet on next spin.
6 - Event 4. Event 3 is possible in next spin. Bet on 3rd dozen.
21 â€" Event 2. Lost -1
22 â€" Event 5. Lost. -2
22 â€" Event 5. Won. -1
18 â€" Event 5. +1
7 â€"Event 1. +1
26 â€" Event 3. 0
16 â€" Event 5. +2
29 â€" Event 3. +3
28 â€" Event 6. +2
8 â€" Event 4. 0
9 â€" Event 1. -1
14 â€" Event 2. -2
11 â€" Event 1. -1
3 â€" Event 1. +1
Just tried Mortagon spins from dublin bet.
First file +13[reveal]
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2017/01/17/temp_166818.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/MuuK)[/reveal]
Second file +19
[reveal](link:://:.pichost.org/images/2017/01/17/temp_383572.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/MBZB)[/reveal]
I think that's probably Pri's best post since 2015! Some really good ideas there that I never thought of before... could come in useful. :thumbsup:
Priyanka
I actually get something you posted :thumbsup:
Quote from: Turner on Jan 17, 10:50 AM 2017actually get something you posted
Long time :)
as your here goldrosen i'll give you the finger as you dont post, Wa
Quote from: nottophammer on Jan 17, 11:51 AM 2017
as your here goldrosen i'll give you the finger as you dont post, Wa
It's someone we know who is a dual poster and pretends to have bad English and sticks around to be annoying
Just ignore it
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Jan 17, 11:54 AM 2017
It's someone we know who is a dual poster and pretends to have bad English and sticks around to be annoying
Just ignore it
I went to a conspiracy event once. Many average British guys all queued up to take turns asking questions. Surprisingly, each of them was totally incoherent! Small wonder that Q&A session was never released. And the conspiracy happened to be dead true - yet it's unlikely most of these guys could tell either way - they were just there for the sake of any conspiracy regardless of the ones that they really understand or not.
Many conspiracies hold true.
Just one I can't seem to level with.....
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 17, 06:54 AM 2017
15
32 - Event 3. Event 3 cannot occur in the next spin. So no bet on next spin.
6 - Event 4. Event 3 is possible in next spin. Bet on 3rd dozen.
21 â€" Event 2. Lost -1
22 â€" Event 5. Lost. -2
22 â€" Event 5. Won. -1
18 â€" Event 5. +1
7 â€"Event 1. +1
26 â€" Event 3. 0
16 â€" Event 5. +2
29 â€" Event 3. +3
28 â€" Event 6. +2
8 â€" Event 4. 0
9 â€" Event 1. -1
14 â€" Event 2. -2
11 â€" Event 1. -1
3 â€" Event 1. +1 < Hi Priyanka, sorry but this should be 0 I think? Thanks. :)
Quote from: goldrosen on Jan 17, 02:21 PM 2017Hi Priyanka, sorry but this should be 0 I think? Thanks. :)
Yup
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2017/01/18/temp_512520.jpg) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/Mjks)
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 11, 04:46 PM 2017
Most of you know birthday paradox. And most of you might have dismissed its application in roulette.
Does anyone know what is the most popular birthday in europe and US? October 1st week. Why? Because hmm, christmas and new years eve. So something strange happening on new years eve which is making the odds tilt and make it better than 1/365 for days in october 1st week. So going back to the birthday paradox, does it tilt the odds of two people having the birthdays on October 1st week? I dont know the answer, but an interesting question to ask and think about. Where's Bayes. I could use his help.
Changing this to roulette, if there is a particular event out of a set of events that occurs in a higher frequency, is it highly likely that we are able to find a repeat of that event faster than expectation? Hmm.. good to think and thats what am thinking right now. Trying to find an event in a set of events that is highly likely to happen.
:yawn: :-\ :-\
Is this 2 events? Bit of a Turbo, 2 players sit down, player one is Priyanka with 9 random numbers, that she spaced 3#'s apart, then theres Notto waiting for the remaining 9 non-hit, that happen at spin 45. Notto has 2 bets and is +18, he could be +38, but he remembers what RG said, as soon as in profit stop. So Notto's won.
Looking at the spins Pri could have walked +27,1st spin.
All 60 spins +108, using the random 9#'s. So in ROTT( riddle of the trot) these random 9#'s lost. On the sheet the 3 individual games end +63, these games are supposed to be live spins on MPR
Remember these #'s are used in interblock, and that you can walk with + units, so Goldrosen again you can F--- o-- >:D
Why go to so much trouble looking for events. Here's today on jackpot, out of interest the presenter of the show gave cold number, zero 263 spins, 11 spins later zero, quiet a few won on it, came out 3 times in 81 spins.
So KTF wins, Flatbet last remaining 9 non-hit wins.
? on minimum bet for E/C +4 on remaining non-hit colours, if you cover Mr G +10.
It's easy, no maths
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2017/01/18/temp_257153.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/Mqw7) |
for those who can't see the remaining 9 non-hit
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2017/01/18/temp_439409.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/MHdQ) |
Quote from: nottophammer on Jan 18, 04:07 AM 2017Why go to so much trouble looking for events
:) Notto - KTF Works. 9 non-hit wins. We all get it and admire those trots. Dont worry, we will pick the money there.
But for some it is a little more than playing 27 numbers and getting down, and sitting endlessly to get to 9 non-hits. Some dont want to follow trots. Playing for fun as ghost would say. It is easy for me to go with friends and throw a chip on the dozen than stretch my muscles to spread bet and focus on the drink in hand, and may be have a chat with the dealer and people around.
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 18, 05:28 AM 2017:) Notto - KTF Works. 9 non-hit wins. We all get it and admire those trots. Dont worry, we will pick the money there.
See ya
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 17, 06:54 AM 2017
Thanks for all the ideas so far. I have been working on an idea to see whether it is even possible to overcome the repeater odds and eliminate some apples based on stats that repeat happens in the recent numbers. Will appreciate any help in sharpening this and testing it further.
So basically it goes like this. One event is a combination of two spins. The first spin takes into consideration High and Low and the second spin takes into consideration the dozens. So there are six events possible in total.
Event 1 â€" Low and Dozen 1
2 â€" Low and Dz2
3 â€" Low and Dz3
4 â€" High and Dz1
5 â€" High and Dz2
6 â€" High and Dz3
The play is going to be playing for a repeat happens. As soon as one of the events repeat, we restart. Also on a win, we go back three spins without a repeater to look for events to bet on. A bit difficult to explain, but playing wise it goes like below.
15
32 - Event 3. Event 3 cannot occur in the next spin. So no bet on next spin.
6 - Event 4. Event 3 is possible in next spin. Bet on 3rd dozen.
21 â€" Event 2. Lost -1
22 â€" Event 5. Lost. -2
22 â€" Event 5. Won. -1
18 â€" Event 5. +1
7 â€"Event 1. +1
26 â€" Event 3. 0
16 â€" Event 5. +2
29 â€" Event 3. +3
28 â€" Event 6. +2
8 â€" Event 4. 0
9 â€" Event 1. -1
14 â€" Event 2. -2
11 â€" Event 1. -1
3 â€" Event 1. +1
Priyanka, I wanted to ask you more about how you are playing for repeats here and in general.
Above you seem to be playing for the next available repeat? If event 3 is possible "next spin" then you will play it. But is it really best practice to play for a repeat to happen on the very next spin?
With Dozen Cycles you would often play CL2:
1... bet 2+3 (uniques)
12... bet 1+2 (repeat)
With CL2 you are betting the uniques on the 1st spin; you are only playing for the actual repeat on the 2nd spin? Could it be that betting 2+3 is also playing for a different repeat other than the main CL2 event?
If you were to take the same approach above and play the "next available repeat" when using cycles then you would inevitably be playing CL1 - but of course you always ignore that; with the above idea, however, you are always betting the next available repeat on the next spin:
"Event 3 cannot occur in the next spin. So no bet on next spin."
Why the contrast in playing for repeats...?
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 19, 08:42 AM 2017Above you seem to be playing for the next available repeat?
In this example am playing for repeats and not next available repeat.
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 19, 08:58 AM 2017
In this example am playing for repeats and not next available repeat.
OK thanks, so do you think it's important we choose "what repeat(s)" to play for and "what spin(s)" to bet them - the "what" and the "when"? In other words you don't plan to always catch the repeat that you are playing on the next available spin?
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 19, 09:05 AM 2017don't plan to always catch the repeat that you are playing on the next available spin
It is immaterial what I plan. Stats say repeat can happen anytime and targeting only the next spin is going to be very narrow window.
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 19, 09:26 AM 2017
It is immaterial what I plan. Stats say repeat can happen anytime and targeting only the next spin is going to be very narrow window.
But don't the stats have something to say about number repeats - that they will happen on average around spins 7-8 (see "number curve" chart) even though we will break even over the long term (or lose to the house edge) regardless of how narrow (7-8) or broad (6-9) our window? If we were to play the repeat on the next available spins, say 1-8, then wouldn't we at least catch it quicker rather than risk losing the opportunity through virtual spins?
Going back to cycles you appear to only play for the dozen to repeat on spin 2 or 3:
CL1 CL2 CL3
Instead of playing for the dozen to repeat on spin 1 you appear to be playing the sleepers instead? If the repeat can happen anytime why target only spins 2-3? Are you using the repeat curve stats to aid you? With EC > Dozen shouldn't we also at least leave out the first spin in our broad attack window? Would that reduce apples?
You advised never to bet next spin - only next event (repeat). Is playing for 2 repeats to happen in advance also essential? In other words: are we perhaps wasting our time just targeting 1 repeat at a time?
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 19, 09:53 AM 2017that they will happen on average around spins 7-8
Look at the stats I earlier posted in this thread which you dismissed as old story. May be you will have some answers for the questions you are asking or may be not.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 19, 09:53 AM 2017If we were to play the repeat on the next available spins, say 1-8, then wouldn't we at least catch it quicker rather than risk losing the opportunity through virtual spins?
Yes.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 19, 09:53 AM 2017Going back to cycles you appear to only play for the dozen to repeat on spin 2 or 3:
Falkor - lets not reopen random thoughts topic. I said no more hinting and no more clues and it is fair to write and explain what I claim. Hope you will respect that and not keep digging things that am not prepared to answer from that thread. Also, this will be the 100th time I will be saying, every video posted there is to explain a concept and not necessarily right or wrong way of playing things.
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 19, 09:53 AM 2017You advised never to bet next spin - only next event (repeat).
I dont understand the question here. If you can rephrase it may be i will be able to understand and answer this question.
Sorry Pri - I was looking at this topic through a Non-Random lens... since it's about playing for repeats I never placed it into a separate pigeonhole. Concepts are nothing without context.
What does BP mean I wonder...?
"Now coming back to parallel universes, as drazen has asked about it, the whole thing of birthday paradox(problem) works because of these parallel universes. A person on its own will have a lesser probability of finding a birthday match as opposed to a group finding its match as there are more number of pairs involved."
I think we can remove the mask from Mr. Birthday - he represents the main event: the repeat.
As for who represents the Group (Mr. and Mrs.) finding the same repeat... that is related to my question which needs re-phrasing - perhaps with the word "parallel".
QuoteLook at the stats I earlier posted in this thread which you dismissed as old story. May be you will have some answers for the questions you are asking or may be not.
I guess looking back at old uniques helps as they have more chance than usual for a repeat.
Removing the mask... (link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=gYHLDjq1Hz0)
Nice topic :thumbsup:
Quote from: praline on Jan 19, 06:49 PM 2017
Nice topic :thumbsup:
And you're a nice guy, Praline! I like you!! :thumbsup:
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 17, 06:54 AM 2017Thanks for all the ideas so far. I have been working on an idea to see whether it is even possible to overcome the repeater odds and eliminate some apples based on stats that repeat happens in the recent numbers. Will appreciate any help in sharpening this and testing it further.
So basically it goes like this. One event is a combination of two spins. The first spin takes into consideration High and Low and the second spin takes into consideration the dozens. So there are six events possible in total.
Event 1 â€" Low and Dozen 1
2 â€" Low and Dz2
3 â€" Low and Dz3
4 â€" High and Dz1
5 â€" High and Dz2
6 â€" High and Dz3
The play is going to be playing for a repeat happens. As soon as one of the events repeat, we restart. Also on a win, we go back three spins without a repeater to look for events to bet on. A bit difficult to explain, but playing wise it goes like below.
15
32 - Event 3. Event 3 cannot occur in the next spin. So no bet on next spin.
6 - Event 4. Event 3 is possible in next spin. Bet on 3rd dozen.
21 â€" Event 2. Lost -1
22 â€" Event 5. Lost. -2
22 â€" Event 5. Won. -1
18 â€" Event 5. +1
7 â€"Event 1. +1
26 â€" Event 3. 0
16 â€" Event 5. +2
29 â€" Event 3. +3
28 â€" Event 6. +2
8 â€" Event 4. 0
9 â€" Event 1. -1
14 â€" Event 2. -2
11 â€" Event 1. -1
3 â€" Event 1. +1
What if instead of dozens we will bet on numbers from our dozen that are in last 18 uniques?
That's a very interesting idea, praline! Never thought of that before... I have considered parachuting to numbers and I've also considered looking at pre-existing uniques when parachuting - just not in terms of stitching dozens to numbers in that fashion.
Could dual dependency exist here in terms of the next dozen repeat and next CL repeat happening at the same time?
(link:s://s29.postimg.org/61husdnon/image.png)
I'm attempting to play the Birthday Paradox using the dual dependency created between various dozens and associated inner and outer cycle constants - all have to repeat as part of a series of events with different probabilities that are dynamically changing.
(link:s://s24.postimg.org/o6rv68o45/constants.png)
INNER CYCLE CONSTANTSCL = Cycle Length
d = Defining Element (Dozen)
o = Order
OUTER CYCLE CONSTANTSOCL = Outer Cycle Length
OO = Outer Order
ODC = Outer Defining Cycle
ODCL = Outer Defining Cycle Length
ODD = Outer Defining Element (Dozen)
ODO = Outer Defining Order
For example... Outer Cycle Length is dependent on the Inner Cycle Length:
| 108393 | 38% | Average |
| 124802 | 44% | |
| 52405 | 18% | |
| 285600 | | |
| | |
| 29806 | 34% | CL1… |
| 41482 | 47% | |
| 17684 | 20% | |
| 88972 | | |
| | |
| 69983 | 44% | CL2… |
| 64329 | 41% | |
| 23065 | 15% | |
| 157377 | | |
| | |
| 8604 | 22% | CL3… |
| 18991 | 48% | |
| 11656 | 30% | |
| 39251 |
CL1... more chance for
OCL2 followed by
OCL3CL2... more chance for
OCL1CL3... more chance for
OCL3 followed by
OCL2
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 21, 11:48 AM 2017
For example... Outer Cycle Length is dependent on the Inner Cycle Length:
| 108393 | 38% | Average |
| 124802 | 44% | |
| 52405 | 18% | |
| 285600 | | |
| | |
| 29806 | 34% | CL1… |
| 41482 | 47% | |
| 17684 | 20% | |
| 88972 | | |
| | |
| 69983 | 44% | CL2… |
| 64329 | 41% | |
| 23065 | 15% | |
| 157377 | | |
| | |
| 8604 | 22% | CL3… |
| 18991 | 48% | |
| 11656 | 30% | |
| 39251 |
CL1... more chance for OCL2 followed by OCL3
CL2... more chance for OCL1
CL3... more chance for OCL3 followed by OCL2
Hi falkor,
maybe you give an example what this numbers mean.
I programmed the cycles with Mathematica and could do a statistics check.
Greets
Just posted and got it. :lol:
CL2 > CL2 is most common sequence for 2 dozen cycles (inner) and it happens to be a repeat CL too to close the outer cycle @ OCL1. So when we get:
CL2... then there's more chance for outer CL1 because we expect CL2 > CL2 most of the time. And the stats confirm.
Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 17, 06:54 AM 20179 â€" Event 1. -1
14 â€" Event 2. -2
11 â€" Event 1. -1
3 â€" Event 1. +1
can i ask why we bet is like this
9 â€" Event 1. -1
14 â€" Event 2. -2
11 â€" Event 1. -1
event repeated, count back three spins, and we have events 2 and 1 BUT next bet is made only for event 1
3 â€" Event 1. +1
Most of you know birthday paradox. And most of you might have dismissed its application in roulette.
Does anyone know what is the most popular birthday in europe and US? October 1st week. Why? Because hmm, christmas and new years eve. So something strange happening on new years eve which is making the odds tilt and make it better than 1/365 for days in october 1st week. So going back to the birthday paradox, does it tilt the odds of two people having the birthdays on October 1st week? I dont know the answer, but an interesting question to ask and think about. Where's Bayes. I could use his help.
Changing this to roulette, if there is a particular event out of a set of events that occurs in a higher frequency, is it highly likely that we are able to find a repeat of that event faster than expectation? Hmm.. good to think and thats what am thinking right now. Trying to find an event in a set of events that is highly likely to happen.
:yawn: :-\ :-\
Its been over a year since this was posted, and I've only just come across it.
Is this something you're still interested in?
I too think that the birthday paradox/problem can be applied, and have run some tests, and would be interested in knowing your thoughts regarding my thinking and ideas.