Well, now? i just wanted to say, no matter what betselection, system or progression (or flatbet) you'll ever use;
-you'll always have losing sessions,...
so what it comes down to in the End no matter what, IS *moneymanagement*
so, we focus on that, we be much better off?? But this is the big secret also?
Are you willing to share your moneymoneymanegement secret? I'd say that secret may be much more worth than any system/strategy posted on the forum so far? :question:
Money management is actually virtually useless. Its just different size bets. It doesn't help you win but can be a plan to limit impulse gambling.
What actually works has been explained many times, and ignored.
Quote from: Steve on Sep 23, 01:37 AM 2017What actually works has been explained many times, and ignored
YES, but even with the best advice,(wheelsectors, flatbet, betselection/system) we heard it 100 times yes? STILL we will lose, sometimes,..so,? moneymanagement is NOT useless,? You could waste *alot* of money chasing losses for an example, without a good stoploss... you heard it all before,? How do Real players play in real conditions, real casinos, real money? i'd like to know?....still i doubt they'll share they moneymanagement secret/wisdom, because that's half the way to their success, without proper moneymanegement you'll lose no matter what sooner or later. That's my opinion :/
I like to have six bankrolls worth of
chips for the system I plan to execute.
As for the Grail imo, you want
the highest accuracy (top priority)
You also want a system that's easy to
play *and one you won't get bored with :)
Quote from: Steve on Sep 23, 01:37 AM 2017
Money management is actually virtually useless. Its just different size bets. It doesn't help you win but can be a plan to limit impulse gambling.
What actually works has been explained many times, and ignored.
Wrong.
QuoteYES, but even with the best advice,(wheelsectors, flatbet, betselection/system) we heard it 100 times yes? STILL we will lose
Yes because you aren't understanding or applying what I'm saying. You arent changing your approach.
QuoteYou could waste *alot* of money chasing losses for an example, without a good stoploss
Stop loss is also useless unless youre playing for fun and don't want a pissed off wife.
When your bet selection is random accuracy, stop loss can prevent further loss.... or, it can prevent you from winning big on an upcoming wining streak. Stop loss is nonsense.
QuoteHow do Real players play in real conditions, real casinos, real money? i'd like to know?....still i doubt they'll share they moneymanagement secret/wisdom, because that's half the way to their success, without proper moneymanegement you'll lose no matter what sooner or later. That's my opinion :/
APs don't rely on money management. They have an advantage so the more they play, the more they win.
There still are uses for money management but not like you are saying
Quote from: steven1212 on Sep 23, 04:04 AM 2017
Wrong.
Actually I'm not. But id like to be proven wrong. Show me mathematical proof. Don't tell me math doesn't matter. Its saying reality and reason doesn't matter.
Think if your bet selection is random, why will stopping after a specific amount lost be better? Besides less play with a losing system being more loss.
Explain it in mathematical terms.
Quote from: Steve on Sep 23, 04:04 AM 2017APs don't rely on money management. They have an advantage so the more they play, the more they win.
There still are uses for money management but not like you are saying
Alright, thanks anyway for the reminder and the inspiration Steve, AGAIN i have to re-consider. I have a couple of wheel based systems, now i have to go back and see what i can do,... i read your article about AP and i think it was interesting and well written;
link:s://:.roulettephysics.com/roulette-advantage-play/
If you read the whole site it will help. Look past anything for sale and focus on the articles that explain why an approach won't work
When your bet selection is random accuracy, stop loss can prevent further loss....
or, it can prevent you from winning big on an upcoming wining streak. Stop loss is nonsense.-Steve
If you at a point where you have to stop
betting to minimize losses there is a problem.
Try to determine what the problem is:
could be the system (most of the time),
could be the wheel isn't easy to beat,
could be the croupier spinning too fast
or thumping the ball instead of rolling it.
Could be the system is underfunded.
Could be tiredness or noise/distractions.
Here's my Penny Pentagon.
I use it my way, but you can use it your way, whatever that might be.
In any casino game, you need to change the odds. In roulette you must increase accuracy of predictions. That's all you need to focus on. The rest like stop loss and money management are a very distant second.
How change the odds? There are many known effective ways. Most logical is build on those. for example, make vb easier and more practical. They really, really are not that difficult. The word physics turns people off but it just means "why and how".
And there are even more undiscovered ways it may be possible to change odds.
Almost everyone is testing full systems. Its the wrong approach. Instead just test accuracy of bet selection. And do large scale testing with something like rx.
Large scale doesn't mean "amount of spins you'll never play". It means "better knowing the truth"
Quote from: Taotie on Sep 23, 06:43 AM 2017
Here's my Penny Pentagon.
I use it my way, but you can use it your way, whatever that might be.
Looks like a cactus cross section. Why am i not surprised?
lol.
Quote from: Steve on Sep 23, 07:06 AM 2017
In any casino game, you need to change the odds. In roulette you must increase accuracy of predictions. That's all you need to focus on. The rest like stop loss and money management are a very distant second.
How change the odds? There are many known effective ways. Most logical is build on those. for example, make vb easier and more practical. They really, really are not that difficult. The word physics turns people off but it just means "why and how".
And there are even more undiscovered ways it may be possible to change odds.
Almost everyone is testing full systems. Its the wrong approach. Instead just test accuracy of bet selection. And do large scale testing with something like rx.
Large scale doesn't mean "amount of spins you'll never play". It means "better knowing the truth"
You've spotted the flaw, Steve. You hit the nail on the head.
Using supposed wheel bias techniques to find flaws in a wheel.....that what i find not really studying the game of roulette at all. Revolutions and amount of spin placed on the ball.....this analysis i dont see as consistant at all....how do you know every spin is going to be the same with high degree of acuracy.
The roulette wheel isn't roulette?
And exactly what data supports your assumptions? please be detailed.
Ps, if you "assume" something you'll almost always be wrong.
Yes I understand. But if there was wheel bias where you are tracking many spins then dont you think this would all be noticed and tracked in the actual casino with them making the adjustment which im sure they would have regular maintenance. Let me know if im on the wrong track.
You are a clever bloke Steve, and I have no doubt that Roulette computers work.
What do you think of what Caleb Johnson says of how much he wins constantly by exploiting biased wheels.
Man...the world has changed since Russel Barnhardt and his "How to beat the wheel"
Am I missing something? You track 1000's of spins on a particular table for days/weeks to look for numbers that are hitting above average due to not being random because of a wonky wheel, or a bit of fluff in a fret?
Is this real? Do Casinos not check the fitness of their wheels? Do they not swap wheels around? Are wheels not better than in Barnhardts days? (circa 1992)
Whats your opinion?
Yes they do Turner
In the summer went to pick the boys up at Luton, so popped in grosvenor at midday and on the wheel is the spirt level, shows they look after their wheels, so wheel watching load of old bollox, a thing of the past
Quote from: ignatus on Sep 22, 09:34 PM 2017
Are you willing to share your moneymoneymanegement secret? I'd say that secret may be much more worth than any system/strategy posted on the forum so far? :question:
Alrelax is one of the most prolific posters over at betselection.cc. He is a veteran baccarat player who has some idiosyncratic ideas on money management that you might find interesting (especially, in relation to
the EC bets in roulette) -- here are two relevant threads for you to peruse:
link:://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/1-3-2-6-yes-it-is-not-new-but-most-successful-m-m-for-me/
link:://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/13-13-13-summation/
Quote from: Turner on Sep 23, 07:46 PM 2017
You are a clever bloke Steve, and I have no doubt that Roulette computers work.
What do you think of what Caleb Johnson says of how much he wins constantly by exploiting biased wheels.
Man...the world has changed since Russel Barnhardt and his "How to beat the wheel"
Am I missing something? You track 1000's of spins on a particular table for days/weeks to look for numbers that are hitting above average due to not being random because of a wonky wheel, or a bit of fluff in a fret?
Is this real? Do Casinos not check the fitness of their wheels? Do they not swap wheels around? Are wheels not better than in Barnhardts days? (circa 1992)
Whats your opinion?
Ive never seen him specify an amount he wins playing biased wheels. Caleb has a very good knowledge of wheel manufacturing, defects, design flaws etc. See link:s://:.roulettephysics.com/roulette-wheel-bias/ for the basics of wheel bias analysis. I havent seen Caleb's book so dont know how much more in depth it is.
Every wheel has some bias. Casinos detect bias with limited software and approaches. They easily detect obvious anomalies like an obvious biased number. But many biased numbers occur only in specific circumstances, and modern bias analysis software doesnt account for these circumstances. This makes it more viable to detect and expoit bias before the casino even knows about it. Because he player can do things the casinos software doesnt.
Its made easier by watching and listening for signs of bias. Some of this is explained on my site.
But even with visual bias confirmation, bias play is a very tough grind. You could spend a week to scout 50 wheels and perhaps 5 have potential with visual confirmation. Next you need enough data. And that could be another week for 1 wheel and 1 player. With team play you could cover all 5 wheels in less time but that means profits are split in 5.
You might be left with one reasonable wheel with a measely 3% edge. With $100 units and play for 24hrs straight, thats probably about $1500 profit. For all that time, and team resources, its just not viable.
And to make it worse, even if you succeed, the casino staff might be onto you very early, then all your time is wasted and you wont even get your $1500 per day. Even if you got it, you cant play day after day without being detected.
Back 30 years ago it was very different. Many casino staff didnt have much idea about wheel bias. To them a bias player would look like someone playing lucky numbers. Plus there were far more biased wheels around. So turning $2000 into $1m in a year was possible. But doung that now wpuld take so much more work that it would be more viable to get a 9-5 job.
In contrast, a computer player can get a 30-50% edge on virtually any wheel they find, within an hour. Even if you didnt like the idea of computers, vb or dealer signature will do better than bias analysis. More wheels would be suitable, the edge would be higher, and its far quicker.
Overall, bias is a waste of time unless you are surrounded by many casinos with old technology and very lazy staff. Even then there are far more viable options.
Also my software has lots of spins and detailed data about wheels added daily by players. This makes bias detection very easy. We do still find biased wheels. But the edge is still crap compared to other methods. It doesnt make sense to choose a much more time consuming method that has a lower edge and more limitations.
Cheers Steve. Its as I thought
I thinking keeping the wager percentage the same throughout the session is a very safe bet. It depends on your system. I assume most people's average bet is between 1-5% of bankroll. If your bankroll is $1000 and you're betting 5%, then that would be $50 per bet. If your bankroll increases to $1200, then wager would be $60. If it decreased to $800, then wager would be $40.
Basically, stay at a constant percentage of bankroll. Variance is gonna be in your favor or against you. If variance is on your side, wagers will increase and wins will be exponential. If variance is against you, then wagers become lower and lower and will protect you against huge losses.
Wins will be big, but losses will be limited
Hi Scarface,
This type of percentage system I have known to be successfully employed in horseracing betting also.
Thanks,
A.
Just look at the worse case scenerio your system can have in a session. By a applying the "constant percentage" money management, determine how much you can lose.
But also look at the best case scenerio you can have in a session and see what the wins would look like. The wins will offset the loses from the worse case.
We cannot control variance, but we can control our wagers. I think money management is the most important aspect of this game
Quote from: Scarface on Sep 24, 02:05 PM 2017I think money management is the most important aspect of this game
agreed. Thank you Scarface :)
Here is one of the many sites advocating this plan:
link:://:.raceadvisor.co.uk/the-5-pro-cumulative-staking-plan-%E2%80%93-ignoring-this-will-cost-you/
A.
Quote from: atlantis on Sep 24, 02:16 PM 2017
Here is one of the many sites advocating this plan:
link:://:.raceadvisor.co.uk/the-5-pro-cumulative-staking-plan-%E2%80%93-ignoring-this-will-cost-you/
A.
Thanks for the link to that great article.
The following quote from that article should be etched in gold:
"Firstly, without any shadow of a doubt you should never use a staking plan that recommends increased stakes AFTER losses! This method of betting really is the quickest way to losing an entire bank and heading to the poorhouse. When losing runs happen, they can very often manifest themselves in to strings. Strings of losses when using any type of ‘chase your losses’ staking plan will lead to disaster.
What you actually require to remain in the game, long term whilst maximising profits and minimising losses is a staking plan that correlates to the size of your betting bank. One that increases as you win and decreases should you lose."
Quote from: Steve on Sep 23, 01:37 AM 2017Money management is actually virtually useless
Remember this?? LOL ;D
Thanks for the link Atlantis! This is exactly what I'm talking about, and probably says it alot better than I did. Seems to be a very safe money management system for all types of betting
KimoLiRoulette said Apr 17, 2017
Quote:
Julian Budd
"I wondered when playing at the $25 chip stakes, at what point would you quit if things didn't go as planned? What would your stop Loss be?"
Kimo Li
"Also, with a 25.00 chip stake, playing 09 numbers, the stop loss would be -900.00."
Quote from: Mortagon on Sep 24, 05:53 PM 2017
KimoLiRoulette said Apr 17, 2017
Quote:
Julian Budd
"I wondered when playing at the $25 chip stakes, at what point would you quit if things didn't go as planned? What would your stop Loss be?"
Kimo Li
"Also, with a 25.00 chip stake, playing 09 numbers, the stop loss would be -900.00."
Mort - cut the Kimo crap.
Quote from: ignatus on Sep 24, 02:31 PM 2017
Remember this?? LOL ;D
What you mock was actually the truth. MM is virtualy useless. Just because a couple tell what you want to hear don't mean its true.
Quote from: celescliff on Sep 25, 02:44 AM 2017What you mock was actually the truth. MM is virtualy useless
Well? yes perhaps? if you have a losing system then no MM can help you. But if you have a *decent* system , with 70%-80% winrate i think you may consider a good MM-plan, to minimize losses. I don't believe in roulette winning long-term, therefore, i believe in hit-and-run, ...short sessions... AND point is playing this way, (depending on the particular system) IS to find a good stoploss and wingoal, that's My moneymanagement plan,--but you know me-- i've always played with negative progressions before? it's only Now im tryin' Flatbet, seriously. and betting the wheel.? I think Scarface's & Atlantis MM 5%-BR Bet was clever,...??
Well, even though it is virtualy useless my personal favourite is one caleb suggested for flat bet systems, which is to give 1% of your br for each loss and up as you go.
If you start with 1000 units, 10 units should be on the mat, 2000 units 20 units on the mat and so on.
Quote from: celescliff on Sep 25, 06:21 AM 2017my personal favourite is one caleb suggested for flat bet systems, which is to give 1% of your br for each loss and up as you go.
If you start with 1000 units, 10 units should be on the mat, 2000 units 20 units on the mat and so on
Yes, seems to be a great MM-plan; I only am curious how that would work in real play, for an example Raise/lower bets after each session? OR rase/lower bets as you play (depending on how long sessions you play) ?
im not clear about this, but i will experiement with this, .....
Thanks :)
Quote from: ignatus on Sep 25, 06:58 AM 2017
Yes, seems to be a great MM-plan; I only am curious how that would work in real play, for an example Raise/lower bets after each session? OR rase/lower bets as you play (depending on how long sessions you play) ?
im not clear about this, but i will experiement with this, .....
Thanks :)
Sorry, my last post was a little bit of a rush.
The 1% is the
maximum you should have on the mat, so if you have a 1000 unit bankroll, you don't need to have 10 units on the mat, but the maximum amount should be.
Also, you don't need to have those milestones to raise either. I personally don't use a win stop but lets say you have a 1000 unit BR and want to reach to 1500 units before you quit, when you are up to 1100 units then 11 units is the maximum you can have the on the mat. 1200 units then you have 12 units max and so on. If you get back to 1000 you shouldn't go back to 10 units max, but still have 12 units max. You can also withdraw that 500 units and go back to 1000 unit and start over with 10 units max, so you don't need consistently raise your units.
But with this way, you must have atleast 100 straight losses before your BR is tanked.
I said it was for flat systems only, but you
could use a progression as well, as long as your progression, negative or positive, don't pass that 1%.
Hope you understand now more what I mean. ;)
Quote from: celescliff on Sep 25, 08:26 AM 2017Hope you understand now more what I mean.
Alright, now i understand better^^ thx :)
I normally keep wagers between 1-2%
There're 2 kinds of players, those that view MM as an important part of their system and those that use very simple MM.
The latter group is the minority.
So how do their system gain an edge over the casino with simple MM, flatbet or 1step progression at most ?
By the accuracy of their betselection.
How then do their system gain such accuracy ?
The use of physics and/or math.
The benefit of betselection with high accuracy are 3fold -
1. Low risk exposure,
2. Low bankroll as a result, and
3. Avoid risk of ruin from black swan events.
The million dollar question is -
IS THIS POSSIBLE ?
Your perspective to this question naturally place you together with the the pool of players that guide your thoughts and corresponding action towards casino games.
I always say
REDUCE THE GAMBLE IN GAMBLING.
We are not gamblers and we don't gamble.
Stick to this mindset always, always.
I play in the short run and will not experience the long run - then i am dead.
I start to win when i start to use Regression Up & Pull and keep my winnings when i lose.
If you can avoid giving all the profits back to the casino when you lose - then you should do just that.
When you strike and win big you push for more using positiv progression and walk home with a big smile on your face
Cheers
Quote from: ego on Sep 26, 12:57 PM 2017
I play in the short run and will not experience the long run - then i am dead.
The random flow is
not time dependent! If you're unlucky you face hell
before you are dead.
ego and the highwayto hell
Quote from: ego on Sep 26, 12:57 PM 2017
I start to win when i start to use Regression Up & Pull and keep my winnings when i lose.
:thumbsup:
When to use Up and Pull
link:://roncen.websitetoolbox.com/post/when-to-use-up-and-pull-4252481?highlight=up+pull
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17139.msg158619#msg158619
the General
Quote:
„My best advice to some of you young guys that are gambling is to go back and read some basic money management "
principals by
John Patrick and other old timers.“
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17112.msg166838#msg166838
the General
Quote:
„1. When you have a working method/system, again, the more you play, the more you should win.
2. If your method/system works, then you should stop playing accountant. Stop thinking in terms of "one session" and consider all sessions within a month combined as one on going session. (Yes, you still need to keep records.) Your goal though is to play for as long as possible as long as the playing conditions are good. Focus on the game, not the accounting. A losing session is irrelevant. It's no different than a losing spin in the big picture.
3. HOWEVER.. If you're relying on variance to win, then you need to quickly realize that you're just gambling! You are relying on luck to win and you should quit whenever you can get ahead (Follow
John Patrick's advice.)“
Quote from: iggiv on Jul 08, 08:17 PM 2012
Most if not all legitimate pro gamblers (John Patrick, Bret Morton and others -- well known) advocate hit-n-run. No one will tell u -- "sit in casino and play till u have power to...
If u r OK with it, then play 3 days in a row, that's ok".
they know very well, everyone who knows about gambling know that u should stop as soon as possible at the right moment...and not to play for too long...
that's what hit-n-run is about...
Topic: Regression betting on trends
link:://roncen.websitetoolbox.com/post/show_single_post?pid=1273555742&postcount=15&forum=0