Let's talk repeaters! I know this is a favorite topic here, and one I've been studying alot lately. Seems like there are tons of systems based on it, and to me as a system player it makes sense.
Everyone here is familiar with the Law of Third. Nothing magical about it. Its basic probability. Another name for this is the Law of Unequal Distribution. Basically, on average, you will have about a third of the numbers hit within expectation. The rest will be a roughly equal split between above expectation or no hit at all.
I ran a test of 3 rounds of 36 spins each for a total of 108 spins. The worse performing number had 0 hits. The best had 6. The worse performing 4 numbers combined had a total of 3 hits. The best performing 4 numbers had a total of 20 hits. Big difference!
Had an idea that I have not tested yet, just wanted to get some input, maybe some of you have tried this. Why not follow the front runners? Start off betting 1 hits....then when you get first repeater, start betting 2 hits only...once you get the first 3 hit, bet 3 hitters only, etc.
For example, starting out, play whatever number comes out. If you get a hit in first 8 spins, you're in profit, start over (1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8=36). If you do not get a hit in first 8 spins, wait until you get the first repeat, the play that number....add every new repeat to your wager until you get your first 3rd repeater. Once you get your first 3rd repeater, play it only...and add each new 3rd repeater until you get your first 4th repeat.
The gaps between repeats will vary. Going from 1st repeat to 2nd may be a long gap...but 2nd to 3rd the gap may close. Gaps have variance just like everything else! You may see up to 5 or 6 numbers hit there 2nd repeat before the 3rd repeat shows...however you may only see 2 numbers with a third repeat before the 4th shows up.
I look at it like a race. There may be a couple numbers stand out in the beginning, only to be passed by others. But eventually, you will have a couple that takes the lead. Playing each new crossing will allow you to stay with the front runners. In 3 rounds of 36 spins, there will be at least 1 number that will hit anywhere from 6 to 9 times....while there will be 1 or 2 numbers that will not hit at all!
In my most recent testing, a third of the numbers underperformed expectation in 3 rounds (108 spins)
Quote from: Scarface on May 22, 04:40 PM 2018
Let's talk repeaters! I know this is a favorite topic here, and one I've been studying alot lately. Seems like there are tons of systems based on it, and to me as a system player it makes sense.
Everyone here is familiar with the Law of Third. Nothing magical about it. Its basic probability. Another name for this is the Law of Unequal Distribution. Basically, on average, you will have about a third of the numbers hit within expectation. The rest will be a roughly equal split between above expectation or no hit at all.
I ran a test of 3 rounds of 36 spins each for a total of 108 spins. The worse performing number had 0 hits. The best had 6. The worse performing 4 numbers combined had a total of 3 hits. The best performing 4 numbers had a total of 20 hits. Big difference!
Had an idea that I have not tested yet, just wanted to get some input, maybe some of you have tried this. Why not follow the front runners? Start off betting 1 hits....then when you get first repeater, start betting 2 hits only...once you get the first 3 hit, bet 3 hitters only, etc.
For example, starting out, play whatever number comes out. If you get a hit in first 8 spins, you're in profit, start over (1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8=36). If you do not get a hit in first 8 spins, wait until you get the first repeat, the play that number....add every new repeat to your wager until you get your first 3rd repeater. Once you get your first 3rd repeater, play it only...and add each new 3rd repeater until you get your first 4th repeat.
The gaps between repeats will vary. Going from 1st repeat to 2nd may be a long gap...but 2nd to 3rd the gap may close. Gaps have variance just like everything else! You may see up to 5 or 6 numbers hit there 2nd repeat before the 3rd repeat shows...however you may only see 2 numbers with a third repeat before the 4th shows up.
I look at it like a race. There may be a couple numbers stand out in the beginning, only to be passed by others. But eventually, you will have a couple that takes the lead. Playing each new crossing will allow you to stay with the front runners. In 3 rounds of 36 spins, there will be at least 1 number that will hit anywhere from 6 to 9 times....while there will be 1 or 2 numbers that will not hit at all!
In my most recent testing, a third of the numbers underperformed expectation in 3 rounds (108 spins)
I did study this gameplay up over a few hundred hours. It is best to let the 1 hit numbers go!
Start with the repeaters and build from there. not from the first spin until you get your first repeat.
Every now and then you will have your first repeat in the 20+ spinline, you will be way behind then when you gonna start with your second race, the repeats.
So start with repeats and don't play longer then spin 300-350. at that point, the numbers that stayed behind are trying to catch up with the front runners, making the gaps between hits much longer.
Just some good advice, from someone who is second nature is repeaters ^-^
Quote from: jekhb76 on May 22, 04:52 PM 2018
I did study this gameplay up over a few hundred hours. It is best to let the 1 hit numbers go!
Start with the repeaters and build from there. not from the first spin until you get your first repeat.
Every now and then you will have your first repeat in the 20+ spinline, you will be way behind then when you gonna start with your second race, the repeats.
So start with repeats and don't play longer then spin 300-350. at that point, the numbers that stayed behind are trying to catch up with the front runners, making the gaps between hits much longer.
Just some good advice, from someone who is second nature is repeaters ^-^
Thanks jekhb for the input. I, personally would play the first 1 hit numbers if I seen no repeat in the last 8 spins. If no repeat in last 8, I will play up to 8 numbers. HOWEVER, if no hit in the first 8 I will stop....then wait for the first repeat and start betting only repeats at that point
Quote from: Scarface on May 22, 04:57 PM 2018
Thanks jekhb for the input. I, personally would play the first 1 hit numbers if I seen no repeat in the last 8 spins. If no repeat in last 8, I will play up to 8 numbers. HOWEVER, if no hit in the first 8 I will stop....then wait for the first repeat and start betting only repeats at that point
Yes, that's indeed a better option to start with. :thumbsup:
I encourage some to test this if they have not before. What number is the 1st repeater? The 2nd? The 3rd? Did one of the first 3 1 repeaters become a 3rd repeater? Did one of the first 3 repeaters become the first 4th repeater?
Also, test the spreads! What is the difference of best performing number vs worse in 36 spins? 72 spins? 108 spins?
Follow those front runners! Keeps the variance low, and keeps the number of wagers low.
Quote from: Scarface on May 22, 05:04 PM 2018
I encourage some to test this if they have not before. What number is the 1st repeater? The 2nd? The 3rd? Did one of the first 3 1 repeaters become a 3rd repeater? Did one of the first 3 repeaters become the first 4th repeater?
Follow those front runners! Keeps the variance low, and keeps the number of wagers low.
I will lend you in a secret.
Most of the time (90-95%) The first 2 numbers that become a repeat (2) are most of the time the first to become a 3.
Test it. :thumbsup:
Another suggestion might be to limit chasing front runners until a certain spin count (maybe 3 cycles or 108 spins). Or either limit chasing frontrunners until you hit a certain number of repeats (maybe 6 to 9).
I just tested this again since my last post. The first repeat I got was on #13. The first 2nd repeater was also 13...so was the 3rd, 4th, etc. 13 stayed the frontrunner. In less than 60 spins, 13 hit 6 times.
Quote from: jekhb76 on May 22, 05:07 PM 2018
I will lend you in a secret.
Most of the time (90-95%) The first 2 numbers that become a repeat (2) are most of the time the first to become a 3.
Test it. :thumbsup:
Jekh, maybe limiting our wages to no more than first 3 will give good results. I don't know, but will be worth testing. From previous test, seems like most of the time it's one of the first
Quote from: Scarface on May 22, 05:28 PM 2018
Jekh, maybe limiting our wages to no more than first 3 will give good results. I don't know, but will be worth testing. From previous test, seems like most of the time it's one of the first
Correct. Good observations. :thumbsup:
As you said, you need to re-track/re-start after X-number of repeats. Mr.J's 'catch the 8-train' is one of the best systems when it comes to repeaters/hotnumbers, i think, i did some testing in RX, (and tried to bet the 2-3 hottest numbers for a longer time, BUT that didn't work so well... after it go beyond X-numbers of repeats... (it's only in the beginning these "hot numbers" are "hot"), then they fall asleep , im most cases
So 'catch the 8 train' ---Let's say, BET first number hit 3 times, Now you wait for a Hit (or a second hotnumber hit 3 times, -that will be bet also- and so on, every number hit 3 times are bet UNTIL you get 1 hit a (number hittin 4 times) Now , you remove all bets and bet that single 4-repeater--- (and repeat procedure) bet all number hit 4 times until you get a hit...a 5-repeater and so on....
Al Capone; scarface
This is what i used on MPR, it's just bet from spin 1, bet the 4 hottest.
Stakes 1x's at 1 units; R1 at 5 units; R2 at 25 units, the Turbo 1,5,25 had 75 on #19 :thumbsup:
I set the game at 1000 units like MPR, so it got close to bust, but i got up to 20000 units on MPR then blew the lot by betting more than the 4 hottest, i had too many #'s with 100 unit and instead of stopping at 14000 i just carried on, needed to be able to bet bigger units
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/05/22/temp_152129.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/srLcB)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/05/22/temp_220747.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/srrO9)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/05/22/temp_182126.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/sr4RZ)
Ignatius, thanks I will have to check that system out soon! Have you had success with it?
Nottophammer, does your progression go from 1 to 75? Too steep for me! I prefer a strategy that recovers in 2 or 3 hits with less progression. I think it can be done easily with repeaters. Just need a good bet selection with few numbers
Notto,
Why did you quit at spin 49? Why only 49 spins in your graph? Why not run it for 10k spins, or 100k spins?
If this is an RNG wheel, then what's the difference between a hot number and a cold number...meaning why would a hot number be more likely to hit than a cool one?
Quote from: The General on May 22, 07:45 PM 2018Why did you quit at spin 49? Why only 49 spins in your graph? Why not run it for 10k spins, or 100k spins?
Because he will never play that many spins in his lifetime. Duh. Dont you get it??
Quote from: The General on May 22, 07:45 PM 2018If this is an RNG wheel, then what's the difference between a hot number and a cold number...meaning why would a hot number be more likely to hit than a cool one?
Because.
Quote from: Steve on May 22, 08:01 PM 2018
Because he will never play that many spins in his lifetime. Duh. Dont you get it??
Because.
I suspect certain system testers are in curve fitting denial mode.
Quote from: nottophammer on May 22, 06:03 PM 2018
Al Capone; scarface
This is what i used on MPR, it's just bet from spin 1, bet the 4 hottest.
Stakes 1x's at 1 units; R1 at 5 units; R2 at 25 units, the Turbo 1,5,25 had 75 on #19 :thumbsup:
I set the game at 1000 units like MPR, so it got close to bust, but i got up to 20000 units on MPR then blew the lot by betting more than the 4 hottest, i had too many #'s with 100 unit and instead of stopping at 14000 i just carried on, needed to be able to bet bigger units
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/05/22/temp_152129.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/srLcB)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/05/22/temp_220747.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/srrO9)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/05/22/temp_182126.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/sr4RZ)
4 numbers is too much! Don't bet More then the 2 hottest.
Try this......
Forget the 1s.
Start your bet when you Have your First repeater and place 1 unit on it.
When the second repeater Comes, place also 1 unit on it. Continue Spinning with the same chip value on the two bets until a number becomes a 3. When hit on one of your numbers , and in profit, Keep the chip value the same and start also with 1 unit on the 3. If you didn't get a hit on your numbers and a Different number becomes a 3 l, raise your chip value with 2. So now you Have 2 units on the First 3. When a second 3 Comes place also 2 units on it. Repeat......
1e 2 repeat 1 unit until hit or when another nr becomes a 3.
2 units on first 2 3s... And so on.
Bet First two repeaters only.
Spin until a hit on one of these two.
When hit and i'm profit, start with the one 3 and add a second 3 when it Comes. Again, only betting now is the First two 3s.
When hit and in profit, continue with playing 1 unit on the one number that became a 4 and add second 4 when it Comes. Etc etc.
When a number hits and it is not yours, bet only that number with now 2 units and add a second one of the same hit value as it Comes. Repeat......
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7. Stop.
Start again with tracking until a new number becomes a 2. And repeat.
To my knowledge this is the best way to play repeaters. You can use a higher progression ofcourse when. Number gets hit, but this is for education only.
catch the 8 train excel...input numbers on left yellow column at box 5...choose progression...flat...profit target etc..when to bet etc after so many repeats
catch the 8 train splits...same way to use as above but with built in virtual losses you can choose before betting
forgot to attatch
Quote from: jekhb76 on May 23, 02:05 AM 2018
Bet First two repeaters only.
Spin until a hit on one of these two.
When hit and i'm profit, start with the one 3 and add a second 3 when it Comes. Again, only betting now is the First two 3s.
When hit and in profit, continue with playing 1 unit on the one number that became a 4 and add second 4 when it Comes. Etc etc.
When a number hits and it is not yours, bet only that number with now 2 units and add a second one of the same hit value as it Comes. Repeat......
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7. Stop.
Start again with tracking until a new number becomes a 2. And repeat.
To my knowledge this is the best way to play repeaters. You can use a higher progression ofcourse when. Number gets hit, but this is for education only.
jekhb76
I just posted a document in MPR, betting for repeats, but with a win rate of 1.10 i'm now back to 1265 on leaderboard.
Not the above way played on R-sim
Repeaters/gaps, I must admit are my
favorite, also series and singles bets are good.
One of the best ways to play repeats/gaps is with splits. The attack should be on positions (looking back) 1,2,3,4,5. or on
positions 5,6,7,8,9(optional 10). There are
triggers to decide which to bet and when to bet. Add to this good MM/progression and WMTL (win more than lose). Also can
add to the bet 2 or 3 hot numbers.
Katilla, I've been experimenting alot with series and singles too. Just not ready for real money on that yet.
When playing positions, do you play the unhit positions?
Quote from: Scarface on May 23, 02:56 PM 2018
Katilla, I've been experimenting alot with series and singles too. Just not ready for real money on that yet.
When playing positions, do you play the unhit positions?
Hi Scarface, take a look at this based on singles/series :
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=19239.0
And yes i play unhit positions , i focus more on the 5......10.
Well,
just ran a macro overnight on repeaters. 15k cycles.
Here are the results.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/07/05/temp_914595.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2MiEF)
How to read this:
Say we look at 4-peaters.
Appeared on average at spin 55. There were 3x 3-peaters on average when the 4-peater appeared.
10-peater: appears on average at spin 192, with 2x 9-peaters when it came.
You'll see max, min, median value also.
Averages:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/07/05/temp_715375.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2MgHA)
Curves of n-peaters appearing y-times at x-spin:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/07/05/temp_999830.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2Mces)
So, really, no point putting money on too many nrs when chasing repeaters.
FYI
Right, so you see the pattern.... after 1 repeat it takes longer to get to the 2nd repeat and so on... If you lose the 1st repeat the outlook isn't any better for the 2nd+ repeat. Too much BS and hype surrounding hot numbers.
This was ''for your information'' purpose.
Use the info as you wish.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jul 05, 08:51 AM 2018
This was ''for your information'' purpose.
Use the info as you wish.
Thanks for taking the time to test. Good stuff! I agree with you, that there is no point in betting too many numbers, and this is how I play. Personally, I dont like the super aggressive approach of playing all repeats and drastically raising wagers. When playing 2s to become 3, I'll limit the amount of numbers I play to only a few....if that session from hell comes up, I put a limit on my loss. Then start over betting 3s to become 4, and do the same.
Got to limit numbers played in order to put a limit on the max loss. I am confident not all sessions will have such negative variance....that there will be a number "break out" ahead. This is where I will take my profit.
Another little graph showing the repeaters pattern.
Here below:
This graph represents a little less than 15k runs of 400 spins.
It will tell you how many y times there were x n-peaters when the n+1-peater arrived.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/07/14/temp_431757.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2d6Ms)
To read in conjunction with a previously posted graph:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/07/14/temp_581640.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2d9I7)
This one shows you:
When the 7-peater arrived, there were on average 2,33 6-peaters so far, with a minimum of 1 and a max of 12.
See Serie 7 to see the distribution of this example.
This shows the "peaking" nature of repeaters?
As spins go by, ever less nrs will peak out of average.
Bigbroben, thanks for the testing! Just wanted to make sure I'm reading this right. If playing like I suggested, 2s to become 3s, then a 3s to become 4s, etc...looks like, on average you would only play somewhere between 2 to 4 numbers most of the time
Yes, if you played this way.
There is a median of 7 uniques when a first repeater arrives, 4 repeaters when a 2-peater arrives, etc...
Here are the averages:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/07/14/temp_127974.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2dVMd)
The previous are just infos and stats.
BBB
what should happen 0x's v 1x's then 0x's v 1x+>1x
Turbo 1's go 2's, 2's go 3's you know the rest, but best to wait for 20 spins, he don't win on all he said
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/07/15/temp_871607.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2DZdy)
Baa,Baa,Baa goes the bleater
Noto, another strategy would be not to even play the 1 hitters and start with repeaters :)
Exactly
The above is 148 spins, from 100 sets, showing why he say’s to bet when a number repeats.
And why it’s better to wait till spin 20, BBB and Dr Sudoku have said of this.
Quote from: nottophammer on Jul 16, 04:01 AM 2018
Exactly
The above is 148 spins, from 100 sets, showing why he say’s to bet when a number repeats.
And why it’s better to wait till spin 20, BBB and Dr Sudoku have said of this.
I would wait until 4 repeaters are out, maybe?
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jul 16, 01:22 PM 2018
I would wait until 4 repeaters are out, maybe?
Yes BBB already said that, if the four hit before 20th spin,i'd still wait
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/07/18/temp_402269.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2pHPL)
BBB nice set of spins from #18 what we say wait untill 20th spin
Here are some more statistics for repeaters. It's from a million random numbers.
The first number is the gap between a number appearing. So if the spins are: 1,31,1. The gap is 2.
So a back to back repeat happens 2.7% of the time for repeat.
This could give a great inside on when to stop betting on a certain number waiting for it to repeat.
Gap Amount Number % Total%
1: 26957 2.7% (2.7)%
2: 26096 2.6% (5.3)%
3: 25289 2.5% (7.8)%
4: 24951 2.5% (10.3)%
5: 24558 2.5% (12.8)%
6: 23881 2.4% (15.2)%
7: 22864 2.3% (17.5)%
8: 22259 2.2% (19.7)%
9: 21580 2.2% (21.8)%
10: 21019 2.1% (23.9)%
11: 20631 2.1% (26)%
12: 19942 2% (28)%
13: 19578 2% (30)%
14: 19043 1.9% (31.9)%
15: 18389 1.8% (33.7)%
16: 17854 1.8% (35.5)%
17: 17471 1.7% (37.2)%
18: 16853 1.7% (38.9)%
19: 16601 1.7% (40.6)%
20: 16389 1.6% (42.2)%
21: 15516 1.6% (43.8)%
22: 15066 1.5% (45.3)%
23: 14868 1.5% (46.8)%
24: 14277 1.4% (48.2)%
25: 14198 1.4% (49.6)%
26: 13490 1.3% (51)%
27: 13180 1.3% (52.3)%
28: 12623 1.3% (53.5)%
29: 12282 1.2% (54.8)%
30: 12168 1.2% (56)%
31: 11913 1.2% (57.2)%
32: 11654 1.2% (58.3)%
33: 11113 1.1% (59.5)%
34: 11050 1.1% (60.6)%
35: 10622 1.1% (61.6)%
36: 10373 1% (62.7)%
37: 9786 1% (63.6)%
38: 9821 1% (64.6)%
39: 9525 1% (65.6)%
40: 9461 0.9% (66.5)%
41: 8992 0.9% (67.4)%
42: 8772 0.9% (68.3)%
43: 8518 0.9% (69.2)%
44: 8340 0.8% (70)%
45: 8113 0.8% (70.8)%
46: 7920 0.8% (71.6)%
47: 7760 0.8% (72.4)%
48: 7396 0.7% (73.1)%
49: 7354 0.7% (73.8)%
50: 7111 0.7% (74.6)%
51: 6802 0.7% (75.2)%
52: 6670 0.7% (75.9)%
53: 6652 0.7% (76.6)%
54: 6504 0.7% (77.2)%
55: 6143 0.6% (77.8)%
56: 6032 0.6% (78.4)%
57: 5798 0.6% (79)%
58: 5769 0.6% (79.6)%
59: 5563 0.6% (80.1)%
60: 5389 0.5% (80.7)%
61: 5165 0.5% (81.2)%
62: 5057 0.5% (81.7)%
63: 4860 0.5% (82.2)%
64: 4860 0.5% (82.7)%
65: 4620 0.5% (83.1)%
66: 4542 0.5% (83.6)%
67: 4459 0.4% (84)%
68: 4275 0.4% (84.5)%
69: 4175 0.4% (84.9)%
70: 4095 0.4% (85.3)%
71: 3993 0.4% (85.7)%
72: 3906 0.4% (86.1)%
73: 3733 0.4% (86.5)%
74: 3706 0.4% (86.8)%
75: 3470 0.3% (87.2)%
76: 3463 0.3% (87.5)%
77: 3302 0.3% (87.9)%
78: 3312 0.3% (88.2)%
79: 3164 0.3% (88.5)%
80: 3200 0.3% (88.8)%
81: 2942 0.3% (89.1)%
82: 3031 0.3% (89.4)%
83: 2846 0.3% (89.7)%
84: 2808 0.3% (90)%
85: 2765 0.3% (90.3)%
86: 2625 0.3% (90.5)%
87: 2602 0.3% (90.8)%
88: 2525 0.3% (91)%
89: 2333 0.2% (91.3)%
90: 2394 0.2% (91.5)%
91: 2314 0.2% (91.7)%
92: 2245 0.2% (92)%
93: 2156 0.2% (92.2)%
94: 2133 0.2% (92.4)%
95: 2085 0.2% (92.6)%
96: 2071 0.2% (92.8)%
97: 1945 0.2% (93)%
98: 1901 0.2% (93.2)%
99: 1805 0.2% (93.4)%
100: 1807 0.2% (93.6)%
101: 1829 0.2% (93.7)%
102: 1656 0.2% (93.9)%
103: 1668 0.2% (94.1)%
104: 1638 0.2% (94.2)%
105: 1609 0.2% (94.4)%
106: 1485 0.1% (94.5)%
107: 1476 0.1% (94.7)%
108: 1467 0.1% (94.8)%
109: 1416 0.1% (95)%
110: 1349 0.1% (95.1)%
111: 1286 0.1% (95.2)%
112: 1291 0.1% (95.4)%
113: 1286 0.1% (95.5)%
114: 1197 0.1% (95.6)%
115: 1177 0.1% (95.7)%
116: 1151 0.1% (95.8)%
117: 1158 0.1% (96)%
118: 1125 0.1% (96.1)%
119: 1017 0.1% (96.2)%
120: 1015 0.1% (96.3)%
121: 956 0.1% (96.4)%
122: 974 0.1% (96.5)%
123: 962 0.1% (96.6)%
124: 924 0.1% (96.7)%
125: 882 0.1% (96.8)%
126: 921 0.1% (96.8)%
127: 848 0.1% (96.9)%
128: 851 0.1% (97)%
129: 797 0.1% (97.1)%
130: 809 0.1% (97.2)%
131: 760 0.1% (97.2)%
132: 792 0.1% (97.3)%
133: 727 0.1% (97.4)%
134: 694 0.1% (97.5)%
135: 679 0.1% (97.5)%
136: 624 0.1% (97.6)%
137: 642 0.1% (97.7)%
138: 647 0.1% (97.7)%
139: 634 0.1% (97.8)%
140: 616 0.1% (97.9)%
141: 546 0.1% (97.9)%
142: 589 0.1% (98)%
143: 553 0.1% (98)%
144: 528 0.1% (98.1)%
145: 535 0.1% (98.1)%
146: 483 0% (98.2)%
147: 483 0% (98.2)%
148: 494 0% (98.3)%
149: 469 0% (98.3)%
150: 458 0% (98.4)%
151: 432 0% (98.4)%
152: 461 0% (98.5)%
153: 415 0% (98.5)%
154: 400 0% (98.5)%
155: 416 0% (98.6)%
156: 370 0% (98.6)%
157: 373 0% (98.7)%
158: 378 0% (98.7)%
159: 365 0% (98.7)%
160: 331 0% (98.8)%
161: 367 0% (98.8)%
162: 333 0% (98.8)%
163: 324 0% (98.9)%
164: 296 0% (98.9)%
165: 309 0% (98.9)%
166: 258 0% (99)%
167: 268 0% (99)%
168: 286 0% (99)%
169: 273 0% (99)%
170: 281 0% (99.1)%
171: 256 0% (99.1)%
172: 245 0% (99.1)%
173: 240 0% (99.1)%
174: 210 0% (99.2)%
175: 229 0% (99.2)%
176: 230 0% (99.2)%
177: 203 0% (99.2)%
178: 226 0% (99.2)%
179: 234 0% (99.3)%
180: 206 0% (99.3)%
181: 191 0% (99.3)%
182: 188 0% (99.3)%
183: 166 0% (99.3)%
184: 183 0% (99.4)%
185: 189 0% (99.4)%
186: 152 0% (99.4)%
187: 175 0% (99.4)%
188: 162 0% (99.4)%
189: 154 0% (99.4)%
190: 171 0% (99.5)%
191: 129 0% (99.5)%
192: 135 0% (99.5)%
193: 146 0% (99.5)%
194: 123 0% (99.5)%
195: 135 0% (99.5)%
196: 131 0% (99.5)%
197: 128 0% (99.6)%
198: 130 0% (99.6)%
199: 107 0% (99.6)%
200: 119 0% (99.6)%
201: 116 0% (99.6)%
202: 94 0% (99.6)%
203: 111 0% (99.6)%
204: 110 0% (99.6)%
205: 97 0% (99.6)%
206: 107 0% (99.7)%
207: 104 0% (99.7)%
208: 82 0% (99.7)%
209: 88 0% (99.7)%
210: 80 0% (99.7)%
211: 97 0% (99.7)%
212: 78 0% (99.7)%
213: 81 0% (99.7)%
214: 72 0% (99.7)%
215: 72 0% (99.7)%
216: 72 0% (99.7)%
217: 66 0% (99.7)%
218: 74 0% (99.8)%
219: 71 0% (99.8)%
220: 63 0% (99.8)%
221: 47 0% (99.8)%
222: 61 0% (99.8)%
223: 59 0% (99.8)%
224: 56 0% (99.8)%
225: 68 0% (99.8)%
226: 46 0% (99.8)%
227: 49 0% (99.8)%
228: 53 0% (99.8)%
229: 55 0% (99.8)%
230: 53 0% (99.8)%
231: 55 0% (99.8)%
232: 50 0% (99.8)%
233: 62 0% (99.8)%
234: 47 0% (99.8)%
235: 53 0% (99.8)%
236: 39 0% (99.9)%
237: 39 0% (99.9)%
238: 35 0% (99.9)%
239: 36 0% (99.9)%
240: 38 0% (99.9)%
241: 40 0% (99.9)%
242: 24 0% (99.9)%
243: 47 0% (99.9)%
244: 33 0% (99.9)%
245: 34 0% (99.9)%
246: 33 0% (99.9)%
247: 34 0% (99.9)%
248: 29 0% (99.9)%
249: 39 0% (99.9)%
250: 38 0% (99.9)%
251: 28 0% (99.9)%
252: 28 0% (99.9)%
253: 32 0% (99.9)%
254: 27 0% (99.9)%
255: 26 0% (99.9)%
256: 20 0% (99.9)%
257: 27 0% (99.9)%
258: 23 0% (99.9)%
259: 23 0% (99.9)%
260: 18 0% (99.9)%
261: 17 0% (99.9)%
262: 25 0% (99.9)%
263: 18 0% (99.9)%
264: 16 0% (99.9)%
265: 20 0% (99.9)%
266: 17 0% (99.9)%
267: 14 0% (99.9)%
268: 19 0% (99.9)%
269: 14 0% (99.9)%
270: 18 0% (99.9)%
271: 17 0% (99.9)%
272: 14 0% (99.9)%
273: 11 0% (99.9)%
274: 20 0% (99.9)%
275: 11 0% (100)%
276: 17 0% (100)%
277: 12 0% (100)%
278: 9 0% (100)%
279: 9 0% (100)%
280: 14 0% (100)%
281: 12 0% (100)%
282: 11 0% (100)%
283: 17 0% (100)%
284: 8 0% (100)%
285: 16 0% (100)%
286: 12 0% (100)%
287: 9 0% (100)%
288: 11 0% (100)%
289: 9 0% (100)%
290: 8 0% (100)%
291: 14 0% (100)%
292: 3 0% (100)%
293: 9 0% (100)%
294: 9 0% (100)%
295: 6 0% (100)%
296: 12 0% (100)%
297: 10 0% (100)%
298: 5 0% (100)%
299: 7 0% (100)%
300: 9 0% (100)%
301: 4 0% (100)%
302: 14 0% (100)%
303: 7 0% (100)%
304: 6 0% (100)%
305: 9 0% (100)%
306: 3 0% (100)%
307: 8 0% (100)%
308: 9 0% (100)%
309: 3 0% (100)%
310: 3 0% (100)%
311: 3 0% (100)%
312: 5 0% (100)%
313: 5 0% (100)%
314: 3 0% (100)%
315: 3 0% (100)%
316: 2 0% (100)%
317: 3 0% (100)%
318: 7 0% (100)%
319: 6 0% (100)%
320: 2 0% (100)%
321: 3 0% (100)%
322: 3 0% (100)%
323: 1 0% (100)%
324: 3 0% (100)%
325: 3 0% (100)%
326: 3 0% (100)%
327: 4 0% (100)%
328: 4 0% (100)%
329: 2 0% (100)%
330: 1 0% (100)%
331: 3 0% (100)%
332: 2 0% (100)%
333: 3 0% (100)%
334: 2 0% (100)%
336: 2 0% (100)%
337: 2 0% (100)%
339: 3 0% (100)%
340: 3 0% (100)%
341: 2 0% (100)%
342: 2 0% (100)%
343: 3 0% (100)%
344: 2 0% (100)%
345: 2 0% (100)%
346: 3 0% (100)%
347: 1 0% (100)%
348: 1 0% (100)%
349: 1 0% (100)%
350: 2 0% (100)%
351: 1 0% (100)%
352: 2 0% (100)%
354: 1 0% (100)%
356: 2 0% (100)%
358: 1 0% (100)%
359: 1 0% (100)%
360: 3 0% (100)%
361: 3 0% (100)%
363: 2 0% (100)%
366: 1 0% (100)%
367: 3 0% (100)%
368: 1 0% (100)%
369: 1 0% (100)%
371: 2 0% (100)%
373: 1 0% (100)%
375: 3 0% (100)%
377: 1 0% (100)%
378: 1 0% (100)%
379: 2 0% (100)%
380: 1 0% (100)%
381: 1 0% (100)%
382: 1 0% (100)%
383: 2 0% (100)%
385: 1 0% (100)%
386: 3 0% (100)%
388: 1 0% (100)%
393: 2 0% (100)%
397: 1 0% (100)%
400: 1 0% (100)%
401: 1 0% (100)%
403: 1 0% (100)%
404: 2 0% (100)%
417: 2 0% (100)%
418: 1 0% (100)%
419: 1 0% (100)%
425: 1 0% (100)%
429: 1 0% (100)%
432: 1 0% (100)%
433: 1 0% (100)%
454: 1 0% (100)%
457: 1 0% (100)%
476: 1 0% (100)%
498: 1 0% (100)%
502: 1 0% (100)%
Quote from: RayManZ on Jul 20, 12:34 PM 2018
Here are some more statistics for repeaters. It's from a million random numbers.
The first number is the gap between a number appearing. So if the spins are: 1,31,1. The gap is 2.
So a back to back repeat happens 2.7% of the time for repeat.
This could give a great inside on when to stop betting on a certain number waiting for it to repeat.
That is not a surprise at all.
That is exactly what basic probability tells us to expect -- since every spin is an independent event, the probability of a number appearing again on the very next spin is 1/37 = .0270 = 2.7%.
Quote from: DoctorSudoku on Jul 20, 01:06 PM 2018
That is not a surprise at all.
That is exactly what basic probability tells us to expect -- since every spin is an independent event, the probability of a number appearing again on the very next spin is 1/37 = .0270 = 2.7%.
And if the same simulation is done with 38 numbers (for the double zero wheel), we will see that a back to back repeat will happen 2.6% of the time (1/38 = .026 = 2.6%).
Quote from: DoctorSudoku on Jul 20, 01:06 PM 2018
That is not a surprise at all.
That is exactly what basic probability tells us to expect -- since every spin is an independent event, the probability of a number appearing again on the very next spin is 1/37 = .0270 = 2.7%.
Read his post and thought the same thing Doc, sometimes we don't see the forest for the trees.... :twisted: :wink:
Some tests I did indicated that after 12 spins
a repeat isn't a repeat. I haven't gone
any further except to think that if you're
looking at the balance of one-hit numbers
vs repeats you can ignore "repeats" that
haven't hit for 12 spins.
In continuation of what I posted in the KTF thread:
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=16512.1530
Started using the 200k MPR spins provided by Steve, gathering stats of spins between 1st repeater and second, also between 2nd and 3rd, with all sorts of other stats.
I'll take 40 spins, process them with the macro, then delete the 5 first numbers, and run again, so on until all will be done. Should give about 40k trials.
Ok to remove 5 spins? I guess so, it's another game started 5 spins later.
It's a slow process, about 2 seconds per trial, as opposed to 10 per second. Anyway. Will let it run overnight and see tomorrow.
Who knows, maybe there will be some heretic results! ( A first 12500 trial was run with random.org spins, sure was an inconvenient truth!)
link:s://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d42cba00-694a-4ff7-bcb9-48faf016199a
How is Seinfeld related and more puzzling is how “excuse me I’m gonna make love to your motha†from Seinfeld related.
lol
Yeah....
Guess I should have said: ''time for bed'' instead.
You know, I punched out, so I don't care anymore!
Quote from: Bigbroben on Aug 03, 11:10 PM 2018
Yeah....
Guess I should have said: ''time for bed'' instead.
You know, I punched out, so I don't care anymore!
I liked it. :xd:
Ok,
preliminary results for 13869 trials, using MPR spins from Random.org:
as expected, distribution of first repeaters comes as follows:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_594842.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2osC9)
In these 13869 runs, the 2nd repeater came on average 4 spins later. Distribution:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_255863.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2oTFD)
Here comes the interesting part:
on average, the 2nd repeaters hit right after 1st repeater 19,82% of times.
3rd repeater hit right after 2nd repeater 27,93% of times.
Ok.
Let's compare theory and the results. When 1st repeater hits on spin 2, theory shows the next spin would be a repeater 2.7% (1/37th) of times. A 1st repeater on spin 8 would see a 2nd repeater on next spin 7/37th of times.
Here is theory versus results:
For 1st repeater:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_397330.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2ouG1)
Proportional difference, in graph:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_904674.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2oBQ5)
For 2nd repeater:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_311441.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2oILr)
Proportional difference, in graph:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_909526.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2oLvx)
Will continue to run the macro, I expect the proportional difference curve to smoothen out. Too early to say the trend is clear?
Quote from: Bigbroben on Aug 04, 01:32 PM 2018
Ok,
preliminary results for 13869 trials, using MPR spins from Random.org:
as expected, distribution of first repeaters comes as follows:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_594842.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2osC9)
In these 13869 runs, the 2nd repeater came on average 4 spins later. Distribution:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_255863.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2oTFD)
Here comes the interesting part:
on average, the 2nd repeaters hit right after 1st repeater 19,82% of times.
3rd repeater hit right after 2nd repeater 27,93% of times.
Ok.
Let's compare theory and the results. When 1st repeater hits on spin 2, theory shows the next spin would be a repeater 2.7% (1/37th) of times. A 1st repeater on spin 8 would see a 2nd repeater on next spin 7/37th of times.
Here is theory versus results:
For 1st repeater:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_397330.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2ouG1)
Proportional difference, in graph:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_904674.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2oBQ5)
For 2nd repeater:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_311441.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2oILr)
Proportional difference, in graph:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_909526.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2oLvx)
Will continue to run the macro, I expect the proportional difference curve to smoothen out. Too early to say the trend is clear?
Very interesting stuff this...would the 2nd repeater be from all numbers out or a certain section of the numbers out ? That would be even more interesting ..
What do you mean?
Like: the second repeater comes from the last 8 nrs out, or something like that?
In a 37 spin-cycle, 52% or so of repeaters are from a nr that appeared within the last 8 nrs out.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Aug 04, 02:30 PM 2018
What do you mean?
Like: the second repeater comes from the last 8 nrs out, or something like that?
In a 37 spin-cycle, 52% or so of repeaters are from a nr that appeared within the last 8 nrs out.
Excactly like that yes..the percentage of the area the 2nd repeat came out..there must be a rolling effect in the game where next cycle comes in and not at the end...herby did a mathimatica graph showing where 1st repeat came out and as it dropped the next lot started coming out..
And so forth..where these start to converge as one line on graph drops the other rises maybe that’s would be a key point ..
Ok, I should be able to insert this info for the next 25k trials that are left. You'd say an ordinal gap or spin gap? Although both are close one to another with only 2 or 3 repeaters. Will go with ordinal gap.
After 20363 trials:
Reminder: the next 2 graphs represent the percentage difference between theory and this test, comparing the spin after 1st repeater (and 2nd), to see if it is another repeater or not.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_333447.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2vt9H)
Love this one. Don't know, though, why the jigsaw shape of it.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_644005.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2vTNd)
6th-sense:
Ordinals of 2nd and 3rd repeaters are as follows:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/04/temp_446494.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/2vFHU)
Results of second test, 40k game starts, using random.org spins:
charting hitrate of the next repeater (2nd or 3rd) on the next spin after 1st and 2nd repeater.
So, if 1st repeater arrives on spin x, percentage difference y of hitrate vs theory.
Somewhat mild difference on the spin after the first repeater:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_525406.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/t2gsB)
Very interesting results on the hitrate after 2nd repeater, especially on quick repeaters:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_266367.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/t2jY9)
Take a second repeater hitting on spin 6. Happened 925 times in 40k. 3rd repeater arrived on next spin 120 times, which is 12,97%, as opposed to a theorical 10,81%, so 20% higher.
Looking forward for next results, to see if consistent...
Nice testing Bigroben! Based on results, what's a good strategy to use?
Do you mean: what is the spin gap between rep1 and rep2, rep2 and rep3?
Quote from: Scarface on Aug 12, 11:45 AM 2018
Nice testing Bigroben! Based on results, what's a good strategy to use?
Quick, I'd say: play 4 nrs when 4 nrs appear in 6 spins. Did not calculate yet, based on results. Will do soon. Still, these are past results can't garantee it will continue.
I' ll play with the excel sheet later today.
Passion,
if you mean: what is the ordinal gap of the repeating nr, here are some infos. Analysis of last 40k game starts.
Repeater 2:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_311843.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttUep)
Repeater 3:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_260729.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttea0)
Cumulative:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_913706.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttliH)
So, if you bet last 8 numbers out for the second repeater, you would have caught 78% of them.
If you meant gaps between repeater 1 and 2, or 2 and 3:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_489080.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tt02d)
Algo mas?
Quote from: Bigbroben on Aug 12, 09:20 PM 2018
Passion,
if you mean: what is the ordinal gap of the repeating nr, here are some infos. Analysis of last 40k game starts.
Repeater 2:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_311843.png)[/url
Repeater 3:
[url=link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttea0](link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_260729.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttUep)
Cumulative:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_913706.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttliH)
So, if you bet last 8 numbers out for the second repeater, you would have caught 78% of them.
If you meant gaps between repeater 1 and 2, or 2 and 3:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_489080.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tt02d)
Algo mas?
seen this before somewhere.. apart from yourself..interesting stuff ..precisley what i was getting at
I don't understand what you mean!
Gve an example?
Quote from: RayManZ on Jul 20, 12:34 PM 2018
Here are some more statistics for repeaters. It's from a million random numbers.
The first number is the gap between a number appearing. So if the spins are: 1,31,1. The gap is 2.
So a back to back repeat happens 2.7% of the time for repeat.
This could give a great inside on when to stop betting on a certain number waiting for it to repeat.
Gap Amount Number % Total%
1: 26957 2.7% (2.7)%
2: 26096 2.6% (5.3)%
3: 25289 2.5% (7.8)%
4: 24951 2.5% (10.3)%
5: 24558 2.5% (12.8)%
6: 23881 2.4% (15.2)%
7: 22864 2.3% (17.5)%
8: 22259 2.2% (19.7)%
9: 21580 2.2% (21.8)%
10: 21019 2.1% (23.9)%
11: 20631 2.1% (26)%
12: 19942 2% (28)%
13: 19578 2% (30)%
14: 19043 1.9% (31.9)%
15: 18389 1.8% (33.7)%
16: 17854 1.8% (35.5)%
17: 17471 1.7% (37.2)%
18: 16853 1.7% (38.9)%
19: 16601 1.7% (40.6)%
20: 16389 1.6% (42.2)%
21: 15516 1.6% (43.8)%
22: 15066 1.5% (45.3)%
23: 14868 1.5% (46.8)%
24: 14277 1.4% (48.2)%
25: 14198 1.4% (49.6)%
26: 13490 1.3% (51)%
27: 13180 1.3% (52.3)%
28: 12623 1.3% (53.5)%
29: 12282 1.2% (54.8)%
30: 12168 1.2% (56)%
31: 11913 1.2% (57.2)%
32: 11654 1.2% (58.3)%
33: 11113 1.1% (59.5)%
34: 11050 1.1% (60.6)%
35: 10622 1.1% (61.6)%
36: 10373 1% (62.7)%
37: 9786 1% (63.6)%
38: 9821 1% (64.6)%
39: 9525 1% (65.6)%
40: 9461 0.9% (66.5)%
41: 8992 0.9% (67.4)%
42: 8772 0.9% (68.3)%
43: 8518 0.9% (69.2)%
44: 8340 0.8% (70)%
45: 8113 0.8% (70.8)%
46: 7920 0.8% (71.6)%
47: 7760 0.8% (72.4)%
48: 7396 0.7% (73.1)%
49: 7354 0.7% (73.8)%
50: 7111 0.7% (74.6)%
51: 6802 0.7% (75.2)%
52: 6670 0.7% (75.9)%
53: 6652 0.7% (76.6)%
54: 6504 0.7% (77.2)%
55: 6143 0.6% (77.8)%
56: 6032 0.6% (78.4)%
57: 5798 0.6% (79)%
58: 5769 0.6% (79.6)%
59: 5563 0.6% (80.1)%
60: 5389 0.5% (80.7)%
61: 5165 0.5% (81.2)%
62: 5057 0.5% (81.7)%
63: 4860 0.5% (82.2)%
64: 4860 0.5% (82.7)%
65: 4620 0.5% (83.1)%
66: 4542 0.5% (83.6)%
67: 4459 0.4% (84)%
68: 4275 0.4% (84.5)%
69: 4175 0.4% (84.9)%
70: 4095 0.4% (85.3)%
71: 3993 0.4% (85.7)%
72: 3906 0.4% (86.1)%
73: 3733 0.4% (86.5)%
74: 3706 0.4% (86.8)%
75: 3470 0.3% (87.2)%
76: 3463 0.3% (87.5)%
77: 3302 0.3% (87.9)%
78: 3312 0.3% (88.2)%
79: 3164 0.3% (88.5)%
80: 3200 0.3% (88.8)%
81: 2942 0.3% (89.1)%
82: 3031 0.3% (89.4)%
83: 2846 0.3% (89.7)%
84: 2808 0.3% (90)%
85: 2765 0.3% (90.3)%
86: 2625 0.3% (90.5)%
87: 2602 0.3% (90.8)%
88: 2525 0.3% (91)%
89: 2333 0.2% (91.3)%
90: 2394 0.2% (91.5)%
91: 2314 0.2% (91.7)%
92: 2245 0.2% (92)%
93: 2156 0.2% (92.2)%
94: 2133 0.2% (92.4)%
95: 2085 0.2% (92.6)%
96: 2071 0.2% (92.8)%
97: 1945 0.2% (93)%
98: 1901 0.2% (93.2)%
99: 1805 0.2% (93.4)%
100: 1807 0.2% (93.6)%
101: 1829 0.2% (93.7)%
102: 1656 0.2% (93.9)%
103: 1668 0.2% (94.1)%
104: 1638 0.2% (94.2)%
105: 1609 0.2% (94.4)%
106: 1485 0.1% (94.5)%
107: 1476 0.1% (94.7)%
108: 1467 0.1% (94.8)%
109: 1416 0.1% (95)%
110: 1349 0.1% (95.1)%
111: 1286 0.1% (95.2)%
112: 1291 0.1% (95.4)%
113: 1286 0.1% (95.5)%
114: 1197 0.1% (95.6)%
115: 1177 0.1% (95.7)%
116: 1151 0.1% (95.8)%
117: 1158 0.1% (96)%
118: 1125 0.1% (96.1)%
119: 1017 0.1% (96.2)%
120: 1015 0.1% (96.3)%
121: 956 0.1% (96.4)%
122: 974 0.1% (96.5)%
123: 962 0.1% (96.6)%
124: 924 0.1% (96.7)%
125: 882 0.1% (96.8)%
126: 921 0.1% (96.8)%
127: 848 0.1% (96.9)%
128: 851 0.1% (97)%
129: 797 0.1% (97.1)%
130: 809 0.1% (97.2)%
131: 760 0.1% (97.2)%
132: 792 0.1% (97.3)%
133: 727 0.1% (97.4)%
134: 694 0.1% (97.5)%
135: 679 0.1% (97.5)%
136: 624 0.1% (97.6)%
137: 642 0.1% (97.7)%
138: 647 0.1% (97.7)%
139: 634 0.1% (97.8)%
140: 616 0.1% (97.9)%
141: 546 0.1% (97.9)%
142: 589 0.1% (98)%
143: 553 0.1% (98)%
144: 528 0.1% (98.1)%
145: 535 0.1% (98.1)%
146: 483 0% (98.2)%
147: 483 0% (98.2)%
148: 494 0% (98.3)%
149: 469 0% (98.3)%
150: 458 0% (98.4)%
151: 432 0% (98.4)%
152: 461 0% (98.5)%
153: 415 0% (98.5)%
154: 400 0% (98.5)%
155: 416 0% (98.6)%
156: 370 0% (98.6)%
157: 373 0% (98.7)%
158: 378 0% (98.7)%
159: 365 0% (98.7)%
160: 331 0% (98.8)%
161: 367 0% (98.8)%
162: 333 0% (98.8)%
163: 324 0% (98.9)%
164: 296 0% (98.9)%
165: 309 0% (98.9)%
166: 258 0% (99)%
167: 268 0% (99)%
168: 286 0% (99)%
169: 273 0% (99)%
170: 281 0% (99.1)%
171: 256 0% (99.1)%
172: 245 0% (99.1)%
173: 240 0% (99.1)%
174: 210 0% (99.2)%
175: 229 0% (99.2)%
176: 230 0% (99.2)%
177: 203 0% (99.2)%
178: 226 0% (99.2)%
179: 234 0% (99.3)%
180: 206 0% (99.3)%
181: 191 0% (99.3)%
182: 188 0% (99.3)%
183: 166 0% (99.3)%
184: 183 0% (99.4)%
185: 189 0% (99.4)%
186: 152 0% (99.4)%
187: 175 0% (99.4)%
188: 162 0% (99.4)%
189: 154 0% (99.4)%
190: 171 0% (99.5)%
191: 129 0% (99.5)%
192: 135 0% (99.5)%
193: 146 0% (99.5)%
194: 123 0% (99.5)%
195: 135 0% (99.5)%
196: 131 0% (99.5)%
197: 128 0% (99.6)%
198: 130 0% (99.6)%
199: 107 0% (99.6)%
200: 119 0% (99.6)%
201: 116 0% (99.6)%
202: 94 0% (99.6)%
203: 111 0% (99.6)%
204: 110 0% (99.6)%
205: 97 0% (99.6)%
206: 107 0% (99.7)%
207: 104 0% (99.7)%
208: 82 0% (99.7)%
209: 88 0% (99.7)%
210: 80 0% (99.7)%
211: 97 0% (99.7)%
212: 78 0% (99.7)%
213: 81 0% (99.7)%
214: 72 0% (99.7)%
215: 72 0% (99.7)%
216: 72 0% (99.7)%
217: 66 0% (99.7)%
218: 74 0% (99.8)%
219: 71 0% (99.8)%
220: 63 0% (99.8)%
221: 47 0% (99.8)%
222: 61 0% (99.8)%
223: 59 0% (99.8)%
224: 56 0% (99.8)%
225: 68 0% (99.8)%
226: 46 0% (99.8)%
227: 49 0% (99.8)%
228: 53 0% (99.8)%
229: 55 0% (99.8)%
230: 53 0% (99.8)%
231: 55 0% (99.8)%
232: 50 0% (99.8)%
233: 62 0% (99.8)%
234: 47 0% (99.8)%
235: 53 0% (99.8)%
236: 39 0% (99.9)%
237: 39 0% (99.9)%
238: 35 0% (99.9)%
239: 36 0% (99.9)%
240: 38 0% (99.9)%
241: 40 0% (99.9)%
242: 24 0% (99.9)%
243: 47 0% (99.9)%
244: 33 0% (99.9)%
245: 34 0% (99.9)%
246: 33 0% (99.9)%
247: 34 0% (99.9)%
248: 29 0% (99.9)%
249: 39 0% (99.9)%
250: 38 0% (99.9)%
251: 28 0% (99.9)%
252: 28 0% (99.9)%
253: 32 0% (99.9)%
254: 27 0% (99.9)%
255: 26 0% (99.9)%
256: 20 0% (99.9)%
257: 27 0% (99.9)%
258: 23 0% (99.9)%
259: 23 0% (99.9)%
260: 18 0% (99.9)%
261: 17 0% (99.9)%
262: 25 0% (99.9)%
263: 18 0% (99.9)%
264: 16 0% (99.9)%
265: 20 0% (99.9)%
266: 17 0% (99.9)%
267: 14 0% (99.9)%
268: 19 0% (99.9)%
269: 14 0% (99.9)%
270: 18 0% (99.9)%
271: 17 0% (99.9)%
272: 14 0% (99.9)%
273: 11 0% (99.9)%
274: 20 0% (99.9)%
275: 11 0% (100)%
276: 17 0% (100)%
277: 12 0% (100)%
278: 9 0% (100)%
279: 9 0% (100)%
280: 14 0% (100)%
281: 12 0% (100)%
282: 11 0% (100)%
283: 17 0% (100)%
284: 8 0% (100)%
285: 16 0% (100)%
286: 12 0% (100)%
287: 9 0% (100)%
288: 11 0% (100)%
289: 9 0% (100)%
290: 8 0% (100)%
291: 14 0% (100)%
292: 3 0% (100)%
293: 9 0% (100)%
294: 9 0% (100)%
295: 6 0% (100)%
296: 12 0% (100)%
297: 10 0% (100)%
298: 5 0% (100)%
299: 7 0% (100)%
300: 9 0% (100)%
301: 4 0% (100)%
302: 14 0% (100)%
303: 7 0% (100)%
304: 6 0% (100)%
305: 9 0% (100)%
306: 3 0% (100)%
307: 8 0% (100)%
308: 9 0% (100)%
309: 3 0% (100)%
310: 3 0% (100)%
311: 3 0% (100)%
312: 5 0% (100)%
313: 5 0% (100)%
314: 3 0% (100)%
315: 3 0% (100)%
316: 2 0% (100)%
317: 3 0% (100)%
318: 7 0% (100)%
319: 6 0% (100)%
320: 2 0% (100)%
321: 3 0% (100)%
322: 3 0% (100)%
323: 1 0% (100)%
324: 3 0% (100)%
325: 3 0% (100)%
326: 3 0% (100)%
327: 4 0% (100)%
328: 4 0% (100)%
329: 2 0% (100)%
330: 1 0% (100)%
331: 3 0% (100)%
332: 2 0% (100)%
333: 3 0% (100)%
334: 2 0% (100)%
336: 2 0% (100)%
337: 2 0% (100)%
339: 3 0% (100)%
340: 3 0% (100)%
341: 2 0% (100)%
342: 2 0% (100)%
343: 3 0% (100)%
344: 2 0% (100)%
345: 2 0% (100)%
346: 3 0% (100)%
347: 1 0% (100)%
348: 1 0% (100)%
349: 1 0% (100)%
350: 2 0% (100)%
351: 1 0% (100)%
352: 2 0% (100)%
354: 1 0% (100)%
356: 2 0% (100)%
358: 1 0% (100)%
359: 1 0% (100)%
360: 3 0% (100)%
361: 3 0% (100)%
363: 2 0% (100)%
366: 1 0% (100)%
367: 3 0% (100)%
368: 1 0% (100)%
369: 1 0% (100)%
371: 2 0% (100)%
373: 1 0% (100)%
375: 3 0% (100)%
377: 1 0% (100)%
378: 1 0% (100)%
379: 2 0% (100)%
380: 1 0% (100)%
381: 1 0% (100)%
382: 1 0% (100)%
383: 2 0% (100)%
385: 1 0% (100)%
386: 3 0% (100)%
388: 1 0% (100)%
393: 2 0% (100)%
397: 1 0% (100)%
400: 1 0% (100)%
401: 1 0% (100)%
403: 1 0% (100)%
404: 2 0% (100)%
417: 2 0% (100)%
418: 1 0% (100)%
419: 1 0% (100)%
425: 1 0% (100)%
429: 1 0% (100)%
432: 1 0% (100)%
433: 1 0% (100)%
454: 1 0% (100)%
457: 1 0% (100)%
476: 1 0% (100)%
498: 1 0% (100)%
502: 1 0% (100)%
all ready posted those stats...
RaymanZ,
Do you have any statistics on gaps for
groups of numbers?
For example the avarage gaps for:
.....one dozen(12 numbers)
.....9 numbers group
.....one double street(6 numbers)
.....one quad ( 4 numbers)
.....one street ( 3 numbers)
..... one split( 2 numbers )
I know for straight is .....gaps 6,7,8 but
can t ignore the 1,2,3,4,5 and 9,10,11.
For example if i play ,
....one doz, i bet for gaps 1 or 2 or 3
....9 numbers, i bet for gaps 1 or...2....3....4
.....6 no, i bet for gaps 1 or...2...3...4...5...6
.....4 no , i bet for gaps 2...3...4...5...6
.... 3 no, bet for g 3...4...5....6...7
..... 2 no bet for g 4...5...6...7...8...9
Quote from: RationPouleta on Aug 13, 10:42 AM 2018
25-32-26-25 - gap of 4
33-1-22-18-7-9-25-36-1 - gap of 8
Then I realized that someone said in gamblingforums that in 50% of the cases the repetitions fall between 4-8 of balls.
Then I would like to know which are the most frequent or the most frequent breaches and if it varies or not or if it is something that happens a lot in all kinds of sessions.
Passion,
using your nrs: what you call a gap of 4 (or 8 ): 3nrs (7) in 4 (or 8 ) spins. So a repeater coming at spin 4( 8 ).
Let' see the stats:
(Now, let's agree to assume there are no other repeaters invetween the 2 regarded repeating nr appearance, otherwise we should differentiate:
1) spin gaps, which falls in the following way:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_907826.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttdSD)
2) order gap, which on long term will run as a flat line around 18-19
So, let's see what's the first order gap of the first repeater. This is the same as considering only repeaters without repeating nrs vetween.
This will show a similar curve as the spin gap: more frequent spin gap is 1, max theorical gap is 37.
Here, results of 10k first repeater:
X: repeater gap. Y: How many times it happened.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_179727.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tt4yQ)
If demonstrated in a 3D chart, checking repeater gap and separating them per spin gap:
X: 1st repeater arriving at spin X;
Y: repeater gap Y on the X spin;
Z: occurences in 10k.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_236923.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttJSy)
( I just discovered the 3D-charts in Excel, get ready for me over-using them!)
So we see it all evens out.
What I can tell you, though, is:
the gap average grows half as fast as the 1st repeater spin ((Spin
x+1)/2):
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_384312.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttgbp)
If you really want to focus on the first repeater spin, as expected:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_181788.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttjg0)
Percentage of repeaters coming from spin 5 to 9, so from 4 to 8 nrs, in this 10k session trial: 4997. So, yeah, 50%.
Enough for now, back to work...
Thought I'd give it a shot and check repeater behavior in 2nd cycle.
Instead of measuring in spins, let's have the nr of repeaters as our reference. So I gathered stats mostly for the 37th repeater.
Turns out, unexpectedly but probably mathematically right, that the 37th repeater will most of the time arrive on spins 68 and 69. Like 10% on spin 66, 15% on spin 67,18% on spin 68, 18% on spin 69 and 14% on spin 70. With rather a reduced range, 58-74 ( can't be higher than 74 anyways). See attached.
I noticed that the repeaters tend to hit in ever narrower range as they accumulate ( 1st rep can hit anywhere from 2nd spin to 28th, with a smoother curve, then growing spikier and narrower). Don't know how to exploit this yet.
Then I checked the number's rank when repeating, or position. In 37 repeaters, on average, there are 21 ranks out, 10 ranks coming out twice, 4 ranks 3 times, 1 rank 4 times. This differs from the 23-13-1-0 with the 37 first nrs.
Comparing situation at spin37 with spin74, in regards of ranks out:
In a normal 37 spin cycle, with 13-14 repeaters on average, one sees 10-3-1 for ranks hiting 1x, 2x, 3x. Then at spin 74, which sees anywhere from 37 to 49 repeaters (average 42), it's 22-12-5-2 for 1x,2x,3x,4x.
So, from spin 37 to 74, there are 37 spins and 28 repeatings (42-14), so 9 new nrs. On average, 12 new ranks will appear and 16 wil repeat.
So I ask a question: would we get, in the 2nd cycle, 9 losses due to new nrs out and 12 losses due to new ranks out, on average? This would leave 16 wins (37-(9+12)) in 37 spins, while betting from 10 to 22 nrs ( as opposed to 13-14 wins while playing 1-24 nrs if considering the nrs and not their rank)?
I did not yet simulate this yet. I'll sleep over it.
P.S.: Notto, spin 60, indeed, is on average the spin where the amount of repeaters equals to half of spin nrs, so half reps, half unhits.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 13, 12:00 AM 2019P.S.: Notto, spin 60, indeed, is on average the spin where the amount of repeaters equals to half of spin nrs, so half reps, half unhits.
Thanks BBB; so the non-hit time tables are worth looking over.
I was wondering if this could be a significant ''GUT'' crossing: the spin where nrs out equals half of spins, or as many repeating spins as nrs out...
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 14, 08:32 PM 2019
I was wondering if this could be a significant ''GUT'' crossing: the spin where nrs out equals half of spins, or as many repeating spins as nrs out...
No significance there as the same number of pockets remain on the wheel.
Studiers of repeaters may be interested in the attached pic from a Vegas casino. Number 19 hits, then repeats 7 times in a row. Odds of one in 2.56 billion.
Followed shortly by 4 number 20
Anything can happen.
:wink:
Ok we’ll all start betting on 19
Quote from: Firefox on Jan 18, 03:38 PM 2019
Studiers of repeaters may be interested in the attached pic from a Vegas casino. Number 19 hits, then repeats 7 times in a row. Odds of one in 2.56 billion.
Followed shortly by 4 number 20
Anything can happen.
:wink:
That reader board is misreading. It looks like a Grips brand number reader board at the Rio Casino in Las Vegas. Unfortunately that reader board wouldn't accurately read the numbers that would hit on the TCS Huxley Starburst roulette wheels. Those are duplicate reads where it would read the numbers more than once. The Rio's boards were terrible. I've been there many times.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jan 13, 12:00 AM 2019
So, from spin 37 to 74, there are 37 spins and 28 repeatings (42-14), so 9 new nrs. On average, 12 new ranks will appear and 16 wil repeat.
So I ask a question: would we get, in the 2nd cycle, 9 losses due to new nrs out and 12 losses due to new ranks out, on average? This would leave 16 wins (37-(9+12)) in 37 spins, while betting from 10 to 22 nrs ( as opposed to 13-14 wins while playing 1-24 nrs if considering the nrs and not their rank)?
No! You have forgotten one element:
imagine a non-hit-# appears in the second 37spin-cycle 4 times.
This ruins your statistics and conclusions
Big Bro
Nice to get a proper reply not the shaking head from you know who.
Good see you Winkel
Quote from: winkel on Jan 21, 04:51 PM 2019
No! You have forgotten one element:
imagine a non-hit-# appears in the second 37spin-cycle 4 times.
This ruins your statistics and conclusions
The above stats about repeater's position did not concentrate on unhits, this is true. They were left to repeaters. And indeed, if a unhit lands, it's a loss for the spin.
Overall, the macros showed the unit cost for a hit hovers around 37. As expected.