The Van Keelen Test
Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.
Beside the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.
The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system, and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!
The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.
The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!
To check a system over 1000 spins, has no meaning!
This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.
With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.
Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):
A system indicates a genuine superiority:
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained*
My Notes ...
So close, I peak at 70 units during 963 placed bets, flat betting, now assume I would use a smooth progression, then it would take forever to lose.
For example 11111 22222 33333 44444 55555
(link:://forumbilder.se/H7FRM/van-kellen-1.jpg)
(link:://forumbilder.se/H7FRM/van-kellen-2.jpg)
Do you know of any system that consistently passed the Van Keelen test?
Could not find any on internet, of course...
On your graph, it's one unit per spin on an EC?
QuoteOn your graph, it's one unit per spin on an EC?
Yes ...
PLS DISCUSS MORE
Quote from: ego on Jul 14, 08:28 AM 2018
The Van Keelen Test
Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.
Beside the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.
The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system, and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!
The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.
The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!
To check a system over 1000 spins, has no meaning!
This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.
With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.
Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):
A system indicates a genuine superiority:
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained*
My Notes ...
So close, I peak at 70 units during 963 placed bets, flat betting, now assume I would use a smooth progression, then it would take forever to lose.
For example 11111 22222 33333 44444 55555
(link:://forumbilder.se/H7FRM/van-kellen-1.jpg)
(link:://forumbilder.se/H7FRM/van-kellen-2.jpg)
So, if a system has 400% edge, and you win almost on every spin, we don't really need 1000 spins? I guess from what did you say later.
"
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained*
"
I think the greater the edge, the fewer spins do we need, correct?
What is meant is that if you have more than 100u after 1000 bets (can be 100x 10 nrs or 1000ECs, doesn't matter), it's looking good. Go on until 8000 placed bets. If still above zero, it has potential. If after 100k bets you're not that far in the red, you have a "Van Kellen" approved approach. The more placed bet the better to be sure to call it good. All bets are meant to be flat.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Jun 19, 08:58 PM 2019
What is meant is that if you have more than 100u after 1000 bets (can be 100x 10 nrs or 1000ECs, doesn't matter), it's looking good. Go on until 8000 placed bets. If still above zero, it has potential. If after 100k bets you're not that far in the red, you have a "Van Kellen" approved approach. The more placed bet the better to be sure to call it good. All bets are meant to be flat.
100000 * 4min(delay between spins) = 400000
400000 / 60min = 6666,666h
needed and that's assuming you play day/night, that's 277 days of play non-stop and 555 days of 12h.
However, if someone has multiple testers like i will need, then the numbers are acceptable, because everyone just need to put a small part of it. It's not that bad at this point.