I would like someone who has coding skills to check something for me.
I am willing to make a small donation to your PayPal account for your trouble.
I would like to know over one million spins of a zero wheel (can be RNG) what is the largest drawdown that occurs if one flat bets the avant dernier or in English the last but one.
I also want to know the largest drawdown if one were to simply just bet Red for 1 million spins and the same again just betting Black for 1 million spins.
Example:
Spin 1: Red (no bet)
Spin 2: Black (no bet)
Spin 3: Bet Red
And so on for 1 million spins. Zero is recorded as 50% loss (‘La Partage’ rules) and ignored for the purposes of tracking.
The purpose of this test is to discover if maximum drawdowns are less than if one were to just bet Red for 1 million spins or Black for 1 million spins.
Logically the results should all be more or less the same but I have a hunch that staking using the avant dernier will prove to be far superior.
You want it for Rx?
Oh, yes please. That would be perfect. Thanks.
I think it would be more meaningful to code it as 10,000 x 100 spin sessions rather than a continuous session of 1m spins because in that case the maximum drawdown would be very close to the expected loss of 27,000 units for all 3 bet selections. So for each selection method you would have 10,000 sessions and then you could compare how many sessions for each selection had a drawdowns within a certain range. Better yet, you could do a statistical test for equality of variances; no need for anywhere near a million spin test in that case.
Here you go... O0
[reveal]
system "Let me win"
// Coded by: nOrMy2o0o
method "main"
begin
while starting a new session
begin
copy list [1,3,5,7,9,12,14,16,18,19,21,23,25,27,30,32,34,36]to record "RED#" layout
copy list [2,4,6,8,10,11,13,15,17,20,22,24,26,28,29,31,33,35]to record "BLACK#" layout
copy list
- to record "zero" layout
end
// general tracking
Locate Number Backward 2 spins from the Last Number to Record "bet-number" layout
if Record "bet-number" layout is found in record "zero" layout
begin
if Record "lastbet" layout is found in record "RED#" layout
begin
put 1 on red
end
if Record "lastbet" layout is found in record "BLACK#" layout
begin
put 1 on black
end
end
if Record "bet-number" layout is found in record "RED#" layout
begin
put 1 on red
copy record "bet-number" layout to record "lastbet" layout
end
if Record "bet-number" layout is found in record "BLACK#" layout
begin
put 1 on black
copy record "bet-number" layout to record "lastbet" layout
end
end
[/reveal]
Thanks, but I got an error message at line 10 - 11 Action keyword expected after Copy List
Does it work OK your end?
Hi Joe
The expected loss won't be 27,000 units because we are playing en prison rules :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
But your logic of course is the same expected loss 13,500
But my hunch is that the avant dernier will perform better than the expected loss.
Of course I am probably completely wrong but I just wanted to prove it to myself.
I think it was the Reveal option, try the attach file instead.
Thanks that works apart from the bet selection is sometimes wrong :)
If you spin you will see....
It must always bet the same colour as the last but one previous decision.
In other words the patterns that kill it are:
RED RED BLACK BLACK RED RED BLACK BLACK and lose every bet.
RED RED RED BLACK BLACK BLACK RED RED RED BLACK BLACK BLACK and we shall lose two bets and win once.
It will be interesting to see at what point the flat bet drawdown limit is that it can never recover from.
on line 13: Locate Number Backward 2 spins from the Last Number to Record "bet-number" layout
replace the 2 by a 1, it should be ok
Perfect now thank you very much.
You are welcome. :thumbsup:
Recovered from - 105 units flat betting.
You'd like it for Excel?
Quote from: Let Me Win on Oct 05, 08:48 AM 2018
I would like someone who has coding skills to check something for me.
I am willing to make a small donation to your PayPal account for your trouble.
I've given up on receiving donations since these promises never were fulfilled 2 in 2. !!!!
So anyways, just spent a half hour doing the following attached Excel file. Choose type of EC in the blue cell, enter or copy/paste nrs in proper column.
It's not a million spins, but 10k.
Thanks for the excel sheet.
I have discovered that once I fall 150 wins behind the casino I can never recover flat betting.
Would the maths coders agree with that figure?
Normy would it be possible to add some betting options to your RX script?
The right place for a quote is there: link:://norcosoft.com/BotRequestForm.html
But i can do it for free if it's less than 10 minutes... 8)
I'm happy to pay you some dollars. Send me a PM with your PayPal email address and I will arrange it.
I'm happy to share the code with the rest of the forum should anyone want it.
So the staking is as described in the Project 202 thread on here but I will outline the basic rules here:
I'm sure there will be a few back and forth moments until everything is 100% correct but there is no hurry.
So the bet selection method Red or Black remains the same as it is now; nothing needs to be changed there as it's already beautiful.
The staking is 15 levels.
Level 1 we flat bet 1 unit and mark our score win or lose until either we show a balance of at least + (0.50) when we reset and start again.
Or we show a loss of - 10 in which case we move up to Level 2 where we bet 2 units per spin until either our score is level or we are losing 20 spins more than the casino in which case we move up to level 3 etc etc until the final level which is 15.
The total bankroll required is £1,200 (English pounds because I'm English) or 1,200 units depending on where you are from!
Am I crazy enough to risk losing £1,200 to win 0.50p ? Yes, Sir I am ;D
Why 50p? because I always play La partages rules :thumbsup:
I've also attached a copy of the rules from the book I follow (Ten Days At Monte Carlo At The Banks Expense) as perhaps he explains it better than I.
Lets try this version. Not sure if i understand the score correctly.
Stake start at 1 unit (1 to 15), we cannot bet .5 in Rx coding...
Many thanks but it is not stacking correctly.
We always bet in whole units 1, 2, 3 etc up to 15 the RX bot itself can be told the rules are la partage roulette and deal with the bank balance.
The RX script should be able to tell that + 0.50 is a winning session and to end the session.
Example: Spin 1 is zero our running score for the betting is - 0.50 but our running score for how many wins or losses we are ahead or behind with the casino.
So spin 1 is zero spin 2 we win
Our betting balance score is + 0.50
Anytime our betting balance is a plus of 0.50 or greater the session ends.
As soon as our running score or how many wins or losses we are ahead or behind with the casino reaches - 10 we then increase our stake to 2 units pers spin.
We carry on staking 2 units until our betting balance is either 0.00 or +0.50 or greater both of which result in an end session.
If we carry on losing and we find our betting balance is now - 30 units we start betting 3 units per spin etc etc
I will try to post some examples in another post later if this is not clearer.
Trying to put it another way....
The betting balance only decides end of session. So any plus ends session or the betting balance being at a minus and then returning to either 0.00 or any plus amount ends the session.
The amount we stake per spin either 1 unit or 2 units or 3 units etc up to 15 is decided by wins or losses in relation to the casino.
So if the casino wins 10 spins more than you then you stake 2 units if the bad luck continues and the casino is now winning 20 spins more than you then you stake 3 units if the bad luck still continues and the casino keeps on winning when you find that the casino has won 30 more spins than you then you stake 4 units per spin etc up to a maximum of 15 units.
So each staking level could go on for 100's of spins in theory but the only way it can go up to the next level is if the casino pulls a further 10 wins ahead of the player.
You never go down a staking level if you start winning you carry on until the balance is either 0.00 or + 50p or greater at which point you end the session.
Hello,
Use the attach spin file for your test please, there is up and down in it. (you have to place it in the "import" folder of Rx)
Then let me know at which spin you see an error and explain it.
And please, lets continu in private mail (support@norcosoft.com) until we have a good .dgt file to put here. 8)
Regards, Normand