The way of playing it is betting ten splits: 1-2, 4-7, 11-12, 13-14, 15-18, 16-19, 20-21, 28-29, 27-30, 33-36. These numbers will be called 'Positive Numbers', and the remaining ones will be called 'Negative Numbers'.
If you take a closer look at the wheel and the numbers to bet, you can see how the sectors are accommodated.
Wait some consecutive Negative Numbers and then start. If you want to play it safely, wait for at least five Negative Numbers.
First ball: 1 chip to each split
Second Ball: 1 chip to each split. If you win here you will end up losing just 2 chips.
Third Ball: 4 chips to each split.
Fourth ball: 10 chips to each split.
Note: You will rarely have to bet 10 chips if you wait for at least 5 or 6 Negative Numbers.
Thanks God and Good Morning All.
Thank you Andre Chass.
Sorry Andre I don't like it but in fact I LOVE IT. Great system. Thanks for sharing.
Love and Light
SugTips
Quote from: sugtips on Mar 05, 11:33 AM 2019
Thanks God and Good Morning All.
Thank you Andre Chass.
Sorry Andre I don't like it but in fact I LOVE IT. Great system. Thanks for sharing.
Love and Light
SugTips
It's a pleasure my friend!
Here's an example of how a compact system like this can be tested as a discrete probability distribution without simulation on a computer.
Formula:
Mean = Expected value of w = sum of w x probability(w)
Standard Deviation = SQRT(sumw^2xpr(w) - (sumw x pr (w))^2)
w is the amount won or loss (-) after each of 5 events. Winning on the first, second, third, or fourth balls. Or losing on the fourth ball.
Pr (Win) = 20/37 = 0.541
Pr (loss) = 17/37 = 0.459
The Prob of an event is obtained by multiplying the probabilities for wins and losses in that event together.
Event Prob w wpr(w) w^2pr(w)
W 0.541 +8 4.328 34.634
LW 0.249 -2 -0.498 0.996
LLW 0.114 +12 1.368 16.416
LLLW 0.052 +20 1.040 20.800
LLLL 0.044 -160 -7.040 1126.4
Sum 1.0 -0.802 1199.24
Expected value of the win is -0.802 or a loss of 0.802 units.
Standard deviation is
SQRT (1199.24 - (0.802)^2)
= (1199.24-0.64)^1/2 = 34.6 units
The standard deviation is quite high due to the swingy event of losing 160 units after 4 tries which will happen 4.4% of the time or one every 22.7 attempts.
If anyone can spot an error, please advise as I didn't do a huge amount of checking.
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 05, 10:33 PM 2019The standard deviation is quite high due to the swingy event of losing 160 units after 4 tries which will happen 4.4% of the time or one every 22.7 attempts.
Many thanks for your reply firefox.
Ok now it's very hard for me to understand math part, but what I understand from the quoted paragraph above is that after 4 tries the winning chance is 4.4%.
But am playing only after 3 virtual losses, for 4 spins. So what will be the winning chance at 7th try?
(sorry for my bad English, it's not my first language)
Thanks
SugTips
Quote from: sugtips on Mar 05, 11:08 PM 2019
Many thanks for your reply firefox.
Ok now it's very hard for me to understand math part, but what I understand from the quoted paragraph above is that after 4 tries the winning chance is 4.4%.
But am playing only after 3 virtual losses, for 4 spins. So what will be the winning chance at 7th try?
(sorry for my bad English, it's not my first language)
Thanks
SugTips
After 4 (or less) tries you will either have won some number of units (about 6.525 on average) with probability 96.6% . Expectation 6.238 units
Or after 4 tries you will have lost them all (-160) with probability 4.4%. Expectation 0.04x-160 = -7.04 units.
The difference 6.238-7.04 is the total expected change to the bankroll -0.802 units.
Unfortunately the hypothetical losses make no difference to the calculation. The wheel has no memory. After you start betting, those losses have aready occurred with a probability of 1.0 .
You can multiply everything by a probability of 1.0 if you want, but it will make no difference to the results. The fact those losses are helping you are just an illusion.
You may want to consider if we toss a fair coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row....
What is the chance it will now come up tails? It's still 50%.... and still 50% for heads..... assuming it is a fair coin. The coin, like the wheel, has no memory. We start from scratch every play.
With this system, most of the time you will post a steady win.
That's great but one time in 22.7 tries you lose 160. Those big losses will be just enough to make it a steady loser in the long term.
I'm not knocking the system, you can be the judge of it! 1 in 22.7 is quite small. You may go a whole evening and rack up 220 units without a loss hitting.
The next evening you may get two quick losses setting you back -320. That's the way it can work. You're losing only -0.802 units every trial of the system so over 100 trials that's 80 units loss on average.
I'm just giving the mathematics of the long term and how to calculate them without computer simulation. It's a pretty swingy system with Standard deviation 34 units and it could be profitable short term if you dodge the 4 losses in a row with a bit of luck!
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 06, 12:09 AM 2019it could be profitable short term if you dodge the 4 losses in a row with a bit of luck!
Sir, what are the chances of 7 losses in row for this system?
Thanks
Okay, I understand all the math here. But as everyone already knows, it is impossible to have any chance of winning without using some kind of trigger and a progression. If so, please tell me otherwise.
No hg here
Quote from: sugtips on Mar 06, 12:46 AM 2019
Sir, what are the chances of 7 losses in row for this system?
Thanks
The chances of 7 losses in a row are (17/37)^7 = 0.004 or 1 chance in 232.5.
But that's not the same thing as waiting for three losses and then start betting!
The chances of 4 more losses now making 7 in total are (1.0) x (17/37)^4 = 0.044 or 1 chance in 22.7. 1.0 at the front because the three losses have already occured with probability 1.0
Thinking they are the same thing is what is known as gambler's illusion or gambler's fallacy. It's one of the things which keeps casinos in business and pays for the plush carpets, the hotels, and the suits.
Don't take my word for it though. Give it a go. Wait for three losses and then start betting. It should soon become clear after a few hundred trials which is the truth for the chance of 4 more losses ... 1 in 22 chance or 1 in 232 chance :smile:
Quote from: Andre Chass on Mar 06, 01:07 AM 2019But as everyone already knows, it is impossible to have any chance of winning without using some kind of trigger and a progression. If so, please tell me otherwise.
Why would a trigger change odds?
Why would changing bet size change odds?
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 06, 01:33 AM 2019Don't take my word for it though. Give it a go. Wait for three losses and then start betting. It should soon become clear after a few hundred trials which is the truth for the chance of 4 more losses ... 1 in 22 chance or 1 in 232 chance
Many thanks for your reply sir.
I will take that chance and play it after virtual losses. I understand what is the gambler's fallacy, but that what is making money for me continously, so I can't give up easily. Or may be I am so lucky, so let it be.
Thanks and regards,
SugTips
Quote from: sugtips on Mar 06, 12:46 AM 2019
Sir, what are the chances of 7 losses in row for this system?
Thanks
Wait for at least 5 losses in a row.
I usually wait for 6 or 7 losses.
My two cents
Quote from: Andre Chass on Mar 06, 01:45 AM 2019
Wait for at least 5 losses in a row.
I usually wait for 6 or 7 losses.
My two cents
Thanks for your reply sir.
I understand waiting for 6 or 7 virtual losses make this system very concrete but I mostly play at B&M casinos and for 6-7 virtual losses I have to wait a long, so I play with very small amount to get trigger and then play big once it passes more losses.
regards
Quote from: Andre Chass on Mar 06, 01:07 AM 2019
Okay, I understand all the math here. But as everyone already knows, it is impossible to have any chance of winning without using some kind of trigger and a progression. If so, please tell me otherwise.
No hg here
I don't know about that. I could flat bet 1 unit on black for 100 spins and get 60 blacks, 2 zeros, and 38 reds.
I've won 60 lost 38 and lost 1. A tidy profit of 21 units with not a trigger or progression in sight!
On average though I will post a very small steady loss flat betting.
Using a negative progression such as Marty, Labby, or any of the others my win/loss pattern will be different. Most of the time I'll post a small steady win until I get a bad run. Then I'll have a thumping loss. Triggers do not affect the a priori odds in any way. That's mis application of a Baysian model to a random game.
It depends how you want to play. Steady wins and a big crash, or steady losses with slightly less steady wins.
In the end though the progression players will lose more because they are exposing bigger bets/action to the house edge.
I'm not knocking your dark and light system by the way. There's always a lot of talk of systems testing or paying for software or paying someone to code.
I just wanted to show people how they could save money/time and easily get a handle on a compact system like this with a back of envelope calculation. This system is a good one to apply discrete probability theory to.
Quote from: sugtips on Mar 06, 01:39 AM 2019
Many thanks for your reply sir.
I will take that chance and play it after virtual losses. I understand what is the gambler's fallacy, but that what is making money for me continously, so I can't give up easily. Or may be I am so lucky, so let it be.
Thanks and regards,
SugTips
Let us know how you get on!
It's a good system for a lucky player. Very swingy .... and you will do well if you catch the right swings.
But at least you will be prepared better if a loss/losses come up ;D
Quote from: Steve on Mar 06, 01:35 AM 2019
Why would a trigger change odds?
The wheel begins to spin. The casino owner comes to you and says: you'll get ten spins. If the black hits 10 times in a row you win $ 100,000. If not, you pay me $100,000. Would you accept the proposal?
Do you know what I mean?
We all know that each spin is independent of the other, but what counts is the sampling.
A sampling of ten spins for example. Or using a coin...
I'm not talking about starting to bet after the 9th spins. I'm talking about the sampling.
Starting to bet after 9 spins would be like betting after a trigger though.
9 blacks come up, the odds of another black are still 18/37.
Some players may think black has a better chance because they are "following the wheel". Others will think red is better because "red must be due". They are both wrong.
Waiting for three or more darks to ocurr and betting on light is exactly the same thing. You are are playing for a change, when in fact the odds have not altered. Odds of light are still 20/37 and odds of 4 darks causing you to lose 160 are still (17/37 )^4 = 0.044 or 4.4%
You may as well have started betting without regard to what has gone previously.
test, real numbers,
Play 7 Virtual Loss, 1,1,4,10
the longest "negative numbers" are 15
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/07/sourcee47cd.jpg) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/U6wyf)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/07/sourcebb4de.jpg) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/U66W1)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/07/source776f8.jpg) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/U69B5)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/07/source21b87.jpg) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/U6EZr)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/07/source7c9f5.jpg) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/U6Wwx)
Nice graphs. As I said, it can do well but really swingy.
It seems to be dropping at least 320 each time. Ie runs of 8 negatives. I would have expected more drops of 160, just a loss of one line of capital?
That seems to a bit strange there aren't these in the data.
because this dgt. file does not play split,
but plays numbers
Sorry to interupt but the odds of one more black is 18/37 right. The odds of 9 in a row is like 1/500 or something right.
Rx code:
system "Andre20"
{ or 10 Virt.loss 1,2,5,11,25,56,126 (5000u) }
method "main"
begin
While Starting a New Session
begin
Set List [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,4,10] to Record "progres" Data
Copy List [1,2,4,7,11,12,13,14,15,18,20,21,16,19,27,30,28,29,33,36] to Record "rnum20" Layout
//call "place bets"
end
copy Last Number to Record "last number" Layout
If Record "last number" Layout Found within Record "rnum20" Layout
Begin
Put 1 to Record "progres" data index
end
else
begin
Add 1 to Record "progres" Data index
end
Put 100% of Record "progres" Data to Record "rnum20" Layout List
End
Quote from: Rufius on Mar 07, 09:41 AM 2019
because this dgt. file does not play split,
but plays numbers
Ah, so you are betting 10 straight up on 20 etc?
That's why the wins and losses are double?
Quote from: Anastasius on Mar 07, 09:45 AM 2019
Sorry to interupt but the odds of one more black is 18/37 right. The odds of 9 in a row is like 1/500 or something right.
1÷(18/37)^9
= 1 in 630.4 chance
Probability of one more black now is 18/37, correct.
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 06, 11:13 PM 2019
You may as well have started betting without regard to what has gone previously.
Thats why playing repeaters or uniques doesn work...
But a lot of member here claim they have the HG using this strategy...
Turbogenius, passionRuleta, etc
A lot of people here claim a lot if things.
1x0 = 0 = 2x0
1x0=2x0
1x 0/0 = 2x0/0
=> 1=2
Much of it seems to be backed up by carefully "selected" trials on dodgy RNG or platforms which allow doubling up 12x, unlike any casino you will find in real life!
I'm playing roulette all day long just for fun.
This system is showing good results. 28 bets without loss. ;D
I'm waiting for 5 losses and then I start betting.
I wanna see how far this system works.
35 rounds without loss.
Now waiting for 6 negative numbers. (virtual losses).
Luck?
42 rounds wins
1 round loss (160 units)
sugtips
What about your results?
Are you still playing this system?
48 wins
1 loss
Do somebody else have tested this system?
Quote from: Andre Chass on Jun 18, 02:47 PM 2019
sugtips
What about your results?
Are you still playing this system?
48 wins
1 loss
Do somebody else have tested this system?
Yes am still playing this system. But always wait for 5-7 virtual losses.
Many thanks Andre Sir.
How long does it take to wait for 5 to 7 virtuell losses?
And how big (units) is the average win?
Quote from: Tekunda on Jun 22, 07:36 PM 2019
How long does it take to wait for 5 to 7 virtuell losses?
And how big (units) is the average win?
I watch six wheels simultaneously. It may take 15 minutes, 20 minutes, etc ... It will depend on how many wheels you will watch on your screen.
PS: I'm a baccarat player. But I use this system and I get great results
to have less waiting, just create a dgt that contains more strings and play the one that has reached the expected delay first
Quote from: puntoit on Jun 25, 06:54 PM 2019
to have less waiting, just create a dgt that contains more strings and play the one that has reached the expected delay first
Thanks Puntoit for your message.
I don't understand, please tell me in detail, how to reduce waiting time.
thanks.
bump for new testing
Quote from: Andre Chass on Jun 18, 02:47 PM 2019
sugtips
What about your results?
Are you still playing this system?
48 wins
1 loss
Do somebody else have tested this system?
waiting for 5-7 virtual losses taking long, most win comes after 3 VL.
what to do?
Quote from: sugtips on Jan 21, 08:19 AM 2022
waiting for 5-7 virtual losses taking long, most win comes after 3 VL.
what to do?
What to do ?
You can’t do anything
Thank you RouletteBeater Sir for replying.