hi folks,
das anybody know a money management plan that uses/ works with percentages?
lets say I know that I will win at least 45% of my even money bets within a 150 spin window. is there a moneymanagement/ formula one could use that sort of "covers the bottom line"?
thanks for your input
cheers
hans :-)
You can use Kelly betting.
The fraction of your bankroll you should risk on any try in a roughly even chance game = 2p-1
Where p is the probability of winning.
In the case of roulette p=18/37 so 2p-1 is 36/37 - 1 = -1/37 = -2.7%
The negative implies that your best strategy is not to bet at all, since it is a negative expectation game!
However let's assume your chance of winning was 52/100.
Now 2p-1 is 104/100 -1 = 0.04 so you should risk 4% of your bankroll on each bet.
If your chance of winning was 55/100 you should risk 110/100-1 = 10% of your current bankroll on each bet.
All the way up to a dead cert 2x (100/100) -1 = 1 or 100% of your bankroll.
This is really designed for a positive expectation game eg Sports betting where you have inside information, or advantage play where you have a calculated edge.
However, if you don't have an edge and still want to bet, and stay in the game for longest, or longer if you are lucky, you can bet 1% of your current bank roll. Or another strategy is just to make the minimum bet allowed.
If you want to risk your entire capital in a short period while having a chance of making some decent gains, then you could use D'Alambert or Labouchere progressions.
Moving on to what you probably really wanted to know, covering bottom line if you can guarantee you will win 45% of bets, use a Labouchere series. It only requires you win just over 1 bet in 2 or about 35-40% of bets. It's somewhat unrealistic because how can you ever guarantee you will win 45%? But if you could, then Labouchere is the way to go. D'Alambert also performs well, even when a small majority of wins are against you eg 55%.
However, both these methods leave you in a big hole if the wheel is say 70/30 against you, even in a short period like 150 spins they will decimate your capital or cause its entire loss.
thanks for replying. :)
this is not exactly what I'm after. I'm looking for something that relies on the percentage. in my flatbet testing I've always reached a profit within my certain spin range. so "leaving while in profit" would already do the trick. still I wonder if there is a way of calculating stakes knowing one will end up with a certain minimum winrate.
could the "dilution formula" be turned into a mm plan?
deleted ... double posting]
If you know in advance you will win 45% distributed across the 150, then Labouchere will give always give you a profit if you play to the end. Flatbet always will give you a loss if you play to the end.
As per my second post above.