I've been missing a long time from the forum. So, first of all, HI to all the old members that I knew and WELCOME to any new members here :)
I've had small success in the past with some systems but I made a pause from roulette since it was taking much of my time and I was focused more on e-commerce stuff, marketing, trying to dip a bit into investing, trading etc.
Recently I've found a way that gives me a positive return on sports betting. It's not a huge sample but I trust it more than the 10,000 test spins on roulette because I don't test against randomness that will eventually eat up my bankroll combined with the house edge. It is based on past games and statistics providing you with value bets when odds of winning are higher than the odds the bookie offers (roulette ball has no memory but football teams, stats and humans DO have!)
So anyway, with this "system" after 453 games I'm +11 units. Small sample but yet again, it's doesn't test random events so it's safe enough I believe. I had the same positive outcome throughout the 400+ games, not ups and lows.
My questions is, what appropriate money management could I use to increase my winnings? Flat betting is a success but I guess since it's a positive return I could bump it up with some progression or some other way...
The system has odds averaging around 1.40 (you bet 1 unit , if you win you get 1,40 back aka +0.40 units profit)
MOST of the odds are lower than 1.40 (1.15, 1.20, 1.25 etc) and FEWER odds are higher at around 2.20, 2.50, 3.50 etc and that's why averaging 1.40
I've tried a positive progression since I get streaks of many wins in a row, to cover any losses I had. It works well since I increased from $400 starting bankroll to $2000+ (Excel calculations) but I had some spikes in the graphs and deep betting like in most progressions. Deep like having to bet $500 on a $2000 bankroll, or sometimes even leaving me with $0 on bankroll and lots of money in stake. Ngeative progression like martingale I believe is pointless since I get fewer losses and many wins with low odds won't make it work.
Anything you believe would work better and smoothier? Any thoughts are welcomed!
Hava a nice day everyone! :)
Hi BellagioOwner, how are you sir?
Combine 2-3 games of low odds, odds will become 2+, then use any even money negative progression
Just an idea
Hi Sugtips! Nice to meet you! I may give it a try. Looks like this way I could open up many betting strategies and MM that are based on EC bets, so could be worth the try. I was also thinking maybe trying some Fibonacci sequence but I'll start with combining them in 2-3 together
Neither positive progressions where you bet with the money you have won, nor negative where you bet with your own capital, work to give you a long term profit at Roulette. There is no method of money management which will be successful, including flat bets or raised bets of any size.
The only way to win at Roulette is by increasing prediction accuracy.
Similar to sports betting, if you can increase prediction accuracy by inside information or knowledge that other punters and the bookmaker do not have, then you will win.
Otherwise, if you just make random bets on the same information as other punters you will lose as the casino/bookie offer unfair odds.
Firefox
I agree with you!
But what are the methods that can increase accuracy in the game of roulette? For now let’s ignore computer or visual ballistics !
Suppose you have to place bet before ball launch, what systems are you going to use to increase ur accuracy ?
If you ignore computers or VB you are left with biased wheels which are rare nowadays or dealers signature type methods which have very short optimal periods of play.
I see now original question was more about sports betting with an edge.
If you are sure you have an edge then it depends what you want your win/loss cycles to be. Negative progression gives you a steady income with the occasional big loss. Positive progression requires a smaller bankroll gives you a steady loss with the occasional spectacular win which outweighs your losses.
I think you are better off flat betting but increasing the size as your bank roll increases. Check out Kelly betting or if you don't want to bother with that, just bet 1/100 or 1/50 of your stack.
But progressions do not alter the amount of your long term win or loss, they just alter the win/loss patterns.
Hi Firefox! Nice to mee you and the other people commenting here that I may not know. Yes, I agree with you about Advantage Play on Roulette and having a positive edge against the house edge as pretty much no system can beat the mathematical disadvantage you always have on every spin. You can see on many of my older posts I say that a lot too, and I criticize most systems, gambler's fallacy etc. Same goes for sports betting since there is again a house edge built in it. If they believe that a team has 50% chance to win they'll give you 1.87 1.90 odd etc.
I was indeed referring as you saw on my original post about value bets where the expected win ratio is higher than the odd the bookie offers. there are situations that such a thing exists but it's somewhat rare. Anyway, not the issue for now :)
I'll try the stitching games together to build odds around 2 to try various systems and MM I have on my mind. I DO too like flat betting but it will be a slow process on this one, so since I know flatbet is slow but positive, I was thinking to experiment with other better MM, more lucrative at the price of bit riskier (taking into consideration that it's a positive edge in the long run)
What is the Kelly betting? Having to do with Kelly criterion I see on google? I've tried approaching D'Alembert but I'll give it a try with Labouchere combining the bets together for odds around 2
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 19, 11:58 AM 2019I see now original question was more about sports betting with an edge
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 19, 11:58 AM 2019Negative progression gives you a steady income with the occasional big loss
Who are you to decide this my friend.
Millions of people around the world making money in sports betting and in stock/forex market. That's a fact.
Quote from: BellagioOwner on Mar 19, 12:46 PM 2019What is the Kelly betting?
I am surprised, you don't know basics. I suggest first learn each and every word/term related to sports betting. Check glossary of sports betting. Google.
Regards
Sugtips
Sugtips, not sure what was your point to make on Firefox but that's between the 2 of you I guess :)
As far for the Kelly criterion, yeah I have no problem saying I didn't know it :) I googled it and read it before your answer because I do found it interesting. We all learn new stuff. As I understand it though it mainly will work on deciding the amount for flat bets, no that much on any system or progression. But nonetheless interesting and I'll take it into account
Quote from: sugtips on Mar 19, 02:15 PM 2019Who are you to decide this my friend.
Millions of people around the world making money in sports betting and in stock/forex market. That's a fact.
I didn't decide negative progression gives steady gains and then a big loss. It's a mathematical fact.
And I'm talking about a negative expectation game.
Of course it's possible to win overall on Forex or sports. Those are positive expectation games in the right circumstances.
Quote from: BellagioOwner on Mar 19, 02:40 PM 2019
Sugtips, not sure what was your point to make on Firefox but that's between the 2 of you I guess :)
As far for the Kelly criterion, yeah I have no problem saying I didn't know it :) I googled it and read it before your answer because I do found it interesting. We all learn new stuff. As I understand it though it mainly will work on deciding the amount for flat bets, no that much on any system or progression. But nonetheless interesting and I'll take it into account
Kelly betting combines flat betting with a mild positive progression. It is the best way forward in a positive expectation game. But if you don't like it try Contra D'alambert. It is a similar idea ... increase bets when you win, decrease when you lose. Positive progressions are good if you have an advantage, and Kelly is the optimum strategy.
Quote from: sugtips on Mar 19, 02:15 PM 2019
Who are you to decide this my friend.
Millions of people around the world making money in sports betting and in stock/forex market. That's a fact.
Regards
Sugtips
Nobody is winning in the long run by running up as you lose progressions without first having an edge over the casino. ::)
Up as you lose progressions aka chasing your losses is a fools folly.
General,
Are you and firefox is the same person? His appreance and your disappearance raise that question. Or were u busy with junk wheel?
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 19, 10:39 AM 2019
If you ignore computers or VB you are left with biased wheels which are rare nowadays or dealers signature type methods which have very short optimal periods of play.
General , learn something and accept his writing. Your junk wheel got its place, in “Museumâ€
I don't doubt you can still make from biased wheels. The General is a pro player, so he can afford to put a lot more time into finding and exploiting opportunities. I made £1000s from biased wheels 20 years ago but as an amateur AP, I found them much more difficult to find after year 2000.
Quote from: Madi on Mar 19, 04:51 PM 2019
General,
Are you and firefox is the same person? His appreance and your disappearance raise that question. Or were u busy with junk wheel?
I can guarantee we are not the same person. He's in the States and I'm UK. No doubt Steve can confirm our ips are different.
Last week someone asked what I was selling, this week Caleb and I are the same person. If you lot concentrated on how to actually beat the game, instead of on conspiracy theory, you would do a lot better!
Quote from: Madi on Mar 19, 04:55 PM 2019
General , learn something and accept his writing. Your junk wheel got its place, in “Museumâ€
Madi,
You shouldn't try to find or play a biased wheel. Based on your past posts, I feel that a part time job in either the house cleaning or fast food industry would be a better fit for you. ;)
Quote from: MadiGeneral,
Are you and firefox is the same person? His appreance and your disappearance raise that question. Or were u busy with junk wheel?
No, Firefox and I are not the same person. His knowledge is vast you would be wise to study what he writes.
Sincerely,
-Steve
Quote from: The General on Mar 19, 07:01 PM 2019
Madi,
You shouldn't try to find or play a biased wheel. Based on your past posts, I feel that a part time job in either the house cleaning or fast food industry would be a better fit for you. ;)
Thanks general for your advice. Currently i m working with a nearly six figure salary yearly and note ( i m not on dole money).
Why dont you take your own advice and give the junk wheel relief.
oh the good old times with cyber insulting and derailing the main post :) Anyway, I got my advices I guess. I'll try stitching up to odds of 2 for testings and another test I'll make is using Kelly bet.
Firefox if I got it right from wiki reading and your posts, with Kelly I actually put portions of the bankroll depending how sure/value the bet is and how much of a positive edge (advantage) I have on the bet.Got it right? I also found the type to calculate and an online calculator.
PS: Let's spice up the chat a bit. The only systems I'd probably play on roulette would have been around repeaters in 37 cycles. There must be something good there. :)
And I'm interested sometime in the future trying Steve's computers for online live roulette. But the cost says no for me yet
You got it! Here's a post I made in another thread about Kelly Bets.
Quote
The fraction of your bankroll you should risk on any try in a roughly even chance game = 2p-1
Where p is the probability of winning.
In the case of roulette p=18/37 so 2p-1 is 36/37 - 1 = -1/37 = -2.7%
The negative implies that your best strategy is not to bet at all, since it is a negative expectation game!
However let's assume your chance of winning was 52/100.
Now 2p-1 is 104/100 -1 = 0.04 so you should risk 4% of your bankroll on each bet.
If your chance of winning was 55/100 you should risk 110/100-1 = 10% of your current bankroll on each bet.
All the way up to a dead cert 2x (100/100) -1 = 1 or 100% of your bankroll.
This is really designed for a positive expectation game eg Sports betting where you have inside information, or advantage play where you have a calculated edge.
As for computers, I personally wouldn't use one in the UK. Although technically they are not illegal here like in the States, Casinos are on the look out. Having an ear piece, hand in a pocket, wheel watching, late bets and winning, blue tooth signal etc.
They mostly tolerate VB players as they generally have a lower edge so the casino changes the conditions and they can't prove anything.
But a computer can really milk them quickly, so they will ban suspects. And a lot of casinos come under the same group. So if you get banned by Grosvenor you'll get banned from all their casinos and they swap info so you may find yourself banned by Coral, Genting, Stanley. ... loads of them. Suddenly, nowhere near to play.
So personally computers are not for me, but given the right country they may be OK.
I meant online live wheel roulette with a live video stream on the wheel and ball not in B&M but still, THIS is a reason why I lost interest in roulette. Advantage Play is limited either to stay under the radar or you get banned. The viable solution I see is giving info to other players through equips or making and running groups of players which I'm not interested. That's why I give it a try at sports bets which is much harder to get located or banned or to prove anything and there is not any (or at least much higher) limit to bet.
PS: That -2.7% on Kelly on roulette it doesn't mean that you should not bet. It indicates that you should bet the opposite side of the bet where the advantage is. So it indicates to bet 2.7% of your bankroll that the EC bet WILL NOT come. But the casino doesn't allow betting AGAINST something coming up so you have nothing to play anyway :)
Bellagip what do u mean the casino does not allow u to bet against something coming up.
Do u mean in roulette ?
Correct about Kelly, but casino does not allow you to bet against something, so it comes to the same thing.
And if they did allow you to bet against something, you can be sure they would alter the pay off for that bet to give you equally poor odds. Like a bookmaker the odds would add up not add up to 100% or 1.
Quote from: Anastasius on Mar 19, 10:09 PM 2019Bellagip what do u mean the casino does not allow u to bet against something coming up.
Do u mean in roulette ?
Yes in roulette. I haven't thought it in other games but I guess the same would apply not to hurt their house edge. I mean you can bet on a number or set of numbers coming up but you can't bet against it. You can't bet "NO RED" for example which would turn 0 and house edge on your side. And even if you could make a "NO RED" bet I'm sure the payout would be changed as Firefox mentioned too, from 1:1 to something less
In europe we can bet one dollar .one zero. Bet on anything and they provide us with pen n paper and encourage us to record numbers
Do u mean no red like bet one black
You can’t turn a Negative return into positive whatever MM You use.
I didn't say you can turn negative expectancy in earnings using any MM whatsoever. I was speaking for maximizing profits on a positive flat bet sports betting.
So, anyway, flat betting I ended up positive, and at exactly the same bets, same orders, same results using Kelly bet (and half kelly bet) I ended up big minus. Is it possible or have I made any mistake in Excel calculations on my Kelly bets? :)
Have you overestimated your advantage? In which case you may be betting too much if your true advantage wasn't prevelant in the sample. Kelly Bets for small advantage is quite similar to what you may do flat betting eg 100 units bet 3,4,5 on an even chance. Except of course, as your bankroll increases to 200 you'll be slightly increasing then doubling.
Only thing I can think of is if you had a high advantage registered and your bankroll got thumped as it didn't show early, but later on it did show but your bets were then lower than flat and you didn't recover as well.
But provided your advantage and percentage is correct it's the optimum way to increase. Like the Contra D'Alambert, you take advantage of compound interest on a winning streak as you win and increase your bet.
If your advantage doesn't show you may lose a bit more, but that's offset by compound gains when it does, and if it's an advantage, it's more likely to show than not.... so the theory goes anyway!
Edge/expectation x confidence level in the playing conditions = bank to bet ratio
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 21, 01:53 PM 2019Have you overestimated your advantage? In which case you may be betting too much if your true advantage wasn't prevelant in the sample.
That's what I thought too. I'll try reducing my expected probability to see where this will go. It's weird to me that flat betting worked well.