Here's a question for the unique number guys...and law of the thirds folks.
On the single zero wheel you've just witnessed 36 unique numbers hit. The only number that has yet to hit is the number 4, all of the other numbers have already hit. If the number 4 hits on the next spin, then it means that all of the numbers will have hit exactly once in 37 spins.
The numbers that have already hit: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,0
The number that has not hit: 4
On the next spin( the 37th spin) is the number 4 more or less likely to hit than say.. the number 5? (Number 5 has already hit once.)
Which number do you feel has a higher probability of hitting on the next spin and why?
In the one last individual spin its 1/37
As a whole the event of the 36 uniques is 1 in however many million and the.completion of the last number to make 37 adds however many thousand or million to the overall events probability.
Therefore this event will surely happen but it may take many spins . Its not an everyday event like 20 uniques etc
My opinion.
Quote from: Anastasius on Mar 24, 12:56 PM 2019
In the one last individual spin its 1/37
As a whole the event of the 36 uniques is 1 in however many million and the.completion of the last number to make 37 adds however many thousand or million to the overall events probability.
Therefore this event will surely happen but it may take many spins . Its not an everyday event like 20 uniques etc
My opinion.
It's a chance of 37! (37^36) = 4.825E-14
(Correct me someone if this is wrong)
But the chance of the last number adding is just 1/37th of that chance above, not 1000"s or millions times less.
Quote from: The General on Mar 24, 12:50 PM 2019
Here's a question for the unique number guys...and law of the thirds folks.
On the single zero wheel you've just witnessed 36 unique numbers hit. The only number that has yet to hit is the number 4, all of the other numbers have already hit. If the number 4 hits on the next spin, then it means that all of the numbers will have hit exactly once in 37 spins.
The numbers that have already hit: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,0
The number that has not hit: 4
On the next spin( the 37th spin) is the number 4 more or less likely to hit than say.. the number 5? (Number 5 has already hit once.)
Which number do you feel has a higher probability of hitting on the next spin and why?
This is where you have the confusion...
The chances of the next spin being 4 is 1/37 that is true and this never changes.
But now if I group all the numbers into a set of 37 spins.... the chances for the 4 are still 1/37
BUT the math says that more then 34 uniques doesn’t show up before a repeat.
You can run this a trillion times and you won’t find this event.
Right now at this point which Math do you believe? Both math is correct!
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/24/source92a78.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/U4Hg5)
730 sets of 148 spins.
34 non-hit's have hit in all 730 sets.
367 times all 37 have hit in the 148 spin.
So when will you see all 37 in 37 spins.
The maths does not show that 34 uniques don't show up before a repeat.
The maths shows that it is very unlikely. But there is still a small finite chance.
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 24, 03:16 PM 2019
The maths does not show that 34 uniques don't show up before a repeat.
The maths shows that it is very unlikely. But there is still a small finite chance.
Ok the chance is so small that if you find a way to win on this event. When you lose that one time does it really matter?
Theoretically speaking...
If you win 1 unit every 37 spins...
Would it matter if you lose say 100 units if all 37 numbers come out?
If I start with 500 units....
Can I reach 200 unit profit before I lose 100?
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Mar 24, 03:41 PM 2019
Ok the chance is so small that if you find a way to win on this event. When you lose that one time does it really matter?
Theoretically speaking...
If you win 1 unit every 37 spins...
Would it matter if you lose say 100 units if all 37 numbers come out?
If I start with 500 units....
Can I reach 200 unit profit before I lose 100?
Well said touché
The point is, you can't profit from any of this.
Say you turn up at a table and see 33 uniques.
What do you bet on now? Another unique? A repeater.... if so which one(s).
Those 33 uniques are history, the clock resets every spin. The odds of any number now is still 1/37.
You're deluding yourself you have an advantage thrashing around with 1000''s of spins of "testing" and 1000's of pages of spreadsheets.
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 24, 04:43 PM 2019
The point is, you can't profit from any of this.
Say you turn up at a table and see 33 uniques.
What do you bet on now? Another unique? A repeater.... if so which one(s).
Those 33 uniques are history, the clock resets every spin. The odds of any number now is still 1/37.
You're deluding yourself you have an advantage thrashing around with 1000''s of spins of "testing" and 1000's of pages of spreadsheets.
No, YOU can’t profit from any of this.
Because you can’t see past the wheel and past the odds of the game.
All the testing and spreadsheets helped see better
But if we expand our boundaries, we will see that these are not blind numbers, but Straights, doubles, dozens, etc ...
We are trying to learn how to play at short distances. Why do we need 14 million spins?
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Mar 24, 05:31 PM 2019
No, YOU can’t profit from any of this.
Because you can’t see past the wheel and past the odds of the game.
All the testing and spreadsheets helped see better
So, 33 uniques occur. How do you now bet to profit?
I know you won't answer, because you don't have an answer!
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 24, 06:16 PM 2019
So, 33 uniques occur. How do you now bet to profit?
I know you won't answer, because you don't have an answer!
To be honest with you depends how I’m playing.
But I would have won way before 33 uniques and multiple wins atleast a minimum of 2 wins
33 uniques equals
Atleast 10 ec cycles
Atleast 8 dozen cycles
Atleast 4 double streets cycles
Atleast 2 street cycles
When I say atleast it means that’s the minimum. Worst case scenario! So normally it’s more.
Also my current game play is streets mixed with unique numbers. So 33 uniques is profitable for me!
The way I would play is to remove a unit off any number that showed up within the street I am playing.
The system profits flatbet over 60 spins. Then playing uniques compliments and gives it the edge to boost it.
My street bet wins flatbet the more spins I bet and the unique play gives me the real profit
Two systems at play all based on info I’ve talked about :thumbsup:
Here's the problem with many systems and system players.
They tend to look at the past spins to reinforce the gambler's fallacy.
For example, red has just hit 14 times in a row, so therefore black must be destined to hit, because the probability of red hitting again are astronomical.
In reality, the only probability that matters is that of the next spin.
The law of the third and unique number cult think in the same way. If 34 or 35 unique numbers have hit, then they feel that the probability of another unique number hitting is astronomical. Consequently they naively believe that they can exploit the past spins by betting on the other 34 or 35 numbers while ignoring the true probability of winning on the next spin. They naively believe that the rare event probability trumps the probability of the next spin.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/24/source23ab5.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/U4yuZ)
The fallacy goes even further. When looking at the past spins they often say, that they would have one on "that sequence" or that their numbers were hitting big and they'd be winning if they just would have bet on them. They remember the ways in which they would have won, but completely ignore all of the ways that they would have lost. ::)
Firefox
What is the chance of 37/37 in a row unique. I dont understand the "e" symbol.
Is it less or greater than 1 in a billion
Thank you for your OPINION.
The FACT is, wherever the repeat ends I am in a profit or worst case scenario - break even.
That is the composition of a winning system.
I’m amazed as how insecure you all are with your B.S (belief systems).
Enjoy watching all those wheels, General.
Quote from: Blueprint on Mar 24, 08:41 PM 2019
Thank you for your OPINION.
The FACT is, wherever the repeat ends I am in a profit or worst case scenario - break even.
That is the composition of a winning system.
I’m amazed as how insecure you all are with your B.S (belief systems).
Enjoy watching all those wheels, General.
Blueprint,
Perhaps you can point to where I am in error? :o
Quote from: Anastasius on Mar 24, 08:41 PM 2019
Firefox
What is the chance of 37/37 in a row unique. I dont understand the "e" symbol.
Is it less or greater than 1 in a billion
E stands for exponent ie something raised to the power of. In this case 10. E14 means x10^14. E-14 means x1/10^14.
In your case it's of the order of 1/10^15 (or 16, I cant quite remember off hand)
1 in a billion is 1/10^9 so it is of the order of a million times less likely than that.
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 24, 09:01 PM 2019
E stands for exponent ie something raised to the power of. In this case 10. E14 means x10^14. E-14 means x1/10^14.
In your case it's of the order of 1/10^15 (or 16, I cant quite remember off hand)
1 in a billion is 1/10^9 so it is of the order of a million times less likely than that.
Unfortunately, the system players are more focused on the past probability 1/10^15 rather than just the probability of winning the very next spin.
What is probabiltiy written like 1/100.000 for example
One of the first times i was at a casino. A random guy told me the first time he ever recorded numbers he saw 37/37 .
Im not sure if he was implying it was a omen that he was some special player or not because i didnt believe him at all. So id like the know the probability in 1/100.000 or whatever because i cant read 10^ e 11^ and ur formulas
Quote from: Anastasius on Mar 24, 09:35 PM 2019
What is probabiltiy written like 1/100.000 for example
1/1,000,000,000,000,000 (a millionth of a billionth)
Have you considered taking some evening classes in maths and probability theory ... it will be very useful and save you tons of money in the long run, if you are going to dabble with roulette. It's not meant to be facetious, just an honest suggestion!
I thought u only need bias and visuals? What does prob theory matter to u if its always 1/37
Also isnt saving tons of money about using self control and using smallest unit size
To me roulies is about statistics and other things.
Would be useful to know but
I asked you in another thread if a die were rolled 25 times without a 6 ocurring then what is the chance that a 6 comes on the next throw. You told me that the chance was increased from 1/6 but the odds remained the same. That's where probability matters. You can elevate yourself above 90% most other gamblers by making the right decision in situations like that.
You don't need to learn that much. Things like permutations and combinations, factorials, powers, tree diagrams, expected value in different situations, combining chances, standard deviation, binomial, normal distribution etc.
You could probably learn a lot on You Tube etc for free. It will be really useful in playing roulette. You can decide better what systems fit your style. (All the random ones lose, but they perform in different ways). You will work out when you have an edge if you get into AP, or how much and why you lose if you don't.
If u test a million spins in sets of uniques until the.first repeat and then re set
The most common amount of unique numbers before a first repeat will be 8.
So how is waiting for 8 uniques then doing 1 bet the same as picking 8 nunbers at random?
A further question i have is what is the mathematical law that causes 8 to always be the most common in this case. Why not sometimes 10 or 12 uniques etc
Quote from: Anastasius on Mar 25, 07:54 AM 2019
A further question i have is what is the mathematical law that causes 8 to always be the most common in this case. Why not sometimes 10 or 12 uniques etc
That's to do with permutations and combinations. N!/(N-R)! R! Etc
If something is more common, there are more ways of arranging that combination of uniques and repeats in all the possible ways of arranging 37 numbers than there are of arranging say 37 uniques.
Look at just 3 numbers
Uniques:
123
132
213
231
312
321
Repeaters:
111
222
333
112
113
131
121
211
311
221
223
212
232
122
322
331
332
313
323
133
233
Each permutation has an equal chance of appearing. 1/27
But the permutations including repeats are 21/27 and the permutations with uniques are 6/27. So even with 3 numbers, you can see the pattern. With more numbers it is even more extreme. If you learned perms and combs theory, you can calculate all that. See how useful it is!
Yes permutations like for 2 ec chance spins is 1/4 ..rr,bb,rb,br
So what about unique singles waiting for the first double up. Why is 8 always the most common. Even if say 10 uniques dominate for a while given.enough spins 8 will end up most common.
So how many times will it go above 8 uniques the return to hit at 8?
And how is this the same as betting 8 at random?
The statistical information is being used. In line with how the stats will end up long term
If chaos was real wouldnt each level have its turn being dominant yet it has an "attraction" to settle at 8 or to gravitate back to 8..
Quote from: The General on Mar 24, 12:50 PM 2019
Here's a question for the unique number guys...and law of the thirds folks.
On the single zero wheel you've just witnessed 36 unique numbers hit. The only number that has yet to hit is the number 4, all of the other numbers have already hit. If the number 4 hits on the next spin, then it means that all of the numbers will have hit exactly once in 37 spins.
The numbers that have already hit: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,0
The number that has not hit: 4
On the next spin( the 37th spin) is the number 4 more or less likely to hit than say.. the number 5? (Number 5 has already hit once.)
Which number do you feel has a higher probability of hitting on the next spin and why?
As I have said on another post:
Odds/probability of a given event does not exist it is a pseudo reality.
There are only probability frequencies in regards to knowledge.
So for example the average person would have a probability of 1/37 for knowing if a 4 would occur.
While a trained precog would have a higher probability for knowing a 4 would occur.
So to answer your question... it depends who is observing.
I don’t think anyone will like my answer but it is the reality.
Well at least you are consistent, PrecogMiles, as in the topic where I asked what number was more likely to come up on the die after 25 throws of 1-5's, you said the chance of a 6 was greater than 1/6. ie You are favouring the restoration of balance, or sleepers over repeaters.
But suppose you had come to the wheel or die cold. Those spins had ocurred in the past, but you had no direct knowledge, as you were not observing.
It's now the same spin/throw. How would your prediction change. Would it be the same or would 4 and 6 still come to mind?
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 25, 04:46 PM 2019
Well at least you are consistent, PrecogMiles, as in the topic where I asked what number was more likely to come up on the die after 25 throws of 1-5's, you said the chance of a 6 was greater than 1/6. ie You are favouring the restoration of balance, or sleepers over repeaters.
But suppose you had come to the wheel or die cold. Those spins had ocurred in the past, but you had no direct knowledge, as you were not observing.
It's now the same spin/throw. How would your prediction change. Would it be the same or would 4 and 6 still come to mind?
I think you have slightly misunderstood my position. I am not in favour of either sleepers or repeaters. I believe those ideas are completely and fundamentally wrong, as they are built on a wrong understanding of probability/knowledge.
My statement was that there is no objective (mathematical) probability. Because in my world, if there is no observer there is no world. Theories are just theories.
It might be hard for most people get their head around, but I will try and explain.
Trichromacy or trichromatism is the possessing of three independent channels for conveying color information, derived from the three different types of cone cells in the eye.
Now imagine if humans never evolved this ability and humans remained Dichromats (2 cone cells). The world would remain in a state of limited color. Imagine if in this world full of Dichromats there was a Trichromat (3 cone cells) surely this individual will gain knowledge which noone else could understand and make predictions more accurately. To be more blunt, in the country of the blind the one eyed man is king.
Second example. Take human beings verses apes. To an ape we would all appear to have precognition. What would make us appear to be precogs is our ability to think abstractly and logically. In the same way within humans there are those that are operating on another level of reasoning.
In your example of the dice. The Mode would always be a single number. All the numbers will never appear equally over 100 throws of the dice. There will always be a Mode. One number that appears more than the others. This is why I say mathematical probability is a pseudo reality.
Now I will talk in more esoteric terms.
The question is what causes a number to appear in a throw or a spin?The answer is
'Random'. Random is an intelligent force. By becoming one with this force, you will understand its behaviour and gain knowledge about the outcome of random events.
Most people are equivalent to Apes or Dichromats. Their ability to perceive the force of 'Random' is almost nonexistent therefore they believe random to be chaotic. Because of their lack of ability in understanding Random they begin to assume probabilities are fixed.
'RANDOM' does not care about those that are blind to it or who refuse to listen to it.
This is why I said that the average person would have a the average probability of knowing what the outcome will be. while a precog will have a higher probability if knowing what the outcome will be. Simply because the precog has a 6th sense and this gives him extra knowledge about the world and about Random.
I hope this is clear.
I dont believe in chaos either
I believe in a ordered universe of ordered systems and a roulette wheel is one too therefore after the 100spins the mode number has been ordered and this can be known beforehand... but telepathy im not so sure..
Quote from: Anastasius on Mar 25, 08:06 PM 2019
I dont believe in chaos either
I believe in a ordered universe of ordered systems
I believe order and chaos are one single concepts, or at least very similar.
A system, or universe, without intervention will try to find it's most stable state. To point a system a tell it is in chaos is actually a system that changes towards a stable state.
Take as an example a coffee cup. Our view of an ordered coffee cup would be for it to remain steady, standing, in one piece. Although we call it order, it is an object, a system, that is full of unstable potentiality: chemical binding between molecules that is only waiting for its intrinsect energy to be released; different parts of the cup at different heigths, waiting to fall and be in a less gravitationaly biased state.
So what we call order is pretty much an unstable state that we struggle to keep. Chaos, so what we percieve as disorder, only helps a system to find rest.
The cup will be in order once all of its parts are equally small and at an equal level.
Let chaos be until it is in order.
Applied to roulette: chaos could be the way, the process, for random to pop out different nrs until they all are equally out. They will probably never be out at the same amount for each, but as the spins go by, the proportional difference between each will be ever smaller. The chaos process to reach equality will never stop, there will always be some ''work'' to be done, but in the end it will be in an state always closer to equality.
My thoughts.
bigbro
the most common singles that make a first double is 8.
and there are many more orders like that eventually that dont transgress too far for u to miss. for example the singles will go to 34 uniques or more after however many spins. but your tests showed u can get closer boundarys like 25 numbers. and iv been playing manually and the boundarys become less.
I want to see the 10th level but im doing maually and iv never bet more than 6 numbers i can tell from your earlier graphs the boundarys are absolutely lowered so in fact your initial test is good. 6 numbers before a hit in 100 mini games
Nothing chaos about it. In fact perfect order . Slight transgressions but order
Here. I think I showed it to you already but again:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/26/source.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/UJGLU)
On the right: there is an average of 4.43 2-hitters before the 3-hitter comes; whe the 10-hitter comes, there is on average 2.04 9hitters. At least in the test I ran.
All the different possibilities created by the chaos give an average.
:thumbsup: how much further until the average other numbers before a hit becomes 1 instead of 2!
Also . If i record 200 spins .can i come on next time and continue from there or must i start again..... to ensure a worthy final group of statistics?
T