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Roulette-focused => Outside The Box => Topic started by: redhot on Apr 09, 11:45 AM 2019

Title: Dependence creates bias
Post by: redhot on Apr 09, 11:45 AM 2019
“Each spin is independent” â€" This forms the basis for the argument that roulette can’t be beaten (along with unfair pay-outs).

On the other side of the argument, several members here have stated that it can be beaten by creating dependence as - “dependence creates bias”.

I wanted to start this thread to discuss how dependence can be created and if so, does it create bias?

I’ll start out with my thoughts on this, the only way to create dependence is if spin B is determined in some way by the outcome of spin A.

I think bet stitching can help here, for example if we stitch together an EC (High/Low) with the dozens, we now have 6 possible outcomes over 2 spins:

H1
H2
H3
L1
L2
L3

The outcome is dependent on both spins. If spin 1 is High, this affects the outcome of spin 2 as it can no longer be L1, L2, or L3. So out of the 6 equal possibilities, a bias has been created towards H1, H2 and H3.

Is this bias useful? Can it be used to gain an edge?
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Firefox on Apr 09, 12:09 PM 2019
Not useful as it stands as the sequence can complete with any dozen equally. If you could find an example where the next spin was influenced to alter the chance of certain partitions occurring, then maybe.

All of  this kind of theory never constrains the partition forming the next result. When a cycle is due to complete, it can always complete with any partition, or when an arithmetic progression is due, any partition can complete it. So in fact there is no dependence on a past spin which offers a betting advantage.

Unfortunately, you will find on this forum, some baiters,  hoaxers, and liars who will try to waste your time saying they have found a mathematical advantage, betting to beat the house edge based on the results of previous spins.

When challenged, they won't provide examples, because there is no example.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Person S on Apr 09, 12:37 PM 2019
Perhaps, more precisely, it will look like this:
H + 1 - 1
H + 2 - 2
H + 3 - 3
L + 1 - 4
L + 2 - 5
L + 3 - 6,
then we can create a parallel game using DS /
And, perhaps, when connected, this creates a certain bias. It remains to find out at which points to attack and bet - it’s unclear whether we need the L + 3 or H + 1 combination, we need to cover both a dozen and the EU - so we risk 2 chips to win 1, or lose or make a return . The remaining 4 combos give us a little more chance if they play together.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: ego on Apr 09, 01:05 PM 2019

I give it a try ...

Even money:

One single is one outcome
Series of two is one outcome
Series of three and higher is one outcome

As you can see we have 1/3 because a series of three and higher is regarded as the same.

Now if you look at the random bits using any results you want, from Casino or random.org - it does not matter - what you will find is the following:
During 300 trails samples you will see two elements or two outcomes strike from 23456789 ... 10 11 12 13 14 15 ... 20 21 22 23 24 25 ...
That is a true bias.

I can compare this with dozen 1 2 3 where two dozen can strike 23456789 ... 10 11 12 13 14 15 ... 20  21 22 23 24 25 times in a row.
Also the principal with three possibilities.

Problem is how to take advantage of such bias - dominance.
I have been trying different random walks and some are better than others.

To explain this further you will see two things happen.
Either you get a TRIPLET or a true BIAS

A triple is when all three elements/outcomes alternate and show once each.
For example one single and one series of two and one series of three or higher in any combination.

True bias is when two elements/outcomes show three times or more in a row.
There can only be a true bias or triplet.

The bias combines the following combinations.

Singles and series of two
Singles and series of three or higher
Series of two and series of three or higher

This is a sample of today's random bits from random org and the number to the right at the end indicate how many elements/outcomes the bias has when it strikes as a sequence 3456789 and so on ... a zero "0" indicate a triplet with no present bias.

This is known as Sputnik's March and I am the creator.
The largest strike/bias was 13 in a row with this 300 trail sample.

Here can you see the even money with a small bias, a medium bias, a large bias.



2
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
2 9
---
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 7
---
2
2
1
2
2
1
1 4
---
2
2
2
1
1
2
2 3
---
1
2
2
1
2 4
---
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
1 5
---
2
2
1
2
1 4
---
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2 3
---
1
2
2
2
1 3
---
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 6
---
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2 7
---
1
1
2
2
2
1
1 3
---
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2 11
---
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1 3
---
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
2 7
---
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
2 8
---
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
1 7
---
2
2
2
1
2
2 0
---
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2 6
---
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1 3
---
2
1
1
2
2
2 0
---
1
2
2
2
1 3
---
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2 7
---
1
2
2
2
1 3
---
2
2
1
2 3
---
1
1
1
2
2
1 0
---
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1 4
---
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
2 13
---
1
1
1
2
1
2 4





Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Blueprint on Apr 09, 01:25 PM 2019
This is not an opinion or belief like Firefox's view but a FACT.   Keep going, Redhot.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Firefox on Apr 09, 01:40 PM 2019
If my view is not a fact, then disprove my view by providing an example of how the next spin can be influenced by previous ones and how this can be exploited to produce a bet with positive expectation.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: ego on Apr 09, 01:56 PM 2019

Redhot my example is among the best-known description of true bias using even money bets.
No one else has such a clear, simple and clever solution.

Even if the outcomes are independent so is there no other way to explore bias using even money.
Someone can claim they have a better solution, but that would be empty words as no one has shown any better solution then Sputnik's March.

Cheers
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Herby on Apr 09, 02:11 PM 2019
Hi Ego, how do you decide that ...

2
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
2   
---   here is the end of this sequence ?
Tnx
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Hairyballs on Apr 09, 02:47 PM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Apr 09, 11:45 AM 2019The outcome is dependent on both spins. If spin 1 is High, this affects the outcome of spin 2 as it can no longer be L1, L2, or L3. So out of the 6 equal possibilities, a bias has been created towards H1, H2 and H3.
Where is the bias? There will be a bias only if you are able to say even before the first spin. 
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Hairyballs on Apr 09, 02:53 PM 2019
Quote from: Firefox on Apr 09, 12:09 PM 2019
So in fact there is no dependence on a past spin which offers a betting advantage.
FACT
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Herby on Apr 09, 04:16 PM 2019
Tnx, got it.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Blueprint on Apr 10, 05:01 AM 2019
Quote from: Firefox on Apr 09, 01:40 PM 2019
If my view is not a fact, then disprove my view by providing an example of how the next spin can be influenced by previous ones and how this can be exploited to produce a bet with positive expectation.

When you ask the right question (and do the work I asked you to in the other thread) then I’ll consider answering you.   



Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: redhot on Apr 10, 06:52 AM 2019
Quote from: Person S on Apr 09, 12:37 PM 2019
Perhaps, more precisely, it will look like this:
H + 1 - 1
H + 2 - 2
H + 3 - 3
L + 1 - 4
L + 2 - 5
L + 3 - 6,
then we can create a parallel game using DS /
And, perhaps, when connected, this creates a certain bias. It remains to find out at which points to attack and bet - it’s unclear whether we need the L + 3 or H + 1 combination, we need to cover both a dozen and the EU - so we risk 2 chips to win 1, or lose or make a return . The remaining 4 combos give us a little more chance if they play together.

This is close to where I was going next...

We have 6 possible outcomes:

H1 - 1
H2 - 2
H3 - 3
L1 - 4
L2 - 5
L3 - 6

We've essentially created our own "double streets".

Any stats which apply to double streets will also apply to our game, for example - "92% of repeats in a double street cycle will come from the last 3 double streets". This is something I proved in another thread and holds true over 1 million cycles. A repeat in a DS cycle therefore has a bias towards the last 3 DS.

So now we have another bias to work with, can we use them together?

19
6  (H1)
27 (L3)
20 (H2)

Here the last 3 "double streets" were H1, L3 and H2. Betting for the repeat using standard double streets we would need to bet all 3 however by combining the first bias we can eliminate some options.

The last spin was H so we have a bias towards H1, H2 and H3. Therefore our only options for a repeat are H1 and H2.

Does eliminating some options give us an advantage here?


Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Person S on Apr 10, 07:42 AM 2019
Statistics promises us to repeat in the first half.
But it is difficult to understand what to bet on.
Well, we excluded the L + 3 combination.
There are 2 options left: H + 1, H + 2.
If this is an external rate, then we must put EC + Doz, i.e. high and two dozen.
It turns out we cover the whole field.

Here's how victory will affect:
dozen 1 win - breakeven
a dozen 2 wins - 1 part (13-18) brings breakeven, 2 parts (19-24) win + 1 chip from H. Total + 1
dozen 3 win - lose - 1.
Hmmm not so cool
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Person S on Apr 10, 07:53 AM 2019
I apologize, a dozen 2 (19-24) brings + 2, from the bet 3.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: redhot on Apr 10, 08:30 AM 2019
Quote from: Person S on Apr 10, 07:42 AM 2019
Statistics promises us to repeat in the first half.
But it is difficult to understand what to bet on.
Well, we excluded the L + 3 combination.
There are 2 options left: H + 1, H + 2.
If this is an external rate, then we must put EC + Doz, i.e. high and two dozen.
It turns out we cover the whole field.

Here's how victory will affect:
dozen 1 win - breakeven
a dozen 2 wins - 1 part (13-18) brings breakeven, 2 parts (19-24) win + 1 chip from H. Total + 1
dozen 3 win - lose - 1.
Hmmm not so cool

I'm not sure I understand your bet, why are you betting on EC and Dozen?

In my example above, on the next spin I would bet dozen 1 and dozen 2 to try and capture a repeat of either H1 or H2.

We already have the EC value (H) from the previous spin, there's no need to bet the EC.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: MoneyT101 on Apr 10, 09:36 AM 2019
Honestly I’m not sure if this is the correct route for you just yet.

I’m not saying you won’t find anything.  Just it’s a little more complicated and might make things harder using created numbers.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Person S on Apr 10, 09:50 AM 2019
In my understanding
H1
L3
H2 is three unique.
Because if we play pure DS, we bet on all three.
And if we remove one combination, the repetition statistics can be broken.

That is why instead of L3 I used H
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: redhot on Apr 10, 06:05 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Apr 10, 09:36 AM 2019
Honestly I’m not sure if this is the correct route for you just yet.

I’m not saying you won’t find anything.  Just it’s a little more complicated and might make things harder using created numbers.

What would you suggest? Just stick with the standard positions?

Can the bet win just using standard positions? Bet stitching is not required?
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: MoneyT101 on Apr 10, 07:31 PM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Apr 10, 06:05 PM 2019
What would you suggest? Just stick with the standard positions?

Can the bet win just using standard positions? Bet stitching is not required?

There are many ways to win.. same ingredient can be applied to all custom games because in the end it behaves the same.

Ec + dozen as one bet behaves the same exact way as if your playing a line

Now if you can win with regular line.. you won’t be able to win with a more complicated bet that resembles a line bet
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: redhot on Apr 11, 04:14 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Apr 10, 07:31 PM 2019
There are many ways to win.. same ingredient can be applied to all custom games because in the end it behaves the same.

Ec + dozen as one bet behaves the same exact way as if your playing a line

Now if you can win with regular line.. you won’t be able to win with a more complicated bet that resembles a line bet

Understood, thanks for the heads up.

In which case we need to identify how dependence can be created in a different way, without bet stitching.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Richard Meisel on Sep 07, 02:04 PM 2020
Ares said: "There is a causative force that compels numerical events to seek their legitimate place within their assigned probabilities"

Well, my friend Ares, what do you think is that "causative force". Is it something natural or supernatural that leads to a STATISTICAL BALANCE? Is there really a Law Of Averages?

I know on an American Wheel the Ball has only 38 pockets to fall into. So the Ball is DEPENDENT on those 38 Pockets. If the number of Pockets were infinite the ball would be INDEPENDENT. So the next Spin after the last Spin is dependent on 38 Pockets.

Not too bad Odds if you consider that the next Spin after the last Spin the ball will fall into a Pocket about 15 Pockets on either side. Do statistics back this up?

I haven't seen any statistic backing up a Distribution Balance in Roulette. There's always some numbers getting skewed as in the Bell Curve after even millions of decisions. But, loving math, I have to believe in the Balance of Numbers in Roulette. But I've never seen a Perfect Balance.

Here is a System that should be tried. After a Spin, say #32, go to the Left 10 numbers (#14) and looking at #14 bet the next 9 numbers counterclockwise on Unhits and Uniques. Do the same on the right starting with #1 clockwise. This is an 18 number Bet. Flatbet. You can put a Unit on 0 and 00 also. Someone please test this out.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Ares289 on Sep 10, 01:26 AM 2020
Quote from: Richard Meisel on Sep 07, 02:04 PM 2020
Well, my friend Ares, what do you think is that "causative force". Is it something natural or supernatural that leads to a STATISTICAL BALANCE?

Completely NATURAL, it is not anything magical or theory, it just FACTS.

"No matter if you Iook at a singIe atom or the our soIar system, you wiII find that they are in baIance. A stabIe atom has the same number of protons and eIectrons. The positive protons canceI out the negative eIectrons. When the number of eIectrons does not equaI the number of protons, the atom is ionized and wiII try to get rid itseIf of the extra eIectrons… in other words, naturaIIy get to its baIanced state."

"EquiIibrium is neither good nor bad. It is simpIy a force in pIay aII of the time. StructuraI tension, which is the prime structure we use in the creative process, is a deIiberate set up of non-equiIibrium. The difference between the desired state (the outcome we want to create,) and the actuaI state (current reaIity in reIationship to our desired outcome,) forms a tension because of the non-equiIibrium factor."

"SimiIar is true with human actions, we try to find baIance in what we do. A simpIe exampIe is waIking. Its not Iike we need to think about baIance or are baIanced aII the time but from time to time we make adjustments to achieve our goal (optimaI state)"
.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: Moxy on Sep 10, 02:38 AM 2020
Quote from: Ares289 on Sep 10, 01:26 AM 2020
Completely NATURAL, it is not anything magical or theory, it just FACTS.

"No matter if you Iook at a singIe atom or the our soIar system, you wiII find that they are in baIance. A stabIe atom has the same number of protons and eIectrons. The positive protons canceI out the negative eIectrons. When the number of eIectrons does not equaI the number of protons, the atom is ionized and wiII try to get rid itseIf of the extra eIectrons… in other words, naturaIIy get to its baIanced state."

"EquiIibrium is neither good nor bad. It is simpIy a force in pIay aII of the time. StructuraI tension, which is the prime structure we use in the creative process, is a deIiberate set up of non-equiIibrium. The difference between the desired state (the outcome we want to create,) and the actuaI state (current reaIity in reIationship to our desired outcome,) forms a tension because of the non-equiIibrium factor."

"SimiIar is true with human actions, we try to find baIance in what we do. A simpIe exampIe is waIking. Its not Iike we need to think about baIance or are baIanced aII the time but from time to time we make adjustments to achieve our goal (optimaI state)"
.

Thanks again, Captain Obvious.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: pepper on Sep 10, 04:17 PM 2020
Quote from: Ares289 on Sep 10, 01:26 AM 2020Completely NATURAL, it is not anything magical or theory, it just FACTS.

"No matter if you Iook at a singIe atom or the our soIar system, you wiII find that they are in baIance. A stabIe atom has the same number of protons and eIectrons. The positive protons canceI out the negative eIectrons. When the number of eIectrons does not equaI the number of protons, the atom is ionized and wiII try to get rid itseIf of the extra eIectrons… in other words, naturaIIy get to its baIanced state."

"EquiIibrium is neither good nor bad. It is simpIy a force in pIay aII of the time. StructuraI tension, which is the prime structure we use in the creative process, is a deIiberate set up of non-equiIibrium. The difference between the desired state (the outcome we want to create,) and the actuaI state (current reaIity in reIationship to our desired outcome,) forms a tension because of the non-equiIibrium factor."

"SimiIar is true with human actions, we try to find baIance in what we do. A simpIe exampIe is waIking. Its not Iike we need to think about baIance or are baIanced aII the time but from time to time we make adjustments to achieve our goal (optimaI state)".
Homeostasis takes effect to put us back to a balance. Our happiness is canceled out by our sadness. We go through cycles of good and bad. It is a part of life.

What is important though is having tools to cope with the bad cycles, offset the negativities if you will.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: pepper on Sep 10, 04:19 PM 2020
Not those kind of tools Moxy (gizmotool). Get ur head outa da guttar.
Title: Re: Dependence creates bias
Post by: pepper on Sep 11, 06:51 PM 2020
Quote from: Moxy on Sep 10, 02:38 AM 2020Thanks again, Captain Obvious.
Did u have to say that? Was it necessary? If you have nothing nice to say, then don't say anything at all.