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Roulette-focused => General Discussion => Topic started by: Anastasius on May 19, 06:13 AM 2019

Title: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 19, 06:13 AM 2019
Can somebody explain my fallacy in simple words :

If " within 24 spins  .i knew 110% (definate) that out of 12 numbers  . 1 of them will hit. And i play each set of 24 spins  having chosen 1 of these numbers. And flat  betting

Then would i be ahead or still lose long term?
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Loc on May 19, 07:47 AM 2019
I don't understand if it's a question, math guess or anything else, but with those assumptions:

"within 24 spins .i knew 110% (definate) that out of 12 numbers . 1 of them will hit"

The question should be how you would know it? Assuming that you know, you gonna win 2 times, betting one number, out of 24 spins, then you gonna win, because you get back 72 units risking 22.
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 19, 08:01 AM 2019
Sorry its kind of math and hypothetical...

In 24 spins any numbers  can  hit.
Lets say u wait until  number has slept 100 spins then bet it 24 times thats a fallacy that its "due" i understand  that.

So in this hypothetical  situation in 24 spins u get a 'magic list of 12 numbers' 1 only must hit in 24 spins..

What is the most effective way to play the 12 over 24 spins  (cause if u play 12 numbers with martingale  or 1 hit re coups all it will be too expensive by spin 24 (even tho at spin  24 u will still win)

My other question is if u just picked 1 number from the 12 numbers  will u be ahead long term... as u only have 1 number of a potential  12 and only 1 must hit     .... (therefore could hit other 11 many times before u win)

In thr long term will u still  end up ahead
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 19, 08:06 AM 2019
Like this ...i give u 12 separate numbers and tell u that in every 24 spins 1 of them must hit.  If u could pick just 1 for the whole 24 spins  flat would u still be aheeven tho other 11 could hit also..
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Firefox on May 19, 08:09 AM 2019
You will lose long term because the wheel has no memory of the previous 24 spins or anything else. The odds of your number hitting on the next spin is still 1/37 and the pay off is only 35:1.
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Loc on May 19, 08:32 AM 2019
I was doing it by his assumptions, if you are Sure, that out of 24 spins you will win, then YOU have the edge, also i said it at the beginning, the right question is HOW you know you will win? That's the question, also i am not good with all this kind of guess stuff, it depends on the interpretation of the problem too.
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 19, 08:32 AM 2019
I cant grasp the 1 number question but in the example u could wait 12 spins and do 1 hit re coups all for 12 spins which would guarantee a win. Cus in the example  one of the 12 must hit.... im just thinking if it still goes  for 1 number ling term
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 19, 08:34 AM 2019
Im just thinking that in the 24 spins for example say for 23 of the spins  the other numbers hit (different to the 12) then final spin one of the 12 hit but its not the one u chose  and that would have huge downswings i dunno if it would be better than betting a number at random
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Loc on May 19, 08:37 AM 2019
Unless it's pure math since, idk any strategy that could help you in this way..
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: maestro on May 19, 08:42 AM 2019
in 24 spins 12 numbers will hit 5 to 10 times as a group itmight be good bet if you start beting hit numbers for 24 spins...once you got to 24 spins retrack
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: maestro on May 19, 08:52 AM 2019
something like this
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 19, 09:00 AM 2019
Maestro does that win long term
How are u betting
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 19, 09:22 AM 2019
In your bet sometimes u bet 1 then after a few spins bet 2 or more. Why are u increasing numbers bet on
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: maestro on May 19, 09:50 AM 2019
lol...looking for repeat within dozen...and no is not long therm winner...but is fun
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Firefox on May 19, 12:15 PM 2019
It's the same as betting a number at random.

24 spins, 37 spins, waiting,  triggers , sleepers, repeaters, all complete crap and useless for any advantage.

Exactly the same as betting randomly, whereupon you will lose to the house edge.
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 19, 01:29 PM 2019
Yes indeed fix fox.  But my question i wanted help with is hypothetical.  It could even be a rng with 37 numbers but 1/12 must hit within 24 spins.

So like i said in this unique situation if u wait 12 then bet 12 with martingale u wud ensure win.

My actual question is the maths on the same situation but 1 number is bet .. so for example 23 spins  could even hit the other number and miss the 12 but then hit your or another of the 12 on the last spin. But it must hit

Thanks  for every1 help.
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Firefox on May 19, 03:00 PM 2019
Same answer. Waiting or making hypothetical bets makes no difference to the odds. The maths is the same.

You can wait for 20 reds in a row and the probability of red (or black) is still 18/37 on the next spin. So waiting or hypothetical bets are totally useless to get an advantage with a martingale ;)
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Anastasius on May 20, 03:02 AM 2019
Of course ur right but not in a hypothetical  question. Was only asking probability math
Title: Re: Explain the fallacy
Post by: Firefox on May 20, 04:53 AM 2019
I'm answering from the point of view of probability in a hypothetical situation.