This is sort of a slow Martingale (increase when you lose) with a bit of D'Alembert (decrease when you win) strategy.
The bet selection is up to you. Originally, Harryj said you should play the losing Even Chance after it lost 3-4 times. And you bet for the next 3 spins. If a color runs for 5, 6 or 7 spins you win, if it runs for more than 7 spins you lose. The reasoning is that there are far more same color spin sequences with a length of 5, 6 or 7 spins, than there are with a length of 8 spins or more.
But you can chose a different trigger if you like.
What makes this really interesting, aside from the very balanced wagering plan, is the fact that you take a break after 3 losses. You see the trigger, you bet and if there is no win after 3 bets, you stop and wait for the next trigger. Though theoretically there is no difference, this approach protects you from long losing sequences.
Is this the best roulette strategy ever? Probably not. Is it a good starting point, a good newbie strategy? Definitely! IMO it is better than the majority of the strategies found on most sites and forums and relatively simple.
Both Kav and Reyth (from video) have a wealth of experience in the game.
Not sure about Kav himself, but Reyth is truly obsessed. :thumbsup:
thelaw,
Thanks
Let Me Win,
Choose a better nick.
Huh?
How about you stop spamming this forum?
What are you good for really? Publishing a rediculious bet with no instructions for a decade...
Or running a forum in the style of the Nazi Party where free speech is not allowed and is good only for reading the daily drivel of MickeyP
Reyth left ages ago....
Experienced roulette players know that there is no such thing as a trigger.
"You see the trigger, you bet and if there is no win after 3 bets, you stop and wait for the next trigger. Though theoretically there is no difference, this approach protects you from long losing sequences."
This is an example of an oxymoron amathes.
Excuse me but I can't discuss seriously with someone called Let Me Win. No offence, I just can't.
Don't worry there is nothing serious here to discuss.
The only reason for your post is to drive traffic to your website and You Tube channel.
Since this topic didn't get many replies, I took a look at some recent topics that attracted attention:
- Soul patterns and Graph theory
- Is roulette spins truly random ?
- Over There but Here, Reading Randomness
- Facts about Non-Random in 2019 and the cost of winning
- Increasing/decreasing probability in Roulette
- Applying Fractals to Roulette
- Does random have limits?
- Martingale Psychology
- Precognition - PROOF!
Now this is scary! I mean are we so disappointed by real specific betting systems that we turned to the philosophy of probability or something?
Maybe it is the noise of useless
10-minutes-of-thought systems that pop up every week that doesn't allow us to focus on the good ones?
I have written my share of theoretical texts about roulette, but this is getting out of hand. Experienced players still wondering what is independence, the nature of probability and if quantum theory is the answer to our problems...
Ok I'm rambling, or maybe I do have a point. Fact is I was a bit disappointed that my original post about a quite Simple and Useful strategy didn't get any attention. This is actually a quite simple progression for EC, by the late Harryj, and you could do much worse than use it.
Simple description In his words:
Quote1.2.3. Martingale end of series after any win.
3/9 3 is the bet 9 the total risk. ALL THE FOLLOWING BETS ARE FLAT UNTIL
3/12 A NEW LEVEL IS REACHED OR THE LINE IS CLEAR.
4/16
4/20
5/25
5/30
6/36
6/42
7/49
7/56
8/64
8/72
9/81
9/90
10/10
10/110 IN MY OWN PLAY i NEVER REACHED THIS LEVEL BUT ABORTED THE PLAY AT A CONVENIENT POINT LONG BEFORE. ACCEPTING A SMALL LOSS PROVED MORE PROFITABLE THAN CLEARING A LINE THAT LINGERED ON.
PS: I do miss people like GLC, he would have liked it.
Quote from: Kav on Sep 16, 04:38 AM 2019PS: I do miss people like GLC, he would have liked it.
And what about Mr J
Quote from: nottophammer on Sep 16, 06:01 AM 2019
And what about Mr J
In later years MrJ stopped posting systems, just like Turbo...
I wonder where MrJ is. Anyone know?
Or where is GLC...
Quote from: Kav on Sep 16, 04:38 AM 2019
Since this topic didn't get many replies, I took a look at some recent topics that attracted attention:
- Soul patterns and Graph theory
- Is roulette spins truly random ?
- Over There but Here, Reading Randomness
- Facts about Non-Random in 2019 and the cost of winning
- Increasing/decreasing probability in Roulette
- Applying Fractals to Roulette
- Does random have limits?
- Martingale Psychology
- Precognition - PROOF!
Now this is scary! I mean are we so disappointed by real specific betting systems that we turned to the philosophy of probability or something?
Maybe it is the noise of useless 10-minutes-of-thought systems that pop up every week that doesn't allow us to focus on the good ones?
I have written my share of theoretical texts about roulette, but this is getting out of hand. Experienced players still wondering what is independence, the nature of probability and if quantum theory is the answer to our problems...
Ok I'm rambling, or maybe I do have a point. Fact is I was a bit disappointed that my original post about a quite Simple and Useful strategy didn't get any attention. This is actually a quite simple progression for EC, by the late Harryj, and you could do much worse than use it.
Simple description In his words:
PS: I do miss people like GLC, he would have liked it.
Systems and MM is regurgitating same old bullshit. Record stuck in the track.
Not everyone consume that kind of thing.
AP and mathboyz shit on it every single time. And they are right.
No offence, nothing personal, it's what it is.
Quote from: Kav on Sep 16, 04:38 AM 2019I mean are we so disappointed by real specific betting systems that we turned to the philosophy of probability or something?
Systems like the one you mentioned are the reason why people are looking for something else. Simple systems like that are a dime a dozen. I'm surprised at you Kav, I thought you were more discriminating. :o If you're going to produce videos on roulette systems, at least come up with decent systems, not garbage like this. Less style, more substance! Sorry if that seems harsh.
Quote from: Kav on Sep 11, 08:10 PM 2019What makes this really interesting, aside from the very balanced wagering plan, is the fact that you take a break after 3 losses. You see the trigger, you bet and if there is no win after 3 bets, you stop and wait for the next trigger. Though theoretically there is no difference, this approach protects you from long losing sequences.
No, it doesn't. Theory and practice are the same, it's just that most people don't understand the theory properly. ::)
Quote from: luckyfella on Sep 16, 07:04 AM 2019
Systems and MM is regurgitating same old bullshit. Record stuck in the track.
Not everyone consume that kind of thing.
AP and mathboyz shit on it every single time. And they are right.
No offence, nothing personal, it's what it is.
I'm sorry but I just disagree. Reading Randomness is different and those that master it are "shitting" as you put it, all over the mathBoyz. I'm doing this just to take that shit. It feels so good. Ahhh!
I would love to see you try it, for you to honestly try to learn it. You can't though. You would rather go down with the ship. That's OK. Somebody has to. I guess you will stir up a lot of noise and scream and shout as you won't go quietly. Oh well, such is life.
Quote from: Joe on Sep 16, 07:50 AM 2019
Simple systems like that are a dime a dozen.
Simplicity is a virtue not a vice. And a big one too. So this system qualifies in this respect.
Now it is your job to try to hear within the noise, search among the garbage to find the gem and chose which systems are worth your time and effort.
I'm willing to compare this system to anything you think is better. So tell me from all these thousands of topics and posts you have read and wrote which other
simple system you think is superior. You asked for substance. Let's be specific then.
Kav, there isn't even a bet selection, the system is just a progression on the even chances, and not a particularly good one. There are many better, for example the mongoose progression.
Simplicity is not a virtue because how can a simple system hope to compete with random outcomes, which are very complex?
Quote from: Joe on Sep 16, 01:00 PM 2019
Simplicity is not a virtue because how can a simple system hope to compete with random outcomes, which are very complex?
If only people understand what they are up against.
It seems most people don't.
Quote from: Joe on Sep 16, 01:00 PM 2019
Kav, there isn't even a bet selection
Oh! You criticize something you haven't spent a few minutes to understand what it is. Great! In the first 3 minutes of the video it describes not one but two bet selections. The original one by Harryj (cold EC) and the presenter's one (hot EC). So there is a bet selection method.
The mongoose progression, huh? Can you please explain why is it better to play the mongoose than just betting on a doublestreet? Same chances, same payout. Complicated without a reason.
Whatever...
So this is the best progression you know? The... amazing mongoose progression has been coded by ignatus and here are the results:
Quote from: ignatus on Jan 29, 06:56 PM 2019
(link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=24948.0;attach=39523;image)
(link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=24948.0;attach=39525;image)
Quote from: Kav on Sep 16, 03:47 PM 2019So this is the best progression you know? The... amazing mongoose progression has been coded by ignatus and here are the results:
Kav, for comparison, you should also code your system and show its results - and no cherry picking!
And I didn't say it's the best progression I know. In truth, progressions are given more attention than they deserve; the priority should be bet selection. No progression can make up for a crap bet selection.
You said :
QuoteThe bet selection is up to you
This means that the system itself consists of a progression, and the bet selection mentioned in the video is no better than betting continuously on red. Waiting for virtual losses doesn't make any difference.
Quote from: Joe on Sep 17, 02:39 AM 2019
Kav, for comparison, you should also code your system and show its results - and no cherry picking!
The graph will look equally bad ? :question:
Where is steve ? :twisted:
Every progression will produce the same negative trend if played mindlessly without a good bet selection. Objectively and ultimately they are all the same, but some can be more interesting than others. I guess it's a matter of opinion what is "interesting" though. IMO the mongoose is more interesting than Kav's progression, as is the one posted by LMW in this thread:
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=26289.15
IGNATUS did not produce code for playing the Mongoose on RX.
His code is completely wrong and does not play the Mongoose correctly.
If I dumped a load of chips all over the table randomly then wherever they landed I could then call this the Let Me Win bet and publish it all over the Internet making out I'm an expert on Roulette then I could keep people waiting a decade before publishing the staking plan in an ebook and selling it for â,¬350
Reminds me of the nonsense that is the Kav bet.
Quote from: Let Me Win on Sep 17, 04:18 AM 2019His code is completely wrong and does not play the Mongoose correctly.
Well I did wonder about that because Mongoose is a complex progression.
QuoteIf I dumped a load of chips all over the table randomly then wherever they landed I could then call this the Let Me Win bet and publish it all over the Internet making out I'm an expert on Roulette then I could keep people waiting a decade before publishing the staking plan in an ebook and selling it for â,¬350
LOL, yes Kav is a good at marketing. Some of his vids are fun to watch but they are very misleading.
Joe,
Mongoose is super simple to program. Just a few IF THEN.
IMO the only good thing about the Mongoose is that it is simple. Otherwise it is a complex way to achieve the same payout as the Double-street by playing the Simple Chances. I can not see even remotely any difference between Mongoose and a Double-street bet.
So far none has posted an Simple Chances system or progression that he thinks is better than Kitchen Martingale.
It seems to me that most people here think "systems are useless" which IMO is sad. Of course it is your right to think that it is sad to think that a system is better than throwing your chips randomly upon the roulette table.
Let Me Win (Blue Angel (link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?action=profile;u=4896)),
Please keep harassing me, just spell my name correctly. The more awareness you create about me, the more people will realize that I know what I'm talking about.
Yes, it looks like you realise what you're talking about.
Over a decade of roulette experience and your best proposal is that we all play a martingale.
The only reason you're even here is because your own forum is completely dead with just dumb and dumber (MickeyP and Mr Perfect) remaining.
Quote from: Kav on Sep 22, 06:56 AM 2019Mongoose is super simple to program. Just a few IF THEN.
IMO the only good thing about the Mongoose is that it is simple. Otherwise it is a complex way to achieve the same payout as the Double-street by playing the Simple Chances. I can not see even remotely any difference between Mongoose and a Double-street bet.
Super simple to program? ok then, let's see your code. And the progression is for ECs so I don't know why you are saying it's no different to a double-street bet.
Quote from: Joe on Sep 23, 09:52 AM 2019
Super simple to program? ok then, let's see your code. And the progression is for ECs so I don't know why you are saying it's no different to a double-street bet.
Yes mate it is super simple to program. You don't have to see my code, you just have to understand this simple Flowchart:
(link:s://:.x/images/mongoose-chart.png)
I can send you an excel programmed with Mongoose too if you need. Sir, you are supposed to be a programmer... 8)
Then, you don't understand the relation between the Mongoose and a DoubleStreet bet. Ok, let me explain: The mongoose has the same probability of winning as a DoubleStreet bet 6/37 and the same payout as a Double Street bet 5:1. As successful Mongoose wins 5 units and a lost Mongoose progression loses 1 unit. Any graph representing the Mongoose progression (as a whole) Bankroll fluctuation, W-L chart etc. is indiscernible from a Double bet chart. All relevant statistics are the same.
I though you recommended that system, you should have known how it works. Anyway, I'm here to help with any other questions you may have and improve your understanding of the system you recommended as your favourite system.
Double street 2.7‰
Mongoose EC 1.35‰
Is the most obvious difference.
Stop the nonsense. Your numbers don't apply to European or American roulette. Learn the basics. The house edge is the house edge. Stop playing imaginary games you want to call roulette.
Excuse me?
I thought that all roulette experts knew about the La Partage rule.
As it only applies to EC bets and lowers the house advantage to 1.35‰ from 2.7‰ it makes no sense to play double streets.
It's like saying betting 3 double streets is the same as betting red or black.
99,9% of roulette games don't have this rule. Stop screwing the facts. La Partage doesn't apply to American or European roulette, only French, which is a minority even in France.
Well, I have written the most detailed article on the web about this issue. Search "american vs european vs french" and my article is featured in Google Snippets above everything else. Stop making a fool of yourself. You'd know this if you actually played roulette in a real casino. You take an exception and make it a rule.
So in your opinion 3 Double streets are not the same as Red or Black. Ok, good luck...
The only time someone should bet a double street is if they are betting double dozens.
Then they can bet 3 chips on either High or Low and 1 chip on a six line to create the same bet but with La Partage insurance in case the green goblin appeared.
I live in the UK every land based casino has this rule.
How many land based casinos in the UK?
Also many online wheels offer this rule too.
Google can find them for you.
Good luck fighting against 2.7‰ I will fight against 1.35‰ thanks.
Quote from: Kav on Sep 24, 04:03 AM 2019I can send you an excel programmed with Mongoose too if you need. Sir, you are supposed to be a programmer... 8)
Kav, I didn't say I couldn't code it, I said it's not "super simple" to code (which it isn't, compared to the system in your video).
Quote
Then, you don't understand the relation between the Mongoose and a DoubleStreet bet. Ok, let me explain: The mongoose has the same probability of winning as a DoubleStreet bet 6/37 and the same payout as a Double Street bet 5:1. As successful Mongoose wins 5 units and a lost Mongoose progression loses 1 unit. Any graph representing the Mongoose progression (as a whole) Bankroll fluctuation, W-L chart etc. is indiscernible from a Double bet chart. All relevant statistics are the same.
No, it's not the same as a DS and the stats and characteristics will not be the same. This is because a DS bet will return 5 units on a
single win, but the mongoose is an EC bet and so requires multiple wins to achieve the same result. You might as well create an EC bet based on the mongoose principles which returns 35 units on a successful coup, and then say it's no different than betting a single number.
Quote
I though you recommended that system, you should have known how it works. Anyway, I'm here to help with any other questions you may have and improve your understanding of the system you recommended as your favourite system.
Once again you're misrepresenting me because I have never said that the mongoose is my favourite system, and I never even recommended it; I just said it's better (or, more interesting) than the progression used in your video.
And I don't much like the flowchart you posted. It's not very clear; why didn't you use the standard flowchart symbols (diamonds for IF-THEN)? Furthermore, it only shows how to play one coup and doesn't include the full progression.
BTW, Kav, I think you got the algorithm from Atlantis' post here :
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=4339.0
Credit where credit's due. ;) Thanks Atlantis.
Kav, I've noticed you have a habit of appropriating other's work and passing it off as your own.
QuoteNo, it's not the same as a DS and the stats and characteristics will not be the same. This is because a DS bet will return 5 units on a single win, but the mongoose is an EC bet and so requires multiple wins to achieve the same result.
That's why this is called the "Mongoose" and not "Bet on Red"
The Mongoose is a very specific progression that produces very specific results. It is NOT an EC bet, it is a Progression of EC bets and should be taken as a whole.
Gambling statistics 101
Quote from: Joe on Sep 24, 06:21 AM 2019
BTW, Kav, I think you got the algorithm from Atlantis' post here :
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=4339.0
Credit where credit's due. ;) Thanks Atlantis.
My dear Joe, there are many many posts about the Mongoose. If you were more well educated about roulette you would have known.... or just do a Google search Atlantis was not the inventor of Mongoose nor the first one who posted about it in the forums. I don't even know who was the first who mentioned it.
Kav, a search of "Mongoose Progression" on Google returns Atlantis' post here at the top of the list. The 3rd link down is a post by TheCaviarKid on betselection.cc. He attaches an excel sheet in his post - that's the one you offered to send me, I assume? ;)
link:s://betselection.cc/money-management/the-30-step-mongoose-mongrel-mm-strategy/
Thanks to TheCaviarKid (not Kav). :)
Btw, we are launching a video on Masaniello, and point to a .zip with related files to download. Do you want to include your program to the zip with the related files?
Very old and disappointing method.
You lose all your BKR if in 20 spins there are exactly 10 Reds and 10 Blacks.
Probability:17,62%
Too high.....
Quote from: Kav on Sep 26, 11:17 PM 2019Btw, we are launching a video on Masaniello, and point to a .zip with related files to download. Do you want to include your program to the zip with the related files?
Yes, that's ok.
Not a bad video but it would have been nice if you had told viewers what the chance is of losing 100 units, rather than just saying "it happens quite often". I tell you what the probability is on my site and LMW has posted it above. The chance of making ~20 units is 82.4% and so the probability of losing 100 units is 100 - 82.4 = 17.6%.
heres the automatic software from off here i think..just input numbers
for hi lo ,red black ,odd even..with active running bank
Obviously you can only get perfect balance with an even number of bets. Here's a probability table which shows the chance of winning (ie, an imbalance) for from 2 to 150 bets :
2 : 50.00%
4 : 62.50%
6 : 68.75%
8 : 72.66%
10 : 75.39%
12 : 77.44%
14 : 79.05%
16 : 80.36%
18 : 81.45%
20 : 82.38% -> Masaniello
22 : 83.18%
24 : 83.88%
26 : 84.50%
28 : 85.06%
30 : 85.55%
32 : 86.01%
34 : 86.42%
36 : 86.79%
38 : 87.14%
40 : 87.46%
42 : 87.76%
44 : 88.04%
46 : 88.30%
48 : 88.54%
50 : 88.77%
52 : 88.99%
54 : 89.19%
56 : 89.39%
58 : 89.57%
60 : 89.74%
62 : 89.91%
64 : 90.07%
66 : 90.22%
68 : 90.36%
70 : 90.50%
72 : 90.63%
74 : 90.76%
76 : 90.88%
78 : 90.99%
80 : 91.11%
82 : 91.22%
84 : 91.32%
86 : 91.42%
88 : 91.52%
90 : 91.61%
92 : 91.70%
94 : 91.79%
96 : 91.88%
98 : 91.96%
100 : 92.04%
102 : 92.12%
104 : 92.19%
106 : 92.27%
108 : 92.34%
110 : 92.41%
112 : 92.48%
114 : 92.54%
116 : 92.61%
118 : 92.67%
120 : 92.73%
122 : 92.79%
124 : 92.85%
126 : 92.91%
128 : 92.96%
130 : 93.02%
132 : 93.07%
134 : 93.12%
136 : 93.17%
138 : 93.22%
140 : 93.27%
142 : 93.32%
144 : 93.36%
146 : 93.41%
148 : 93.45%
150 : 93.50%
So even with 150 bets there is still a 100 - 93.5 = 6.5% chance that you will lose (ie, 75 reds and 75 blacks). And then there's the zero which I've ignored; it's always the fly in the ointment.
Is this better?
15 20 24 24 16
10 16 24 32 32
4 8 16 32 64
Start from the first figure up on the left(15).
In case of W you go below,in case of L you go right.
Starting from 15,if W,next bet 10 or 20 if L and so on:the figure below if W,the figure at the right if L.
3 wins in a row(it happens):15 + 10 + 4= +29
3 wins at least in 7 spins : + 29 units.
If you lose 5 spins in a row or 5 L and 2 W ,in 7 spins at the most: -99 units
Joe,
There is a question for you in the video comments:
Can i Know which software is used to create the masaniello.exe? visul basic , excel or what?
I would appreciate it if you went and answer it
Kav, if you want to link to my software please include a link to my website where viewers can download it, and remove the current link (or at least, give me explicit credit). At the moment it seems like you're taking the credit for creating MY software (in the comment section you say "there is a bonus near the end of the video"). This is exactly what I meant by my earlier comment that you have a habit of passing other's work off as your own.
I'm also not happy about you saying that "This astonishing Italian roulette system win always!". I know you go on to say "Except for the rare event that there are exactly 10 Blacks and 10 Reds in 20 spins.", but that's misleading because that event is not rare.
I'm sorry you feel this way. I could have added a txt file with your link in the zip,.
...but since you keep accusing me unfairly and harshly about "passing other's work off as my own" with paranoid arguments about a widely known system that YOU pointed out and I never claimed was mine and a zip file with an app that has your site in the title and I asked for permission to use...
...then I prefer to remove your app completely from the zip.
I feel some prepossession here, but it is up to you to reconsider.
PS: the line you mention has exclusively SEO value, that's why I cancel it with following sentence.
PS 2: On a general side-note, maybe you have to understand the value of curation. For example what Google does is curate content. But let's not sidetrack the thread to this philosophical discussion.
Basic question.
Do you think Masaniello gives you a real edge?
Drawdown can be really big, but would it work in longrun?
Quote from: Kav on Sep 29, 05:27 AM 2019I'm sorry you feel this way. I could have added a txt file with your link in the zip,.
Well that's what I thought you were going to do. I'm quite happy for you to link to the software, it is free, after all. The issue I have is that no credit was given to me, the creator of it. And yes, my site url is included in the title, but most people would also assume that my site is affiliated or connected, or owned by x, which is something I don't want. All you had to do was include a text file which stated something like "You can download free software from roulettecoder.com for this system. The site is independent and not affiliated with x". Maybe I should have been more explicit about that when I gave you permission to use the software, but to be honest, I just assumed you would give credit; it's just common courtesy.
Quote from: ozon on Sep 29, 05:46 AM 2019
Basic question.
Do you think Masaniello gives you a real edge?
Drawdown can be really big, but would it work in longrun?
NO. Masaniello per ce (by itself) doesn't give you a real edge.
The most basic benefit of Masaniello and other good systems is in the realm of
control and accountability. That you know what you are doing, what to expect and that your play has discipline and structure. Win or lose will greatly depend on your luck or personal permanence as I like to call it (and no it's not a word invented by me).
Masaniello though could be part of a successful strategy coupled by a thoughtful bet selection (I like to use Follow the Last outcome) and a secondary progression, meaning "
what we do if we lose a Masaniello progression?" Do we keep the initial bet at same level or do we increase, or do we decrease etc.
Quote from: ozon on Sep 29, 05:46 AM 2019Do you think Masaniello gives you a real edge?
No of course not.
The chance to lose 100 units is 17.62% and the chance to win ~20 units is 82.38%, so the expectation is :
0.8238 * 20 - 0.1762 * 100 = -1.14
In order to make a profit the chance of win would need to be at least 83.5% (giving a losing rate of 16.6%), which would give 0.834 * 20 - 0.166 * 100 = +0.08
It is, however, an interesting and fun system to play.
As we are already talking about good MM.
What is your opinion about Labby?
We know this is one of the strongest progression.
Theoretically, it can withstand only 35% of hits of EC.
Labby is good. Period.
I like to believe that I have written the most complete guide to Labouchere on the web.
But Labby alone is not enough to give you an advantage.
Now imagine what would happen if you combined Masaniello as you main bet (consider the whole progression as one bet) and then combine it with labby on a higher level. Each win or Loss for the labby is a won or lost Masaniello progression... This is just a starting point.
I understand.
Use, for example, Labby only if you lose the session, this should give a very stable selection
An interesting idea would also be to use up and pull regression.
e.g. if we earn 100 units, it will be our 1 unit.
The regression would look like 2-1-2-3-5
Wow the expert has published the most comprehensive guide to both the La Partage rule and now the Labby on the Internet.
Hope it's better than your advice that La Partage roulette is rarely found ignoring that every single casino in the UK has this rule.
Going back to the suggestion of using multiple negative betting schemes...
You should not play like that, you are only losing more without gaining anything. If you flat bet 5 units bankroll to get 5 more (so your target is 10 units) with 1 unit bet size, then your probability of winning is only 43.2825%. It is much worse than 48.6486% if you bet five units on the even chance.
I have a slightly different question.
If we already have an edge, I am not writing about roulette, but about forex.
If I already have a good strategy that has an edge, which MM is best to optimize.
I wanted to play a little.
I have a swing strategy, but I thought I would put it in EC bets.
11 pips TP and 10 SL.
Here the question is even to AP players, how do you optimize wins with edge.
At the beginning I just think about 3 steps positive progression.
1-2-4, if we know that there will be more winnings, it should help us.
But I'm curious about your opinions
I have no idea what "11 pips TP and 10 SL" means.
Betting with an edge? Search Kelly criterion
Quote from: Kav on Oct 02, 06:19 PM 2019
I have no idea what "11 pips TP and 10 SL" means.
Betting with an edge? Search Kelly criterion
By that bolded sentence ozon, are you aware your question is directed at someone who is ignorant in fx ?
The answer you seek is,
Determine your winrate.
Use this winrate to determine the max win/loss streak. Use your brains to figure out how to design your MM upon this determined facts of your scalping method. Your main criteria should be to avoid risk of ruin. That includes volitility which brings into account your 10pips sl.
Quote from: ozon on Oct 02, 05:38 PM 2019
I have a slightly different question.
If we already have an edge, I am not writing about roulette, but about forex.
If I already have a good strategy that has an edge, which MM is best to optimize.
I wanted to play a little.
I have a swing strategy, but I thought I would put it in EC bets.
11 pips TP and 10 SL.
Here the question is even to AP players, how do you optimize wins with edge.
At the beginning I just think about 3 steps positive progression.
1-2-4, if we know that there will be more winnings, it should help us.
But I'm curious about your opinions
You have to account for the cost of commission, spread and slippage.
The net profit of a winning trade is lesser than this 11p measure.
And the cost of your losing trade is more than this 10p.
About your 11pips tp, you must account for the spread which can widen during volatile periods. So it might not be triggered.
Even if the chart shows that price touch your tp, there is no guarantee that your order will be filled in live market.
Factors to consider.
Luckyfella
I know all this, I'm using a broker with 0.6 pips commision.
And GBPJPY pair, which is very volatile, trades in london and NY sesion, spread is low.
I try to use swings in the most interesting way.
Quote from: ozon on Oct 04, 08:19 AM 2019
Luckyfella
I know all this, I'm using a broker with 0.6 pips commision.
And GBPJPY pair, which is very volatile, trades in london and NY sesion, spread is low.
I try to use swings in the most interesting way.
Read Hanover's post.
link:s://:.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=188593#post188593
Read this link.
link:s://:.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/betting-terminology/science-calculating-winning-losing-streaks/
Thanks for interesting topics
Many traders have limited knowledge about MM, I reached trading from gambling.
I believe that thanks to e.g. Labby, and 2000 units
And of course a good strategy can beat the market.
Hi guys. Nice stuff from GLC.Possibly such a video Lanky 6 point divisor?With a software which works.Thanks
Quote from: Kav on Nov 01, 07:39 PM 2019Any other suggestions of system you would like to see presented?
How about the star system? Designed for Blackjack but could be used on any even chance game.
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=8723.0
It's similar to the mongoose in that it relies on two wins in a row for success.
el hungaro,
I don't who you are (you are obviously NOT a new member) but I totally agree with you. GLC and Lanky, together with Bayes and a couple others were the best posters of this forum (or any forum).
The divisor is in my top 5 systems posted anywhere ever, and this says a lot. This one I'd like to do myself and not another member of Rouletteman. And since I'm not yet very experienced with video presentation of systems this may take some time before it's done.
Joe,
Is this the well known "Carsch Star" system? Because if it is, I have discussed about it, since it is quite famous, and nobody from the team wants to do it, because they don't like it. Personally I have no experience with it. But I did a quick search and I found that both Bayes and GLC liked the Stars system, so I will certainly take a closer look. Thanks
I really have been with you for a long time many years .Unfortunately I do not speak English.it has become so clear over the years that a system must consist of two parts.a defense and an attack.I think it's worth going back to old systems and trying to improve it.I'm working on Mr. opps" doozy dozen" system.I developed it a bit.I need the first hit to attack.I've tried many things, but I haven't managed to solve it yet.maybe a lanky divider will help.I would like to thank both forums.I learned a lot.Dr Talos gave me the strength to continue my journey.GLC, Flatnio(RIP),.Bayes,Reyth,Jerome,Bluangel,Third,and the others.great comments.thank you very much.I never give up.