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Roulette-focused => The Notepad => Topic started by: MoneyT101 on Oct 06, 06:37 PM 2019

Title: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 06, 06:37 PM 2019
This topic is a fresh start to continue some of the discussion we had in the other thread.  So here we will discuss exactly what the title says. 

No one is right and no one is wrong. If anything is spoken about we can label it a myth or fact or idea or theory.  But it will be open for anyone to believe what they want!  They can take the information and learn from it; improve or just be entertained.

New thread and new discussion.  So don’t bring up claims or insinuate anything unless things are said directly in this thread.  If you don’t agree with something then explain why you don’t agree or don’t post!  But don’t just attack people speaking their mind.  Show them why it’s wrong from your point of view and then let them believe what they want.   It’s that simple......
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 06, 07:00 PM 2019
The law of large numbers theorem basically says that if you run more trials(in our case more spins) then the results will reflect the events expected value(in our case the odds)

So the more spins we will get close to the 1/37 odds expected for each number.

I’m really bad I finding the correct words and you can notice in all my post.  So if anyone has a better way to explain law of large numbers or if I explained it wrong.  Please post 😅

Law of large numbers is a proven fact!!!  With 20 spins you can’t see the 1/37 odds because it’s not enough spins.  But with 100,000 it will start to show closer to the 1/37 odds.

MY idea/theory/myth/fact says that ONE of the reasons we lose is because we allow for this law to catch us.

Is this a Theory?..Fact?..Idea?..Myth?

What do you guys think?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: donik7777 on Oct 06, 07:12 PM 2019
I found in wikipedia and my opinion that fact....
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

The LLN is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the law only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations is considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 06, 07:32 PM 2019
Take for example in a 200 continuous spins session the player makes 20bets.

Another player plays 1bet in short 20spins session.

Whether the player players continuous long sessions or multiple short sessions it makes no difference.

The count is the number of bets the player makes. Not the number of spins during the players session.

Over a large number of trials or in these case bets, whether it's played in continuous long sessions or multiple short sessions is irrelevant, LLN says the result will converge towards the expected value.

The mistake many people make is to wrongly assume the count of LLN is the number of spins during their playing session.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 06, 07:46 PM 2019
Quote from: donik7777 on Oct 06, 07:12 PM 2019
For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the law only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations is considered.

Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 06, 07:32 PM 2019
Take for example in a 200 continuous spins session the player makes 20bets.

Another player plays 1bet in short 20spins session.

Whether the player players continuous long sessions or multiple short sessions it makes no difference.

The count is the number of bets the player makes. Not the number of spins during the players session.

Over a large number of trials or in these case bets, whether it's played in continuous long sessions or multiple short sessions is irrelevant, LLN says the result will converge towards the expected value.

The mistake many people make is to wrongly assume the count of LLN is the number of spins during their playing session.

I agree.  It is a mistake many players make.

When they say hit and run.  If you hit and run the law will catch up to you slower.

Like some players say they play for 20 spins and then take a break.  It doesn’t matter.  The law catches up to you the more you play. 

Does anyone else have a different point of view on this specific topic?(law of large number)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 06, 11:20 PM 2019
If you want to focus on LLN then stay on it. Don't go to Hit and Run because this is a totally different topic.
The logic behind hit and run has various parameters from bankroll management to reset a run of bad luck (same as changing tables).
We can discuss all day about hit and run if you like.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 07, 12:01 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 06, 11:20 PM 2019
If you want to focus on LLN then stay on it. Don't go to Hit and Run because this is a totally different topic.
The logic behind hit and run has various parameters from bankroll management to reset a run of bad luck (same as changing tables).
We can discuss all day about hit and run if you like.
Kav, can you explain how hit and run is not part of LLN ?

What is the role of bankroll management in short term hit and run type play ?

What is your strategy to reset the run of bad luck ?

I will read your explanation from the lens of math only. So I may ask specific questions to clarify my understanding to be correct. Pls be clear with your explanation.

I will not comment about your explanation. I leave that to the rest.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 02:06 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 06, 11:20 PM 2019
If you want to focus on LLN then stay on it. Don't go to Hit and Run because this is a totally different topic.
The logic behind hit and run has various parameters from bankroll management to reset a run of bad luck (same as changing tables).
We can discuss all day about hit and run if you like.

Out of all people I didn’t think you would disagree. 

Very interesting.... do you have any way to prove the difference with LLN and hit and run?

If you take all the hit and run bets placed, will they not fall under the LLN theorem? Technically they are repetitive bets which will be constant bets.  Whether you bet every 3 spins for a pattern or every other pattern.  The bet itself even with rules of when to bet fall prey to this law.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 06, 07:00 PM 2019
MY idea/theory/myth/fact says that ONE of the reasons we lose is because we allow for this law to catch us.

My opinion - ****If your hit and run method can break free from the law of large numbers than that also will mean you have a winning method!!****

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 07, 02:38 AM 2019
If you read again my post you'll understand that my point is not about agreeing or disagreeing with you about hit and run.
I'm just pointing out that this is a whole different topic - in case you have something specific to say about LLN.

If you want to discuss Hit and Run that's ok too. I'm not prepared at this time to explain my own take on the issue and the possible benefits of such a style of play.

I was just saying this is a topic ("hit and run type of play") where you can read different opinions and if you focus on those you may miss the main point you were going to make without that distraction. If you want to take as granted that hit and run has no effect (without even defining clearly what you mean by "hit and run") that's absolutely fine with me.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 07, 02:43 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 07, 02:38 AM 2019
If you read again my post you'll understand that my point is not about agreeing or disagreeing with you about hit and run.
I'm just pointing out that this is a whole different topic - in case you have something specific to say about LLN.

If you want to discuss Hit and Run that's ok too. I'm not prepared at this time to explain my own take on the issue and the possible benefits of such a style of play.

I was just saying this is a topic ("hit and run type of play") where you can read different opinions and if you focus on those you may miss the main point you were going to make without that distraction. If you want to take as granted that hit and run has no effect (without even defining clearly what you mean by "hit and run") that's absolutely fine with me.
Just want to make one observation.

It's normal that people don't wish to post the details on forum. I expect that and I respect that.

I declare I have zero marketing intent in whatever shape and form, not now and not in the future.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 02:51 AM 2019
I classified hit and run at its most general form.

But if we have different levels of hit and run.  I am also open to hearing about it and discussing it.  I’m sure many people can learn something from it.

This topic is a discussion of any theories/facts/myths/ideas.  So we can enter the realm of hit and run since it’s sort of a sub category on the law of large numbers.

Kav, Please if you find time I would enjoy to hear more on your take on this hit and run.  I don’t say this to be in disagreement or anything.  But I enjoy looking at things from different perspective.

Anyone else have a different point of view of hit and run and it falling into LLN?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 07, 02:57 AM 2019
Try to give a specific example of a "Hit and Run" approach. How would that work?

Any hypothetical Hit and Run Strategy.
This is a good exercise in that it will help you understand there are many different ways to play hit and run. Even that hypothetical strategy could use different types of hit and run.

What defines the Hit point? A trigger? Something else? Nothing?
What defines the Run point? A spin sequence? Your bankroll? Time? Number of spins?
The possibilities and the options are really endless.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 07, 03:06 AM 2019
Is it correct to assume that hit and run is a systems strategy instead of a systems method ?

Is it correct to assume that hit and run is a systems strategy that's not applied based on rigid fixed rules, instead the application is discretionary or somewhere in between ?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 07, 03:22 AM 2019
A valid reason for hit and run is favourable and unfavourable conditions. Hit when there are favourable conditions and run when they become unfavourable. But there are some who seriously believe that using hit and run without a good reason (ie favourable and unfavourable conditions) is somehow a way to avoid the LLN. They think that short sessions are better than long sessions, and that playing 10 sessions of 25 spins is better than playing 1 session of 250 spins. Simple arithmetic tells you it isn't. There may be good psychological reasons for keeping sessions short, but it doesn't affect the house edge or LLN.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 07, 03:30 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 07, 03:22 AM 2019
There may be good psychological reasons for keeping sessions short, but it doesn't affect the house edge or LLN.
When the conditions are favourable, it means the player missed the past winning bets that they see now.

Whether the conditions continue to remain favourable for future spins is anybody's guess.

Likewise whether conditions continue to remain unfavourable for future spins can't be predicted by past spins.

Hit and run strategy assumes that past results continue to remain the same for future spins, an extrapolation assumption.

There can be psychological benefits to hit when the past results showed favourable and run when the player is on a losing streak. Just the feel good and feel rotten psychology that help make the gambling experience feel nicer.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 07, 03:50 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 07, 03:30 AM 2019Likewise whether conditions continue to remain unfavourable for future spins can't be predicted by past spins.

lucky, if we're going to have a discussion then we have to at least be consistent and not contradict ourselves. I hope you will point out my inconsistencies, if any, but in the meantime I'm going to point out yours. In a recent post you urged us to  look for dependency (the rest is bullshit, you said). But if future spins can't be predicted by past spins, there can be no dependency. Turbo also relies on dependency for his system to work, and you agree with him (your signature says so).
This is why discussions keep going around in circles; because posters keep contradicting themselves and being inconsistent. It makes rational discourse impossible.

QuoteHit and run strategy assumes that past results continue to remain the same for future spins, an extrapolation assumption.

No necessarily. A change of dealer or ball speed may negatively impact the conditions, and this isn't an assumption, but a fact.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 07, 03:56 AM 2019
Some people prefer to talk vaguely.
It's easier.
None has given a specific example of a hit n run strategy.
It means different things to different people and there are many types of it.
Good luck discussing hit n run in general
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 07, 03:57 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 07, 03:50 AM 2019
No necessarily. A change of dealer or ball speed may negatively impact the conditions, and this isn't an assumption, but a fact.

How the new dealer or ball or rotor speed impacts the future bets, we don't know. Ofc we all wish we know. :)
Joe, this is MoneyT new thread with a new discussion topic.

Pls don't spoil yet another thread with expanded unrelated matters that's not in discussion here.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 07, 04:05 AM 2019
lucky, the topic is about Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas. That's pretty broad and includes the concept of dependency, so I'm not derailing the thread. As long as we keep the discussion civil and don't get personal, it's all fine. I'd like to know where you stand on dependency because from your past posts I'm confused - do you believe it's possible or not? Yes or no will do and then we can move on.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 07, 04:09 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 07, 03:56 AM 2019Some people prefer to talk vaguely.
It's easier.
None has given a specific example of a hit n run strategy.

kav, in your view, when is hit and run justified? Can you give an example of a case when it is and when it isn't?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 07, 04:16 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 07, 04:05 AM 2019
lucky, the topic is about Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas. That's pretty broad and includes the concept of dependency, so I'm not derailing the thread. As long as we keep the discussion civil and don't get personal, it's all fine. I'd like to know where you stand on dependency because from your past posts I'm confused - do you believe it's possible or not? Yes or no will do and then we can move on.
This is my stand stated unambiguously and unequivocably. You may disagree.

I am 100% certain that roulette outcomes generated from dealer, wheel and ball shows elements of dependency under specific condition where future spins are dependent on past spins. Emphasis on certain specific condition.

This condition is determined purely based on math. It does not contain any physical inputs. You must also be aware that the outcome is derived from the physical orientation of the game.

Therefore, in summation, the outcomes from live dealer roulette is mostly random with small pockets of dependency. This element of dependency creates the possibility of prediction based on past outcomes thereby naturally increases the accuracy of the bet.

I hope I convey the correct message across.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 05:12 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 07, 03:56 AM 2019
Some people prefer to talk vaguely.
It's easier.
None has given a specific example of a hit n run strategy.
It means different things to different people and there are many types of it.
Good luck discussing hit n run in general

I can’t give an example because I don’t see how hit and run will help.  Might help in a very short term but with more bets played, I believe whatever bet you are playing will fall to the LLN.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 07, 05:41 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 07, 04:16 AM 2019I am 100% certain that roulette outcomes generated from dealer, wheel and ball shows elements of dependency under specific condition where future spins are dependent on past spins. Emphasis on certain specific condition.

This condition is determined purely based on math. It does not contain any physical inputs. You must also be aware that the outcome is derived from the physical orientation of the game.

Therefore, in summation, the outcomes from live dealer roulette is mostly random with small pockets of dependency. This element of dependency creates the possibility of prediction based on past outcomes thereby naturally increases the accuracy of the bet.

There are several points I would like clarified here, but best left for a new thread. And worth mentioning that it's not Turbo's view that dependence is only to be found on live spins. He believes that the dependency is built in to randomness itself, and claims his system works just as well on RNG as physical wheels.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 05:49 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 07, 05:41 AM 2019
There are several points I would like clarified here, but best left for a new thread. And worth mentioning that it's not Turbo's view that dependence is only to be found on live spins. He believes that the dependency is built in to randomness itself, and claims his system works just as well on RNG as physical wheels.

We can do it here... let’s tackle dependency next it’s one of the topics

1.Law of large number,
2.Independent spins

I just want to get some different views on law of large number.  I hope kav will share more from his point of view.

Anyone else want to add anything?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: redhot on Oct 07, 06:19 AM 2019
LLN is an interesting topic.

Any bet we make is just a combination of single number bets.

If we look at each individual number in our bet and put them into a column in a spreadsheet so each number has it's own column. We then record the result for each number every time we bet them, over the long term they would all fall victim to the LLN (1/37), the sum of each column would be negative. Therefore any combination of these individual number bets would also fail.

The only way out is dependency.

RRBB described this well:

Quote from: rrbb on Jun 18, 05:33 AM 2017
Long time ago i proposed the following thought experiment (disguised as a question).

Lets assume someone claims how to win consistently within roulette.

Now this person plays roulette while you are watching.

You just watch, nothing else.

You see this person placing bets, winning some, loosing some. But overall her bankroll is increasing. You can't believe what you are seeing.

so you decide to focus on one specific possible bet, say, a bet on zero (0) with 1 unit (lets call this a constant bet: the same unit on the same straight over and over again). Whenever 1 unit is placed on zero, it does not matter that more units are on the table at the same time, you track the results.

What would you expect to see?

As the spins are random: a constant bet is a loosing bet. Randomness implies that the spin results are independent of the past results. This clearly holds for straigths.

But every combination of bets can be seen as a combination of constant bets!

So there is no way this person can have a consistent winner... ???

Unless, unless, she came up with a way to make the spin results dependent on past results :o

For straights etc this not possible: no prediction is possible. We do not know what to bet when.

So either we come up with a completely new interpretation of what events to bet on, or we are stuck...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 07, 11:06 AM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 07, 06:19 AM 2019Unless, unless, she came up with a way to make the spin results dependent on past results :o

For straights etc this not possible: no prediction is possible. We do not know what to bet when.

Why is a dependent bet on single numbers not possible and yet is possible for other bets? Can't see the logic.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 11:45 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 07, 11:06 AM 2019
Why is a dependent bet on single numbers not possible and yet is possible for other bets? Can't see the logic.

Good question!  If you read many of redd messages you will notice he already tested for years.  He admits he isn’t as clever as dyksexlic to share information. So it does it in other ways...

What do you take from that?  Why do you think he said that?

I believe he said that to hint towards dependency using groups.

Also he says “new interpretation of what events to bet on”.   With this alone you know it’s not the same events everyone is thinking about when it comes to cycles.

Also when people read dyksexlic messages they believe he only played repeats and he only played straights.  This is false! 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 12:19 PM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 07, 06:19 AM 2019
Therefore any combination of these individual number bets would also fail.

I agree

I go back to this hit and run.  Anyway you want to label it.  If you play more this idea will fail.

The only real hit and run that will work is to get hits before law of large number catches you.

Example: Cycle is 4 spins long and you always bet 3 spins of the cycle.  The overall cycle result determines whether you won or loss. Let’s say sometimes you win on spin 2 sometimes on spin 3 and sometimes spin 4.  But you always stop on a win and continue to play out the cycle by watching it end.

Your placed bets will fall to the LLN but it won’t make sense cause you are winning individual spins before cycle is over.

Stopping on a win but continuing to watch the cycle end.

Whether you placed bets and/or watched.  The LLN will be in effect.

Let’s say I didn’t stop on a win and continue the cycle with a .5 minimum bet on red.(Priyanka videos) So now I placed bets to end the cycle. 

Did that change anything? I still won before the cycle ended and the cycle result is my original bet; just won inside of it. Before the LLN took any effect on my bet overall which was the cycle result.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 07, 12:53 PM 2019
The concept MoneyT is describing is an event wrapped up inside another event. For example we can bet like this:

Event 1, Event 2, Event 3

Or

Event 1
E V E N T 2
E   V   E   N   T   3

Event 3 depends on the outcome of event 1/2.

I am currently investigating a similar thing in the context of MLE since the classic example is EC, Dozen, Line, Street, Number cycle, and at a more basic level is spin vs. cycle.

There's certainly no edge at the basic level from just a few spins vs. a single cycle, but I continue to investigate...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 01:45 PM 2019
Also another subject i want to speak of is this rule that we need to play roulette according to someones standard!

its not wrong if i want to play cycles and you want to play FTL.  Each gameplay will be affected the same but show different results based on your gameplay.

This Game has no rules!!! only the laws of math apply to it as a whole.

So if i take every 5th spin and make a method.  All the 5th spin i took together will give me the same random result as if i played every spin. 

So i believe its a MYTH to think i have to play according to how the numbers come out and i cant be creative.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 03:40 PM 2019
Anyone want to add anything to any of the current topics?

-Law of large numbers
-Independent spins
-random game strategy vs specific game strategy( what’s better?)

Later on I will post an idea... based on dependency
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 07, 04:18 PM 2019
I've often wondered if the LLN is a reversal of the Law of the Third that kicks in after the variance has gone astray to bring everything closer to maths expectation - OR the LLN has effect simply because the sample size grows, rendering the accumulated variance more and more insignificant? In other words: do we start with an excess amount of repeats followed by an excess number of sleepers OR we start with an excess amount of repeats with an increasing sample size that makes the difference seem more and more insignificant over time?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: redhot on Oct 07, 04:27 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 12:19 PM 2019
I agree

I go back to this hit and run.  Anyway you want to label it.  If you play more this idea will fail.

The only real hit and run that will work is to get hits before law of large number catches you.

Example: Cycle is 4 spins long and you always bet 3 spins of the cycle.  The overall cycle result determines whether you won or loss. Let’s say sometimes you win on spin 2 sometimes on spin 3 and sometimes spin 4.  But you always stop on a win and continue to play out the cycle by watching it end.

Your placed bets will fall to the LLN but it won’t make sense cause you are winning individual spins before cycle is over.

Stopping on a win but continuing to watch the cycle end.

Whether you placed bets and/or watched.  The LLN will be in effect.

Let’s say I didn’t stop on a win and continue the cycle with a .5 minimum bet on red.(Priyanka videos) So now I placed bets to end the cycle. 

Did that change anything? I still won before the cycle ended and the cycle result is my original bet; just won inside of it. Before the LLN took any effect on my bet overall which was the cycle result.

I don’t think I understand this correctly. Isn’t the bet on red just another bet which will eventually fall to the Law of large numbers? I’m not sure how that would make a difference?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 06:07 PM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 07, 04:27 PM 2019
I don’t think I understand this correctly. Isn’t the bet on red just another bet which will eventually fall to the Law of large numbers? I’m not sure how that would make a difference?

We are discussing LLN and how we need to take all the bets placed into account but the observed bets don’t count

Ok is there a difference if...

1. I sit at the table and watch 100 spins Per day for 5 days(500 spins)

2. You place 10 bets per 100 spins per day for the same 5 days I witnessed(500 spins)

3. We have a system player join us and he plays every single one of those 100 spins for the 5 days.(500 spins)

Will the LLN be different for all 3 scenarios as a whole(500 spins)?

We all witnessed the same exact spins... but the LLN affects each scenario different based on if WE consider the spins to count on placed bets and/or observed spins.

In my example we play 4 spin cycle.  We can win on spin 1,2,3. But any win we stop play and continue watching the cycle end..LLN won’t make sense if you take in only placed bets without observed bets.

The other scenario is after win stop regular play amount and switch to minimum bet. Cause now these bets are considered placed bets and we can count them. Which is why pri places a bet on red continuously when there was not bet.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 08, 02:38 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 07, 04:18 PM 2019OR the LLN has effect simply because the sample size grows, rendering the accumulated variance more and more insignificant?
this is what it is. 

Placing small amount on red to negate this and justify hit and run ins absolute non starter.  Whether you take the complete set or a subset based on any selection method - LLN will hold good.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: redhot on Oct 08, 05:51 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 06:07 PM 2019
In my example we play 4 spin cycle.  We can win on spin 1,2,3. But any win we stop play and continue watching the cycle end..LLN won’t make sense if you take in only placed bets without observed bets.

The other scenario is after win stop regular play amount and switch to minimum bet. Cause now these bets are considered placed bets and we can count them. Which is why pri places a bet on red continuously when there was not bet.

I think this is the part I'm not understanding.

The way I see the example, we have 3 different betting options, one on spin 1, one on spin 2 and one on spin 3.

We can record the outcome for each bet in a table like below:

(link:s://i.ibb.co/F73jGGd/2019-10-08-10-32-04.jpg)

In the long term, LLN will catch all 3 bets. Another way to look at this is if we take the sum of each row, it will be negative.

If we take cycle 3 for example, we bet on spin 1 and win so we stop betting and observe spins 2 and 3. If we were to bet red on spin 2/3 this would make no difference to the result recorded in the first row. The sum of the first row will still be subject to the LLN whether we bet on spin 2/3 or not.



Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 11:34 AM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 08, 05:51 AM 2019
I think this is the part I'm not understanding.

The way I see the example, we have 3 different betting options, one on spin 1, one on spin 2 and one on spin 3.

We can record the outcome for each bet in a table like below:

(link:s://i.ibb.co/F73jGGd/2019-10-08-10-32-04.jpg)

In the long term, LLN will catch all 3 bets. Another way to look at this is if we take the sum of each row, it will be negative.

If we take cycle 3 for example, we bet on spin 1 and win so we stop betting and observe spins 2 and 3. If we were to bet red on spin 2/3 this would make no difference to the result recorded in the first row. The sum of the first row will still be subject to the LLN whether we bet on spin 2/3 or not.

Thanks for posting it like this, I was thinking of doing something similar last night and fell asleep 😩

All I was trying to say was if you play to win inside of a cycle. You have to take the whole cycle into consideration as 1 Bet.

You can lose 1, 2, and win 3.  But all 3 bets would have to be taken as 1 bet because individually it won’t make sense if you win by the end of a cycle. Then also what I’m saying is if you don’t make the first bet in that same cycle but bet the 3rd bet.  People won’t count it towards the LLN because it’s an observed bet.  But you were there for it and technically that bet is still part of your play you just didn’t bet.  So it should also count towards LLN overall.

In the end it doesn’t matter just small details of what should count and what shouldn’t count.  Overall vs bets placed.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 11:46 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 07, 03:40 PM 2019
Later on I will post an idea... based on dependency

Now with this same mindset of not having to play a specific way and being creative....  Here is an idea, not perfect just throwing idea to think a different way.

If i take spin 1 and spin 2  and make a method... then i take spin 2 and spin 4 and make another method... also take spin 1 and spin 3 and make another method

i run all 3 methods at the same time

method 1.....spins 12,34,56 -consecutive
method 2.....spins 24,46,78 - even
method 3.....spins 13,57,9/11 -odd


i can also make a method using column 1 which is 12,24,13...after first spin i already have my first result for pair 13.

Lets say spin 1 i get R....and the result for 13 i am looking for is BB....since i already have R i know not to bet because I can only get RB or RR to complete my game. My play is dependent on a result of another previous bet

Remember there arent any rules to what you can create or do.  You want to bring different things together that can break out of the norm.

Now what do we know about EC...repeat max length will happen by spin 3
RRR
RRB
RBR
RBB
BBB
BBR
BRB
BRR

when you pair any of the 8 possible 3 spin combinations they all have a repeat.

Each bet will be subject to LLN.  but if a bet is dependent on the result of another bet you can avoid some of the losses before betting :o

I can have two separate bets happening at the same moment in time with one losing and the other winning. When you take each method individually and look at all the bets played they lose according to the LLN.  But when you look overall i can be winning cause some bets cancel other.  Some bets win while others lose.

Please keep in mind this is an idea and im not sharing a direct method to play like this.  You can include cycles to have less bets of happening at the same time.  Just sharing ideas based on the current topic….

Look at the way a dependent event is created with this idea, look at how a bet is based on a previous spin that has nothing to do with the moment.  Also pay attention at how i want to cover every permutation possible.

There are so many things that need to be explored and so many things no one has tried....No right or wrong way to play.

Hope this inspires someone to look at new possibilities  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 08, 12:29 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 11:46 AM 2019My play is dependent on a result of another previous bet

Yes there are endless ways of creating dependencies between bets, but what you need is a dependency which isn't created, but exists already (between spins). No created dependency between bets (or events) can create a dependency between one spin and the next. Except in very artificial situations, there can be no such dependency between spins when the conditions between successive spins haven't changed (which is the normal situation).
I'm not trying to be a naysayer, just responding to your example.

Even acknowledged ways of getting an advantage, such as VB, don't exploit any dependency between spins.  :o
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 12:50 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 08, 12:29 PM 2019
Yes there are endless ways of creating dependencies between bets, but what you need is a dependency which isn't created, but exists already (between spins). No created dependency between bets (or events) can create a dependency between one spin and the next. Except in very artificial situations, there can be no such dependency between spins when the conditions between successive spins haven't changed (which is the normal situation).
I'm not trying to be a naysayer, just responding to your example.

Even acknowledged ways of getting an advantage, such as VB, don't exploit any dependency between spins.  :o

Thank you for explaining it and you are correct and I agree.

Playing roulette spins will always fail and you can’t create dependency. 

Please keep that in mind with all my post to everyone reading and trying different approaches..
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 08, 05:32 PM 2019

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 12:50 PM 2019Playing roulette spins will always fail and you can’t create dependency. 
You are playing a very dangerous game. You know there is no dependency, yet everything you write is opposing that. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 06:18 PM 2019
The issue really is everyone’s understanding of what I’m saying...

I tell you clearly when I’m speaking of LLN how I think observed spins should count if the bet is in the cycle your betting.  I spoke how all 3 bets should count as 1.

So clearly what I am saying you guys are interpreting different and I’m tired of going back and forth and defending myself.  So I say what I want to say about a subject and it’s up to people to understand and read and try.

So Joe is correct no dependency in each spin!  That is a fact!  I can’t deny that! I agree.

But Joe is talking about apples and I am talking about oranges.  His statement on apples is true and no denying it.  But his statement on oranges is wrong and needs to be investigated.

Hope that clears things
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 06:41 PM 2019
It’s crazy how so many people are watching the topic but no one shares their point of view on any of the topics  >:(

Kav, I didn’t forget how you ran as soon as joe and I asked for you to explain your hit and run comment

anyone has any topic they want to talk about? Myth,theory,fact, or idea...

I like pigeonhole but I’m not sure where to even start with that one  :o
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 08, 07:08 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 06:41 PM 2019I like pigeonhole but I’m not sure where to even start with that one 

Start with the hole. 🤪
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: RayManZ on Oct 08, 07:14 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 06:41 PM 2019
It’s crazy how so many people are watching the topic but no one shares their point of view on any of the topics  >:(

Kav, I didn’t forget how you ran as soon as joe and I asked for you to explain your hit and run comment

anyone has any topic they want to talk about? Myth,theory,fact, or idea...

I like pigeonhole but I’m not sure where to even start with that one  :o

I dont know what you are asking to contribute...

I understand your statement about spins vs. cycles or groups. Pri also talked about that.

If you got 2 choices. Black and red.
Group them into 3 results.
Now it will take never more than 9 groups for a group to repeat.

If we do this with 3 choices. Say dozens.
Group them into 3 results
Now it will take never more than 27 groups for a group to repeat.

If i remember correctly...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 07:46 PM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 08, 07:08 PM 2019
Start with the hole. 🤪

😂😂😂

Using lines 1234566

1🕳🐦
2🕳🐦
3🕳🐦
4🕳🐦
5🕳🐦
6🕳🐦🐦
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 08:04 PM 2019
Quote from: RayManZ on Oct 08, 07:14 PM 2019
I dont know what you are asking to contribute...

I understand your statement about spins vs. cycles or groups. Pri also talked about that.

If you got 2 choices. Black and red.
Group them into 3 results.
Now it will take never more than 9 groups for a group to repeat.

If we do this with 3 choices. Say dozens.
Group them into 3 results
Now it will take never more than 27 groups for a group to repeat.

If i remember correctly...

Contribute anything really.  We are just investigating topics and sharing different point of views.

Yea pri did talk about that...

Ec combined into 3 spins( 8(24) combinations) max repeat 27 spins

Dozens combined into 3 spins(27 combinations)  max repeat 30 spins

You can also combine spins how I did in my example(2-4 post back) to make more events that happen at the same time. To create faster repeats using same spin count
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 01:04 AM 2019
It is possible that we are not understanding what you are trying to say. Don’t get tired if you want to get the point across.

This is what you posted as an example.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 11:46 AM 2019i run all 3 methods at the same time

method 1.....spins 12,34,56 -consecutive
method 2.....spins 24,46,78 - even
method 3.....spins 13,57,9/11 -odd

Now what does 34, 56 etc mean.  What does 9/11 mean here. I don’t understand. May be others follow.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Oct 09, 01:06 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 11:46 AM 2019but if a bet is dependent on the result of another bet you can avoid some of the losses before betting
I often wondered things like this with VDW
For example if you observe spin 1 of the finite 9 spins and play for the opposite on spin 2 and you lose, you now get your first A.P opportunity on spin 3.
If the A.P does not form on spin 3, it will not be possible to form on combinations - 2,3,4 or 1,3,5
Meaning future combinations become dependent on what also comes from spin 4
But it's possible you may already have a plan or a chops and changes game in play and get your win on spin 4
So definately i think certain bets can be dependent on future bets
Just depends on your game plan
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Oct 09, 01:21 AM 2019
Who around here has played around with betting plans and combinations around VDW??
Be interested to read into it
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 01:22 AM 2019
All you are trying to do is introduce multiple games in parallel. What difference does it make if you bet on 500 outcomes in one spin or 500 spins. LLN will still come into picture.

Unless you have a way of playing roulette like Money was explaining where you get one shot to play two numbers with odds still at 1:37 which is not possible in a practical situation as you will always be playing for 2:37.  In the example where you are combining RRR etc, you are in essence playing for 1:8 instead of 1:2 and hence it is natural to get the results they are talking about.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 01:37 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 01:04 AM 2019
It is possible that we are not understanding what you are trying to say. Don’t get tired if you want to get the point across.

This is what you posted as an example.

Now what does 34, 56 etc mean.  What does 9/11 mean here. I don’t understand. May be others follow.

This was just an idea on making a result dependent on another result. 

But the numbers are the spins and which spins to combine

Spin 1 & spin 2
Spin 3 & spin 4
Spin 9 & spin 11
Etc
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 01:43 AM 2019
Quote from: mickavelli on Oct 09, 01:21 AM 2019
Who around here has played around with betting plans and combinations around VDW??
Be interested to read into it

If you see the crazy stuff I tried to come up with using vdw or the idea of combining spins 😂

I went as far as wanting to place bets ahead of time to catch a future repeat  😳

Example: Like bet spin 1 in advance aiming for the repeat that happens with spin 1 & spin 4 & spin 7

But since you know spin 1 is responsible for 3 results you place 3 units on it in advance 😂😂

My brain was frying with the thinking I was attempting to make this bet possible 😂😂😂

I had a headache for months 😂

Sh*t talking about it makes me want to try it again 😂😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 01:56 AM 2019

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 01:37 AM 2019
This was just an idea on making a result dependent on another result. 

The devil is always in the details. How does that combining help you is what am not able to understand. You can ofcourse combine two EC to see as one bet. But that is automatically going to become 1:4 bet which has its own disadvantages.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Oct 09, 02:05 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 01:43 AM 2019Sh*t talking about it makes me want to try it again 😂😂😂😂😂
lol mate... Intellectual stimulation👍
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 02:09 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 01:56 AM 2019
The devil is always in the details. How does that combining help you is what am not able to understand. You can ofcourse combine two EC to see as one bet. But that is automatically going to become 1:4 bet which has its own disadvantages.

In the way I explained it... you still bet 1 time (50/50).  You just use the first result to confirm if the bet is playable.

The idea is to make a result dependent on another.  But you don’t have to use this.. it’s just me throwing ideas
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 02:18 AM 2019
Quote from: mickavelli on Oct 09, 02:05 AM 2019
lol mate... Intellectual stimulation👍

Hahaah I can’t head down that road again 🥴🤒
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 02:29 AM 2019
Quote from: mickavelli on Oct 09, 01:06 AM 2019
If the A.P does not form on spin 3, it will not be possible to form on combinations - 2,3,4 or 1,3,5
Meaning future combinations become dependent on what also comes from spin 4

Exactly... you already know which combinations have a possibility of forming or not forming

Now combine this same idea with cycles... let’s say within a cycle you can have an idea if it will win or lose.  Look at my method 1/method 2/method 3 example.

Is it possible to already have an idea?

Btw you don’t need this!  It’s just ideas to make things different and fun. This isn’t needed to win and things don’t have to be complicated.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 09, 03:19 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 06:18 PM 2019So Joe is correct no dependency in each spin!  That is a fact!  I can’t deny that! I agree.

But Joe is talking about apples and I am talking about oranges.  His statement on apples is true and no denying it.  But his statement on oranges is wrong and needs to be investigated.

Which was my statement about oranges? You agreed with me that there can be no dependency between spins.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Oct 09, 03:49 AM 2019
The way i see it from your explanation....
The decision to bet on a future spin combination is based on a previous result that is an already predetermined betting combination.. So based on the previous result, our predetermined betting combination has a bet or it doesnt.. But the way you have constructed it we have overlapping bets between the rows and columns! Really interesting!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 09, 06:10 AM 2019
And how would you say this is different from what most call a “trigger”?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Oct 09, 08:18 AM 2019
I'm confused by that also. My understanding was that you cannot wait, every spin must be bet. Aren't we waiting for triggers if we do not bet every spin? I don't think betting minimum on EC while tracking count as "real" bets.
Quote from: Priyanka on Nov 07, 06:25 AM 2017
This is a waiting game and doing a virtual bet. For any of the concepts to have the chance of working, the basic premise is we can’t play a virtual game. We will have to play every spin which is part of what people call a personal permanence. 
Quote from: Priyanka on Oct 10, 08:16 AM 2017No waiting, no looking for events, keep betting continuously.
Quote from: PriyankaYou cannot play a waiting game waiting for your favourable event to occur.
Quote from: reddwarf on Feb 10, 03:12 AM 2012"waiting on certain patterns" will not work either
Quote from: reddwarf on Feb 10, 05:53 AM 20123. the "waiting for a win event" game must be avoided at all costs

Priyanka's 5 cent bets are meaningless, those were just to complete a cycle, as he didn't want to show a complete system, just how certain concepts can be used. Also, there are only 3 free spins allowed on Betvoyager, so it's simpler to bet the minimum on EC, while tracking.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 08:49 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 09, 06:10 AM 2019
And how would you say this is different from what most call a “trigger”?

I think we confuse this...

Waiting for 3 reds to happen and then betting black is waiting for something that can happen now or in 5,10,20 spins, etc

Let’s say I want to bet the 3rd spin cause I believe it will result in double street 2

I can play the 2nd spin if I choose and all I have to play is every number except 2 and the defining number 🤪

Or I can just sit this spin out and observe( which you would consider waiting) then play my double street 2 in the next spin

So don’t I just place a bet on red to get to the next bet?idk you decide what’s best for you and what you feel comfortable doing

But am I just randomly waiting or is there a purpose? 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 09, 08:59 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 08:49 AM 2019

I can play the 2nd spin if I choose and all I have to play is every number except 2 and the defining number 🤪


Hi MoneyT,
Why not number 2?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 09:37 AM 2019
I think we are confusing different things here.  When you bet on a position irrespective of what decision metrics you use in your mind, mainframe calculAtor etc, you end up in a bet on a position and over a period of time LLN will catch up on that position.  Now if you are making it part of another spin and combining the bets, unless you place bets on all the combined spins, it is an individual bet.  The rest is all in your mind. 

Look at the following statement.
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 08:49 AM 2019Let’s say I want to bet the 3rd spin cause I believe it will result in double street 2
It is in your mind. There is no bet selection which can tell you that the next will result in double street 2
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 10:15 AM 2019
Blood angel and tinsoldiers I’ll reply later...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 09, 10:19 AM 2019
yes, still predicting and waiting.  Total mind game.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 09, 10:21 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 06:41 PM 2019
It’s crazy how so many people are watching the topic but no one shares their point of view on any of the topics  >:(
Kav, I didn’t forget how you ran as soon as joe and I asked for you to explain your hit and run comment
I'm not used to running. I clearly stated that I'm not prepared to explain my position on hit and run. I already said so twice, on the first page of this topic. Don't you read your own topic? I'm saying so now a third time. Simple as that.

Why I'm not doing it? For various reasons. For example someone who is running around himself in cycles (pun intended) would probably misunderstand me. Hey! he didn't understand that I already said twice that I'm not prepared to explain my take on the matter, how would he be able to understand something more subtle than a clear statement.

People do not take part in the discussion because it has no focus, no structure and it is full of useless gibberish.

If you still want to hear my... wisdom about the discussion here, take this:

this is all wrong from the get go.
LLN is a good thing. I like it. I want it. LLN is my friend. It helps me win.
So I don't get why most of you describe it with phrases like "LLN will catch up", like it is something to be avoided.
I'm on a totally different page with most of the posters.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 09, 11:25 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 09, 10:21 AM 2019LLN is a good thing. I like it. I want it. LLN is my friend. It helps me win.

How? It's contrary to the maths because LLN guarantees that probabilities will approach their theoretical values, which is not good news if you don't have an edge.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 09, 12:52 PM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 09, 10:21 AM 2019
I'm not used to running. I clearly stated that I'm not prepared to explain my position on hit and run. I already said so twice, on the first page of this topic. Don't you read your own topic? I'm saying so now a third time. Simple as that.

Why I'm not doing it? For various reasons. For example someone who is running around himself in cycles (pun intended) would probably misunderstand me. Hey! he didn't understand that I already said twice that I'm not prepared to explain my take on the matter, how would he be able to understand something more subtle than a clear statement.

People do not take part in the discussion because it has no focus, no structure and it is full of useless gibberish.

If you still want to hear my... wisdom about the discussion here, take this:

this is all wrong from the get go.
LLN is a good thing. I like it. I want it. LLN is my friend. It helps me win.
So I don't get why most of you describe it with phrases like "LLN will catch up", like it is something to be avoided.
I'm on a totally different page with most of the posters.
I don't see why trying to follow variance is a good thing either as it's a break even game whether you play repeaters or sleepers. Variance is not something that can be predicted.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 09, 01:39 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 09, 11:25 AM 2019
How? It's contrary to the maths because LLN guarantees that probabilities will approach their theoretical values, which is not good news if you don't have an edge.

Define edge.

I'm tired of speaking vaguely about hit and run, edge and what not.
For any meaningful discussion you need to define your terminology - everyone.
That's a big part why I don't find purpose in such discussions.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 09, 02:06 PM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 09, 01:39 PM 2019
Define edge.

I'm tired of speaking vaguely about hit and run, edge and what not.
For any meaningful discussion you need to define your terminology - everyone.
That's a big part why I don't find purpose in such discussions.
There's a contradiction about what edge is: on one hand Priyanka said it's about increasing accuracy of predictions - but then later it's claimed that edge has nothing to do with prediction. More wins than losses has been touted - but without ever acknowledging risk/reward and the fact that double dozens is always going to result in more wins than losses, albeit break even.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 09, 02:48 PM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 09, 01:39 PM 2019Define edge.

I'm tired of speaking vaguely about hit and run, edge and what not.
For any meaningful discussion you need to define your terminology - everyone.

Kav, since you claim that the LLN is a good thing, and assuming you understand what it means, you must have a positive edge.   ;)

Edge is defined very simply by this empirical formula :

Edge = profit / loss divided by total staked

Or you could use the standard formula for expectation :

EV = Sum (p1 * x1, p2 * x2, ... pn * xn), from which you can derive the well known -2.7% value for single zero roulette. p is the probability of occurrence and x is a random variable with the probability function f(x), and n is the number of all possible values.

To be honest, I can't believe you don't know this already. I think you just like to be contrary, for whatever reasons.  :-X

But I do agree with you that people are far too vague and rarely define their terms because not many are familiar with the relevant maths.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 09, 03:00 PM 2019
I didn't ask how you calculate edge, but where it comes from, what constitutes edge (in your opinion).
You are absorbed in your calculations but you don't give a meaningful definition of "edge".
By your equation, any lucky gambler has an edge.

Before going into deep waters it's better to understand the basics.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 03:29 PM 2019
I’m still a little busy and can’t reply with much detailed answers but I will get to every post later

Kav, you don’t need anyone to define specifically what they mean about something so you can share your thought on it!

We asked you about what YOU understand as hit and run.  So you explain what it means to you.

Once you define your terminology then anyone can either understand, agree, disagree or what not.  But everyone here commenting made it clear what they thought something means to them.   So stop using that as an excuse to keep avoiding what you mean.  If you don’t want to comment just say so....
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 09, 03:37 PM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 09, 03:00 PM 2019you don't give a meaningful definition of "edge".

A mathematical definition is the most meaningful. We are talking about gambling here, which ultimately comes down to numbers. A 'wordy' definition would just be a mathematical definition but phrased in words instead of symbols. What's the point, when mathematics is less ambiguous and more succinct?

I suppose it could be something like : edge is your profit or loss after a large number of repeated trials. This has nothing to do with how you get your edge, it's just an abstract definition.

QuoteBy your equation, any lucky gambler has an edge.

No, that's where the LLN comes in. Edge and LLN are related because the latter guarantees that, given a fair game, the more you play the closer you will come to break even. If the game isn't fair, the more you play the more profit you make if the edge is positive and the more you will lose if it's negative. 

What's your definition of edge?

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 09, 03:48 PM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 09, 03:00 PM 2019I didn't ask how you calculate edge, but where it comes from

It comes from being able to predict outcomes such that the probability of a win is consistently higher than that of the probability implied by the payouts.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 03:51 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 09, 03:37 PM 2019What's your definition of edge?
You are into sports. What’s your bet on getting an answer for this. :)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 09, 04:24 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 03:51 PM 2019
You are into sports. What’s your bet on getting an answer for this. :)

Not even a cent!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 09, 04:26 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 09, 03:48 PM 2019
It comes from being able to predict outcomes such that the probability of a win is consistently higher than that of the probability implied by the payouts.

How?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ozon on Oct 09, 04:28 PM 2019
I don't know if your conversations will lead to any specific theories that will be clearly presented.

I have recently come full circle and returned to total brutal force.
In my free time I played RS something so banal simple that it is hard to believe.
I started the 15 spins session, chose EC with 5 or less hits, and played for the next 15 spins.
I did not count on RTM, but on more stable 15 spins.
Brutal force is Labby with 2000 units bankroll, if the progression did not end in 15 spins window, I continued it in the next session.
Why it works?
and probably one day a bad series will come, but for now, there is a big plus.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 09, 04:35 PM 2019
Kav, have the courage of your convictions; answer my question first. What's your definition of edge?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 09, 04:37 PM 2019
I feel like I'm in the Tower of Babel.

I guess if I write something like this I will get upvoted:

The edge of the LLN after the number of cycles overcomes statistical significance would impose an increase of the accuracy of predictions to a level of certainty that would absorb randomness to the limits of the perceived advantageous dependency of the bet selection, by creating a personal permanence that overcomes the odds without changing the cyclical parameters of the physical/mechanical aspects of the game. Therefore resulting in a large scale, semi-independent series of independent events that although unpredictable can be forecasted with increased accuracy without invalidating the random conformity of the long run.

Good luck everyone!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 09, 04:46 PM 2019
lol, gibberish.  ;D
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 09, 07:16 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 09, 04:46 PM 2019
lol, gibberish.  ;D
Tells us the level of understanding here is very low with lots of twisted word nonsense.

Ppl are guided by their beliefs and opinions instead of math.

This thread carries the proof.

Ppl, pls read Joe's posts, his is the real math. Compare them to what others wrote. Identify the mistakes and misunderstandings. Opportunity to learn from this. Correct yourself. End your ignorance. I have written this earlier. It's your choice to make.

You can't find the bet with positive edge if you don't understand basic math. Zero chance. This is the incentive for you to learn math.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 09, 07:30 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 09, 03:37 PM 2019
A mathematical definition is the most meaningful. We are talking about gambling here, which ultimately comes down to numbers. A 'wordy' definition would just be a mathematical definition but phrased in words instead of symbols. What's the point, when mathematics is less ambiguous and more succinct?
I have repeatedly wrote roulette game is a math puzzle.

The solution has to be based on math.
There is no other way, other than cheating AP, rc and perhaps precog.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Bigbroben on Oct 09, 08:36 PM 2019
LLN will give some capacity of calculating how lucky or unlucky your ride has been vis a vis the mean, i.e. deviation from mean.  Both opposites are true though:  at every spin, no matter what's behind or what is forecasted to happen, it's 36 You against 37 Them.  That's it.  Soon or later it will cost 37 to win 36.
All other stats are irrelevant for the present spin, in a pure random scenario.  At worse, they represent the hopes a loser clings to when not accepting the mathematical reality of rng roulette.

So why the 50 shades of strategies?!?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 10:30 PM 2019
Quote from: Blood Angel on Oct 09, 08:59 AM 2019
Hi MoneyT,
Why not number 2?

In the example i used... Lets say for some reason I want to play double street 2 to happen in the third spin.  We arent talking about why i decided to bet that.  Lets just say thats my decision.

previous cycle was 41533....

so new cycle starts with Double street 3.  I want to play double street 2 in the third spin

so 1st spin is already set in stone and its 3
if i already know im playing 2 3rd spin, second spin can be 1,2,3,4,5,6 but if im playing it means im ruling out early repeat(3). so now i still have 1,2,4,5,6. 

If 2 comes out in the second spin and i play 2 on the 3rd spin we complete the cycle and I im not playing for the cycle to end yet so i have to rule out 2.

so second spin i can only choose 1456.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 10:34 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 09, 09:37 AM 2019
I think we are confusing different things here.  When you bet on a position irrespective of what decision metrics you use in your mind, mainframe calculAtor etc, you end up in a bet on a position and over a period of time LLN will catch up on that position.  Now if you are making it part of another spin and combining the bets, unless you place bets on all the combined spins, it is an individual bet.  The rest is all in your mind. 

Look at the following statement. It is in your mind. There is no bet selection which can tell you that the next will result in double street 2

Yes your right should bet all combined spins to make more sense
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 10:41 PM 2019
Kav, I accept your response on LLN and edge.  Thank you!

Yes i will continue to run in circles with my cycles and my pigeonhole.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 10:44 PM 2019
Quote from: Bigbroben on Oct 09, 08:36 PM 2019
LLN will give some capacity of calculating how lucky or unlucky your ride has been vis a vis the mean, i.e. deviation from mean.  Both opposites are true though:  at every spin, no matter what's behind or what is forecasted to happen, it's 36 You against 37 Them.  That's it.  Soon or later it will cost 37 to win 36.
All other stats are irrelevant for the present spin, in a pure random scenario.  At worse, they represent the hopes a loser clings to when not accepting the mathematical reality of rng roulette.

So why the 50 shades of strategies?!?

Thank you, i enjoyed the way you explained it
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Bigbroben on Oct 09, 11:18 PM 2019
Alright, so how do you escape the spin-per-spin disadvantageous odds?  Luck?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 10, 12:47 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 10:30 PM 2019
In the example i used... Lets say for some reason I want to play double street 2 to happen in the third spin.  We arent talking about why i decided to bet that.  Lets just say thats my decision.

previous cycle was 41533....

so new cycle starts with Double street 3.  I want to play double street 2 in the third spin

so 1st spin is already set in stone and its 3
if i already know im playing 2 3rd spin, second spin can be 1,2,3,4,5,6 but if im playing it means im ruling out early repeat(3). so now i still have 1,2,4,5,6. 

If 2 comes out in the second spin and i play 2 on the 3rd spin we complete the cycle and I im not playing for the cycle to end yet so i have to rule out 2.

so second spin i can only choose 1456.

Gottcha, thank you for the reply MoneyT.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Still on Oct 10, 01:57 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 09, 07:16 PM 2019


. This is the incentive for you to learn math.

Oh! The local community college is teaching math. Might still be time to enroll. What course do you suggest?  Algebra 101?  Statistics 202? Calculus 303?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 02:26 AM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 10, 01:57 AM 2019
Oh! The local community college is teaching math. Might still be time to enroll. What course do you suggest?  Algebra 101?  Statistics 202? Calculus 303?
At least you don't write stupid math on forum. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Oct 10, 02:27 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 08, 11:46 AM 2019Look at the way a dependent event is created with this idea, look at how a bet is based on a previous spin that has nothing to do with the moment.  Also pay attention at how i want to cover every permutation possible.

What are everyones thoughts on this?
Let's come back to this part for a moment  before it gets away
Care to elaborate money?
To me you are hinting at constructing a kind of non random betting plan over the course of a finite amount of spins?? This would explain the "Either we have a bet or we don't" using spins in time throughout a kind of matrix



Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 02:45 AM 2019

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 09, 10:34 PM 2019Yes your right should bet all combined spins to make more sense
Thanks Money. This is where I question the dependency factor.  If you are betting all combined spins it automatically becomes, let’s say if you are combining two spins and both of them are ECs, a 1:4 bet. What’s then the difference between this and a 9 number bet. All are the same right, with LLN eventually working it’s way out. No?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 02:48 AM 2019
Quote from: mickavelli on Oct 10, 02:27 AM 2019Care to elaborate money?
As I always say the devil is In the details. While Money is attempting to elaborate, constructing a non random betting plan over a finite spins are useless if there is no change in the end to the expectation of outcome or a plan that yields positive results at a point when the plan ends without even changing expectation.   That’s the part people have struggled to disclose and others have struggled to understand. 

Examples have to be to the point to for anyone to understand.  While theoretically, as a going in assumption that is what is needed as a premise to win this game, I struggle to see a practical applicability as everyone else. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 03:15 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 02:48 AM 2019
As I always say the devil is In the details. While Money is attempting to elaborate, constructing a non random betting plan over a finite spins are useless if there is no change in the end to the expectation of outcome or a plan that yields positive results at a point when the plan ends without even changing expectation.   That’s the part people have struggled to disclose and others have struggled to understand. 

Examples have to be to the point to for anyone to understand.  While theoretically, as a going in assumption that is what is needed as a premise to win this game, I struggle to see a practical applicability as everyone else.
Valid question deserves proper response.

Read the true math dependency in Joe's post.

Quote from: Joe on Oct 08, 12:29 PM 2019
Yes there are endless ways of creating dependencies between bets, but what you need is a dependency which isn't created, but exists already (between spins). No created dependency between bets (or events) can create a dependency between one spin and the next. Except in very artificial situations, there can be no such dependency between spins when the conditions between successive spins haven't changed (which is the normal situation).
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Oct 10, 03:28 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 02:48 AM 2019I struggle to see a practical applicability as everyone else. 

Hey TS,
So what was it you have tried or thought of while using this rows/columns idea??
Just EC's? Or cycles etc
Looking for ideas going forward
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 10, 06:21 AM 2019
Money, you may want to check with your followers on the following - do they have a clear understanding of a cycle.  May sound basic and obvious but perhaps something is missing.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 10, 07:10 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 10, 06:21 AM 2019do they have a clear understanding of a cycle

I don't, so I'd like it clarified. And also the suggestion seems to be that using cycles can somehow create dependency - how?

I mean a real dependency, not the kind of pseudo dependency which doesn't affect the possible outcomes from one spin to the next. In probability terms, a real dependency should change the sample space.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 08:36 AM 2019
Quote from: Bigbroben on Oct 09, 11:18 PM 2019
Alright, so how do you escape the spin-per-spin disadvantageous odds?  Luck?

When you include more spins
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 08:36 AM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 10, 01:57 AM 2019
Oh! The local community college is teaching math. Might still be time to enroll. What course do you suggest?  Algebra 101?  Statistics 202? Calculus 303?

😂😂😂

This was good
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 08:41 AM 2019
Quote from: mickavelli on Oct 10, 02:27 AM 2019
What are everyones thoughts on this?
Let's come back to this part for a moment  before it gets away
Care to elaborate money?
To me you are hinting at constructing a kind of non random betting plan over the course of a finite amount of spins?? This would explain the "Either we have a bet or we don't" using spins in time throughout a kind of matrix

Yea but like I said it’s an idea.  But you don’t need things to be that complicated to find a way to breakout. It’s just fun trying different things and using some of the concepts
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 08:44 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 02:45 AM 2019
Thanks Money. This is where I question the dependency factor.  If you are betting all combined spins it automatically becomes, let’s say if you are combining two spins and both of them are ECs, a 1:4 bet. What’s then the difference between this and a 9 number bet. All are the same right, with LLN eventually working it’s way out. No?

If you keep both ideas separate then they will lose according to its math.  But if you somehow combine them, maybe you can use it to compliment each other
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 08:49 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 10, 06:21 AM 2019
Money, you may want to check with your followers on the following - do they have a clear understanding of a cycle.  May sound basic and obvious but perhaps something is missing.

I know this is the problem but I don’t want to go into specific detail in the forum.  I gave enough information throughout all my post on what a cycle means to me

I’ve even went out of my way to compare joe to speaking apples and I’m talking about oranges

Next topic money management 🤪
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 08:57 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 10, 07:10 AM 2019
I don't, so I'd like it clarified. And also the suggestion seems to be that using cycles can somehow create dependency - how?

I mean a real dependency, not the kind of pseudo dependency which doesn't affect the possible outcomes from one spin to the next. In probability terms, a real dependency should change the sample space.

link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17115.0

Simple dependency shared in the forum
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 09:02 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 10, 07:10 AM 2019
I don't, so I'd like it clarified. And also the suggestion

Let me put my understanding. A cycle is a set of unique outcomes. The moment a repeat happens it closes a cycle. In a span of 37 spins in an European roulette, there can be a minimum of one cycle to a maximum of 37 cycles theoretically. 

Cycles don’t create dependency.  However there is a relationship between cycles that starting element of these cycle sets are prominent from a probability point of view because of the nature cycles are constructed.  Example for an even chance cycle - red and black, the possible cycles are R, RB if the cycle starts with R. In this scenario, it goes to say that starting element of next cycle has a 75% probability to be the starting element of the previous cycle. This relationship can not be misconstrued to be a dependency. However the suggestion in the past has been this way of looking at roulette spins as short unique number  streams can help in identifying a way to change expectations(does it??, I haven’t got a clue).

Quote from: Joe on Oct 10, 07:10 AM 2019In probability terms, a real dependency should change the sample space.
Right. There are ways to do this. In math term there are ways to get P(A and B) =P(A).P(B|A) in roulette.  There is no way next spin is dependent on any of the previous spins. It is absurd even to expect this.

It is all in the definition of your events. We need at least two streams to exhibit any kind of dependency.

One example is, People have been speaking earlier about using order of position stream as a dependent stream to the spin stream. What is the probability that a repeat happens in spin stream and the order of position stream is low.  Given a repeat happens in one stream, the probability of order stream being low even chance is much much higher than 50%. There goes your dependency.

Even simpler is consider a line stream and a street stream. What is the probability that a line stream repeat happens in the next spin given street stream repeats in the next spin. There goes inherent dependency.

I have totally not considered whether this can Be used to construct a systematic play to win in roulette as discussion is beyond winning. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 09:07 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 08:44 AM 2019But if you somehow combine them, maybe you can use it to compliment each other
Again devil is in the detail. What is this somehow part. Be clear on what you are trying to say before jumping to another topic.  It doesn’t help anyone and I understand your intention was to discuss clearly the math behind everything without any personal attacks. No personal attacks here, can you please explain your understanding of this “somehow”.

According to me This “somehow” doesn’t exist.  If it doesn’t exist LLN is still going to come in. Do you agree?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 09:10 AM 2019
Quote from: mickavelli on Oct 10, 03:28 AM 2019Looking for ideas going forward
Mick I really liked your idea of (1,9), (2,8)...(5) from the other post. Trying to see how it can influence different streams.

Else, what we are doing is brainstorming, no one has a solution as far as I know. If we stumble on a idea or a solution it is good. The more we question the basics and the facts and more we discuss, may be.... may be we will unearth something worthy.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 10, 09:53 AM 2019
Yet, I was advised you could not 'stumble' and to 'not think in solutions.'
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 10:00 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 09:02 AM 2019
Given a repeat happens in one stream, the probability of order stream being low even chance is much much higher than 50%. There goes your dependency.
Can this be interpreted simply as greater than 50% of the time the first repeat hit inside the first 18uniques ?

The order of this "order stream" has no statistical significance.

The probability of binomial distribution is more relevant,
P(x) = nCx.px.q(n-x)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 10:15 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 10:00 AM 2019Can this be interpreted simply as greater than 50% of the time the first repeat hit inside the first 18uniques ?

Absolutely. Let me not comment on the formula though :p

But let’s not get into whether it is statistically significant or not, as that then leads on to whether we can create an edge or not.  Everything has a mathematical explanation because roulette is either maths or physics. 

The simple question was how to create dependent events in probability terms and these are two examples.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 10:23 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 10:00 AM 2019
Can this be interpreted simply as greater than 50% of the time the first repeat hit inside the first 18uniques?

Yes true

But also if you think of it the second stream gives you a stream that consists of the other and it’s dependent on it. 

Like redd said you can use it by itself and it’s just as random. But every number you play according to the new stream correlates to the original table

So we have found another dependent event.

Originally I said if you can break any assumption then you can find a way to get ahead.  Redd created dependent stream.....

No I want the other side of the argument...who says this isn’t dependent?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 10:27 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 10, 09:53 AM 2019
Yet, I was advised you could not 'stumble' and to 'not think in solutions.'
Stop sulking and speak for yourselves. On a slightly different point of view, there are good and bad advices, but the prerogative to follow them or not is yours and yours only.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 10, 10:42 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 10:27 AM 2019
Stop sulking and speak for yourselves. On a slightly different point of view, there are good and bad advices, but the prerogative to follow them or not is yours and yours only.

Sulking?  Pointing to your contradictions is not sulking.  You may want to check your English definitions.   And the prerogative to be full of sh!t is yours, as well.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 10:43 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 10:23 AM 2019
No I want the other side of the argument...who says this isn’t dependent?
We can create all sorts of betting decision based on order stream or whatever of what to bet, when to bet and how much to bet. This makes our bet decision dependent on past spins.

That does not mean the outcome of such order stream based betting decision is dependent on past spins.

Our dependent betting decision does not equate to dependent outcome.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 10:50 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 10:43 AM 2019
We can create all sorts of betting decision based on order stream or whatever of what to bet, when to bet and how much to bet. This makes our bet decision dependent on past streams.

That does not mean the outcome of such order stream based betting decision is dependent on past spins.

Our dependent betting decision does not equate to dependent outcome.
To the point.

But why are you assuming that we have to create a betting decision based on past spins. Creating a decision based on this is again absurd, as we all know it doesn’t work and no one can predict.

You have got two dependent streams, what is stopping you from doing a fixed templatized bet on these streams instead.  A thought, or as Mick would prefer an idea. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 10:51 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 10, 10:42 AM 2019Pointing to your contradictions is not sulking. 
What did I contradict. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 10:59 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 10:50 AM 2019
To the point.

But why are you assuming that we have to create a betting decision based on past spins. Creating a decision based on this is again absurd, as we all know it doesn’t work and no one can predict.

You have got two dependent streams, what is stopping you from doing a fixed templatized bet on these streams instead.  A thought, or as Mick would prefer an idea.
Thanks for seeing something... I actually thought you would be one of the ppl against me on this 😅

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 11:06 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 10:59 AM 2019Thanks for seeing something... I actually thought you would be one of the ppl against me on this 😅
I am not for or against.  Am still waiting for an answer on my last question from you :P. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 11:15 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 11:06 AM 2019
I am not for or against.  Am still waiting for an answer on my last question from you :P.

Which question exactly?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 11:22 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 10:50 AM 2019
You have got two dependent streams, what is stopping you from doing a fixed templatized bet on these streams instead.  A thought, or as Mick would prefer an idea.
Ofc you can.

The purpose ?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 11:44 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 11:22 AM 2019The purpose ?
Purpose is to find a fixed templatized bet that is taking into consideration all the outcomes that is possible and have a solution for the same, so that for a fixed number of spins you always end up in the positive, for all possible combination of these dependent streams.

I don’t think such a fixed template exists, but theoretically that seems the only way ahead, as we clearly know past doesn’t have any influence on future spins.


And Money, this was the question.
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 09:07 AM 2019According to me This “somehow” doesn’t exist.  If it doesn’t exist LLN is still going to come in. Do you agree?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 11:51 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 11:44 AM 2019
I don’t think such a fixed template exists, but theoretically that seems the only way ahead,

I found no reason to explore this road.

as we clearly know past doesn’t have any influence on future spins.

I had a closed mind, super sure until ...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 01:44 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 11:51 AM 2019

No puzzles pls.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Still on Oct 10, 04:14 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 02:26 AM 2019
At least you don't write stupid math on forum. :thumbsup:

I emphasize skills in Excel once it's understood that the house has a mathematical advantage something like 37 (or 38)  of theirs to 36 of yours plus LaPartage rules and the supposed independence of spins.

You'll need Excel to disprove the independence of spins theorem short of Einstein level math skills. 

You only need enough math to manipulate Excel to produce scientific results.

Otherwise the harangue to learn math is a vague kind of smoke and mirrors...something to hide behind.

Excel or Einstien. Choose.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 10, 06:29 PM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 10, 04:14 PM 2019Excel or Einstien. Choose.

Einstein.  Only always.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 07:01 PM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 10, 04:14 PM 2019
Otherwise the harangue to learn math is a vague kind of smoke and mirrors...something to hide behind.

Excel or Einstien. Choose.
The reason why I kept bringing up this learn your math repeatedly is this error, mistakes and misunderstanding is real. Just read the posts on this thread. If you can't see them your math is just as bad.

Ability to code is not the same as understanding math. If you think both of them are the one and the same, my call to learn math is appropriate. Proper knowledge of math is more important than the skill to code. Although coding skill is necessary to assist in big data test work. My previous post highlighted this point.

Your smoke on mirrors comment carry more weight if you show better math knowledge. At least get your basics right.

If you make proper math related post, I will respond. Else you can continue enjoy your wordy sarcasm with no response from me.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 07:18 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 01:44 PM 2019
No puzzles pls.
If you think no such fixed template exist, and

more importantly, you believe in there is no possibility that spins are not independent,

It means that you have to conclude systems bet is a 100% sure loser.

It only make sense, that discussion, analysis or test work is no more relevant.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Still on Oct 10, 08:24 PM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 10, 06:29 PM 2019
Einstein.  Only always.

Ok well it was Einstein at his level of math that said you can't beat the wheel. 

Likely there is no newer math that says you can and if so Luckyfeller is not at that level.

What is new since Einstein are spreadsheets and programming languages available to anyone with basic math and basic algebra experience.

If your going to find a way to beat the wheel that is the path you must go. Otherwise you are probably hiding something.  Standing next to a math statue cannot give anyone enough authority by association to hide basic ignorance.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 09:02 PM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 10, 08:24 PM 2019
Likely there is no newer math that says you can and if so Luckyfeller is not at that level.

This bolded is true.

What is new since Einstein are spreadsheets and programming languages available to anyone with basic math and basic algebra experience.

If your going to find a way to beat the wheel that is the path you must go.

Coders with their coding skills are over-rating their ability to achieve.
I repeat, if you steadfastly believe in the spins are independent, no amount of coding skill will change this that you believe in. That's the obvious contradiction I point out so many times. Yet you fail to understand this basic math.

Moving on from this. Not wasting any more time.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 09:15 PM 2019
 This discussion has deteriorated to focus on the person. Instead of the topic of discussion.

If you check Still posting history, he did the same thing in the past. History repeats itself.

I want no part of this. Enjoy yourself, have fun. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Still on Oct 10, 09:51 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 09:15 PM 2019
This discussion has deteriorated to focus on the person. Instead of the topic of discussion.

If you check Still posting history, he did the same thing in the past. History repeats itself.

I want no part of this. Enjoy yourself, have fun. :thumbsup:

Checking my history would reveal I have unofficially moderated two to four cases of unbridled hubris that went beyond annoying. If you would not bring attention to yourself I would not call you out.  You should just talk about the math or just reference the Wizard Of Odds...whose math says the game can't be beaten as is.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 10:06 PM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 10, 09:51 PM 2019
You should just talk about the math or just reference the Wizard Of Odds...whose math says the game can't be beaten as is.
The math says spin outcomes are independent and unbiased.

If YOU believe in this independent spins, then all the discussion, templates, coding, analysing, testing, money management or whatever is useless and clear contradiction.

That's why I asked steve to shut down his systems forum.

That's the ONLY message I bring to this forum. Nothing else. I hope I am clear this time, and not misconconstrued and misquoted again.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 11:01 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 10, 09:07 AM 2019
According to me This “somehow” doesn’t exist.  If it doesn’t exist LLN is still going to come in. Do you agree?

You can have two ppl bet opposite of each other and sometimes one will win sometimes the other will win.  But in the end they both will lose.

Victim to the House edge and LLN

But what you can also take from this is that every bet you make is independent from any other bet you make.  Same way every spin is independent from any other spin.

So you can play one game and do something and you can play another game and do something else. Playing independent games at the same time.  Both separate bets will have to deal with LLN the more you play. 

But you control the rules of when,what,where to bet. Your actual bets placed is also affected by the LLN.

But if you have game 1 and game 2 and 1 bankroll for both games.  You play in a way where either game wins you win and reset.

Game 1 independently will win at different spins from game 2 but the bankroll isn’t affected by the LLN cause the game isn’t long enough on your bets placed.

This next example will not work just making a point...

Ec Max spins is 3
Double street max spin is 7

But if each time ec wins you take profit before double street keeps going.  You won’t ever reach the 7 spins with double street getting.  Which also takes advantage of double street early wins.  But again this is not the correct combination. Just an example...

I actually created a table to show you how it looks but decided not to share any further.  I’ve said enough on the subject.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Still on Oct 10, 11:01 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 10:06 PM 2019
The math says spin outcomes are independent and unbiased.

If YOU believe in this independent spins, then all the discussion, templates, coding, analysing, testing, money management or whatever is useless and clear contradiction.

That's why I asked steve to shut down his systems forum.

That's the ONLY message I bring to this forum. Nothing else. I hope I am clear this time, and not misconconstrued and misquoted again.

What's annoying is if you believe this then why are you sending ambiguous messages such that the game can be beaten outside of AP with yet another system?

Steve sends a clearer message. So yah, just let him send it. 

I'm not contradicting my own beliefs, as it appears you are.  I simply dont know if future spins can be exploited based on past spins.  If they can be, the only way you will find out in 2019 is to scientifically prove it with programming such as with Excel that will spit out stats and charts.  I have not tested every idea I've had about this so I still don't know. What's annoying is when people pretend to know what they don't . 

Meanwhile there isn't anything I would bet my own dollars on.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 11:22 PM 2019
Lucky and Still just agree to disagree

No need to spend your energy going at each other
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 10, 11:32 PM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 10, 11:01 PM 2019
I'm not contradicting my own beliefs, as it appears you are.  I simply DON'T KNOW if future spins can be exploited based on past spins.
Yes, you are blatantly contradicting yourself. Its normal and ok. :thumbsup:

Enough of personal level comments.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Still on Oct 11, 12:12 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 10, 11:32 PM 2019
Yes, you are blatantly contradicting yourself. Its normal and ok. :thumbsup:

Enough of personal level comments.

How so? Explain. Or, you can continue to pretend to know what you don't know.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 11, 08:55 AM 2019
I will try my hand at a fixed template later.  No idea if it would work bc I’m no Einstein.  But at least we can try.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 11, 09:39 AM 2019
Money - all is well, but you have not yet answered the “somehow” part. Let us go with the answers you have given.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 11:01 PM 2019You play in a way where either game wins you win and reset.
Let’s take an example. Assume you play on red even chances in one game and low high on other. How does it matter what you reset when. We established earlier in this thread that LLN spans across your resets.  One time game 1 wins other time game 2 wins, but in the end they both travel towards expectation. No?




Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 10, 11:01 PM 2019but the bankroll isn’t affected by the LLN cause the game isn’t long enough on your bets placed.
It doesn’t matter how long the game is. We established earlier that placed bets are what matters. I can’t consider your example as you can clearly see it doesn’t work. Your placed bets on double street will eventually meet its expectation whether you end small games before you reach 7 spins or not.

See Money, the problem is your examples are not backing your theory and your theory is contradicting from facts you established earlier. Care to give a more apt example? Else, we are going in circles.

So far we have established following:
Fact : Past spins cannot be used to predict next spin
Fact : there are ways to create dependent events in roulette.
Fact : LLN applies to all placed bets, it doesn’t matter what the bet selection process is and whether you place the bets all in one spin, or over a set of consecutive spins or over a period of your lifespan. 

Now what we are debating cannot shake these facts, unless we have a proof point.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ozon on Oct 11, 10:47 AM 2019
The most important question is whether the advantage will remain in longrun.
If it appears at the beginning of the game, it can be optimized with a positive MM.
But if it brings losses in longrun, I don't know if anything can save her.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 11, 01:03 PM 2019
Maybe later I will give more detail not sure if I’m ready for that..

But for now please re-read what I said.

This ec and lines is not going to work.  Just an example to show how two separate bets have different wins at different times and you can use that to win more frequently

So if for example your playing lines and always win before reaching spins 3-7 your beating the game cause your never reaching the spins that give you the most losses.

The idea is to create 1 bet that can take advantage of this instead of two separate bets.

And your wrong about the LLN affecting you. 

Let’s say line comes out and you play every repeat

142565

-1
-2
-3
-4
-5  win 6..... LLN affects you here but now another example with same set

-1
-2...win reset
-1....win reset
-1....
-2....
-3....win reset... LLN doesn’t affect you
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 11, 01:44 PM 2019
What is it that you're actually resetting?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 11, 03:32 PM 2019
Quote from: Priyanka on May 25, 12:36 PM 2016
That is my point. I see dependence and two sets of outcomes not equally likely. So the recipe for why the house edge will not catch is there. However how to put into a playable format is questionable.

Quote from: Priyanka on Apr 14, 03:38 PM 2016
I didnt say these are the two constants. I mentioned you can bring in 2 or 3 constants together. What those constants that has to be brought together is your work. May be these two will work, but i dont know.

You dont need to bring in more constants to gain edge. Even one constant is sufficient. To get a playeable method in a casino environment you might need to look at more opportunities.

Why do house edge catch up with you. Because of the law of large numbers. Simply put, lets say you constantly bet on red. If it is 10 spins, you might win, you might lose. If it 10,000 spins, then most of the times you will be losing. 100,000 spins, you will definitely be in negative as the variance decreases with a larger sample size. This is because the cycle limits of even chances is only 3 spins excluding zero. However imagine you have defined a cycle with a very large limit. Then you can play such that the law of large numbers will take longer to catch you, and hence you will always have variance to take advantage on.

Lets say you are tracking a biased wheel which is biased towards the 0 pocket. Odds of the game do not change. But the number of times you hit a winner will increase if you are not just targeting zero but pockets around 0 as well. Thats increasing the accuracy. If you follow a betting plan such that this increased hit rate is giving you a higher edge, why not.

Just more proof pri was a good teacher! 

Few things I’ve learned in life....

When your level of understanding something isn’t there yet.  You blame the person teaching and say they are talking BS.  But once you understand and the veil is removed you can see things more clear.

That’s why it’s good to always be teachable even if you think you know it all.

Also can’t be closed minded cause you block yourself from learning.

I don’t have anymore ideas to share or anymore details to share.

Anyone have any more facts/theories/myths/ideas?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 11, 04:03 PM 2019
Not sure how that's proof of anything but thanks for the life lesson.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Oct 11, 04:35 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 11, 03:32 PM 2019Anyone have any more facts/theories/myths/ideas?
Absolutely, the idea around the permutations!
(Not to be confused with combinations)
If we have say N numbers....
Or N letters.... Or N of anything for that matter
It comes down to how many arrangements can we give or be given!?

From here we can look at non random and combinations!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 11, 04:46 PM 2019
Quote from: mickavelli on Oct 11, 04:35 PM 2019
Absolutely, the idea around the permutations!
(Not to be confused with combinations)
If we have say N numbers....
Or N letters.... Or N of anything for that matter
It comes down to how many arrangements can we give or be given!?

From here we can look at non random and combinations...
Anyone else thinking along these lines??

No everyone else is thinking how they can get me to share more info.  They want a step by step explanation.

I have been open with the whole idea.  I can’t go into further detail.  The next step would be to give you a step by step detailed what to bet.( this message is not directly to you mickavelli)

This idea is one of my approaches.  Pri has her own, redd has his own, dyksexlic has his own.  All different using some of the same concepts
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Oct 11, 04:47 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 11, 03:32 PM 2019However imagine you have defined a cycle with a very large limit.
I never understood this. Cycles and their lengths are given. What does "define" a cycle means?
I have an idea, for example the EC cycle only ends if one of the positions repeated 3 times. This way I defined(?) an EC cycle that can be longer than 3 spins. But I'm not sure this is what it means.

More theories? Hm, legend has it that stitching together certain bets might impacts the odds of an event occurring. Therefore could potentially increase the accuracy of prediction. This is what I'm working on this evening. Probably for the hundredth time.  :twisted:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 11, 04:52 PM 2019
ati, stitching can produce new bets over multiple spins with new odds - but it still cannot escape break even because the risk/reward remains proportionate.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Oct 11, 05:03 PM 2019
Yeah that's the problem. But as it was explained, stitching is a very versatile concept, so there is always something new to try. For example stitching can be spin 1 on EC spin 2 on dozen, spin 3 on line. Or only 1 spin but betting a dozen and a street at the same time. Or stitch together the roulette stream outcomes with the position stream outcomes. Infinite possibilities, so I don't give up on it yet.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Oct 11, 05:09 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 11, 04:46 PM 2019
I have been open with the whole idea.
You have, appreciate that !
Back to re-reading the old topics I go..
Catch ya's
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Oct 11, 05:28 PM 2019
Going back to the topic of shortening the sessions. Did we ever define what a session is? To most people a session means you start playing roulette, and after 50, 100,  500 spins you finish, and end your playing session.
But in the discussions, a session has a different meaning. Your game play consist of short sessions. According to Pri, short does not mean time or number of spins. And in a winning method, every session should end in profit, or break even. In Pri's example of shortening it was tracking two repeats of a dozen instead of one. At the time no one questioned this idea, but it doesn't make much sense (to me at least). So I'm sure it should not be taken literally, there are other things that can happen and can repeat. I have some ideas.
I could not draw parallels between this and how Mel explained it, but I need more time to digest the info.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 11, 06:19 PM 2019
Quote from: ati on Oct 11, 05:03 PM 2019
Yeah that's the problem. But as it was explained, stitching is a very versatile concept, so there is always something new to try. For example stitching can be spin 1 on EC spin 2 on dozen, spin 3 on line. Or only 1 spin but betting a dozen and a street at the same time. Or stitch together the roulette stream outcomes with the position stream outcomes. Infinite possibilities, so I don't give up on it yet.
All those outcomes are independent though, so stitching will not escape break even:
--EC, Dozen Line - pick & mix
--Positions or result at the end of a cycle
--Hedging
So even with infinite possibilities the fact there's no prediction on what can come next means stitching cannot ever change the risk/reward proportion. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 11, 06:25 PM 2019
Quote from: ati on Oct 11, 05:28 PM 2019
Going back to the topic of shortening the sessions. Did we ever define what a session is? To most people a session means you start playing roulette, and after 50, 100,  500 spins you finish, and end your playing session.
But in the discussions, a session has a different meaning. Your game play consist of short sessions. According to Pri, short does not mean time or number of spins. And in a winning method, every session should end in profit, or break even. In Pri's example of shortening it was tracking two repeats of a dozen instead of one. At the time no one questioned this idea, but it doesn't make much sense (to me at least). So I'm sure it should not be taken literally, there are other things that can happen and can repeat. I have some ideas.
I could not draw parallels between this and how Mel explained it, but I need more time to digest the info.
This one is difficult. A session could end when we reach a new high. Since you mention double vs. single dozens, perhaps Priyanka's idea is based around avoiding the law of large number as per Mel?

My recent understanding is that Roulette is about progressing to new situations that are more favorable than the last, otherwise if the initial conditions are more favorable then we should end session and start afresh - and more favorable situations become available based on the inclusion of more streams.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 11, 08:09 PM 2019
EVERYONE believe that random is completely unpredictable. Wizardofodds is the bible, 1000000% sure. Suggesting otherwise is outright bullshit from a scammer wannabe or some personality issues.

Really ?

Read this and similar related articles.
Educate yourself pls.
link:s://:.quora.com/Chaos-Theory-What-is-the-difference-between-chaotic-behavior-and-random-behavior
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 11, 08:24 PM 2019
There is a HUGE difference between

Dependent betting decisions that the player impose upon his bets,

And,

Dependent outcome.

Don't confuse them to be the same.

Dependent betting decision is a decision that has no deterministic influence on future outcome.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: donik7777 on Oct 11, 09:02 PM 2019
Pri said ...

An example of what I mean by dependency is below. Again the key word is example. Taking the example of repeaters, if we run two streams one containing dozens and other containing lines, we can easily come to a conclusion that if repeater has not happened in dozen then it has not happened in lines as well. So that is a dependency as lines are a subset of dozens. Likewise there are other aspects we could use to create dependencies between two parallel streams.

And that...

While playing quads I have realised that 1-9, 10-18, 19-27, 28-36 forms quads in terms of spins. But the other way to make quads is by combining results of two spins. Like combining Two ECs like Low(1-18) and high numbers(19-36). The combinations are LL, HH, LH and HL. Here I could potentially have two streams one as a stream of quads with teh above combinations and other as a stream of ECs made of L and H. Because they are formed of same elements they are dependent. I am sure there is some playability I can figure out between these two streams and cycles, so working on it.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: trellw21 on Oct 11, 11:59 PM 2019
Can anyone thats experienced explain how the dynamic sequence is formed and used to create relation between random numbers it's really interesting I've read the original post here   link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17115.0    but still don't seem to understand how it works, probably because I learn best from examples. Any help would much be appreciated   :thumbsup: also thanks Money T for trying to shed some light on us
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 12, 01:35 AM 2019
Dependency (between spins) would imply predictability - but the dependency that Pri described was on the same spin (one group being a subset of the other) so cannot help us escape break even.

As far as I can tell, the most fundamental concept that Roulette might be beatable is not based on reading random - but based on the carpet layout and the fact we have generous table limits to work with:

35/37 numbers on one spin = 95%
Number cycle repeat within 13 spins = 95%

The first result is constant, but the second result is variable.

Since the number cycle can be won early (negative progression) or boosted along the way (positive progression) then that implies advantage compared to the first example of a single spin bet.

MLE being 95% more likely than a loss also suggests we should concentrate on short term wins albeit over many spins instead of wasting our time with LLEs that might not happen during our lifetime - resembling the avoidance of LLN perhaps.

The carpet layout, multiple streams and betting on behalf for a cheap investment is reminiscent of Quantum Mechanics and how everything is chaotic and random at a low level - but more orderly in terms of the birthday paradox and many people looking for the same date, etc.

We also have fractals and manipulating variance - but I'm still not clear how that can help us - but there must be some way of tapping into it (or at least understanding it better).

Lastly, if we carry over all unique numbers to the next number cycle then the stats change - indicating that a number cycle is not quite the artificial construct I thought it was in terms of playing any 13 spins with accumulating number bets (based on the example above).

All the above concepts are sound facts - contrary to the gibberish that often gets posted - so if we want to ascertain whether Roulette is beatable then we should concentrate exclusively on the above and ignore anything too vague, confusing or open to too much interpretation.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 03:14 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 11, 08:09 PM 2019EVERYONE believe that random is completely unpredictable. Wizardofodds is the bible, 1000000% sure. Suggesting otherwise is outright bullshit from a scammer wannabe or some personality issues.

Really ?

Read this and similar related articles.
Educate yourself pls.

Lucky, I myself have said that random is not unpredictable in the sense that the first poster is saying in the quora thread.

QuoteTo make this more intuitive, imagine trying to find a drunkard. He left the bar at midnight and you’re looking for him an hour later. Since he's drunk, he’s walking aimlessly and you won't be able to know exactly where he is. However, knowing that he walks at a pace of one step a second, and assuming each step is taken in a new, completely random, direction, you know that after one hour he can't be much farther than 60 steps (maybe a hundred feet) away from where he left.

In terms of roulette, that's like predicting that after a 100 spins there will be about 50 reds, but what possible use is knowing that? If that kind of predictability gave even a tiny advantage casinos wouldn't have lasted long.

And even if you could make bets directly on these predictable outcomes, the casinos would see to it that there was no advantage, by adjusting the payouts.

We can only make one bet at a time, and always only on the next spin. We can't bet on an aggregate result in advance. The fact that you keep hinting that somehow roulette is predictable in a way we can take advantage of makes me think you either don't understand the important differences, or you're just stringing us all along for your amusement.

Turbo is the same. He keeps saying everyone is fixated on the next spin and we should look at sequences of spins. But a sequence of spins is made up of single spins, and if you can't get an advantage on one spin then you won't get an advantage on a sequence; a sequence doesn't have some magical properties which aren't present in a single spin.

Chaos is different because it's deterministic, so if you know the initial conditions there is the potential for prediction. That's how VB works, but it doesn't work because you know the past spins (which can't predict anything) but because you know the initial conditions.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 03:20 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 03:14 AM 2019
... fixated on the next spin and we should look at sequences of spins. But a sequence of spins is made up of single spins, and if you can't get an advantage on one spin then you won't get an advantage on a sequence; a sequence doesn't have some magical properties which aren't present in a single spin.
No magic. You wrote you enjoy analysing. No hints - this is the area of analysis if you ever going to find something.

Don't go coding your excel sheet like coder Still, figure out in your head why must there be something there first.


If YOU find nothing, there's nothing else possible.
It's that simple.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 03:31 AM 2019
There's nothing to find. You haven't found anything either, although you may think you have, just like Turbo.

It's all based on a misunderstanding of probability. It's that simple.  ;)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 03:36 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 03:31 AM 2019
There's nothing to find.

Then you are grossly misleading members with your software that makes nonsensical counts. And your analysing is another contradiction. When, according to you, there's nothing to find.

Not personal attack, just pointing the contradiction.

link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=26336.0

You haven't found anything either, although you may think you have, just like Turbo.

I am ok with your opinion. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 03:50 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 03:36 AM 2019Then you are grossly misleading members with your software that makes nonsensical counts. And your analysing is another contradiction. When, according to you, there's nothing to find.

Nope. Because I say on my website that such software is for 'entertainment purposes only'. I like to analyze systems because I like math and statistics, not because I'm looking for any holy grail, which doesn't exist. People do all kinds of things which are apparently 'useless', just because they enjoying doing them.

You're the one who is misleading people and being contradictory, because you have admitted there is no dependence between spins but at the same time like to hint that there is.

Of all branches of mathematics, probability causes more confusion and misunderstanding than any other. Some really smart people have made really terrible mistakes when using it.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 03:59 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 03:20 AM 2019Don't go coding your excel sheet like coder Still, figure out in your head why must there be something there first.

Yes you can figure something out in your head, but you need to test the idea otherwise how do you know if it has any merit? I think this is where Turbo and others go wrong. They make assumptions but because they don't know how to properly test them or even understand what it is that they should be testing, the assumptions are never tested. They then assume that because their ideas seem to 'work', the assumptions must be true.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 04:03 AM 2019
BTW, this is what I say on the 'About' page on my web site:

QuoteThere have probably been more gambling systems created for Roulette than any other casino game because of the variety and type of bets you can make. But can any of these systems actually work? The mathematics says no, but I believe that it's possible to swing the edge in your favor if you stick to real wheels (avoid computer generated spins) and pay attention to factors which correlate with where the ball eventually ends up (such as wheel speed, ball type, direction of spin, degree of "scatter", etc).

I should mention that not all "system" software available on the site implements systems of this kind. In fact, the vast majority of systems created by enthusiasts are based on staking schemes, "hot" or "cold" numbers, patterns, etc. Any software which is based on this type of system should be regarded as "for entertainment purposes only", because although they can be fun to play, the mathematical expectation for these systems is that they will lose in the long run.

I'm not misleading anyone.   ;)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 04:23 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 03:50 AM 2019
Nope. Because I say on my website that such software is for 'entertainment purposes only'. I like to analyze systems because I like math and statistics, not because I'm looking for any holy grail, which doesn't exist. People do all kinds of things which are apparently 'useless', just because they enjoying doing them.
100% loser of some fancy code software is "for entertainment purpose only". Nice qualifying statement. Don't forget to bold the 100% loser no different from any random betselection to highlight the loser point in case it's misread. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 04:29 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 03:59 AM 2019I think this is where Turbo and others go wrong. They make assumptions but because they don't know how to properly test them or even understand what it is that they should be testing, the assumptions are never tested.
I can't speak for Turbo.

I accept your opinion. Told you I'm ok with that in above post. :thumbsup:

Can we move on now ?

Or the only way for you to move on is for me to stop posting, so your opinion is heard ?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 04:29 AM 2019
No matter how many times you tell people this, they never seem to get it.

link:s://medium.com/i-math/that-common-misconception-about-probabilities-3c507b892371

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 04:32 AM 2019
 
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 04:29 AM 2019I accept your opinion. Told you I'm ok with that in above post.

But you still believe there is a dependency between spins.  ::)

Scammers love guys like you and Turbo who perpetuate the myth and never back down.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 04:34 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 04:32 AM 2019
Scammers love guys like you and Turbo who perpetuate the myth and never back down.
Here we go...... Scammers :thumbsup:

Emmm......MoneyT is a scammer too. :xd:
Dyslexic, RRBB, Priyanka, blueprint......who else in the scammer list ? :question:

Joe, end of conversation.
I have written everything there is to write. I was waiting for your response.
And you have.

People can read our posts, make their own decision. My purpose returning to this forum is complete. See ya
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 04:39 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 04:29 AM 2019Can we move on now ?

Move on to what? The discussions always come back to the same things. Ever wondered why that is?  ;D

But feel free, continue with your cryptic hints if you like.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 04:44 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 04:39 AM 2019
Move on to what? The discussions always come back to the same things. Ever wondered why that is?  ;D

But feel free, continue with your cryptic hints if you like.  :thumbsup:
For the benefit of the readers, make a clear statement here that no systems bet has a positive edge. Your post from a math major graduate might convince those reading.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 04:44 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 04:34 AM 2019Emmm......MoneyT is a scammer too. :xd:
Dyslexic, RRBB, Priyanka, blueprint......who else in the scammer list ?

I didn't say any of those people were scammers, although they may be for all I know. But I do know that they spread misinformation ('fake news') about systems, and that gives more power to the real scammers who depend on people's ignorance to make sales. The more people that believe systems can work, the better the scammers will do. Simple as that.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 04:52 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 04:44 AM 2019
I didn't say any of those people were scammers, although they may be for all I know. But I do know that they spread misinformation ('fake news') about systems, and that gives more power to the real scammers who depend on people's ignorance to make sales. The more people that believe systems can work, the better the scammers will do. Simple as that.
Tbf, what you wrote makes sense.

But if you read this thread and forum there are tons of people who believe there is some hidden secret in roulette spins.

Some misguided arsehole with a personality disorder or scamming motive can easily string these ignorant ppl along with false claims. These ppl are desperate who bite anything that's fancy looking like codes, programs, and MM.
And on this thread, fancy betting template, learnt that from Tinsoldiers.:thumbsup:

Time to go offline. :wink:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 12, 05:25 AM 2019
A warning from time to time is ok as there are lots of scammers around and some seem to be really dangerous.
A warning every day in the most active thread seems to be too much, you get in danger of a mental disorder as can be seen clearly (of course only) on other boards.
Higher self esteem by degrading others.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 12, 05:27 AM 2019
Thanks to luckyfella and Jo for their links.
They are really good.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:28 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 03:59 AM 2019They make assumptions but because they don't know how to properly test them or even understand what it is that they should be testing, the assumptions are never tested. They then assume that because their ideas seem to 'work', the assumptions must be true.

Some ideas you don’t even need to assume.  You can look at the fact and it can be clear as day.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:31 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 04:44 AM 2019
I didn't say any of those people were scammers, although they may be for all I know.

Everyone can send me money

PayPal, cashapp, Venmo, deposit into my account. I will be adding bitcoin soon

No checks please   >:D

😂
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 12, 07:35 AM 2019
Summary so far for anyone following:

Lots of theories.
Lots of myths.
Few facts.
0 new ideas.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:37 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 03:14 AM 2019
keeps saying everyone is fixated on the next spin and we should look at sequences of spins. But a sequence of spins is made up of single spins, and if you can't get an advantage on one spin then you won't get an advantage on a sequence; a sequence doesn't have some magical properties which aren't present in a single spin.

You understand apples but not oranges.

Stick with apples my friend.  Oranges aren’t for you 🍎🍊

Everyone else oranges aren’t so bad😋
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:39 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 12, 07:35 AM 2019
Summary so far for anyone following:

Lots of theories.
Lots of myths.
Few facts.
0 new ideas.

Yes by far my favorite post.  Nothing to see here...

Let’s move along 😋🍊
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 12, 07:48 AM 2019
We all know why you’re posting.

My advice - use this time to play instead of posting.

I know you won’t listen though. So much for the open mind life lessons.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:53 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 12, 07:48 AM 2019
We all know why you’re posting.

My advice - use this time to play instead of posting.

I know you won’t listen though. So much for the open mind life lessons.

These silly theories/facts/ideas have come to an end. Thank you all for participating.  You can continue without me. Moving forward no more post from me on what has been spoken of in this or anything I have posted in the past.

I’m just your regular roulette forum poster playing martingale on FTL 😆
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 12, 08:10 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:53 AM 2019I’m just your regular roulette forum poster playing martingale on FTL 😆

Finally some facts!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 08:19 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 12, 08:10 AM 2019
Finally some facts!


How dumb of me to think I can fool you?!
🤦‍â™,️😩
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 08:55 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:28 AM 2019Some ideas you don’t even need to assume.  You can look at the fact and it can be clear as day.

You would think that about independence of spins, wouldn't you? It's so obvious it hardly needs pointing out, and yet most systems are predicated on its opposite.  :o
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 08:58 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 12, 07:35 AM 20190 new ideas

There is plenty of scope for new ideas, but when they're built on really dumb ideas, they have no value.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: redhot on Oct 12, 09:09 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 12, 07:48 AM 2019
We all know why you’re posting.

Why would that be?  :question:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 09:20 AM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 12, 09:09 AM 2019
Why would that be?  :question:

Yes I would love to hear the answer to that 👂
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 09:22 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 08:58 AM 2019
There is plenty of scope for new ideas, but when they're built on really dumb ideas, they have no value.

You know it all and nothing new to learn.  I wish I was as smart as you 🍎🍊
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 12, 09:36 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 08:55 AM 2019You would think that about independence of spins, wouldn't you? It's so obvious it hardly needs pointing out, and yet most systems are predicated on its opposite. 
I think everyone who is posting knows about the independence of spins. It will continue to be a good discussion if we discuss beyond working out a winning method and focus on the basics and the facts and assumptions. Guess it’s not going to happen, as every thread started goes to someone wanting to establish as a messiah. 

Money has been giving contradicting views about the facts that he has established earlier and can’t provide an example to substantiate what he is thinking. Example he has provided even the lAst one on the repeaters and stopping ahead, clearly contradicts the LLN example that he provided earlier by logging bets under different columns. 

Joe regarding the links you gave it doesn’t say anything about the two dependence examples that were discussed. What’s your opinion on those examples.

Similarly, luckyfella, you stated something and stopped and jumped on to something else.  You care to finish your sentence which you ended by saying “until”? And your opinion on fancy betting template - LOL, I was suggesting an alternative to look at during the brainstorming, that doesn’t mean am vouchcing for one.

Once again, it was an interesting discussion - but guess there was no common intention - the goals for everyone participating was different. It would still be good if we leave out the winning method part and discuss the math behind it.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 10:37 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 09:22 AM 2019You know it all and nothing new to learn.  I wish I was as smart as you 🍎🍊

I may not be able to tell the difference between apples and oranges, but I know a lemon when I see one.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 12, 10:37 AM 2019
P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat) >P(next dozen=previous defining dozen)

Fact: the condition is NOT A NUMBER.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 10:41 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 12, 09:36 AM 2019Joe regarding the links you gave it doesn’t say anything about the two dependence examples that were discussed. What’s your opinion on those examples.

Which examples were those? I thought we had already discussed the two kinds of dependencies; either a dependency between spins (not possible) or dependency between two events in the same spin (possible but of no value).
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 10:45 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 12, 10:37 AM 2019P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat) >P(next dozen=previous defining dozen)

P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat)  = P(next dozen=previous defining dozen) = 12/37  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 12, 10:54 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 10:45 AM 2019
P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat)  = P(next dozen=previous defining dozen) = 12/37  :thumbsup:

Nope.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 11:15 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 12, 10:54 AM 2019Nope.

Yep.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 12, 12:53 PM 2019
If P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat) isn't 12/37, then what is it? and more to the point, why?  ???
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 01:06 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 12, 09:36 AM 2019
Similarly, luckyfella, you stated something and stopped and jumped on to something else.  You care to finish your sentence which you ended by saying “until”?
This is purely my opinion and for those readers interested.

I understand this theoretical infinite entropy of randomness.

However, I am of the OPINION that the generation of outcomes from dealer spinning a ball on a wheel is not exactly true random.

It's on this basis that I view outcomes as some ingredients of random and chaos mixed into one. As such, when we isolate input conditions, for the short term, the probability numbers are fairly stable to offer prediction quality and accuracy good enough to give a net positive edge over the extra pocket and unfair payout.

This is my explanation and how it helped narrow my search. And that's about how much I'm willing to post on forum.

This excerpt from the link I posted earlier best describe my opinion. Ofc I may be wrong. All I can say is there is enough empirical evidence to support my OPINION. I see no evidence to give me reason to change my opinion.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Oct 12, 02:05 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 12:53 PM 2019
If P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat) isn't 12/37, then what is it? and more to the point, why?  ???
Check the attachment in this post. link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15938.msg155266#msg155266

This is just another fact, and it won't turn dozen cycles into a winning game. Another fact is that the next dozen is always 1/3, no one ever said you can change that, and that you need to win on the next spin. Priyanka tried to emphasize this many times. It's not possible to increase the odds of the next spin, the target should always be the predictability of the next x number of outcomes.
I don't know how to increase the predictability, but I believe that it can be done. Just look at how many concepts were shared in the past 4 years that no one thought of before, and imagine how many other things could be out there that have never been shared. The forum has evolved a lot in the past few years. I remember when 9 out of 10 new threads were about finding triggers and suitable progressions. Those kind of threads don't seem to attract many views and replies nowadays.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 12, 02:40 PM 2019
Quote from: ati on Oct 12, 02:05 PM 2019
Check the attachment in this post. link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15938.msg155266#msg155266

This is just another fact, and it won't turn dozen cycles into a winning game. Another fact is that the next dozen is always 1/3, no one ever said you can change that, and that you need to win on the next spin. Priyanka tried to emphasize this many times. It's not possible to increase the odds of the next spin, the target should always be the predictability of the next x number of outcomes.
I don't know how to increase the predictability, but I believe that it can be done. Just look at how many concepts were shared in the past 4 years that no one thought of before, and imagine how many other things could be out there that have never been shared. The forum has evolved a lot in the past few years. I remember when 9 out of 10 new threads were about finding triggers and suitable progressions. Those kind of threads don't seem to attract many views and replies nowadays.

I totally agree with you Ati. We have new ways to think about wether they lead to an advantage or not.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 03:00 PM 2019
Ati and Blood Angel thanks for sharing more facts
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 03:05 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 12, 09:36 AM 2019
Money has been giving contradicting views about the facts that he has established earlier and can’t provide an example to substantiate what he is thinking.

A piece of a puzzle might look contradicting until you have the whole picture!

Also I provided exactly what I was thinking.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Roulettebeater on Oct 12, 04:19 PM 2019
(link:s://:.alamy.com/stock-photo-group-of-young-rich-people-is-playing-poker-in-the-casino-two-men-175758978.html)
Group of young rich people is playing poker in the casino. Two men in business suits and a young woman in a black dress. Smoke. Casino. Poker - Image ID: M5XEAA


Yes you can beat the casino!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 12, 05:27 PM 2019
Quote from: ati on Oct 12, 02:05 PM 2019
Check the attachment in this post. link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15938.msg155266#msg155266

This is just another fact, and it won't turn dozen cycles into a winning game. Another fact is that the next dozen is always 1/3, no one ever said you can change that, and that you need to win on the next spin. Priyanka tried to emphasize this many times. It's not possible to increase the odds of the next spin, the target should always be the predictability of the next x number of outcomes.
I don't know how to increase the predictability, but I believe that it can be done. Just look at how many concepts were shared in the past 4 years that no one thought of before, and imagine how many other things could be out there that have never been shared. The forum has evolved a lot in the past few years. I remember when 9 out of 10 new threads were about finding triggers and suitable progressions. Those kind of threads don't seem to attract many views and replies nowadays.
"Predictability" continues to be used in a contradictory way. We cannot predict the next spin, cycle, X cycles nor X spins - not in terms of changing the risk/reward constant ratio anyway - so we can never escape break even.

All the concepts were from mathematicians describing combinatorics - nothing to do with Roulette, probabilities and escaping break even.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Oct 12, 06:37 PM 2019
I agree we can't. But what if someone can?
I know too well the feeling of having a great idea, writing the code, then seeing a break even result. I often wished my tests would lose, so I would have a chance of looking into the opposite bet.
QuoteThe common non-random theory that people use without even knowing non-random is "repeaters". That could be a good starting point. Starting from knowing when a repeat happens, then moving on to where it happens and how it happens - there is so much undiscovered.
Quotenon random is a good starting point to be able to play. But however it doesn't work straight out of the box due to the nature of the way the roulette game is constructed. It is yet to be seen how the deadlock can be handled. Theoretically, a parallel game which benefits from the deadlock situation could be the answer. But practically am yet to see such a parallel game.
You know Priyanka, this pretty much translates to "yes, there is a parallel game that can make your break even game a winner"
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 12, 10:17 PM 2019
I notice this fixation on probability of an event on this thread.

To calculate the probability of a particular event is not difficult.

What is important to know is this Gaussian probability distribution won't help improve the accuracy of your bets.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 13, 12:27 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 12, 10:37 AM 2019P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat) >P(next dozen=previous defining dozen)

Fact: the condition is NOT A NUMBER.


Test: chain with 100.000 Dtz:  frequencies
(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat):      {{False, 31850}, {True, 21057}}
(next dozen=previous defining dozen)                :      {{False, 19543}, {True, 33365}}

=>  P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat) <P(next dozen=previous defining dozen)   :question:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 13, 12:29 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 10:17 PM 2019What is important to know is this Gaussian probability distribution won't help improve the accuracy of your bets.

The exact distribution for roulette is the binomial probability  distribution.

Gaussian probability distribution can be used as approximation under certain conditions (variance >= 9)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 13, 12:34 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 13, 12:29 AM 2019

The exact distribution for roulette is the binomial probability  distribution.

Gaussian probability distribution can be used as approximation under certain conditions (variance >= 9)
Ok. I stand corrected, thanks :thumbsup:

I just wanted to say the probability by itself won't help to improve accuracy of the bet.

The data count also won't help to improve accuracy of the bet.

There is this belief that there is some trend or pattern therein that can help. This is not true.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 13, 01:18 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 13, 12:34 AM 2019the probability by itself won't help to improve accuracy of the bet.

The data count also won't help to improve accuracy of the bet.

There is this belief that there is some trend or pattern therein that can help. This is not true.

Everything about this topic is already said, and now so God will by everybody.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 13, 05:22 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 13, 12:34 AM 2019The data count also won't help to improve accuracy of the bet.
For the facts:
Of course luckyfella is totally right with this statement.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 06:42 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 13, 05:22 AM 2019Of course luckyfella is totally right with this statement.
ofcourse he is.

Quote from: Herby on Oct 13, 12:27 AM 2019
Test: chain with 100.000 Dtz:  frequencies
(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat):      {{False, 31850}, {True, 21057}}
(next dozen=previous defining dozen)                :      {{False, 19543}, {True, 33365}}

=>  P(next dozen=previous defining dozen | repeat) <P(next dozen=previous defining dozen)   
While I understand this in no way can create a positive edge, there seem to be an error (possible I may be wrong) in your calculations. Just need a confirmation on the following: examples spins of dozens 3213323.  For your formula if I break down, this becomes 321  3  32  3.   So for the LHS true 3 false 0. RHS true 3 false 3.  Is that the right interpretation?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 13, 08:14 AM 2019
 :question:
my post was more a question
my possible false interpretation, blueprint is talking of dtz cycles:

P(next dozen=previous defining dozen  | repeat) >P(next dozen=previous defining dozen)
my interpretation:
(repeating dozen= defining dozen | last repeating dozen=last but one defining dozen)

|  id usually followed by a condition   

I take a part of your dtz: 321  3  3
you have the cycles: {3,2,1, 3}  {3,3}
{3,2,1, 3}:  the condition: "last repeating dozen=last but one defining dozen" is fullfilled
{3,3} repeating dozen= defining dozen is fullfilled: gives in my results "TRUE"

blueprint will tell us the right interpretation  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 13, 08:50 AM 2019
Quote from: ati on Oct 12, 06:37 PM 2019
I agree we can't. But what if someone can?
I know too well the feeling of having a great idea, writing the code, then seeing a break even result. I often wished my tests would lose, so I would have a chance of looking into the opposite bet.You know Priyanka, this pretty much translates to "yes, there is a parallel game that can make your break even game a winner"
ati, if the "normal" bet has no positive or negative edge then it follows that the "opposite" bet is no different.

Deadlocks occur more on EC and Dozen cycles - but are non-existent for number cycles - so it's unlikely they could be the key.

Therefore, although there's certainly some interesting mathematical concepts discussed by Priyanka, they appear like a foreign language to Roulette since they are from a different discipline; for example, Priyanka and rrbb never once mentioned risk vs. reward, and instead spoke (naively) about "more wins than losses". They avoided talking about the obvious as much as possible - describing Roulette as number combinations devoid of probabilities.

Where does the repeat occur and how does the repeat occur? Let's discuss this in a new topic...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 09:09 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 13, 08:50 AM 2019

Where does the repeat occur and how does the repeat occur? Let's discuss this in a new topic...

🙋‍â™,️ I think I know this one pick me 😂

Where... recent numbers
How... birthday paradox

🤔
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 13, 10:16 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 09:09 AM 2019
🙋‍â™,️ I think I know this one pick me 😂

Where... recent numbers
How... birthday paradox

🤔

As per “low” on Redds dynamic stream?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 10:20 AM 2019
Quote from: Blood Angel on Oct 13, 10:16 AM 2019
As per “low” on Redds dynamic stream?

No, it’s a fact.

Redd used the dynamic stream to show you the visual.  If redd dynamic stream was never presented.  The fact is still repeats come from last 18 numbers.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 13, 10:23 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 10:20 AM 2019
No, it’s a fact.

Redd used the dynamic stream to show you the visual.  If redd dynamic stream was never presented.  The fact is still repeats come from last 18 numbers.

Yep, kind of what I was trying to say..
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 10:30 AM 2019
Forget about winning!  Forget about odds!  Forget about finding a bet!  Just look at the FACT.

Spins.....LH....Lines
16..........L.......3
36..........H......6
7............L.......2â€"â€"L Repeat
23..........H......4
4............L.......1â€"â€"L Repeat
28..........H.......5
9............L........2â€"â€"L Repeat/2 Repeat
17..........L........3â€"â€"L Repeat
17.........L.........3 â€"â€"L Repeat/3 Repeat
12.........L.........2 â€"â€"L Repeat
10.........L.........2 â€"â€"L Repeat/2 Repeat
.........LLN......LLN......No LLN

If you go down LH column the LLN affects you.

If you go down the Lines column the LLN affects you.

Now let’s say you played only lines but you were using the combined idea... the LLN will not affect you because there is a limit based on the EC that only takes 3 spins.

Back to the LLN argument statements contradictions... Whatever  you want to call it...

I made my point.  I provided the FACT.  Now how to use this idea and apply it that’s a different story. Is there a way to apply this?  Idk that part is for you to find out...

But the fact is LLN will not affect you because the spins are not long enough.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 10:31 AM 2019
Quote from: Blood Angel on Oct 13, 10:23 AM 2019
Yep, kind of what I was trying to say..

Sorry, I understood different.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 13, 11:57 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 10:31 AM 2019
Sorry, I understood different.

No worries, I didn’t word it very well. Thanks for all the ideas.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Oct 13, 12:36 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 09:09 AM 2019
🙋‍â™,️ I think I know this one pick me 😂

Where... recent numbers
How... birthday paradox

🤔
But aren't those are the same things? I mean the repeats on recent numbers is the result of the birthday paradox.
So I'm not sure about the answer on "how"
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 12:50 PM 2019
Quote from: ati on Oct 13, 12:36 PM 2019
But aren't those are the same things? I mean the repeats on recent numbers is the result of the birthday paradox.
So I'm not sure about the answer on "how"

I don’t know how to explain the difference without contradicting myself and getting attacked for it 😅

Let me try...

Let’s say you have 24 straights that came out.  The repeat will be in the last 18 which are the more recent 19-24 are still part of the birthday paradox but aren’t considered recent anymore.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 13, 12:55 PM 2019
A graphic of the repeats of the straights:
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=17018.0;attach=23164 (link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=17018.0;attach=23164)
Probabilites in %
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 13, 02:19 PM 2019
There's something quite interesting about the number repeat that I have yet to follow up on:

The number repeat always closes by CL25 as per the graph that Herby posted.

However, we can still encounter 36 unique numbers somewhere within 1 million spins - but such events never occur/coincide when tracking all number cycles continuously with the "Principle A" re-tracking mechanism.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 13, 02:29 PM 2019
Quote from: Herby on May 15, 02:34 AM 2016Probability of the first repeat of any shown number (in %)

{{1,2.7027},{2,5.25931},{3,7.46254},{4,9.14329},
{5,10.1935},{6,10.5792},{7,10.341},{8,9.58236},
{9,8.44931},{10,7.10453},{11,5.70282},{12,4.3717},

More results in the link above ...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 03:45 PM 2019
I bring to you more entertainment in the world of ideas 😂

So would the lines be worth playing with a progresión if you always get a win in a short time frame?

Or

would you just play the opposite for guaranteed profit?

Im a do 100 spins with only the bet results.  Let’s get to the bottom of this 🕵️‍â™,️
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 05:00 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 03:45 PM 2019
I bring to you more entertainment in the world of ideas 😂

So would the lines be worth playing with a progresión if you always get a win in a short time frame?

Or

would you just play the opposite for guaranteed profit?

Im a do 100 spins with only the bet results.  Let’s get to the bottom of this 🕵️‍â™,️

I did 94 spins manually to avoid mistakes.  This is real results not created to make a point!

First 3 spins NB(no bet) then waited 3 spins cause no bet was possible. Played double street so each win is 6.  Any negative in first column is how many double streets were covered.

NB   
NB   
NB   
NB   
NB   
NB   
-1   
-1   
NB   
NB   
-1   
-1   
-1   
NB   
-1   
-2   6 ..... 7 spin bet short progression  ---- opposite bet ends at +2
NB   
-2   
-2   
-2   6 ..... 3 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +0
-1   
-1   
NB   
-1   
NB   
-1   
-1   
-2   
NB   
-3   6 ..... 7 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +4
-1   
-2   
NB   
NB   
-1   
-2   
-2   
-2   6 ..... 6 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +4
NB   
-1   
-2   
-1   
-1   
NB   
-1   
-1   
-1   
-2   6 ..... 8 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +4
NB   
-1   
-2   
-1   
-1   
-1   6 ..... 5 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +0
-1   
-1   
-2   
-1   
-1   
-1   6 ..... 6 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +1
-2   
-1   
-3   
-1   
-1   
-2   
-1   
-4   6 ..... 8 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +9
-2   
NB   
-2   
-2   
NB   
-2   6 ..... 4 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +2
-1   
-2   
-1   
-1   
-2   6 ..... 5 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +1
-2   6 ..... 1 spin bet no progression   ---- opposite bet ends at -4
NB   
NB   
-2   
NB   
-1   
NB   
-1   
NB   
-1   
NB   
-1   
-1   
-2   6 ..... 7 spin bet short progression ---- opposite bet ends at +3

Opposite bet ends at +26

Progression depends on what ever is used.  But any progression is good well except martingale.  I like ending on +1 so so if all my combined losses will end on a positive with 6, i continue.  if not then i go 2 units(12) on each bet then 3(18), etc.

If you enjoy progressions and like taking risk for better reward its not so bad to come up with 7 step-8 step progression

Back to the original questions...

My opinion: what is better for you might be to safe for someone else.  It all comes down to preference
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 13, 05:41 PM 2019
I can't really comment on MoneyT's latest example because in all my testing "normal" and "opposite" bets always result in break even, so I couldn't possibly fathom his partial test results let alone hypothesis.

Regarding my earlier observation I thought I would give an actual example - nothing hidden here:

Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 13, 02:19 PM 2019
There's something quite interesting about the number repeat that I have yet to follow up on:

The number repeat always closes by CL25 as per the graph that Herby posted.

However, we can still encounter 36 unique numbers somewhere within 1 million spins - but such events never occur/coincide when tracking all number cycles continuously with the "Principle A" re-tracking mechanism.

(link:s://i.postimg.cc/XvBV7dmy/principle.png)

Under standard number repeats I encountered CL10,3,5 and finally 15.
However, under principle C number repeats I countered 2 x CL12s prior to the 15.

Therefore, CL25 is the maximum for normal number repeats - but if we carry over all uniques after every cycle (principle C) then we can encounter cycle lengths higher than CL25!

This could mean something along the lines of: cycle length+position of the current cycle is dependent on the order+position of the previous cycle.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: donik7777 on Oct 13, 05:53 PM 2019
Falkor i think your Principle C was described by RRBB he also using unique from previous cycle

You created a half (two unique quads) with a really interesting feature: on a repeat of the quads, the repeat will almost always be in the "dynamic half" that you defined in this way.


I was referring to is to determine the SECOND term in a cycle of quads (beginning at a repeat, ending before a repeat), so a the second term you would bet 2 quads



Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 05:54 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 05:00 PM 2019Back to the original questions...
One small question, before I respond to the previous posts. Can you pls identify all the zeroes in this spin set if you can pls. Thanks.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 05:55 PM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 13, 05:41 PM 2019
I can't really comment on MoneyT's latest example because in all my testing "normal" and "opposite" bets always result in break even, so I couldn't possibly fathom his partial test results let alone hypothesis.
Because looking all the stats, knowing the information and reciting it like a random expert can only get you so far.

Once you understand what the information means and use your brain you can start finding ways to use it.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: donik7777 on Oct 13, 06:00 PM 2019
quads cycle like that

1242
2...now we can bet for quad 4 from previous cycle and defining 2 so we actually bet for quads falling for LOW EC
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 06:01 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 05:54 PM 2019
One small question, before I respond to the previous posts. Can you pls identify all the zeroes in this spin set if you can pls. Thanks.

I used randbetween(1,36) to get results and then converted to lines.  No zero used.

3-10 zeros in the 94 spins still wouldn’t make much difference on the results.

People always find a way to focus on the wrong things.

I already shared ideas on zero in my old posts and you also can take the loss and continue. Zero isn’t your biggest enemy!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 13, 06:04 PM 2019
Here's another example after 100K spins - we have 4 x CL23s in the C column - and only max 21 in the A column:

(link:s://i.postimg.cc/6QCC42Gy/pr.png)

I would need to run it to 1 mil to go beyond CL25.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 07:51 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:53 AM 2019
Thank you all for participating.  You can continue without me.
I am not sure how many times you have quit, but yet you come back. Personal attacks on you - you cry, yet you do the same to Falkor in the other post. This is how most of these topics are filled with dissension, Just saying.

Once I again I say this, I have nothing personal against you or your methods. I am just here to have interesting conversations with individuals on themes that am interested in and the non-randomness and chaos theory are two of them. I am very glad that you started this topic, even though few posts in here are didactic. I am here to understand things better and by the looks of you coming back again after quitting, I think you are keen to pass on what you have learnt. My request is to keep patience while some fervent discussions are going on here, as we are dealing with a opinionated audience. Now that we have that out of the way, few notes from my side for the pad.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 10:30 AM 2019
If you go down LH column the LLN affects you.
If you go down the Lines column the LLN affects you.
Now let’s say you played only lines but you were using the combined idea... the LLN will not affect you because there is a limit based on the EC that only takes 3 spins.
But the fact is LLN will not affect you because the spins are not long enough.
I am referring to the example cited here. I would like to do a simple exercise, that was earlier mentioned in this post. In this example you are betting on lines. There are six natural lines that are possible. You write down those in 6 columns. You are playing a number of sessions and each session is a self imposed limit of 3 spins. For some sessions you are placing bets, some sessions you are not placing bets, or may be every session you are placing bets - I do not know as you have not mentioned your betting decisions. However, I ask you to write down the bet numbers against every line bet that you have made in a session in one row. You keep playing these sessions upto infinite sessions. So on rows you are having sessions and on columns you are having win losses on bets made on each natural line.

If I go by your claims in this example - you are saying my sessions are limited by the EC, so my individual rows are never in the negative. But your columns are the natural line bets and they are subject to LLN as you play many times your winning sessions. So the sum of rows are positive while the sum of the columns are negative expectation. See the contradiction?

Again, I am just stating what is mathematically a fact. This whole exercise will not hold good only if LLN is not applicable on the columns as well, whereas we all know that LLN is a proven fact in a fixed betting position with enough number of spins.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 06:01 PM 2019
I used randbetween(1,36) to get results and then converted to lines.  No zero used.
3-10 zeros in the 94 spins still wouldn’t make much difference on the results.
People always find a way to focus on the wrong things.
I already shared ideas on zero in my old posts and you also can take the loss and continue. Zero isn’t your biggest enemy!
I agree with you that zero is not the biggest enemy. I reiterate, I AGREE WITH YOU that zero isnt the biggest enemy in roulette. However you were using this example to make a point and in this example zero will impact the opposite bets. I am being led to believe that Falkor is correct in saying that what doesnt work forward doesnt work backward, and what works forward will work backward - And zero makes it worse when you do the opposite bets. Your experience might be different, but lets not side track the conversation and get back to LLN that we were discussing. I like getting clarity on one point before moving to other.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 12:50 PM 2019Let’s say you have 24 straights that came out. The repeat will be in the last 18 which are the more recent 19-24 are still part of the birthday paradox but aren’t considered recent anymore.
No one is trying to attack you here my friend. We dont have any personal agenda against you as you might assume :) We are all having a better conversation than those climate junkies. Are you intending to say repeat will be in the last 18? Or are you saying it will be nearly always in the last 18. Just thought of clarifying, as I want to make sure it isnt a oversight. Here again i think ati is right in saying both are the same.

Quote from: Herby on Oct 13, 08:14 AM 2019blueprint will tell us the right interpretation
Please blueprint help us with teh right interpretation, as I see a point in what you are saying and Joe might be missing the point - Herby could kindly help us with his empirical results with the right interpretation.

Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 10:41 AM 2019Which examples were those? I thought we had already discussed the two kinds of dependencies; either a dependency between spins (not possible) or dependency between two events in the same spin (possible but of no value).
Are you able to prove that a dependency between two events in the same spin is of no value? This was one of the example. The second example was the dependency between the order of spin stream and the actual spin stream. These were the two examples.

Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 01:06 PM 2019And that's about how much I'm willing to post on forum.
Its a shame you arent willing Luckyfella. I for one would be very keen to explore on this further.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 08:10 PM 2019
I will attempt to reply to everything you said tinsoldiers

I’ll start off with yes I did quit.  Then I saw a post from one of the members in reply to someone and it seems some ppl are understanding.  Not fully but at least the information is sort of getting across

Then at the same time I  feel I am revealing to much information that I personally have worked very hard to achieve.  So it makes it difficult to just give.   Many of your specific questions if I share a solution directly it will indirectly show you what to do.  If I show you proof using spin results it can be reengineered.  So I’ve shared what I can and in a way that shows enough to get my point across.  If you understand then happy I can help move you along.

I personally enjoy the search. So I’m always thinking how can I make things better or apply differently to get new results.  I enjoy the topic of random and non random and predictability.  So the forum is the only outlet I really have to sort of discuss a bit. 

Now let me try to get to some of your questions...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 08:29 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 07:51 PM 2019
If I go by your claims in this example - you are saying my sessions are limited by the EC, so my individual rows are never in the negative. But your columns are the natural line bets and they are subject to LLN as you play many times your winning sessions. So the sum of rows are positive while the sum of the columns are negative expectation. See the contradiction?


The example was to make a point...

LLN will not affect it because the session isn’t long enough.

Again this is example...

If I’m playing double street in 3 spins and always win before the 3 spins are over even if the win is 0 and not negative.

How is LLN affecting you?

Its either you end positive in 3 spins or you end at 0

Line 1
Line 1 and line 2
Line 1 and line 2 and line 3

-1
-2
-3.......if by this result you win you break even its not negative.

Again this is for my example demonstrated using ec and lines.

Now using the live results.  I didn’t use the same exact idea because I didn’t use EC but my sessions were limited to betting decisions.  Which I kept winning no later then 8th decision.   Also my cycles were based on my wins.

Whether that was 1,2,3,4 lines played. Mostly 1,2 tho....But the example was just trying to show you decisions can be limited and sort of controlled.

Then I showed the opposite bet which was positive flatbet.

The thing is I share something to make a point.  It’s the easiest way to understand.  But the ideas need to evolve a bit for better use.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 08:40 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 07:51 PM 2019I reiterate, I AGREE WITH YOU that zero isnt the biggest enemy in roulette. However you were using this example to make a point and in this example zero will impact the opposite bets. I am being led to believe that Falkor is correct in saying that what doesnt work forward doesnt work backward, and what works forward will work backward - And zero makes it worse when you do the opposite bets. Your experience might be different, but lets not side track the conversation and get back to LLN that we were discussing. I like getting clarity on one point before moving to other.
Yes zero would affect this session.  The zero could also have came when I didn’t bet. I believe I had 23 NB

Also I can play two games at the same time both consisting of Double streets.
Remember every bet placed is an individual bet whether across the board or at different time.  Each bet is independent.

I can play more games and use the profit of those results to cover zero every single spin.  Look at the results if I can win in a specified number of spins and I can add two or three different games to all win in a specified number of spins.  All independent games.  I can use one to cover zero.

I can have all my bets at 4 units and cover zero with .50 units every spin.

But yes if your looking for me to say would zero have affected this session shown and I didn’t cover it.  Yes the results would be different.  I agree...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 08:55 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 07:51 PM 2019
Are you intending to say repeat will be in the last 18? Or are you saying it will be nearly always in the last 18. Just thought of clarifying, as I want to make sure it isnt a oversight. Here again i think ati is right in saying both are the same.
Yes repeats can come from 19-36 spins back.  But they don’t...  sometimes you will run into the situation.  But more then 95%( I don’t know the exact number) of the time it comes from last 18.

I posted a table showing proof that repeats come from last 18.  Also herby posted proof using percentages a few post back.

To get these results.  Each time a repeat happens you start the count until the next repeat.

So 123456781... means repeat happened 8 spins back.

Now from this repeat we count until the next repeat.

I attached herby image and the one I posted below
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 13, 10:57 PM 2019
This topic has moved into the area of joint, marginal and conditional probability.

10.26 onwards is about the topic of independent which is relevant to the discussion here.
link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=SrEmzdOT65s

If you conduct large data test, you will find the probability will converge to it's expected value, therefore confirming independent outcomes.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 13, 11:17 PM 2019
This video is focused on probability measure of independent events.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 13, 11:50 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 07:51 PM 2019
Its a shame you arent willing Luckyfella. I for one would be very keen to explore on this further.
Random state vs chaotic state

Assumption 1 - chaotic state based on the physical nature of dealer, ball and wheel.
(you have the right to disagree)

Fact 1 - Binomial distribution.

Although theoretically any sequence of outcome is possible, how possible is this sequence to appear in our casino lifetime ?
0
0
0
0
0

Fact 1 - binomial distribution applies to our roulette lifetime, and this is relevant to our bets.

Fact 2 - If we keep the time short within current condition, the prediction can be of useful accuracy.

Fact 3 - the bets can be conditional, for improved accuracy the outcome has to be dependent.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 14, 04:28 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 13, 05:41 PM 2019
I can't really comment on MoneyT's latest example because in all my testing "normal" and "opposite" bets always result in break even, so I couldn't possibly fathom his partial test results let alone hypothesis.

Regarding my earlier observation I thought I would give an actual example - nothing hidden here:

(link:s://i.postimg.cc/XvBV7dmy/principle.png)

Under standard number repeats I encountered CL10,3,5 and finally 15.
However, under principle C number repeats I countered 2 x CL12s prior to the 15.

Therefore, CL25 is the maximum for normal number repeats - but if we carry over all uniques after every cycle (principle C) then we can encounter cycle lengths higher than CL25!

This could mean something along the lines of: cycle length+position of the current cycle is dependent on the order+position of the previous cycle.
There are two points to take note -

1. For conditional probability, the dependent conditions should ideally be not connected. Subset condition only serve to provide the details.

2. When order is taken into account the permutations has grown exponentially.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 14, 07:01 AM 2019
In the end I never encountered any number cycles above CL26 on the principle C side - nowhere near 36 unique numbers - but 23-25 were nevertheless much more prevalent compared to the normal principle A re-tracking mechanism.

(link:s://i.postimg.cc/rsrXGKKb/ncl26.png)

(link:s://i.postimg.cc/FR1QRPmh/ncl26b.png)

(link:s://i.postimg.cc/xC7VbKTM/ncl26c.png)

(link:s://i.postimg.cc/6QMXtkkH/ncl26d.png)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 14, 10:25 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 13, 11:50 PM 2019Fact 1 - binomial distribution applies to our roulette lifetime, and this is relevant to our bets.
Fact 2 - If we keep the time short within current condition, the prediction can be of useful accuracy.
Fact 3 - the bets can be conditional, for improved accuracy the outcome has to be dependent.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 08:10 PM 2019Then at the same time I  feel I am revealing to much information that I personally have worked very hard to achieve.  So it makes it difficult to just give.
Completely understand. Let us focus only on information that is public which is pure mathematics.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 08:55 PM 2019But they don’t...  sometimes you will run into the situation.
This is what i was saying as contradicting. You say they dont and then say sometimes it can happen :) However, i got what you meant. A couple of questions for you, why 18, why not 17, why not 16 as the stop, why do you say it is 18, what is magical about it? At the end of the day, it is pure probability laws.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 08:29 PM 2019But the ideas need to evolve a bit for better use.
I will tell you what is difficult for everyone to get. You are saying LLN doesnt impact you, as you win every session you play within a certain number of spins. The argument from everyone is such a system doesnt exist which can win every session you play. Your example doesnt make sense as it is not the right one and as you say it needs to evolve. So when you are shaking the basic assumption of LLN to say that you are able to control your sessions to win every session, either we need better examples or we need better mathematic representations like i was showing in columns/rows. You think you might be able to try that? Else, you will not achieve your objective of sharing what you know.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 14, 02:36 PM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 13, 12:29 AM 2019The exact distribution for roulette is the binomial probability  distribution.

Herby, this is a bit confused. It doesn't make sense to say the binomial is the 'exact' distribution for roulette. Roulette doesn't 'have' a single distribution; it has many depending on which aspect of the game you're looking at and how it is best modeled. It could be the uniform distribution (all probabilities are equal) or the geometric distribution (number of failures until first success), or the multinomial distribution (chance of multiple mutually exclusive outcomes in a series of trials), etc.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 14, 02:49 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 13, 07:51 PM 2019Are you able to prove that a dependency between two events in the same spin is of no value? This was one of the example.

Tin, no 'proof' is needed because it's self-evident. Obviously you have to bet before the next spin, but if the dependency exists only with regard to one and the same spin - for example, probability of the first dozen given red - what is given here (namely, red), is no more predictable than the first dozen itself. Yes you can calculate the probability, but the given isn't really 'given' until you know the result.  ^-^

QuoteThe second example was the dependency between the order of spin stream and the actual spin stream. These were the two examples.

I don't understand what you mean. What's the difference between the 'order' of the spin stream and the actual spin stream?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 14, 03:04 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 13, 11:50 PM 2019Fact 1 - Binomial distribution.
Fact 1 - binomial distribution applies to our roulette lifetime, and this is relevant to our bets.

Fact 2 - If we keep the time short within current condition, the prediction can be of useful accuracy.

Fact 3 - the bets can be conditional, for improved accuracy the outcome has to be dependent.

lucky, Fact 1 is inconsistent with Fact 3. One of the Binomial distribution's assumptions is that trials are independent. If roulette wasn't a game of independent trials the binomial distribution wouldn't be a good model for the distribution of hits and misses (success or failure, win or loss, etc).  Yes you can create 'conditional' bets, but that doesn't make the outcomes dependent. If the trials were dependent the binomial would be a lousy model and its predictions would be poor, but they are very good.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 14, 07:31 PM 2019
The only dependence, or more specifically "link", between winning number, is what causes numbers to win.tm This is the physical variables like rotor speed. What else would it be? The number of reds?

Statistics is just past. It doesnt influence the future, but still holds clues. Distinguish between irrelevant and relevant statistics.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 14, 07:38 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 14, 03:04 PM 2019
Yes you can create 'conditional' bets, but that doesn't make the outcomes dependent. :thumbsup:
That's what what I meant.

The purpose of the videos is to cover both these aspects.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 14, 07:48 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 14, 02:36 PM 2019Herby, this is a bit confused.
Thanks for correcting.
Since the user Bayes isn't here any more all the math here seems a bit confused.

Maybe you allow to say it is helpful to differentiate between discrete and continous distributions.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 14, 09:46 PM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 14, 03:04 PM 2019
If the trials were dependent the binomial would be a lousy model and its predictions would be poor, but they are very good.
This has to be the most important basis then. :thumbsup:


If roulette outcomes were to be,
R B R B R B R B 0 R B R 0 B R B R B.....

then nobody have a chance of winning, losing to house edge of extra pocket and unfair payout.

Since roulette outcomes is something like this,

R R B B B B R R B R B 0 R R R B B R R...

then some players win and others lose, the casino always win.

If the player bets R and it turns out B, he sees it as negative variance or "unlucky".

While another player bets B, he sees it as positive variance or "luck".

That's why I wrote earlier that the winning systems bet has to be good at predicting variance aka "luck".
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 14, 10:07 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 14, 09:46 PM 2019
That's why I wrote earlier that the winning systems bet has to be good at predicting variance aka "luck".
We all know that it's not possible to predict "luck".

The point I want to convey across with this predict "luck" posts is to highlight what YOU expect the systems bet has to do, that is to predict accurately.

To win you have to increase the accuracy of your predictions. -----steve unquote

So long as you have this predict requirement it's bound to fail.

No matter how awesome your method of prediction, it still lose against this spin sequence which is theoretically possible

R B R B R B R B 0 R B 0 R B R B R B 0 R ....
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 14, 10:25 PM 2019
 (I can't edit the above post)
Or,

0 0 0 0 0

Or,

1 2 3 4 5

Or,

R R B B B R B R R 0 B B B B B B B B R B R B R B 0 R B 0 0 0 0 R R R R B R B.....

A mix of any of the above. Where everything and anything is theoretically possible that makes prediction impossible.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 14, 10:54 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 14, 10:25 AM 2019
This is what i was saying as contradicting. You say they dont and then say sometimes it can happen :) However, i got what you meant. A couple of questions for you, why 18, why not 17, why not 16 as the stop, why do you say it is 18, what is magical about it? At the end of the day, it is pure probability laws.

The statistic show that it happens at half... so it’s 36 numbers and half is 18.

The repeat comes past 19-36 less then 5% of the time.  I believe it’s around 1% but I don’t have the exact number.

So maybe sometimes isn’t the right word.  Because it’s much less then sometimes. It’s not a contradiction.  I’m just pointing it out that it can happen but 95%/99%vs 1%/5%.  Contradiction would be 90/10 maybe or 85/15.  But the percent is so low that I don’t see why anyone needs to even focus on it.

The Fact is repeat happens from last 18 recent numbers

Once it hits half at 19 anything beyond that isn’t recent.

Birthday paradox takes all numbers into account.  So if it’s past 19-36.  It will be considered.  But recent numbers are only 18.

Same as if we use splits... recent numbers is up to 9 splits.

Most recent numbers and birthday paradox have almost the same meaning but they are two different things.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 14, 11:24 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 14, 10:25 AM 2019
I will tell you what is difficult for everyone to get. You are saying LLN doesnt impact you, as you win every session you play within a certain number of spins. The argument from everyone is such a system doesnt exist which can win every session you play. Your example doesnt make sense as it is not the right one and as you say it needs to evolve. So when you are shaking the basic assumption of LLN to say that you are able to control your sessions to win every session, either we need better examples or we need better mathematic representations like i was showing in columns/rows. You think you might be able to try that? Else, you will not achieve your objective of sharing what you know.

I tried to show the bankroll against the bets taking place.

Column 1
L
H
L
L

Column 2
3
5
2
2

Basically if you have 1 bet going down column 1 in the long run it will be negative

If you have another bet  in column 2 in the long run it will be negative

In both cases LLN will kick in and give you a negative outcome.  We agree up to this point!

Column 1 has a 3 spin limit for a repeat to come. Column 2 has a 7 spin limit.

So I said if you can use the 3 spin limit from column 1 while betting on column 2. 

Then you have changed the LLN affect on column 2.  If you can always get a win in 3 spins maximum.

So it’s like picking a double street at an EC odds.  But more or less the spins it takes to end.

You increase the accuracy because instead of losing double streets all the way up to 7 spins your winning at 3.  So the LLN affect even tho you can place 1,000,000 bets.  It won’t affect you.

That’s basically what I said and tried to show.  Now I am not saying this exist, especially not in this format.

We are strictly talking LLN affecting this idea and how it neutralizes the affect.

This was the Example I used to make a point.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 15, 12:52 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 14, 11:24 PM 2019
If you can always get a win in 3 spins maximum.
In 100spins, you win 33x for lines.

This has to be the best roulette predictor ever. :thumbsup:

You have beaten steve's rc at 150% edge.

My prediction is mostly poor, have to admit no talent. So I gave up on prediction. :)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 15, 05:33 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 14, 09:46 PM 2019If the trials were dependent the binomial would be a lousy model and its predictions would be poor, but they are very good.

This has to be the most important basis then.

When I say 'predictions' I just mean that the binomial distribution is a good model for the numbers of failures/successes in a sequence of trials. It doesn't mean you can use it to increase predictive accuracy of the next spin.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 15, 05:41 AM 2019
Quote from: Steve on Oct 14, 07:31 PM 2019The only dependence, or more specifically "link", between winning number, is what causes numbers to win.tm This is the physical variables like rotor speed. What else would it be? The number of reds?

Statistics is just past. It doesnt influence the future, but still holds clues. Distinguish between irrelevant and relevant statistics.

There is physical independence (or dependence) and statistical independence (or dependence). Obviously there is no physical dependence between spins, just as between successive flips of a coin. Where there is physical independence there must be statistical independence.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 15, 05:47 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 15, 05:33 AM 2019
When I say 'predictions' I just mean that the binomial distribution is a good model for the numbers of failures/successes in a sequence of trials. It doesn't mean you can use it to increase predictive accuracy of the next spin.
There are 2 posters on this thread who possess god level predicting capablility, steve rc with his 150% edge and OP.

Ask both of them to help you improve your prediction, make sense ?

Or you can ask Kav for his no need for accuracy method. :thumbsup:
(I'm here hopefully pick up some secret sauce  :question:)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: redhot on Oct 15, 08:15 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 14, 11:24 PM 2019
I tried to show the bankroll against the bets taking place.

Column 1
L
H
L
L

Column 2
3
5
2
2

Basically if you have 1 bet going down column 1 in the long run it will be negative

If you have another bet  in column 2 in the long run it will be negative

In both cases LLN will kick in and give you a negative outcome.  We agree up to this point!

Column 1 has a 3 spin limit for a repeat to come. Column 2 has a 7 spin limit.

So I said if you can use the 3 spin limit from column 1 while betting on column 2. 

Then you have changed the LLN affect on column 2.  If you can always get a win in 3 spins maximum.

So it’s like picking a double street at an EC odds.  But more or less the spins it takes to end.

You increase the accuracy because instead of losing double streets all the way up to 7 spins your winning at 3.  So the LLN affect even tho you can place 1,000,000 bets.  It won’t affect you.

That’s basically what I said and tried to show.  Now I am not saying this exist, especially not in this format.

We are strictly talking LLN affecting this idea and how it neutralizes the affect.

This was the Example I used to make a point.

Thanks MoneyT, your point makes sense now.

So one way to avoid the LLN is to increase the accuracy of your bet so you win more frequently than the expectation. If you're betting double streets and winning at a frequency greater than 1/6, the LLN can't catch you.

The big question is, can this be done?  :question:

Using your example:

Column 1
L
H
L
L

Column 2
3
5
2
2

At spin 4, if betting for the repeat in column 2, you would need to bet on double streets 3, 5 and 2.

However, if for whatever reason we think column 1 is going to repeat on the EC, that means the result will be 'L'

We could then only bet the 'Low' double streets, so 2 and 3. Our accuracy has increased as we've narrowed down the bet selection from 3 double streets down to 2.

However you look at this, it comes down to being able to 'rule out' certain options. If there's 6 possible options and we can find a reason/dependency to rule out 3 of those options, we'll be betting at better odds than expectation.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 09:03 AM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 15, 08:15 AM 2019

The big question is, can this be done?  :question:


If you can’t do this particular thing are others similar ideas that can....?!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 15, 09:10 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 09:03 AM 2019
If you can’t do this particular thing are others similar ideas that can....?!

You may want to be able to answer your own questions before you riddle others with them.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 09:28 AM 2019
I did some reading of redd old material yesterday.

I woke up this morning thinking about some of the stuff and I had some sort of revelation 😱

A new level of understanding on cycles and events that I never saw before.  This sh*t is mind blowing.

I wrote 3 different versions of this post but I keep deleting it cause it’s to cryptic.  At the moment I don’t know how to share this new idea. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 15, 09:33 AM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 15, 08:15 AM 2019However you look at this, it comes down to being able to 'rule out' certain options.

Yes exactly. But the mistake people make is thinking that ruling out certain options for a sequence of spins gives them an edge. Thus you see arguments in threads like priyanka's 'Random thoughts' for using VDW and cycles, the suggestion is that you should investigate events which must happen (such as after 3 spins you must get a dozen repeating). Turbo says the same thing: that 'random has limits' and you should start with things which either must happen or cannot happen.

But all of these certain and impossible events apply to sequences of spins. Turbo always says forget about the next spin and focus on multiple spins. But as I keeping saying, you cannot bet directly on a sequence of spins playing out a particular way! you can only bet on one spin at a time! And nothing can be ruled out with regards to the next spin. So all these systems and ideas based on what must and can't happen in a sequence are completely irrelevant to the actual game of roulette.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 09:39 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 15, 09:10 AM 2019
You may want to be able to answer your own questions before you riddle others with them.

I showed proof in my example that I can do something similar!   Questions help others think different.

You keep insinuating that I’m looking for information from ppl in this forum.

I want one person to come forward and say I asked for them to share info with me.  And each person that has attempted something and it seems to work I’ve told them congrats and never even asked what they did.

So please stfu with your dumb comments and accusations.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 09:50 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 15, 09:33 AM 2019
Yes exactly. But the mistake people make is thinking that ruling out certain options for a sequence of spins gives them an edge. Thus you see arguments in threads like priyanka's 'Random thoughts' for using VDW and cycles, the suggestion is that you should investigate events which must happen (such as after 3 spins you must get a dozen repeating). Turbo says the same thing: that 'random has limits' and you should start with things which either must happen or cannot happen.

But all of these certain and impossible events apply to sequences of spins. Turbo always says forget about the next spin and focus on multiple spins. But as I keeping saying, you cannot bet directly on a sequence of spins playing out a particular way! you can only bet on one spin at a time! And nothing can be ruled out with regards to the next spin. So all these systems and ideas based on what must and can't happen in a sequence are completely irrelevant to the actual game of roulette.

Get your facts correct.  A cycle will happen.  That is a fact.....

You can’t change it!  Believing or not believing, it’s a fact.

I can’t apply cycles= it doesn’t work

Now finding a way to use this information is another story.  If you haven’t found it, it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist!  Just means you haven’t found the application.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 15, 09:53 AM 2019

Ok, tough guy.

This game of yours is sickening and it’s been going on for years. 

The funny thing is the people you are seeking help from are right here in this thread. 

Enjoy the chase! 

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 15, 09:58 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 09:50 AM 2019Get your facts correct.  A cycle will happen.  That is a fact.....

You can’t change it!  Believing or not believing, it’s a fact.

Apparently my post went right over your head. I didn't say that cycles don't happen, or other events - they do. The point is that you can't exploit them because they all involve sequences (multiple spins), and you can't bet directly on a sequence of   spins, you can only bet on the next spin. So all the systems based on these ideas say that IF I could bet in advance on a sequence turning out a certain way, then I would have an edge.

And betting on a partially formed sequence doesn't work, because spins are independent, so the partially formed sequence doesn't tell you how the sequence will complete (there are usually a large number of ways it could complete, each of them being equally likely).
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 10:03 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 15, 09:53 AM 2019
Ok, tough guy.

This game of yours is sickening and it’s been going on for years. 

The funny thing is the people you are seeking help from are right here in this thread. 

Enjoy the chase!

I’m not seeking help from anyone.  And no one in here can help if I did need any.

Makes no sense for me to look for help from people I know don’t have it.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 10:13 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 15, 09:58 AM 2019
Apparently my post went right over your head. I didn't say that cycles don't happen, or other events - they do. The point is that you can't exploit them because they all involve sequences (multiple spins), and you can't bet directly on a sequence of   spins, you can only bet on the next spin. So all the systems based on these ideas say that IF I could bet in advance on a sequence turning out a certain way, then I would have an edge.

And betting on a partially formed sequence doesn't work, because spins are independent, so the partially formed sequence doesn't tell you how the sequence will complete (there are usually a large number of ways it could complete, each of them being equally likely).

Again.....

If YOU can’t do something it doesn’t mean SOMEONE else can’t do it also.

You’re still talking 🍎 and I’m still talking 🍊.  Yet you continue to think we are having the same conversation. After I consistently tell you.  You keep going back to the same thing.

Yes I know each spin is independent.  Yes I know the game is random.

If I’m still sticking to my point. It’s not that I am wrong.  It’s just you don’t know the application.

So once again...

If you don’t know the application, it doesn’t mean the application doesn’t exist.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 15, 10:40 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 15, 09:33 AM 2019But as I keeping saying, you cannot bet directly on a sequence of spins playing out a particular way!
Well said Joe.

This is the point most of the people forget and leave it for others to figure out when coming out with these concepts and let people go in a wild goose chase. While the search and journey is exciting, go on it knowing this element that is missing. Without that, it is a lost cause to start with. This goes to the example that Money was using as well. If there is a way to limit one of the streams and improve accuracy of predictions, that’s the recipe for a grail. But Unfortnately roulette doesn’t have such a selection process that anyone here is aware of.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 15, 10:48 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 10:13 AM 2019If you don’t know the application, it doesn’t mean the application doesn’t exist.
Money, I can keep claiming that I know how to go to space without telling how I will do it. I can keep claiming that I can become a billionaire in two days without telling how to do it. And I can say just because you don’t know don’t think I can. You see the point here.

So far, none of your examples or your explanations how alluded to the applicability of this. If you have such an example or explanation please provide it. Else in a world where we are don’t even trust god, how do you think people are going to trust your claims. You may say let them not, but that is not evident from the way you are defending your claims. I understand that you don’t want to give away your life’s work and it is a difficult line you are treading. But unless your approach to explain change, this is not going anywhere as your explanations doesn’t really suggest anything different to what common mathematics suggest. 

Also, may I kindly recommend that you do some empirical testing as your maths is not as sound as I would expect to be and may be, may be if you play with real casino spins even for a couple of thousand spins, you may understand what people are trying to explain here.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 15, 10:55 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 10:13 AM 2019If YOU can’t do something it doesn’t mean SOMEONE else can’t do it also.

It's not a question of ability or knowledge, but logic. You agree that spins are independent, and I assume you agree that systems based on cycles and events are predicated on multiple spins, not the next spin. So in order for the cycle-based systems to work, either you should be able to bet directly on a sequence of spins having a particular pattern (impossible), or you must bet one spin at a time on the pattern forming the way you want it to in order to get an edge. The pattern could be either not formed at all when you start betting, or it could be partially formed. Either way, because spins are independent (which you admit) and past spins do not influence future spins, you cannot predict any better than random that the desired pattern will form, and therefore will have no edge.

No particular 'application' will change that irrefutable logic. But continue to play the mystery card if you like; some people who haven't grasped the above logic will fall for it.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 11:36 AM 2019
Joe I will agree to disagree with you

Tinsoldiers I did share applicability directly and indirectly.  I know for a fact that some ppl understood.

I know 4 members that understood.  And attempted to try this new angle. 

This new angle will lead them to understand more and even win.  But there is another step after that to shortened the spin success, which I talked about.  But atleast they got to the step where they can win even if the edge is slightly small.

So I put the ideas out there and I used facts and theories as well. 

The question is... why some are picking it up and others aren’t?

Like herby basically said.. you just have to much knowledge about math and it doesn’t allow you to learn more.

I used the ec and lines example and you can’t see that winning lines in 3 spins will negate the LLN.  Because of the example my math isn’t correct.

So I will agree and say my math isn’t sound and makes no sense.

I’ll agree to disagree with you also
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 15, 11:51 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 15, 10:55 AM 2019
It's not a question of ability or knowledge, but logic.
I think thats the premise under which this whole thread was started. But i dont know why some people in this thread take things personally when we are having a good discussion. Well said Joe. :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Quote from: Joe on Oct 15, 10:55 AM 2019because spins are independent (which you admit) and past spins do not influence future spins, you cannot predict any better than random that the desired pattern will form, and therefore will have no edge.
To be fair to Money, he has established already that he is not betting on a pattern. He also established the fact that he is actually not betting on spins but something around the order of spins. He is still playign the mystery card, and i am guessing he will continue to play it either intentionally or unintentionally as he feels his way of playing is very precious and cannot be shared to save global economy from crashing.

Coming back to what we were discussing.
Quote from: Joe on Oct 14, 02:49 PM 2019
Tin, no 'proof' is needed because it's self-evident. Obviously you have to bet before the next spin, but if the dependency exists only with regard to one and the same spin - for example, probability of the first dozen given red - what is given here (namely, red), is no more predictable than the first dozen itself. Yes you can calculate the probability, but the given isn't really 'given' until you know the result.  ^-^
I agree that the given is not a given until you know the result. But this isnt a proof that this cannot be used. As you rightly said, roulette is a dynamic game with multiple event streams to look at.  May be there is an event stream hiding somewhere there, unless there is a proof that it doesnt exist, which can help us in using this dependency within the same spin.

Quote from: Joe on Oct 14, 02:49 PM 2019
I don't understand what you mean. What's the difference between the 'order' of the spin stream and the actual spin stream?
For a primer I was talking about this topic that people are commonly discussing here, which can help you define order of spin stream and actual spin stream - link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17115.0    In simple terms, it is nothing but a stream containing the order in which the roulette spins appear in reference to a starting order in which spins are ordered. It could be whichever way you want - 0-36, 36-0, odd spins first followed by even spins etc.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 11:36 AM 2019I used the ec and lines example and you can’t see that winning lines in 3 spins will negate the LLN.  Because of the example my math isn’t correct.
Agree to disagree is not a way to break the deadlock in my terms :) Let me reiterate, i see your example, your example is winning lines in 3 spins will negate the LLN. But there is no LLN to be applied in your example. Going back to what LLN is,  "the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.". In your case you are expecting the line to win in 3 spins - so even in your scenario LLN applies as you are using a magic selection method from first stream into the second stream which is helpign you change the expectation. LLN still applies but you have changed the expectation, so you end up in positive. All good here, get me now?

So it is not any more about LLN, but about your bet selection process which can change expectation. Unforutnately this is the bit which you have kept mum about and have not explained any further. Thats what i have been saying.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 12:02 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 15, 11:51 AM 2019
Agree to disagree is not a way to break the deadlock in my terms :)

😳😱
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 12:16 PM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 15, 11:51 AM 2019
Let me reiterate, i see your example, your example is winning lines in 3 spins will negate the LLN. But there is no LLN to be applied in your example. Going back to what LLN is,  "the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.". In your case you are expecting the line to win in 3 spins - so even in your scenario LLN applies as you are using a magic selection method from first stream into the second stream which is helpign you change the expectation. LLN still applies but you have changed the expectation, so you end up in positive. All good here, get me now?

So it is not any more about LLN, but about your bet selection process which can change expectation. Unforutnately this is the bit which you have kept mum about and have not explained any further. Thats what i have been saying.

But the point was to show LLN if avoided would result positive. Also the example is an idea that can lead to this avoidance.  But I didn’t say I will share exactly how.

We spoke of the affect of LLN.  I said If we can negate this then we can win.

I said if we can negate Any of the assumptions around roulette we can win.

Assumptions
1. Unpredictable
2. Random
3. Law of large numbers
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 15, 12:45 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 12:16 PM 2019We spoke of the affect of LLN.  I said If we can negate this then we can win.
Read my post again. I have explained how you have not negated LLN, but all you have done (if true) is found a way to improve the expectation. Because you have improved expectation from your bets ( loosely put improved the accuracy of your prediction) and BECAUSE LLN IS TRUE on larger number of trials you will win.  Not because you have proved LLN to be wrong in your case. Hope you understand this?

So out of the three assumptions you have put in, you have not shaken the LLN part but the unpredictable part - you have made it more predictable and found a way to win in 3 spins. You agree on my observation of what you are doing?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 01:09 PM 2019
Ok I see what you are saying... accuracy is increased not negating the LLN

Can you give an example what would be considered negating the LLN?

Because in a large sample choosing line and winning within 3 spins will affect the average and it will not be close to the expected value on bets placed.  So the LLN will not make sense regardless how many spins you take into consideration

So both unpredictable and LLN can be categorized in the same group 🤔

Do you understand my argument?  If I’m wrong about it.  I don’t mind admitting it just saying it’s close to the same thing
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 15, 07:39 PM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 15, 08:15 AM 2019
However you look at this, it comes down to being able to 'rule out' certain options. If there's 6 possible options and we can find a reason/dependency to rule out 3 of those options, we'll be betting at better odds than expectation.
It's either rule out or rule in.

In MoneyT's example, lines is a subset of high low. It won't work.

Think of something less connected on another plain.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 03:30 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 15, 11:51 AM 2019
Coming back to what we were discussing.I agree that the given is not a given until you know the result. But this isnt a proof that this cannot be used. As you rightly said, roulette is a dynamic game with multiple event streams to look at.  May be there is an event stream hiding somewhere there, unless there is a proof that it doesnt exist, which can help us in using this dependency within the same spin.
Since we are in maybe territory, it is not irrefutable wrong for some of us to be biased in our opinion on the maybe part that it might be there.

The ignorant, uneducated, mistake, deluded, personality disorder, scammer comment is opinionated in nature.:)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Still on Oct 16, 05:57 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 09:39 AM 2019


I want one person to come forward and say I asked for them to share info with me. 

If you ask someone to help you construct a spreadsheet to test an idea would that be like asking for information?

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 16, 07:45 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 16, 03:30 AM 2019Coming back to what we were discussing.I agree that the given is not a given until you know the result. But this isnt a proof that this cannot be used. As you rightly said, roulette is a dynamic game with multiple event streams to look at.  May be there is an event stream hiding somewhere there, unless there is a proof that it doesnt exist, which can help us in using this dependency within the same spin.

Since we are in maybe territory, it is not irrefutable wrong for some of us to be biased in our opinion on the maybe part that it might be there.

Ok, but then if you believe that a 'dependent' stream might be there (it's just that nobody has found it yet), then to be consistent, you can't also believe that roulette is a game of independent trials. It's impossible to prove that there is no dependent stream because there are an infinite number of possible streams, and you can't test them all, but that doesn't prove that there are any. All the logic and evidence suggest that there are none.

Anyone is entitled to believe what they want of course, even when there is no logic or evidence in favour of it.

So if you believe that dependent streams exist then you must also deny that the next spin is independent of the previous spin, for any spin you choose in the stream, wherever it is. If you agree that the next is independent of the previous spin, you also agree that it entails that sequences are also independent of previous sequences, which is the proof that no dependent streams can exist.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 07:50 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 16, 07:45 AM 2019
Ok, but then if you believe that a 'dependent' stream might be there (it's just that nobody has found it yet), then to be consistent, you can't also believe that roulette is a game of independent trials. It's impossible to prove that there is no dependent stream because there are an infinite number of possible streams, and you can't test them all, but that doesn't prove that there are any. All the logic and evidence suggest that there are none.

Anyone is entitled to believe what they want of course, even when there is no logic or evidence in favour of it.
Agree with the bolded.

Finally, we have agreement. :thumbsup:

It's important this statement comes from you.

And I hope my stand is clear.
(I don't have to state it again.)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 16, 08:40 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 16, 07:50 AM 2019And I hope my stand is clear.

So, just to confirm : you believe that roulette is not a game of independent trials?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 08:48 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 16, 08:40 AM 2019
So, just to confirm : you believe that roulette is not a game of independent trials?
What I believe as a person is immaterial.

I chose not to answer your question.
It will open another round of discussion which I have no interest to participate in. :)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 16, 08:57 AM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 16, 05:57 AM 2019
If you ask someone to help you construct a spreadsheet to test an idea would that be like asking for information?

Read what blueprint is saying....then decide if your post makes sense.

Blueprint insinuates that I made this topic to get information from other ppl on creating a wining bet.

Now does any spreadsheet I asked of you, what 3 to 4  years ago on a labby idea.....Have anything to do with blueprint insinuating I made this topic to get new information to create a winning bet
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 16, 11:19 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 16, 08:48 AM 2019I chose not to answer your question.

No need to be defensive; if you believe outcomes are not independent I won't try to convince you that they are or ridicule your belief.  :P

Ok try this one : apart from AP and physics, do you believe that the only way to get an edge is if outcomes are not independent?

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 11:35 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 16, 11:19 AM 2019
Ok try this one : apart from AP and physics, do you believe that the only way to get an edge is if outcomes are not independent?
Yes, and that's what I have written all along.

Anyway, I am a layman with no specific undergraduate education major in statistics. As I wrote, I studied A level stats with a B grade 3 decades ago with calculations of area under the curve as my favourite. The rest I learnt from yours and jerome posts, most others from youtube videos. I believe I know enough of what statistics is after refresher course. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Still on Oct 16, 11:48 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 16, 08:57 AM 2019
Read what blueprint is saying....then decide if your post makes sense.

Blueprint insinuates that I made this topic to get information from other ppl on creating a wining bet.

Now does any spreadsheet I asked of you, what 3 to 4  years ago on a labby idea.....Have anything to do with blueprint insinuating I made this topic to get new information to create a winning bet

Well one way to get info is to posture as someone who already has an edge.  At that point you don't have to solicit for info. You could just wait till someone puts something in your lap via PM.  Assuming you already have what it takes they might assume they give up nothing and take no risk to give you info unsolicited. This posture would be like a spider waiting with its web. I don't see another posture that would illicit edge making info from people who think they've earned their knowledge through their own hard work and can't see how the info would apply to any random betting environment besides roulette...and so hoard info in a rather miserly fashion.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 16, 01:11 PM 2019
Quote from: ozon on Oct 09, 04:28 PM 2019
I don't know if your conversations will lead to any specific theories that will be clearly presented.

I have recently come full circle and returned to total brutal force.
In my free time I played RS something so banal simple that it is hard to believe.
I started the 15 spins session, chose EC with 5 or less hits, and played for the next 15 spins.
I did not count on RTM, but on more stable 15 spins.
Brutal force is Labby with 2000 units bankroll, if the progression did not end in 15 spins window, I continued it in the next session.
Why it works?
and probably one day a bad series will come, but for now, there is a big plus.

IMHO the most valuable post on the whole thread.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 02:04 PM 2019
The discussion on this thread has revealed that no one has conducted large data test of all the infinite permutations of roulette spins to prove that every possible outcome are  independent.

Everything else are opinions.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 03:17 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 16, 02:04 PM 2019
The discussion on this thread has revealed that no one has conducted large data test of all the infinite permutations of roulette spins to prove that every possible outcome are  independent.

Everything else are opinions.
If anyone is 100% certain of independent roulette spins, he has to present mathematical proof of such covering all possible permutations. :)

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ozon on Oct 16, 05:02 PM 2019
Thanks Kav to promote my post.
Unfortunately, these topics will not lead to anything, because no one really wants to share the edge on open forum.
I will say simply, using the strategy I presented with hit n run for one session gives some strange positive results.
I still don't get it. If we start sessions on 1 spin and play up to 30 spins, we have better results and smaller drowdawn than we would play in the flow of numbers.
WHAT I understand by flow of numbers, playing sesion after sesion with tracking, worst EC numbers.
My test was on RS, and alweys start session on 1 spin, but you will use live spins in continuity, the results are worse.
Why?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 16, 06:26 PM 2019
OK, I think I've finally sussed out how to work with multiple repeat front runners and tame LLN!  :)

Let's say we've got 3 outcomes on the dozen cycles (tally below). There's more chance of a repeat compared to 3 uniques showing:

020 or 200 or 002

When 3 uniques do show then it's a sign that LLN is kicking in:

111

Now, if we keep playing then we will fall into LLN's trap that has begun to pull us in with 111. So what do we do?

Well, perhaps we should switch to playing lines, numbers or something else instead of the dozen events?

No! I think there's a better way... We need to wait out LLN till it's strength begins to fade and the tides turn back to the repeat:

001 101 111 112 212 222 322 332 432

Now we can start playing again...

110 120
011 021
020
110 120
011 012
002
101 201
101 102
101 201
200
101 201
200
200
110 210

110 111 211 311
110 111 112 113
002

:thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 06:52 PM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 16, 06:26 PM 2019
OK, I think I've finally sussed out how to work with multiple repeat front runners and tame LLN!  :)

Let's say we've got 3 outcomes on the dozen cycles (tally below). There's more chance of a repeat compared to 3 uniques showing:

020 or 200 or 002

When 3 uniques do show then it's a sign that LLN is kicking in:

111

Now, if we keep playing then we will fall into LLN's trap that has begun to pull us in with 111. So what do we do?

Well, perhaps we should switch to playing lines, numbers or something else instead of the dozen events?

No! I think there's a better way... We need to wait out LLN till it's strength begins to fade and the tides turn back to the repeat:

001 101 111 112 212 222 322 332 432

Now we can start playing again...

110 120
011 021
020
110 120
011 012
002
101 201
101 102
101 201
200
101 201
200
200
110 210

110 111 211 311
110 111 112 113
002

:thumbsup:
For the first time you have shown a different angle from the same old.

For dependent outcome it must have two unconnected points of reference.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 16, 06:54 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 16, 06:52 PM 2019
For the first time you have shown a different angle from the same old.

For dependent outcome it must have two unconnected points of reference.
What does that mean...?

Anyhow, so what do you think... am I on the Money now?  :P
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 07:37 PM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 16, 06:54 PM 2019
Anyhow, so what do you think... am I on the Money now?  :P
Still far from your intended destination. :)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 16, 07:56 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 16, 07:37 PM 2019
Still far from your intended destination. :)
Does this get me any closer: when LLN strikes we should play opposite instead of waiting it out?  :-X
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 16, 10:51 PM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 16, 07:56 PM 2019
Does this get me any closer: when LLN strikes we should play opposite instead of waiting it out?  :-X
On the right track.
Read my posts. Reread until you get it.
They were written to indicate what don't work.
Saves you the trouble, a giveaway.
If you keep going down those dead paths you are bound to fail.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 17, 01:40 AM 2019
You are trolling each other, right? O0
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 17, 01:44 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 17, 01:40 AM 2019
You are trolling each other, right? O0
Kav, I am interested in your MM strategies, want to pick your brain.

Start a thread to discuss MM. Or post links of your MM work. Thanks

I don't have to pay you mentoring fees right ? :question:

Trying my luck, ofc I hv to pay wtf fees.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 17, 01:52 AM 2019
ozon,
the reason these topics lead nowhere is NOT the secrecy of the "knowers".

It is because they are discussed by people who have no idea and are lost in in a labyrinth of thoughts and concept that make no sense.
Oh, and they are NOT playing the game. This is obvious. You have more real game experience (at least recently) from the main posters of this topic. These are couch players who like to play the "I know but I won't tell" game. Can't you see these people are not actually playing the game? They just enjoy a good roulette riddle and playing with "roulette problems". To me this is obvious.

Again your system is a good one. I mean it. Congrats


Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 17, 02:05 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 17, 01:52 AM 2019
Can't you see these people are not actually playing the game? They just enjoy a good roulette riddle and playing with "roulette problems". To me this is obvious.
Better than losing real money playing your sure to lose MM strategies. :thumbsup:

You have to read steve's posts about your losing MM strategies.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 17, 02:13 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 17, 02:05 AM 2019
Better than losing real money playing your sure to lose MM strategies. :thumbsup:
You have to read steve's posts about your losing MM strategies.

No, it's not better to have people who don't play the game pretending to know more than those who actually play it and experience it every other day.

Trying to create friction between me and other posters... FAILED.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 17, 02:45 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 17, 02:13 AM 2019
Trying to create friction between me and other posters... FAILED.
It's about your 100% losing MM strategy.

Your MM strategy has not change the accuracy of your bet, not changed the odds. It's a loser.

Learnt this from steve. :thumbsup:

What's worse is collecting money from people selling sure to lose MM strategy. :twisted:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 17, 04:15 AM 2019
It is really surprizing that after all the knowledge people have amassed from your posts they are still looking for something that really works  :-*

It's really funny that although I do not promote or hint at my strategies, people like you always bring them up! Free promotion!
And stop referring to things you have no idea about, like mathematics or my strategies. You have no clue about either.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 17, 04:43 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 17, 04:15 AM 2019
It is really surprizing that after all the knowledge people have amassed from your posts they are still looking for something that really works  :-*

It's really funny that although I do not promote or hint at my strategies, people like you always bring them up! Free promotion!
And stop referring to things you have no idea about, like mathematics or my strategies. You have no clue about either.
Stick to the method you sell, commercial marketer kav.

Does your method have a net positive edge ?

Yes or no ?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 17, 08:13 AM 2019
Quote from: Still on Oct 16, 11:48 AM 2019
Well one way to get info is to posture as someone who already has an edge.  At that point you don't have to solicit for info. You could just wait till someone puts something in your lap via PM.  Assuming you already have what it takes they might assume they give up nothing and take no risk to give you info unsolicited. This posture would be like a spider waiting with its web. I don't see another posture that would illicit edge making info from people who think they've earned their knowledge through their own hard work and can't see how the info would apply to any random betting environment besides roulette...and so hoard info in a rather miserly fashion.

I guess one can do that... but once again if anyone shared anything with me to come forward!

It’s that simple.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: redhot on Oct 17, 08:20 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 09:28 AM 2019
I did some reading of redd old material yesterday.

I woke up this morning thinking about some of the stuff and I had some sort of revelation 😱

A new level of understanding on cycles and events that I never saw before.  This sh*t is mind blowing.

I wrote 3 different versions of this post but I keep deleting it cause it’s to cryptic.  At the moment I don’t know how to share this new idea.

Hey Money, have you found a way to share this yet? Interested to hear about your revelation.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 17, 08:27 AM 2019
Kav you are entitled to your opinion. 

This topic clearly isn’t your cup of tea.... why do you continue to drink it?

You already made your case.  Why do you keep coming back? 

I’m pretty sure everyone that has got this far in the topic has read your statement. 

Am I in your topic talking about how it’s trash?  No right?  You know why?  Just by looking at the first post,  I can see the garbage!  But you’re entitled to your belief!  Anyone can go and see if what you’re saying is true and decide!

So why do you make it your daily goal to come talk sh*t about something you don’t know or don’t understand....

You made your point, now move along and play red or black or both.  No one cares  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 17, 08:31 AM 2019
Tell your friend luckyfela to not provoke me and I will leave you to your constructive discussions here. There is so much already discovered in this topic that people are falling to pieces from knowledge overdose. But don't tell me to go away when you keep mentioning my name.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 17, 08:46 AM 2019
Quote from: redhot on Oct 17, 08:20 AM 2019
Hey Money, have you found a way to share this yet? Interested to hear about your revelation.

No not yet.... it won’t make sense.  It will just confuse ppl. I even got confused with it  :o

Basically you can make events happening at same time continuously and consider the whole thing as one event. Sort of like a stitched bet but betting both at the same time.

I couldn’t think of the proper way to use yet so I just put it aside.  In my head it worked different.  On paper the effect wasn’t what I was looking for but it confirms how each bet placed is independent so multiple systems can definitely help with the correct mix.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 17, 08:52 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 17, 08:31 AM 2019
Tell your friend luckyfela to not provoke me and I will leave you to your constructive discussions here. There is so much already discovered in this topic that people are falling to pieces from knowledge overdose. But don't tell me to go away when you keep mentioning my name.

Luckyfella is another poster.  You guys can make a topic and go back and forth directly. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Kav on Oct 17, 08:53 AM 2019
I don't know if "Luckyfella is another poster" but Patrick999 seems to be you...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 17, 09:01 AM 2019
Quote from: Kav on Oct 17, 08:53 AM 2019
I don't know if "Luckyfella is another poster" but Patrick999 seems to be you...
Ppl seriously have nothing better to do...

Who the f*ck is that?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 17, 09:01 AM 2019
You know what I don’t care.  Pointless to defend myself

Believe as you wish
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 18, 01:31 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 15, 01:09 PM 2019So both unpredictable and LLN can be categorized in the same group
:) they are not in the same group. Unpredictable is unpredictable. That’s it. However LLN is how a large sample will behave.  For example no one can predict roulette outcomes. But you can say that LLN on expectation if you keep on flat betting a single number over a very large sample will be house edge. So it is predictable. So both are completely different concepts. In you case, of what you are claiming is true, the way you are winning is not because you have broken the assumption on LLN, but because you have broken the assumption that you cannot win every single session of a fixed length by improving your predictability.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 18, 04:36 PM 2019
Can someone please explain to me, in layman’s terms, what is a dependency as it relates to roulette?

Here’s hoping

BA
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 18, 08:27 PM 2019
Quote from: Blood Angel on Oct 18, 04:36 PM 2019
Can someone please explain to me, in layman’s terms, what is a dependency as it relates to roulette?

Here’s hoping

BA
Example of a dependent betting strategy,

Bet red next spin when it shows 10consecutive reds.


Example of a dependent outcome is IF the probability of red hit next spin after 10consecutive reds is higher than 1/37.

***Dependent outcome is the only way to gain a net positve edge.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 18, 08:36 PM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 18, 08:27 PM 2019
Example of a dependent betting strategy,

Bet red next spin when it shows 10consecutive reds.


Example of a dependent outcome is IF the probability of red hit next spin after 10consecutive reds is higher than 1/37  1/2.

***Dependent outcome is the only way to gain a net positve edge.
If this dependent outcome exist in roulette spins, it can be found by way of math.

No voodoo based betting strategy or voodoo regrouping of spins will work.
People are naturally attracted to exotic stuff.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 18, 11:19 PM 2019
Turbo's latest thread on GF is the best explanation of his betting strategy.

I learnt from him the basics that set me on the path to discover dependent outcome of roulette spins that's based on math.

Ofc I am his fanboy. :love:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 19, 02:49 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 18, 08:27 PM 2019
Example of a dependent betting strategy,

Bet red next spin when it shows 10consecutive reds.


Example of a dependent outcome is IF the probability of red hit next spin after 10consecutive reds is higher than 1/37.

***Dependent outcome is the only way to gain a net positve edge.

Thank you very much for your reply.
BA
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 19, 03:27 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 18, 08:27 PM 2019Example of a dependent outcome is IF the probability of red hit next spin after 10consecutive reds is higher than 1/37.

lucky, the probability of red will always be higher than 1/37. I think you meant 18/37.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 19, 03:38 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 19, 03:27 AM 2019
lucky, the probability of red will always be higher than 1/37. I think you meant 18/37.
Yes, you are correct.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 19, 03:51 AM 2019
Quote from: Blood Angel on Oct 18, 04:36 PM 2019Can someone please explain to me, in layman’s terms, what is a dependency as it relates to roulette?

Here’s hoping

I'll try, because I don't think luckyfella's reply was very helpful. IMO the best way to explain the difference between dependent outcomes and independent outcomes is using a deck of cards, and then relating it to roulette outcomes.

Suppose you draw cards from the deck. There are 52 cards; what's the probability that the card you pick is an Ace? Easy : there are 4 Aces so the chance is 4/52. Having picked a card there are now 2 options : you can 1) either put it back in the deck and re-shuffle, or 2) discard it.

Option 2 creates dependency, option 1 doesn't. If you knew that cards were not returned after being drawn but didn't know what the first card drawn actually was, and someone asked you to calculate the odds of getting another Ace, you would have to say 'It depends on what the first card drawn was'. If the first card drawn was an Ace, then the chance of drawing another Ace would be 3/51 because one Ace has been removed and there are only 51 cards remaining.

However, if the cards had been replaced and the deck shuffled after drawing the first Ace, calculating the chance of another Ace does not depend on the previous result; it's 4/52, just as it was for the first draw.

Roulette is like this (cards replaced after each draw) and the pockets around the wheel correspond to cards. Pockets are not blocked after successive spins, that's why the General keeps saying that the same number of pockets exist between spins, so it doesn't matter what previous spins actually were.  Red after 10 red in row is still 18/37, just as it is after 1 black.

lucky is right to say there must be a dependency to get an edge, but the question is - where does the dependency come from? It obviously doesn't come from the 'non replacement' principle I just explained, so where else?  >:D

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 19, 03:58 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 19, 03:51 AM 2019
I'll try, because I don't think luckyfella's reply was very helpful. IMO the best way to explain the difference between dependent outcomes and independent outcomes is using a deck of cards, and then relating it to roulette outcomes.

Suppose you draw cards from the deck. There are 52 cards; what's the probability that the card you pick is an Ace? Easy : there are 4 Aces so the chance is 4/52. Having picked a card there are now 2 options : you can 1) either put it back in the deck and re-shuffle, or 2) discard it.

Option 2 creates dependency, option 1 doesn't. If you knew that cards were not returned after being drawn but didn't know what the first card drawn actually was, and someone asked you to calculate the odds of getting another Ace, you would have to say 'It depends on what the first card drawn was'. If the first card drawn was an Ace, then the chance of drawing another Ace would be 3/51 because one Ace has been removed and there are only 51 cards remaining.

However, if the cards had been replaced and the deck shuffled after drawing the first Ace, calculating the chance of another Ace does not depend on the previous result; it's 4/52, just as it was for the first draw.

Roulette is like this (cards replaced after each draw) and the pockets around the wheel correspond to cards. Pockets are not blocked after successive spins, that's why the General keeps saying that the same number of pockets exist between spins, so it doesn't matter what previous spins actually were.  Red after 10 red in row is still 18/37, just as it is after 1 black.

lucky is right to say there must be a dependency to get an edge, but the question is - where does the dependency come from? It obviously doesn't come from the 'non replacement' principle I just explained, so where else?  >:D

That’s brilliant Joe, thank you for your reply.

BA
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 19, 04:28 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 19, 03:51 AM 2019It obviously doesn't come from the 'non replacement' principle I just explained, so where else? 
What if we create unique streams of numbers as they come through roulette spins. What if we create a unique stream to trAck every time there is a repeat? Just thinking loud. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 19, 05:42 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 19, 04:28 AM 2019
What if we create unique streams of numbers as they come through roulette spins. What if we create a unique stream to trAck every time there is a repeat? Just thinking loud.
Why repeats ? What unique statistical property that repeats have ? :question:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 19, 05:48 AM 2019
They "look" like a trend. Thats all.

Anyone saying otherwise hasnt properly tested.

Start by considering what countless people smarter than you have done, and consider their findings. Then check for yourself. Move on if they are correct.

Or keep going in circles.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 19, 05:54 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 19, 04:28 AM 2019What if we create unique streams of numbers as they come through roulette spins. What if we create a unique stream to trAck every time there is a repeat? Just thinking loud. 

tin, how does that create a dependency or identify one?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 19, 06:01 AM 2019
We if we start from where others finished, so we didnt need to repeat their wasted time?

What if we started with what is already well known?

Then maybe we could finish in a better place than others who spent their life reinventing the wheel.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 19, 06:06 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 18, 11:19 PM 2019Turbo's latest thread on GF is the best explanation of his betting strategy.

I've read it and it's more confusing than the first thread he made.  His strategy seems to be based on averages playing out in the short term which is a classic error - basically gambler's fallacy.

QuoteNow the naysayer might say "Heck - that last number might not show up for 300 spins !!!!!"
Well, then we wouldn't have an average of 6.3 per number in the winning set - and we
already know that's the case... because our data and bets are always on the set that wins.

(link:s://img.techpowerup.org/191019/tony-stark-shakes-head-iron-man.gif)

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 06:07 AM 2019
I only know 2 types of dependency: same spin and uniques vs. repeats.

1. When there's a unique dozen then there's also a unique number; likewise, when there's a repeat on the numbers then there's a repeat on the dozens = same spin dependency
2. A repeat depends on the uniques that came before. If we are betting for a repeat and we have 123 on the dozens then we can only get a cycle length 3 as CL1-2 is no longer available. On the other hand if we had just 12 then we could get a CL2 or a CL3.

Any other forms of dependency? I don't think so. Priyanka described summing up numbers: if you want the next spin and the last number to add up to 40 then it depends on how close to 20 is the first number. Somebody added up normal lines and positional lines to make 10. I don't find any application though.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 19, 06:11 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 06:07 AM 2019I only know 2 types of dependency: same spin and uniques vs. repeats.

Neither of which are any good for knowing what the next outcome is going to be.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 06:15 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 19, 06:11 AM 2019
Neither of which are any good for knowing what the next outcome is going to be.
Like I said if you have 123 next spin has to be CL3 and cannot be CL1-2, so at that point you can be sure of the next outcome. Similarly if just 12 then next outcome cannot be CL1, so there's some kind of predictability/dependency re: the next outcome, but I don't find any application.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 19, 06:37 AM 2019
What about unique repeats?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 19, 06:47 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 19, 05:54 AM 2019tin, how does that create a dependency or identify one?
Steve, let this continue. We all know what you are saying and you don’t have to save us from losing our life savings on something we don’t know. Sometimes shaking up basics and believing blindly doesn’t help. We are currently having a discussion and first thing that we established that even math people cannot refuse is we cannot prove that there are no dependent streams in roulette.  So something that cannot be proven cannot be ignored. 

Joe and Lucky, I was just thinking loud to Joe’s question of explaining the non replacement principle. I was trying out things to see whether we can replicate the same card experiment. That’s all. I can’t see it creating any dependence though.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 19, 06:49 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 06:15 AM 2019the next outcome, but I don't find any application
That is exactly the problem always - APPLICATION.  Most of the things fail in roulette because we can’t get it to application stage because every time the ball is spinning every number in the wheel is equally likely.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 19, 06:52 AM 2019
Quote from: Joe on Oct 19, 06:06 AM 2019
I've read it and it's more confusing than the first thread he made.  His strategy seems to be based on averages playing out in the short term which is a classic error - basically gambler's fallacy.
His current model has statistical flaws.

However, such averages is worth exploring within the confines of math rules.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 06:53 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 19, 06:49 AM 2019
That is exactly the problem always - APPLICATION.  Most of the things fail in roulette because we can’t get it to application stage because every time the ball is spinning every number in the wheel is equally likely.
Not everything is equally-likely though. Double dozens has more chance than single dozens, but because of risk/reward ratio there's no edge/application, so the problem with roulette might be more to do with variance and table limits.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 19, 06:55 AM 2019
Turbo quite clearly revealed his system, to anyone paying attention. I even laid it all, and the difference would only be trivial rules. The problem is it doesn't work. I explained why. Anyone wanting the truth need only read the whole @turbo thread carefully.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 19, 07:05 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 06:53 AM 2019Double dozens has more chance than single dozens,

Define double dozens and single dozens. And please prove why one is more likely.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 07:12 AM 2019
Quote from: Steve on Oct 19, 07:05 AM 2019
Define double dozens and single dozens. And please prove why one is more likely.
It's nothing cryptic. Double dozens (1-2) is 66% vs. 33% for single dozens (3) so of course the former has more chance of appearing compared to the latter. Therefore, the problem isn't one of "not equally-likely", but that 2 dozens costs two units and 1 dozen only costs a single unit with a proportionate risk/reward.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 19, 07:26 AM 2019
2 is bigger than 1. How does that help?

If something doesnt increase accuracy of predictions to be better than random, its useless. Reality often sucks. But it's reality. We cant change it.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 19, 07:50 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 06:15 AM 2019Like I said if you have 123 next spin has to be CL3 and cannot be CL1-2, so at that point you can be sure of the next outcome.

I haven't followed your posts so don't know what CL1 or CL1-2 means, but how can you be sure of the next outcome when all numbers are equally likely?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 19, 07:58 AM 2019
Falkor seems to have his own language. He can post pages of text, but nobody except him has any clue what he's talking about.

Not to offend you falkor, but you need to be clear for effective communication.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 19, 08:07 AM 2019
Quote from: Steve on Oct 19, 07:58 AM 2019but nobody except him has any clue what he's talking about
The other way round, it's totally clear for readers.
Sideattackers will fail to understand.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 19, 08:13 AM 2019
Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Oct 19, 06:49 AM 2019every time the ball is spinning every number in the wheel is equally likely
This is fundamental true for a fair wheel.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 19, 08:14 AM 2019
Herby I dont doubt most people are unfamiliar with falkors terms exclusive to him. Only he uses particular terms.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 19, 08:17 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 06:15 AM 2019Like I said if you have 123 next spin has to be CL3 and cannot be CL1-2, so at that point you can be sure of the next outcome.
For followers: this is trivial and worthless for predictions.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 08:39 AM 2019
Quote from: Steve on Oct 19, 07:58 AM 2019
Falkor seems to have his own language. He can post pages of text, but nobody except him has any clue what he's talking about.

Not to offend you falkor, but you need to be clear for effective communication.
No everyone that has been studying cycles pretty much understands him
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 19, 08:43 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 08:39 AM 2019
No everyone that has been studying cycles pretty much understands him

Another contradiction.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 02:22 PM 2019
Falkor isn’t the person for rhetorical questions.  He doesn’t understand....

Please don’t give him anymore direct ideas that were  already shared indirectly.

His mission is to find a winning bet an post it in the forum... keep this mind when giving falkor ideas
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 08:58 AM 2019
Any prediction of the next spin will fail

Joe, very nice breakdown on the 52 cards.

What if instead of taking the ace and putting it back in deck you put the ace across on the table and now you have a deck of 51 cards and a deck of 1 card.

Now you put a blind fold on and spin the table and place your hand on either deck.  Your chances of pulling an ace are still 4/52. 

But what are your chances of pulling the ace in the deck of 51 and the ace in the deck of 1? 

I shouldn’t have to tell you cause your a math expert but it’s 1/2.  Half the time I will pick the deck full of repeats or the deck full of uniques.

Now the real question is...if I did this same thing while playing roulette.  Is it the same effect? 

Keep in mind in my deck example the cards are always  4/52 for aces just like in roulette 1/37.  Nothing has changed...

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 09:02 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 19, 08:43 AM 2019
Another contradiction.

If you read my post I state my reason for not sharing ideas.  Not that I don’t understand his cycle talk!

Keep worrying about contradiction 😂, clearly you have trouble reading.  Maybe that’s why redd and pri gave up on you
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 19, 09:14 AM 2019
I’m not worried about a thing. I know who I am and I clearly know who you are and why no one talks to you in the first place. 

Btw for anyone following, the answer to Money Mels earlier question - I am one Of many who gave him information while he struggled. 

Now, why again is he posting?


Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 19, 09:16 AM 2019
You’ve all been warned. 

It’s no longer my problem.   

Good luck with the chase Mel.  And thank you for loading my luggage ;)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 09:18 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 19, 09:14 AM 2019
I’m not worried about a thing. I know who I am and I clearly know who you are and why no one talks to you in the first place. 

Btw for anyone following, the answer to Money Mels earlier question - I am one Of many who gave him information while he struggled. 

Now, why again is he posting?

What you shared made me struggle more.  Now what you didn’t share with me but I got from others helped  :thumbsup:

So  guess thank you in a way...

Also admit you just shared with ppl to get information.  It wasn’t out of the goodness of your heart.  That’s why you sit there trying to make it seem like I’m doing that.  Not everyone is like you Jon 🤪
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 19, 09:25 AM 2019
I shared to f'ing help people.  You haven't got a clue. 

YOU have helped NO ONE. 

I believe you're referring to MATT's information that was abused by you, as well.  Keep acting like I don't have what you do - nor do I care.

We can agree to disagree - I learned that cop out from you.

What a toxic place - the old soul was right.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blueprint on Oct 19, 09:26 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 19, 09:25 AM 2019
I shared to f'ing help people.  You haven't got a clue. 

YOU have helped NO ONE. 

I believe you're referring to MATT's information that was abused by you, as well.  Keep acting like I don't have what you do - nor do I care.

We can agree to disagree - I learned that cop out from you.

What a toxic place - the old soul was right.

There are very few people here I hold in high regard (priyanka and redd are NOT one of them)... so, my time is up.  I value their relationships more than this place so I'm out.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 19, 09:57 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 08:58 AM 2019cause your a math expert
The only math expert was Bayes.
Firefox was not too bad.
Then I see just guys tryin to be the math top dog .
Of course only my opinion as a non math expert.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 19, 10:00 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 19, 09:25 AM 2019What a toxic place - the old soul was right.
Greedy for money can only be a very very young soul.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 10:04 AM 2019
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 19, 09:25 AM 2019
I shared to f'ing help people.  You haven't got a clue. 

YOU have helped NO ONE. 

I believe you're referring to MATT's information that was abused by you, as well.  Keep acting like I don't have what you do - nor do I care.

We can agree to disagree - I learned that cop out from you.

What a toxic place - the old soul was right.
😂😂😂
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 10:05 AM 2019
Just leave me alone in the forum... I leave you alone.  Stop coming at me every chance you get.  Past is the past
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 19, 10:32 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 19, 10:00 AM 2019
Greedy for money can only be a very very young soul.
Wise words. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Joe on Oct 19, 12:01 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 19, 08:58 AM 2019What if instead of taking the ace and putting it back in deck you put the ace across on the table and now you have a deck of 51 cards and a deck of 1 card.

Now you put a blind fold on and spin the table and place your hand on either deck.  Your chances of pulling an ace are still 4/52. 

No, this is way off. As you mention in the next part of your post, the chance of selecting either pile is 1/2. There are two ways you can get an Ace : either by first picking the 'pile' with 1 card (with probability of an Ace = 100%) or by picking the other pile (probability of an Ace = 3/51). Therefore either by using a tree diagram or the law of total probability, the chance of an Ace is

P(A) = 1/2 * 1 + 1/2 * 3/51 = 9/17.

QuoteNow the real question is...if I did this same thing while playing roulette.  Is it the same effect? 

How can you do the same thing in roulette? The physical setup is completely different.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 04:59 PM 2019
Quiz question: what is the opposite to dozen 1 repeating too many times:

11
11
11
11
121
1231
11
11
131
11
11
...

?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: wiggy on Oct 19, 06:13 PM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 04:59 PM 2019
Quiz question: what is the opposite to dozen 1 repeating too many times:


Maybe something like this????

11
2132
313
22
1231
33
212
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 08:35 PM 2019
Quote from: wiggy on Oct 19, 06:13 PM 2019
Maybe something like this????

11
2132
313
22
1231
33
212
Anyone else.....?

Here's another example of dependency that's fresh from my supercomputer this evening:

In order to avoid a deadlock on the Streets and finish CL1 to CL11 - would potentially boost us further along an open number cycle - any of the following need to be true:
Half CL1 - between 6 and 13
OR
Dozen CL1 - between 4 and 8
OR
Dozen CL2 - between 5 and 6
OR
Line CL1 - between 1 and 6
OR
Line CL2 - between 2 and 6
OR
Line CL3 - between 2 and 4

If you don't start to rack up early repeats on any of those lesser groups then it's not worth parachuting to the Street cycle - and in turn the number cycle - till closure.

Street cycle spin 12 and Number cycle spin 25 are more important than Petra and Mecca! They mark important keyframes on the only 2 guaranteed events that I know of, which we could use to exploit the game without any "edge" as we know it - thanks to the carpet layout more than anything - doesn't matter which direction you pray! :)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 19, 11:41 PM 2019
What is the math meaning behind cycles ?
Example 11
1.          2.          3
x
x

Example 121
1.          2.          3
x.          x
x

Example 1231
1.           2.          3
x.           x.          x
x
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 20, 03:55 AM 2019
The same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, so why should the probability of winning change?  .......DSAA

That's a fair comment and question.

I don't have the answer.
Makes me think why. :question:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Oct 20, 04:03 AM 2019
Because, you know.. lines gotta cross, repeats gotta happen. Stuff like that.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 04:28 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 20, 03:55 AM 2019why should the probability of winning change?
If you have a fair wheel the probability of winning doesn't change?

Saying different is misleading and should be banned !
So who was the last one to say so ?  >:D
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 04:33 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 08:35 PM 2019Number cycle spin 25 are more important than Petra and Mecca!

Petra and Mocca are more important than Number cycle spin 25.

Number cycle spin 26 will come in when it hurts you most.
The devil never sleeps.  >:D
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 04:45 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 19, 08:35 PM 2019any of the following need to be true:
Half CL1 - between 6 and 13
Half CL1 - between 6 and 13 never can be true.

So you have a piece of program that never can be reached.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 05:36 AM 2019
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 20, 03:55 AM 2019
The same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, so why should the probability of winning change?  .......DSAA

That's a fair comment and question.

I don't have the answer.
Makes me think why. :question:
I think we can guarantee a win in 5 spins! I am going to run a test today/tomorrow to find out EXACTLY what conditions are needed to guarantee a repeat on the lines within 5 spins. It would mean losing a few chips for a number of cycles - or just watching - and then when the right moment comes you can bet 1000!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 05:41 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 04:45 AM 2019
Half CL1 - between 6 and 13 never can be true.

So you have a piece of program that never can be reached.
Yeah, it's actually the proceeding group (lines) that is more likely to be a trigger. I think is much higher than 5-10%, which is what Dozen CL1 conditions must satisfy to guarantee a repeat on the lines, respectively. However, I am going to delve deeper on the first 5 spins in my next test to see if we can find a trigger above 5-10%.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 06:21 AM 2019
I think I see what you are trying.
If I'm right so my program about this topic half way ready, program runs but no statistics.
Arising problem: "conditional probability". (Bayes) -> probabilities don't change
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 06:43 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 06:21 AM 2019
I think I see what you are trying.
If I'm right so my program about this topic half way ready, program runs but no statistics.
Arising problem: "conditional probability". (Bayes) -> probabilities don't change
It's the same reason why a number cycle closes by spin 25 and we NEVER see 36 unique numbers - now just in microcosm on the lines and streets.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 07:02 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 06:43 AM 2019a number cycle closes by spin 25 and we NEVER see 36 unique numbers
Probability of the first repeat of any shown number (in %)

{{1,2.7027},{2,5.25931},{3,7.46254},{4,9.14329},
{5,10.1935},{6,10.5792},{7,10.341},{8,9.58236},
{9,8.44931},{10,7.10453},{11,5.70282},{12,4.3717},
{13,3.2},{14,2.23535},{15,1.48879},{16,0.944243},
{17,0.569417},{18,0.325898},{19,0.176651},{20,0.0904612},
{21,0.0436414},{22,0.0197706},{23,0.00837944},{24,0.00330845},
{25,0.00121086},{26,0.000408421},{27,0.000126093},{28,0.0000353412},{29,8.90354×10-6},{30,1.99147×10-6},{31,3.89324×10-7},
{32,6.51701×10-8},{33,9.08199×10-9},{34,1.01159×10-9},
{35,8.44331×10-11},{36,4.69435×10-12}}
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 07:06 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 06:43 AM 2019It's the same reason why a number cycle closes by spin 25 and we NEVER see 36 unique numbers - now just in microcosm on the lines and streets.
You might NEVER see 36 unique numbers - there is a good chance to see 12 streets.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: luckyfella on Oct 20, 07:14 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 04:28 AM 2019
If you have a fair wheel the probability of winning doesn't change?

Saying different is misleading and should be banned !
So who was the last one to say so ?  >:D
This is my explanation.

Although the probability of hitting the pocket does not change but the actual spins have positive and negative variance measured against this probability.

Here is the contoversial claim I make since I returned to this forum.

I am proposing that using applied statistical techniques I can predict this variance accurately.

Read my earlier post that clearly stated that for math based systems betting method, it must be able to predict variance for the bet to increase accuracy.

I use a similar tesla369 concept to pick the specific pockets for betselection and place bets in a determined time frequency.

I am full aware this sounds outright ludicrous but yes that's what I have found. Two elements of right pockets and right timing.

Now anyone can chose to call me liar, attention seeker, personality disorder, mistake, uneducated, deluded, scammer.

I take this risk to make this post expecting the rocks thrown at me.
Carry on.

Note - for those who know me, this is where I am at now. I have to walk away to focus on my own things steeped in math. I made all these posts just for you, read them. Guys, this is the ONLY path to the solution.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 07:19 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 04:28 AM 2019If you have a fair wheel the probability of winning doesn't change?

Saying different is misleading and should be banned !
So who was the last one to say so ?  >:D
This was my joking answer to the previous joking answer above from ... who was it ?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 08:59 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 07:06 AM 2019
You might NEVER see 36 unique numbers - there is a good chance to see 12 streets.
Just not when there's several CL1-3 repeats on the lines during an open street cycle due to dependency and the same phenomenon behind the number repeat, hence the significance of my post about avoiding 12 streets...
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 09:11 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 07:02 AM 2019
Probability of the first repeat of any shown number (in %)

{{1,2.7027},{2,5.25931},{3,7.46254},{4,9.14329},
{5,10.1935},{6,10.5792},{7,10.341},{8,9.58236},
{9,8.44931},{10,7.10453},{11,5.70282},{12,4.3717},
{13,3.2},{14,2.23535},{15,1.48879},{16,0.944243},
{17,0.569417},{18,0.325898},{19,0.176651},{20,0.0904612},
{21,0.0436414},{22,0.0197706},{23,0.00837944},{24,0.00330845},
{25,0.00121086},{26,0.000408421},{27,0.000126093},{28,0.0000353412},{29,8.90354×10-6},{30,1.99147×10-6},{31,3.89324×10-7},
{32,6.51701×10-8},{33,9.08199×10-9},{34,1.01159×10-9},
{35,8.44331×10-11},{36,4.69435×10-12}}
You can round it off to zero because - even if you live to 100 - you won't ever see beyond 25 unique numbers under normal re-tracking rules. Your information is theory; mine is practical. The same can be said for avoiding 12 streets and - soon - avoiding 6 lines.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 20, 09:33 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 05:36 AM 2019
I think we can guarantee a win in 5 spins! I am going to run a test today/tomorrow to find out EXACTLY what conditions are needed to guarantee a repeat on the lines within 5 spins. It would mean losing a few chips for a number of cycles - or just watching - and then when the right moment comes you can bet 1000!

I do personally believe something similar to this exist  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 10:19 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 09:11 AM 2019You can round it off to zero because
If there is a probability > 0 the event will happen ( don't know when, but it happens) , maybe not to me but to you.

On board there a 1000 guests, each of them play every day 10 number cycles for one year.
How many see a Number Cyclelength >25 ?
I asure you, you will be one of them ... ( joke)
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 10:27 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 20, 09:33 AM 2019I do personally believe something similar to this exist
You believe or you know ?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Oct 20, 10:41 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 10:27 AM 2019
You believe or you know ?

No just like I said.  I believe!

I didn’t find the proper way to put it together.  So I created another way to play.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 20, 10:58 AM 2019
Thanks for answering.
I asked because somebody already formulated here the possible solution to this problem, not too long time ago.
I forgot who, when and what excactly, so maybe I'm wrong.

For the wannabe mathematicians (real mathematicians are not to be found on a roulette board):
No, the probabilities don't change !  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 20, 11:13 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 06:43 AM 2019
It's the same reason why a number cycle closes by spin 25 and we NEVER see 36 unique numbers - now just in microcosm on the lines and streets.

What is that reason falkor2k15?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 11:24 AM 2019
Quote from: Blood Angel on Oct 20, 11:13 AM 2019
What is that reason falkor2k15?
I don't know exactly, but it took me a long time to find out how the dependency works following my "permutation of desolation" topic, so now we know it's mostly the preceding group together with quicker cycle lengths that we can use as a trigger to guarantee the avoidance of deadlocks (at least within our lifetime - and without 999 other players). But that's only half the discovery; the other half is that we get a free booster in avoiding the next deadlock on the next group. In other words: if we get to bet 1000 - we might be able to get 2 similar opportunities after nested parachuting = 3 guaranteed wins in 20 spins.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 20, 11:32 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 11:24 AM 2019
I don't know exactly, but it took me a long time to find out how the dependency works following my "permutation of desolation" topic, so now we know it's mostly the preceding group together with quicker cycle lengths that we can use as a trigger to guarantee the avoidance of deadlocks (at least within our lifetime - and without 999 other players). But that's only half the discovery; the other half is that we get a free booster in avoiding the next deadlock on the next group. In other words: if we get to bet 1000 - we might be able to get 2 similar opportunities after nested parachuting = 3 guaranteed wins in 20 spins.

Thank you for the reply, I’m not sure I 100% understand it all but I appreciate it nonetheless
BA
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Tinsoldiers on Oct 20, 12:53 PM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 10:58 AM 2019No, the probabilities don't change ! 
Well said, my friend.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 01:51 PM 2019
The results are now in!!! :) How to use this forum as a live chat...?

I've simulated line cycles over 1 million spins and recorded the results on preceding cycle(s) 1 spin before the line cycle closed. This is as accurate as it gets.

You need to buy Christmas Holiday gifts this year too right?

Stay tuned... copying and pasting into Excel right now innit... I also plan to run this a 2nd time with more information and possibly other custom streams.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Oct 21, 04:42 AM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 01:51 PM 2019results on preceding cycle(s) 1 spin before the line cycle closed
A question for better understanding:
preceding : dozens cycle(s) / high-low cycle(s) !?!

"1 spin before the line cycle closed": you want to prognose the end of the line cycle from the statistics of the quick cycles ?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Oct 25, 12:57 PM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 01:51 PM 2019
The results are now in!!! :) How to use this forum as a live chat...?

I've simulated line cycles over 1 million spins and recorded the results on preceding cycle(s) 1 spin before the line cycle closed. This is as accurate as it gets.

You need to buy Christmas Holiday gifts this year too right?

Stay tuned... copying and pasting into Excel right now innit... I also plan to run this a 2nd time with more information and possibly other custom streams.

Hi,
Anything further you can reveal mate?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Nov 22, 10:09 PM 2019
It’s been a few weeks since I last posted... hope everyone has been doing well. 
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Nov 22, 11:05 PM 2019
The holy grail!  It’s an ongoing topic here and everywhere.

Many believe they have found it.  Many are searching for it. 

But does it exist?
If it existed what would it look like?
How many players have found it?  :-X

Is it a myth/theory/idea/fact?
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Nov 22, 11:15 PM 2019
Quote from: falkor2k15 on Oct 20, 05:36 AM 2019
I think we can guarantee a win in 5 spins! I am going to run a test today/tomorrow to find out EXACTLY what conditions are needed to guarantee a repeat on the lines within 5 spins. It would mean losing a few chips for a number of cycles - or just watching - and then when the right moment comes you can bet 1000!

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 20, 09:33 AM 2019
I do personally believe something similar to this exist  :thumbsup:

Quote from: Herby on Oct 20, 10:27 AM 2019
You believe or you know ?

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 20, 10:41 AM 2019
No just like I said.  I believe!

I didn’t find the proper way to put it together.  So I created another way to play.

Herby, I officially know
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Elite on Nov 23, 04:53 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Nov 22, 11:05 PM 2019
The holy grail!  It’s an ongoing topic here and everywhere.

Many believe they have found it.  Many are searching for it. 

But does it exist?
If it existed what would it look like?
How many players have found it?  :-X

Is it a myth/theory/idea/fact?

My view is holy grail of roulette means which events must occur,,,  based in that, bets are placed, some theories says it's related with repeater.HolyGrail Term means , Tracking path of  a full cycle  .. There are 3  states a cycle can be,  either less repeates,,  or more repeats  balance cycle,,, usually a cycle becomes balance  after  37  spins,,,, and mostly a balance cycle is output,,,  this system is criticise by,  that counting numbers not gives accuracy,,  so it cannot work,,, but this system player says they improve accuracy,  because they know certain events will must occur,,  example, a repeat,,,  my view only
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Person S on Nov 23, 06:59 AM 2019
Sometimes an illusion is created that this is so, but after a while the schedule decreases, and you understand that it is not him.
Pry recommended the movie Prestige.
And it has a good phrase: “some components are not enough - there should be a trick that will allow you to reproduce the focus.”
I think TRICK is what we are looking for.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Martin369 on Nov 24, 02:16 AM 2019
Hello my brothers and sisters, my gamblers and scammers.
Im just gona drop somthing here how i play colors. IF you want it, take it, if you like it, and it will work for you, you can decide if you will send me some cash for it or not its on you. Have FUN! :D (Money is never too much)

If this nummbers comes you bet RED -          2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 17. 18. 20. 22. 24. 27. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35
If this nummbers comes you bet BLACK -     1. 3. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 29. 31. 33. 36

It gouse trought big Red Lines and Big Black lines easy. Biggest missed streak was 11 times.
I like to experiment with this nummbers, sometimes i play them Positive and Negative,  Positive means, if for example nummber 32 comes in, and im starting from positive that means its jumps to black collor, after that positive move i play negative move, and it means, i stay on that collor what nummber came in, after that move i play again positive, and sometimes its really fun coz you go in some really big streaks, hitting everysingle color in every spin. One time i tryed to play at Evelution gaming american Roulette, there was a hilarious situation, i started to hit every color for some time, and i felt like, what the evelution gaming site will do about it, and then after some time, came zeros like very MUCH zeros, never saw them soo much in my life :D so yea, that was funy. So GL guys,  I recommend this methode at european roulette.

PM me for more queastions
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Roulettebeater on Nov 24, 04:35 AM 2019
Quote from: Martin369 on Nov 24, 02:16 AM 2019
Hello my brothers and sisters, my gamblers and scammers.
Im just gona drop somthing here how i play colors. IF you want it, take it, if you like it, and it will work for you, you can decide if you will send me some cash for it or not its on you. Have FUN! :D (Money is never too much)

If this nummbers comes you bet RED -          2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 17. 18. 20. 22. 24. 27. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35
If this nummbers comes you bet BLACK -     1. 3. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 29. 31. 33. 36

It gouse trought big Red Lines and Big Black lines easy. Biggest missed streak was 11 times.
I like to experiment with this nummbers, sometimes i play them Positive and Negative,  Positive means, if for example nummber 32 comes in, and im starting from positive that means its jumps to black collor, after that positive move i play negative move, and it means, i stay on that collor what nummber came in, after that move i play again positive, and sometimes its really fun coz you go in some really big streaks, hitting everysingle color in every spin. One time i tryed to play at Evelution gaming american Roulette, there was a hilarious situation, i started to hit every color for some time, and i felt like, what the evelution gaming site will do about it, and then after some time, came zeros like very MUCH zeros, never saw them soo much in my life :D so yea, that was funy. So GL guys,  I recommend this methode at european roulette.

PM me for more queastions

lets get ignatus develop this logic and run a stress test!

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Nov 24, 03:58 PM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Nov 22, 11:05 PM 2019But does it exist?
If it existed what would it look like?  My simplest answer is that the result should be 100% predictable and a profit must be guaranteed in let's say 30 spins.
How many players have found it?  :-X  Impossible to tell, as most readers never post on the forum. From "recently" active members I'd say only Pri, Redd, and perhaps you? But you said you don't play so who knows  :)

Is it a myth/theory/idea/fact? To me the HG is still a theory. But I wholeheartedly believe in its existence.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Nov 22, 11:15 PM 2019Herby, I officially know

Does that mean you can guarantee a profit in 5 spins?

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Nov 24, 04:55 PM 2019
All this time I was convinced that in order to win, we must bet every single spin. The posts I have quoted on the 5th page strongly suggest that. But now I'm starting to believe it may not be essential. See the below quote from Pri

QuoteThere are multiple ways I use my concepts. One is continuous betting where the win rate staggers around 1.3 to 1.4. One is betting selectively

To me betting selectively sounds a bit like waiting for a trigger and targeting one or two spins. That's something we were told would not work, but I'm looking into it.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: anadenanthera on Nov 25, 01:32 AM 2019
Quote from: ati on Nov 24, 04:55 PM 2019
All this time I was convinced that in order to win, we must bet every single spin. The posts I have quoted on the 5th page strongly suggest that. But now I'm starting to believe it may not be essential. See the below quote from Pri

To me betting selectively sounds a bit like waiting for a trigger and targeting one or two spins. That's something we were told would not work, but I'm looking into it.

From a probability standpoint there is no difference between betting every spin and walking away after every spin and betting once per hour.

That is, unless you are clocking the wheel and looking for bias, then it does matter.

For any other approach, the probability of an event never changes. Bet every spin, bet once per day, the results will be within a few standard deviations in almost all cases over time.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Martin369 on Nov 26, 06:48 AM 2019
Quote from: Roulettebeater on Nov 24, 04:35 AM 2019
lets get ignatus develop this logic and run a stress test!

Hello Roulettebeater, can You tell me what you mean about Ignatus, Is it a Guy who runs tests on strategys? I wuld love to see results from it, and i have more ideas how we can make money. Now im playing Codex369 but with just 4 to 8 bets and its gouse very nice thats why im sharing this colors methode that i played before.  Maby you know a guy who can make a programm that counts nr and place bets? Is it even possible to build somthing like that? I have an idea and i wuld love to shear with someone who is intrested to build a moneymachine.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Herby on Nov 26, 07:05 AM 2019
Quote from: Martin369 on Nov 26, 06:48 AM 2019can make a programm that counts nr and place bets? Is it even possible to build somthing like that?
Hi Martin,
member "webstars" seems to be the best for your needs.
I buildt a program for one betting site from scratch, its a hell of work if one begins at zero level.

Testing with other programming : pm
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Martin369 on Nov 26, 07:29 AM 2019
Quote from: Herby on Nov 26, 07:05 AM 2019
Hi Martin,
member "webstars" seems to be the best for your needs.
I buildt a program for one betting site from scratch, its a hell of work if one begins at zero level.

Testing with other programming : pm

Thanks Herby for info.  :thumbsup:

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Dec 29, 12:08 AM 2019
Quote from: ati on Nov 24, 03:58 PM 2019
Does that mean you can guarantee a profit in 5 spins?

I figured out how to do it using a stitched bet.  It used double street cycles vs stitched dozen/double street cycles.  By adjusting the units to your stitched bet you can create a situation to lose less on cycles but still always win the same amount on a win.

But it gets very confusing once we get a lot of repeats.  So I put it aside cause I can’t play that live.

I like creating my methods based on making sure by the end of a cycle I’m in profit and simple enough where I can use pen and paper and make quick decisions.

The best method I created is the one I spoke about in this thread early on.  Yes it uses a progression +1 progressively based on  loss recovery and win amount to end at +1.

I’ve played it live and it’s doing good... longest spins I played before a win was about 14-16.  Had to go to step 4 of the progression which is 4 units.  So nothing crazy.  I’ve tested a lot on rx as well.  The way I created the method is like a mirror if I have 6 events I found a way to double them to 12.  Payout for each event stays the same but now I have more events so I made it harder to get all the events to happen before I win.

Goes back to the same idea about not getting all 37 unique numbers in 37 spins... imagine getting 74 unique numbers in 74 spins.

I’m looking into the parachute progression because I think it will be perfect with better results.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: MoneyT101 on Dec 29, 12:16 AM 2019
Quote from: ati on Nov 24, 04:55 PM 2019
All this time I was convinced that in order to win, we must bet every single spin. The posts I have quoted on the 5th page strongly suggest that. But now I'm starting to believe it may not be essential. See the below quote from Pri

To me betting selectively sounds a bit like waiting for a trigger and targeting one or two spins. That's something we were told would not work, but I'm looking into it.

The problem I’ve had with everything we learned is that we had to many things and concepts everywhere.  Don’t get caught up in what was being taught...  use it to improve or get better understanding but create your own style.

Use logical steps based on what you learned but just find a way to win. 

You don’t have to follow cycles based on what you learned.

You can have a cycle of something end and decide to close the cycle your tracking. 

Rules aren’t written in stone.  You can make your own rules

Just Win!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Dec 29, 07:38 AM 2019
It's nice to hear it's working for you.  :thumbsup:

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Dec 29, 12:08 AM 2019
Goes back to the same idea about not getting all 37 unique numbers in 37 spins... imagine getting 74 unique numbers in 74 spins.

Yesterday I was trying how I could make use of 72 numbers by stitching together high/low and straight numbers.
QuoteCould a reduced / increased number set assist you ?
I was also thinking how would it be possible to reduce the number sets, but I just couldn't find a way. Have less than 37 numbers with the same pay out? That'd be nice.  :)

Increasing the numbers can be done easily in many different ways, but I could never make use of them. Instead it can make things worse.
For example the way Priyanka shows in the Birthday paradox (link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=18407.msg171081#msg171081) topic to stitch together EC and dozen we get 6 different outcomes (events), but the bet is always on dozens and only the events are stitched the bets are not. So 6 outcomes with 2 to 1 pay out is not that great. I wish Pri or rrbb was still around, I would have so many questions now.
I think I understand the most important concepts see the logic behind them, and I'm just one step away from beating the game, but I'm stuck. Maybe my problem is related to the bet sizes. I'm not sure how flat is a flat bet winning system. I never change my stake amounts, but maybe I should increase it based on the likelihood of the event I'm betting for...? But at the same time I try not to bet for one particular event. As every spin is a new event and within the cycles each outcome has a certain probability to happen based on the statistical constants that were shown to us.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Dec 29, 07:56 AM 2019
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Dec 29, 12:16 AM 2019The problem I’ve had with everything we learned is that we had to many things and concepts everywhere.
That's true. For so long I was trying to include all the concepts into one system, but it never worked. There were contradictions, and of course I didn't understand many of the concepts. Some I still don't. Now I'm trying a selective approach to see which one would fit into the system I'm trying to create.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Dec 29, 12:16 AM 2019You don’t have to follow cycles based on what you learned.
I often think about this, and doing tests to see what if I re-track every time a cycle ends with a repeat. Unfortunately I can only do this manually, so don't have enough data to be certain. The cycle length repeats seem favorable, but the connection between the start and the end doesn't seem to be there.

Quote from: MoneyT101 on Dec 29, 12:16 AM 2019Rules aren’t written in stone.  You can make your own rules
I'm trying, but I'm far less intelligent and creative than Pri and rrbb, so I'm stuck with using their ideas and examples.  :embarrassed:
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Blood Angel on Dec 30, 08:52 AM 2019
Quote from: ati on Dec 29, 07:56 AM 2019
I'm trying, but I'm far less intelligent and creative than Pri and rrbb, so I'm stuck with using their ideas and examples.  :embarrassed:

I feel your pain Ati!
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Dec 30, 11:18 PM 2019
Quote from: ati on Dec 29, 07:38 AM 2019Maybe my problem is related to the bet sizes.
For some reason i can't quote posts from Random Thoughts...
Not sure if this one can help but something to think about......

"Can you predict the next dozen? If I bet on the negative, the odds will be better than what i will get from playing roulette. However, what we can say for sure is there will be at least 1 repeat of a dozen in 4 spins. "
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Dec 31, 06:03 AM 2019
That quote just explains that the odds of the next spin never changes, but the game is much more than the next spin. If you can tell with better than random accuracy what will happen or will not happen in the next 5 or 10 spins, then the odds of the next spin and the unfair payout don't matter.

Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Proofreaders2000 on Dec 31, 07:02 AM 2019
I still believe in Law of the Third.

Atlantis had this idea.  If you have four separate
unique doublestreets hit in a row to bet those four once.

I don't know the hit-rate, but it sounds good imo.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: ati on Dec 31, 07:21 AM 2019
Unfortunately that is no different from random betting. I have just tested 95K spins, there were 26493 triggers, 17561 bets won 2 units the rest lost 4 units.
We need constants to work with and rely on, and only number cycles can provide us with more or less constant statistics.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Dec 31, 07:38 AM 2019
Quote from: ati on Dec 31, 06:03 AM 2019That quote just explains that the odds of the next spin never changes
Does it though??
I know everyones interpretations are different...
But Pry also said things like "without getting into the complexities of MM"
What does that tell you?
I don't know.... Maybe even start with checking out what it means to take negative odds
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: mickavelli on Dec 31, 06:59 PM 2019
..
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: The General on Dec 31, 07:47 PM 2019
Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on Dec 31, 07:02 AM 2019
I still believe in Law of the Third.

Atlantis had this idea.  If you have four separate
unique doublestreets hit in a row to bet those four once.

I don't know the hit-rate, but it sounds good imo.


The law of the third is about as useful at predicting future spins as the law of even chances is at predicting future spins.  In other words, it can't predict anything.  As a matter of fact, if you add up the results of the law of the third distribution you will still find that the total amount bet still comes up short what's needed to just break even.  The distribution demonstrates that the house payout is short!

The law of the third doesn't tell you what is more likely to hit over the next series of spins.  Binomial distribution merely demonstrate the most likely way a random group of numbers will be distributed over a series of spins.  A better use of the law of third would be to use it as a "goodness of fit" test. For example if you know the what the normal distribution of a group of numbers is over a series of spins you could measure how much future samples deviate from the expectation.  It would be a crude kind of chi square test.  (A chi square test is still better).  Unfortunately everyone here on this forum is using it the wrong way.    It all reminds me of a scene from "Zoolander" where they're trying to smash the monitor to get information from inside the computer.    (link:s://thumbs.gfycat.com/DecisiveCarefreeIceblueredtopzebra-small.gif)





Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Dec 31, 08:30 PM 2019
Careful not to offend anyone caleb. People take it personally when you say earth is not flat.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Proofreaders2000 on Jan 06, 02:58 AM 2020
Lesson learned General, Steve. 
(The Earth is getting rounder everyday)

Ok, another grand proposition:

According to TurboGenius, this pattern:
E, O, O, O, O *E* should be a "Even-chances Grail"

When there are four consecutive even-chances, more
often than not, the opposite will appear in the next outcome.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Steve on Jan 06, 03:42 AM 2020
Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on Jan 06, 02:58 AM 2020
When there are four consecutive even-chances, more
often than not, the opposite will appear in the next outcome.

Turbo is utterly full of shit.

Whenever he makes a claim that's defined with enough clarity, testing easily debunks his crap.

Very rarely does he make sufficiently clear statements. He's almost always deliberately vague, leaving many parts open ended. So you need to test multiple interpretations. However, every interpretation and version of his nonsense is dead wrong.

I gave turbo ample opportunities to prove his theories and claims. In the end he was evasive to clear questions, and dead wrong about even the basics.

I said it from the beginning. Turbo is like a cancer. Just an attention seeking troll. An increasing amount of people are understanding what more experienced members knew earlier.
Title: Re: Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas
Post by: Elite on Jan 06, 08:46 AM 2020
Agree ,Steve, probability based or  number based system cannot defeat roulette in long term, valid ways are dealer signature or  physics based system..Maths cannot defeat