Question about a Dozen
I wondering if someone has the stats for the average hit ratio for one sleeping dozen.
For example, Lee Tutor says wait for two dozen to hit seven times then bet the sleeping dozen five times and you have a 99% probability.
But I also remember reading that the average is two dozen hitting five times in a row and then start betting the sleeping dozen.
I would like to read the classical methods based on this methodology and see what others say.
If you have such a system or can give me a link I would be very grateful.
Many thanks, Patrik From Sweden
Double Dozens in a row over 1 million spins can occur up to 32 times!
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Quote from: ego on Dec 07, 08:18 AM 2019
Question about a Dozen
I wondering if someone has the stats for the average hit ratio for one sleeping dozen.
For example, Lee Tutor says wait for two dozen to hit seven times then bet the sleeping dozen five times and you have a 99% probability.
But I also remember reading that the average is two dozen hitting five times in a row and then start betting the sleeping dozen.
I would like to read the classical methods based on this methodology and see what others say.
If you have such a system or can give me a link I would be very grateful.
Many thanks, Patrik From Sweden
If you want the average, use maths:
Chances of hitting: 12/37
Not hitting: 25/37
Spins to hit: 37/12 or 3.0833333 spins to hit.
But this is an average. It does not account for extremes...
Bigroben thanks - I understand - but math and probability do not show the true values and i can explain - when you simulate several million trails the math and probability is correct - but I will not play for million trails and will be playing in the short run where there are variance and fluctuation and give other results then expectation.
I try to explain with more details, one single number has the odds 1 in 37 and 50% probability to show once in 25 attempts using binomial probability - both are correct and based upon math and probability calculations.
But I can show real casino results from real wheel with 1000 trail sample that one number has 50% probability to hit once with 16 attempts.
And I can chart the variance and fluctuation behavior when and where the single number hit.
This makes it pretty simple to know when to enter and exit a trade on one single number.
You larger and your more trails I collect will make the estimation less accurate and will drift toward once in 25 attempts with 50% probability.
This means that the median/average value not necessary need to be the same as math and probability dictate.
If this is a fallacy you might explain where the false positive are.
Cheers
Quote from: ego on Dec 07, 08:18 AM 2019
I wondering if someone has the stats for the average hit ratio for one sleeping dozen.
Question was about the average. Average is different than the median or distribution stats. But I get what you mean.
What was the question? !!!