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Roulette-focused => General Discussion => Topic started by: RP501 on Mar 23, 03:14 AM 2020

Title: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: RP501 on Mar 23, 03:14 AM 2020
Got that "odds" calculation here (single zero):  casino-games-online.biz/roulette/record-series.html

But this was "fun mode" online RNG roulette at:  aurumage.com

Number 8 hit 6 times in-a-row:
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Mar 23, 03:24 AM 2020
Did you know the odds are exactly the same for this sequence?:

4,32,0,18,16,22

Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: RP501 on Mar 23, 03:32 AM 2020
Quote from: Steve on Mar 23, 03:24 AM 2020Did you know the odds are exactly the same for this sequence?:

4,32,0,18,16,22

Interesting  8)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: ati on Mar 23, 06:25 AM 2020
That's a very rare event. The most I have seen during my plays was four in a row.

It's random, so anything can happen. :) I often check the local lottery results to see the various random sequences they draw. It can be quite interesting at times, like when out of 45 numbers they draw four consecutive numbers like 20,21,22,23 or sequences like 6,16,26,36

Quote from: Steve on Mar 23, 03:24 AM 2020
Did you know the odds are exactly the same for this sequence?:

4,32,0,18,16,22

You are correct, because before each individual spins you have the exact same odds for all numbers, but some people say the odds are not the same for seeing six different numbers in a row, and seeing six repeats in a row. I can't do the math, so I can't prove it.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 23, 08:32 AM 2020
Quote from: ati on Mar 23, 06:25 AM 2020You are correct, because before each individual spins you have the exact same odds for all numbers, but some people say the odds are not the same for seeing six different numbers in a row, and seeing six repeats in a row

That's right. It depends on your point of view. In terms of the number of repeats the probabilities are very different. For six spins there is a 65% chance that the numbers will all be different, which obviously is far higher than getting 6 of one number in a row, so to say the odds are the same is misleading.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Mar 23, 11:56 PM 2020
Quote from: ati on Mar 23, 06:25 AM 2020You are correct, because before each individual spins you have the exact same odds for all numbers, but some people say the odds are not the same for seeing six different numbers in a row, and seeing six repeats in a row. I can't do the math, so I can't prove it.

For each and ever spin, the odds are 1 in 37. The wheel doesnt give a crap which number is which. It doesn't care of the numbers are 8,8,8,8,8,8 or any other sequence of numbers.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 04:43 AM 2020
That's misleading. By the binomial distribution the chance of getting six numbers in a row is far lower than getting six different numbers.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Mar 24, 05:31 AM 2020
Are you saying one sequence will happen more often than another?
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: ati on Mar 24, 05:50 AM 2020
No, you are both right, no point to argue.

Before the sequence happens you have a high chance of seeing 6 different random numbers, and an extremely low chance of seeing 6 repeats.

But if you say that the next sequence will be either 5,5,5,5,5,5 or 14,15,6,27,11,2 in this order, these two have the same chance to happen.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 06:56 AM 2020
Quote from: Joe on Mar 24, 04:43 AM 2020chance of getting six numbers in a row is far lower than getting six different numbers.
Chance in one or another case is the same 1/37*1/37*1/37*1/37*1/37*1/37 :).
Always think about two - will be much easier if just fall  4 what is the difference what we wait 4 or 14 - chance is the same !

  But next 4 will give sequence from two the same numbers and 14 will give a sequence of two different numbers :).

Joe, does not do such low school level mistakes... If you do not have some additional information - chances in every attempt for every number are the same no matter it is the same number as previous or different...

Only peoples who absolute not understand theory of probabilities think that after 5-5-5 - any other number than 5 have greater chances :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 07:02 AM 2020
It's easier to understand if you think about the difference between a combination and permutation. For instance, the sequence 7, 0, 16, 34, 16, 10 has one repeat, and the sequence 7, 0, 16, 16, 34, 10 has the same numbers but in a different order. There are other possible sequences which also have two of #16 and the same remaining numbers, so the combination is the same but the permutations are different. It's the same with even chances, so RRRRRR has the same chance as RBBRBR but the first has less chance than second because there are more ways that the second can occur if you allow the same number of reds and blacks but allow them to be distributed differently.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 07:03 AM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 06:56 AM 2020Joe, does not do such low school level mistakes... If you do not have some additional information - chances in every attempt for every number are the same no matter it is the same number as previous or different...

No, it's not a mistake. Read my previous post.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 07:09 AM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 06:56 AM 2020Only peoples who absolute not understand theory of probabilities think that after 5-5-5 - any other number than 5 have greater chances

But I'm not saying that. Of course the next number has chance 1/37, but the probability of a sequence of spins viewed as combination (order not taken into account) is not the same as a permutation (take order into account). I realize it can be confusing, but to deny this is to say that the binomial distribution is false.  ;)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:10 AM 2020
Quote from: Joe on Mar 24, 07:02 AM 2020For instance, the sequence 7, 0, 16, 34, 16, 10 has one repeat, and the sequence 7, 0, 16, 16, 34, 10 has the same numbers but in a different order.
But if we wait for concrete sequence so after 7, 0, 16, here you must choose which number you wait for 34 or 16?
What you wrote are two different sequences but 5,5,5,5,5,5 are one sequence.
You cant compare the probability of one of two sequences with concrete one sequence.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 07:11 AM 2020
Quote from: Joe on Mar 24, 07:02 AM 2020so RRRRRR has the same chance as RBBRBR but the first has less chance than second because there are more ways that the second can occur if you allow the same number of reds and blacks but allow them to be distributed differently.

Sorry, I know this seems contradictory. What I mean is that combinations of sequences of the same length don't have the same probability, but permutations of sequences do.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:16 AM 2020
Joy can you solve this old task :)? It will open your eyes
It is a very old task. Two players decided to play dice game . They both throw dice and one wait dor sequence 6-6-6 , but another wait for exactly 4-5-6.
They do throws in order who will collect his sequence first - win.
Who will win ? Who have biger chances to win :) ?
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 07:17 AM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:10 AM 2020But if we wait for concrete sequence so after 7, 0, 16, here you must choose which number you wait for 34 or 16?
What you wrote are two different sequences but 5,5,5,5,5,5 are one sequence.
You cant compare the probability of one of two sequences with concrete one sequence.

But I'm not saying you should wait for any partial sequence and that the probability of the next number will be different from if you had chosen a difference sequence. Of course the probability of the next number is always 1/37.

But if you are considering only the numbers of repeats (and not the order they come in), the sequences don't have the same probability even though they have the same length.

It's easier to see this if you think about the even chances.

Probability of 2 reds in 6 spins is 23.4%
probability of 6 reds in 6 spins is 1.56%

I'm not saying that knowing this gives you any advantage.  ;)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:21 AM 2020
Quote from: Joe on Mar 24, 07:17 AM 2020But I'm not saying you should wait for any partial sequence
if we want to win on roulette we must bet on number( numbers ) which will hits concrete in this spin not later not earlier :)
Solve  task  which i wrote, I usually gave it to my pupils :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:23 AM 2020
Quote from: Joe on Mar 24, 07:17 AM 2020But if you are considering only the numbers of repeats (and not the order they come in),
For wining repeats not important - important order. I say - try to solve this task if you do not know it. Really it shows about what you arguing
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 07:38 AM 2020
Of course, because the rolls are independent, no player has the advantage over the other. 4-5-6 has the same probability as 6-6-6 because you're waiting for a specific sequence (permutation), but that's not what I'm arguing. Like I said, both answers are right when viewed from different perspectives.

Do you deny that

Probability of 2 reds in 6 spins is 23.4% and probability of 6 reds in 6 spins is 1.56% ?
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:50 AM 2020
Quote from: Joe on Mar 24, 07:38 AM 20204-5-6 has the same probability as 6-6-6 because you're waiting for a specific sequence (permutation)
So you say that these two players have equal chances to win ? This way you are absolutely not right.
Quote from: Joe on Mar 24, 07:38 AM 2020Do you deny that

Probability of 2 reds in 6 spins is 23.4% and probability of 6 reds in 6 spins is 1.56% ?
To calculate such simples cases can everybody, but to win - far not every !
I can't catch what is a hint about which you talk? I always talk about winings - other me not interest :)

I gave you task and looks that you cant it solve, but the task is super simply only you must think like player :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 07:54 AM 2020
Here's another way of thinking about it. Think about the OP again. If the odds of 8,8,8,8,8,8 were the same in every respect as Steve's example of 4,32,0,18,16,22, then nobody could distinguish a biased wheel from a fair one!

Because if every sequence of the same length had the same probability, then a sequence of 1000 #8's would be just as likely as a 'normal' sequence. Because that's an absurd scenario, it can't be true that the odds are the same.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Mar 24, 07:56 AM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:50 AM 2020So you say that these two players have equal chances to win ? This way you are absolutely not right.

Ok, show us the maths which proves it's not right.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:59 AM 2020
Quote from: Joe on Mar 24, 07:56 AM 2020Ok, show us the maths which proves it's not right.
I first say that it is not right, later I will explain and will give math. The task is maybe 6th class level, but must think as player... :) Try , without google help :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Mar 24, 08:02 AM 2020
It comes down to this. It's quite simple:

On the NEXT spin, there's a 1 in 37 chance of any specific number winning.

This is the fundamental fact about roulette everyone must keep in mind.

The only exception is if you change the odds, like with AP.


It means all the roundabout elaborate systems are no better than random bets. And all the elaborate betting progressions are equally worthless.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 08:53 AM 2020
Try all to solve this task, if not know the answer . You will show how good are you in games because this task has the nearest relationship with games :).
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 09:14 AM 2020
Look in google for a solution can everybody lets try to solve the task with own head :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Mar 24, 09:19 AM 2020
It's not more complicated than i already said. The problem is deluded perception.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 09:43 AM 2020
Quote from: Steve on Mar 24, 09:19 AM 2020It's not more complicated than i already said. The problem is deluded perception.
Something is related to this, but all task has a very simple and correct explanation. So in the task are some hint but explanations are very correct .
But this task is one of the best math tasks that are related to gambling.  Simply say which player will win in the long run...
Task, as I said, is about 6th class level maybe even lower :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: The General on Mar 24, 01:07 PM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 07:16 AM 2020
Joy can you solve this old task :)? It will open your eyes
It is a very old task. Two players decided to play dice game . They both throw dice and one wait dor sequence 6-6-6 , but another wait for exactly 4-5-6.
They do throws in order who will collect his sequence first - win.
Who will win ? Who have biger chances to win :) ?

I assume when you say a dice game that you're referring to the game of craps. 

There are more ways for the dice to add up to six than there are for the dice to add up to four. and there are more ways for the dice to add up to six than there are for the dice to add up to five.    The player that has to roll 6-6-6 will likely win first.

(link:s://:.bestcrapsstrategy.net/images/craps-payouts.jpg)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 01:29 PM 2020
Quote from: The General on Mar 24, 01:07 PM 2020I assume when you say a dice game that you're referring to the game of craps. 
No that is a simple game when players in order throw dice and wait till will fall their combination - which combination is first - that is winner.

For me is very strange that peoples related to gambling not know this old task. I thought that will know here all :)

I hope at least Monty Hall problem know all ? :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: maestro on Mar 24, 04:24 PM 2020
666 gets a bit longer
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 05:11 PM 2020
Want to hear something from few and will explain all... :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Nickmsi on Mar 24, 07:37 PM 2020
The person that throws the dice FIRST will have a better chance of winning.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 25, 06:36 AM 2020
No look after an equal amount of throws of course if one will throw 100 times but other 10 natural that 100 will win, but you not must be such dumbs to think this way... :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Bebediktus3 on Mar 25, 07:49 AM 2020
So as promised, I will explain this task.
Pitty but looks that peoples did not know that task and to solve by individual forces they cant...

So the task is who has better chances first to collect his sequence. Better chances to collect sequences have that, who collect sequences from three different numbers!
The easiest way to understand why that is, in my opinion, is this - say is starting position when both players hit his first number (666) hit 6 and (456) hit 4. Try to calculate how many numbers lead to success if say we have limit 4 throws at all.

This way (666) player after first hit 6 has only one successful next throw - that is 6, if he in the second throw hits another number he cant collect his winning combination till 4th throw.

Now, look at  player (456)  he after first hit 4  he has two numbers which still leed to possible win that is 5 and wining combination will be 456x, but also can win after hitting 4 this way wining combination will be 4456. So this player can win in two ways [456x;4456] but the player  (666) only in one way [666x]. And player (456) in the next three throws after the first successful have better chances.
This way we can increase the number of throws and see that always player (456) have slight better chances to be first who collect his combination.

So here is some hint that nobody payss attention to the the task - that winner is that who is first :)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: gorki on Mar 26, 11:42 AM 2020
Quote from: Steve on Mar 23, 11:56 PM 2020
For each and ever spin, the odds are 1 in 37. The wheel doesnt give a crap which number is which. It doesn't care of the numbers are 8,8,8,8,8,8 or any other sequence of numbers.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Logical life on Mar 27, 09:55 PM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 25, 07:49 AM 2020
So as promised, I will explain this task.
Pitty but looks that peoples did not know that task and to solve by individual forces they cant...

So the task is who has better chances first to collect his sequence. Better chances to collect sequences have that, who collect sequences from three different numbers!
The easiest way to understand why that is, in my opinion, is this - say is starting position when both players hit his first number (666) hit 6 and (456) hit 4. Try to calculate how many numbers lead to success if say we have limit 4 throws at all.

This way (666) player after first hit 6 has only one successful next throw - that is 6, if he in the second throw hits another number he cant collect his winning combination till 4th throw.

Now, look at  player (456)  he after first hit 4  he has two numbers which still leed to possible win that is 5 and wining combination will be 456x, but also can win after hitting 4 this way wining combination will be 4456. So this player can win in two ways [456x;4456] but the player  (666) only in one way [666x]. And player (456) in the next three throws after the first successful have better chances.
This way we can increase the number of throws and see that always player (456) have slight better chances to be first who collect his combination.

So here is some hint that nobody payss attention to the the task - that winner is that who is first :)
Interesting .....
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Troykit on Mar 27, 10:07 PM 2020
Has anyone ever tried playing with just one number and repeating it until it hits??
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Apr 03, 07:09 AM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 25, 07:49 AM 2020The easiest way to understand why that is, in my opinion, is this - say is starting position when both players hit his first number (666) hit 6 and (456) hit 4. Try to calculate how many numbers lead to success if say we have limit 4 throws at all.

This way (666) player after first hit 6 has only one successful next throw - that is 6, if he in the second throw hits another number he cant collect his winning combination till 4th throw.

Now, look at  player (456)  he after first hit 4  he has two numbers which still leed to possible win that is 5 and wining combination will be 456x, but also can win after hitting 4 this way wining combination will be 4456. So this player can win in two ways [456x;4456] but the player  (666) only in one way [666x]. And player (456) in the next three throws after the first successful have better chances.
This way we can increase the number of throws and see that always player (456) have slight better chances to be first who collect his combination.

This is a very counter-intuitive result. I haven't been able to find this exact problem online, although there is similar problem (problem 3 in the attached) which uses the same principle and shows the detailed maths.

Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: maestro on Apr 03, 07:58 AM 2020
page 43
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Apr 03, 08:23 AM 2020
Quote from: gorki on Mar 26, 11:42 AM 2020(link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=26857.0;attach=43122;image)

Incorrect. All those sequences happen the same amount of times. Don't believe me? Do lots of testing.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: maestro on Apr 03, 08:35 AM 2020
well to have 32 blacks is not that often :twisted: :twisted:<see second composition>
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Apr 03, 09:25 AM 2020
Are you still not understanding? Any sequence will happen the same amount of times. Forget this whole rate event thing. Its incorrect. Anyone can do the simple testing.

Then when they catch up and prove to themselves what professionals already proved, they can stop reinventing broken wheels, and focus on NEW things.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: maestro on Apr 03, 11:06 AM 2020
 :twisted: i see you are still in stone age...never mind every age has its own pluses :twisted: :twisted:
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Apr 03, 11:38 AM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 24, 09:43 AM 2020But this task is one of the best math tasks that are related to gambling.  Simply say which player will win in the long run...

I don't think you've been very clear in describing the problem, because your english isn't great. If one player bets for the sequence 4-5-6 and the other player bets for 6-6-6 it doesn't mean that the first player will win in the long run, assuming there was such a game. In fact it applies equally to roulette, and betting for #4 followed by #5 followed by #6 won't give you an advantage over betting for 3 consecutive #6's.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Apr 03, 11:44 AM 2020
Are you serious?

Do the testing.

Who's in the stone age?
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: gorki on Apr 03, 01:29 PM 2020
Quote from: Steve on Apr 03, 08:23 AM 2020Incorrect. All those sequences happen the same amount of times. Don't believe me? Do lots of testing.
show me a string of 32 black (or any EC) on live roulette and even rng
i will show you that the last 16 ec is repeated 13,14,15,16 times (32 spins in total) even on live roulette and "relatively" often

I have never seen 32 ec repetitions, not even on 145 000 live spins
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Apr 04, 02:19 AM 2020
Gorki, choose any sequence of 32 spins. Then see how long it takes to repeat. Its exactly the same as any other sequence.

Learn. It is so old. Its classic fallacy. Understand what im saying. It's not opinion. Its fact.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: huskerdu on Apr 04, 02:10 PM 2020
the odds of coming six same numbers in a row is : 1 / (37*37*37*37*37) = 1 / 69,343,957
So it is a mistake saying the generic theory that roylette don't see thew previous numbers so in every spin we have 1/37 chances to come up a number.
Yes it is 1/37 for every spin, but to come up specific numbers in six spins the statistics are : 1 / 69,343,957
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Apr 04, 05:34 PM 2020
Husker exactly what are you saying?

Are you saying some sequences are more likely?
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: huskerdu on Apr 08, 02:04 AM 2020
Quote from: Steve on Apr 04, 05:34 PM 2020
Husker exactly what are you saying?

Are you saying some sequences are more likely?

The propability for specific numbers to come in a row is different from the propability for  any other random numbers from the rest of roulette numbers to come.
Lets say number 8 comes. The propability to come another nr. 8 is 1/37. But the propability to come any other number except 8 is 36/37. So we have 2,7% chances to come another 8 after the first 8 and  97,3% chances to come any other number except 8.
Lets say that two numbers 8 have come in a row. The propability for a third nr.8 in a row to come is 1/ (37*37) = 1/1.369  (0,073%). The propability for any other nr to come except 8 is 99,927.
And so on.....
So we may say that theoritically in every roulette has no memory, we may say that in every spin any number has a 1/37 propability to come, but there ara also statistics which give us different propabilities based on previeus spins.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Apr 08, 02:31 AM 2020
Quote from: huskerdu on Apr 08, 02:04 AM 2020Lets say number 8 comes. The propability to come another nr. 8 is 1/37. But the propability to come any other number except 8 is 36/37

If the probability of the next number is still 1 in 37, then WHY do you exclude previous numbers from spinning next?

The wheel doesnt give a crap what numbers you want to exclude and why. It doesn't care about your reasoning or expectations.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Apr 08, 04:38 AM 2020
Quote from: Steve on Apr 08, 02:31 AM 2020If the probability of the next number is still 1 in 37, then WHY do you exclude previous numbers from spinning next?

He's not excluding any numbers, but IF a number is going to hit multiple times in a row, then it must mean that other numbers can't hit. That's just the logic needed to get the calculations correct.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: maestro on Apr 08, 04:44 AM 2020
QuoteIt doesn't care about your reasoning or expectations.

it does...else would keep banging number 8 all day long... :twisted: :twisted:
told you  to come out of the cave
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: huskerdu on Apr 08, 07:04 AM 2020
Let's do some.maths.
The propability to come Black or Red in the first spin is 1/2  (50%.)
Let's say RED comes.
In the next spin, the propability to  come Black or Red is again 1/2 (50%).
But the propability to come e.g.  RED after RED is 1/4 because of this reason:
For two spins all the combinations are RB, RR, BR, BB. So we have 1/4 of chances to come a RR.
So maybe for the second spin by itself the chances of the RED to come is 1/2 but the chances to come RED after RED are 1/4 (25%).
For 3 spins we have the combinations:
RRR, RRB, RBB, RBR, BRR, BBR, BBB, BRB,.
So for 3 spins we have 1/8 (12,5%) chances for the RRR to come.
So maybe for the third spin by itself the chances of the RED to come is 1/2 but the chances to come RED after two REDs are 1/8 (12,5%).
And so on..... for the next spins dor the RED to continue coming the propabilities are 1/16, 1/32, 1/64, 1/128, 1/256, 1/512 .....
So think of,  instead of Black and Red to have one number against the rest of the numbers...
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Richard Meisel on Apr 08, 02:42 PM 2020
Oh, just checking my post
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Richard Meisel on Apr 08, 03:02 PM 2020
Mixing 2 probabilities. After 2 consecutive REDS, if you take 3 as the unit, the chances are 1/8. But the real Odds of RED hitting on the 3rd Spins is 18/38 on the American wheel and 18/37 on the European. Just to add: on the American 38 number wheel the number of possibilities after 38 Spins is 2 to the power of 38 which is 274,877,906,944 and on the European 37 number wheel the number of possibilities is 2 to the power of 37 is 137,438,953,472. These are very big numbers, in the trillions. So mathematically the real Odds of getting, for instance, 37 or 38 consecutive REDS is the same as any other 37 or 38 number. This is why I don't trust in counting Hits and Rehits and 12-14 Doubles in 42 Spins and the like. I prefer running a progression on the so called Even bets, winning about 80 per cent, losing 1 and Winning 4.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Apr 08, 08:56 PM 2020
If your theories were correct and had value, you'd be winning fortunes. But you're not. "The proof is in the pudding".

Enough said.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Richard Meisel on Apr 08, 11:21 PM 2020
Don't know you, Steve. I'm new to the forum. Be nice. Is Martin Silverthorne a part of this forum? I took his Super Neural Strategy and tweaked his Betting Progression and changed his Targets and his Betting scheme, and am Winning around 80 per cent. I'm using a random generator which I don't really trust and can't wait to get to Vegas as you can't play craps and roulette in Arizona. If you reply to this, please be nicer with your comments and please don't take this as personal.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Steve on Apr 08, 11:38 PM 2020
No he has nothing to do with here. You can do your own testing and make up your own mind about his approaches.

You're new here. I'm been trying to teach people Earth isn't flat, for decades. If I come across as blunt, it's because even with the truth in their faces, people still stare at the horizon saying "See, it's FLAT".
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: RP501 on Apr 09, 12:53 AM 2020
Quote from: Richard Meisel on Apr 08, 11:21 PM 2020Is Martin Silverthorne a part of this forum? I took his Super Neural Strategy and tweaked his Betting Progression and changed his Targets and his Betting scheme, and am Winning around 80 per cent.

I've bought a couple of Silverthorne's Systems.  They're basically "hit & run" methods, meaning you can make money when it's working, then when it doesn't work, you'll lose your bankroll. So obviously it's a short-term method, but most all roulette systems out there are basically short-term, meaning you will eventually lose in the long run.  If you're serious about winning in a more realistic manner, you should invest in getting  the Roulette Xtreme roulette software for professional players --  :.uxsoftware.com

I wouldn't dare use real money with Silverthorne's method until you've tested it with Roulette Xtreme with at least 50,000 spins minimum. But 1-million spins seems to the consensus, but in my opinion that's a bit too much.  After all, who in their Life-time will play 1 million Roulette spins -- At 60 spins per hour, that's a whopping 16,666 hours of play!!!

But if you insist, don't bother going to Vegas. There's "live wheel" Roulette online, you can practice here:  :.liveroulette.ie

And use real money with PayPal here, no ID verification needed, U.S. players welcome. You can start with .10 cent chips!:  :.club.liveroulette.ie

GOOD LUCK!!!  ;-)


Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Richard Meisel on Apr 09, 01:52 PM 2020
Thank you for your very nice reply. It took a long time for me to be a nice guy. I do realize that my revised Super Neural Strategy loses in the long run. It's impossible to figure out a system to win at craps and roulette when every bet has a house vig. You can put $100 on 35 numbers on a European wheel and win $100 35 out of 38 spins, for a 94% chance of winning, but that 1 loss! Even in craps I have a bet that wins 33/36 and one that wins 34/36. I even have a bet that wins 35/36!, a whopping 97%!, but this last bet you have to put up 100 times what you win. These bets do ok with one roll only, but are too risky. That's why I prefer a progression on the Even/Odd bet with roulette. Thank you for the info. I don't trust online casinos and random generators.  One last story you might like. A few years ago I went to Vegas to a $50,000 craps tournament, winners winning a lot of money. They gave us all $50,000 in play chips and the total time for the game was one hour. I used up almost all of my chips betting on the 5,6,8, Field, Lay4, and Hard4. Every number wins a few thousand dollars. Every number but the Easy4 which only comes up 2 out of 36 rolls! The dealer rolls, and he rolls an Easy4! Ouch! Have a happy Passover.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: RP501 on Apr 09, 04:06 PM 2020
Quote from: Richard Meisel on Apr 09, 01:52 PM 2020That's why I prefer a progression on the Even/Odd bet with roulette.

Good Luck with that!  Casino's know better, so they make their Table Limits low enough to nullify any sort of progression.  Have a Good One and Be Safe!   ;)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Richard Meisel on Apr 09, 04:41 PM 2020
Yes, that is why I use a progression that has Stops and don't go anywhere near a table limit.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: RP501 on Apr 09, 04:53 PM 2020
Quote from: Richard Meisel on Apr 09, 04:41 PM 2020Yes, that is why I use a progression that has Stops and don't go anywhere near a table limit.

Your Method can be working for a long time, but you have to know that at any moment, it will fail. Professionals in the past have Systems that can work for a whole year, then the unexpected happens, their System goes bust!  Have fun while it lasts! And always remember the basic "rule of thumb" -- Never bet more than you can afford to lose!  8)
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Richard Meisel on Apr 10, 02:09 AM 2020
Nice advice.
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Joe on Apr 18, 11:07 AM 2020
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Mar 25, 07:49 AM 2020So the task is who has better chances first to collect his sequence. Better chances to collect sequences have that, who collect sequences from three different numbers!

I confirmed that this is the case with a simulation. The program asks for a pattern of 3 (numbers 1-6, corresponding to dice roll outcomes) and then generates the random outcomes. There is a fixed outcome window of 3 (so when a number is added the first in the sequence is removed) and the number of spins it takes for the pattern to come up is recorded. This is repeated half a million times and then the average is calculated. The results are very stable because of the large sample size.

On average it takes about 20% more spins to get 3 numbers all the same than if all the numbers are different :

Processing pattern 456...
Average rolls until pattern is 456 = 216

Processing pattern 666...
Average rolls until pattern is 666 = 258


Try for yourself using different patterns. e.g. a pattern XYX takes a little longer to appear than XYZ. The $64k question is : do these statistical results have any implications for roulette systems?
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: Maate on Apr 19, 02:06 AM 2020
I see how you would think that the odds of a number hitting 6 times in a row is 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS, but that is only the odds of that specific number hitting 6 times in a row. The odds of any of the 37 hitting in a row is 37^5 = 69343957 to 1. This is because when a spin comes out and a new number comes out, you start the calculation from there. If the ball spins, the odds of any specific number coming out is 37^6. But once each number comes out of each spin, whatever that number is the odds of getting six of it are only 37^5 now aren't they. Because whatever number just came out last, you only need 5 of them now
Title: Re: 2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!
Post by: maestro on Apr 19, 07:52 AM 2020
QuoteI confirmed that this is the case with a simulation. The program asks for a pattern of 3 (numbers 1-6, corresponding to dice roll outcomes) and then generates the random outcomes. There is a fixed outcome window of 3 (so when a number is added the first in the sequence is removed) and the number of spins it takes for the pattern to come up is recorded. This is repeated half a million times and then the average is calculated. The results are very stable because of the large sample size.

On average it takes about 20% more spins to get 3 numbers all the same than if all the numbers are different :


Thx Joe...good work :thumbsup: