A number has a 1/38 chance of coming up, so how do you explain that in a 100 million trials, 25 unique numbers in a row did not come up without a repeat? The wheel has no memory, but when you put the historical events together, it forms a clear picture that the wheel obeys.
It's very basic probability. Given enough spins, it will happen. But that's missing the point. It's all probability vs payout.
Betting against rare events never works.
Roulette doesn't have memory, but past can give clues to future. But not in the way you're suggesting.
Quote from: Steve on May 22, 06:18 PM 2021
It's very basic probability. Given enough spins, it will happen. But that's missing the point. It's all probability vs payout.
Betting against rare events never works.
Roulette doesn't have memory, but past can give clues to future. But not in the way you're suggesting.
When the event is so rare, you can assume a zero chance. I don't think that it happens in a pattern, I can clearly see that it happens. There is about a 3% chance that more than 15 unique numbers will come up without a repeat and about 1% after 17 and 0% after 25.
So you are dealing with 15 spins to win 97% of the time.
Anyway, that is what I was thinking about, but you said the past gives clues to the future, but not in the way I am thinking. Can you explain what you mean by the past giving clues to the future?
Quote from: FreeRoulette on May 22, 06:51 PM 2021When the event is so rare, you can assume a zero chance.
You're still missing the point. It's all probability vs payout.
Maybe roulette wheel has no memory but
the random numbers that it creates obey to the rules of statistics.
Let's explain itLet's say nr.8 comes at the first spin. The propability for nr.8 to repeat at the second spin is 1/37 ( 2,7%) amd the propability for any other number except 8 to come out is 36/37 (97,3%)
The propability for the nr.8 to come out at the second AND at the third spin (three nr. 8 in a row) is 1/ (37*37) = 1/1.369 (0,073%)
And so on.....
So we may say that roulette has no memory, and in every spin any number has the same 1/37 propability to come out, but there are also statistics which give us different propabilities based on previous ourcomes.
Random numbers means that there is no rule that can predict which number will appear in every spin.
But also random numbers obey to statistics.
On the long run statistics rule.
Theoretically we can see 37 unique numbers in 37 spins without any repeater, because "roulette jas no memory" but the propability for this to happen is one to trillions of zillions.....
Quote from: Steve on May 22, 07:27 PM 2021
You're still missing the point. It's all probability vs payout.
Are you saying the rare loss will wipe out all your winnings no matter how you play it? Even if you skip some spins to start with and play outside and inside bets along the way?
uniques chance per total
2 2.63% 2.63%
3 5.12% 7.75%
4 7.27% 15.02%
5 8.94% 23.96%
6 10.00% 33.96%
7 10.43% 44.39%
8 10.24% 54.63%
9 9.56% 64.19%
10 8.48% 72.67%
11 7.19% 79.86%
12 5.81% 85.67%
13 4.52% 90.19%
14 3.36% 93.55%
15 2.37% 95.92%
16 1.60% 97.52%
17 1.04% 98.56%
18 0.64% 99.20%
19 0.37% 99.57%
20 0.21% 99.78%
21 0.11% 99.89%
22 0.05% 99.94%
23 0.02% 99.96%
24 0.01% 99.97%
25 0.01% 99.98%
Quote from: huskerdu on May 22, 07:48 PM 2021
Maybe roulette wheel has no memory but
the random numbers that it creates obey to the rules of statistics.
Let's explain itLet's say nr.8 comes at the first spin. The propability for nr.8 to repeat at the second spin is 1/37 ( 2,7%) amd the propability for any other number except 8 to come out is 36/37 (97,3%)
The propability for the nr.8 to come out at the second AND at the third spin (three nr. 8 in a row) is 1/ (37*37) = 1/1.369 (0,073%)
And so on.....
So we may say that roulette has no memory, and in every spin any number has the same 1/37 propability to come out, but there are also statistics which give us different propabilities based on previous ourcomes.
Random numbers means that there is no rule that can predict which number will appear in every spin.
But also random numbers obey to statistics.
On the long run statistics rule.
Theoretically we can see 37 unique numbers in 37 spins without any repeater, because "roulette jas no memory" but the propability for this to happen is one to trillions of zillions.....
There’s also the probability the ball flies off the wheel on the next spin, they decide to close the wheel for cleaning/maintenance or an earthquake happens so gotta factor that into your calculations too
Quote from: Turkish4 on May 22, 10:28 PM 2021
There’s also the probability the ball flies off the wheel on the next spin, they decide to close the wheel for cleaning/maintenance or an earthquake happens so gotta factor that into your calculations too
You have a point and the casino can also cheat, which is more likely.
It would cost $604 to get through 15 unique numbers if you started at 6 unique numbers. Seems decent for a quick hit and run.
Unique Bet
6 1
7 1
8 1
9 1
10 2
11 3
12 4
13 6
14 10
15 17
Quote from: FreeRoulette on May 22, 09:35 PM 2021Are you saying the rare loss will wipe out all your winnings no matter how you play it?
That's true, but it's not exactly what im saying.
Im saying your bankroll will be wiped out, one way or another. If it's not the rare event, it'll be something like reaching table limit, and your progression fails - then you're screwed.
Progression doesn't fix poor bet selection with random accuracy.
im saying forget the rare event crap. It doesn't work. Because after all the elaborate tracking and crap, you're still stuck with unfair payouts.
In the simplest terms there are 37 pockets, but the payout is an unfair 35-1.
This is the fundamental fact almost everyone doesn't fully understand, because they're stuck on delusions like streaks, rare events, the must happens, etc.
table limit can be avoided in a simple way, multiple account on different bookmakers that offer the same roulette table.
the system can work if you established a stop win and respect it.
Quote from: gianfrancopierino on May 23, 04:48 AM 2021table limit can be avoided in a simple way, multiple account on different bookmakers that offer the same roulette table.
It doesn't work for the same reasons i explained.
Quote from: gianfrancopierino on May 23, 04:48 AM 2021the system can work if you established a stop win and respect it
No. That doesn't work either.
If you start betting later, then your bet amount is less when the sequence gets long. But if you bet earlier, you seem to win more.
I'm still fiddling to find that balance. Maybe if the sequence gets too large, then I don't increase the bet to make a profit, but reduce it just to recoup some loss. But then, if it gets up to 15 numbers, the last 6-8 numbers that came up should have 10% chance to hit. So maybe betting just those would work out after it gets to 10 in length.
loothog.com/Systems/playrepeat/repeats.html
Quote from: FreeRoulette on May 26, 04:55 PM 2021I'm still fiddling to find that balance.
You're going to find that balance impossible. Because no matter what your tweak is, you'll always eventually lose a bit more that you win.
Why has been explained many times.
The only way to consistently win is by increasing accuracy of predictions, to be better than random.
How? Well how would you predict where the ball lands? Does the steak of reds, or odds help?
Steve,
You are continually repeating the same thing : increase accuracy!
Sorry but that’s too vague for most of people here, perhaps you should reveal some practical approaches in order to increase accuracy, I am sure you would immediately say physics is the way to go!
I don’t want to disappoint you but physics approaches are too difficult to implement nowadays, why ?
Simply because casino are imposing tight restrictions on the roulette table, anyway perhaps we should expand our way of thinking And try new approaches, one of the most solid approach in this regard is the so called (reinforcement learning)... I could recently gather some evidences that it could beat the game, the only thing is that it needs special programming skill, unfortunately the majority of people lack it
Quote from: Roulettebeater on May 27, 05:30 AM 2021You are continually repeating the same thing : increase accuracy!
Should simple truth change?
Quote from: Roulettebeater on May 27, 05:30 AM 2021Sorry but that’s too vague for most of people here
For vague people, yes. For others, it's pretty clear. I've also gone into detail many, many times. And still vague people don't get it.
Quote from: Roulettebeater on May 27, 05:30 AM 2021I am sure you would immediately say physics is the way to go!
It's one way. The obvious way. What else determines the winning number? Voodoo? Streaks? Numerology?
I've also explained other possibilities in detail.
Quote from: Roulettebeater on May 27, 05:30 AM 2021I don’t want to disappoint you but physics approaches are too difficult to implement nowadays, why ?
Simply because casino are imposing tight restrictions on the roulette table
Nonsense. Almost every wheel can still be beaten with one or another physics approach.
Quote from: Roulettebeater on May 27, 05:30 AM 2021And try new approaches
I say it often. People don't listen.
Quote from: Roulettebeater on May 27, 05:30 AM 2021one of the most solid approach in this regard is the so called (reinforcement learning)... I could recently gather some evidences that it could beat the game, the only thing is that it needs special programming skill, unfortunately the majority of people lack it
Reinforcement learning? What's that technique as it pertains to roulette?
Either way, most people don't even understand basics. That's where they need to focus, as boring as it is.
Quote from: Steve on May 27, 05:40 AM 2021
Should simple truth change?
For vague people, yes. For others, it's pretty clear. I've also gone into detail many, many times. And still vague people don't get it.
It's one way. The obvious way. What else determines the winning number? Voodoo? Streaks? Numerology?
I've also explained other possibilities in detail.
Nonsense. Almost every wheel can still be beaten with one or another physics approach.
I say it often. People don't listen.
Reinforcement learning? What's that technique as it pertains to roulette?
Either way, most people don't even understand basics. That's where they need to focus, as boring as it is.
RL is like teaching a software agent how to behave in an environment by telling it how good it’s doing, it’s an area of machine learning inspired by behaviorist psychology
A form of machine learning is how i developed one of my systems. I've written lots about it and what I found. Many times ive left software running for long periods to see what it found. I even published a very rudimentary version of it free.
Basically it correlates variables with spin outcomes to find statistically significant anomalies to exploit.
Quote from: Steve on May 27, 06:32 AM 2021
A form of machine learning is how i developed one of my systems. I've written lots about it and what I found. Many times ive left software running for long periods to see what it found. I even published a very rudimentary version of it free.
Basically it correlates variables with spin outcomes to find statistically significant anomalies to exploit.
Steve can you put here link with your tests and results please?
What abt the premise previous outcomes don't matter.
That said one bet is no better than another.
Quote from: Steve on May 27, 06:32 AM 2021
A form of machine learning is how i developed one of my systems. I've written lots about it and what I found. Many times ive left software running for long periods to see what it found. I even published a very rudimentary version of it free.
Basically it correlates variables with spin outcomes to find statistically significant anomalies to exploit.
If the AI that plays Go, were to play roulette, I wonder if the best outcome would be not to play. If you forced it to play, would it only do the minimum bet on one number only once and stop? Lets say you give it $1,000 that it has to play to maximize the profits. Would it blow its wad on one spin?
I would be interested in what your machine learning algorithm did.
With all respect to your contribution but RL is not same as simple machine learning, RL is an adapted technique which allows the agent to adjust its decisions regularly based on the data flow
loothog.com/Systems/repeat2/repeats.html
Quote from: FreeRoulette on May 29, 06:20 PM 2021
loothog.com/Systems/repeat2/repeats.html
Has anyone tried to have each step have its own progression? When I get time, I will make a program to keep track of 25 progressions at once. It might only reach 25 once, but you only be out $25 if it missed, then 50 if it missed the second time, if it ever reached 25 uniques again.